The odds of a “photo finish” with the margin of victory being less than 1% have now hit 8/1 – you could have got 33/1 when we first quoted that possibility last month.
The YES vote percentage line has moved up from 43.5% to 47.5% in less than a week...
... We’ve also started to see some shrewd money on the SNP picking up some unlikely gains from Labour in next year’s Westminster general election. We’ve shortened their odds in a number of seats including Glasgow East, Glenrothes and Airdrie & Shotts.
The odds of a “photo finish” with the margin of victory being less than 1% have now hit 8/1 – you could have got 33/1 when we first quoted that possibility last month.
The YES vote percentage line has moved up from 43.5% to 47.5% in less than a week...
... We’ve also started to see some shrewd money on the SNP picking up some unlikely gains from Labour in next year’s Westminster general election. We’ve shortened their odds in a number of seats including Glasgow East, Glenrothes and Airdrie & Shotts.
You mean 'respected the sovereign will of the Scottish people' you Natters keep wittering on about?
That was to do with having the referendum, not with his actions during the campaign. He didn't need a passport, for heaven's sake.
The only role any Englishman, politician or otherwise, should have had in the Referendum campaign is to point out any factual mistakes made by participants relating to rUKs attitudes and policies. For the rest we, the English should have kept out. It is nothing to do with us.
Yes it is! It is totally for them to decide, and it might be advisable for the English to keep quiet, but it is not nothing to do with us. We are also affected. That doesn't mean our views should sway them, or they have to agree with anything we say, particularly as our perspective is crucially different, but it is still our business too, we should be and are free to venture an opinion
Brown takes charge as Cameron backs his plan for "Scottish Home Rule" - The former PM seizes the initiative with a timetable for further devolution to Scotland.
Gordon Brown may not be in office, but he is in power. After the former prime minister, in his own words, seized "the initiative" by announcing a timetable for further devolution to the Scottish parliament in the event of a No vote, Westminster was bemused.
... After tonight, it no longer feels an exaggeration to say that if the Union survives, Brown will be recorded by history as the man who saved it. But that his intervention comes so late, after thousands have already voted by post, and seems so desperate, means it may have little positive effect - and could even harm the Unionist cause.
That was a pretty patchy performance from England but surely they qualified tonight in their first game? To beat their main rivals away from home is a fantastic result.
We are getting a thread, it is very awkward for Mike.
Some pollsters are very strict on observing their embargo, just because others have violated it, then you shouldn't because others are.
Violate their embargo, and well they'll never send you another poll again.
if the data tables are on their website, have they not broken their own embargo?
My guess is that Mike's picked up on the same points that people here have. Frankly, i'd be a little bit annoyed if I was OGH, Spending a while drafting and editing a post and not being able to publish it until after everyone else has already had their say. Still, an embargo is an embargo. It's out of Mike's hands,
Brown takes charge as Cameron backs his plan for "Scottish Home Rule" - The former PM seizes the initiative with a timetable for further devolution to Scotland.
Gordon Brown may not be in office, but he is in power. After the former prime minister, in his own words, seized "the initiative" by announcing a timetable for further devolution to the Scottish parliament in the event of a No vote, Westminster was bemused.
... After tonight, it no longer feels an exaggeration to say that if the Union survives, Brown will be recorded by history as the man who saved it. But that his intervention comes so late, after thousands have already voted by post, and seems so desperate, means it may have little positive effect - and could even harm the Unionist cause.
We are getting a thread, it is very awkward for Mike.
Some pollsters are very strict on observing their embargo, just because others have violated it, then you shouldn't because others are.
Violate their embargo, and well they'll never send you another poll again.
if the data tables are on their website, have they not broken their own embargo?
My guess is that Mike's picked up on the same points that people here have. Frankly, i'd be a little bit annoyed if I was OGH, Spending a while drafting and editing a post and not being able to publish it until after everyone else has already had their say. Still, an embargo is an embargo. It's out of Mike's hands,
General rule in journalism is that if you break an embargo, you won't get another one.
The prospect is bound to unnerve some wobblier YES voters - what will it be like AFTER they vote YES, if it's this bad after a few polls?
Not since the rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland have investors moved so fast to protect themselves against short-term ructions in the pound. Rising fear that Scots might vote next week to leave the UK has seen demand for two-week options on a fall in sterling jump by the most since October 2008.
