Still holds true when looking at any "indy" poll, the passion for "yes" remains far higher than for "no", which will show in turnout, (by how much is anyone's guess)
This is bollocks. NO people - I'm now in touch with a lot of them, because of my blogs - are wildly passionate. They just don't shout and bluster like YES, probably because they tend to be older, richer, better educated, more bourgeois/conservative. More, well, British.
But they are grimly and firmly determined to win, if they can, and get every single vote out. They are fighting for their identity, after all. Scots will still be Scots after YES, the Brits will have their flag and nationality taken away, north of the Border. They are also terrified - rightly - of the economic consequences.
I reckon both sides will turn out in large numbers.
I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.
The political will of rUK will decide if there is one and there is no way rUK will be underwriting Scottish banks. And if Salmond wants to walk away without taking debt, good luck on getting loaned any money.
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
18.45 Mumsnet, the website where political careers go to die, has given its verdict on Alex Salmond vs Alistair Darling. Mr Salmond came off worse, judging from the comments which said his answers were "patronising" and "disingenuous".
"It seems to me on balance that Mumsnetters are NOT in favour of independence as a result of the ongoing lack of clarity, and a deeply held suspicion that Salmond is attempting to blinker the truth," said one user.
"Mr Salmond, your tone is hugely, hugely patronising. You are doing yourself no favours," said another user.
"The disingenuousness over the currency and EU are flabbergasting," said a third.
"If I see the word 'scaremongering' used on more time in response to people's honest and very real worries I will throw a hissy fit my children would be proud of," another user said. "'m so utterly sick of it."
No more scientific than quote cherrypicking maybe, but Yes won Mumsnet's poll, which the DT strangely don't mention (at least in your repost)
Picture the scene at the Labour conference if there is a No - "Alistair Darling the man who held the Union together". Day after the vote. Labour to 'own' the win?
18.45 Mumsnet, the website where political careers go to die, has given its verdict on Alex Salmond vs Alistair Darling. Mr Salmond came off worse, judging from the comments which said his answers were "patronising" and "disingenuous".
"It seems to me on balance that Mumsnetters are NOT in favour of independence as a result of the ongoing lack of clarity, and a deeply held suspicion that Salmond is attempting to blinker the truth," said one user.
"Mr Salmond, your tone is hugely, hugely patronising. You are doing yourself no favours," said another user.
"The disingenuousness over the currency and EU are flabbergasting," said a third.
"If I see the word 'scaremongering' used on more time in response to people's honest and very real worries I will throw a hissy fit my children would be proud of," another user said. "'m so utterly sick of it."
No more scientific than quote cherrypicking maybe, but Yes won Mumsnet's poll, which the DT strangely don't mention (at least in your repost)
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
You know I just can't believe that Salmond really actually believes in Scottish Independence. Otherwise he might actually try and sell it rather than sky fairies
"Mr. Eagles, when Rome fell almost all Europe fell into centuries of Dark Ages."
That is surely a terribly old fashioned and inaccurate view of history. After the fall of the Roman Empire there arose some very interesting and cultured civilisations in its wake. The idea that we were grubbing around in the dark leading nasty brutish and short lives because the Romans had gone home is not borne out by archaeology or written records.
10% women gap. That's pretty out of line with the other polls is it not?
But it makes sense, as all the scares about mortgages, pensions, jobs, currency, bank deposits, have suddenly become VERY real as the markets have got spooked. It's been all over the papers.
And we know women are more risk-averse than men, so they are more likely to be spooked by this stuff.
Spooked?
What is so admirable about taking unnecessary risks?
This whole independence thing is stupid, based on misrepresentation, manipulation and twisting of the truth. It is not like England is an evil dictatorship. It is not Franco's Spain, Pohl Pot's Cambodia or Galtieri's Argentina. You will not get "disappeared" here and when something does go wrong efforts are made to fix it.
The UK is a good place to live. It is stable, tolerant, wealthy and no one here lives in fear. It has its faults because nowhere is perfect but about half the world (or maybe 3/4) would gladly swap places with anyone here.
18.45 Mumsnet, the website where political careers go to die, has given its verdict on Alex Salmond vs Alistair Darling. Mr Salmond came off worse, judging from the comments which said his answers were "patronising" and "disingenuous".
"It seems to me on balance that Mumsnetters are NOT in favour of independence as a result of the ongoing lack of clarity, and a deeply held suspicion that Salmond is attempting to blinker the truth," said one user.
