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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll
One of the features of the referendum polling is that so much of it has been Online. Survation, Panelbase and, of course, YouGov poll in this way. In addition the ICM polls that we see are the same – unlike the firm’s long-standing phone poll series for the Guardian.
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Martin Bamford@martinbamford·50s
90% of Scottish FS customers are south of border. Scottish FS will move South if 'yes' vote, removing up to £7bn pa from Scottish economy.
Martin Bamford@martinbamford·2m
If Scotland votes for independence next week, Scottish firms will become as rare a recommendation to our clients as Irish firms #offshore
Yes 3.6/3.65
No 1.39/1.4
Peter Kelner of @yougov on Sky News: "hand on heart I could not say Yes are ahead, but significant move to Yes..."
Yup. They're buying into the Nat BS. Caveat emptor.
The people who are going to be really disappointed are left-wing Scots who think they're getting a left-wing country, but they're going to get shafted whatever happens.
"Nearly half of poor children are unable to read and understand books, newspapers and websites by the time they leave primary school, according to research released by backers of a major new campaign to wipe out illiteracy in Britain.
Disadvantaged 11-year-olds are as much as seven years behind their more able peers for reading, the study has found, making Britain one of the most unequal countries in the Western World. In the EU, only Romania fares worse."
"...almost a quarter of children leave primary school each year [unable to read], with the figure rising to two-in-five among disadvantaged groups"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11080151/Nearly-half-of-poor-11-year-olds-unable-to-read-books-newspapers-and-websites.html
Any child unable to read at the age of eleven is not going to benefit from secondary school and is heading for life on welfare as they will be effectively unemployable in the modern world. This is an utter scandal, a massive waste of talent and lives and a demographic time bomb (where will the taxes come from to pay their benefits).
Yet we still have people saying the education system is working well.
"Together the English and the Scots built the British foreign service and the British Army, and the British Broadcasting Corporation, and the British Museum. It is very far from clear what would happen to any of those institutions – all of them world-class, all of them now in peril from this vote.
Is Salmond going to ask for the Elgin Marbles to be restored to Elgin? No one has thought any of this through, and I am frankly appalled by the complacency and apathy of so many of my non-political friends – people who haven’t focused at all on the debate, and think we can afford to let the Scots go because a) we subsidise them, and b) they have so many Labour MPs."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11080893/Scottish-independence-Decapitate-Britain-and-we-kill-off-the-greatest-political-union-ever.html
I know Edinburgh is the Athens of the North, but this takes the power of the Scottish Enlightenment to a new level!
Now his own poll is showing "Yes" ahead it gives him a bit of a headache.
But the monetary effects will be interesting, scotland would need higher interest rates due to the oil revenues, while england will need lower rates.
Inflation will be higher in scotland and lower in england and the price differences will favour english products, just like in the eurozone between Germany and everyone else.
The oil money also will be concentrated in the SNP hands as its scotland's largest revenue, and as scotish private businesses will get squeezed by the dutch disease, until the oil runs out Salmond can play Gaddafi of the North.
But the oil will run out, at this rate, in 10 years.
Looking at the YouGov poll, the groups that were upweighted the most were 2011 SNP Voters, and 16-24s, these were the two groups really in favour of Yes, and the oldies were downweighted, the only group opposed to Yes.
So a perfect weighting storm gave Yes the lead
Everyone is a winner
Do we get a poll from Lord Ashcroft today?
Will a bankrupt scotland go cap in hand for an english bailout and will see a repeat of 1707?
Which is it ?
A number of recent polls have produced widely-reported stories that the contest is close. They are wrong. It isn’t. The No campaign is well ahead. Its lead has held up for some months. Unless things change markedly in the next eleven weeks, Scotland will vote to remain in the United Kingdom, and by a decisive enough margin to settle the matter for many years to come.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/01/why-do-polls-scotland-vary-so-much/
An aside, Peter Kellner has had his impartiality slammed by all sides for years.
He's a Tory troll, Ken Livingstone tried to report him to the BPC and MRS for his polls showing Boris ahead in 2008, YouGov came on top then.
Some Kippers said he was biased because his wife an EU official, who won the pollsters race in the Euros?
There are other examples.
What about it Shadsy? Open up that big fat leather satchel and blow those moths away.
If you get independence then you get independence and that means doing everything yourself and accepting the consequences of it.
I assume he means that 'widely-reported stories' are wrong, but what he literally says is that the other polls are wrong.
However, in an election/referendum with turnout higher than normal, looking at the unweighted numbers can be useful.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/crude-oil-production
Scotland will be bankrupt in 10 years and england should demand in exchange for a bailout the same terms as the last one in 1707.
