Mr. Owls, Labour introduced the 'bedroom tax' in the private sector, and the 'privatisation' of the NHS. Being better at spin and making stuff up doesn't alter what Labour did.
If this poll shows another YES lead, as may be the case, I am calling it for YES.
What convinces me is the evidence adduced today by TUD, much as it grieves me. The more people learn about Indy the more they tend to YES. In which case almost nothing can be done, though I urge people to try!
I suspect this is because they hear seductive lies from YES and the boring facts from NO, but nonetheless the trend is not our friend. Go out there and shout about indy, and the people think, hey, I fancy a change. Shut up and do nothing and they will be persuaded by the Nats.
It is nearly time to say Adieu, and to shift our savings. I'm into Pacific equities ex Japan.
'It's 1940, the Germans are in Calais, and SeanT flees to America, with a battered suitcase full of heavily soiled trousers, and gold sovereigns...'
I am the P G Wodehouse of my day. I may do broadcasts for Salmond, after the YES vote.
Lord Hee-Haw - 'New Caledonia calling, New Caledonia calling...'
This government seems to be good at the economics and crap at the politics.
Cameron and his team have lost Ashcroft, Murdoch, several of his key donors, over half the voluntary party and some of his earliest parliamentary supporters.
He still seems baffled as to why - it's always the fault of the ex-supporters, never him, and the only retort seems to be 'yeah, but we're better at The Money than Labour would be'
That's not enough.
Perhaps you could explain. Personally I find it absolutely baffling too, given that this is the best government in living memory other than Maggie's. The only explanation seems to be some childish dislike of Cameron personally, because (we are told) he hasn't been sufficiently charming to sections of the party, which seems a very odd basis on which to elect a Labour government at a time when everything is moving in the right direction.
It's really pointless to talk about the general election and "UKIP prospects" even as Scotland seems to be seceding. It's like discussing next year's Test at Lords as a nuclear missile heads for St John's Wood.
What happened to the famous British stiff upper lip.
You acting all ponceyboots Gaylord make me ashamed to be British.
Sack up you Jessie.
he which hath no stomach to this fight, Let him depart; his passport shall be made, And crowns for convoy put into his purse; We would not die in that man's company That fears his fellowship to die with us.
Keep calm and vote YES?
Nearly. Keep calm and remember you're an Englishman
Ian Jones @ian_a_jones · 46m The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
I'd be suprised if the next poll didn't have Yes going up, after all they were on 35% on the last one! The question is will Yes have a lead, or how small will the No lead be?
Yeah, that's crucial. If NO still have a lead, however small - hope lives.
A YES lead, looks very doomy.
Cameron and Miliband must be quivering with existential fear. I can now reveal for the first time that I believe Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
Although I definitely agree the trend is towards Yes, perhaps YouGov was an outlier in the size of the Yes vote? Especially given that Panelbase (unionist gold standard) shows it tight, but static.
Really you dont think the Toxic Tory policies like the bedroom tax and NHS private sector involvement are big factors?
Yes they are in the short term context but are also symptomatic of Scotland's relative drift longer term from England (or vice versa to be fair) in voting habits over the past 50 odd years. However, Labour's 1997 Devolution settlement was and remains a dog's breakfast (West Lothian and all that) that has always been unstable.
Ian Jones @ian_a_jones · 46m The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
Looking at the Ashcroft specifics, Ed's personal ratings are actually not as disastrous as they are with most polls. Actually I quite like the way Ashcroft asks this question, because he asks people to say how much they dislike someone (on a scale of 1 to 100), rather than the usual straight like/dislike question. The findings in this poll seem to show that while very few people like Ed, for most people it's more of a mild dislike rather than a visceral loathing like Brown had.
Post Yes, you'll be able to mock lefties,and within a few years, you'll be able to go up to Scotland, wave five English pounds at the Scots, who will let you do unspeakable acts of degradation for that fiver, as their economy has tanked, and that fiver makes them the third richest Scot in an Independent Scotland.
This government seems to be good at the economics and crap at the politics.
Cameron and his team have lost Ashcroft, Murdoch, several of his key donors, over half the voluntary party and some of his earliest parliamentary supporters.
He still seems baffled as to why - it's always the fault of the ex-supporters, never him, and the only retort seems to be 'yeah, but we're better at The Money than Labour would be'
That's not enough.
Perhaps you could explain. Personally I find it absolutely baffling too, given that this is the best government in living memory other than Maggie's. The only explanation seems to be some childish dislike of Cameron personally, because (we are told) he hasn't been sufficiently charming to sections of the party, which seems a very odd basis on which to elect a Labour government at a time when everything is moving in the right direction.
