There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
Though hasn't French politics been polarised for about 2 1/2 cenuries between internationalist Jacobins and chauvinistic catholic conservatives?
There's something in that except that the Jacobins managed plenty of chauvinism themselves.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.
Yes I agree with that too. But Roger's a complete pratt for putting them in the same category as Johnson. Le Pen is more like a Nick Griffin character.
It's great that Macron has won, but when a fascist gets 40% of the vote nobody should be celebrating. It's too close to a catastrophe for anything more than temporary relief.
The Rwanda policy is one Le Pen wants to copy as is Frexit. Her views on the Burka are similar, She also thinks they look like pillar boxes. She wants to leave NATO but that isn't left or right. The list is surprisingly long.
.........In fact make it easier. Tell me where their policies differ?
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
Though hasn't French politics been polarised for about 2 1/2 cenuries between internationalist Jacobins and chauvinistic catholic conservatives?
There's something in that except that the Jacobins managed plenty of chauvinism themselves.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.
Yes I agree with that too. But Roger's a complete pratt for putting them in the same category as Johnson. Le Pen is more like a Nick Griffin character.
It's great that Macron has won, but when a fascist gets 40% of the vote nobody should be celebrating. It's too close to a catastrophe for anything more than temporary relief.
The Rwanda policy is one Le Pen wants to copy as is Frexit. Her views on the Burka are similar, She also thinks they look like pillar boxes. She wants to leave NATO but that isn't left or right. The list is surprisingly long.
.........In fact make it easier. Tell me where their policies differ?
She doesn't want a bridge between NI and Scotland?
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.
Yes I agree with that too. But Roger's a complete pratt for putting them in the same category as Johnson. Le Pen is more like a Nick Griffin character.
It's great that Macron has won, but when a fascist gets 40% of the vote nobody should be celebrating. It's too close to a catastrophe for anything more than temporary relief.
The Rwanda policy is one Le Pen wants to copy as is Frexit. Her views on the Burka are similar, She also thinks they look like pillar boxes. She wants to leave NATO but that isn't left or right. The list is surprisingly long.
.........In fact make it easier. Tell me where their policies differ?
Perhaps you could tell us what French law is regarding the burqa.
Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.
There's a strong strand of opinion in right-wing French politics that thinks France and Russia should collaborate in bookending Europe as equal partners.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
Though hasn't French politics been polarised for about 2 1/2 cenuries between internationalist Jacobins and chauvinistic catholic conservatives?
There's something in that except that the Jacobins managed plenty of chauvinism themselves.
Yes, but the Jacobins conceive France as a secular idea, while the heirs of the Bourbons more as a catholic ethnicity. This is a polarised view that doesn't leave much in the middle, hence the difficulties of Macron steering a centrist policy. There isnt much scope for centrism in such a Manichean world view.
Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.
There's a strong strand of opinion in right-wing French politics that thinks France and Russia should collaborate in bookending Europe as equal partners.
For traditional anti-German reasons.
Their problem is that the German establishment is even more pro Russia.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.
Johnson leads a mainstream party, Le Pen leads fascists.
If she gets 40% of the vote. Le Pen is mainstream.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.
Yes I agree with that too. But Roger's a complete pratt for putting them in the same category as Johnson. Le Pen is more like a Nick Griffin character.
It's great that Macron has won, but when a fascist gets 40% of the vote nobody should be celebrating. It's too close to a catastrophe for anything more than temporary relief.
The Rwanda policy is one Le Pen wants to copy as is Frexit. Her views on the Burka are similar, She also thinks they look like pillar boxes. She wants to leave NATO but that isn't left or right. The list is surprisingly long.
.........In fact make it easier. Tell me where their policies differ?
Much lower immigration than even the UK is aiming for. Massive prison expansion. Discrimination in employment and benefits against the non-French. Possible death penalty referendum. Sucking up to Russia, and a general "great powers" carve up of Europe. General promotion of traditional "family" values, and curtailing things like same-sex marriage.
Litterally the same kind of crap we've heard for decades from the likes of the NF/BNP.
Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.
There's a strong strand of opinion in right-wing French politics that thinks France and Russia should collaborate in bookending Europe as equal partners.
