There wont be any negotiation, Spain and Italy will force the EU to be very hostile towards scotland. Together with england they will do everything they can to cutoff scotland from the rest of the world. Be it trade, be it finance, be it movement of people, you name it, they'll ban it.
Spain certainly won't. They are very keen on fish.
Both sides have been talking arrant nonsense on the question of the EU. Of course Salmond's nonsense was the more ridiculous of the two - the idea that Scotland would suddenly automatically become a member of the EU was completely laughable. On the other side, the suggestion that Scotland would be locked out of access to EU markets is, in practice, scarcely less silly.
The question is, not whether an independent Scotland could eventually become a full EU member, but on what terms and in what timescale. You are right that there is a political issue in respect of Spain in particular, and that is likely to delay things, possibly for some years. But in the meantime there would certainly be some interim agreement to allow trade (and fishing!) to continue with as little disruption as possible.
Spain wont touch scotland even with a fishing pole, due to one word "Catalonia". If scotland gets in the EU or even if it survives as a state it will be a huge precedent for the dissolution of Spain and Italy.
The very existence of Spain and Italy depends on scotland failing as an independent country.
Interesting to compare the experiences of Ireland. I believe John Bruton has said that from 1922 to 1978 interest rates were determined in London without any Irish input, and they went up and down with the fortunes of whatever suited the British economy as decided by people in Britain. Ireland used sterling from 1922 to 1927, but then started running its own currency at 1:1 parity with Sterling. Neither made any difference to that fundamental point.
That's what a currency union without any political union means.
Isnt the point that the Free State and successor states never had a currency union with the UK? So that's not what a currency union means.
(Of course Ireland went from being in the Sterling sphere to the DM sphere in 1978 and rejecting a currency union could well see Scotland making a similar journey in the future. It's hard to see how that would benefit the rest of the UK.)
Nope. There was a currency union (sterling) from '22 to '27. From then on until 1978 every Irish pound was backed by a deposit in the BoE in sterling or of British government bonds.
No - the Free State used Sterling in the early years. That was not a currency union.
Then the Free State fixed it's exchange rate to Sterling. Again, not a currency union.
You seem to be missing the point.
Was the point that you dont know what a currency union is?
The point is that monetary policy was determined in London for decades without any representation or input from Eire, which is the substance of the debate occurring over Scottish independence right now. I posted a citation from a former Taoiseach making this precise point.
But you know this. It's not a debate you wish to engage with, so you're arguing about semantics instead.
I met someone this morning who told me that as Scotland were not likely to be accepted immediately (if at all) into the EU it would be compulsory according to EU rules to have a closed border between Scotland and England.
As I'm sure this will have been examined on these threads ad nauseam can someone answer this smart arse conundrum?
Not true. pr hand....
The EU would have every interest to kick an independent scotland in its balls, lest some others get ideas (catalonia, venice ect).
The above is just a horrible response from Nick, someone who I usually have a lot of time for. As a leftie I am furious that Labour has been so complacent, absolutely disgusted at the lies being peddled by the SNP and flabbergasted at the credulous self-indulgence of the yes supporting leftie commentariat in Scotland, whose naïve posturing about the rebirth of social democracy is aiding nationalists create a new international border as a precursor to years of terrible austerity for the Scottish people and a good deal of worry down south too. It's self-harming nihilism the likes of which I think is unprecedented in recent British (world?) history. Nick you should be fuming. Labour has played a central part in letting down the Scottish and British people, so leading to this forthcoming separation that will only cause pain for all involved. A consolation, I guess, is that the divorce will force the left in England and Wales to take a long, hard look at itself and finally to engage with this century. But the break-up of the UK is not a price worth paying for that.
You
Sadly, I fear that you are right. But Nick should care as a leftie, even if he does not give a monkeys about the UK. Millions of people are about to have their standards of living severely cut and all on the back of nationalist snake oil and lies. He should be absolutely fuming and sick to the pit of his guts.