"Mr Salmond, your tone is hugely, hugely patronising. You are doing yourself no favours," said another user.
"The disingenuousness over the currency and EU are flabbergasting," said a third.
"If I see the word 'scaremongering' used on more time in response to people's honest and very real worries I will throw a hissy fit my children would be proud of," another user said. "'m so utterly sick of it."
Is that UK wide or just Scotland? As Bobajob says Yes won the poll & it was just for Scottish mums.
The only way Scotland stands a chance of being successful as an independent nation is if they have their own currency. Even then they will need to put up taxes and cut services but you know - at least it will work.
Just a betting point. What if Gordon+Murphy+Westminster 3+Home Rule really are delivering the goods (regardless of what any of us think) and the Labour vote in particular is cascading back into the No column? In that case, the No 55-59 bracket might start to look plausible. Isn't there a firm that's offering good odds on spreads like that? (Genuine question, I can't remember)
I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.
Thank you to those who sent kind messages.
Mrs JackW
That's great - we look forward to his full recovery.
I get the impression he has really taken to being able to have fun with powerful people and groups with a few words on Twitter, not just in closed meetings of business and politics.
Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?
Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors
Because I know you love this shit - and malcolmg hates it - I have partied with Alan on Hawaii. He's good value!
Just what I would expect from an arse licking loser
I thought only NO were rude, even in the face of provocation. For the record, I've always said I thought Yes would win, in case I should ever do something else that deserves rebuke.
This poll comes as some relief and I am glad the pound has firmed up to £1=$1.61 USD. I thought the fall would continue today but this firming in the pound occured before 1pm, so I assume somebody leaked the numbers.
However, we still have the ICM poll on the weekend and, of course, the vote itself next week.
My finances become difficult at £1= $1.55, and too difficult at £1=$1.50. So I am keen to insulate myself against a bad fall. I thought of placing some money with IGIndex in one of their newfangled online dealing thingies (I have an account but I'm too afraid to touch it - FLASHING LIGHTS! TECHNOLOGY! BAD!) and may still do so, but I thought I'd see if there were alternatives first.
So. I need to insure myself against a GBP fall to $1.50USD, and ideally to $1.55USD. Other than IGIndex and other online spread betting forums, can anybody suggest a method?
Don't even THINK about forex spreadbetting on IGIndex, they impose compulsory stop losses and everyone gets stopped out.
There was an account of a lunch they had with ? an FT blogger.
IG: 100% of our forex punters lose their money.
blogger: Ho, ho. But I expect the real figure is quite high, 80-90% is it?
18.45 Mumsnet, the website where political careers go to die, has given its verdict on Alex Salmond vs Alistair Darling. Mr Salmond came off worse, judging from the comments which said his answers were "patronising" and "disingenuous".
"It seems to me on balance that Mumsnetters are NOT in favour of independence as a result of the ongoing lack of clarity, and a deeply held suspicion that Salmond is attempting to blinker the truth," said one user.
"Mr Salmond, your tone is hugely, hugely patronising. You are doing yourself no favours," said another user.
"The disingenuousness over the currency and EU are flabbergasting," said a third.
"If I see the word 'scaremongering' used on more time in response to people's honest and very real worries I will throw a hissy fit my children would be proud of," another user said. "'m so utterly sick of it."
No more scientific than quote cherrypicking maybe, but Yes won Mumsnet's poll, which the DT strangely don't mention (at least in your repost)
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
How many times has Krugman predicted the collapse of the Eurozone?
One thing is for sure, Yes have won the campaign. A far better campaign on every level than No. But No should still squeak home in the referendum.
Perhaps, although even should that disappointment occur, I think the Yes side have had a good enough time of it that they know the will yet be won before too long.
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
How many times has Krugman predicted the collapse of the Eurozone?
He's so insufferable I can take no comfort in his words now they are actually the sort of things I would like to hear.
18.45 Mumsnet, the website where political careers go to die, has given its verdict on Alex Salmond vs Alistair Darling. Mr Salmond came off worse, judging from the comments which said his answers were "patronising" and "disingenuous".
"It seems to me on balance that Mumsnetters are NOT in favour of independence as a result of the ongoing lack of clarity, and a deeply held suspicion that Salmond is attempting to blinker the truth," said one user.
"Mr Salmond, your tone is hugely, hugely patronising. You are doing yourself no favours," said another user.
"The disingenuousness over the currency and EU are flabbergasting," said a third.
"If I see the word 'scaremongering' used on more time in response to people's honest and very real worries I will throw a hissy fit my children would be proud of," another user said. "'m so utterly sick of it."