For traditional anti-German reasons.
Their problem is that the German establishment is even more pro Russia.
It doesnt seem that being pro-Putin is a big vote loser across much of Europe, many countries of which are in NATO.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.
Johnson leads a mainstream party, Le Pen leads fascists.
If she gets 40% of the vote. Le Pen is mainstream.
Traditional instead of mainstream then.
After all, if the argument is Le Pan is not fascist/far right as she is mainstream as she gets 40% of the vote, then the argument Boris is far right likewise falls down.
I'd have though the Percasse transfers are relevant, in terms of Tory analogues.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
Johnson's government is far-right?
To some of us it seem to be heading that way: Asylum seekers to Rwanda, interfering with the Independent Electoral Commission and the prorogation of Parliament for starters.
The Home Secretary has a particularly interesting back story. A previously confirmed hanger and flogger and someone not averse to conducting a parallel foreign policy to her own (previous) Government's.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Works both ways. There are a fair few posters on here who were ramping up the idea in the 2020 GE that the Democrats were going to win places like South Carolina and even Alaska, such as @Anabobazina. But for some reasons - presumably because it's in line with your political views - you give them more leeway.
For the record, I said 2020 in the US would be similar to 2016. Certainly more true than those posters who were saying Biden was in for a landslide, of which there were a few. I also said on here that I thought Le Pen would be bad for the world if she won.
As a general point, you seem to have the implicit view that, if you are left wing, you are more dispassionate. Sorry to tell you, that is wrong.
Don't get me wrong, I find your comments interesting and often informative I just take them with a pinch of salt as betting tips. People who tend to see what they want to see are certainly not limited to one end of the political spectrum.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
After all, if the argument is Le Pan is not fascist/far right as she is mainstream as she gets 40% of the vote, then the argument Boris is far right likewise falls down.
I'd have though the Percasse transfers are relevant, in terms of Tory analogues.
Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.
There's a strong strand of opinion in right-wing French politics that thinks France and Russia should collaborate in bookending Europe as equal partners.
Don't forget Great Britain refers to our island. The not so great bit is currently Northern France. Maybe we should consider the repatriation of our property.
Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.
There's a strong strand of opinion in right-wing French politics that thinks France and Russia should collaborate in bookending Europe as equal partners.
For traditional anti-German reasons.
Their problem is that the German establishment is even more pro Russia.
It doesnt seem that being pro-Putin is a big vote loser across much of Europe, many countries of which are in NATO.
I wonder how true that is of British voters.
I'm fairly sure there has been polling on this and after Ukraine itself I think it was Japan and the UK who had the strongest "Russia is to blame" views.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Works both ways. There are a fair few posters on here who were ramping up the idea in the 2020 GE that the Democrats were going to win places like South Carolina and even Alaska, such as @Anabobazina. But for some reasons - presumably because it's in line with your political views - you give them more leeway.
For the record, I said 2020 in the US would be similar to 2016. Certainly more true than those posters who were saying Biden was in for a landslide, of which there were a few. I also said on here that I thought Le Pen would be bad for the world if she won.
As a general point, you seem to have the implicit view that, if you are left wing, you are more dispassionate. Sorry to tell you, that is wrong.
Don't get me wrong, I find your comments interesting and often informative I just take them with a pinch of salt as betting tips. People who tend to see what they want to see are certainly not limited to one end of the political spectrum.
That is fair enough. Part of it reflects, when it comes to political betting, I focus on the US and UK and, to some degree, France. I wouldn't say I always go with the right-wing bets (I was unsure re Batley and Spen but very confident on Hartlepool, as others can attest) but I tend to see more value in them. Brexit and Trump 2016 were 6/1 on the day.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.
Johnson leads a mainstream party, Le Pen leads fascists.
If she gets 40% of the vote. Le Pen is mainstream.
Traditional instead of mainstream then.
After all, if the argument is Le Pan is not fascist/far right as she is mainstream as she gets 40% of the vote, then the argument Boris is far right likewise falls down.
I'd have though the Percasse transfers are relevant, in terms of Tory analogues.
