Anyone have any clue (or "feel") as to what % of votes of the overall total in this referendum will be cast as postal votes, as opposed to on the day?
Think postal was 600-700K from what I have seen. They are expecting 4 million voting so roughly 15%
Thanks Malcolm. What I'm trying to get to is how far ahead YES need to be on the day.
I know you won't agree with these numbers but, let's say, we're conservative and take 600k postals. 50% of the postals have been cast already at 60-40 NO and the balance are currently being cast at 53-47 NO.
I think (on those figures and a 4 million turnout) YES need to get 51.3% on the day.
if we assume the TNS figures everywhere are accurate, this is clearly a live contest, no yougov outlier, we can all now go back to sleep...so what % prob would boys and girls put on each outcome now? if you were put against a wall with a gun to you head? 60% chance of a NO voite, 40% chance of a yes vote, taking all factors into account?
I think one thing we have to think about to help No's last minute fear factor, is huge market gyrations in the 48 hours before polling if yes are in front..their best move might have been to come from behind on the day...
Indeed - it's definitely better for No that Yes takes the lead now (or it's 50/50) rather than at the very last minute.
It's probably also better for Cameron (and everyone else) as well - if people get used to the idea that Yes may win then it will be less of a shock if it actually happens - in which case there will be less hysteria.
If there is a yes, after the 19th the Tories would have a majority in the rest of the UK. They could pass any legislation they like if it does not directly effect Scotland. For example if the Tories wanted to pass the EU referendum Bill there would not be the votes to defeat it. Would Labour really use Scottish MPs to stop it, not if they have any sense.
So even if strictly speaking Scots still have representation in Parliament after the 19th and even after next may, I can not see them being allowed any say on future course of the UK.
If there is a Yes, when Dave resigns the new PM would lead a majority Tory government with no need for the Lib Dems. I'm sure this is what Tory back bencher will have in mind.
That's fascinatingly true. Would Miliband really marshall his Scottish Labour MPs to obstruct legislation that England clearly wants? When those MPs are in effect foreigners, or foreigners-to-be?
It would be political suicide for him.
There are huge opportunities here for the Tories. It will be chaos. And chaos can be constructive as well as destructive.
On that note, definitely time for a stroll up Primrose H.
Let's hope the Tories don't throw it away by refusing to work with UKIP.
God I get so frustrated at the quality of polling in Scotland. When you consider the number of pointless and irrelevant UK polls whose main purpose is presumably to give us something to talk about on this site when nothing more interesting is going on, sometimes 3 or 4 in a single day, with the rubbish we have to put up with for the most important decision in about 300 years it makes me want to scream. A poll this near to the decision collected over a week? Are they having a laugh ?
If yes, more money for the English, no 41 labour mp's to vote on English matters, no labour govt.
If no, & Devo Max, no Scottish MP's should be allowed to vote on English matters, government only based upon rUK seats, end to any Barnett formula & Scottish subsidy, no labour govt in power. Tories vs. rUKIP main political game in town as England becomes nationalistic.
Labour screwed either way.
Is Cameron stupid after all?
All sounds pretty good to me.
DevoMax not on the table. Scottish Labour will still vote on English matters.
The point I'm making is in any post vote arrangement, whatever its called, there is no way Scottish MP's can vote on English matters. They shouldn't be doing it today. English voters will be incensed when they understand what the Barnett formula means. Any party going into the election in England not focused on the English will be decimated in the polls.
Scottish Labour MP'S will vote on English matters. That's life.
Hearing him prattle on about Devo Super Max. It did make me wonder about two things.
1) If Devo Super Max is now on the table, it seems to me like it could easily be spun of less of a big step to vote Yes.
2) Lets presume that it is a close win for NO. That could be the worst of all worlds. A vast percentage of Scots will be pissed at not getting independence, and I can imagine when the England voters start to realise that basically the Scots will be able to take a load of new powers to make the nice decisions, while continuing to blame the English for the bad stuff, they wont be best pleased either.
If yes, more money for the English, no 41 labour mp's to vote on English matters, no labour govt.
If no, & Devo Max, no Scottish MP's should be allowed to vote on English matters, government only based upon rUK seats, end to any Barnett formula & Scottish subsidy, no labour govt in power. Tories vs. rUKIP main political game in town as England becomes nationalistic.
Labour screwed either way.
Is Cameron stupid after all?
All sounds pretty good to me.
DevoMax not on the table. Scottish Labour will still vote on English matters.
The point I'm making is in any post vote arrangement, whatever its called, there is no way Scottish MP's can vote on English matters. They shouldn't be doing it today. English voters will be incensed when they understand what the Barnett formula means. Any party going into the election in England not focused on the English will be decimated in the polls.
Scottish Labour MP'S will vote on English matters. That's life.
Dave. Ozzy. CCHQ. Lynton. You read this blog don't you?