No more scientific than quote cherrypicking maybe, but Yes won Mumsnet's poll, which the DT strangely don't mention (at least in your repost)
Just a betting point. What if Gordon+Murphy+Westminster 3+Home Rule really are delivering the goods (regardless of what any of us think) and the Labour vote in particular is cascading back into the No column? In that case, the No 55-59 bracket might start to look plausible. Isn't there a firm that's offering good odds on spreads like that? (Genuine question, I can't remember)
I apologize for interrupting your discussions but in response to messages and emails from members of the pb site we've been advised today that my husband will be fit to return home this weekend for a period of convalescence.
Thank you to those who sent kind messages.
Mrs JackW
That's great - we look forward to his full recovery.
I'd be delighted if Brown's intervention was proven to have played a role in turning the tide, should that be the outcome.
Let's face it, he owes the UK something in return.....
Oh, I'd forgotten that. What a scandal that was at the time.
It seems so passe now. I still can't get over Anthony Sheen [?] intv when he compared his house to Balmoral - shame that full intv has gone from YTube.
It all seems quite petty now, by each morning's Telegraph was a hoot for weeks on end as the details dripped out. "What the hell is a duck house?" "Moat cleaning?"
Taking a quick look at the age demographic differcnes between the Survation and YouGov poll. They really are quite stark.
16-24 years olds make up 10.2% of the YouGov survey, they make up 5.9% of the Survation poll. They are 60/40 to vote Yes in the YouGov poll (they are up weighted by 50%) in Survation they are 39/61 to vote Yes (and they are up weighted 2.25 times).
Haven't had time to look at the Panelbase poll yet to see what demo differences there are in the sample.
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
How many times has Krugman predicted the collapse of the Eurozone?
The Eurozone is collapsed. Unemployment is 12% seven years after the crisis.
The UK is a good place to live. It is stable, tolerant, wealthy and no one here lives in fear.
Quite complacent given the recent news about Rotherham, etc.
No. As I said, it is not perfect. Things will go wrong. Bad things will happen. But in general they get fixed / corrected / whatever and the good outweighs the bad many times.
Go live in a Latin American dictatorship and see how you fare, or the middle East where they will kill you just for being gay.
"Mr. Eagles, when Rome fell almost all Europe fell into centuries of Dark Ages."
That is surely a terribly old fashioned and inaccurate view of history. After the fall of the Roman Empire there arose some very interesting and cultured civilisations in its wake. The idea that we were grubbing around in the dark leading nasty brutish and short lives because the Romans had gone home is not borne out by archaeology or written records.
The dark ages were clearly worse than the Pax Romana, even if recent discoveries mean they were a bit better than we used to think.
His 4/1 against >85% turnout does however look like value. I think just about every sentient Scotsman is going to vote, some of them twice.
Not sure. Glasgow Central postal vote so far is 70%, apparently, and in my experience postal voters nearly all vote at once. OK, Glasgow C is likely to have high mobility and generally lower turnout than most, but 85% sounds very high. About 5-10% of the electoral roll is going to be travelling, ill or even dead.
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
How many times has Krugman predicted the collapse of the Eurozone?
Still, in the last two days you've got the head of BP, the head of Standard Chartered, Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman, the analysts at Credit Suisse, the analysts at Deutsche Bank, the leader writers of the FT, the Australian National Bank, the head of the Bank of England, the advisors to HSBC, the advisors to Nomura, and now George Soros the famous international US financier. all saying that Salmond's idea for currency is insane, that an independent Scotland would face severe economic crisis from the off, and that independence is therefore an absurd risk.
I know, I know, they're all "scaremongering", right? All of them. Perhaps they are got together to hatch the plot last week in a pub in Cricklewood.
'Eck against the World!'
Perhaps they cooked it up at Davos, or a Skulls and Bones poker and beer shindig at Tony Blairs one evening?
malcolm, would you like to buy some tartan tinfoil to make a protective bonnet?
Salmond had worked as an economist in the early 70s, yet his touching belief that he can renegade on Scotland's share of UK debt is disingenuous. Who would lend to an Independent Scotland if he tried that cunning stunt? Add on his flaky approach to a currency union, I can only conclude that he has either burnt his economics texts or wasn't serious about Independence in the first place.
Salmond had worked as an economist in the early 70s, yet his touching belief that he can renegade on Scotland's share of UK debt is disingenuous. Who would lend to an Independent Scotland if he tried that cunning stunt? Add on his flaky approach to a currency union, I can only conclude that he has either burnt his economics texts or wasn't serious about Independence in the first place.