I would argue the now Conservative and Unionist party is not the traditional party, thanks to the Johnson insurgency, not least because it is neither conservative nor unionist in any real sense any more. I accept the starting points of Johnson and Le Pen were different but have ended up in a somewhat similar place. Le Pen wouldn't be winning 40% of the vote if she stuck to her fascist memes. She has had a reasonable campaign. Structurally Macron is in a better position in campaigning from the centre-right, although I am apparently not allowed to call it that on here, as he can pick up further votes from the left. Pécresse transfers are as irrelevant as the candidate herself. Her would-be voters were mostly already opting for Macron, while some had peeled off for Le Pen and were out of reach.
Not a projection, I think but rather current numbers. Lets hope Paris goes big for Macron. That 60% isnt far away...
To get to 60% would mean Macron down 6% from 2017. In many of the results so far, he's down more than that and few is he above that figure. May change with Paris.
Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.
There's a strong strand of opinion in right-wing French politics that thinks France and Russia should collaborate in bookending Europe as equal partners.
Don't forget Great Britain refers to our island. The not so great bit is currently Northern France. Maybe we should consider the repatriation of our property.
"Island". More than one, not to mention Ireland ...
Ok so after a busy 90 mins or so putting results into Excel, with 68/107 departments declared and assuming 58.7% nationwide for Macron, he is underperforming a UNS v Rd 2 2017 in 46/68.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
I'm sure it has been pointed out before but the old Angevin territories seem to have different voting patterns to eastern France.
Heritage of Catholic-centrist, farmer, pro-Europe politics: it was Giscard's heartland, too, and it was a good area for the UDF right up until the end of that party. More recently, strongly secularised and doing well economically, so not TOO Catholic or left-behind rural, instead moderate centre-left, which is exactly Macron's background. [Edit: I should add, in fairness, way less visible minority population than is typical for France; instead a tradition of emigration, think of a French version of Wales.]
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.
Johnson leads a mainstream party, Le Pen leads fascists.
If she gets 40% of the vote. Le Pen is mainstream.
Traditional instead of mainstream then.
After all, if the argument is Le Pan is not fascist/far right as she is mainstream as she gets 40% of the vote, then the argument Boris is far right likewise falls down.
I'd have though the Percasse transfers are relevant, in terms of Tory analogues.
I would argue the now Conservative and Unionist party is not the traditional party, thanks to the Johnson insurgency, not least because it is neither conservative nor unionist in any real sense any more. I accept the starting points of Johnson and Le Pen were different but have ended up in a somewhat similar place. Le Pen wouldn't be winning 40% of the vote if she stuck to her fascist memes. She has had a reasonable campaign. Structurally Macron is in a better position in campaigning from the centre-right, although I am apparently not allowed to call it that on here, as he can pick up further votes from the left. Pécresse transfers are as irrelevant as the candidate herself. Her would-be voters were mostly already opting for Macron, while some had peeled off for Le Pen and were out of reach.
This is why no one takes you seriously. You are completely and utterly deluded and your rantings are just the sign of Brexit madness and you needing to take a long break from politics.
There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it
You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.
I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.
Johnson leads a mainstream party, Le Pen leads fascists.
If she gets 40% of the vote. Le Pen is mainstream.
Traditional instead of mainstream then.
After all, if the argument is Le Pan is not fascist/far right as she is mainstream as she gets 40% of the vote, then the argument Boris is far right likewise falls down.
I'd have though the Percasse transfers are relevant, in terms of Tory analogues.
I would argue the now Conservative and Unionist party is not the traditional party, thanks to the Johnson insurgency, not least because it is neither conservative nor unionist in any real sense any more. I accept the starting points of Johnson and Le Pen were different but have ended up in a somewhat similar place. Le Pen wouldn't be winning 40% of the vote if she stuck to her fascist memes. She has had a reasonable campaign. Structurally Macron is in a better position in campaigning from the centre-right, although I am apparently not allowed to call it that on here, as he can pick up further votes from the left. Pécresse transfers are as irrelevant as the candidate herself. Her would-be voters were mostly already opting for Macron, while some had peeled off for Le Pen and were out of reach.
The Conservative and Unionist Party ???
It might exist in Scotland but you'll struggle to find it on an English ballot paper.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
Not a projection, I think but rather current numbers. Lets hope Paris goes big for Macron. That 60% isnt far away...