Still working on it, but that open gap that we had between Friday night close, and last night open, up to around GBPUSD 1.6320 looks as though it needs filling, before more weakness. Danger of getting too greedy though on that trade but looks tempting to me with tight stops right now.
I'm not entirely sure what that means. Can you repost it in English so some of us can get on the opposite side to whatever you're thinking of?
(I'm sure you know I'm kidding if that sounds very harsh!)
The poorer you are the more likely you are to vote yes, chimes with what I've heard. If the people of the west coast schemes actually turn out to vote it's all over.
Big "If" though
Those Neds are going to be seriously hacked off if Salmond doesn't deliver the milk and honey they're expecting in the event of a Yes vote.
Evening all. Just back from canvassing in my lovely SNP-held constituency on behalf of BT. We did a section of council housing. Quite a few Yes window bills. And yet it proved 50/50. Others did a new private housing development - smallish starter homes. Strongly no.
Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.
Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!
It's just occurred to me that two so-called professional politicians, Dave Cameron and Ed Miliband, are being completely out-classes by two amateurs, the economist Alex Salmond and the stockbroker Nigel Farage.
So what is the point in being a "professional" politician if it means you end up being really quite crap at politics?
In the new FUK we should have a law that SPADS, et al, are specifically EXCLUDED from becoming MPs.
Its up to local parties to stop selecting these people, although a minimum age of 30 to be an MP might help.
I wonder if Scottish independence may become the benchmark for 'democracy doesn't work'?
Now it may be that they vote for independence, and it all works out. Perfect, and great. If not though its a pretty clear example of a democracy making the wrong call.
The truth is out there, but it isn't being encompassed in the debate.
I've been there in 1997 when campaigning for the Tories in Eltham (how long does that seem ago now!), and vividly remember thinking how can the electorate be so daft not to see through Blair. But that line of thinking does no good what so ever. You may intensely dislike what the electorate is telling you, but you have to try and empathise with them and their feelings always, as hard as that seems at times. 'Democracy is the least worst system that we know' - how apt.
The prospect is bound to unnerve some wobblier YES voters - what will it be like AFTER they vote YES, if it's this bad after a few polls?
Not since the rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland have investors moved so fast to protect themselves against short-term ructions in the pound. Rising fear that Scots might vote next week to leave the UK has seen demand for two-week options on a fall in sterling jump by the most since October 2008.
Still working on it, but that open gap that we had between Friday night close, and last night open, up to around GBPUSD 1.6320 looks as though it needs filling, before more weakness. Danger of getting too greedy though on that trade but looks tempting to me with tight stops right now.
I'm not entirely sure what that means. Can you repost it in English so some of us can get on the opposite side to whatever you're thinking of?
(I'm sure you know I'm kidding if that sounds very harsh!)
I hope you all understand that when I guest edit PB, the most stressful time for me is when I have an embargoed poll, I'm scared that I'll accidentally press publish thread, instead of the save to draft button
The prospect is bound to unnerve some wobblier YES voters - what will it be like AFTER they vote YES, if it's this bad after a few polls?
Not since the rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland have investors moved so fast to protect themselves against short-term ructions in the pound. Rising fear that Scots might vote next week to leave the UK has seen demand for two-week options on a fall in sterling jump by the most since October 2008.
Still working on it, but that open gap that we had between Friday night close, and last night open, up to around GBPUSD 1.6320 looks as though it needs filling, before more weakness. Danger of getting too greedy though on that trade but looks tempting to me with tight stops right now.
I'm not entirely sure what that means. Can you repost it in English so some of us can get on the opposite side to whatever you're thinking of?
(I'm sure you know I'm kidding if that sounds very harsh!)
I see, yes that is awkward and would take some very heavy moderating to prevent.
Sorry Mike/TSE
The frustrating thing is, Mike and I don't bet on embargoed polls, until the embargo is lifted, so tonight has been very frustrating watching other people bet and make profits.
In some ways it's not surprising that Labour are very lukewarm towards putting detail on Devomax proposals. Really I would think Labour in their hearts are fundamentally against devolution as it is at present, let alone a more extreme version. And probably the most anti are Scottish Labour politicians.
Labour politicians genuinely care about many of the things which are devolved to Scotland. But they also are ambitious and think there's more to politics than health and education. They want to be players on the world stage.
