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Hooray, we can all remain Francophiles for the next 5 years at least – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Given I was a tipper of Trump in 2020 and said so repeatedly on here (despite desperately opposing that outcome) it would be weird indeed for me to back a Dem win in Alaska.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    What's Sue Gray done?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    HYUFD said:

    Trump calls for the Queen to strip Harry and Meghan of their royal titles

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1518334780886167552?s=20&t=6p4pIAX_ocTfUbQqGh6uEg

    And give them something else to get two hours of TV special out of?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Boris Johnson writes to Angela Rayner to insist ‘Basic Instinct’ claim was not in his name
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/24/boris-johnson-writes-angela-rayner-insist-basic-instinct-claim/
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)
    A tip entirely in fiction / your own bizarre fantasies. Not one I have even made. Next.
    You actually did because you posted it multiple times. You really are a total knob.
    Erm. No. You are confusing me with someone else. Show me the posts or STFU.
    I've found a post by you where you mention an Alaska poll will be released.

    You apparently don't have any other posts in the system mentioning Alaska.
    Can you do the same for his posts alleging Virginia wouldn’t turn Republican?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Running total 55.5% Macron with 85% counted

    A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
    Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
    Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
    4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
    I'd have thought Le Pen would do well in those cities.
    Le Pen does well in few cities - there is a strong urban-rural divide affecting RN in most of France, except the north, plus the cities tend to vote left or centre in general. One of the main reasons being the wide dispersion of French universities across many cities. However, the south does indeed have a lot of prosperous cities that lean more right. However, they tend to be rare pro-Macron bastions, and actually Nice and Toulon are two of the few large cities governed by allies of the president, albeit part of Philippe's mini-party and not LREM.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    DavidL said:

    God he’s boring

    Macron? He is French. There is something about the rhythm of French that lends itself to boredom. Shortish phrases with the emphasis at the end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Thanks, @Alistair . Care to retract your comments @MrEd ?

    Not really. I’ve apologised for being wrong before but you’re such an unpleasant character, I’ll give it a miss.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Running total 55.5% Macron with 85% counted

    A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
    Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
    Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
    4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
    I'd have thought Le Pen would do well in those cities.
    Le Pen does well in few cities - there is a strong urban-rural divide affecting RN in most of France, except the north, plus the cities tend to vote left or centre in general. One of the main reasons being the wide dispersion of French universities across many cities. However, the south does indeed have a lot of prosperous cities that lean more right. However, they tend to be rare pro-Macron bastions, and actually Nice and Toulon are two of the few large cities governed by allies of the president, albeit part of Philippe's mini-party and not LREM.
    I might be misremembering, but I thought that both Marseilles and Toulon had voted in FN linked Mayors in the past.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
  • Centrism wins again. KS PM 2024
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    56.7% Macron with 91% counted
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,461
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    Why? Surely that is no worse than a parking fine I thought.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right.
    I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    Why? Surely that is no worse than a parking fine I thought.
    You may well be right.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Dear me, two separate spats going on at the same time? Must be late night pb...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    Why? Surely that is no worse than a parking fine I thought.
    It’s the lack of consent that’s so problematic...
  • Hey tubbs hope you’re well? Not a cricketer are you
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Hey tubbs hope you’re well? Not a cricketer are you

    If you’ve seen me play you might think not, but yes I am.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    Dear me, two separate spats going on at the same time? Must be late night pb...

    Its only unusual if both spats involve the same person arguing with themselves...nods
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Macron holds the Gap -

    Territoire de Belfort
    2017: Macron 58.2%
    2022: Macron 51.4%

    Have always been fascinated by existence of this administrative oddity:

    Wikipedia -

    The administrative district Territoire de Belfort was created under the terms of the 1871 Treaty of Frankfurt. The German Empire annexed almost all of Alsace, but the French were able to negotiate retention of the Territoire de Belfort which thereby was separated from the rest of Alsace (where it had been part of the department of Haut-Rhin). There were three principal reasons for this exceptional treatment:

    The population in and around Belfort was French-speaking.
    Belfort had demonstrated heroic resistance, under Colonel Pierre Denfert-Rochereau, to the German invasion. Belfort's left-wing Catholic Deputy Émile Keller now conducted a similarly forceful political campaign in the National Assembly. He argued that ceding heroic Belfort to Germany after the war would be unthinkable.