You think the Right of the party's problem is that Cameron hasn't been sufficiently charming? What about progress towards the net immigration target being just 5% over five years? How about the refusal to spell out what we want back from the EU? How about voluntarily handing over more powers to Brussels? How about the bringing back of the snoopers' charter, and very little repeal of New Labour's big brother state?
BTW, I have a very happy memory of him and Alexander McCall Smith whose novels I also like, but which tend to be about a rather more elevated level of Edinensian society. A newspaper was trying to wind them up into criticising each other but they saw it coming a mile off, weren't having any of it and spoke of each other in the most charming and polite terms. Exemplary.
Post Yes, you'll be able to mock lefties,and within a few years, you'll be able to go up to Scotland, wave five English pounds at the Scots, who will let you do unspeakable acts of degradation for that fiver, as their economy has tanked, and that fiver makes them the third richest Scot in an Independent Scotland.
English homeowners can look forward to Scottish plumbers and electricians fighting with Polish builders to provide the lowest quotes.
Ian Jones @ian_a_jones · 46m The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
Tease!
Actually that speaks volumes. For it to be sensational it has to be something big, and the only thing big would be a Yes lead.
Down thread there is a tweet suggesting that this poll will reflect the trend.
That doesn't meant that it will show a Yes but it does suggest that it might.
I am starting to believe that this disaster will happen.
Though if I were Scots I would probably vote Yes - just too romantic an idea to be part of a generation that started its own country, regardless of the massive risks.
The great sadness in this is if the Scots vote YES for romantic, historic and nationalist reasons of the heart, how will they react when their new found freedom is taken from them by Eck in a bargain with the EU?
I personally believe that NO will win by a decent margin.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
Of course we'll tolerate it. No one is suggesting we march on Gretna Green.
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone. And really boring and tedious. Think of the most bitter divorce, the squabbles over ownership of the Nespresso machine, then multiply it by fourteen trillion billion.
And I have lots of family in Scotland. They are going to suffer economically. And I feel especially for people like DavidL. Passionately Scottish, but passionately British, too. At least I will still be British, albeit in a rather altered way, still a citizen of the UK, flying the Union Jack.
For people like DavidL they are going to have that part of them ripped away. And pointlessly. We could have given Scotland devomax and none of this would have happened.
Stupid Stupid Stupid. And awful.
Indeed. Someone said the other day it was like a great piece of art being unnecessarily defaced. I thought that was a good analogy.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone.
You're speaking for yourself there. And you don't half over dramaticise on occasion.
Ian Jones @ian_a_jones · 46m The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
Far be it from me to leap to the defence of a former and aspirant Labour MP, but surely the concept of "Britishness" is robust enough to survive the political separation of 8% of the population of the UK (some of whom did not regard themselves as "British" in the first place?
I was born in Scotland and am both Scottish and British - I do not suffer from the inferiority complex that drives some of my countrymen to despise the English - we all share this windy rock in the North Atlantic, and have achieved astonishing and heroic things together. The global lingua Franca is ours - as is much of the democratic world's infrastructure - compare and contrast the fates of our Empire with others''.
And this will somehow be destroyed because a bit over 3% of the UK's population vote to change the way they are governed?
I'd be suprised if the next poll didn't have Yes going up, after all they were on 35% on the last one! The question is will Yes have a lead, or how small will the No lead be?
Yeah, that's crucial. If NO still have a lead, however small - hope lives.
A YES lead, looks very doomy.
Cameron and Miliband must be quivering with existential fear. I can now reveal for the first time that I believe Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
Although I definitely agree the trend is towards Yes, perhaps YouGov was an outlier in the size of the Yes vote? Especially given that Panelbase (unionist gold standard) shows it tight, but static.
Rob - Con got 33 in the YouGov Sunday Times, not 32 as per your spreadsheet.
Down thread there is a tweet suggesting that this poll will reflect the trend.
That doesn't meant that it will show a Yes but it does suggest that it might.
I am starting to believe that this disaster will happen.
Though if I were Scots I would probably vote Yes - just too romantic an idea to be part of a generation that started its own country, regardless of the massive risks.
The great sadness in this is if the Scots vote YES for romantic, historic and nationalist reasons of the heart, how will they react when their new found freedom is taken from them by Eck in a bargain with the EU?
I personally believe that NO will win by a decent margin.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Yet politicalbetting.com is full of posters saying Cameron is an electoral disaster.
Hell, even Osborne gets a higher rating than any of the other politicians, apart from Cameron, named in that list.
This government seems to be good at the economics and crap at the politics.
Cameron and his team have lost Ashcroft, Murdoch, several of his key donors, over half the voluntary party and some of his earliest parliamentary supporters.
He still seems baffled as to why - it's always the fault of the ex-supporters, never him, and the only retort seems to be 'yeah, but we're better at The Money than Labour would be'
That's not enough.
