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edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Indyref poll gives Better Together some good news

The Survation poll for the Daily Record is out now. The majority of the polling was conducted after the YouGov poll that had Yes ahead was published, but before Cameron, Clegg and Miliband had their sojourn in Scotland.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • adamandcat
    adamandcat Posts: 76
    Glory be!
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    second like Salmond.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    I heard a rumour that it's 52-48 to 'yes'.

    Too late?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    never

    Chris Deerin‏@chrisdeerin·15 secs
    I hear the SNP leaked the poll to draw the sting. What a shower. Record should sue them for the cost.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    never

    Chris Deerin‏@chrisdeerin·15 secs
    I hear the SNP leaked the poll to draw the sting. What a shower. Record should sue them for the cost.

    Very surprised McWhirter broke the embargo, even though he is a fully paid up Yes man these days.

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Was the release time brought forward? Why?
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgqPpdluoes
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    FPT:
    Mr. Rottenborough, that's like saying a date went very well, until the restaurant caught fire.

    Mr. T, premature jubilation is perhaps to be expected for a man of Salmond's age ;)

    FPT2: Mr. Me, cheers. Sensible policies for a happier Britain!

    On-topic: gosh, isn't it exciting?
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    SouthamObserver said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    never

    Chris Deerin‏@chrisdeerin·15 secs
    I hear the SNP leaked the poll to draw the sting. What a shower. Record should sue them for the cost.

    Very surprised McWhirter broke the embargo, even though he is a fully paid up Yes man these days.

    At least it should give you more value when you lump in on 'yes'.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    You might want to check the fieldwork dates.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My latest prediction by counting area:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/edit#gid=0
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Rumour has it the Yes/SNP leaked it to the draw the sting
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Cause survation are dirty poll-teasers and deserved to be punished!
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    Bit early to say anything conclusive. As Mike has said, polling in referendums is a pollsters' nightmare. How do you account for previous voting record? In 1707 there wasn't a referendum.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Rotherham sex abuse files are 'missing' from the archives:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29144266
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    AndyJS said:

    My latest prediction by counting area:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/edit#gid=0

    I'd be parking water cannons outside Dundee and Falkirk.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    My latest prediction by counting area:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/edit#gid=0

    Lots of value for you here if you are anyway confident of that:

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1898230
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Rumour has it the Yes/SNP leaked it to the draw the sting
    I don't really understand that logic... what difference will a few hours make?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Rumour has it the Yes/SNP leaked it to the draw the sting
    I don't really understand that logic... what difference will a few hours make?
    It would have dominated the newspapers and news cycles, this way, it is already old news by the morning
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    10% women gap. That's pretty out of line with the other polls is it not?
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Untipping point...


    Where's Stuart Dickson?
  • matt
    matt Posts: 3,789
    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    If there's one thing that Brown has been good at, it's making promises but not being around to clear up the mess. He's in his comfort zone.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Rotherham sex abuse files are 'missing' from the archives:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29144266

    Two more gentlemen of a certain persuasion were arrested in Aylesbury today as well...
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Rumour has it the Yes/SNP leaked it to the draw the sting
    I don't really understand that logic... what difference will a few hours make?
    Also it is simply stupid, if they did. Because YES have a big triumphant rally in George Sq tonight, which will now look embarrassing and premature.
    "We're alllllrrrrright!!!"
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Rumour has it the Yes/SNP leaked it to the draw the sting
    I don't really understand that logic... what difference will a few hours make?
    It would have dominated the newspapers and news cycles, this way, it is already old news by the morning
    'No' in lead could actually help 'Yes', even if the pollsters turn out to be wrong. I'm not in Scotland, but I get the impression that the 'Yes' supporters are a tad more likely to actually turn out on the day. If No in lead, might lead a tiny % of 'Noes' to not make the journey to ballot.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Neil said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    You might want to check the fieldwork dates.