Go live in a Latin American dictatorship and see how you fare, or the middle East where they will kill you just for being gay.
To be fair, I'd be more likely to be killed for being British in the Middle East. I should have been clearer: the complacent bit was the no one lives in fear bit.
The UK is a good place to live. It is stable, tolerant, wealthy and no one here lives in fear.
Quite complacent given the recent news about Rotherham, etc.
No. As I said, it is not perfect. Things will go wrong. Bad things will happen. But in general they get fixed / corrected / whatever and the good outweighs the bad many times.
Go live in a Latin American dictatorship and see how you fare, or the middle East where they will kill you just for being gay.
There's not many Latin American dictatorships left. But I'm sure the THOUSANDS of children systematically raped by gangs that had their crimes kept on the quiet, and are STILL having their crimes being kept on the quiet, will feel better knowing they'd do worse in Iran.
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
How many times has Krugman predicted the collapse of the Eurozone?
Still, in the last two days you've got the head of BP, the head of Standard Chartered, Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman, the analysts at Credit Suisse, the analysts at Deutsche Bank, the leader writers of the FT, the Australian National Bank, the head of the Bank of England, the advisors to HSBC, the advisors to Nomura, and now George Soros the famous international US financier. all saying that Salmond's idea for currency is insane, that an independent Scotland would face severe economic crisis from the off, and that independence is therefore an absurd risk.
I know, I know, they're all "scaremongering", right? All of them. Perhaps they all got together to hatch the plot last week in a pub in Cricklewood.
Surely Better Together can put all the quotes together on a leaflet and have it delivered on mass? The SNP can hardly claim Credit Suisse and Nomura are all part of the London elite.
Salmond knows its crazy. He just doesn't care. He is a hardcore Nat. To him a poor and independent Scotland is better than a rich Scotland in the union.
Salmond is thick. He is just gambling the electorate is.
Salmond had worked as an economist in the early 70s, yet his touching belief that he can renegade on Scotland's share of UK debt is disingenuous. Who would lend to an Independent Scotland if he tried that cunning stunt? Add on his flaky approach to a currency union, I can only conclude that he has either burnt his economics texts or wasn't serious about Independence in the first place.
Taking a quick look at the age demographic differcnes between the Survation and YouGov poll. They really are quite stark.
16-24 years olds make up 10.2% of the YouGov survey, they make up 5.9% of the Survation poll. They are 60/40 to vote Yes in the YouGov poll (they are up weighted by 50%) in Survation they are 39/61 to vote Yes (and they are up weighted 2.25 times).
Haven't had time to look at the Panelbase poll yet to see what demo differences there are in the sample.
People should listen to this man ^
LOOK AT THE DATA TABLE.
It's a survation poll FFS. The hype was ridiculous, as is the market overreaction. I'm not saying disregard it, but it sure aint no ICM.
I get the impression he has really taken to being able to have fun with powerful people and groups with a few words on Twitter, not just in closed meetings of business and politics.
Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?
Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors
Because I know you love this shit - and malcolmg hates it - I have partied with Alan on Hawaii. He's good value!
Just what I would expect from an arse licking loser
I thought only NO were rude, even in the face of provocation. For the record, I've always said I thought Yes would win, in case I should ever do something else that deserves rebuke.
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
How many times has Krugman predicted the collapse of the Eurozone?
Still, in the last two days you've got the head of BP, the head of Standard Chartered, Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman, the analysts at Credit Suisse, the analysts at Deutsche Bank, the leader writers of the FT, the Australian National Bank, the head of the Bank of England, the advisors to HSBC, the advisors to Nomura, and now George Soros the famous international US financier. all saying that Salmond's idea for currency is insane, that an independent Scotland would face severe economic crisis from the off, and that independence is therefore an absurd risk.
I know, I know, they're all "scaremongering", right? All of them. Perhaps they all got together to hatch the plot last week in a pub in Cricklewood.
The SNP can hardly claim Credit Suisse and Nomura are all part of the London elite.
They could do, but since iScot would be reliant on borrowing money from them and others, it doesn't seem like such a good idea.
Salmond had worked as an economist in the early 70s, yet his touching belief that he can renegade on Scotland's share of UK debt is disingenuous. Who would lend to an Independent Scotland if he tried that cunning stunt? Add on his flaky approach to a currency union, I can only conclude that he has either burnt his economics texts or wasn't serious about Independence in the first place.