Milibande and Gordon Brown (!!!) have today promised that Labour will move swiftly after a GE victory to deliver deep deep Devomax to Scotland. But - and here's the joke - not do anything whatever about Scottish MPs voting on English laws!
Please, please make a swift offer to all of the UK that after a NO you will put a Federal UK in your manifesto. You can see as plain as the nose in front of your face that England exists. And how much Labour hates it. And how much the English love and are rightly proud of being English. The Scots will want it after a NO. The English will demand it. Just do it. And win by a landslide.
You can hardly elect MPs from a soon-to-be-foreign country or allow a parliament elected under such an arrangement to stand.
It does seem preferable to abandoning democracy though.
So, your idea of democracy is to allow 10% of the MPs to stand in an election and then bail out partway through the subsequent parliament and expect the rest of us to be bound by the result of a deliberately flawed election?
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it. Asked the SNP as a Westminster parliamentary party to sign it too -a guarantee of further powers should 'Yes' lose. SNP would doubtless refuse to do it as it's a 'stunt' -thus allowing themselves to be painted as refusing to guarantee actual benefit for Scotland, tying in with their recent non-attendance at the bedroom tax vote, making them look cheap and mean-spirited. You could even leave an empty seat with an SNP name card on it. It would make all the papers. Or if they went ahead and signed it, it looks like it's all tied up and there's nothing to fight for. Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job?
Hearing him prattle on about Devo Super Max. It did make me wonder about two things.
1) If Devo Super Max is now on the table, it seems to me like it could easily be spun of less of a big step to vote Yes.
2) Lets presume that it is a close win for NO. That could be the worst of all worlds. A vast percentage of Scots will be pissed at not getting independence, and I can imagine when the England voters start to realise that basically the Scots will be able to take a load of new powers to make the nice decisions, while continuing to blame the English for the bad stuff, they wont be best pleased either.
Funny how Gordon Brown can unilaterally suddenly confer these powers on the lucky Scots. Is he still the prime minister?
If yes, more money for the English, no 41 labour mp's to vote on English matters, no labour govt.
If no, & Devo Max, no Scottish MP's should be allowed to vote on English matters, government only based upon rUK seats, end to any Barnett formula & Scottish subsidy, no labour govt in power. Tories vs. rUKIP main political game in town as England becomes nationalistic.
Labour screwed either way.
Is Cameron stupid after all?
All sounds pretty good to me.
DevoMax not on the table. Scottish Labour will still vote on English matters.
The point I'm making is in any post vote arrangement, whatever its called, there is no way Scottish MP's can vote on English matters. They shouldn't be doing it today. English voters will be incensed when they understand what the Barnett formula means. Any party going into the election in England not focused on the English will be decimated in the polls.
Scottish Labour MP'S will vote on English matters. That's life.
Why though? It's wrong. It's unjust. It's bonkers. So is the Welsh situation, if less so, but I still get to vote for an MP who can vote on hospital arrangements in Bristol when the reverse is not true. Something will eventually be done about .
If yes, more money for the English, no 41 labour mp's to vote on English matters, no labour govt.
If no, & Devo Max, no Scottish MP's should be allowed to vote on English matters, government only based upon rUK seats, end to any Barnett formula & Scottish subsidy, no labour govt in power. Tories vs. rUKIP main political game in town as England becomes nationalistic.
Labour screwed either way.
Is Cameron stupid after all?
All sounds pretty good to me.
DevoMax not on the table. Scottish Labour will still vote on English matters.
The point I'm making is in any post vote arrangement, whatever its called, there is no way Scottish MP's can vote on English matters. They shouldn't be doing it today. English voters will be incensed when they understand what the Barnett formula means. Any party going into the election in England not focused on the English will be decimated in the polls.
Scottish Labour MP'S will vote on English matters. That's life.
Why though? It's wrong. It's unjust. It's bonkers. So is the Welsh situation, if less so, but I still get to vote for an MP who can vote on hospital arrangements in Bristol when the reverse is not true. Something will eventually be done about .
Same reason they had devolution for everyone else last time. Same reason they inflicted mass immigration on the country. Because Labour has a deep distaste for English, and doesn't want them voting on their own matters.
Andrew Neil @afneil 8m Gordon Brown tells @c4news very few Scots vote Tory. In fact, 413,00 voted Tory 2010, only 80,000 fewer than voted SNP. Holyrood different
If yes, more money for the English, no 41 labour mp's to vote on English matters, no labour govt.
If no, & Devo Max, no Scottish MP's should be allowed to vote on English matters, government only based upon rUK seats, end to any Barnett formula & Scottish subsidy, no labour govt in power. Tories vs. rUKIP main political game in town as England becomes nationalistic.
Labour screwed either way.
Is Cameron stupid after all?
All sounds pretty good to me.
DevoMax not on the table. Scottish Labour will still vote on English matters.