    Since Belfort is situated in a relatively flat passage between the Vosges and Jura mountain ranges (known as the Belfort Gap), the Germans agreed to leave the city in France, because the Prussian military officers indicated that this strategy would give Germany a more defensible border.[2]
    After retaining its unique status as a territoire for just over half a century, Belfort was officially recognized as France's 90th department in 1922. France had recovered Alsace three years earlier, but the decision was taken not to reintegrate Belfort into its former department. There was talk of giving it a new departmental name, with suggestions that included "Savoureuse" (after the main river of the new department) or "Mont-Terrible" (the name of a former Napoleonic department embracing parts of Switzerland), but there was no consensus for a name change and the department continues to be known as the Territoire de Belfort.

    When the regions of France were created, Belfort was not included in the region of Alsace, but the adjacent region of Franche-Comté, since January 2016 Bourgogne-Franche-Comté.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    56.8% Macron with 93% counted
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)
    A tip entirely in fiction / your own bizarre fantasies. Not one I have even made. Next.
    You actually did because you posted it multiple times. You really are a total knob.
    Erm. No. You are confusing me with someone else. Show me the posts or STFU.
    I've found a post by you where you mention an Alaska poll will be released.

    You apparently don't have any other posts in the system mentioning Alaska.
    Can you do the same for his posts alleging Virginia wouldn’t turn Republican?
    All I could find was this:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2979748/#Comment_2979748
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right.
    I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
    Sure, if they involve naked dwarves serving up cocaine, and group sex, that may be problematic for Johnson, but not otherwise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited April 2022
    Exit poll details show Le Pen won 49% of 18 to 24s and 55% of 25 to 34s and 45% of 35 to 49s.

    It was over 50s who really saved Macron, he won 60% of 50 to 64s and 68% of over 65s
    https://twitter.com/MVLibertas/status/1518326482677944324?s=20&t=9oHCpPiyeWKlhKmVxd0wXA
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Hence my comment, I held the door so it didn't slam his butt on the way out....too subtle?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,789
    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    A well chosen photograph would do it.
  • Le Pen wins Vaucluse, Var, Somme, although Macron outperforming UNS in all of these.

    He also wins Alpes-Maritimes with 50.13% (again Excel UNS model had Le Pen winning this) and 74.48% in Val-de-Marne.

    12 deps + French overseas still to come.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    There you are, trying to dig up long-dead issues...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    Sean_F said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right.
    I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
    Sure, if they involve naked dwarves serving up cocaine, and group sex, that may be problematic for Johnson, but not otherwise.
    Did you have an address for this club....asking for a tory minister
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    Le Pen wins Vaucluse, Var, Somme, although Macron outperforming UNS in all of these.

    He also wins Alpes-Maritimes with 50.13% (again Excel UNS model had Le Pen winning this) and 74.48% in Val-de-Marne.

    12 deps + French overseas still to come.

    Macron at 74.5% in Val-de-Marne, compares with 80.3% in 2017
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    A well chosen photograph would do it.
    It would have to be a blooming good photo to shame BoJo out.

    The more relevant question is whether there is a photo which would shame a sufficient number of Conservative MPs into acting against him.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    Amongst the many divides in France you have the urban Mélenchon vote transfers v the rest .

    You can see this in Paris where Macron is still trouncing Le Pen by 86% to 14% so far .

    The 14% is effectively the combined score of the 1st round of Le Pen and Zemmour .

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    Why? Surely that is no worse than a parking fine I thought.
    It’s the lack of consent that’s so problematic...
    Have care for the necrophiliacs. A zombie apocalypse will be doubly difficult for them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Pagan2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This


    What matters are the local election results, most people made up their minds on partygate months ago, Gray report or no Gray report
    I can't see anything emerging that would cause Johnson to resign, short of credible evidence that he practised necrophilia.
    I’m not so sure. I’ve been prepared to believe that the parties were pretty tame affairs, fairly shit gatherings of people drinking the odd tin of shit lager. Most people’s perception seems to be much worse than that, and if there really are 300 photos, they are probably right.
    I think photos of Johnson at an obvious party would sink him completely.
    Sure, if they involve naked dwarves serving up cocaine, and group sex, that may be problematic for Johnson, but not otherwise.
    Did you have an address for this club....asking for a tory minister
    You'd need to contact Dougie Smith.
  • Le Pen wins Vaucluse, Var, Somme, although Macron outperforming UNS in all of these.