Ashcroft was actually becoming a negative - he wasn't completely straight about his finances. Murdoch is a poison to the British culture. No great losses there.
"We're better at the Money". If you want long term quality for your public services you have to have proper control over your public spending.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
Of course we'll tolerate it. No one is suggesting we march on Gretna Green.
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone. And really boring and tedious. Think of the most bitter divorce, the squabbles over ownership of the Nespresso machine, then multiply it by fourteen trillion billion.
And I have lots of family in Scotland. They are going to suffer economically. And I feel especially for people like DavidL. Passionately Scottish, but passionately British, too. At least I will still be British, albeit in a rather altered way, still a citizen of the UK, flying the Union Jack.
For people like DavidL they are going to have that part of them ripped away. And pointlessly. We could have given Scotland devomax and none of this would have happened.
Stupid Stupid Stupid. And awful.
Cameron behaves as if he has had an instruction to break up the UK.
As for letting his political enemies like Brown, Salmond make all the running, it is hard to see how he intends to carry on in 2 weeks time. If he is defenestrated, I won't weep.
Far be it from me to leap to the defence of a former and aspirant Labour MP, but surely the concept of "Britishness" is robust enough to survive the political separation of 8% of the population of the UK (some of whom did not regard themselves as "British" in the first place?
I was born in Scotland and am both Scottish and British - I do not suffer from the inferiority complex that drives some of my countrymen to despise the English - we all share this windy rock in the North Atlantic, and have achieved astonishing and heroic things together. The global lingua Franca is ours - as is much of the democratic world's infrastructure - compare and contrast the fates of our Empire with others''.
And this will somehow be destroyed because a bit over 3% of the UK's population vote to change the way they are governed?
I imagine the term "British" will be entirely lost, other than for geography, and the term "UK" will be used as an adjective for the rUK.
@ewenmacaskill: Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence.
Down thread there is a tweet suggesting that this poll will reflect the trend.
That doesn't meant that it will show a Yes but it does suggest that it might.
I am starting to believe that this disaster will happen.
Though if I were Scots I would probably vote Yes - just too romantic an idea to be part of a generation that started its own country, regardless of the massive risks.
The great sadness in this is if the Scots vote YES for romantic, historic and nationalist reasons of the heart, how will they react when their new found freedom is taken from them by Eck in a bargain with the EU?
I personally believe that NO will win by a decent margin.
@ewenmacaskill: Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence.
Please someone, remove all the scissors from SeanT's flat, and make sure he stays away from Beachy Head.
Ed goes campaigning in Scotland and Yes takes the lead.
Is all Ed's fault.
So REd goes down like cold sick in Scotland. God knows what he'll go down as in E&W.
As I said the other night, end campaigns for Yes2AV against Dave and Yes2AV gets pounded like a Dockside Hooker.
He campaigns for No, and Yes take the lead.
In the 2015 General Election campaign, it's going to be carnage for Labour.
ONLY if Scotland votes YES, my poor misguided Tory child!
You're just misunderestimating how toxic Ed Miliband is.
Has someone done a correlation between REd on TV and Labour vote?
Labour will try and get away with having no policies for the election, but can they get away with not having a leader? He could go the way of Charlie K and have "stomach aches" - for the whole 5 weeks, or "TB" (brought it by an imported new Labour voter). They'll try and magic an excuse.
I'd be suprised if the next poll didn't have Yes going up, after all they were on 35% on the last one! The question is will Yes have a lead, or how small will the No lead be?
Yeah, that's crucial. If NO still have a lead, however small - hope lives.
A YES lead, looks very doomy.
Cameron and Miliband must be quivering with existential fear. I can now reveal for the first time that I believe Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
Although I definitely agree the trend is towards Yes, perhaps YouGov was an outlier in the size of the Yes vote? Especially given that Panelbase (unionist gold standard) shows it tight, but static.
Rob - Con got 33 in the YouGov Sunday Times, not 32 as per your spreadsheet.
Far be it from me to leap to the defence of a former and aspirant Labour MP, but surely the concept of "Britishness" is robust enough to survive the political separation of 8% of the population of the UK (some of whom did not regard themselves as "British" in the first place?
I was born in Scotland and am both Scottish and British - I do not suffer from the inferiority complex that drives some of my countrymen to despise the English - we all share this windy rock in the North Atlantic, and have achieved astonishing and heroic things together. The global lingua Franca is ours - as is much of the democratic world's infrastructure - compare and contrast the fates of our Empire with others''.
And this will somehow be destroyed because a bit over 3% of the UK's population vote to change the way they are governed?
I imagine the term "British" will be entirely lost, other than for geography, and the term "UK" will be used as an adjective for the rUK.
Nonsense.
Many non-British born and non-white Britons prefer "British" - so it will survive and prosper...