    The majority of the polling was conducted after the YouGov poll but before the Cameron visit wasnt it?
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Rotherham sex abuse files are 'missing' from the archives:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29144266

    They were probably cleaned out in 2002 - at the same time as the home office inspector had all her files appropriated/seized/stolen.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    What's interesting, for me, is that my new, untested source told me this precise result this morning. And it turns out he was right.

    I didn't give the figures because it was just a rumour and this is the first time he's let me in on the info.

    So people are hearing this stuff hours before others, and the opportunities for making a killing on the currency and betting markets must be large.


    It's a kind of insider trading - but is it illegal?

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Rumour has it the Yes/SNP leaked it to the draw the sting
    I don't really understand that logic... what difference will a few hours make?
    Also it is simply stupid, if they did. Because YES have a big triumphant rally in George Sq tonight, which will now look embarrassing and premature.
    So far we've had, what, a dozen posts seriously discussing a completely unsubstantiated rumour of who leaked rumours of the much rumoured about poll. Is everyone not all rumoured out? I might go play some Fleetwood Mac now.

  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    From Mrs JackW

    I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.

    Thank you to those who sent kind messages.

    Mrs JackW

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Freggles, Sweden?

    Miss Plato, given the savaging Thacker, Wright and the current and ex-chief constables got the other day, and that news, it's got a long, long way to run. I'm somewhat surprised there hasn't been rioting or other violence.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Look at the weighting & Y/N figures for 16-24 year olds.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    matt said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    If there's one thing that Brown has been good at, it's making promises but not being around to clear up the mess. He's in his comfort zone.
    Say what you like about Brown, but we'd be in the Euro now without him, and a currency area with Scotland would be the least of our problems.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    JackW said:

    From Mrs JackW

    I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.

    Thank you to those who sent kind messages.

    Mrs JackW

    Wishing all the best to the young Jacobite.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Hide the scissors and lock the knife draw in the Dickson household
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SeanT
    "So people are hearing this stuff hours before others, and the opportunities for making a killing on the currency and betting markets must be large. "

    Similar to the stock markets? (yes they are regulated, but nothing is illegal until you are caught)
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    bigjohnowls said:

    Neil said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    You might want to check the fieldwork dates.

    The majority of the polling was conducted after the YouGov poll but before the Cameron visit wasnt it?
    What an idiot! The most likely explanation is that YG got it wrong. Take your party political specs off and focus!
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Excluding don't knows the 16-24 age group is NO by 61% in this poll.

    The figure for the 65+ age group is NO by 61%.

    Can you imagine how funny it will be if the 16 and 17 year olds enfranchised by Salmond save the Union?

    [The exact percentages are 61.26% vs 61.11% but there's no point in telling you which figure is for which age group.]
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mrs W, very glad to hear Mr. W is improving.

    Mr. StClare, on Look North last night a woman who did an investigation about a decade ago was told to shut up. She was visited by men who warned her if she didn't keep quiet her address would be given to the grooming gangs.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    It's Allllllllllrriiiiiiiiiiiiighttttt!
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Was the release time brought forward? Why?

    Rumour has it the Yes/SNP leaked it to the draw the sting
    I don't really understand that logic... what difference will a few hours make?
    Also it is simply stupid, if they did. Because YES have a big triumphant rally in George Sq tonight, which will now look embarrassing and premature.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Excluding don't knows the 16-24 age group is NO by 61% in this poll.

    The figure for the 65+ age group is NO by 61%.

    Can you imagine how funny it will be if the 16 and 17 year olds enfranchised by Salmond save the Union?

    [The exact percentages are 61.26% vs 61.11% but there's no point in telling you which figure is for which age group.]

    I don't think anyone is doing exit polling, so we'll never know!
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Pong said:

    Look at the weighting & Y/N figures for 16-24 year olds.

    V. interesting. It was Salmond who wanted them in the vote.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    The silly Cyberunionist NO campaign is full of negatives IMHO.