The point I'm making is in any post vote arrangement, whatever its called, there is no way Scottish MP's can vote on English matters. They shouldn't be doing it today. English voters will be incensed when they understand what the Barnett formula means. Any party going into the election in England not focused on the English will be decimated in the polls.
Scottish Labour MP'S will vote on English matters. That's life.
Why though? It's wrong. It's unjust. It's bonkers. So is the Welsh situation, if less so, but I still get to vote for an MP who can vote on hospital arrangements in Bristol when the reverse is not true. Something will eventually be done about .
Same reason they had devolution for everyone else last time. Same reason they inflicted mass immigration on the country. Because Labour has a deep distaste for English, and doesn't want them voting on their own matters.
Presumably you could say the same of some London MPs, in certain areas of policy?
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it.
The real puzzle is why they did not flesh out Devomax before this year. As a non-voting YES supporter I am very happy with that mistake, although I fear our arch sage OGH maybe right on the final outcome, this latest poll gives me hope that YES will win.
Sorry but do we actually have the numbers from the TNS poll. No-one is mentioning Clegg here I notice. If we can agree Cameron would be toast, wouldn't it be a useful excuse for the Lib Dems to move against such an electoral liability? They've kept him because they didn't want to look amateurish. But if the country is in revolutionary mood?
And Miliband. I see no reason why he would be secure, given that all parties will be in revolutionary ferment, he is a proven liability, and he must carry some of the blame for losing Labour's heartland when he was Labour leader.
Odds on next Labour leader, or timing of Miliband's departure?
I'm a Unionist, but without wanting to sound callous, this could suit the Lib Dems quite well. Would give them the excuse to make sure they fight next year's election under a voter friendly leader.
I got a couple of quid on betfair at 100/1 for none of the 3 leaders to be in place next GE.
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it. Asked the SNP as a Westminster parliamentary party to sign it too -a guarantee of further powers should 'Yes' lose. SNP would doubtless refuse to do it as it's a 'stunt' -thus allowing themselves to be painted as refusing to guarantee actual benefit for Scotland, tying in with their recent non-attendance at the bedroom tax vote, making them look cheap and mean-spirited. You could even leave an empty seat with an SNP name card on it. It would make all the papers. Or if they went ahead and signed it, it looks like it's all tied up and there's nothing to fight for. Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job?
Nice word count Lucky. With the footie on in the background and my malt substitute fully flowing I feel it's my, as a PB Scot, duty to comment.
[Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job]
No. And I'm not just talking about #indyref. I must be old and cynical.
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it.
The real puzzle is why they did not flesh out Devomax before this year. As a non-voting YES supporter I am very happy with that mistake, although I fear our arch sage OGH maybe right on the final outcome, this latest poll gives me hope that YES will win.
Not a real puzzle whatsoever; they thought they were going to win, and wanted to keep options open. If they'd run a decent campaign, devomax wouldn't be necessary. The real puzzle is why the survival instinct still hasn't kicked in.
Charles Grant @CER_Grant 2h I hear 10-12 EU governments are blocking the implementation of the latest round of #Russia sanctions that were agreed last week @CER_London.
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it. Asked the SNP as a Westminster parliamentary party to sign it too -a guarantee of further powers should 'Yes' lose. SNP would doubtless refuse to do it as it's a 'stunt' -thus allowing themselves to be painted as refusing to guarantee actual benefit for Scotland, tying in with their recent non-attendance at the bedroom tax vote, making them look cheap and mean-spirited. You could even leave an empty seat with an SNP name card on it. It would make all the papers. Or if they went ahead and signed it, it looks like it's all tied up and there's nothing to fight for. Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job?
So-called "Unionists" have not been doing their bloody job for about 70 years now. Bit unfair to just blame the current crop of dafties when the real damage was done long ago.
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it. Asked the SNP as a Westminster parliamentary party to sign it too -a guarantee of further powers should 'Yes' lose. SNP would doubtless refuse to do it as it's a 'stunt' -thus allowing themselves to be painted as refusing to guarantee actual benefit for Scotland, tying in with their recent non-attendance at the bedroom tax vote, making them look cheap and mean-spirited. You could even leave an empty seat with an SNP name card on it. It would make all the papers. Or if they went ahead and signed it, it looks like it's all tied up and there's nothing to fight for. Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job?
Nice word count Lucky. With the footie on in the background and my malt substitute fully flowing I feel it's my, as a PB Scot, duty to comment.
[Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job]
No. And I'm not just talking about #indyref. I must be old and cynical.
It was a rhetorical question really, but I agree, the sentiment can be universally applied.
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it.
The real puzzle is why they did not flesh out Devomax before this year. As a non-voting YES supporter I am very happy with that mistake, although I fear our arch sage OGH maybe right on the final outcome, this latest poll gives me hope that YES will win.
Not a real puzzle whatsoever; they thought they were going to win, and wanted to keep options open. If they'd run a decent campaign, devomax wouldn't be necessary. The real puzzle is why the survival instinct still hasn't kicked in.