Ian Jones @ian_a_jones · 46m The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
Down thread there is a tweet suggesting that this poll will reflect the trend.
That doesn't meant that it will show a Yes but it does suggest that it might.
I am starting to believe that this disaster will happen.
Though if I were Scots I would probably vote Yes - just too romantic an idea to be part of a generation that started its own country, regardless of the massive risks.
The great sadness in this is if the Scots vote YES for romantic, historic and nationalist reasons of the heart, how will they react when their new found freedom is taken from them by Eck in a bargain with the EU?
I personally believe that NO will win by a decent margin.
For once, you and I agree
We probably agree on lots of things if we but knew it. I think that Farage will make a speech on the 12th in Edinburgh or Glasgow (I forget which) in support of NO.
@Carnyx The usual ignorance posing as informed reason. While I support the idea of people uniting in a common cause, the idea of a "magnificent" and "infallible" UK is starting to give me that queasy feeling you get before a world cup. Britain is broken, and has been for a long time, the sooner people stop the nostalgia for a past long gone, the sooner it can be mended. (the same can be said for quite a few on the "yes" side as well)
I'd be suprised if the next poll didn't have Yes going up, after all they were on 35% on the last one! The question is will Yes have a lead, or how small will the No lead be?
Yeah, that's crucial. If NO still have a lead, however small - hope lives.
A YES lead, looks very doomy.
Cameron and Miliband must be quivering with existential fear. I can now reveal for the first time that I believe Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
Although I definitely agree the trend is towards Yes, perhaps YouGov was an outlier in the size of the Yes vote? Especially given that Panelbase (unionist gold standard) shows it tight, but static.
Rob - Con got 33 in the YouGov Sunday Times, not 32 as per your spreadsheet.
@ewenmacaskill: Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence.
Does "shift to independence" mean independence in the lead, or simply that there's been a big swing since the last TNS poll (which showed a large "No" lead)? Both are things that will be very different in the current context.
Incidentally, the Ashcroft poll is effectively meaningless (likewise all national polls until the referendum is sorted). If Scotland leaves it'll change the political atmosphere dramatically.
It at least gives us a base state with which to compare changes.
One [albeit minor] complication will be that if, say after a YES, the SNP surge in Westminster voting intention in GB opinion polls that will depress the headline Labour poll share, even where the Labour support in England and Wales is steady.
One thing that is interesting is the general overlooking of the Westminster "promises" made in the event of a No vote.
As far as I can see it, when the English, Welsh, Northern Ireland and areas like Cornwall/Devon plus the major cities wake up to it, there is a federal system on offer.
If Salmond has done anything, he certainly has potentially changed the system of government in the UK and if the dice falls, rUK and Northern Ireland as well as Scotland.
I'd be suprised if the next poll didn't have Yes going up, after all they were on 35% on the last one! The question is will Yes have a lead, or how small will the No lead be?
Yeah, that's crucial. If NO still have a lead, however small - hope lives.
A YES lead, looks very doomy.
Cameron and Miliband must be quivering with existential fear. I can now reveal for the first time that I believe Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
Although I definitely agree the trend is towards Yes, perhaps YouGov was an outlier in the size of the Yes vote? Especially given that Panelbase (unionist gold standard) shows it tight, but static.
Rob - Con got 33 in the YouGov Sunday Times, not 32 as per your spreadsheet.
In actual fact they got 33.78!
So why has it been reported as 33 and not 34? Surely all polls are reported to the nearest whole number?
I personally believe that NO will win by a decent margin.
I would like to believe that "No" will win, but I am starting to wonder. I find it hard to believe that anyone would take such stupid, senseless risks and yet I am well aware of the huge chip on many Scottish shoulders - "Hate the English". Over the years, as a "fellow Celt" I have been subjected to many anti-English tirades that I have been expected to endorse, or least tolerate. I fear that many of the "Yes" voters are more concerned with giving England the Two Fingered Salute than any consequences of the vote.
Personally, I hope that "No" wins by a considerable margin.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone.
You're speaking for yourself there. And you don't half over dramaticise on occasion.
Whatever happened to that run on the pound that was supposed to start today? It is a couple of points off but I would hardly call that a run. Far, far too much drama being hawked about.
an Jones @ian_a_jones The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
@SeanT We have relatively low unemployment, but it is paid for out of tax in the form of credits and benefits, Look at the figures for god's sake, and stop getting high sniffing the gas from Osbourne's arse.
I'd be suprised if the next poll didn't have Yes going up, after all they were on 35% on the last one! The question is will Yes have a lead, or how small will the No lead be?
Yeah, that's crucial. If NO still have a lead, however small - hope lives.
A YES lead, looks very doomy.