Yes, it's his economic illiteracy that bewilders me. Even if you can accept his non-patriotic shrug at the end of Britain (which I find repellent, but it is not intrinsically immoral) he should surely be alive to the mortal economic dangers of a YES vote. Everyone in Britain will suffer, especially - as ever - the poor. As a lefty that should have him tearing his hair out.
Yet not.
Like all true Leftie denizens he wouldn't deign to rub shoulders with the proles. They are only useful as something to bash the Tories with.
Yes, it's his economic illiteracy that bewilders me. Even if you can accept his non-patriotic shrug at the end of Britain (which I find repellent, but it is not intrinsically immoral) he should surely be alive to the mortal economic dangers of a YES vote. Everyone in Britain will suffer, especially - as ever - the poor. As a lefty that should have him tearing his hair out.
Yet not.
I'm not actually that concerned about the economic illiteracy of Nick. Considering the economic illiteracy of Alec Salmond (who has a degree in economics and worked within it until entering politics)..
I met someone this morning who told me that as Scotland were not likely to be accepted immediately (if at all) into the EU it would be compulsory according to EU rules to have a closed border between Scotland and England.
As I'm sure this will have been examined on these threads ad nauseam can someone answer this smart arse conundrum?
Not true. panic mode. But I can live with either a Yes or a No. I'm mildly concerned, so are my leftie friends, and clearly it's good that the party is trying to persuade supporters to vote no. But it's not a potential calamity - that's just the media selling papers with their usual arm-waving. It's a matter for the Scots - we'd be sorry to lose them, both as Brits and as lefties, but it's really up to them. And if you talked to the average English voter, you'd find that's I suspect a fudge could be reached. Getting out of VAT on food and the other UK exemptions on the other hand....
The EU would have every interest to kick an independent scotland in its balls, lest some others get ideas (catalonia, venice ect).
It will come down to negotiation - a few of which the Scots may get (non-Shengen may be among them), many which it will not - the UK rebate and exemptions (eg VAT on food) it is unlikely to.
The FUK will also suffer, of course.
Actually I'm beginning to think it will not. As reality bites in the Jockanese Kingdom of Bankruptopia there will be a flight of capital, jobs, investment and wealthier individuals to the south. There's a real risk IMHO that the horror of what they just did could see Scotland getting hollowed out and England inadvertently getting the cream. It would be a tragedy of epic propotions for Scotland but if this happens and iScot goes all Venezuela while England sucks all the wealth out then who should the newly impoverished Scots look to for blame or succour? I'm sure it will somehow end being Maggie's fault. Or Edward Longshanks'.
We may end up with a tartan Albania for a neighbour.
Some enterprising 'yes' campaigner should copy and paste some of the more entertaining posts from today's thread and turn it into campaign material.
We're currently trying to keep Katie Hopkins as our benchmark of xenophobic idiocy at the mo. Let's not over egg the pudding.
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
Belgium is about 20x larger in population than Luxembourg. That being said the union lasted (and arguably still does via the Euro) from the 1920s. Note, however, although Belgian money in Lux was happily accepted, this was not the case the other way round.
If the Scots end up getting done over by Brussels and consequently must pay 20% VAT on their pies, then I suspect that would even break Alex Salmond's desire for independence.
Hadrian's Wall would be rebuilt with a Greggs every 100 yards.....
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
As a union doesn't make sence for England only an idiot would accept it post Yes vote.
Surely whether it makes sense or not no longer matters. The Finance ministers and shadows of two major parties have said they won't allow it. Can you imagine the total loss of face to Ed Balls and Osborne if they go back on their word. Neither of these men are known for their humility :-)
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
As a union doesn't make sence for England only an idiot would accept it post Yes vote.