All tactics and no long term strategic plan. Like a chess player thinking only two moves ahead and not able to work out the rest. True of Osborne, wee Dougie, Carmichael etc.
God I get so frustrated at the quality of polling in Scotland. When you consider the number of pointless and irrelevant UK polls whose main purpose is presumably to give us something to talk about on this site when nothing more interesting is going on, sometimes 3 or 4 in a single day, with the rubbish we have to put up with for the most important decision in about 300 years it makes me want to scream. A poll this near to the decision collected over a week? Are they having a laugh ?
A tad tetchy this evening David. Tough day in Dundee's schemes huh?
I am in Peebles for the week so no canvassing for me until the weekend. If we are to flee the country we need some loot to take with us. Got my kids out doing the good work though.
One of the multi flats we visited at the weekend didn't answer the door but clearly had a police radio on inside. What do you think , is the drug dealer demographic for or against? On the one hand self employed business types , very go ahead, on the other surely tempted by another border and the opportunities that might give.
Charles Grant @CER_Grant 2h I hear 10-12 EU governments are blocking the implementation of the latest round of #Russia sanctions that were agreed last week @CER_London.
A split or a splat?
Vlad fires up the tanks and heads West. Who's going to stop him?
If there is a yes, after the 19th the Tories would have a majority in the rest of the UK. They could pass any legislation they like if it does not directly effect Scotland. For example if the Tories wanted to pass the EU referendum Bill there would not be the votes to defeat it. Would Labour really use Scottish MPs to stop it, not if they have any sense.
So even if strictly speaking Scots still have representation in Parliament after the 19th and even after next may, I can not see them being allowed any say on future course of the UK.
If there is a Yes, when Dave resigns the new PM would lead a majority Tory government with no need for the Lib Dems. I'm sure this is what Tory back bencher will have in mind.
You over-rate Labour. They are venal and partisan. So yes they would block.
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it. Asked the SNP as a Westminster parliamentary party to sign it too -a guarantee of further powers should 'Yes' lose. SNP would doubtless refuse to do it as it's a 'stunt' -thus allowing themselves to be painted as refusing to guarantee actual benefit for Scotland, tying in with their recent non-attendance at the bedroom tax vote, making them look cheap and mean-spirited. You could even leave an empty seat with an SNP name card on it. It would make all the papers. Or if they went ahead and signed it, it looks like it's all tied up and there's nothing to fight for. Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job?
So-called "Unionists" have not been doing their bloody job for about 70 years now. Bit unfair to just blame the current crop of dafties when the real damage was done long ago.
England are on STV - I'm allowing myself some leeway-
Scots are too stupid to dimiss nationalism. That's what's happened. We could have aimed to be Japan-esque with panties in vending machines. (Island nation - geddit? Same Demos!!!)
Hearing him prattle on about Devo Super Max. It did make me wonder about two things.
1) If Devo Super Max is now on the table, it seems to me like it could easily be spun of less of a big step to vote Yes.
2) Lets presume that it is a close win for NO. That could be the worst of all worlds. A vast percentage of Scots will be pissed at not getting independence, and I can imagine when the England voters start to realise that basically the Scots will be able to take a load of new powers to make the nice decisions, while continuing to blame the English for the bad stuff, they wont be best pleased either.
(Disclosure: I've backed Yes from a betting point of view. Just 'cos I think that's the trend)
I wonder if the dislocation from Westminster that the Scots feel is precisely due to people like Brown. Let's have a quick canvass - Brown (awful beyond belief), Darling (not mine), Doogie (Where's he?), Ming (lord knows), Kennedy (hic!) and we can carry on.
It seems perhaps that Jim Murphy might have some credibility in all this, very few Scottish politicans do otherwise.
"Devo Super Max" - read a comic!
Even if they vote no then I think there will be enormous questions about children being allowed to play adult games.
I just can't fathom how stupid the BT campaign are -if I wasn't so concerned at the break up of the country I'd be cheering for Yes. They could have had a huge re-boot with the devomax announcement -get all the party leaders, Ian Paisley, Plaid Cymru -even Nige and whoever's leading the greens these days to attend the press conference and publicly sign it. Asked the SNP as a Westminster parliamentary party to sign it too -a guarantee of further powers should 'Yes' lose. SNP would doubtless refuse to do it as it's a 'stunt' -thus allowing themselves to be painted as refusing to guarantee actual benefit for Scotland, tying in with their recent non-attendance at the bedroom tax vote, making them look cheap and mean-spirited. You could even leave an empty seat with an SNP name card on it. It would make all the papers. Or if they went ahead and signed it, it looks like it's all tied up and there's nothing to fight for. Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job?
So-called "Unionists" have not been doing their bloody job for about 70 years now. Bit unfair to just blame the current crop of dafties when the real damage was done long ago.
Unionists like the country-wrecking Labour party that Scotland has dutifully bolstered whenever given the opportunity?