Cameron and Miliband must be quivering with existential fear. I can now reveal for the first time that I believe Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
Although I definitely agree the trend is towards Yes, perhaps YouGov was an outlier in the size of the Yes vote? Especially given that Panelbase (unionist gold standard) shows it tight, but static.
Rob - Con got 33 in the YouGov Sunday Times, not 32 as per your spreadsheet.
In actual fact they got 33.78!
So why has it been reported as 33 and not 34? Surely all polls are reported to the nearest whole number?
I read it as: Lab 35.56 (so Labour should be 36, not 35!) Con 33.78 (as we just said) UKIP 15.17 LD 6.95
Sample size was 1961, but 23% were DK/refused so actual sample who expressed a choice was 1510.
I doubt it - it's not a United Kingdom if one of the union partners has disunited!
Yes, but they're outside the "united" bit once they leave. The bits included in the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Those bits will indeed be united.
Far be it from me to leap to the defence of a former and aspirant Labour MP, but surely the concept of "Britishness" is robust enough to survive the political separation of 8% of the population of the UK (some of whom did not regard themselves as "British" in the first place?
I was born in Scotland and am both Scottish and British - I do not suffer from the inferiority complex that drives some of my countrymen to despise the English - we all share this windy rock in the North Atlantic, and have achieved astonishing and heroic things together. The global lingua Franca is ours - as is much of the democratic world's infrastructure - compare and contrast the fates of our Empire with others''.
And this will somehow be destroyed because a bit over 3% of the UK's population vote to change the way they are governed?
I imagine the term "British" will be entirely lost, other than for geography, and the term "UK" will be used as an adjective for the rUK.
Nonsense.
Many non-British born and non-white Britons prefer "British" - so it will survive and prosper...
I hope you're right, but I can't see it. We'd need to keep "Britain" in the name of the state somehow. Maybe the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland.
an Jones @ian_a_jones The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone.
You're speaking for yourself there. And you don't half over dramaticise on occasion.
Whatever happened to that run on the pound that was supposed to start today? It is a couple of points off but I would hardly call that a run. Far, far too much drama being hawked about.
It's at a ten month low. If the next poll is "bad" it will fall further. After a YES vote experts predict a depreciation of 10%. Maybe 20%. So inflation will go up.
And that's just the £.
This isn't scare-mongering, it is basic economics. Markets hate instability and we are about to do the most destabilising thing imaginable.
I don't mean to be rude, but the markets are moving already. GBPUSD has gone from 1.72 to 1.61 in a couple of weeks. It might reach 1.50 on break-up, but I wouldn't reckon it it going much further. And a move to 1.50 would be extremely good for British exporters.
It really isn't broken. If you want to see broken go to Syria. Go to Africa. Go to parts of southern Europe, FFS.
We have relatively low unemployment, robust growth, a thriving culture, a peaceful land, a wonderful global language (ours!), we have beautiful Europe on our doorstep. We have falling crime, we have healthy industries, we have wonderful countryside and landscapes. We have so much people are desperate to get in.
Of course we have major problems but so does every country on earth, without exception.
This narrative of broken Britain (peddled by Tories as well when it suits) is just insane. What will break Britain is, well, you know, BREAKING UP BRITAIN.
Sean, there is no point in trying to convince a cod-Marxist on this front. @Smarmeron will maintain that any nation state which doesn't implement his chimerical millenarian utopia is broken.
OK people I'm getting numbers and posts around in twitter that say what we are all thinking about the TNS poll. The embargo is holding up, but its a matter of hours or minutes until it cannot be contained.
" Ewen MacAskill @ewenmacaskill · 19m Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence."
This government seems to be good at the economics and crap at the politics.
Cameron and his team have lost Ashcroft, Murdoch, several of his key donors, over half the voluntary party and some of his earliest parliamentary supporters.
He still seems baffled as to why - it's always the fault of the ex-supporters, never him, and the only retort seems to be 'yeah, but we're better at The Money than Labour would be'
That's not enough.
Perhaps you could explain. Personally I find it absolutely baffling too, given that this is the best government in living memory other than Maggie's. The only explanation seems to be some childish dislike of Cameron personally, because (we are told) he hasn't been sufficiently charming to sections of the party, which seems a very odd basis on which to elect a Labour government at a time when everything is moving in the right direction.
I think Cameron does two things: his default mode is autopilot and doesn't really pick sides, until there is a problem. Then he does whatever is most politically expedient without thinking through the long-term consequences. He does this because he has no strong beliefs or principles. Therefore he's moved from a position from where he's progressively alienated constituency after constituency as this phenomena has played out over the last few years. Because he tries to reactively satisfy everyone, and the end point from him isn't clear, people have concluded he doesn't really stand for anything.