But devolution forces them to choose. They can either have a say over things which matter to their constituents. Or they can have a say over things which really matter to them as ambitious politicians (unless they can find a seat in England). The more major issues are devolved the more the opportunities for them at Westminster narrow. At best Holyrood is seen as a feeder parliament to Westminster. (the Tories of course don't have the same problem - not a) having any hope of power in Scotland and b) not being as bothered about 'grassroots' issues).
It's no wonder the SNP do so well in Scotland - their A team are based there.
I see, yes that is awkward and would take some very heavy moderating to prevent.
Sorry Mike/TSE
The frustrating thing is, Mike and I don't bet on embargoed polls, until the embargo is lifted, so tonight has been very frustrating watching other people bet and make profits.
It's just occurred to me that two so-called professional politicians, Dave Cameron and Ed Miliband, are being completely out-classes by two amateurs, the economist Alex Salmond and the stockbroker Nigel Farage.
So what is the point in being a "professional" politician if it means you end up being really quite crap at politics?
In the new FUK we should have a law that SPADS, et al, are specifically EXCLUDED from becoming MPs.
I think both Cameron and Ed M are just in the wrong time, very slightly. Our leaders have developed their bland, identikit party automaton stylings, their super cautious approaches, because that is what must have worked (or else their and their rivals would not have gone down that path). Your mavericks retained popularity, but outside of Salmond, other more charismatic or at least more individualistic leaders seemed to regarded with wariness more than anything else.
But that time, at last, seems to have come to an end. All the skills that enabled the current crop to rise through the ranks now count against them. They can make decent speeches, but because they are so properly coached, no matter how sincere they are, they sound like they are, well, trying to sound sincere, as Yes Minister put it so long ago. They can appear incredibly reasonable so as not to frighten the centre ground, but now they cannot inspire at all.
To genuinely succeed now it seems like you will need real character, to take real chances. Our leaders have been trained to be calculating and to avoid any risks, and it might still be enough to squeak out any wins, but it removes the possibility of any passion developing, or being able to be deployed properly when it does develop
Brown takes charge as Cameron backs his plan for "Scottish Home Rule" - The former PM seizes the initiative with a timetable for further devolution to Scotland.
Gordon Brown may not be in office, but he is in power. After the former prime minister, in his own words, seized "the initiative" by announcing a timetable for further devolution to the Scottish parliament in the event of a No vote, Westminster was bemused.
... After tonight, it no longer feels an exaggeration to say that if the Union survives, Brown will be recorded by history as the man who saved it. But that his intervention comes so late, after thousands have already voted by post, and seems so desperate, means it may have little positive effect - and could even harm the Unionist cause.
Evening all. Just back from canvassing in my lovely SNP-held constituency on behalf of BT. We did a section of council housing. Quite a few Yes window bills. And yet it proved 50/50. Others did a new private housing development - smallish starter homes. Strongly no.
Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.
Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!
I hope you all understand that when I guest edit PB, the most stressful time for me is when I have an embargoed poll, I'm scared that I'll accidentally press publish thread, instead of the save to draft button
Almost as stressful as when you post Nighthawks and someone else points out a possible 80s music reference that you missed.
Looking forward to YouGov as a distraction from the referendum
I see, yes that is awkward and would take some very heavy moderating to prevent.
Sorry Mike/TSE
The frustrating thing is, Mike and I don't bet on embargoed polls, until the embargo is lifted, so tonight has been very frustrating watching other people bet and make profits.
Evening all. Just back from canvassing in my lovely SNP-held constituency on behalf of BT. We did a section of council housing. Quite a few Yes window bills. And yet it proved 50/50. Others did a new private housing development - smallish starter homes. Strongly no.
Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.
Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!
More spurious scare stories.
It most certainly isn't. He (the estate agent) has instructions to put a number of properties on the market if it is a Yes.
I see, yes that is awkward and would take some very heavy moderating to prevent.
Sorry Mike/TSE
The frustrating thing is, Mike and I don't bet on embargoed polls, until the embargo is lifted, so tonight has been very frustrating watching other people bet and make profits.
I do feel sorry for you and Mike, but cannot understand why TNS didn't just put a password on that data table until the embargo was over, if they wanted to make clear it was private.
Whoever laid a load of money on Yes on the Betfair exchange has just seen it eaten up (or taken off?). Having moved in to 2.94 earlier after the first tweets re the TNS poll, the price then drifted out to (at least?) 3.25. It's now back to just above 3.00. The matched total has also passed £4.25m in what's now a very active market.