    He also wins Alpes-Maritimes with 50.13% (again Excel UNS model had Le Pen winning this) and 74.48% in Val-de-Marne.

    12 deps + French overseas still to come.

    Macron at 74.5% in Val-de-Marne, compares with 80.3% in 2017
    Macron outperforming UNS here (based on 58.7% nationwide) by 1.56%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    57.1% Macron with 95% counted
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Looks like final result is gonna be VERY close to immediate post-election pollster projections, which IIRC were clustered tightly at 57%-58%
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    No, sorry, not the case. He doesn't actually have any discernible views, for starters, is genuinely too stupid to distinguish between wants to happen and expects to happen, and gets pleasure from moronically insinuating that posters are fascist sympathisers when they are not. A thoroughly nasty piece of work. Farewell he.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    An election which the polls and betting markets got right from the start. Like others, I was hoping (and betting) that Macron would surprise on the upside and win by a bigger margin.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    57.1% Macron with 95% counted

    Looks like Macron is going to win then!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    57.1% Macron with 95% counted

    Looks like Macron is going to win then!
    BUT you still have opportunity to get some VERY good odds the other way!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    57.1% Macron with 95% counted

    Looks like Macron is going to win then!
    Whoever wins french people lose
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)
    A tip entirely in fiction / your own bizarre fantasies. Not one I have even made. Next.
    You actually did because you posted it multiple times. You really are a total knob.
    Erm. No. You are confusing me with someone else. Show me the posts or STFU.
    I've found a post by you where you mention an Alaska poll will be released.

    You apparently don't have any other posts in the system mentioning Alaska.
    Can you do the same for his posts alleging Virginia wouldn’t turn Republican?
    All I could find was this:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2979748/#Comment_2979748
    Oh ok, what about this?


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3586493#Comment_3586493

    I haven’t bothered to go back any further
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Try snideylittleshit.com

    Byeeeeeee!

    And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Most of you likely have already been checking this link, but if not, check it out, it's VERY detailed/granular

    https://www.france24.com/en/france-2022-presidential-election-second-round-results
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Running total 55.5% Macron with 85% counted

    A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
    Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
    Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
    4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
    I'd have thought Le Pen would do well in those cities.
    Le Pen does well in few cities - there is a strong urban-rural divide affecting RN in most of France, except the north, plus the cities tend to vote left or centre in general. One of the main reasons being the wide dispersion of French universities across many cities. However, the south does indeed have a lot of prosperous cities that lean more right. However, they tend to be rare pro-Macron bastions, and actually Nice and Toulon are two of the few large cities governed by allies of the president, albeit part of Philippe's mini-party and not LREM.
    I might be misremembering, but I thought that both Marseilles and Toulon had voted in FN linked Mayors in the past.
    I don't remember those cities specifically across the decades, I am more talking about the current dispensation which as in other countries involves a stronger urban-rural polarity than previously held. I do remember that during the rise of Le Pen the 1st, there was a lot of controversy about the centre-right parties cooperating with the FN in votes like leadership of regional councils, which to my memory ended with several cases of cooperation. I can easily believe that in the south-east there were many cases where mayors were somehow linked to the FN through alliances.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    edited April 2022
    Ok so just 4 deps + French overseas left to declare.

    Macron will win Paris, Val d'Oise, Gironde, while Bouches-du-Rhone will be close but he might hold on here too.

    French overseas will be massively Macron.

    With Macron at 57.4%, the remaining 3% of results to be counted will need to shift his vote share by over 1% to hit the vote projection figures.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Foxy said:

    Interesting data that Macton got 250% as many Melonchon voters than Le Pen, despite the ramping on here. A majority of the Pecresse vote too.


    Indeed. It’s been a really poor night for the PB Le Pen Rampers.

    Funny old world.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    edited April 2022
    for purposes of comparison - US Presidential Popular-Vote Landslides since 1900

    1964: Lyndon B Johnson 61.1%
    1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 60.8%
    1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7%
    1920: Warren G Harding 60.3%
    1984: Ronald Reagan 58.8%
    1928: Herbert Hoover 58.2%
    1932: Franklin D Roosevelt 57.4%
    1956: Dwight D Eisenhower 57.4%
    1904: Theodore Roosevelt 56.4%
    1952: Dwight D Eisenhower 55.2%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    Trump calls for the Queen to strip Harry and Meghan of their royal titles

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1518334780886167552?s=20&t=6p4pIAX_ocTfUbQqGh6uEg

    Well that guarantees public sentiment moving against that idea.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    57.4% Macron with 97% counted
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Try snideylittleshit.com

    Byeeeeeee!