    "The Scots are too stupid to rule themselves"
    "The Scots are too poor to rule themselves"
    "The Scots are too anti-English to rule themselves"
    "HM The Queen will have a heart attack and die if the Scots vote yes"
    "Scotland will immediately be consumed by the ocean if they vote yes"
    "There will be all-out global thermonuclear war if the Scots vote yes"
    "The Sun will go Nova and destroy the entire solar system if the Scots vote yes"

    Er, you get the picture!

    :)
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I know - I think everyone is just too stunned to take it all in. And don't want to think about it...
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Freggles, Sweden?

    Miss Plato, given the savaging Thacker, Wright and the current and ex-chief constables got the other day, and that news, it's got a long, long way to run. I'm somewhat surprised there hasn't been rioting or other violence.

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:


    But it makes sense, as all the scares about mortgages, pensions, jobs, currency, bank deposits, have suddenly become VERY real as the markets have got spooked. It's been all over the papers.

    And we know women are more risk-averse than men, so they are more likely to be spooked by this stuff.

    I have had some twitter exchanges today with a Yes supporter, who still reckons the statement from Standard Life was scaremongering, and they were bluffing.

    Of course she lives in London...
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Where's malcolmg gone?

    Is this a turnip free thread?
    Freggles said:

    Untipping point...


    Where's Stuart Dickson?

  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JackW
    Keep him away from the brandy, even if he claims it is "medicinal" ;-)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    I was thinking, if Scotland does go her own way, would that mean McDonald's would have to re-brand itself "Donald's" in the rUK?

    :)
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    TSE: "For me this is without doubt the most exciting time in British politics since the election that never was"

    It's astonishing, in terms of implications, but I think it's hard to beat the novelty and the many twists and turns of the period between close of polls at GE2010 and Cameron entering No 10 however many days later. Nobody knew what was going to happen from one day to the next!
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Do you remember Don?

    He was a super source for polling info before embargo - and had to be very careful about when he told us/only when we were running off in the wrong direction.

    Didn't he work for the security services? Or BBC Monitoring at one time?
    SeanT said:

    What's interesting, for me, is that my new, untested source told me this precise result this morning. And it turns out he was right.

    I didn't give the figures because it was just a rumour and this is the first time he's let me in on the info.

    So people are hearing this stuff hours before others, and the opportunities for making a killing on the currency and betting markets must be large.

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    edited September 2014
    Plato said:

    Where's malcolmg gone?

    Is this a turnip free thread?

    Freggles said:

    Untipping point...


    Where's Stuart Dickson?

    Turnips? Isn't Stuart D more into Swedes?

    :)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Bottom_To_Top: Alex Salmond says he can finance the Socialist EU State of Scotland if oil prices remain above $100 a barrel. Oops. http://t.co/gRLb1zaeuT
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    But it makes sense, as all the scares about mortgages, pensions, jobs, currency, bank deposits, have suddenly become VERY real as the markets have got spooked. It's been all over the papers.

    And we know women are more risk-averse than men, so they are more likely to be spooked by this stuff.

    I have had some twitter exchanges today with a Yes supporter, who still reckons the statement from Standard Life was scaremongering, and they were bluffing.

    Of course she lives in London...
    I thought that was a fatuously stupid remark by Salmond "Standard Life are lying", is what he said, in effect. He callied their statement "Nonsense" and "scaremongering".

    Scaremongering. Again. Can he really use this word all the way through to Sept 18?

    He should have said Yes a few tiny offices may go but with lower corporation tax they will be back in a week.
    'Everyone's wrong except for me!'
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited September 2014
    Mr. Sykes, that period was remarkable and also hilarious because the useless journalists, torn from the teat of leaks and party spin, had no sodding clue what was going on in the negotiations.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JackW said:

    From Mrs JackW

    I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.

    Thank you to those who sent kind messages.