To be fair, I'd be more likely to be killed for being British in the Middle East. I should have been clearer: the complacent bit was the no one lives in fear bit.
I was generalising for brevity. I could have said "No one lives in fear except for Mrs J Smith of 32 The Meadows, Brockley, Mr Malcolm Turnip of 93 Dewar St, Edinburgh, Mr ...... (insert long list here ) .... and finally Mr I.P. Nightly of Little Piddlington"
It would be interesting to analyse the split between Yes and No support in England. I suspect those who don't like Scotland and the Scots incline to Yes, whereas those (like me) who do like Scotland and the Scots incline to No.
Taking a quick look at the age demographic differcnes between the Survation and YouGov poll. They really are quite stark.
16-24 years olds make up 10.2% of the YouGov survey, they make up 5.9% of the Survation poll. They are 60/40 to vote Yes in the YouGov poll (they are up weighted by 50%) in Survation they are 39/61 to vote Yes (and they are up weighted 2.25 times).
Haven't had time to look at the Panelbase poll yet to see what demo differences there are in the sample.
People should listen to this man ^
LOOK AT THE DATA TABLE.
It's a survation poll FFS. The hype was ridiculous, as is the market overreaction. I'm not saying disregard it, but it sure aint no ICM.
Betfair 3.85 is prob a bet.. reckon it will shorten again
Salmond knows its crazy. He just doesn't care. He is a hardcore Nat. To him a poor and independent Scotland is better than a rich Scotland in the union.
Salmond is thick. He is just gambling the electorate is.
The self preserving voice of Labour. Been round 'rich' Shettleston or 'rich' Wishaw lately?
I mean, it has had fewer missteps than the No campaign, sure.
But still, the referendum is there for the winning. And if Yes don't win it, then it was not a good campaign.
Yes clearly should have had a much cleaner message on the currency, as that seems a drag on their vote.
I do think it is not so obvious whether Yes will get as good a chance again. Quebec hasn't since 1995, and the oil reserves are clearly declining from its peak.
(Of course, this presuppose that the Labour & Tory parties have learnt something form the experience).
To be fair, I'd be more likely to be killed for being British in the Middle East. I should have been clearer: the complacent bit was the no one lives in fear bit.
I was generalising for brevity. I could have said "No one lives in fear except for Mrs J Smith of 32 The Meadows, Brockley, Mr Malcolm Turnip of 93 Dewar St, Edinburgh, Mr ...... (insert long list here ) .... and finally Mr I.P. Nightly of Little Piddlington"
I predict that if and when Scotland votes NO, or even YES, we will all turn our attention back to Rotherham. It is ready to boil over, quite dramatically.
It looks like the most ghastly cover up really did happen.
Yes, if you think Salmond is a brazen-faced liar, wait until you hear the head of Rotherham Council, Social Services etc.
ky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 7m Former Victims' Commissioner Louise Casey appointed to conduct an inspection into Rotherham Council's handling of the child abuse claims
Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?
Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors
Because I know you love this shit - and malcolmg hates it - I have partied with Alan on Hawaii. He's good value!
Back in the late 80s/early 90s, when he was pretending to be straight and was going out with Saffron Burrows, I DJed two of his birthday parties. In one at the Groucho Supergran and Victor Meldrew turned up.
I predict that if and when Scotland votes NO, or even YES, we will all turn our attention back to Rotherham. It is ready to boil over, quite dramatically.
It looks like the most ghastly cover up really did happen.
There is a by election next month in Manchester.... the Labour MP who died voted against Gay marriage, was anti abortion, and...
"Heywood and Middleton is seen as particularly volatile to issues around race and immigration. Nearby Rochdale became the centre of media attention in 2012 after a sex-trafficking gang of men of mainly Pakistani origin were found to have preyed on at least 47 girls, who were all white. Many of the victims and their families come from Heywood.
Lee Rigby, the fusilier murdered in May 2013 by two Muslim converts near Woolwich barracks in south-east London, came from Middleton, where members of his family still live.
Farage has already made clear that he is willing to campaign on the issues of child abuse and immigration.
On Sunday, he told activists in Somerset that the child sexual abuse scandal in Rotherham – where perpetrators of Pakistani origin or descent were allegedly not pursued because of fears that authorities would be perceived as racist or Islamophobic – was an example of multiculturalism leading to disaster"
ky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 7m Former Victims' Commissioner Louise Casey appointed to conduct an inspection into Rotherham Council's handling of the child abuse claims
Salmond had worked as an economist in the early 70s, yet his touching belief that he can renegade on Scotland's share of UK debt is disingenuous. Who would lend to an Independent Scotland if he tried that cunning stunt? Add on his flaky approach to a currency union, I can only conclude that he has either burnt his economics texts or wasn't serious about Independence in the first place.