Charles Grant @CER_Grant 2h I hear 10-12 EU governments are blocking the implementation of the latest round of #Russia sanctions that were agreed last week @CER_London.
A split or a splat?
Vlad fires up the tanks and heads West. Who's going to stop him?
Yes, that's exactly what he is intending, it's always Munich 1938 again.
So basically it's the Baltics, Poland and America's poodle. Nice to see some are taking the opportunity to de-escalate.
I remember reading Atherton's book during a hiatus in India. I spent a weekend alone in Ooty, engrossed in that book - Ray's story really stuck in my mind. I couldn't help but feel rather sad for him at the time. Maybe it was the way the book was written, with Atherton projecting his pity onto Ray, or perhaps it was the reflection on myself and the times I've slipped into isolation, but his story very much stuck in my mind. In a weird way, it helped me reassess my own priorities as a young 20-something. Sure, I can profit from punting, but isn't there more to life than chasing the next win and F5'ing an internet forum?
Hearing him prattle on about Devo Super Max. It did make me wonder about two things.
1) If Devo Super Max is now on the table, it seems to me like it could easily be spun of less of a big step to vote Yes.
2) Lets presume that it is a close win for NO. That could be the worst of all worlds. A vast percentage of Scots will be pissed at not getting independence, and I can imagine when the England voters start to realise that basically the Scots will be able to take a load of new powers to make the nice decisions, while continuing to blame the English for the bad stuff, they wont be best pleased either.
Funny how Gordon Brown can unilaterally suddenly confer these powers on the lucky Scots. Is he still the prime minister?
I remember reading Atherton's book during a hiatus in India. I spent a weekend alone in Ooty, engrossed in that book - Ray's story really stuck in my mind. I couldn't help but feel rather sad for him at the time. Maybe it was the way the book was written, with Atherton projecting his pity onto Ray, or perhaps it was the reflection on myself and the times I've slipped into isolation, but his story very much stuck in my mind. In a weird way, it helped me reassess my own priorities as a young 20-something. Sure, I can profit from punting, but isn't there more to life than chasing the next win and F5'ing an internet forum?
I've got more to thank him for than I realised.
All things in moderation, eh?!
RIP Ray.
"Sure, I can profit from punting, but isn't there more to life than chasing the next win and F5'ing an internet forum?
Do you think anybody will bother to ask the English what they think about Scotland being given "devo-max" and also whether they might like some autonomy themselves?
Surely the time to have a serious, sensible discussion about devo-max and a new settlement for England was at the start of the referendum, not in a blind panic with a week to go?
Given the high proportion of postal voting and that postal votes mostly get completed the day they arive, parhaps 30% of referndum votes have already been cast.
So it's rather late for rUK to offer new bribes to Scotland in order to swing votes.
Charles Grant @CER_Grant 2h I hear 10-12 EU governments are blocking the implementation of the latest round of #Russia sanctions that were agreed last week @CER_London.
A split or a splat?
A spat, rather. Despite assurances, it was surely predictable that the most lukewarm (and they're all lukewarm to a degree) would seek to delay anything further given the truce.
Do you think anybody will bother to ask the English what they think about Scotland being given "devo-max" and also whether they might like some autonomy themselves?
Surely the time to have a serious, sensible discussion about devo-max and a new settlement for England was at the start of the referendum, not in a blind panic with a week to go?
Surely this makes it more likely that that gets on the agenda? Under the devolution status quo, the Westminster parties have been more than happy to sweep English votes for English laws under the carpet. Now they won't be able to.
Given the high proportion of postal voting and that postal votes mostly get completed the day they arive, parhaps 30% of referndum votes have already been cast.
So it's rather late for rUK to offer new bribes to Scotland in order to swing votes.
On the other hand, if you want to look on the bright side, that could make it less likely that there will be a sufficient late surge to take Yes to victory, because those who have already voted would likely to be mostly among the groups (especially the elderly) who are least well-disposed to independence.
I actually don't begrudge Gordon Brown finding a bit of salvation going around campaigning the the union. I'm not forgetting he nearly bankrupted it, but this is a good thing.
Have just realised that Scottish Independence would mean "complete separation" from Gordon Brown which must be worth having.
Strange how a man with no political authority seems to be selling England's birthright to keep the Scots in the Union at any price. Has anyone asked us? And how big will the bribe have got by this time next week?
Charles Grant @CER_Grant 2h I hear 10-12 EU governments are blocking the implementation of the latest round of #Russia sanctions that were agreed last week @CER_London.
A split or a splat?
Vlad fires up the tanks and heads West. Who's going to stop him?
Because occupying Western Ukraine would suck the Russian army dry. It'd be like Afghanistan again, only worse because the vat majority of Russian gas exports go through Ukraine
Have just realised that Scottish Independence would mean "complete separation" from Gordon Brown which must be worth having.
Strange how a man with no political authority seems to be selling England's birthright to keep the Scots in the Union at any price. Has anyone asked us? And how big will the bribe have got by this time next week?