In some ways it's not surprising that Labour are very lukewarm towards putting detail on Devomax proposals. Really I would think Labour in their hearts are fundamentally against devolution as it is at present, let alone a more extreme version. And probably the most anti are Scottish Labour politicians.
Labour politicians genuinely care about many of the things which are devolved to Scotland. But they also are ambitious and think there's more to politics than health and education. They want to be players on the world stage.
But devolution forces them to choose. They can either have a say over things which matter to their constituents. Or they can have a say over things which really matter to them as ambitious politicians (unless they can find a seat in England). The more major issues are devolved the more the opportunities for them at Westminster narrow. At best Holyrood is seen as a feeder parliament to Westminster. (the Tories of course don't have the same problem - not a) having any hope of power in Scotland and b) not being as bothered about 'grassroots' issues).
It's no wonder the SNP do so well in Scotland - their A team are based there.
And the more that's devolved the more egregious the West Lothian question becomes, and the greater English demands will become for a reduction in Scottish MPs sitting in Westminster. Hoisted on petard of their own constitutional making.
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
It's just occurred to me that two so-called professional politicians, Dave Cameron and Ed Miliband, are being completely out-classes by two amateurs, the economist Alex Salmond and the stockbroker Nigel Farage.
So what is the point in being a "professional" politician if it means you end up being really quite crap at politics?
In the new FUK we should have a law that SPADS, et al, are specifically EXCLUDED from becoming MPs.
Its up to local parties to stop selecting these people, although a minimum age of 30 to be an MP might help.
I'm not so sure of that. The really dangerous ones are surely those who have spent years in the heart of a party as a functionary, rising to positions of great advisory power, who can then not only be handed a safe seat but already have networks of power and contacts among the leadership as soon as they are elected in their 30s. I am just speculating, but someone elected in their 20s, while having contacts I have no doubt, seem like they would have had less time to make connections with the powerbrokers in London and are more adept at winning over their local party than the policy makers. Being even younger than usual also might make them more suspicious enemies earlier one maybe?
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
There's also been plenty of pro-Scottish sentiment. It's just that nationalists can't take the banter due to the chip on their shoulder.
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
Yes, I'm sure there's been no bile for years on end in the other direction in other quarters.
That said, the bitterness between the sides over the years is a serious point, as the lack of love or even positive feeling between so many on either side is of course why we are at this point.
Whoever laid a load of money on Yes on the Betfair exchange has just seen it eaten up (or taken off?). Having moved in to 2.94 earlier after the first tweets re the TNS poll, the price then drifted out to (at least?) 3.25. It's now back to just above 3.00. The matched total has also passed £4.25m in what's now a very active market.
That's about 300k today alone, chickenfeed compared to big sporting events I know, but chunky money nonetheless. Maybe Hills man is trying to cover his squeaky bum.
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
You can't come over all magisterial after that repulsively silly Middleton post. Nasty little man, and doing absolutely zilch for the Yes cause.
The poorer you are the more likely you are to vote yes, chimes with what I've heard. If the people of the west coast schemes actually turn out to vote it's all over.
Big "If" though
Those Neds are going to be seriously hacked off if Salmond doesn't deliver the milk and honey they're expecting in the event of a Yes vote.
I doubt the "Neds" have any great expectation of Salmond delivering anything at all. But for once in their lives someone has taken an interest in their opinions so they respond accordingly. Salmond isn't serious about delivering the milk and honey. He'll sell his grandmother if it gets him to 50%
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
If it was anything like today it would have been individuals posting a paradoxical combo of suggested cruel and unusual punishments for ungrateful Scotland leaving whilst ostensibly wanting a No vote. It's rather like telling your wife you'll make sure she is ruined if she ever tries to divorce you.
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
There's also been plenty of pro-Scottish sentiment. It's just that nationalists can't take the banter due to the chip on their shoulder.
"plenty of pro-Scottish sentiment" ???? You must have been reading a different blog.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a five point lead: CON 31%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 16%
How on earth do Labour continue to get these sizable leads?! I know the Tories are a mess and the LDs nowhere, and despite lack of enthusiasm for Ed M the Labour brand remains solid - it's why I've always thought they will win - but even with an overall trend of a decline, their lead still looks daunting for any Tories to overcome.