Or he was never a very good economist.
I was a pizza chef when younger. Good or bad, it was some time ago. Salmond is no more an economist than I'm a mozzarella expert.
ky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 7m Former Victims' Commissioner Louise Casey appointed to conduct an inspection into Rotherham Council's handling of the child abuse claims
That's a hugely significant intervention and certainly scuppers the SNP line that all unionists are closet Tories. Soros practically owns the American Left.
The American left are sensible, unlike our own left.
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
How many times has Krugman predicted the collapse of the Eurozone?
Still, in the last two days you've got the head of BP, the head of Standard Chartered, Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman, the analysts at Credit Suisse, the analysts at Deutsche Bank, the leader writers of the FT, the Australian National Bank, the head of the Bank of England, the advisors to HSBC, the advisors to Nomura, and now George Soros the famous international US financier. all saying that Salmond's idea for currency is insane, that an independent Scotland would face severe economic crisis from the off, and that independence is therefore an absurd risk.
I know, I know, they're all "scaremongering", right? All of them. Perhaps they all got together to hatch the plot last week in a pub in Cricklewood.
Surely Better Together can put all the quotes together on a leaflet and have it delivered on mass? The SNP can hardly claim Credit Suisse and Nomura are all part of the London elite.
That would require competency and organisation. Where are BT going to get any of that?
I predict that if and when Scotland votes NO, or even YES, we will all turn our attention back to Rotherham. It is ready to boil over, quite dramatically.
It looks like the most ghastly cover up really did happen.
Do you think UKIP can win the Heywood&Middleton by-election? Next door to Rochdale, 35 miles from Rotherham.
Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?
Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors
Because I know you love this shit - and malcolmg hates it - I have partied with Alan on Hawaii. He's good value!
Back in the late 80s/early 90s, when he was pretending to be straight and was going out with Saffron Burrows, I DJed two of his birthday parties. In one at the Groucho Supergran and Victor Meldrew turned up.
Does this "dramatic" reversal in polling fortunes for the separatists coincide with Alan Cummings making an appearance on the campaign trail?
Behave, Alan Cumming is one of my favourite actors
Because I know you love this shit - and malcolmg hates it - I have partied with Alan on Hawaii. He's good value!
Back in the late 80s/early 90s, when he was pretending to be straight and was going out with Saffron Burrows, I DJed two of his birthday parties. In one at the Groucho Supergran and Victor Meldrew turned up.
Salmond knows its crazy. He just doesn't care. He is a hardcore Nat. To him a poor and independent Scotland is better than a rich Scotland in the union.
Salmond is thick. He is just gambling the electorate is.
He's not thick. He's one track. He knows that a focussed (and obsessed) minority can make the weather against the indifference of the majority. See the rise of the CP in 1917 Russia, the NDSAP in Germany. Feel free to add recent UK precedents.
I predict that if and when Scotland votes NO, or even YES, we will all turn our attention back to Rotherham. It is ready to boil over, quite dramatically.
It looks like the most ghastly cover up really did happen.
Do you think UKIP can win the Heywood&Middleton by-election? Next door to Rochdale, 35 miles from Rotherham.
The town where Lee Rigby was from and where his family still live? Where Pakistani men were found guilty of trafficking white girls in 2012? Where BNP got 7% in 2010?
This poll comes as some relief and I am glad the pound has firmed up to £1=$1.61 USD. I thought the fall would continue today but this firming in the pound occured before 1pm, so I assume somebody leaked the numbers.
However, we still have the ICM poll on the weekend and, of course, the vote itself next week.
My finances become difficult at £1= $1.55, and too difficult at £1=$1.50. So I am keen to insulate myself against a bad fall. I thought of placing some money with IGIndex in one of their newfangled online dealing thingies (I have an account but I'm too afraid to touch it - FLASHING LIGHTS! TECHNOLOGY! BAD!) and may still do so, but I thought I'd see if there were alternatives first.
So. I need to insure myself against a GBP fall to $1.50USD, and ideally to $1.55USD. Other than IGIndex and other online spread betting forums, can anybody suggest a method?
Don't even THINK about forex spreadbetting on IGIndex, they impose compulsory stop losses and everyone gets stopped out.