Surely whether it makes sense or not no longer matters. The Finance ministers and shadows of two major parties have said they won't allow it. Can you imagine the total loss of face to Ed Balls and Osborne if they go back on their word. Neither of these men are known for their humility :-)
But (almost) everyone here seems to say Mr O would have to go post a Yes vote, and that Labour won't be elected.
@tombradby: Exclusive; Westminster offer to Scotland will be the power to raise income tax to increase welfare spending.
@tombradby: Westminster will set a minimum welfare spend, Scotland will have the power to tax more and spend more to, say, axe the so-called bedroom tax
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
As a union doesn't make sence for England only an idiot would accept it post Yes vote.
Surely whether it makes sense or not no longer matters. The Finance ministers and shadows of two major parties have said they won't allow it. Can you imagine the total loss of face to Ed Balls and Osborne if they go back on their word. Neither of these men are known for their humility :-)
But (almost) everyone here seems to say Mr O would have to go post a Yes vote, and that Labour won't be elected.
Puzzled!
Can't see Mr O going if 'Yes'. Cameron will resist like a limpet, but he'll have to go. Doesn't mean O goes - he could even become leader, although personally I think Hague will suddenly find politics interesting again and step into the breach. Stability in the markets will be the story...keep a steady hand etc etc.
@tombradby: Exclusive; Westminster offer to Scotland will be the power to raise income tax to increase welfare spending.
@tombradby: Westminster will set a minimum welfare spend, Scotland will have the power to tax more and spend more to, say, axe the so-called bedroom tax
That has Osborne's fingerprints all over it... it's a good move.
@tombradby: Exclusive; Westminster offer to Scotland will be the power to raise income tax to increase welfare spending.
@tombradby: Westminster will set a minimum welfare spend, Scotland will have the power to tax more and spend more to, say, axe the so-called bedroom tax
Errh? The Scots can already raise income tax levels, by as much as 3p I believe.
Mind you, this is the main parties admitting that 'Devo-Max' should have been on the ballot.
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
As a union doesn't make sence for England only an idiot would accept it post Yes vote.
Surely whether it makes sense or not no longer matters. The Finance ministers and shadows of two major parties have said they won't allow it. Can you imagine the total loss of face to Ed Balls and Osborne if they go back on their word. Neither of these men are known for their humility :-)
But (almost) everyone here seems to say Mr O would have to go post a Yes vote, and that Labour won't be elected.
Puzzled!
Stability in the markets will be the story...keep a steady hand etc etc.
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
As a union doesn't make sence for England only an idiot would accept it post Yes vote.
Surely whether it makes sense or not no longer matters. The Finance ministers and shadows of two major parties have said they won't allow it. Can you imagine the total loss of face to Ed Balls and Osborne if they go back on their word. Neither of these men are known for their humility :-)
But (almost) everyone here seems to say Mr O would have to go post a Yes vote, and that Labour won't be elected.
Puzzled!
Can't see Mr O going if 'Yes'. Cameron will resist like a limpet, but he'll have to go. Doesn't mean O goes - he could even become leader, although personally I think Hague will suddenly find politics interesting again and step into the breach. Stability in the markets will be the story...keep a steady hand etc etc.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 1m Ashcroft National Poll, 5-7 September: CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Back to the drawing board for Dave & Co.
Peter, nothing is changing, nor will it until after IndyRef. Even then the conferences will confuse things as usual, so we need to wait until late October before looking for significant movement (or lack thereof). You keep micro-analysing noise - some polls are better for the Tories, some worse, but overall there's not much movement.
The question is, not whether an independent Scotland could eventually become a full EU member, but on what terms and in what timescale.
True - and then there is the question of whether they could actually meet those terms.
One of the terms would be that they protect bank account deposits to the tune of the first €100,000 (£85000). That's hard to do if you haven't got a central bank or lender of last resort, and if the Herfindahl index of your retail banking system is over 3000, with two banks accounting for about 70% of it. That said, both RBS and Lloyds would move south. But rUK isn't going to protect Scottish accounts with rUK-registered banks. (Why should it?)