    Mrs JackW

    Salutations to PB's Cincinnatus.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Neil said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    You might want to check the fieldwork dates.

    The majority of the polling was conducted after the YouGov poll but before the Cameron visit wasnt it?
    What an idiot! The most likely explanation is that YG got it wrong. Take your party political specs off and focus!
    So do you think there has been any rebound to no in the past few days.

    Do you not think Brown is popular among the Labour swing vote that will decide this.

    Do you not think Scots despise the Tories

    If not you are the idiot
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Still holds true when looking at any "indy" poll, the passion for "yes" remains far higher than for "no", which will show in turnout, (by how much is anyone's guess)
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JackW said:

    From Mrs JackW

    I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.

    Thank you to those who sent kind messages.

    Mrs JackW

    Buy lots of shoes while he's not looking.
  • __Bobajob__
    __Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    SeanT said:

    What's interesting, for me, is that my new, untested source told me this precise result this morning. And it turns out he was right.

    I didn't give the figures because it was just a rumour and this is the first time he's let me in on the info.

    So people are hearing this stuff hours before others, and the opportunities for making a killing on the currency and betting markets must be large.

    Very true. And if pollsters really wanted to keep the numbers under wraps they wouldn't poll ramp. They would just publish the numbers.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Bob__Sykes said:

    TSE: "For me this is without doubt the most exciting time in British politics since the election that never was"

    It's astonishing, in terms of implications, but I think it's hard to beat the novelty and the many twists and turns of the period between close of polls at GE2010 and Cameron entering No 10 however many days later. Nobody knew what was going to happen from one day to the next!

    I still think this is more interesting, the outcome of this will determine the fate of the greatest and most important political union in history
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Great to hear Mr W will be back home with you soon.

    Px
    JackW said:

    From Mrs JackW

    I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.

    Thank you to those who sent kind messages.

    Mrs JackW

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Scott_P said:

    Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?

    Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Looking at this from abroad over the past few days, Labour really do look like a bunch of dead ducks. There must be concerns about next year, whatever the polls say.

    These are supposed to be their heartlands. They are meant to deliver motivated labour working class votes by the boatload to give no a resounding win, spurred on by their leader.

    But that is certainly not happening.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Wasnt aware JackW was ill.

    I thought he was on holiday.

    Hope all goes well Jack
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Sweet irony :^ )
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Excluding don't knows the 16-24 age group is NO by 61% in this poll.

    The figure for the 65+ age group is NO by 61%.

    Can you imagine how funny it will be if the 16 and 17 year olds enfranchised by Salmond save the Union?

    [The exact percentages are 61.26% vs 61.11% but there's no point in telling you which figure is for which age group.]

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles, have you ever heard of something called the Roman Empire?
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 7m
    All #IndyRef polls are within the margin of error of swinging it either way. To say it'll be close is an understatement.

    A very wise tweet. It would beholden all of us to calm down and collect our winnings daily, quietly. Of course those in the know seldom lose. I still believe that NO will do it, just.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors

    His portrayal of life in a separate Scotland under President for Life Eck is uncanny

    www.tags4crew.com/ekmps/shops/tags4/images/air-scotia-crew-tag-1838-p.jpg

    Did anyone else see the North Korean style welcome for Kim Jong Eck on the campaign trail this morning, before business leaders and pollsters started pissing on his chips?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, have you ever heard of something called the Roman Empire?

    The British Empire was more important.

    Think of the size and scope of British Empire to The Roman Empire, we helped end slavery.

    It also helped us win two world wars.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited September 2014
    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 7m
    All #IndyRef polls are within the margin of error of swinging it either way. To say it'll be close is an understatement.

    A very wise tweet. It would beholden all of us to calm down and collect our winnings daily, quietly. Of course those in the know seldom lose. I still believe that NO will do it, just.