To get to 60% would mean Macron down 6% from 2017. In many of the results so far, he's down more than that and few is he above that figure. May change with Paris.
The main cities still to declare. The suburbs of those cities are mostly solidly Macron. It may be that there will be a differential reduction, ie Macron vote down everywhere but a smaller drop in the cities compared with the countryside.
I'm sure it has been pointed out before but the old Angevin territories seem to have different voting patterns to eastern France.
Heritage of Catholic-centrist, farmer, pro-Europe politics: it was Giscard's heartland, too, and it was a good area for the UDF right up until the end of that party. More recently, strongly secularised and doing well economically, so not TOO Catholic or left-behind rural, instead moderate centre-left, which is exactly Macron's background. [Edit: I should add, in fairness, way less visible minority population than is typical for France; instead a tradition of emigration, think of a French version of Wales.]
You make it sound like the areas where the Liberals used to do well in the UK.
I haven’t read the Ange-alleged-knicker-flashing story in the Mail, but I just read the Beeb story online “Outcry over newspaper’s claim about UK MP’s legs” (is its headline the same in UK?). It mentions that the source claimed that she boasted about it after a few drinks on the Commons’ terrace.
I don’t believe that’s true, but.. If someone does have a video or recording of her saying that, would it make the publication of the story a less terrible thing?
Not a projection, I think but rather current numbers. Lets hope Paris goes big for Macron. That 60% isnt far away...
To get to 60% would mean Macron down 6% from 2017. In many of the results so far, he's down more than that and few is he above that figure. May change with Paris.
The main cities still to declare. The suburbs of those cities are mostly solidly Macron. It may be that there will be a differential reduction, ie Macron vote down everywhere but a smaller drop in the cities compared with the countryside.
That's possible although Seine-et-Marne has Macron down 7% from 2017 and the cities don't have that much Le Pen vote to squeeze.
Pretty shocking really that 41% would vote for a Russian apologist given the current circumstances in Ukraine.
There's a strong strand of opinion in right-wing French politics that thinks France and Russia should collaborate in bookending Europe as equal partners.
Don't forget Great Britain refers to our island. The not so great bit is currently Northern France. Maybe we should consider the repatriation of our property.
"Island". More than one, not to mention Ireland ...
Fair point. The question is, do we re-annexe Southern Ireland first?
Not a projection, I think but rather current numbers. Lets hope Paris goes big for Macron. That 60% isnt far away...
To get to 60% would mean Macron down 6% from 2017. In many of the results so far, he's down more than that and few is he above that figure. May change with Paris.
The main cities still to declare. The suburbs of those cities are mostly solidly Macron. It may be that there will be a differential reduction, ie Macron vote down everywhere but a smaller drop in the cities compared with the countryside.
That's possible although Seine-et-Marne has Macron down 7% from 2017 and the cities don't have that much Le Pen vote to squeeze.
By my calcs, Macron overperformed UNS in Seine-et-Marne (based on 58.7% nationwide) by 0.52%.
Now we can concentrate on the election that really matters, the UK local elections on 5th May. Johnson's fate depends on it.
i reporting tonight that plotters in Tories are co-ordinating more with a view to challenge if results are bad. 2019 plotters are talking to old skool plotters.
Labour though briefed the S Times that talk of a bad night for Tories is overblown and expectation management.
I'm sure it has been pointed out before but the old Angevin territories seem to have different voting patterns to eastern France.
Heritage of Catholic-centrist, farmer, pro-Europe politics: it was Giscard's heartland, too, and it was a good area for the UDF right up until the end of that party. More recently, strongly secularised and doing well economically, so not TOO Catholic or left-behind rural, instead moderate centre-left, which is exactly Macron's background. [Edit: I should add, in fairness, way less visible minority population than is typical for France; instead a tradition of emigration, think of a French version of Wales.]
You make it sound like the areas where the Liberals used to do well in the UK.