I think he also combines this with astonishingly naive people management. Apart from his close friends he loses interest once the problem has been 'fixed' so those on the losing side feel used and unappreciated. Completely anecdotal I've also heard he ignores the usual pleasantries of saying 'hello' and 'how are you?' to backbenchers, supporters and staff - he never, for example, speaks to the HoC staff or his chaffeur as Maggie did. So it feels a bit like he chooses to live in his own bubble and that everyone should be happy with that by right. Not surprisingly some find this very rude.
When you combine the two, you have a toxic mix. He looks and sounds like a leader without actually being one.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone.
You're speaking for yourself there. And you don't half over dramaticise on occasion.
Whatever happened to that run on the pound that was supposed to start today? It is a couple of points off but I would hardly call that a run. Far, far too much drama being hawked about.
It's at a ten month low. If the next poll is "bad" it will fall further. After a YES vote experts predict a depreciation of 10%. Maybe 20%. So inflation will go up.
And that's just the £.
This isn't scare-mongering, it is basic economics. Markets hate instability and we are about to do the most destabilising thing imaginable.
I don't mean to be rude, but the markets are moving already. GBPUSD has gone from 1.72 to 1.61 in a couple of weeks. It might reach 1.50 on break-up, but I wouldn't reckon it it going much further. And a move to 1.50 would be extremely good for British exporters.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 1m Ashcroft National Poll, 5-7 September: CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Back to the drawing board for Dave & Co.
Peter, nothing is changing, nor will it until after IndyRef. Even then the conferences will confuse things as usual, so we need to wait until late October before looking for significant movement (or lack thereof). You keep micro-analysing noise - some polls are better for the Tories, some worse, but overall there's not much movement.
Richard - with due respect - if one isn't allowed to comment on polls, or identify trends therefrom, then what's the point in commissioning them at vast expense in the first instance?
They're not that expensive to commission any more thanks to internet polling which is presumably one reason why there are so many of them.
OK people I'm getting numbers and posts around in twitter that say what we are all thinking about the TNS poll. The embargo is holding up, but its a matter of hours or minutes until it cannot be contained.
" Ewen MacAskill @ewenmacaskill · 19m Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence."
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone.
You're speaking for yourself there. And you don't half over dramaticise on occasion.
Whatever happened to that run on the pound that was supposed to start today? It is a couple of points off but I would hardly call that a run. Far, far too much drama being hawked about.
It's at a ten month low. If the next poll is "bad" it will fall further. After a YES vote experts predict a depreciation of 10%. Maybe 20%. So inflation will go up.
And that's just the £.
This isn't scare-mongering, it is basic economics. Markets hate instability and we are about to do the most destabilising thing imaginable.
You might be right Mr. T, but you did yesterday predict a run on the pound starting today. That hasn't happened. A gentle downward drift that has been going on for a while has continued, probably got sod all to do with the Scotland business. The worst the Telegraph could come with this morning, and this under a headline of "Sterling tumbles after poll shows 51pc support Scottish exit", is some bloke from a Frog bank predicting a 3 to 5 percent fall in the event of a yes vote. I think I'll hold off from the panic just yet.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone.
You're speaking for yourself there. And you don't half over dramaticise on occasion.
Whatever happened to that run on the pound that was supposed to start today? It is a couple of points off but I would hardly call that a run. Far, far too much drama being hawked about.
It's at a ten month low. If the next poll is "bad" it will fall further. After a YES vote experts predict a depreciation of 10%. Maybe 20%. So inflation will go up.
And that's just the £.
This isn't scare-mongering, it is basic economics. Markets hate instability and we are about to do the most destabilising thing imaginable.
I don't mean to be rude, but the markets are moving already. GBPUSD has gone from 1.72 to 1.61 in a couple of weeks. It might reach 1.50 on break-up, but I wouldn't reckon it it going much further. And a move to 1.50 would be extremely good for British exporters.
Good for exporters, bad for importers of energy and food, and therefore all of us.
You predicted an easy NO win, you were clearly wrong. You are wrong here, as well: this is gonna be an economic and political earthquake. Let's hope it is relatively short. Two years at best?
I know people dislike hearing this stuff, but it is the case.
Actually, I'm not wrong. It will be a comfortable win for 'no'.
There would be no need for any immediate alteration to the name of the state. After all, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland only came into being with the passage of the Royal and Parliamentary Titles Act 1927, long after the Irish Free State (Constitution) Act 1922 had entered into force.
Far be it from me to leap to the defence of a former and aspirant Labour MP, but surely the concept of "Britishness" is robust enough to survive the political separation of 8% of the population of the UK (some of whom did not regard themselves as "British" in the first place?