Well Salmond did have a bad night and he's widely acknowledged as more talented than any politician south of the border, you cannot blame people for being hopeful.
I for one will thank Darling profusely if indeed No can still sneak this one. Whatever happens, his job has been one no-one will have wanted.
If they hold the Devomax PRESS CONFERENCE I've been boring everyone about in Holyrood Palace, by permission of her Majesty, it would be enough of an endorsement to finding a solution without sullying of hands -and it wouldn't be party political, because every party would be invited.
I know I have a tendency to slight bipolarity, but I had a big moodswing tonight, and became quite sanguine at the thought of YES.
I still want NO to win but if it doesn't there will be big upsides for England. So what, we lose our UNSC seat, so we slip down the GDP tables, who cares, it's all willywaving. And all those things are going to happen anyway. Sad but true.
Now, if the Scots say YES it will fuck us all up economically, but at least it will shift England to the right, and it will give us a huge opportunity to have a proper revolution.
Look at Rotherham, how can we tolerate that? We need to sweep away this repulsive, parasitical political class, who never resign, whatever they do, whether left or right (but mainly left), and a YES will be the time to do that. Get rid. Reboot.
Let Cameron resign, and he will, then vote in a Tory-UKIP Coalition to smack it to Labour and reform the nation.
Whoever laid a load of money on Yes on the Betfair exchange has just seen it eaten up (or taken off?). Having moved in to 2.94 earlier after the first tweets re the TNS poll, the price then drifted out to (at least?) 3.25. It's now back to just above 3.00. The matched total has also passed £4.25m in what's now a very active market.
I'm astonshed by how active the market is.
Political betting is going mainstream, for better or worse...
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
There's also been plenty of pro-Scottish sentiment. It's just that nationalists can't take the banter due to the chip on their shoulder.
Ah, the junky, scum, Nazi, racist, piece of dogshit, retard, moron, w!nker banter. How we laughed.
I can't help wondering whether Edmund Burke called this referendum a couple of hundred years ago:
Because half-a-dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field; that of course they are many in number; or that, after all, they are other than the little shrivelled, meagre, hopping, though loud and troublesome insects of the hour.
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
If it was anything like today it would have been individuals posting a paradoxical combo of suggested cruel and unusual punishments for ungrateful Scotland leaving whilst ostensibly wanting a No vote. It's rather like telling your wife you'll make sure she is ruined if she ever tries to divorce you.
Unfortunate, but not really paradoxical - one side does not want a divorce, therefore if pleading does not work threats will follow, along with indignant comments that they'll be fine, but you won't be. To my mind the No side have not tried enough pleading. I doubt it would work, it comes across as a bit pathetic, but I'd sacrifice dignity in this fight quite quickly.
Evening all. Just back from canvassing in my lovely SNP-held constituency on behalf of BT. We did a section of council housing. Quite a few Yes window bills. And yet it proved 50/50. Others did a new private housing development - smallish starter homes. Strongly no.
Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.
Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!
Well done you. I thought I was the only one on here canvassing for BT.
I would certainly agree that window posters is a poor way of measuring support. I have found some very Yes areas in Dundee but most have been pretty close, some surprisingly so.
What I have noticed is that I have found far more who have already voted for No than yes. A lot of this is age of course but a significant part of BT's vote will be in the bag by polling day.
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
There's also been plenty of pro-Scottish sentiment. It's just that nationalists can't take the banter due to the chip on their shoulder.
Ah, the junky, scum, Nazi, racist, piece of dogshit, retard, moron, w!nker banter. How we laughed.
I have seen plenty of that talk from the Yes side. I'm sorry, but I don't see how anyone can claim moral high ground here, and if it becomes a debate of worse offenders, one side may well be worse, but no-one's coming off well.
Interesting take from the Centre for Economics and Business Research on Scotland's ever blacker fiscal black hole. They think the first independent government will need to raise £9 billion in bonds at the start, for which there may be no takers - leading to the IMF being brought in on day 1 - a record for any new country.
They are, if anything, even gloomier about a No vote. At least the financial precipice will be self evident as an independent country. Devomax will be a lot murkier.
Most common word I hear with the BT campaign is "uncertainty"...
No positive case whatsoever.
A truly dismal campaign. That said if you read this thread today you would have seen similar sentiments - no wonder the Scots want to cut loose!