Betfair shifting rapidly towards Yes. About to cross 3.00 for the first time since there was serious money in the market.
Interesting. Having traded as low as 2.94 this evening, Yes has since rebounded up to 3.25. Does someone know something we don't? If the leaks are remotely accurate, Yes should be *at least* a 40% shot given the YouGov and Panelbase as well i.e. 2.5 tops.
I actually don't begrudge Gordon Brown finding a bit of salvation going around campaigning the the union. I'm not forgetting he nearly bankrupted it, but this is a good thing.
Yup. He has much more passion and force in his argument than Darling does.
It's also the Scottish Labour vote that's the key swing constituency, so if he can turn that around then good luck to him.
Unfortunately the heels are now worn out and their replacements are also nearly worn out but I laid my hands on a lovely pair of 3" wedges which are very, very comfy to wear and a pair of what I call "corset heels" with straps that criss-cross my feet and ankles. They are a nuisance to put on but they look great.
Betfair shifting rapidly towards Yes. About to cross 3.00 for the first time since there was serious money in the market.
Interesting. Having traded as low as 2.94 this evening, Yes has since rebounded up to 3.25. Does someone know something we don't? If the leaks are remotely accurate, Yes should be *at least* a 40% shot given the YouGov and Panelbase as well i.e. 2.5 tops.
David, do you have a view on the impact postal votes?
I posted on this downthread. YES may need to be ahead by 51% or even 52% to win on polling day if most postal votes have been cast already and were cast in lie with the last umpteenth month average of 60/40 to NO.
So far, no poll has shown them further ahead than a statistical tie, with some generous weighting from Yougov to YES to give them their only poll lead.
If he'd been like this when PM he might still have been in No 10 today and there would have been no referendum.
I doubt it. Brown was electoral poison, true. He came across as an arrogant, uptight bully, true. He came across as barking mad (Youtube) also true. But that on its own doesn't explain his defeat. What did for him was the financial crisis. He was a man who made a virtue out of his economic record then scurried around like a hapless adolescent blaming everybody but himself when it all went wrong, and trying to claw back the credit (and the knighthoods he had given out) for the fact that we were left merely bankrupt rather than actually destitute. It was therefore his policies that did for him.
I compared Gordon Brown's policies on economics and his campaigning slogan 'no time for a novice' to an arsonist, who obligingly calls the fire brigade, being indignant at his arrest because there were other arsonists around who wouldn't have bothered calling the fire brigade so you would have a smoking ruin instead of a charred wreck. I don't think I was alone in that.
Salmond shouldn't have been allowed to extend the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds in the way he did. It was clearly an attempt to boost the chances of a Yes vote.
If you make a change like that it ought to be as part of a generalised package, not implemented just before an important vote in a blatant attempt at self-advantage.
Do you think anybody will bother to ask the English what they think about Scotland being given "devo-max" and also whether they might like some autonomy themselves?
Surely the time to have a serious, sensible discussion about devo-max and a new settlement for England was at the start of the referendum, not in a blind panic with a week to go?
Surely this makes it more likely that that gets on the agenda? Under the devolution status quo, the Westminster parties have been more than happy to sweep English votes for English laws under the carpet. Now they won't be able to.
You would think so, but who know?
Looks like it was all cooked up on the back of a fag packet yesterday to me.
Have just realised that Scottish Independence would mean "complete separation" from Gordon Brown which must be worth having.
Strange how a man with no political authority seems to be selling England's birthright to keep the Scots in the Union at any price. Has anyone asked us? And how big will the bribe have got by this time next week?
Don't shoot the messenger. Or, alternatively, vote him out of office. Oh. Will unionists, including lefties such as I be grateful to Brown? Interesting times.
Johann Lamont is, on the other hand, awful. She just said she'd vote YES if it made schoolkids in Glasgow better off; it's just the figures don't add up.
If that wasn't bad enough, her delivery is flat, she's totally unanimated and gives the impression she's a party delegate who's been given the mic off the floor. And it's her first time speaking in public.
Gordon Brown is shuffling nervously off to the side.
I compared Gordon Brown's policies on economics and his campaigning slogan 'no time for a novice' to an arsonist, who obligingly calls the fire brigade, being indignant at his arrest because there were other arsonists around who wouldn't have bothered calling the fire brigade so you would have a smoking ruin instead of a charred wreck. I don't think I was alone in that.
I found that slogan hilarious, as it was in essence an argument to never change governments, no matter how bad they get. If things are going bad, well, you don't want a novice trying to sort it out, stick with those with experience, and if things are going well, then there's no need to change things, right?
It's the ultimate argument of any governing party of course, but it rarely seems so blatant in admitting, 'Yes, things are crap, but that's no reason to get rid of us'.
Johann Lamont is, on the other hand, awful. She just said she'd vote YES if it made schoolkids in Glasgow better off; it's just the figures don't add up.
