politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Shadsy's blog:

Indyref photo finish now just an 8/1 chance

The odds of a “photo finish” with the margin of victory being less than 1% have now hit 8/1 – you could have got 33/1 when we first quoted that possibility last month.

The YES vote percentage line has moved up from 43.5% to 47.5% in less than a week...

... We’ve also started to see some shrewd money on the SNP picking up some unlikely gains from Labour in next year’s Westminster general election. We’ve shortened their odds in a number of seats including Glasgow East, Glenrothes and Airdrie & Shotts.

http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/08/indyref-photo-finish-now-just-an-81-chance/

That was after antifrank tipped that strategy, myself and Richard Nabavi followed antifrank in those SNP long shots.

Are we getting a thread on TNS, or is it still technically under embargo until midnight?

We are getting a thread, it is very awkward for Mike.

Some pollsters are very strict on observing their embargo, just because others have violated it, then you shouldn't because others are.

Violate their embargo, and well they'll never send you another poll again.

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We are getting a thread, it is very awkward for Mike.

Some pollsters are very strict on observing their embargo, just because others have violated it, then you shouldn't because others are.

Violate their embargo, and well they'll never send you another poll again.

if the data tables are on their website, have they not broken their own embargo?

HurstLlama said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_P said:

Carnyx said:

So Mr Cameron just took that lying down?

You mean 'respected the sovereign will of the Scottish people' you Natters keep wittering on about?

That was to do with having the referendum, not with his actions during the campaign. He didn't need a passport, for heaven's sake.

The only role any Englishman, politician or otherwise, should have had in the Referendum campaign is to point out any factual mistakes made by participants relating to rUKs attitudes and policies. For the rest we, the English should have kept out. It is nothing to do with us.

Stuart_Dickson said:

Brown takes charge as Cameron backs his plan for "Scottish Home Rule"
- The former PM seizes the initiative with a timetable for further devolution to Scotland.

Gordon Brown may not be in office, but he is in power. After the former prime minister, in his own words, seized "the initiative" by announcing a timetable for further devolution to the Scottish parliament in the event of a No vote, Westminster was bemused.

... After tonight, it no longer feels an exaggeration to say that if the Union survives, Brown will be recorded by history as the man who saved it. But that his intervention comes so late, after thousands have already voted by post, and seems so desperate, means it may have little positive effect - and could even harm the Unionist cause.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/brown-takes-charge-cameron-backs-his-plan-scottish-home-rule

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We are getting a thread, it is very awkward for Mike.

Some pollsters are very strict on observing their embargo, just because others have violated it, then you shouldn't because others are.

Violate their embargo, and well they'll never send you another poll again.

if the data tables are on their website, have they not broken their own embargo?

My guess is that Mike's picked up on the same points that people here have. Frankly, i'd be a little bit annoyed if I was OGH, Spending a while drafting and editing a post and not being able to publish it until after everyone else has already had their say. Still, an embargo is an embargo. It's out of Mike's hands,

isam said:

Trying to think of the last Northerner to play for Arsenal...

SeanT said:

It's just occurred to me that two so-called professional politicians, Dave Cameron and Ed Miliband, are being completely out-classes by two amateurs, the economist Alex Salmond and the stockbroker Nigel Farage.

So what is the point in being a "professional" politician if it means you end up being really quite crap at politics?

In the new FUK we should have a law that SPADS, et al, are specifically EXCLUDED from becoming MPs.

hunchman said:

Omnium said:

I wonder if Scottish independence may become the benchmark for 'democracy doesn't work'?

Now it may be that they vote for independence, and it all works out. Perfect, and great. If not though its a pretty clear example of a democracy making the wrong call.

The truth is out there, but it isn't being encompassed in the debate.

I've been there in 1997 when campaigning for the Tories in Eltham (how long does that seem ago now!), and vividly remember thinking how can the electorate be so daft not to see through Blair. But that line of thinking does no good what so ever. You may intensely dislike what the electorate is telling you, but you have to try and empathise with them and their feelings always, as hard as that seems at times. 'Democracy is the least worst system that we know' - how apt.

hunchman said:

Neil said:

hunchman said:

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

uproar in the Edinburgh finance sector

The prospect is bound to unnerve some wobblier YES voters - what will it be like AFTER they vote YES, if it's this bad after a few polls?

Not since the rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland have investors moved so fast to protect themselves against short-term ructions in the pound. Rising fear that Scots might vote next week to leave the UK has seen demand for two-week options on a fall in sterling jump by the most since October 2008.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b59947b2-3771-11e4-971c-00144feabdc0.html

Still working on it, but that open gap that we had between Friday night close, and last night open, up to around GBPUSD 1.6320 looks as though it needs filling, before more weakness. Danger of getting too greedy though on that trade but looks tempting to me with tight stops right now.

I'm not entirely sure what that means. Can you repost it in English so some of us can get on the opposite side to whatever you're thinking of?

(I'm sure you know I'm kidding if that sounds very harsh!)

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We are getting a thread, it is very awkward for Mike.

Some pollsters are very strict on observing their embargo, just because others have violated it, then you shouldn't because others are.

Violate their embargo, and well they'll never send you another poll again.

if the data tables are on their website, have they not broken their own embargo?

