Remember Starmer can be next PM even if CON wins most seats – politicalbetting.com

Now the mediums.

A great first run by Zebedee.

Maggie goes into second.

Now Ashleigh with Butler - clear but slow, goes into third.

Applicant said:

glw said:

TimT said:

Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT

TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM

Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.

Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.

But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.

Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.

Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.

Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.

It seems to me as if the case for NPIs rested on an unspoken assumption that the graph of transmission vs mobility reduction looked something like this:



But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:

I think e.g. the first UK lockdown probably had quite a difference compared to voluntary measures (your y axis being R?). But yes, some of the individual measures would have little effect and there's a limit to what you can do in e.g. the UK anyway.

But there are other factors too if we're looking at excess deaths. Take, voluntarily or otherwise, action to reduce R to exactly 1 when you have ten cases in the country and your excess deaths under the same conditions at time t will be much lower than if the same action was taken when there were 100k cases in the country. That, of course, further complicates comparisons of restrictions and excess deaths. Less, earlier, could give a better outcome than more, later.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Roger said:

IshmaelZ said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb

Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.

Sorry guys but rules are rules

Not a great ad for Turkish drones.

Where's this war's exocet?

It's called the NLAW, and it's British

You're welcome, Rog

"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥

🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw

Well British made (final assembly in Northern Ireland), but collaboration between the Swedes, the French and the British.

UK made. NI ...

Actually British made i.e. all the major components, missile etc are made in Britain. Mostly, Plymouth, Glenrothes, Basingstoke, but also Coventry, Gateshead, Bristol and Birmingham. Just final assembly is in Belfast, NI.

How was France involved? I'm interested.

Multinational collaboration in missiles works well in Europe, but aiui the NLAW was an MOD project delivered by Saab and Thales UK.

MISTY said:

Leon said:

Roger said:

IshmaelZ said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb

Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.

Sorry guys but rules are rules

Not a great ad for Turkish drones.

Where's this war's exocet?

It's called the NLAW, and it's British

You're welcome, Rog

"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥

🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw

For some anti-tank and anti-aircraft manufacturers, Ukraine is all their xmases at once.

The Russians are the perfect test arena. There are loads of them, they aren't that well protected or well hidden and they aren't going anywhere.

Ukraine is also a great shop window as the world has officially designated the targets Bad People. There are few protests over the compelling footage of wreckage and dead, therefore, and these can be widely shared.

I think if you’ve got an orbat of largely ex-soviet kit and have relied on the Russians for training and upgrades, you might be a little worried if your adversaries have western kit, or links to China. India I am looking at you.

Selebian said:

Applicant said:

glw said:

TimT said:

Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT

TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM

Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.

Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.

But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.

Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.

Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.

Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.

It seems to me as if the case for NPIs rested on an unspoken assumption that the graph of transmission vs mobility reduction looked something like this:



But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:

I think e.g. the first UK lockdown probably had quite a difference compared to voluntary measures (your y axis being R?). But yes, some of the individual measures would have little effect and there's a limit to what you can do in e.g. the UK anyway.

But there are other factors too if we're looking at excess deaths. Take, voluntarily or otherwise, action to reduce R to exactly 1 when you have ten cases in the country and your excess deaths under the same conditions at time t will be much lower than if the same action was taken when there were 100k cases in the country. That, of course, further complicates comparisons of restrictions and excess deaths. Less, earlier, could give a better outcome than more, later.

Anyone expecting unbounded linearity in a complex adaptive system is falling down on the job. Non-linearity and discontinuities abound.

Edit: sorry, this was in response to Applicant

tlg86 said:

NorthofStoke said:

tlg86 said:

boulay said:

Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..

If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?

Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.

Sorry if this question makes no sense!

If they go bankrupt then they're out of the league.

What would happen in these circumstances?
1. Receivers appointed.
2. Bankruptcy.
3. One hour later, new owners appointed who meet all debts and liabilities apart from loans to Abramovich.

I wonder how significant that loan from Abramovich is? Did he do it as a loan, rather than simply as a gift, for precisely this scenario?

If there's receivership and liquidation then the "new owners" would be starting from the Combined Counties League Division One (Step 6/level 10) as it would be a completely new legal entity even if they could buy the IP and history from the liquidators.

If there's administration then, if the £1.5bn is a loan from Abramovich, then he would have a veto on exit from administration, wouldn't he?

HYUFD said:

Applicant said:

If the numbers allow a more stable Con-led coalition than Lab-led coalition, a Con-led coalition is what we will have. Just like in 2010.

Not post Brexit, the LDs would not support the Tories again unless they align the UK more closely to the SM and CU even if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament like 2010. The Tories won't do that as it would split the party, boost Farage and RefUK and the ERG would go beserk!

Why is it, young HY, that you are always so certain and dogmatic about what the Lib Dems will do? I'm not. What will your Conservative Party look like after the next election?

You often remind us on here that he Conservative Party will change its policy at the drop of a hat if that is what it takes to get itself elected to government. Who can say now what policy platform the Conservatives will stand on at the next election?