    Hm, the margin of error is not uniform distribution between the lower and upper bounds, it is more probable to be within the central region of the margin of error, than outside. A poll at No 53, Y 47, is much more likely to be a No lead than a Yes lead.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2014
    it took me a good 10 mins to realise that the Nightcrawler from X-Men was Eli Gold in The Good Wife.

    I just couldn't place him - then again he was painted blue in X-Men
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?

    Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Plato said:

    I know - I think everyone is just too stunned to take it all in. And don't want to think about it...

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Freggles, Sweden?

    Miss Plato, given the savaging Thacker, Wright and the current and ex-chief constables got the other day, and that news, it's got a long, long way to run. I'm somewhat surprised there hasn't been rioting or other violence.

    Have been wondering if the social services in Rochdale & Rotherham had had some common training providers, likewise Gtr Manchester and South Yorks Polis. The lack of purpose is worrying.

    In any case some of the votes in Heywood & Middleton might wonder if their council is as useless as that in Rotherham.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited September 2014
    Ironic considering Peter Kellner's article suggesting Survation was vastly over rating the YES side just a short while ago

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/01/why-do-polls-scotland-vary-so-much/
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Team Scotland...

    @LynseySharp: To all the haterz sending me abuse....... http://t.co/1ztQzpQBY9

    Nasty, Nasty, Nat ****wits
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SeanT
    No, there has, and always will be a level of passion for independence that is not reflected in most of the pro unionists. This has been so since I was old enough to attend my first "count".
    How much difference it will make is down to the usual factors, but make no mistake, it is there.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato said:

    it took me a good 10 mins to realise that the Nightcrawler from X-Men was Eli Gold in The Good Wife.

    I just couldn't place him - then again he was painted blue in X-Men

    I was going to say he was the least convincing "Russian" Bond villain ever, until I remembered Robbie Coltrane
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Dr. Spyn, lack of purpose is charitable in the extreme to South Yorkshire police.

    Mr. Eagles, when Rome fell almost all Europe fell into centuries of Dark Ages. The Empire, and its previous political incarnations, also set up some fundamental aspects of law, improved learning, trade, education and was very significant in dragging mankind from barbarity towards civilisation.

    The Eastern Empire also helped protect Europe, during the Dark Ages, from being overrun by caliphates or Turks. But for Byzantium the whole continent could have fallen.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Plato said:

    Do you remember Don?

    He was a super source for polling info before embargo - and had to be very careful about when he told us/only when we were running off in the wrong direction.

    Didn't he work for the security services? Or BBC Monitoring at one time?

    I seem to remember Don, or at least I think it was he, letting us know about the expenses scandal story (Telegraph got the CD of expenses) before it broke, and that was a massive political story.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Neil said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    You might want to check the fieldwork dates.

    The majority of the polling was conducted after the YouGov poll but before the Cameron visit wasnt it?
    What an idiot! The most likely explanation is that YG got it wrong. Take your party political specs off and focus!
    So do you think there has been any rebound to no in the past few days.

    Do you not think Brown is popular among the Labour swing vote that will decide this.

    Do you not think Scots despise the Tories

    If not you are the idiot
    Nearly half a million Scots vote Tory. Around 35% of Scots Labour voters are trending Yes. You're playing around with Westminster politics which has caused this problem. Labour are sxxt scared of losing their Scottish fiefdom. Not a shred of evidence that big Gordo has changed the polling apart from your pathetic wishful thinking.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I gather he's very good in Cabaret on stage right now - he's the MC.
    Scott_P said:

    Plato said:

    it took me a good 10 mins to realise that the Nightcrawler from X-Men was Eli Gold in The Good Wife.

    I just couldn't place him - then again he was painted blue in X-Men

    I was going to say he was the least convincing "Russian" Bond villain ever, until I remembered Robbie Coltrane
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    "An independent Scotland would be financially unstable"

    George Soros in the FT

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/60925130-3831-11e4-a687-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3CiuD8aQ5

    Pah. What does he know.