Up to a point - I think those areas had worse economic and social outcomes than Brittany. (Thinking about Cornwall, Welsh/Scottish borders and fringes.) And the Catholic tradition matters because across a bunch of different countries, regions with that tradition are more pro-European integration. Those areas in England and Wales tended to be non-Anglican but Protestant and they ended up anti-EU, is my impression, which did for the Lib Dems in the end (not that it's over for them yet, but it feels near over, right?).
A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
Now we can concentrate on the election that really matters, the UK local elections on 5th May. Johnson's fate depends on it.
i reporting tonight that plotters in Tories are co-ordinating more with a view to challenge if results are bad. 2019 plotters are talking to old skool plotters.
Labour though briefed the S Times that talk of a bad night for Tories is overblown and expectation management.
So how big a Labour lead on projected National Equivalent Vote would constitute a bad night? 6%? 8%? 10%?
What is the tipping point for these spineless plotters to actually do something?
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Indeed. And for the record I have never tipped Alaska (either way). The Ludicrous Mr Ed is either confusing me with someone else or is subject to bizarre delusions.
A bit closer than the exit poll then at the moment
Paris hasn't started to come in yet.
Nor has part of Le Pen's heartland in North East France however and some of the Paris suburbs have started reporting
4 Med coast deps + Vaucluse also still out and Le Pen likely to win some of these. But probably only the big cities eg Nice, Marseille, Toulon, Montpellier etc still counting here.
I'd have thought Le Pen would do well in those cities.
Now we can concentrate on the election that really matters, the UK local elections on 5th May. Johnson's fate depends on it.
i reporting tonight that plotters in Tories are co-ordinating more with a view to challenge if results are bad. 2019 plotters are talking to old skool plotters.
Labour though briefed the S Times that talk of a bad night for Tories is overblown and expectation management.
So how big a Labour lead on projected National Equivalent Vote would constitute a bad night? 6%? 8%? 10%?
What is the tipping point for these spineless plotters to actually do something?
Well into double digits, I suspect.
Labour has a long standing difficulty of translating poll results into local election results. They could well finish up just 3-4% ahead on NEV share.
Isn't it amazing johnsons conservatives and lepens manifesto....both pretty much lefty....yet apparently they are far right because....
Because you are even further right?
Ok what makes johnson or lepen far right when both are for a big state high tax regime and protectionism.....starter for 10 I wont take brexit for an answer. I am a liberal economically and socially I freely admit. But both brexit and immigration have been promulgated equally by the left at times so don't see them as right/left issues. So apart from those two area's where are johnson or lepen showing themselves to be far right rather than sort of lefty?
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Hang weights on it, love.
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
Hang weights on it, love.
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
Have you ever considered debating civilly without resorting to personal abuse?
You really are a complete and utter prick. Which I suppose answers your question.
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Indeed. And for the record I have never tipped Alaska (either way). The Ludicrous Mr Ed is either confusing me with someone else or is subject to bizarre delusions.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Indeed. And for the record I have never tipped Alaska (either way). The Ludicrous Mr Ed is either confusing me with someone else or is subject to bizarre delusions.
If I could be arsed, I’d find your posts but I can’t be arsed, especially as you seem to be some obsessed weirdo.
Now we can concentrate on the election that really matters, the UK local elections on 5th May. Johnson's fate depends on it.
i reporting tonight that plotters in Tories are co-ordinating more with a view to challenge if results are bad. 2019 plotters are talking to old skool plotters.
Labour though briefed the S Times that talk of a bad night for Tories is overblown and expectation management.
So how big a Labour lead on projected National Equivalent Vote would constitute a bad night? 6%? 8%? 10%?
What is the tipping point for these spineless plotters to actually do something?
Well into double digits, I suspect.
Labour has a long standing difficulty of translating poll results into local election results. They could well finish up just 3-4% ahead on NEV share.
Yes, I think a 4% lead is more likely than a 10% lead.
Of course, Bozo is the same liar whatever the result. And that should be the basis for Tory MPs sending in their letters.
Now we can concentrate on the election that really matters, the UK local elections on 5th May. Johnson's fate depends on it.
i reporting tonight that plotters in Tories are co-ordinating more with a view to challenge if results are bad. 2019 plotters are talking to old skool plotters.
Labour though briefed the S Times that talk of a bad night for Tories is overblown and expectation management.