Lloyds only registered in Scotland after being broken up on EU orders, because it was so appallingly managed. Moving back south might come at great cost. It's not something they could just push a button to do.
I'm sorry, but this is a bullshit story.
In the event of independence, RBS, HBOS, etc., would almost certainly become rUK PLCs, as they have far, far more business in rUK than in Scotland. HBoS is the most exposed, but even there only 8% of its loans are in Scotland. For RBS, it's less than 5%.
RBS, HBoS would set up Scottish subsidiaries that would manage their Scottish operations and loans - and it would only be these that the Scottish government would have to guarantee. The quantity of these would be quite modest, and would be well within the ability of the Scottish government to meet.
@iainmartin1: The Cameron would have to resign after a Yes vote thing falls apart when you ask who takes over. Miliband? Osborne? Who then?
There would be a Tory party leadership election surely? Not up-to-speed with Tory rule book, but possible this election would only involve MPs and not whole party. The winner becomes PM. Clegg could run the country during the two or three weeks this takes. What a jolly time that will be...
@tombradby: Exclusive; Westminster offer to Scotland will be the power to raise income tax to increase welfare spending.
@tombradby: Westminster will set a minimum welfare spend, Scotland will have the power to tax more and spend more to, say, axe the so-called bedroom tax
Setting a minimum welfare spend could prove very foolhardy. What happens after the next General Election when whoever wins has to take the knife out big time to cut that pesky £100 Billion per annum deficit ....... would the Scots simply be exempted from such cuts?
Afternoon troops. Been driving down the A9 this morning from Easter Ross to sunny Comrie near Crieff. Reckon the YES posters beat the NO posters 5:1 on roadside sites. Almost all the NO posters I saw were in the Crieff area which is as Tory as one can get in Perthshire these days.
Easterross, am I correct that you have consistently predicted a YES vote?
@tombradby: Exclusive; Westminster offer to Scotland will be the power to raise income tax to increase welfare spending.
@tombradby: Westminster will set a minimum welfare spend, Scotland will have the power to tax more and spend more to, say, axe the so-called bedroom tax
Hmm...this means that after a NO then Scotland would for all time be more lefty than the UK as a whole. I object. What if a future Tory Scotland felt tax and spend was too high across the whole of a Labour governed UK? Scotland should have the right to REDUCE tax / spend unilaterally as well. This is a one way ratchet to lefty hell. In the circumstances of today it seems sensible(ish). But if you think about it for more than 5 minutes it truly sucks.
Osborne should offer a fully Federal UK where a bare minimium (a seriously BARE minimum) of federal tax was passed to England, Scotland, Wales and NI for their public sectors and anything else was taxed and spent separately by the 4.
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
As a union doesn't make sence for England only an idiot would accept it post Yes vote.
Surely whether it makes sense or not no longer matters. The Finance ministers and shadows of two major parties have said they won't allow it. Can you imagine the total loss of face to Ed Balls and Osborne if they go back on their word. Neither of these men are known for their humility :-)
But (almost) everyone here seems to say Mr O would have to go post a Yes vote, and that Labour won't be elected.
Puzzled!
Stability in the markets will be the story...keep a steady hand etc etc.
How does that square with Cameron going?
Keep building your meme...
It doesn't help the markets for Cameron to go, but he has no choice IMHO. Losing the Finance minister at same time would make things far worse.
Mr. Dodges, I must say that is a silly answer. We don't run into much trouble trading with any other nation due to that reason and I cannot see the British taxpayer wanting to be lender of last resort to the entire Scottish financial sector just to avoid the terrible peril of occasionally changing money.
The next Scottish polls are being eagerly awaited to see if they will confirm the shift to yes recorded in the YouGov one for the Sunday Times, or if they will show it was just a blip.
However, the Guardian’s Ewen MacAskill has been told there is little relief on the horizon for Alistair Darling and the no campaign: that the next poll to be published on Tuesday will confirm the trend.