    And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
    You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This



    For a second I thought the explosive story was Macron intending to reunite France - I was worried he'd gone immediately Putinesque and wants to reunite some part that is no longer part of France proper.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Foxy said:

    Interesting data that Macton got 250% as many Melonchon voters than Le Pen, despite the ramping on here. A majority of the Pecresse vote too.


    Indeed. It’s been a really poor night for the PB Le Pen Rampers.

    Funny old world.
    Have there really been that many? Doesn't feel like it compared to last time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)
    A tip entirely in fiction / your own bizarre fantasies. Not one I have even made. Next.
    You actually did because you posted it multiple times. You really are a total knob.
    Erm. No. You are confusing me with someone else. Show me the posts or STFU.
    I've found a post by you where you mention an Alaska poll will be released.

    You apparently don't have any other posts in the system mentioning Alaska.
    Can you do the same for his posts alleging Virginia wouldn’t turn Republican?
    I see you are also claiming I tipped South Carolina to go GOP. You are either mistaken, delusional or a liar.

    I’ll be charitable and go with mistaken.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    MrEd said:

    Thanks, @Alistair . Care to retract your comments @MrEd ?

    Not really. I’ve apologised for being wrong before but you’re such an unpleasant character, I’ll give it a miss.
    Oh dear.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    kle4 said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This



    For a second I thought the explosive story was Macron intending to reunite France - I was worried he'd gone immediately Putinesque and wants to reunite some part that is no longer part of France proper.
    The Angevin Empire?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Try snideylittleshit.com

    Byeeeeeee!

    And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
    You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
    Maybe a "not" mussing there?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    They don't show Basic Instinct on TV much these days. I wonder why.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,546
    Macron 80% in Lyon; Nearly 80% in Grenoble and Toulouse. Presumably where he is piling up the votes
  • Hey tubbs hope you’re well? Not a cricketer are you

    If you’ve seen me play you might think not, but yes I am.
    Nice, I'm playing tomorrow.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)
    A tip entirely in fiction / your own bizarre fantasies. Not one I have even made. Next.
    You actually did because you posted it multiple times. You really are a total knob.
    Erm. No. You are confusing me with someone else. Show me the posts or STFU.
    I've found a post by you where you mention an Alaska poll will be released.

    You apparently don't have any other posts in the system mentioning Alaska.
    Can you do the same for his posts alleging Virginia wouldn’t turn Republican?
    All I could find was this:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2979748/#Comment_2979748
    Oh ok, what about this?


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3586493#Comment_3586493

    I haven’t bothered to go back any further
    I was correct on all points. Biden won VA by 10pts, despite your heavily tipping Trump there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    It'll be interesting to see how the under-50s voted in France. It could have been close between the two candidates.
  • Keep Johnson in as long as possible. Please.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting data that Macton got 250% as many Melonchon voters than Le Pen, despite the ramping on here. A majority of the Pecresse vote too.


    Indeed. It’s been a really poor night for the PB Le Pen Rampers.

    Funny old world.
    Have there really been that many? Doesn't feel like it compared to last time.
    Relatively few in number, but high in volume. Thankfully most PBers had more sense than to follow their mouths/money.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited April 2022

    for purposes of comparison - US Presidential Popular-Vote Landslides since 1900

    1964: Lyndon B Johnson 61.1%
    1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 60.8%
    1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7%
    1920: Warren G Harding 60.3%
    1984: Ronald Reagan 58.8%
    1928: Herbert Hoover 58.2%
    1932: Franklin D Roosevelt 57.4%
    1956: Dwight D Eisenhower 57.4%
    1904: Theodore Roosevelt 56.4%
    1952: Dwight D Eisenhower 55.2%

    With the second (?) largest difference between the two main parties being in the three way election of 1924:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_United_States_presidential_election
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    French Presidential 2nd-Round Winning Percentages since 1965

    1965: Charles de Gaulle 55.2%
    1969: Georges Pompidou 58.2%
    1974: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing 50.8%
    1981: François Mitterrand 51.8%
    1981: François Mitterrand 54.0%
    1995: Jacques Chirac 52.6%
    2002: Jacques Chirac 82.2%
    2007: Nicolas Sarkozy 53.1%
    2012: François Hollande 51.6%
    2017: Emmanuel Macron 66.1%

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    58.3% Macron with 98% counted
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Andy_JS said:

    They don't show Basic Instinct on TV much these days. I wonder why.