There was an account of a lunch they had with ? an FT blogger.
IG: 100% of our forex punters lose their money.
blogger: Ho, ho. But I expect the real figure is quite high, 80-90% is it?
IG 100%.
Thank you for that, and I share your disquiet concerning IGIndex and other online spread betting forums, . But it is currently the only means I have to insulate myself against currency movements. Are there others one can use?
Taking a quick look at the age demographic differcnes between the Survation and YouGov poll. They really are quite stark.
16-24 years olds make up 10.2% of the YouGov survey, they make up 5.9% of the Survation poll. They are 60/40 to vote Yes in the YouGov poll (they are up weighted by 50%) in Survation they are 39/61 to vote Yes (and they are up weighted 2.25 times).
Haven't had time to look at the Panelbase poll yet to see what demo differences there are in the sample.
People should listen to this man ^
LOOK AT THE DATA TABLE.
It's a survation poll FFS. The hype was ridiculous, as is the market overreaction. I'm not saying disregard it, but it sure aint no ICM.
Still, it's allowed the PB hysterics to sponge themselves clean & change their underwear; they may be able to grab a few restless hours of sleep tonight. The next week's gonna be bumpy.
O/T, though with a Scottish flavour: a friend with an RBS business account tells me he rang them to ask about the 12-month deposit rate for £13000 that he wants to keep reasonably safe and accessible next year. He was told that RBS no longer offers any kind of business deposit account and hasn't since 2012, since they have so much money already deposited that they don't need any more, and are now merely in the lending business, trying to lend out what they've already got.
Is that a common thing in banking at the moment? "Urgh! Money! Take it away!"
He's slightly bemused. Where ought he to be looking? Treasury Reserve?
Have I crossed the Rubicon? I find myself agreeing with IOS and Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy! I am a rare breed, a Scottish Tory, and I am so upset at the thought of a Yes vote. Also a lurker since around 2004.
Damn I wanted to go against the grain earlier and say I thought Survaton might go against the grain and THAT was what was 'quite something' about it.
I was at wedding in Scotland in 2011 and the independence issue came up. A young Scottish gentleman took the view that it was really interesting now because having a referendum would force Westminster to see what they would offer Scotland to say no. In other words the referendum was a bargaining chip. So after all the constitutional wrangling of the last few days I suspect we'll get a no vote. Perhaps in a few years the Scots will have to be offered something else. If we seem desperate to keep them they can keep demanding whatever union they want.
Comments
ps. Assuming you are still using £
pps. And that there are no more Scottish pounds as I'm sure you understand will be the case.
Yes 1/2
No 6/4
AAA 5/1
AA+, AA or AA- 11/4
A+, A or A- 2/1
BBB+, BBB or BBB- 4/1
BB+, BB or BB- 8/1
B+ or worse 6/1
The political will of rUK will decide if there is one and there is no way rUK will be underwriting Scottish banks. And if Salmond wants to walk away without taking debt, good luck on getting loaned any money.
http://www.mumsnet.com/politics/scottish-referendum-survey-results
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b5c48254-376e-11e4-bd0a-00144feabdc0.html?segid=0100320#axzz3CwE9K7vy
Krugman has said similar things:
Declaring Scotland independent would mean a big disruption of existing economic and financial arrangements. As Simon Wren-Lewis says, the preponderance of professional economic opinion is that this disruption would leave Scotland worse off, but that is a point we can argue. However, that is not the argument the independence movement is making; what they have been telling voters is that there would be no disruption — in particular, that Scots could continue using the pound, and that this would pose no problem.
This is an astonishing claim to make at this point in history.
Do you accept English notes?
"Mr. Eagles, when Rome fell almost all Europe fell into centuries of Dark Ages."
That is surely a terribly old fashioned and inaccurate view of history. After the fall of the Roman Empire there arose some very interesting and cultured civilisations in its wake. The idea that we were grubbing around in the dark leading nasty brutish and short lives because the Romans had gone home is not borne out by archaeology or written records.
What is so admirable about taking unnecessary risks?
This whole independence thing is stupid, based on misrepresentation, manipulation and twisting of the truth. It is not like England is an evil dictatorship. It is not Franco's Spain, Pohl Pot's Cambodia or Galtieri's Argentina. You will not get "disappeared" here and when something does go wrong efforts are made to fix it.
The UK is a good place to live. It is stable, tolerant, wealthy and no one here lives in fear. It has its faults because nowhere is perfect but about half the world (or maybe 3/4) would gladly swap places with anyone here.