The most astonishing thing from the Ashcroft poll is again the lack of solidity of the small LD vote. Just 32% of that 8% is definite that it will vote LD. The LD's have yet to reach a bottom.
Has anyone supposed that Cameron might just prefer to resign - like after four and a half years he's had enough - and a Yes vote would present a perfect opportunity for him to do without fuss yet seemingly with honour?
Boring James Milner @BoringMilner · Jun 24 Roy said You're starting today. I said Me? He said Yes. I said Starting? He said Yes. I said In the match? He said Yes. I said Ok Roy.
Has anyone supposed that Cameron might just prefer to resign - like after four and a half years he's had enough - and a Yes vote would present a perfect opportunity for him to do without fuss yet seemingly with honour?
It would not be honourable to hand the reins to Clegg just as the markets were tumbling...
Incidentally, the Ashcroft poll is effectively meaningless (likewise all national polls until the referendum is sorted). If Scotland leaves it'll change the political atmosphere dramatically.
Refusing a union would lead to years in the courts trying to resolve assets and liabilities and would lead to even greater a mess than we would already have under a Yes. A union would clearly be the sensible approach.
Boring James Milner @BoringMilner · Jun 24 Roy said You're starting today. I said Me? He said Yes. I said Starting? He said Yes. I said In the match? He said Yes. I said Ok Roy.
We can use him to predict the results of the general election on election night.
"Boring James Milner @BoringMilner · Aug 10 It sounded really windy outside so I went out to see & it was really windy, then I remembered the weather forecast said It would be windy"
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Has anyone supposed that Cameron might just prefer to resign - like after four and a half years he's had enough - and a Yes vote would present a perfect opportunity for him to do without fuss yet seemingly with honour?
It would not be honourable to hand the reins to Clegg just as the markets were tumbling...
Although it might make Speedy wet his pants in excitement.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Yet politicalbetting.com is full of posters saying Cameron is an electoral disaster.
Hell, even Osborne gets a higher rating than any of the other politicians, apart from Cameron, named in that list.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 1m Ashcroft National Poll, 5-7 September: CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Back to the drawing board for Dave & Co.
Peter, nothing is changing, nor will it until after IndyRef. Even then the conferences will confuse things as usual, so we need to wait until late October before looking for significant movement (or lack thereof). You keep micro-analysing noise - some polls are better for the Tories, some worse, but overall there's not much movement.
Richard - with due respect - if one isn't allowed to comment on polls, or identify trends therefrom, then what's the point in commissioning them at vast expense in the first instance?
Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 18%, Green 6%
Sep 08, 2014 03:59 pm
It looks a little bit like UKIP are benefiting from current travails there. Whether that's due to the prospect of YES, or Clacton effect, or neither (and it's just statistical noise) remains to be seen.
Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 18%, Green 6%
Sep 08, 2014 03:59 pm
It looks a little bit like UKIP are benefiting from current travails there. Whether that's due to the prospect of YES, or Clacton effect, or neither (and it's just statistical noise) remains to be seen.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Yet politicalbetting.com is full of posters saying Cameron is an electoral disaster.
Hell, even Osborne gets a higher rating than any of the other politicians, apart from Cameron, named in that list.
Hence, the eagerness to develop a meme that he must resign in the event of a 'Yes'.
Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 18%, Green 6%
Sep 08, 2014 03:59 pm
It looks a little bit like UKIP are benefiting from current travails there. Whether that's due to the prospect of YES, or Clacton effect, or neither (and it's just statistical noise) remains to be seen.
The Sunil on Sunday's weekly ELBOWs have shown an increase in UKIP of 1.6% between the week ending 17th Aug and 7th Sep, and a decrease in LibDems of 1.5%.
Richard - with due respect - if one isn't allowed to comment on polls, or identify trends therefrom, then what's the point in commissioning them at vast expense in the first instance?