If, in order to get elected, the Conservatives drop all their current failing policies (and politicians), and adopt Lib Dem policy lock stock and barrel, might that not entice the Lib Dem party to give their support some serious consideration?

Eabhal said:

1) Appreciate everyone is very excited by the excess deaths figures. Actuarial/statistical types I know don't think a proper assessment can be made for a few years (particularly of you want to take account of delayed cancer ops, QALY etc).

2) We need better names for our military stuff in the Tiktok wars. NLAW = Frostbolt? Queen Elizabeth = Ark Royal.

Dunno. Every time I see 'NLAW' I mentally read it similarly to 'in-law'. And in-laws are universally* feared and loathed, aren't they?

*well, I actually like mine very much, but let's ignore that for now

Roger said:

IshmaelZ said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb

Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.

Sorry guys but rules are rules

Not a great ad for Turkish drones.

Where's this war's exocet?

Lordy. More.

It's a post-Soviet drone, not Turkish ....

Applicant said:

tlg86 said:

That was a truly terrible umpiring decision. Thank God for DRS.

There was an awful one yesterday evening too - gave an LBW where there was a clear inside edge in real time.

The need to use local umpires due to Covid has had, shall we say, an uneven impact in different countries.

glw said:

TimT said:

Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT

TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM

Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.

Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.

But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.

Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.

Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.

Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.

There are a bunch of analyses disentangling the various NPIs, which should be of great use going forwards. The minor further benefits of the stay-at-home order itself only comes useful when rates are very high and need to be brought down quickly. One big take-home is to apply NPIs early if they're needed at all - to avoid the need to go really hard when you otherwise wouldn't have needed to do so.

It's a difficult area to discuss, because a whole bunch of people are almost religious in one way or the other - they only want to be confirmed in their faith rather than to find out what did work, what didn't work, and why.

My personal list:
- Banning large gatherings (100+) gets a decent way there (around a 30% reduction in R).
- Banning medium gatherings (10+) gets another big chunk (boosts that to near 50% reduction)
- WFH where possible helps a lot (variable)
- If masks are to be used, get free/cheap FFP3/N95 masks out there
- Close nonessential businesses if necessary (another 30% reduction)

Head down that list as far as necessary. Closing schools and Universities does help, and a stay-at-home order does help to a degree, but if you've left it late enough to need that, you screwed up. Or it's a really transmissible disease.

It also helps a lot if people are willing to comply without compulsion. When you get a country wittering on about whether Scotch Eggs would exclude them from an NPI, you're gonna need compulsion, unfortunately.

Cookie said:

Leon said:

China exercising its normal light touch when it comes to lockdowns


"Changchun city, 9 millions residents.
It is in lockdown now.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1502219611265466374?t=eumEqYl8KvFosGCtoXJU3A&s=19

Chinese authority sent all 6556 students of a university off to Covid quarantine camps yesterday.

Totally more than 20 000 people were bussed away to quarantine camps yesterday."

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502285200398553090?s=20&t=RCQN0IBjXut1uF23e4HjVQ

*Startled expression*

They'll run out of space in the quarantine camps pretty quickly, at this rate.

Whole country in lockdown by St. Patrick's Day at this rate.

This is going to be quite the collision.

China's Zero Covid Policy (in which it has invested so much time, money and pride) meets Omicron the Mighty, on BA2 steroids

Can China avoid being one enormous Hong Kong?


Some maths. Hong Kong suffered 281 deaths yesterday, in a population of 7.5 million

China's population is 1.4 billion: 186 times bigger then HK

If China's Omicron crisis gets as bad as HK's, China will see 52,000 deaths a day

That's how bad it could get, potentially (tho of course the voluntary and obligatory lockdowns which would kick in long before then make this highly unlikely).

.

Selebian said:

Eabhal said:

1) Appreciate everyone is very excited by the excess deaths figures. Actuarial/statistical types I know don't think a proper assessment can be made for a few years (particularly of you want to take account of delayed cancer ops, QALY etc).

2) We need better names for our military stuff in the Tiktok wars. NLAW = Frostbolt? Queen Elizabeth = Ark Royal.

Dunno. Every time I see 'NLAW' I mentally read it similarly to 'in-law'. And in-laws are universally* feared and loathed, aren't they?

*well, I actually like mine very much, but let's ignore that for now

Depends whether they're with you or against you, so it's fairly apt.

BlancheLivermore said:

Tomasz Oryński
@TOrynski
How an Ukrainian village armed with two flags defeated two Russian tanks:

1. 4 Russian tanks enter village. Villagers watch carefully from distance. Russians transfer fuel from two of them to other two, get onto those two and leave the two dry tanks in the village.

2. Villagers plant Ukrainian flags on those tanks.

3. The other two tanks return, see tanks with Ukrainian flags and open fire, destroying them completely. Keep driving around looking for their other two tanks.