If that wasn't bad enough, her delivery is flat, she's totally unanimated and gives the impression she's a party delegate who's been given the mic off the floor. And it's her first time speaking in public.
Gordon Brown is shuffling nervously off to the side.
Thank you. I promise not to post anything about cats. Not that I ever post cat pictures but you know what I mean....
Shoes, OTOH, are still fair game. I still have my shoe fixation. Sometimes I even discuss politics, although when I noticed my share portfolio heading south due to this silly independence thing, I decided that I had best step in again and sort things out.
Besides, a very, very good friend lives in Scotland and I would not like him to be stuck in a foreign country.
Johann Lamont is, on the other hand, awful. She just said she'd vote YES if it made schoolkids in Glasgow better off; it's just the figures don't add up.
If that wasn't bad enough, her delivery is flat, she's totally unanimated and gives the impression she's a party delegate who's been given the mic off the floor. And it's her first time speaking in public.
Gordon Brown is shuffling nervously off to the side.
And this is, of course, one reason why Scottish people haven't been convinced by the Holyrood Parliament - it doesn't attract big guns from Labour.
The only consolation they could have is that the Labour members of the Welsh Assembly are even more useless - Alun Davies would make a sheep look like one of the great intellectuals of the 21st century, and that may be being unfair to sheep.
“We’re doomed!” was the catchphrase of gloomy Scotsman Private Frazer in TV sitcom Dad’s Army. It always worked best as a deflating punchline to the wilder plans of the platoon captain, a plump, officious little man. Delivered in the form of capital flight, small businesses have used the line as a riposte to strengthening support for the independence campaign led by Alex Salmond
Earlier this month, UBS economist Paul Donovan prophesied a Yes vote would bring a “significant risk” of deposits heading south. In fact, the move had already begun. One chief executive tells Lombard she shifted £300,000, the entire cash float of her company, to England starting in May. Contacts at trade bodies and networking groups report a minority of members have done the same.
Ross McCafferty @RossMcCaff 12 mins Gordon Brown: 'not only is Johann Lamont the first female leader of labour in Scotland' Nae luck, Wendy Alexander
To be fair, Wendy Alexander might have briefly led the Holyrood Parliamentary Labour Party but there's no way she was the leader of Labour in Scotland in 2007-8.
I swear, Salmond and Sturgeon must often have a good cackle at how easy this is for them. They are simply much better at politics than any of the other terrible generation of politicians in the UK.
Comments
I know you won't agree with these numbers but, let's say, we're conservative and take 600k postals. 50% of the postals have been cast already at 60-40 NO and the balance are currently being cast at 53-47 NO.
I think (on those figures and a 4 million turnout) YES need to get 51.3% on the day.
Anyone disagree?
It's probably also better for Cameron (and everyone else) as well - if people get used to the idea that Yes may win then it will be less of a shock if it actually happens - in which case there will be less hysteria.
Do you see any indyref value bets out there?
Yes 3
No 1.49
I was wondering what happened to him.
RIP indeed. He was one of PB's finest punters.
1) If Devo Super Max is now on the table, it seems to me like it could easily be spun of less of a big step to vote Yes.
2) Lets presume that it is a close win for NO. That could be the worst of all worlds. A vast percentage of Scots will be pissed at not getting independence, and I can imagine when the England voters start to realise that basically the Scots will be able to take a load of new powers to make the nice decisions, while continuing to blame the English for the bad stuff, they wont be best pleased either.
It is pretty much the only thing they do.
Milibande and Gordon Brown (!!!) have today promised that Labour will move swiftly after a GE victory to deliver deep deep Devomax to Scotland. But - and here's the joke - not do anything whatever about Scottish MPs voting on English laws!
Please, please make a swift offer to all of the UK that after a NO you will put a Federal UK in your manifesto. You can see as plain as the nose in front of your face that England exists. And how much Labour hates it. And how much the English love and are rightly proud of being English. The Scots will want it after a NO. The English will demand it. Just do it. And win by a landslide.
Gordon Brown tells @c4news very few Scots vote Tory. In fact, 413,00 voted Tory 2010, only 80,000 fewer than voted SNP. Holyrood different
There's a chapter about him (Ray Joseph) in this book by Mike Atherton:
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2006/oct/08/sportandleisure.features
Yes 2.86
No 1.5
As a non-voting YES supporter I am very happy with that mistake, although I fear our arch sage OGH maybe right on the final outcome, this latest poll gives me hope that YES will win.
It may shoot Farages fox...
[Is no-one actually GOOD these days? Can no-one do their bloody job]
No. And I'm not just talking about #indyref. I must be old and cynical.
I hear 10-12 EU governments are blocking the implementation of the latest round of #Russia sanctions that were agreed last week @CER_London.
A split or a splat?
What happened?