I'm all in favour of analysing them, but you need to step back a bit more to see the trend, and remember that even if nothing is changing, you can easily expect a 2 or 3 point movement from the mean in a given pollster's numbers for either of the main parties, purely on random statistical noise.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Yet politicalbetting.com is full of posters saying Cameron is an electoral disaster.
Hell, even Osborne gets a higher rating than any of the other politicians, apart from Cameron, named in that list.
Quite funny to see the stereotypes being backed up... Lib Dems don't really mind anyone except UKIP & Farage who they hate while UKIP hate everyone except UKIP & Farage who they love
Kippers the most passionate about their party and leader by a mile.. get on UKIP over LD in the match bet I say.. 8/11 still value
If this poll shows another YES lead, as may be the case, I am calling it for YES.
What convinces me is the evidence adduced today by TUD, much as it grieves me. The more people learn about Indy the more they tend to YES. In which case almost nothing can be done, though I urge people to try!
I suspect this is because they hear seductive lies from YES and the boring facts from NO, but nonetheless the trend is not our friend. Go out there and shout about indy, and the people think, hey, I fancy a change. Shut up and do nothing and they will be persuaded by the Nats.
It is nearly time to say Adieu, and to shift our savings. I'm into Pacific equities ex Japan.
'It's 1940, the Germans are in Calais, and SeanT flees to America, with a battered suitcase full of heavily soiled trousers, and gold sovereigns...'
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Yet politicalbetting.com is full of posters saying Cameron is an electoral disaster.
Hell, even Osborne gets a higher rating than any of the other politicians, apart from Cameron, named in that list.
And yet the Tories, in this Achcroft poll, are polling sub-Major at GE 1997 and sub-Brown at GE 2010.
If this poll shows another YES lead, as may be the case, I am calling it for YES.
What convinces me is the evidence adduced today by TUD, much as it grieves me. The more people learn about Indy the more they tend to YES. In which case almost nothing can be done, though I urge people to try!
I suspect this is because they hear seductive lies from YES and the boring facts from NO, but nonetheless the trend is not our friend. Go out there and shout about indy, and the people think, hey, I fancy a change. Shut up and do nothing and they will be persuaded by the Nats.
It is nearly time to say Adieu, and to shift our savings. I'm into Pacific equities ex Japan.
My policy - which has yet to fail me - is to look at what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is forecasting, and do the opposite.
If this poll shows another YES lead, as may be the case, I am calling it for YES.
What convinces me is the evidence adduced today by TUD, much as it grieves me. The more people learn about Indy the more they tend to YES. In which case almost nothing can be done, though I urge people to try!
I suspect this is because they hear seductive lies from YES and the boring facts from NO, but nonetheless the trend is not our friend. Go out there and shout about indy, and the people think, hey, I fancy a change. Shut up and do nothing and they will be persuaded by the Nats.
It is nearly time to say Adieu, and to shift our savings. I'm into Pacific equities ex Japan.
'It's 1939, the Germans are in Calais, and SeanT flees to America, with a battered suitcase full of heavily soiled trousers, and gold sovereigns...'
I'd be suprised if the next poll didn't have Yes going up, after all they were on 35% on the last one! The question is will Yes have a lead, or how small will the No lead be?
@tombradby: Exclusive; Westminster offer to Scotland will be the power to raise income tax to increase welfare spending.
@tombradby: Westminster will set a minimum welfare spend, Scotland will have the power to tax more and spend more to, say, axe the so-called bedroom tax
Hmm...this means that after a NO then Scotland would for all time be more lefty than the UK as a whole. I object. What if a future Tory Scotland felt tax and spend was too high across the whole of a Labour governed UK? Scotland should have the right to REDUCE tax / spend unilaterally as well. This is a one way ratchet to lefty hell. In the circumstances of today it seems sensible(ish). But if you think about it for more than 5 minutes it truly sucks.
