Given I was a tipper of Trump in 2020 and said so repeatedly on here (despite desperately opposing that outcome) it would be weird indeed for me to back a Dem win in Alaska.
A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
I'd have thought Le Pen would do well in those cities.
Le Pen does well in few cities - there is a strong urban-rural divide affecting RN in most of France, except the north, plus the cities tend to vote left or centre in general. One of the main reasons being the wide dispersion of French universities across many cities. However, the south does indeed have a lot of prosperous cities that lean more right. However, they tend to be rare pro-Macron bastions, and actually Nice and Toulon are two of the few large cities governed by allies of the president, albeit part of Philippe's mini-party and not LREM.
A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
I'd have thought Le Pen would do well in those cities.
Le Pen does well in few cities - there is a strong urban-rural divide affecting RN in most of France, except the north, plus the cities tend to vote left or centre in general. One of the main reasons being the wide dispersion of French universities across many cities. However, the south does indeed have a lot of prosperous cities that lean more right. However, they tend to be rare pro-Macron bastions, and actually Nice and Toulon are two of the few large cities governed by allies of the president, albeit part of Philippe's mini-party and not LREM.
I might be misremembering, but I thought that both Marseilles and Toulon had voted in FN linked Mayors in the past.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right. I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Territoire de Belfort 2017: Macron 58.2% 2022: Macron 51.4%
Have always been fascinated by existence of this administrative oddity:
Wikipedia -
The administrative district Territoire de Belfort was created under the terms of the 1871 Treaty of Frankfurt. The German Empire annexed almost all of Alsace, but the French were able to negotiate retention of the Territoire de Belfort which thereby was separated from the rest of Alsace (where it had been part of the department of Haut-Rhin). There were three principal reasons for this exceptional treatment:
The population in and around Belfort was French-speaking. Belfort had demonstrated heroic resistance, under Colonel Pierre Denfert-Rochereau, to the German invasion. Belfort's left-wing Catholic Deputy Émile Keller now conducted a similarly forceful political campaign in the National Assembly. He argued that ceding heroic Belfort to Germany after the war would be unthinkable.
Since Belfort is situated in a relatively flat passage between the Vosges and Jura mountain ranges (known as the Belfort Gap), the Germans agreed to leave the city in France, because the Prussian military officers indicated that this strategy would give Germany a more defensible border.[2] After retaining its unique status as a territoire for just over half a century, Belfort was officially recognized as France's 90th department in 1922. France had recovered Alsace three years earlier, but the decision was taken not to reintegrate Belfort into its former department. There was talk of giving it a new departmental name, with suggestions that included "Savoureuse" (after the main river of the new department) or "Mont-Terrible" (the name of a former Napoleonic department embracing parts of Switzerland), but there was no consensus for a name change and the department continues to be known as the Territoire de Belfort.
When the regions of France were created, Belfort was not included in the region of Alsace, but the adjacent region of Franche-Comté, since January 2016 Bourgogne-Franche-Comté.
What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right. I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
Sure, if they involve naked dwarves serving up cocaine, and group sex, that may be problematic for Johnson, but not otherwise.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Hence my comment, I held the door so it didn't slam his butt on the way out....too subtle?
What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right. I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
Sure, if they involve naked dwarves serving up cocaine, and group sex, that may be problematic for Johnson, but not otherwise.
Did you have an address for this club....asking for a tory minister
What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right. I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
Sure, if they involve naked dwarves serving up cocaine, and group sex, that may be problematic for Johnson, but not otherwise.
Did you have an address for this club....asking for a tory minister
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
No, sorry, not the case. He doesn't actually have any discernible views, for starters, is genuinely too stupid to distinguish between wants to happen and expects to happen, and gets pleasure from moronically insinuating that posters are fascist sympathisers when they are not. A thoroughly nasty piece of work. Farewell he.
An election which the polls and betting markets got right from the start. Like others, I was hoping (and betting) that Macron would surprise on the upside and win by a bigger margin.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
I'd have thought Le Pen would do well in those cities.