I was born in Scotland and am both Scottish and British - I do not suffer from the inferiority complex that drives some of my countrymen to despise the English - we all share this windy rock in the North Atlantic, and have achieved astonishing and heroic things together. The global lingua Franca is ours - as is much of the democratic world's infrastructure - compare and contrast the fates of our Empire with others''.
And this will somehow be destroyed because a bit over 3% of the UK's population vote to change the way they are governed?
I imagine the term "British" will be entirely lost, other than for geography, and the term "UK" will be used as an adjective for the rUK.
Nonsense.
Many non-British born and non-white Britons prefer "British" - so it will survive and prosper...
I hope you're right, but I can't see it. We'd need to keep "Britain" in the name of the state somehow. Maybe the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland.
Why not just the United Kingdom of Britain, and Northern Ireland? Or just the United Kingdom of England Wales and Northern Ireland. if people still want to call themselves British, they will, cf the BBC. It's too good a brand to drop. The name will just refer to the island, not the polity.
We could always use the United Kingdom of Britannia and Northern Ireland:
@ewenmacaskill: Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence.
Please someone, remove all the scissors from SeanT's flat, and make sure he stays away from Beachy Head.
lol. I'm sad but I'm hardly suicidal. I am also making money already, out of this disaster.
Really? Disasters are earthquakes, wars, famines and tsunamis with thousands dead.
3% of a population possibly voting for independence, comes nowhere near.
If the Cyberunionists can tolerate Ireland being an independent nation, why can't they do the same for Scotland - should they vote YES, natch?
We're just sad that a successful and rather magnificent country is being broken up, and we are also fucking scared about the economic and political consequences, which will be initially grim for everyone.
You're speaking for yourself there. And you don't half over dramaticise on occasion.
Whatever happened to that run on the pound that was supposed to start today? It is a couple of points off but I would hardly call that a run. Far, far too much drama being hawked about.
It's at a ten month low. If the next poll is "bad" it will fall further. After a YES vote experts predict a depreciation of 10%. Maybe 20%. So inflation will go up.
And that's just the £.
This isn't scare-mongering, it is basic economics. Markets hate instability and we are about to do the most destabilising thing imaginable.
I don't mean to be rude, but the markets are moving already. GBPUSD has gone from 1.72 to 1.61 in a couple of weeks. It might reach 1.50 on break-up, but I wouldn't reckon it it going much further. And a move to 1.50 would be extremely good for British exporters.
Good for exporters, bad for importers of energy and food, and therefore all of us.
You predicted an easy NO win, you were clearly wrong. You are wrong here, as well: this is gonna be an economic and political earthquake. Let's hope it is relatively short. Two years at best?
I know people dislike hearing this stuff, but it is the case.
Actually, I'm not wrong. It will be a comfortable win for 'no'.
Surely you should wait for the TNS before declaring that!
@ewenmacaskill: Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence.
Please someone, remove all the scissors from SeanT's flat, and make sure he stays away from Beachy Head.
lol. I'm sad but I'm hardly suicidal. I am also making money already, out of this disaster.
Really? Disasters are earthquakes, wars, famines and tsunamis with thousands dead.
3% of a population possibly voting for independence, comes nowhere near.
We'll see. After the Soviet Union dissolved, the smallest republics got the greatest decline in GDP, in some cases 90% decline in the economy.
There would be no need for any immediate alteration to the name of the state. After all, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland only came into being with the passage of the Royal and Parliamentary Titles Act 1927, long after the Irish Free State (Constitution) Act 1922 had entered into force.
"United States of America" doesn't include Canada or anywhere from Mexico southwards!
Comments
Anyway, I am off for a little bit.
The carrot is the exceptional use of everyone's hopes and dreams in the messaging, easy to then shoot down any counter argument as fear.
The stick is a ruthless ground and internet war that intimidates those into silence with aggression who disagree.
Both put NO constantly on the defensive. It's ruthless, and nasty, but effective.
The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
Sell the rumor, buy the fact.
Post Yes, you'll be able to mock lefties,and within a few years, you'll be able to go up to Scotland, wave five English pounds at the Scots, who will let you do unspeakable acts of degradation for that fiver, as their economy has tanked, and that fiver makes them the third richest Scot in an Independent Scotland.
He campaigns for No, and Yes take the lead.
In the 2015 General Election campaign, it's going to be carnage for Labour.
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/09/08/labour-pains-labour-of-love/
BTW, I have a very happy memory of him and Alexander McCall Smith whose novels I also like, but which tend to be about a rather more elevated level of Edinensian society. A newspaper was trying to wind them up into criticising each other but they saw it coming a mile off, weren't having any of it and spoke of each other in the most charming and polite terms. Exemplary.
It is making at least one "no" voter reconsider their position.
Jesus.
TNS shows a Yes lead too?
Snowball effect?
For it to be sensational it has to be something big, and the only thing big would be a Yes lead.
