Hooray, we can all remain Francophiles for the next 5 years at least – politicalbetting.com

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Hooray, we can all remain Francophiles for the next 5 years at least – politicalbetting.com

Emmanuel Macron will become the first French president in 20 years to win a second term after an official vote projection suggested he has seen off the challenge from Marine Le Pen https://t.co/cqrypIRUSI

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Test

TimT

First non-test

ClippP

About time we had some good news!!

Malmesbury

TimT said:

Malmesbury said:

TimT said:

JohnLilburne said:

TimT said:

JohnLilburne said:

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It already is de facto involvement with NATO arming Ukrainian and it cannot be ruled out that NATO will be drawn into the conflict at some time

Just repeating your opinion does not make it an unqualified fact in this intractable and unpredictable war, sadly

The Cold War was a series of proxy conflicts where sometimes the USA and Soviet Union would be arming one side or both sides. Ukraine is more like Vietnam or Afghanistan in which the forces of one of the superpowers are faced with what should be an inferior force but which is armed and supplied by the other superpower.

The results of both of those conflicts should give Ukraine some encouragement.

We have to avoid the temptation to become directly involved.

We are discussing this without considering one important thing. What is NATO's war aim? We are all-but belligerent, we must be working towards some end.

The end is the defence of the western democratic, human rights, liberal economics ideal in a rules-based world, and defending it at the first, not last domino. That is a defensive posture; NATO is not being an aggressor.

Yes, but is it the defeat of Russia, the destruction of their Army of Ukraine, a truce on 2014 borders, a bullet in the back of Putin's head, etc, etc.

Ideally, it would result in a Russia who wants to join, and is fully committed to joining that western democratic, human rights, liberal economics ideal in a rules-based world. But there are many acceptable alternatives that fall short of that, where Russia is defanged, required to leave Ukraine and is effectively removed as a threat for the foreseeable.

To many of the hard core Greater Russian Nationalists, the above is tantamount to the extinction of Russia -

Vilain : Respect is everything. Without respect, we are just people. Common, shitty people.

Well, he at least is self-aware.

Ha. Did you notice the source of the quote?

DavidL

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

IshmaelZ

I still get wicked Fiona Shaw vibes off Marine, mind.

Anabobazina

Thoughts and prayers with @MrEd , @williamglenn and all the other PB Le Pen Fanciers.

Thoughts.

And prayers.

Jonathan

Trump ❌
Le Pen ❌
Johnson 🤞

SeaShantyIrish2

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL

Madam Macron looks like she would rather be almost anywhere else

nico679

What a lovely entrance by Macron and his wife . Very emotional hearing that beautiful rendition of Ode To Joy .

So happy that my parents gave me the chance to keep my EU passport .

moonshine

Another telling blow in the fight between western democracy and Putinism. Hurrah.

Jonathan

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

Sandpit

14th, like Lewis Hamilton.

tlg86

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

Carnyx

nico679 said:

What a lovely entrance by Macron and his wife . Very emotional hearing that beautiful rendition of Ode To Joy .

So happy that my parents gave me the chance to keep my EU passport .

Jammy sod ... but not complaining that you kept it.

MrEd

Anabobazina said:

Thoughts and prayers with @MrEd , @williamglenn and all the other PB Le Pen Fanciers.

Thoughts.

And prayers.

And likewise thoughts and prayers for you. For being you.

Anabobazina

Le Pen is getting a proper schooli

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

The projection is for Macron to win by 17 points.

Not even close, never mind “painfully close”.

Sean_F

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

I think one poster said Mayotte is 99% Muslim.

SeaShantyIrish2

Cantal 2nd Round (all but one poll reporting)

2017: Macron 69.8% Le Pen 30.2%
2022: Macron 56.1% Le Pen 43.9%

MrEd

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Sandpit

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

Instead, he gets to shill for the world’s most evil company.

Jonathan

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

After the failure and early collapse of the Cameron minority administration, the LibDem on march power there way to a LD led coalition in the post riot 2011 election.

williamglenn

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

I would have thought he'd stand more of a chance in Dutch politics than running for President of France.

Jonathan

Sandpit said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

Instead, he gets to shill for the world’s most evil company.

The Daily Mail or Ryanair?

DavidL

Anabobazina said:

Le Pen is getting a proper schooli

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

The projection is for Macron to win by 17 points.

Not even close, never mind “painfully close”.