Le Pen does well in few cities - there is a strong urban-rural divide affecting RN in most of France, except the north, plus the cities tend to vote left or centre in general. One of the main reasons being the wide dispersion of French universities across many cities. However, the south does indeed have a lot of prosperous cities that lean more right. However, they tend to be rare pro-Macron bastions, and actually Nice and Toulon are two of the few large cities governed by allies of the president, albeit part of Philippe's mini-party and not LREM.
I might be misremembering, but I thought that both Marseilles and Toulon had voted in FN linked Mayors in the past.
I don't remember those cities specifically across the decades, I am more talking about the current dispensation which as in other countries involves a stronger urban-rural polarity than previously held. I do remember that during the rise of Le Pen the 1st, there was a lot of controversy about the centre-right parties cooperating with the FN in votes like leadership of regional councils, which to my memory ended with several cases of cooperation. I can easily believe that in the south-east there were many cases where mayors were somehow linked to the FN through alliances.
for purposes of comparison - US Presidential Popular-Vote Landslides since 1900
1964: Lyndon B Johnson 61.1% 1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 60.8% 1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7% 1920: Warren G Harding 60.3% 1984: Ronald Reagan 58.8% 1928: Herbert Hoover 58.2% 1932: Franklin D Roosevelt 57.4% 1956: Dwight D Eisenhower 57.4% 1904: Theodore Roosevelt 56.4% 1952: Dwight D Eisenhower 55.2%
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
For a second I thought the explosive story was Macron intending to reunite France - I was worried he'd gone immediately Putinesque and wants to reunite some part that is no longer part of France proper.
For a second I thought the explosive story was Macron intending to reunite France - I was worried he'd gone immediately Putinesque and wants to reunite some part that is no longer part of France proper.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
I've not followed the argument (and being on holiday I'm going to cop out from trying to), but I'm against the abuse anyway (and my usual rule is to assume that abusers are always factually wrong). You've always struck me as a helpful poster who puts his views reasonably, and I'd be sorry if a couple of random anonymous people shouting at you drove you away. You'll give them a sense of achievement if you do - surely a bad thing? Do ignore them and carry on posting.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
for purposes of comparison - US Presidential Popular-Vote Landslides since 1900
1964: Lyndon B Johnson 61.1% 1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 60.8% 1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7% 1920: Warren G Harding 60.3% 1984: Ronald Reagan 58.8% 1928: Herbert Hoover 58.2% 1932: Franklin D Roosevelt 57.4% 1956: Dwight D Eisenhower 57.4% 1904: Theodore Roosevelt 56.4% 1952: Dwight D Eisenhower 55.2%
With the second (?) largest difference between the two main parties being in the three way election of 1924:
French Presidential 2nd-Round Winning Percentages since 1965
1965: Charles de Gaulle 55.2% 1969: Georges Pompidou 58.2% 1974: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing 50.8% 1981: François Mitterrand 51.8% 1981: François Mitterrand 54.0% 1995: Jacques Chirac 52.6% 2002: Jacques Chirac 82.2% 2007: Nicolas Sarkozy 53.1% 2012: François Hollande 51.6% 2017: Emmanuel Macron 66.1%
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Olly. Hang around. There's a shortage of Lib Dems on here. Don't take the insults seriously. He'll be sober by the morning
For a second I thought the explosive story was Macron intending to reunite France - I was worried he'd gone immediately Putinesque and wants to reunite some part that is no longer part of France proper.
There was a great French comedian who used to introduce his monologues with "Françaises, Français, Belges, Belges".
"1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7%" No wonder they called him "Tricky Dick", winning the presidency in an off year, before he had turned 35, the legal age limit for the presidency.
Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.
Le Pen leads the Bouche-du-Rhone partial results with 52% but still 37% of B-d-R to be counted (ie the 6 Marseilles districts) according to the Interior Ministry.
Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
Personally, I Ignore Ishmael. He has a long history of picking fights with people on PB. He’s a deeply unpleasant poster.
Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.
Le Pen leads the Bouche-du-Rhone partial results with 52% but still 37% of B-d-R to be counted (ie the 6 Marseilles districts) according to the Interior Ministry.
Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.