I personally believe that NO will win by a decent margin.
I was born in Scotland and am both Scottish and British - I do not suffer from the inferiority complex that drives some of my countrymen to despise the English - we all share this windy rock in the North Atlantic, and have achieved astonishing and heroic things together. The global lingua Franca is ours - as is much of the democratic world's infrastructure - compare and contrast the fates of our Empire with others''.
And this will somehow be destroyed because a bit over 3% of the UK's population vote to change the way they are governed?
Then life will return to normal as everyone just gets on with it.
We appreciate their sacrifice.
Love the Tories xxxx
"We're better at the Money". If you want long term quality for your public services you have to have proper control over your public spending.
As for letting his political enemies like Brown, Salmond make all the running, it is hard to see how he intends to carry on in 2 weeks time. If he is defenestrated, I won't weep.
Reading about the referendum on here would most likely turn the No-est of the Noes to Hell Yeah!
But yes would give me a bigger betting return.
Has someone done a correlation between REd on TV and Labour vote?
Labour will try and get away with having no policies for the election, but can they get away with not having a leader? He could go the way of Charlie K and have "stomach aches" - for the whole 5 weeks, or "TB" (brought it by an imported new Labour voter). They'll try and magic an excuse.
Many non-British born and non-white Britons prefer "British" - so it will survive and prosper...
I doubt it - it's not a United Kingdom if one of the union partners has disunited!
The usual ignorance posing as informed reason.
While I support the idea of people uniting in a common cause, the idea of a "magnificent" and "infallible" UK is starting to give me that queasy feeling you get before a world cup.
Britain is broken, and has been for a long time, the sooner people stop the nostalgia for a past long gone, the sooner it can be mended.
(the same can be said for quite a few on the "yes" side as well)
One [albeit minor] complication will be that if, say after a YES, the SNP surge in Westminster voting intention in GB opinion polls that will depress the headline Labour poll share, even where the Labour support in England and Wales is steady.
As far as I can see it, when the English, Welsh, Northern Ireland and areas like Cornwall/Devon plus the major cities wake up to it, there is a federal system on offer.
If Salmond has done anything, he certainly has potentially changed the system of government in the UK and if the dice falls, rUK and Northern Ireland as well as Scotland.
Personally, I hope that "No" wins by a considerable margin.
@ian_a_jones
The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.
You are making the classic error that this is down to anti Englishness. It's not. Some Yes voters are anti English, as are some No voters.
The swing voters are those voting Yes for the romantic vision of starting a new, centre-left nation.
It's a hard thing to fight.
was Lab 35.9, Con 32.8, UKIP 14.7, LD 7.3
Now, compared with last week's ELBOW:
Lab 35.9 (-0.1)
Con 33.1 (+0.9)
UKIP 14.5 (-0.0)
LD 7.4 (-0.4)
Compared with the first ELBOW on 17th August:
Lab -0.3
Con -0.0
UKIP +1.4
LD -1.4
We have relatively low unemployment, but it is paid for out of tax in the form of credits and benefits, Look at the figures for god's sake, and stop getting high sniffing the gas from Osbourne's arse.
Lab 35.56 (so Labour should be 36, not 35!)
Con 33.78 (as we just said)
UKIP 15.17
LD 6.95
Sample size was 1961, but 23% were DK/refused so actual sample who expressed a choice was 1510.
It's over....!
The embargo is holding up, but its a matter of hours or minutes until it cannot be contained.
" Ewen MacAskill @ewenmacaskill · 19m
Bad news for no campaign in Scottish referendum. YouGov poll not a blip. Next batch of polling expected to confirm shift to independence."
Matthew Parris has done the Conservatives no favours.
I think he also combines this with astonishingly naive people management. Apart from his close friends he loses interest once the problem has been 'fixed' so those on the losing side feel used and unappreciated. Completely anecdotal I've also heard he ignores the usual pleasantries of saying 'hello' and 'how are you?' to backbenchers, supporters and staff - he never, for example, speaks to the HoC staff or his chaffeur as Maggie did. So it feels a bit like he chooses to live in his own bubble and that everyone should be happy with that by right. Not surprisingly some find this very rude.
When you combine the two, you have a toxic mix. He looks and sounds like a leader without actually being one.
Rest easy everyone.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/09/surprise-gordon-brown-sets-out-devolution-timetable/
Back Switzerland to win
Sub 3s ?
By how many though...
Sorry to puncture your panic bubble.
http://redfellow.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/britannias.jpg
3% of a population possibly voting for independence, comes nowhere near.
Stay away from caffeine based drinks.
Is why I'm going silent, people read too much into my comments.
After the Soviet Union dissolved, the smallest republics got the greatest decline in GDP, in some cases 90% decline in the economy.
It's the way you tell 'em.