Lol. I meant close to my bet (and many others) bet on 60-65% following the tip on here the other day.

Sean_F

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

SeaShantyIrish2

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

I think one poster said Mayotte is 99% Muslim.

About that. HOWEVER religion is NOT the main issue in Mayotte re: French presidency methinks.

Sean_F

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

After the failure and early collapse of the Cameron minority administration, the LibDem on march power there way to a LD led coalition in the post riot 2011 election.

My guess is that Cameron, if left to form a minority administration, would have sought a fresh election at an opportune moment.

rcs1000

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

I think he means that Nick Clegg could have been writing PB headers. What a waste, huh?

Roger

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

DavidL

God he’s boring

Sunil_Prasannan

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

I think one poster said Mayotte is 99% Muslim.

It is (and it was me!). Reunion is 85% Christian.

SeaShantyIrish2

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 2nd round (all but one poll reporting)

2017: Macron 58.5% Le Pen 41.5%
2022: Macron 51.5% Le Pen 48.6%

FF43

Wonder if Johnson would really prefer Le Pen. They are similar in many ways, a point @Roger was making on the previous thread.

Sean_F

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

Well, 42% voted for the far right candidate, as well as a majoriy in your neck of the woods.

tlg86

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

After the failure and early collapse of the Cameron minority administration, the LibDem on march power there way to a LD led coalition in the post riot 2011 election.

Surely Cameron would have called another election for October, with the benefits of incumbency.

Anabobazina

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

I think he means that Nick Clegg could have been writing PB headers. What a waste, huh?

Indeed. What’s a few hundred thousand dollars a year compared with such an honour?

EPG

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

I think one poster said Mayotte is 99% Muslim.

But inundated by immigration from the Comoros. Some estimates that native residents are a minority on the island. And, like some of the rest of overseas France, it is poor and wishes to kick the incumbent, even if that means in some cases a massive Mélenchon - Le Pen transfer.

Sean_F

FF43 said:

Wonder if Johnson would really prefer Le Pen. They are similar in many ways, a point @Roger was making on the previous thread.

He would not, because Le Pen is hostile towards NATO.

Anabobazina

DavidL said:

Anabobazina said:

Le Pen is getting a proper schooli

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

The projection is for Macron to win by 17 points.

Not even close, never mind “painfully close”.

Lol. I meant close to my bet (and many others) bet on 60-65% following the tip on here the other day.

Oh I see. Sorry sir!

😂

MrEd

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

FrancisUrquhart

Le Pen is quasi-ineffective like the AZN vaccine ;-)

Anabobazina

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

Thoughts and prayers with @MrEd , @williamglenn and all the other PB Le Pen Fanciers.

Thoughts.

And prayers.

And likewise thoughts and prayers for you. For being you.

LOL

SeaShantyIrish2

Only thing left to report outside of continental France (im)proper are (or is?) French Citizens Abroad.

Note that Shanghai lockdown means that approx 5k French citizens were NOT able to vote in 2nd round.

EPG

On the subject of Mayotte and the Comoros, your friendly reminder that the Comoros was conquered, AFTER decolonisation, by a French mercenary with a few dozen men.

SeaShantyIrish2

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

This is where I'm getting 2017 numbers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election

MrEd

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

DavidL

Have to admit that they have better songs.

MrEd

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...

SeaShantyIrish2

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

Think it's -7% down there?

Jim_Miller

From previous thread: Tim T - Thanks for this: "@State go away is not entirely correct. There was an instance in which a Russian Lt Col was required to fire nuclear weapons according to protocol but refused to follow standing orders.

Lt Col Stanislav Petrov: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov "

I was vaguely aware of that first example, but couldn't remember enough to find it quickly;

From your Wikipedia link:

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 – 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident.[1] On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm.[2]

His subsequent decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol,[3] is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large-scale nuclear war which could have wiped out half of the population of the countries involved.

(My apologies for the off-topic comments, but I think nuclear war is an important enough subject to warrant an interruption or two.)

Anabobazina

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

A tip entirely in fiction / your own bizarre fantasies. Not one I have even made. Next.

Pro_Rata

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

All breakdowns are in the 2017 electio Wikipedia page which reports 58.46:41.54 to Macron, so swing of 10%.

FF43

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

Wonder if Johnson would really prefer Le Pen. They are similar in many ways, a point @Roger was making on the previous thread.

He would not, because Le Pen is hostile towards NATO.