As I said a bit earlier it'll be interesting to see if any age groups preferred Le Pen over Macron.
for purposes of comparison - US Presidential Popular-Vote Landslides since 1900
1964: Lyndon B Johnson 61.1% 1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 60.8% 1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7% 1920: Warren G Harding 60.3% 1984: Ronald Reagan 58.8% 1928: Herbert Hoover 58.2% 1932: Franklin D Roosevelt 57.4% 1956: Dwight D Eisenhower 57.4% 1904: Theodore Roosevelt 56.4% 1952: Dwight D Eisenhower 55.2%
With the second (?) largest difference between the two main parties being in the three way election of 1924:
Democratic nominee John W. Davis (of West Virginia!) hold the all-time low-water mark for popular-vote percentage for a major party (with just one candidate on the ballot) at 28.8% in 1924.
On flip side of that, John Q. Adams holds record for lowest pop-vote % for a WINNING presidential candidate: 30.9% in 1824.
Abraham Lincoln holds the record for the lowest winning percentage by a candidate who was the sole nominee of his party (in 1824 several Democratic-Republicans) with 39.8% in 1860 (versus two Democrats & National Union)
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
I've not followed the argument (and being on holiday I'm going to cop out from trying to), but I'm against the abuse anyway (and my usual rule is to assume that abusers are always factually wrong). You've always struck me as a helpful poster who puts his views reasonably, and I'd be sorry if a couple of random anonymous people shouting at you drove you away. You'll give them a sense of achievement if you do - surely a bad thing? Do ignore them and carry on posting.
Well, for starters I am not particularly anonymous, or not more anonymous than "OllyT" is, and I have quite happily handed out my real name to the PBers I have meet irl, and for seconds it is surely a bit pompous and lazy to say I can't be arsed to inform myself of the facts but my opinion is nonetheless extremely valuable because reasons? This isn't a political disagreement, it's about the right of "OllyT" to dish out extremely stupid slanders.
And if you can't be arsed to page back one thread to verify that, don't bother to reply. Enjoy the holiday though.
Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.
Le Pen leads the Bouche-du-Rhone partial results with 52% but still 37% of B-d-R to be counted (ie the 6 Marseilles districts) according to the Interior Ministry.
Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.
As I said a bit earlier it'll be interesting to see if any age groups preferred Le Pen over Macron.
I think the 25-34 she might have won?
Also saw on a French channel that she won ouvriers (workers) 68-32.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
I've not followed the argument (and being on holiday I'm going to cop out from trying to), but I'm against the abuse anyway (and my usual rule is to assume that abusers are always factually wrong). You've always struck me as a helpful poster who puts his views reasonably, and I'd be sorry if a couple of random anonymous people shouting at you drove you away. You'll give them a sense of achievement if you do - surely a bad thing? Do ignore them and carry on posting.
Well, for starters I am not particularly anonymous, or not more anonymous than "OllyT" is, and I have quite happily handed out my real name to the PBers I have meet irl, and for seconds it is surely a bit pompous and lazy to say I can't be arsed to inform myself of the facts but my opinion is nonetheless extremely valuable because reasons? This isn't a political disagreement, it's about the right of "OllyT" to dish out extremely stupid slanders.
And if you can't be arsed to page back one thread to verify that, don't bother to reply. Enjoy the holiday though.
I think you have drunk too much this evening and I suggest you go to bed ASAP.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
Try snideylittleshit.com
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
Personally, I Ignore Ishmael. He has a long history of picking fights with people on PB. He’s a deeply unpleasant poster.
Stick around.
Love you too. Your critique of Aaron Bell,mp for failing to insert himself far enough up bojos fundament is aging especially well. Respect.
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/24/boris-johnson-writes-angela-rayner-insist-basic-instinct-claim/
I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
Territoire de Belfort
2017: Macron 58.2%
2022: Macron 51.4%
Have always been fascinated by existence of this administrative oddity:
Wikipedia -
The administrative district Territoire de Belfort was created under the terms of the 1871 Treaty of Frankfurt. The German Empire annexed almost all of Alsace, but the French were able to negotiate retention of the Territoire de Belfort which thereby was separated from the rest of Alsace (where it had been part of the department of Haut-Rhin). There were three principal reasons for this exceptional treatment:
The population in and around Belfort was French-speaking.