Where is the upside on running away from that?
The only way Scotland stands a chance of being successful as an independent nation is if they have their own currency. Even then they will need to put up taxes and cut services but you know - at least it will work.
There was an account of a lunch they had with ? an FT blogger.
IG: 100% of our forex punters lose their money.
blogger: Ho, ho. But I expect the real figure is quite high, 80-90% is it?
IG 100%.
Shadsy is going 3/1. Not good odds, imo.
His 4/1 against >85% turnout does however look like value. I think just about every sentient Scotsman is going to vote, some of them twice.
I want to see him nearly cry!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/oct/23/alex-salmond-eu-legal-advice-scotland
Let's face it, he owes the UK something in return.....
16-24 years olds make up 10.2% of the YouGov survey, they make up 5.9% of the Survation poll. They are 60/40 to vote Yes in the YouGov poll (they are up weighted by 50%) in Survation they are 39/61 to vote Yes (and they are up weighted 2.25 times).
Haven't had time to look at the Panelbase poll yet to see what demo differences there are in the sample.
Also, this: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/09/09/opinion/090914krugman2/090914krugman2-tmagArticle.png
Go live in a Latin American dictatorship and see how you fare, or the middle East where they will kill you just for being gay.
Shall we have a whip round?
Perhaps they cooked it up at Davos, or a Skulls and Bones poker and beer shindig at Tony Blairs one evening?
malcolm, would you like to buy some tartan tinfoil to make a protective bonnet?
Priceless name dropping that beats my meagre lush-fest with the Bahamian PM!
Salmond knows its crazy. He just doesn't care. He is a hardcore Nat. To him a poor and independent Scotland is better than a rich Scotland in the union.
Salmond is thick. He is just gambling the electorate is.
LOOK AT THE DATA TABLE.
It's a survation poll FFS. The hype was ridiculous, as is the market overreaction. I'm not saying disregard it, but it sure aint no ICM.
I loved the recent silliness over NATO reps in Canada and Russia re Ukraine.
And of course there are the showbiz celebs who can be epically funny/don't take themselves seriously at all.
Go YES!!!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29144266
The files have been 'lost'.
You mean like the ones in parliament? Seems there could be a pattern?
I mean, it has had fewer missteps than the No campaign, sure.
But still, the referendum is there for the winning. And if Yes don't win it, then it was not a good campaign.
Yes clearly should have had a much cleaner message on the currency, as that seems a drag on their vote.
I do think it is not so obvious whether Yes will get as good a chance again. Quebec hasn't since 1995, and the oil reserves are clearly declining from its peak.
(Of course, this presuppose that the Labour & Tory parties have learnt something form the experience).
Former Victims' Commissioner Louise Casey appointed to conduct an inspection into Rotherham Council's handling of the child abuse claims
"Heywood and Middleton is seen as particularly volatile to issues around race and immigration. Nearby Rochdale became the centre of media attention in 2012 after a sex-trafficking gang of men of mainly Pakistani origin were found to have preyed on at least 47 girls, who were all white. Many of the victims and their families come from Heywood.
Lee Rigby, the fusilier murdered in May 2013 by two Muslim converts near Woolwich barracks in south-east London, came from Middleton, where members of his family still live.
Farage has already made clear that he is willing to campaign on the issues of child abuse and immigration.
On Sunday, he told activists in Somerset that the child sexual abuse scandal in Rotherham – where perpetrators of Pakistani origin or descent were allegedly not pursued because of fears that authorities would be perceived as racist or Islamophobic – was an example of multiculturalism leading to disaster"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/labour-early-byelection-plan-jim-dobbin-death-foil-ukip
You're saying Victor Meldrew turned up?
I don't believe it.
I reckon Labour could be in trouble
Well, it was 93% in Quebec. I'll be surprised if Scotland falls far short of that.
Is Prescott mentally unstable?
Great poll tho'
Rule Britannia.
Is that a common thing in banking at the moment? "Urgh! Money! Take it away!"
He's slightly bemused. Where ought he to be looking? Treasury Reserve?
I was at wedding in Scotland in 2011 and the independence issue came up. A young Scottish gentleman took the view that it was really interesting now because having a referendum would force Westminster to see what they would offer Scotland to say no. In other words the referendum was a bargaining chip. So after all the constitutional wrangling of the last few days I suspect we'll get a no vote. Perhaps in a few years the Scots will have to be offered something else. If we seem desperate to keep them they can keep demanding whatever union they want.