No scottish parliament and no devolution anymore.
But this one is a keeper
YouGov are consistently wrong about Scottish voting intentions and at least one statistician has remarked on YouGov's manipulation of raw data - I suspect that is statistician speak for YouGov ensuring they get the result they want.
Some Scots would go further and suggest Mr Kellner's close association with the Tory Party and donations to said party makes YouGov a dubious sources of Scottish political polling analysis.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/01/why-do-polls-scotland-vary-so-much/#comment-1464055289
Also enough of his readers won't get it to make it a failure in a writer as experienced as he is.
I found a nice article that is precisely what SeanT ordered.
http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/the-land-without-muslims/2013/05/19/0/
"the Japanese tend to lump all Muslims together as fundamentalists who are unwilling to give up their traditional point of view and adopt modern ways of thinking and behavior. In Japan, Islam is perceived as a strange religion, that any intelligent person should avoid."
That's what a currency union without any political union means.
And yet Denial is stronger than The Nile. You underestimate it at your peril.
In 1707 England had good reason to form a Union with Scotland, to secure itself with a land border and reduce the risk of invasion from the Continent.
There is no such pressing need in the 21st century.
What that tells you about how well Labour understands it's own voters is, of course, interesting.
Be it trade, be it finance, be it movement of people, you name it, they'll ban it.
(Of course Ireland went from being in the Sterling sphere to the DM sphere in 1978 and rejecting a currency union could well see Scotland making a similar journey in the future. It's hard to see how that would benefit the rest of the UK.)
Alex Salmond.
This is the man that wanted an Arc of Prosperity, before the financial crisis hit.
This is the man that wanted to join the Euro, before the EU currency mayhem.
This is the man that wants to invest in oil, as solar power begins its ascendency.
This is the man that wants to break-up Britain.
Perfectly possible we might get a land border again, which becomes a barrier to trade and migration.
Defence might also be compromised. Russia (and in future China) may be able to penetrate Scotland's sea and air defences more or less at will, thus compromising the mutual defence of the entire British isles.
The sensible thing would be to have permanent rUk/NATO bases in Scotland with a joint defence strategy, but politics might preclude that.
someone trying to shout down Jim Murphy doing a Sky News interview with heckles such as "nasty britnats"...
Oh but wait a minute - it's neutral.
But just wait for the Orange Order march in Edinburgh... There's bound to be trouble, given how YES have fired up so many of their activists. Anyone who has witnessed an Orange walk knows that the Orangemen do like to, er, 'respond' to any insults received.
The excuse that it's not 1707 is very hollow, the 21st century is not different in its foreign affairs than the 18th, countries are still invaded and annexed.
Scotland will lose its parliament and independence again, once the oil runs out.
Both sides have been talking arrant nonsense on the question of the EU. Of course Salmond's nonsense was the more ridiculous of the two - the idea that Scotland would suddenly automatically become a member of the EU was completely laughable. On the other side, the suggestion that Scotland would be locked out of access to EU markets is, in practice, scarcely less silly.
The question is, not whether an independent Scotland could eventually become a full EU member, but on what terms and in what timescale. You are right that there is a political issue in respect of Spain in particular, and that is likely to delay things, possibly for some years. But in the meantime there would certainly be some interim agreement to allow trade (and fishing!) to continue with as little disruption as possible.
We may end up with a tartan Albania for a neighbour.
Then the Free State fixed it's exchange rate to Sterling. Again, not a currency union.
Any negotiation should revolve on an independence referendum from scotland for the orkneys, the shetlands and the hebrides.
That would show the SNP.
It's an issue that could just come into play before independence too. Passions would be running extremely high.
Ignore them. Don't let them grind you down. It's not over until the fat lady sings.
Please don't give up.
One of the terms would be that they protect bank account deposits to the tune of the first €100,000 (£85000). That's hard to do if you haven't got a central bank or lender of last resort, and if the Herfindahl index of your retail banking system is over 3000, with two banks accounting for about 70% of it. That said, both RBS and Lloyds would move south. But rUK isn't going to protect Scottish accounts with rUK-registered banks. (Why should it?)
Lloyds only registered in Scotland after being broken up on EU orders, because it was so appallingly managed. Moving back south might come at great cost. It's not something they could just push a button to do.
Last week driving from Inverness to Oban it was Yes winning 7:3 on posters,plus a Yes stall in Fort William town centre.
But zero posters on Mull & Iona !
Will Scottish visas be issued by the UK?
Will Scotland be invited into the CTA?