Any historian wanting to jot the collapse of the Union could study PB threads over the last ten years. Vast quantities of anti-Jock tripe day in day out for years on end.
There's also been plenty of pro-Scottish sentiment. It's just that nationalists can't take the banter due to the chip on their shoulder.
Ah, the junky, scum, Nazi, racist, piece of dogshit, retard, moron, w!nker banter. How we laughed.
Are huge movements afoot - in betting and the constitution - based on what?: How reliable are and have been any of these polls which are desperately trying to chart hitherto uncharted waters?
I have seen plenty of that talk from the Yes side. I'm sorry, but I don't see how anyone can claim moral high ground here, and if it becomes a debate of worse offenders, one side may well be worse, but no-one's coming off well.
Almost as one.
I'm not claiming the high ground, though as it happens these aren't terms I tend to use. Just pointing out the hypocrisy of someone who constantly whines about any slagging of his reactionary guff clinging to the term 'banter'.
It's just occurred to me that two so-called professional politicians, Dave Cameron and Ed Miliband, are being completely out-classes by two amateurs, the economist Alex Salmond and the stockbroker Nigel Farage.
So what is the point in being a "professional" politician if it means you end up being really quite crap at politics?
In the new FUK we should have a law that SPADS, et al, are specifically EXCLUDED from becoming MPs.
Its up to local parties to stop selecting these people, although a minimum age of 30 to be an MP might help.
I'm not so sure of that. The really dangerous ones are surely those who have spent years in the heart of a party as a functionary, rising to positions of great advisory power, who can then not only be handed a safe seat but already have networks of power and contacts among the leadership as soon as they are elected in their 30s. I am just speculating, but someone elected in their 20s, while having contacts I have no doubt, seem like they would have had less time to make connections with the powerbrokers in London and are more adept at winning over their local party than the policy makers. Being even younger than usual also might make them more suspicious enemies earlier one maybe?
Exactly. I would much rather have a reasonable number of 20-something MPs having to keep touch with their constituents than those same people with those same ambitions marking time in think-tanks or as advisors.
That said, the problem is not the age of MPs; it's their uniformity.
Borrowing powers in devo-max? And if those limits are exceeded? Devo-max with borrowing is basically a half baked currency union. Do we really think that a Scottish govt - inevitably left wing since borrowing allows it to give away free money - which over borrows will take the measures necessary to cut spending? Borrowing will still be UK wide borrowing - just that Scottish borrowing will be beyond control - but still UK ie English responsibility.
Evening all. Just back from canvassing in my lovely SNP-held constituency on behalf of BT. We did a section of council housing. Quite a few Yes window bills. And yet it proved 50/50. Others did a new private housing development - smallish starter homes. Strongly no.
Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.
Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!
Well done you. I thought I was the only one on here canvassing for BT.
I would certainly agree that window posters is a poor way of measuring support. I have found some very Yes areas in Dundee but most have been pretty close, some surprisingly so.
What I have noticed is that I have found far more who have already voted for No than yes. A lot of this is age of course but a significant part of BT's vote will be in the bag by polling day.
I'm not sure how to express this. BUT my feeling is that the strength of the No vote in some of these estates is an expression of the No voters opinions of the people who are sticking Yes stickers in their windows. I'll leave you to guess which ones have the smart cared-for gardens and those that don't. It's not universal but, frankly, there is an element of it. Sorry - not PC, but there you go.
If they hold the Devomax PRESS CONFERENCE I've been boring everyone about in Holyrood Palace, by permission of her Majesty, it would be enough of an endorsement to finding a solution without sullying of hands -and it wouldn't be party political, because every party would be invited.
Never going to happen. Any attempt to do anything like that will be counter productive. I mean the Telegraph, they allow that mainiac Cochrane to write about Scotland dont they.
Comments
http://tns-bmrb.co.uk/uploads/files/TNSUK_SOM2014Sep9_DataTables.pdf
But haven't TNS themselves published the data tables?
Look on their homepage, it isn't viewable on their news or polls section
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news
- The former PM seizes the initiative with a timetable for further devolution to Scotland.
Gordon Brown may not be in office, but he is in power. After the former prime minister, in his own words, seized "the initiative" by announcing a timetable for further devolution to the Scottish parliament in the event of a No vote, Westminster was bemused.