Ross McCafferty @RossMcCaff 12 mins
Gordon Brown: 'not only is Johann Lamont the first female leader of labour in Scotland' Nae luck, Wendy Alexander
One of the multi flats we visited at the weekend didn't answer the door but clearly had a police radio on inside. What do you think , is the drug dealer demographic for or against? On the one hand self employed business types , very go ahead, on the other surely tempted by another border and the opportunities that might give.
As hard to call as the rest of it I reckon.
You over-rate Labour. They are venal and partisan. So yes they would block.
Scots are too stupid to dimiss nationalism. That's what's happened. We could have aimed to be Japan-esque with panties in vending machines. (Island nation - geddit? Same Demos!!!)
Guess who's back.... Bricky's back....
I wonder if the dislocation from Westminster that the Scots feel is precisely due to people like Brown. Let's have a quick canvass - Brown (awful beyond belief), Darling (not mine), Doogie (Where's he?), Ming (lord knows), Kennedy (hic!) and we can carry on.
It seems perhaps that Jim Murphy might have some credibility in all this, very few Scottish politicans do otherwise.
"Devo Super Max" - read a comic!
Even if they vote no then I think there will be enormous questions about children being allowed to play adult games.
So basically it's the Baltics, Poland and America's poodle. Nice to see some are taking the opportunity to de-escalate.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/does-the-cia-believe-obama/
I remember reading Atherton's book during a hiatus in India. I spent a weekend alone in Ooty, engrossed in that book - Ray's story really stuck in my mind. I couldn't help but feel rather sad for him at the time. Maybe it was the way the book was written, with Atherton projecting his pity onto Ray, or perhaps it was the reflection on myself and the times I've slipped into isolation, but his story very much stuck in my mind. In a weird way, it helped me reassess my own priorities as a young 20-something. Sure, I can profit from punting, but isn't there more to life than chasing the next win and F5'ing an internet forum?
I've got more to thank him for than I realised.
All things in moderation, eh?!
RIP Ray.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/12281_856388237707494_1135148547741887094_n.jpg?oh=77cc9945af3a95232b7a95726d07f914&oe=5488EDE3&__gda__=1418848926_906abc89b7751d1298e5c434c6f46cce
Tell me about it
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11082586/The-voters-of-Clacton-dont-deserve-Matthew-Parriss-sneering-contempt.html
:-)
Surely the time to have a serious, sensible discussion about devo-max and a new settlement for England was at the start of the referendum, not in a blind panic with a week to go?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29115556
So it's rather late for rUK to offer new bribes to Scotland in order to swing votes.
Yes, I noticed. I also noticed SBS mentioned and I am sure that I would remember the name but I cannot recall the expanded version of the acronym.
Honestly - I cannot leave you lot alone for a few months... well years possibly.
That would spell disaster for Ed.
Strange how a man with no political authority seems to be selling England's birthright to keep the Scots in the Union at any price. Has anyone asked us? And how big will the bribe have got by this time next week?
I'm not betting right now on indyref, but If I was, that would be my tip.
It's also the Scottish Labour vote that's the key swing constituency, so if he can turn that around then good luck to him.
Unfortunately the heels are now worn out and their replacements are also nearly worn out but I laid my hands on a lovely pair of 3" wedges which are very, very comfy to wear and a pair of what I call "corset heels" with straps that criss-cross my feet and ankles. They are a nuisance to put on but they look great.
I posted on this downthread. YES may need to be ahead by 51% or even 52% to win on polling day if most postal votes have been cast already and were cast in lie with the last umpteenth month average of 60/40 to NO.
So far, no poll has shown them further ahead than a statistical tie, with some generous weighting from Yougov to YES to give them their only poll lead.
I wonder if this is being taken into account.
I compared Gordon Brown's policies on economics and his campaigning slogan 'no time for a novice' to an arsonist, who obligingly calls the fire brigade, being indignant at his arrest because there were other arsonists around who wouldn't have bothered calling the fire brigade so you would have a smoking ruin instead of a charred wreck. I don't think I was alone in that.
If you make a change like that it ought to be as part of a generalised package, not implemented just before an important vote in a blatant attempt at self-advantage.
Looks like it was all cooked up on the back of a fag packet yesterday to me.
Will unionists, including lefties such as I be grateful to Brown?
Interesting times.
If that wasn't bad enough, her delivery is flat, she's totally unanimated and gives the impression she's a party delegate who's been given the mic off the floor. And it's her first time speaking in public.
Gordon Brown is shuffling nervously off to the side.
Shoes, OTOH, are still fair game. I still have my shoe fixation. Sometimes I even discuss politics, although when I noticed my share portfolio heading south due to this silly independence thing, I decided that I had best step in again and sort things out.
Besides, a very, very good friend lives in Scotland and I would not like him to be stuck in a foreign country.
The only consolation they could have is that the Labour members of the Welsh Assembly are even more useless - Alun Davies would make a sheep look like one of the great intellectuals of the 21st century, and that may be being unfair to sheep.