Makes sense. And I suppose also just because you are like someone it doesn't mean you like them. I am guessing Johnson doesn't like Macron much either - seems to be the settled view of those in his camp - cf all those Spectator hatchet jobs on him.

Jonathan

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

After the failure and early collapse of the Cameron minority administration, the LibDem on march power there way to a LD led coalition in the post riot 2011 election.

Surely Cameron would have called another election for October, with the benefits of incumbency.

And lost. Arguably preferable for him compared to how it actually turned out.

DavidL

Jim_Miller said:

From previous thread: Tim T - Thanks for this: "@State go away is not entirely correct. There was an instance in which a Russian Lt Col was required to fire nuclear weapons according to protocol but refused to follow standing orders.

Lt Col Stanislav Petrov: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov "

I was vaguely aware of that first example, but couldn't remember enough to find it quickly;

From your Wikipedia link:

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 – 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident.[1] On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm.[2]

His subsequent decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol,[3] is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large-scale nuclear war which could have wiped out half of the population of the countries involved.

(My apologies for the off-topic comments, but I think nuclear war is an important enough subject to warrant an interruption or two.)

Really? You have money on it?

MrEd

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

A tip entirely in fiction / your own bizarre fantasies. Not one I have even made. Next.

You actually did because you posted it multiple times. You really are a total knob.

MrEd

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

Think it's -7% down there?

Doh, R grade for Maths...

SeaShantyIrish2

Pro_Rata said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

All breakdowns are in the 2017 electio Wikipedia page which reports 58.46:41.54 to Macron, so swing of 10%.

You are absolutely correct, as I managed to switch the candidates in my 2022 calculation! Mea culpa.

glw

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

SeaShantyIrish2

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 2nd round (all but one poll reporting)

2017: Macron 58.5% Le Pen 41.5%
2022: Macron 51.5% Le Pen 48.6%

fake news, I transposed 2022 results

Sean_F

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

Think it's -7% down there?

Comparing the two rounds, I think Le Pen must have picked up about 7,000 left wing votes from Round 1, in that department.

Andy_JS

Good evening. It'll be interesting to see how many regions Le Pen wins.

nico679

Carnyx said:

nico679 said:

What a lovely entrance by Macron and his wife . Very emotional hearing that beautiful rendition of Ode To Joy .

So happy that my parents gave me the chance to keep my EU passport .

Jammy sod ... but not complaining that you kept it.

I’m very proud to be both British and Cypriot . Macron is hugely popular in Cyprus and Greece so my mum will be very happy tonight .

Pro_Rata

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

Think it's -7% down there?

Doh, R grade for Maths...

I've just corrected 7 -> 10% myself. Le Pen won the department. A Macron 51.5:48.5 win would've been 7%.

DavidL

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.

SeaShantyIrish2

bunch of new results just in

MrEd

Pro_Rata said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

Think it's -7% down there?

Doh, R grade for Maths...

I've just corrected 7 -> 10% myself. Le Pen won the department. A Macron 51.5:48.5 win would've been 7%.

Phew, thought I had got the number wrong.

Stuartinromford

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

Hasn't MLP tacked quite a long way towards the mainstream this time? Enough to leave a chunky space to her right, occupied by Zemmour. Not enough to win, and it's hard to see how she can go much further in that direction.

SeaShantyIrish2

Corse-du-Sud
2017: Macron 50.6%
2022: Macron 41.7%

Haute-Corse
2017: Macron 52.3%
2022: Macron 42.1%

glw

DavidL said:

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.

Yes I agree with that too. But Roger's a complete pratt for putting them in the same category as Johnson. Le Pen is more like a Nick Griffin character.

It's great that Macron has won, but when a fascist gets 40% of the vote nobody should be celebrating. It's too close to a catastrophe for anything more than temporary relief.

MrEd

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

bunch of new results just in

Landes:

2022
Macron 56,5%
Le Pen 43.5%

2017
Macron 68.7%
Le Pen 31.3%

Macron down 12%

Sean_F

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. It'll be interesting to see how many regions Le Pen wins.

Four overseas, plus Grand Est, Haut De France, Corsica, Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azure, and perhaps Normandy, I expect.