    Yoonyoonist turnip
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Oh, I'd forgotten that. What a scandal that was at the time.

    It seems so passe now. I still can't get over Anthony Sheen [?] intv when he compared his house to Balmoral - shame that full intv has gone from YTube.
    glw said:

    Plato said:

    Do you remember Don?

    He was a super source for polling info before embargo - and had to be very careful about when he told us/only when we were running off in the wrong direction.

    Didn't he work for the security services? Or BBC Monitoring at one time?

    I seem to remember Don, or at least I think it was he, letting us know about the expenses scandal story (Telegraph got the CD of expenses) before it broke, and that was a massive political story.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Plato said:

    Oh, I'd forgotten that. What a scandal that was at the time.

    It seems so passe now. I still can't get over Anthony Sheen [?] intv when he compared his house to Balmoral - shame that full intv has gone from YTube.

    It all seems quite petty now, by each morning's Telegraph was a hoot for weeks on end as the details dripped out. "What the hell is a duck house?" "Moat cleaning?"
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Trouble in Team Murdoch?

    @rupertmurdoch: What happened to the Scottish Enlightenment? US owes more to it than England. How would Salmond rule?
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited September 2014
    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Neil said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Gordon saved the Union

    Lets hope Cameron's visit today doesn't fook it up

    You might want to check the fieldwork dates.

    The majority of the polling was conducted after the YouGov poll but before the Cameron visit wasnt it?
    What an idiot! The most likely explanation is that YG got it wrong. Take your party political specs off and focus!
    So do you think there has been any rebound to no in the past few days.

    Do you not think Brown is popular among the Labour swing vote that will decide this.

    Do you not think Scots despise the Tories

    If not you are the idiot
    2010 general election. SNP 491,000 19.9%, Tories: 412,000 `16.7% all of 2.4% less of . You could equally ask "Do you not think Scots despise the SNP", in fact after this weeks events I suspect quite a few do. There might well be some surprises come 2015 in rural scottish seats where tories were 2nd in 2010. A little wager on places like Angus, Banff, Moray and Perth, as well as the libdem lowland and border seats might not be such a bad idea.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    edited September 2014
    I can't help but wonder if 'yes' have convinced everyone they're going to convince. I know 'shy unionist' and 'cybernat' or 'scotnat' have become clichés of this campaign, but what I feel, living here, is that there's a definite inequality of viewpoint. It's only my very anecdotal experience. In the office, Yes is noisily endorsed, and No is muttered between supporters when they leave the room. Yes is plastered over all the windows and No is vandalised and ripped up where some brave soul has tried it. Alex Salmond walks around receiving adulation, No campaigners get barricaded in pubs. Yes supporters spam your facebook feed with every bit of drivel with a yes slant, No supporters are registered with an unexpected 'like' for something with a No slant. As we near the finishing post I'm seeing more callousness, and carelessness in expressing their views from some Yes supporters too. I find this faintly oppressive, and perhaps others do to? Perhaps they're getting tired of being harangued? I appreciate it's not in line with the polling, so it's probably wishful thinking.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    FPT
    JonnyJimmy said:

    » show previous quotes
    While trying to cut the Scots Chancellor created deficit with overly-severe-austerity, according to the likes of you!

    Did you read what I wrote? I wrote that Brown & Darling had borrowed more than 8% of the debt; do you think that's wrong?

    It is a moronic question from a moron.
  • Stuart_Dickson
    Stuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Ladbrokes - IndyRef - Turnout 80-85% - SUSPENDED
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    edited September 2014
    Plato said:

    Oh, I'd forgotten that. What a scandal that was at the time.

    It seems so passe now. I still can't get over Anthony Sheen [?] intv when he compared his house to Balmoral - shame that full intv has gone from YTube.

    glw said:

    Plato said:

    Do you remember Don?

    He was a super source for polling info before embargo - and had to be very careful about when he told us/only when we were running off in the wrong direction.