Osborne should offer a fully Federal UK where a bare minimium (a seriously BARE minimum) of federal tax was passed to England, Scotland, Wales and NI for their public sectors and anything else was taxed and spent separately by the 4.
I want a FUK!
You do know that the Labour proposal for devo-a wee-bittie is rather like that ratchet, Scotland can only increase tax not reduce it compared to rUK?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Yet politicalbetting.com is full of posters saying Cameron is an electoral disaster.
Hell, even Osborne gets a higher rating than any of the other politicians, apart from Cameron, named in that list.
This government seems to be good at the economics and crap at the politics.
Cameron and his team have lost Ashcroft, Murdoch, several of his key donors, over half the voluntary party and some of his earliest parliamentary supporters.
He still seems baffled as to why - it's always the fault of the ex-supporters, never him, and the only retort seems to be 'yeah, but we're better at The Money than Labour would be'
Down thread there is a tweet suggesting that this poll will reflect the trend.
That doesn't meant that it will show a Yes but it does suggest that it might.
I am starting to believe that this disaster will happen.
Though if I were Scots I would probably vote Yes - just too romantic an idea to be part of a generation that started its own country, regardless of the massive risks.
It's really pointless to talk about the general election and "UKIP prospects" even as Scotland seems to be seceding. It's like discussing next year's Test at Lords as a nuclear missile heads for St John's Wood.
What happened to the famous British stiff upper lip.
You acting all ponceyboots Gaylord make me ashamed to be British.
Sack up you Jessie.
he which hath no stomach to this fight, Let him depart; his passport shall be made, And crowns for convoy put into his purse; We would not die in that man's company That fears his fellowship to die with us.
It's really pointless to talk about the general election and "UKIP prospects" even as Scotland seems to be seceding. It's like discussing next year's Test at Lords as a nuclear missile heads for St John's Wood.
What happened to the famous British stiff upper lip.
You acting all ponceyboots Gaylord make me ashamed to be British.
Sack up you Jessie.
he which hath no stomach to this fight, Let him depart; his passport shall be made, And crowns for convoy put into his purse; We would not die in that man's company That fears his fellowship to die with us.
Comments
If scotland gets in the EU or even if it survives as a state it will be a huge precedent for the dissolution of Spain and Italy.
The very existence of Spain and Italy depends on scotland failing as an independent country.
But you know this. It's not a debate you wish to engage with, so you're arguing about semantics instead.
I asked Tom Clark of the Guardian if we were getting it today and he said
Tom Clark @guardian_clark 1m
@TSEofPB def not today – and not this week at all
Know your history. Luxembourg had a currency union with Belgium yet was still independent.
As a union makes sense for England only an idiot would refuse it post a Yes vote.
It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.
And I am a No supporter.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-orangemen-to-march-in-edinburgh-ahead-of-referendum-1.1921768
Hadrian's Wall would be rebuilt with a Greggs every 100 yards.....
Puzzled!
Ashcroft National Poll, 5-7 September: CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
@tombradby: Westminster will set a minimum welfare spend, Scotland will have the power to tax more and spend more to, say, axe the so-called bedroom tax
Mr. Easterross, has your postal vote arrived yet?
Mr. Dodges, why should England et al. want a currency union with Scotland?
Edit apologies for marking your comment as Off-topic, went for the reply button and hit off topic, #fatfingers
Mind you, this is the main parties admitting that 'Devo-Max' should have been on the ballot.
Keep building your meme...
To save on faffing around with cross border trade. Waste of time and effort.
Labour need to be 32 points ahead at this stage.
In the event of independence, RBS, HBOS, etc., would almost certainly become rUK PLCs, as they have far, far more business in rUK than in Scotland. HBoS is the most exposed, but even there only 8% of its loans are in Scotland. For RBS, it's less than 5%.