    I saw it on TV a couple of times last year. Forgot the channel though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Olly. Hang around. There's a shortage of Lib Dems on here. Don't take the insults seriously. He'll be sober by the morning
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Today in Los Angeles there was a little convoy of cars sporting the US and Russian flags.

    It was a little bit depressing. (And I would note that Ukrainian flags outnumber Russian ones 40-1 normally.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    ping said:

    Sue Gray. Legend.

    Something up? Nothing on twitter
    This



    For a second I thought the explosive story was Macron intending to reunite France - I was worried he'd gone immediately Putinesque and wants to reunite some part that is no longer part of France proper.
    There was a great French comedian who used to introduce his monologues with "Françaises, Français, Belges, Belges".
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,397
    "1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7%" No wonder they called him "Tricky Dick", winning the presidency in an off year, before he had turned 35, the legal age limit for the presidency.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Andy_JS said:

    They don't show Basic Instinct on TV much these days. I wonder why.

    Is it because of a lack of non-binary characters?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    edited April 2022
    Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.

    Le Pen leads the Bouche-du-Rhone partial results with 52% but still 37% of B-d-R to be counted (ie the 6 Marseilles districts) according to the Interior Ministry.

    Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.
  • Why are people bullying @MrEd again?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    They don't show Basic Instinct on TV much these days. I wonder why.

    Is it because of a lack of non-binary characters?
    Roxy was a lesbian.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited April 2022
    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Try snideylittleshit.com

    Byeeeeeee!

    And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
    You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
    Personally, I Ignore Ishmael. He has a long history of picking fights with people on PB. He’s a deeply unpleasant poster.

    Stick around.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited April 2022

    Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.

    Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.

    Is Paris in? The Guardian has Paris, Bouches-du-Rhone and Overseas citizens to declare.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 303
    Le Pen winning the under 35 vote should be a massive warning to the complacent gerontocracy that has run the West for the last thirty years.

    But, as with every other crisis, they'll just ignore it, allow it to fester, and when it becomes unsolvable blame it on their children.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited April 2022

    Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.

    Le Pen leads the Bouche-du-Rhone partial results with 52% but still 37% of B-d-R to be counted (ie the 6 Marseilles districts) according to the Interior Ministry.

    Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.

    As I said a bit earlier it'll be interesting to see if any age groups preferred Le Pen over Macron.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    for purposes of comparison - US Presidential Popular-Vote Landslides since 1900

    1964: Lyndon B Johnson 61.1%
    1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 60.8%
    1942: Richard M Nixon 60.7%
    1920: Warren G Harding 60.3%
    1984: Ronald Reagan 58.8%
    1928: Herbert Hoover 58.2%
    1932: Franklin D Roosevelt 57.4%
    1956: Dwight D Eisenhower 57.4%
    1904: Theodore Roosevelt 56.4%
    1952: Dwight D Eisenhower 55.2%

    With the second (?) largest difference between the two main parties being in the three way election of 1924:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_United_States_presidential_election
    Democratic nominee John W. Davis (of West Virginia!) hold the all-time low-water mark for popular-vote percentage for a major party (with just one candidate on the ballot) at 28.8% in 1924.

    On flip side of that, John Q. Adams holds record for lowest pop-vote % for a WINNING presidential candidate: 30.9% in 1824.

    Abraham Lincoln holds the record for the lowest winning percentage by a candidate who was the sole nominee of his party (in 1824 several Democratic-Republicans) with 39.8% in 1860 (versus two Democrats & National Union)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Try snideylittleshit.com

    Byeeeeeee!