SeaShantyIrish2

Orne
2017: Macron 61.6%
2022: Macron 55.1%

Eure-et-Loir
2017: Macron 60.3%
2022: Macron 53.3%

Sean_F

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Corse-du-Sud
2017: Macron 50.6%
2022: Macron 41.7%

Haute-Corse
2017: Macron 52.3%
2022: Macron 42.1%

So, that's the first Metropolitan region to be carried by Le Pen.

rottenborough

I had a feeling the french would surprise/shock us and vote in Le Pen. I think I posted that at some point.

I am delighted to be wrong.

Happy to lose my £10 on Le Pen.

glw

Stuartinromford said:

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

Hasn't MLP tacked quite a long way towards the mainstream this time? Enough to leave a chunky space to her right, occupied by Zemmour. Not enough to win, and it's hard to see how she can go much further in that direction.

Yes, but I for one do not believe that it is ever safe to assume the leopard has changed his spots. There will be too many of her followers seeing her as a means to an end.

OllyT

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...

People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.

MrEd

Averyon

2022

Marcon 60%
Le Pen 40%

2017
Macron 72.8%
Le Pen 27.2

Taking a quick look, it looks like Macron is relatively outperforming the overall dip in the East but doing worse in the South.

Foxy

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

Though hasn't French politics been polarised for about 2 1/2 cenuries between internationalist Jacobins and chauvinistic catholic conservatives?

SeaShantyIrish2

Haute-Marne
2017: Macron 50.5%
2022: Macron 43.0%

Meuse
2017: Macron 51.6%
2022: Macron 44.4%

FF43

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.

SeaShantyIrish2

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Corse-du-Sud
2017: Macron 50.6%
2022: Macron 41.7%

Haute-Corse
2017: Macron 52.3%
2022: Macron 42.1%

So, that's the first Metropolitan region to be carried by Le Pen.

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence was first I believe (I transposed 2022 numbers)

DoubleCarpet

So 31/107 department results now in, Macron underperforming UNS v Rd 2 2017, based on 58% nationwide result, in 23/31.

rottenborough

Sean_F said:

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. It'll be interesting to see how many regions Le Pen wins.

Four overseas, plus Grand Est, Haut De France, Corsica, Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azure, and perhaps Normandy, I expect.

By Normandy do you mean Calvados? It's 58-41 to Macron there at moment.

Sunil_Prasannan

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Corse-du-Sud
2017: Macron 50.6%
2022: Macron 41.7%

Haute-Corse
2017: Macron 52.3%
2022: Macron 42.1%

So, that's the first Metropolitan region to be carried by Le Pen.

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence was first I believe (I transposed 2022 numbers)

That's a Department, not a Region.

SeaShantyIrish2

Ariège
2017: Macron 63.1%
2022: Macron 51.1%

(Close to where our intrepid galloping gourmand has been squirming with the toads, or some such)

IshmaelZ

OllyT said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...

People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.

Hang weights on it, love.

Andy_JS

Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.

Casino_Royale

I expect to lose by a country mile but I couldn't resist putting £1 on Macron <54.99% on Betfair at 300/1

MrEd

OllyT said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...

People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.

Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.

Works both ways. There are a fair few posters on here who were ramping up the idea in the 2020 GE that the Democrats were going to win places like South Carolina and even Alaska, such as @Anabobazina. But for some reasons - presumably because it's in line with your political views - you give them more leeway.

For the record, I said 2020 in the US would be similar to 2016. Certainly more true than those posters who were saying Biden was in for a landslide, of which there were a few. I also said on here that I thought Le Pen would be bad for the world if she won.

As a general point, you seem to have the implicit view that, if you are left wing, you are more dispassionate. Sorry to tell you, that is wrong.

Andy_JS

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

Johnson's government is far-right?

SeaShantyIrish2

Jura
2017: Macron 61.4%
2022: Macron 53.1%

another_richard

DavidL said:

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.

They voted for the GOP which Trump had managed to get control over.

Which is why I wonder how well MLP would have done if she had emerged from the traditional, rather than the extreme, right

MrEd

Dordogne

2022 Macron 51.5%
2017 Macron 64.3%

Vosges

2022 Macron 47.6%
2017 Macron 55.3%

glw

FF43 said:

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.

Johnson leads a mainstream party, Le Pen leads fascists.

Sunil_Prasannan

MrEd said:

Dordogne

2022 Macron 51.5%
2017 Macron 64.3%

Vosges

2022 Macron 47.6%
2017 Macron 55.3%

Grand-Est region going for Le Pen

SeaShantyIrish2

Haute-Vienne
2017: Macron 71.0%
2022: Macron 59.2%