No, that link was only available for those who were sent the embargoed poll details.

Look on their homepage, it isn't viewable on their news or polls section

http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news

I see, yes that is awkward and would take some very heavy moderating to prevent.

Sorry Mike/TSE

The frustrating thing is, Mike and I don't bet on embargoed polls, until the embargo is lifted, so tonight has been very frustrating watching other people bet and make profits.

What time is embargo over?

peter_from_putney said:

2:05PM
O/T
"I'm going for England to defeat Switzerland this evening by a two goal margin.
Unlikely I know, but decent odds of 9/1 from SkyBet."

Bow before me, I say bow before me.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We are getting a thread, it is very awkward for Mike.

Some pollsters are very strict on observing their embargo, just because others have violated it, then you shouldn't because others are.

Violate their embargo, and well they'll never send you another poll again.

if the data tables are on their website, have they not broken their own embargo?

No, that link was only available for those who were sent the embargoed poll details.

Look on their homepage, it isn't viewable on their news or polls section

http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news

I see, yes that is awkward and would take some very heavy moderating to prevent.

Sorry Mike/TSE

The frustrating thing is, Mike and I don't bet on embargoed polls, until the embargo is lifted, so tonight has been very frustrating watching other people bet and make profits.

alex said:

In some ways it's not surprising that Labour are very lukewarm towards putting detail on Devomax proposals. Really I would think Labour in their hearts are fundamentally against devolution as it is at present, let alone a more extreme version. And probably the most anti are Scottish Labour politicians.

Labour politicians genuinely care about many of the things which are devolved to Scotland. But they also are ambitious and think there's more to politics than health and education. They want to be players on the world stage.

But devolution forces them to choose. They can either have a say over things which matter to their constituents. Or they can have a say over things which really matter to them as ambitious politicians (unless they can find a seat in England). The more major issues are devolved the more the opportunities for them at Westminster narrow. At best Holyrood is seen as a feeder parliament to Westminster. (the Tories of course don't have the same problem - not a) having any hope of power in Scotland and b) not being as bothered about 'grassroots' issues).

It's no wonder the SNP do so well in Scotland - their A team are based there.

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

It's just occurred to me that two so-called professional politicians, Dave Cameron and Ed Miliband, are being completely out-classes by two amateurs, the economist Alex Salmond and the stockbroker Nigel Farage.

So what is the point in being a "professional" politician if it means you end up being really quite crap at politics?

In the new FUK we should have a law that SPADS, et al, are specifically EXCLUDED from becoming MPs.

Its up to local parties to stop selecting these people, although a minimum age of 30 to be an MP might help.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 13s

Tuesday's Telegraph front page - "The Queen is urged to intervene"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxCfR38IgAAUNAX.jpg

Socrates said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

HanDodges said:

Pulpstar said:

Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...

No positive case whatsoever.

A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!

Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.

There's also been plenty of pro-Scottish sentiment. It's just that nationalists can't take the banter due to the chip on their shoulder.

HanDodges said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

HanDodges said:

Pulpstar said:

Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...

No positive case whatsoever.

A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!

Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.

If it was anything like today it would have been individuals posting a paradoxical combo of suggested cruel and unusual punishments for ungrateful Scotland leaving whilst ostensibly wanting a No vote. It's rather like telling your wife you'll make sure she is ruined if she ever tries to divorce you.

NorthBriton said:

Evening all. Just back from canvassing in my lovely SNP-held constituency on behalf of BT. We did a section of council housing. Quite a few Yes window bills. And yet it proved 50/50. Others did a new private housing development - smallish starter homes. Strongly no.

Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.

Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

It's just occurred to me that two so-called professional politicians, Dave Cameron and Ed Miliband, are being completely out-classes by two amateurs, the economist Alex Salmond and the stockbroker Nigel Farage.

So what is the point in being a "professional" politician if it means you end up being really quite crap at politics?

In the new FUK we should have a law that SPADS, et al, are specifically EXCLUDED from becoming MPs.

Its up to local parties to stop selecting these people, although a minimum age of 30 to be an MP might help.

I'm not so sure of that. The really dangerous ones are surely those who have spent years in the heart of a party as a functionary, rising to positions of great advisory power, who can then not only be handed a safe seat but already have networks of power and contacts among the leadership as soon as they are elected in their 30s. I am just speculating, but someone elected in their 20s, while having contacts I have no doubt, seem like they would have had less time to make connections with the powerbrokers in London and are more adept at winning over their local party than the policy makers. Being even younger than usual also might make them more suspicious enemies earlier one maybe?

DavidL said:

NorthBriton said:

Evening all. Just back from canvassing in my lovely SNP-held constituency on behalf of BT. We did a section of council housing. Quite a few Yes window bills. And yet it proved 50/50. Others did a new private housing development - smallish starter homes. Strongly no.

Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.

Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!

Well done you. I thought I was the only one on here canvassing for BT.

I would certainly agree that window posters is a poor way of measuring support. I have found some very Yes areas in Dundee but most have been pretty close, some surprisingly so.

What I have noticed is that I have found far more who have already voted for No than yes. A lot of this is age of course but a significant part of BT's vote will be in the bag by polling day.