    And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
    You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
    I've not followed the argument (and being on holiday I'm going to cop out from trying to), but I'm against the abuse anyway (and my usual rule is to assume that abusers are always factually wrong). You've always struck me as a helpful poster who puts his views reasonably, and I'd be sorry if a couple of random anonymous people shouting at you drove you away. You'll give them a sense of achievement if you do - surely a bad thing? Do ignore them and carry on posting.
    Well, for starters I am not particularly anonymous, or not more anonymous than "OllyT" is, and I have quite happily handed out my real name to the PBers I have meet irl, and for seconds it is surely a bit pompous and lazy to say I can't be arsed to inform myself of the facts but my opinion is nonetheless extremely valuable because reasons? This isn't a political disagreement, it's about the right of "OllyT" to dish out extremely stupid slanders.

    And if you can't be arsed to page back one thread to verify that, don't bother to reply. Enjoy the holiday though.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.

    Le Pen leads the Bouche-du-Rhone partial results with 52% but still 37% of B-d-R to be counted (ie the 6 Marseilles districts) according to the Interior Ministry.

    Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.

    As I said a bit earlier it'll be interesting to see if any age groups preferred Le Pen over Macron.
    I think the 25-34 she might have won?

    Also saw on a French channel that she won ouvriers (workers) 68-32.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited April 2022

    Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.

    Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.

    Is Paris in? The Guardian has Paris, Bouches-du-Rhone and Overseas citizens to declare.
    It's in - 85.1% Macron!
  • Looks like 6 Marseille districts still to complete, but everything else apart from French overseas is now in.

    Of the 105 results in, Macron is over/under v UNS on 2017 assuming 58.7% nationwide, at 49/56, with a clear urban/rural split here.

    Is Paris in? The Guardian has Paris, Bouches-du-Rhone and Overseas citizens to declare.
    Yes Macron 85.1%
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Why are people bullying @MrEd again?

    I assume by ‘bullying’ you mean asking him to retract untruths made about others…
  • Ally_B1Ally_B1 Posts: 46
    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Try snideylittleshit.com

    Byeeeeeee!

    And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
    You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
    I've not followed the argument (and being on holiday I'm going to cop out from trying to), but I'm against the abuse anyway (and my usual rule is to assume that abusers are always factually wrong). You've always struck me as a helpful poster who puts his views reasonably, and I'd be sorry if a couple of random anonymous people shouting at you drove you away. You'll give them a sense of achievement if you do - surely a bad thing? Do ignore them and carry on posting.
    Well, for starters I am not particularly anonymous, or not more anonymous than "OllyT" is, and I have quite happily handed out my real name to the PBers I have meet irl, and for seconds it is surely a bit pompous and lazy to say I can't be arsed to inform myself of the facts but my opinion is nonetheless extremely valuable because reasons? This isn't a political disagreement, it's about the right of "OllyT" to dish out extremely stupid slanders.

    And if you can't be arsed to page back one thread to verify that, don't bother to reply. Enjoy the holiday though.
    I think you have drunk too much this evening and I suggest you go to bed ASAP.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Le Pen winning the under 35 vote should be a massive warning to the complacent gerontocracy that has run the West for the last thirty years.

    But, as with every other crisis, they'll just ignore it, allow it to fester, and when it becomes unsolvable blame it on their children.

    Has it been confirmed that she won the under-35 vote?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Bouches-du-Rhone 52.1% Macron

    Just Overseas Citizens left.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ping said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pagan2 said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Lozère 2nd round

    2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
    2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

    Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

    DavidL said:

    France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

    Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
    You have lost, and lost badly.

    Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
    Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

    Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking? :)

    PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
    People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

    Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
    Hang weights on it, love.

    This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
    Hang weights on it, love.

    Wants to win, politically

    Wants to win, because betting position

    Expects to win

    Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
    Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
    You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.

    You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
    Nothing I said in that comment has warranted the vile personal abuse you have hurled at me all evening.

    I believe I am done with PB. Bye.
    Holds the door so it doesn't slam your butt on the way out
    Olly T has a fair point. I don't share his views, but the abuse that has been flung in his direction has been out of order.
    Thanks for that but I have found it quite upsetting so am taking my leave. Other sites are available.
    Try snideylittleshit.com

    Byeeeeeee!

    And, honestly, look at your post which started all this, and ask yourself whether I don't even have 0.1% of a point?
    You have every right to disagree with me, you do have the right to hurl vile personal abuse at me.
    Personally, I Ignore Ishmael. He has a long history of picking fights with people on PB. He’s a deeply unpleasant poster.

    Stick around.
    Love you too. Your critique of Aaron Bell,mp for failing to insert himself far enough up bojos fundament is aging especially well. Respect.
This discussion has been closed.