RBS, HBoS would set up Scottish subsidiaries that would manage their Scottish operations and loans - and it would only be these that the Scottish government would have to guarantee. The quantity of these would be quite modest, and would be well within the ability of the Scottish government to meet.
Sep 08, 2014 03:59 pm
Little relief on the horizon for the 'No' side in new Scotland #indyref polling due out
http://bit.ly/WFYCoz via @ewenmacaskill
Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave!
Ed is Crap is PM
Osborne should offer a fully Federal UK where a bare minimium (a seriously BARE minimum) of federal tax was passed to England, Scotland, Wales and NI for their public sectors and anything else was taxed and spent separately by the 4.
I want a FUK!
'3.53pm BST
The next Scottish polls are being eagerly awaited to see if they will confirm the shift to yes recorded in the YouGov one for the Sunday Times, or if they will show it was just a blip.
However, the Guardian’s Ewen MacAskill has been told there is little relief on the horizon for Alistair Darling and the no campaign: that the next poll to be published on Tuesday will confirm the trend.
How will the markets react to that?'
http://tinyurl.com/m7b9zqd
The LD's have yet to reach a bottom.
EICIPM
8 Months today methinks to go
Boring James Milner @BoringMilner · Jun 24
Roy said You're starting today. I said Me? He said Yes. I said Starting? He said Yes. I said In the match? He said Yes. I said Ok Roy.
Refusing a union would lead to years in the courts trying to resolve assets and liabilities and would lead to even greater a mess than we would already have under a Yes. A union would clearly be the sensible approach.
"Boring James Milner @BoringMilner · Aug 10
It sounded really windy outside so I went out to see & it was really windy, then I remembered the weather forecast said It would be windy"
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 19m
Party and leader ratings from the Ashcroft National Poll. DC remains only leader with a higher score than his party: pic.twitter.com/WUmDa5Jpj0
Sep 08, 2014 03:59 pm
Lose the Union and its all over for him.
Next month is a crucial year for him
Lose Clacton and its anarchy in whats left of the UK (OK i exaggerate but the Tories will implode into righty right wingness)
Next year is a crucial year for Dave
Lose GE 2015 and its all over for him.
I predict 2 of 3 at least are extremely likely. The Union is more finely balanced.
Hell, even Osborne gets a higher rating than any of the other politicians, apart from Cameron, named in that list.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Robertson,_Baron_Robertson_of_Port_Ellen#Quote_on_devolution
Is Eck going in the event of a 'No'?
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/09/05/opinion/090514krugman1/090514krugman1-blog480.png
Kippers the most passionate about their party and leader by a mile.. get on UKIP over LD in the match bet I say.. 8/11 still value
Is all Ed's fault.
@IGcom: Polls show Scotland #indyref split 50:50, but IG binary trade suggests otherwise. @AMcCaig_IG explains http://t.co/OACJm393wC
Cameron and his team have lost Ashcroft, Murdoch, several of his key donors, over half the voluntary party and some of his earliest parliamentary supporters.
He still seems baffled as to why - it's always the fault of the ex-supporters, never him, and the only retort seems to be 'yeah, but we're better at The Money than Labour would be'
That's not enough.
If the Scots vote NO, and stay in the UK, that almost guarantees that the Tories won't be the largest party at the GE - Dave steps down as PM.
If the Scots vote YES, and Scotland leaves the UK, Dave resigns much earlier!
Down thread there is a tweet suggesting that this poll will reflect the trend.
That doesn't meant that it will show a Yes but it does suggest that it might.
I am starting to believe that this disaster will happen.
Though if I were Scots I would probably vote Yes - just too romantic an idea to be part of a generation that started its own country, regardless of the massive risks.
You acting all ponceyboots Gaylord make me ashamed to be British.
Sack up you Jessie.
he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
"Paul Nuttall @paulnuttallukip · 5h
Now the EU is targeting our toast! http://ukipnw.org.uk/hands-off-our-toast/ … #ukip @UKIP "