Belfort had demonstrated heroic resistance, under Colonel Pierre Denfert-Rochereau, to the German invasion. Belfort's left-wing Catholic Deputy Émile Keller now conducted a similarly forceful political campaign in the National Assembly. He argued that ceding heroic Belfort to Germany after the war would be unthinkable.
Since Belfort is situated in a relatively flat passage between the Vosges and Jura mountain ranges (known as the Belfort Gap), the Germans agreed to leave the city in France, because the Prussian military officers indicated that this strategy would give Germany a more defensible border.[2]
After retaining its unique status as a territoire for just over half a century, Belfort was officially recognized as France's 90th department in 1922. France had recovered Alsace three years earlier, but the decision was taken not to reintegrate Belfort into its former department. There was talk of giving it a new departmental name, with suggestions that included "Savoureuse" (after the main river of the new department) or "Mont-Terrible" (the name of a former Napoleonic department embracing parts of Switzerland), but there was no consensus for a name change and the department continues to be known as the Territoire de Belfort.
When the regions of France were created, Belfort was not included in the region of Alsace, but the adjacent region of Franche-Comté, since January 2016 Bourgogne-Franche-Comté.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2979748/#Comment_2979748
It was over 50s who really saved Macron, he won 60% of 50 to 64s and 68% of over 65s
https://twitter.com/MVLibertas/status/1518326482677944324?s=20&t=9oHCpPiyeWKlhKmVxd0wXA
He also wins Alpes-Maritimes with 50.13% (again Excel UNS model had Le Pen winning this) and 74.48% in Val-de-Marne.
12 deps + French overseas still to come.
The more relevant question is whether there is a photo which would shame a sufficient number of Conservative MPs into acting against him.
You can see this in Paris where Macron is still trouncing Le Pen by 86% to 14% so far .
The 14% is effectively the combined score of the 1st round of Le Pen and Zemmour .
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3586493#Comment_3586493
I haven’t bothered to go back any further
Byeeeeeee!
And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
https://www.france24.com/en/france-2022-presidential-election-second-round-results
Macron will win Paris, Val d'Oise, Gironde, while Bouches-du-Rhone will be close but he might hold on here too.
French overseas will be massively Macron.
With Macron at 57.4%, the remaining 3% of results to be counted will need to shift his vote share by over 1% to hit the vote projection figures.
Funny old world.
1964: Lyndon B Johnson 61.1%
1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 60.8%
1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7%
1920: Warren G Harding 60.3%
1984: Ronald Reagan 58.8%
1928: Herbert Hoover 58.2%
1932: Franklin D Roosevelt 57.4%
1956: Dwight D Eisenhower 57.4%
1904: Theodore Roosevelt 56.4%
1952: Dwight D Eisenhower 55.2%
For a second I thought the explosive story was Macron intending to reunite France - I was worried he'd gone immediately Putinesque and wants to reunite some part that is no longer part of France proper.
I’ll be charitable and go with mistaken.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_United_States_presidential_election
1965: Charles de Gaulle 55.2%
1969: Georges Pompidou 58.2%
1974: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing 50.8%
1981: François Mitterrand 51.8%
1981: François Mitterrand 54.0%
1995: Jacques Chirac 52.6%
2002: Jacques Chirac 82.2%
2007: Nicolas Sarkozy 53.1%
2012: François Hollande 51.6%
2017: Emmanuel Macron 66.1%
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html
It was a little bit depressing. (And I would note that Ukrainian flags outnumber Russian ones 40-1 normally.)
Le Pen leads the Bouche-du-Rhone partial results with 52% but still 37% of B-d-R to be counted (ie the 6 Marseilles districts) according to the Interior Ministry.
Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.
Stick around.
But, as with every other crisis, they'll just ignore it, allow it to fester, and when it becomes unsolvable blame it on their children.
On flip side of that, John Q. Adams holds record for lowest pop-vote % for a WINNING presidential candidate: 30.9% in 1824.
Abraham Lincoln holds the record for the lowest winning percentage by a candidate who was the sole nominee of his party (in 1824 several Democratic-Republicans) with 39.8% in 1860 (versus two Democrats & National Union)
And if you can't be arsed to page back one thread to verify that, don't bother to reply. Enjoy the holiday though.
Also saw on a French channel that she won ouvriers (workers) 68-32.
Just Overseas Citizens left.