... After tonight, it no longer feels an exaggeration to say that if the Union survives, Brown will be recorded by history as the man who saved it. But that his intervention comes so late, after thousands have already voted by post, and seems so desperate, means it may have little positive effect - and could even harm the Unionist cause.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/brown-takes-charge-cameron-backs-his-plan-scottish-home-rule
A win/win situation?
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=tns+bmrb+scotland+poll
(3rd item)
Very, very good qualifying result for Eng.
Farage says NO to any pact with Tories.
Sorry Mike/TSE
Am I showing me age.....?
I'm not entirely sure what that means. Can you repost it in English so some of us can get on the opposite side to whatever you're thinking of?
(I'm sure you know I'm kidding if that sounds very harsh!)
Born Manchester.
Having felt pretty down, now feel rather more sanguine, notwithstanding the polls.
Interesting feedback from an estate agent - lots of houses will be hitting the market if Scotland votes Yes. Prepare for a crash in the housing market north of Hadrian's Wall!
(I'm sure you know I'm kidding if that sounds very harsh!)
Trading language is lost on you Neil!
It was the absence of waves that threw me!
Labour politicians genuinely care about many of the things which are devolved to Scotland. But they also are ambitious and think there's more to politics than health and education. They want to be players on the world stage.
But devolution forces them to choose. They can either have a say over things which matter to their constituents. Or they can have a say over things which really matter to them as ambitious politicians (unless they can find a seat in England). The more major issues are devolved the more the opportunities for them at Westminster narrow. At best Holyrood is seen as a feeder parliament to Westminster. (the Tories of course don't have the same problem - not a) having any hope of power in Scotland and b) not being as bothered about 'grassroots' issues).
It's no wonder the SNP do so well in Scotland - their A team are based there.
O/T
"I'm going for England to defeat Switzerland this evening by a two goal margin.
Unlikely I know, but decent odds of 9/1 from SkyBet."
Bow before me, I say bow before me.
But that time, at last, seems to have come to an end. All the skills that enabled the current crop to rise through the ranks now count against them. They can make decent speeches, but because they are so properly coached, no matter how sincere they are, they sound like they are, well, trying to sound sincere, as Yes Minister put it so long ago. They can appear incredibly reasonable so as not to frighten the centre ground, but now they cannot inspire at all.
To genuinely succeed now it seems like you will need real character, to take real chances. Our leaders have been trained to be calculating and to avoid any risks, and it might still be enough to squeak out any wins, but it removes the possibility of any passion developing, or being able to be deployed properly when it does develop Lack of options?
Looking forward to YouGov as a distraction from the referendum
'Darling crushed Salmond. After he's saved the Union, could he save the Labour Party? '
http://tinyurl.com/o53us5b
Tuesday's Telegraph front page - "The Queen is urged to intervene"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxCfR38IgAAUNAX.jpg
Abertay Uni freshers took part in 2 hour debate. Overwhelming victory for Yes
I do feel sorry for you and Mike, but cannot understand why TNS didn't just put a password on that data table until the embargo was over, if they wanted to make clear it was private.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a five point lead: CON 31%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 16%
That said, the bitterness between the sides over the years is a serious point, as the lack of love or even positive feeling between so many on either side is of course why we are at this point.
EICIPM less than 8 months to go
I for one will thank Darling profusely if indeed No can still sneak this one. Whatever happens, his job has been one no-one will have wanted.
Political betting is going mainstream, for better or worse...
Because half-a-dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field; that of course they are many in number; or that, after all, they are other than the little shrivelled, meagre, hopping, though loud and troublesome insects of the hour.
Hope he's right.
Scotland Decides music
I would certainly agree that window posters is a poor way of measuring support. I have found some very Yes areas in Dundee but most have been pretty close, some surprisingly so.
What I have noticed is that I have found far more who have already voted for No than yes. A lot of this is age of course but a significant part of BT's vote will be in the bag by polling day.
They are, if anything, even gloomier about a No vote. At least the financial precipice will be self evident as an independent country. Devomax will be a lot murkier.
http://www.cebr.com/reports/scottish-government-deficit-assessment/
I'm not claiming the high ground, though as it happens these aren't terms I tend to use. Just pointing out the hypocrisy of someone who constantly whines about any slagging of his reactionary guff clinging to the term 'banter'.
That said, the problem is not the age of MPs; it's their uniformity.