    Didn't he work for the security services? Or BBC Monitoring at one time?

    I seem to remember Don, or at least I think it was he, letting us know about the expenses scandal story (Telegraph got the CD of expenses) before it broke, and that was a massive political story.
    Ah there you are @Plato‌ sorry been away for a couple of weeks but wanted to say that I am now at the end of S2 of Scandal and as you say it's not short of twists and turns - I agree with the assessment: bonkers but it works!

    Scotland? Haven't followed this thread but the crying shame is that the implications are huge but, put simply, they are unexplainable to the man on the Edinburgh tram and that's no insult to the man on the Edinburgh tram.

    How are random members of the public supposed to know the difference between currency union and dollarisation and partial dollarisation and currency board or the implications of having a banks' insurance fund or lender of last resort or...or...or...

    It is too much to ask which leaves emotion (the "FREEDOM" argument). And that's fine but there is a cost to that decision and I don't think anyone is getting what that is and for how long it will last.

    Betting wise, and apols if I am the 2057th person to say it but surely No must be hugely good value at any price?
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Good speech by Cameron. A rare one where he sounded like he meant it.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    JackW said:

    From Mrs JackW

    I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.

    Thank you to those who sent kind messages.

    Mrs JackW

    Edinburgh too much for him , slipped on his astroturf and burst his ARSE no doubt
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    The pound is up 0.7% against the Euro.

    Anybody know why?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Stuart & malc.. arriving at the comments sections a minute apart is enough to make the conspiracy nuts go crazy! I'm sure you do it on purpose :p
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    This poll comes as some relief and I am glad the pound has firmed up to £1=$1.61 USD. I thought the fall would continue today but this firming in the pound occured before 1pm, so I assume somebody leaked the numbers.

    However, we still have the ICM poll on the weekend and, of course, the vote itself next week.

    My finances become difficult at £1= $1.55, and too difficult at £1=$1.50. So I am keen to insulate myself against a bad fall. I thought of placing some money with IGIndex in one of their newfangled online dealing thingies (I have an account but I'm too afraid to touch it - FLASHING LIGHTS! TECHNOLOGY! BAD!) and may still do so, but I thought I'd see if there were alternatives first.

    So. I need to insure myself against a GBP fall to $1.50USD, and ideally to $1.55USD. Other than IGIndex and other online spread betting forums, can anybody suggest a method?
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Polls show Gordo is trusted and respected by more Scots, than Miliband, for sure.

    Where is Miliband trusted and respected? He's meant to be the leader of a government in waiting, campaigning in one of his power bases.

    And yet Miliband is not much more than a bit part player in all this. He's irrelevant.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    Trouble in Team Murdoch?

    @rupertmurdoch: What happened to the Scottish Enlightenment? US owes more to it than England. How would Salmond rule?

    No Act of Union, no Scottish Enlightenment. Murdoch is a plastic.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Plato said:

    Where's malcolmg gone?

    Is this a turnip free thread?

    Freggles said:

    Untipping point...


    Where's Stuart Dickson?

    So you cannot even read now. Some of us are actually gainfully employed you know. Not like most of teh frothers on here basking on JSA.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    From the DT:

    18.45 Mumsnet, the website where political careers go to die, has given its verdict on Alex Salmond vs Alistair Darling. Mr Salmond came off worse, judging from the comments which said his answers were "patronising" and "disingenuous".

    "It seems to me on balance that Mumsnetters are NOT in favour of independence as a result of the ongoing lack of clarity, and a deeply held suspicion that Salmond is attempting to blinker the truth," said one user.

    "Mr Salmond, your tone is hugely, hugely patronising. You are doing yourself no favours," said another user.

    "The disingenuousness over the currency and EU are flabbergasting," said a third.

    "If I see the word 'scaremongering' used on more time in response to people's honest and very real worries I will throw a hissy fit my children would be proud of," another user said. "'m so utterly sick of it."
This discussion has been closed.

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