So how big a Labour lead on projected National Equivalent Vote would constitute a bad night? 6%? 8%? 10%?
What is the tipping point for these spineless plotters to actually do something?
Well into double digits, I suspect.
Labour has a long standing difficulty of translating poll results into local election results. They could well finish up just 3-4% ahead on NEV share.
Yes, I think a 4% lead is more likely than a 10% lead.
Of course, Bozo is the same liar whatever the result. And that should be the basis for Tory MPs sending in their letters.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Indeed. And for the record I have never tipped Alaska (either way). The Ludicrous Mr Ed is either confusing me with someone else or is subject to bizarre delusions.
France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.
Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.
You have lost, and lost badly.
Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.
Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?
Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?
PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...
People can give betting tips that turn out to be wrong. To give any credence to somebody's tips you need to believe that they are acting dispassionately. As far as I can recall every betting comment I have ever seen from you concerning Trump and now Le Pen have always turned out to be overestimates in their favour.
Straws in the wind can be very useful but not when they always seem to point in the same direction.
Indeed. And for the record I have never tipped Alaska (either way). The Ludicrous Mr Ed is either confusing me with someone else or is subject to bizarre delusions.
If I could be arsed, I’d find your posts but I can’t be arsed, especially as you seem to be some obsessed weirdo.
"It's not what you know. It's what you can PROVE."
Comments
2017: Macron 72.2%
2022: Macron 59.2%
Perhaps those who wanted to make a protest in round one and/or ensure that Melanchon didn't reach round two.
.........In fact make it easier. Tell me where their policies differ?
2017: Macron 68.2%
2022: Macron 55.5%
2017 Macron 65.8%
2022 Macron 52.0%
I'm sure it has been pointed out before but the old Angevin territories seem to have different voting patterns to eastern France.
Their problem is that the German establishment is even more pro Russia.
Though others have been open about their bets, by, for example, choosing to live in places they feel safer.
(Of course, they may have erred, like the man who, before World War II, decided to move to a safe tropical island: Guadalcanal.)
Finistère
2017: Macron 77.3%
2022: Macron 67.5%
Litterally the same kind of crap we've heard for decades from the likes of the NF/BNP.
Guardian live map.
I wonder how true that is of British voters.
After all, if the argument is Le Pan is not fascist/far right as she is mainstream as she gets 40% of the vote, then the argument Boris is far right likewise falls down.
I'd have though the Percasse transfers are relevant, in terms of Tory analogues.
2017: Macron 72.2%
2022: Macron 64.2%
The Home Secretary has a particularly interesting back story. A previously confirmed hanger and flogger and someone not averse to conducting a parallel foreign policy to her own (previous) Government's.
https://www.ft.com/content/a16c4ecd-e835-4e71-a12d-c7bec9f34d7c
This is the sort of post I am meant to "engage" with is it?
2017: Macron 53.3%
2022: Macron 47.3%
Wants to win, politically
Wants to win, because betting position
Expects to win
Are three different things, but you don't understand that. Which is some sad ass shit.
It might exist in Scotland but you'll struggle to find it on an English ballot paper.
I travel to France a lot and I have only received friendship, but if I acted like you of course I would get the same in return.
I don’t believe that’s true, but.. If someone does have a video or recording of her saying that, would it make the publication of the story a less terrible thing?
Labour though briefed the S Times that talk of a bad night for Tories is overblown and expectation management.
What is the tipping point for these spineless plotters to actually do something?
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1518334780886167552?s=20&t=6p4pIAX_ocTfUbQqGh6uEg
Labour has a long standing difficulty of translating poll results into local election results. They could well finish up just 3-4% ahead on NEV share.
You apparently don't have any other posts in the system mentioning Alaska.
https://twitter.com/actufr_lyon/status/1518318605632430080
You started this with a, let me repeat myself, entirely dickless attack on *unnamed* pb commenters who you thought were le Pen "fanboys" but you can't actually identify any. You are a wanker with nothing interesting to say about politics or betting or betting on politics. The end.
Of course, Bozo is the same liar whatever the result. And that should be the basis for Tory MPs sending in their letters.
Of course, Bozo is the same liar whatever the result. And that should be the basis for Tory MPs sending in their letters.