4. One of the yanks drives onto a bridge with 5 tonnes weight limit. the bridge collapses, tanks falls into the river, everyone inside dies.

5. The other tank keeps driving around, get lost and finally gets stuck in the ditch. Russians get out of it and walk away.

Source: https://facebook.com/115577336004381/posts/841929190035855/

https://twitter.com/TOrynski/status/1502274459620855812

Sounds great, and I hope it happened, but I suspect that this is another 'Gouse of Kyiv' story.

What happened to the men in the 2 tanks left with no fuel? did they sit in their tanks will the locals put flags on their thanks? really? if not how did they fit in the other 2 tanks, tanks do not have much room for passengers.

Selebian said:

Applicant said:

glw said:

TimT said:

Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT

TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM

Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.

Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.

But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.

Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.

Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.

Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.

It seems to me as if the case for NPIs rested on an unspoken assumption that the graph of transmission vs mobility reduction looked something like this:



But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:

I think e.g. the first UK lockdown probably had quite a difference compared to voluntary measures (your y axis being R?). But yes, some of the individual measures would have little effect and there's a limit to what you can do in e.g. the UK anyway.

But there are other factors too if we're looking at excess deaths. Take, voluntarily or otherwise, action to reduce R to exactly 1 when you have ten cases in the country and your excess deaths under the same conditions at time t will be much lower than if the same action was taken when there were 100k cases in the country. That, of course, further complicates comparisons of restrictions and excess deaths. Less, earlier, could give a better outcome than more, later.

The y-axis is R, yes, from zero to R0; x-axis is mobility reduction from 0% to 100%, 0% being "everyone acts exactly as if there were no virus" and 100% being "literally everyone stays at home for three weeks and nobody goes anywhere (oh, and society collapses)". The graphs are deliberately oversimplified and it's intrinsincally not knowable because we can't run parrallel universes, but my suspicion is that we're closer to graph 2 than graph 1 - and the lack of correlation between MPI intensity and excess deaths is evidence towards my hypothesis.

There is the complicating factor, of course, that excess deaths caused by the NPIs exist - and will be hidden in the death statistics for some years to come.

TimT said:

Applicant said:

CarlottaVance said:

Thread:

V. important paper published in the Lancet - the first peer-reviewed global estimates of excess deaths (the most reliable way to compare Covid deaths) over first 2 years of pandemic with findings that will surprise many & correct five widespread misconceptions / assumptions:
1/9

1. Far from the UK having the worst death rate in Europe (or even Western Europe) as many still think, it is actually 29th in Europe & 9th in Western Europe - below the Western European average & at the same level as France & Germany (no statistically significant difference)....

3. England hasn't had a higher death rate than other home nations: all are basically the same level with no statistically significant difference:

England: 125.8 (122.1 - 128.7)
Northern Ireland: 131.8 (101.6 - 165.0)
Scotland: 130.6 (115.7 - 145.1)
Wales: 135.5 (121.9 - 147.5)

https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1502227968353091585?s=20&t=84-YVzgUiv7w0k_h16BGSA

5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.

Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.

But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.

Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.

Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood was wrong or useless.

Fortunately we have the Lancet's legendary level of quality control and editorial rigour which ensure that only the very best papers are published on the subject with zero agenda being driven.

Bellingcat (& replies in comments) showing Russian jets taking off, crossing the border with Ukraine before u-turning and attacking a Belarussian town. Ukrainian Parliament and Belarussian media also saying that a Belarussian town was attacked. Looks like Belarus is now in.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502293789762854918

'Embarrassment': Two CalMac ferries to be built in Turkey https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19986756.embarrassment-two-calmac-ferries-built-turkey/?ref=twtrec

biggles said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

China exercising its normal light touch when it comes to lockdowns


"Changchun city, 9 millions residents.
It is in lockdown now.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1502219611265466374?t=eumEqYl8KvFosGCtoXJU3A&s=19

Chinese authority sent all 6556 students of a university off to Covid quarantine camps yesterday.

Totally more than 20 000 people were bussed away to quarantine camps yesterday."

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502285200398553090?s=20&t=RCQN0IBjXut1uF23e4HjVQ

*Startled expression*

They'll run out of space in the quarantine camps pretty quickly, at this rate.

Whole country in lockdown by St. Patrick's Day at this rate.

This is going to be quite the collision.

China's Zero Covid Policy (in which it has invested so much time, money and pride) meets Omicron the Mighty, on BA2 steroids

Can China avoid being one enormous Hong Kong?


Some maths. Hong Kong suffered 281 deaths yesterday, in a population of 7.5 million

China's population is 1.4 billion: 186 times bigger then HK

If China's Omicron crisis gets as bad as HK's, China will see 52,000 deaths a day

That's how bad it could get, potentially (tho of course the voluntary and obligatory lockdowns which would kick in long before then make this highly unlikely).

A relevant factor is China’s willingness (or not) to import western vaccines and implicitly admit it’s own aren’t as good. Seems unlikely, sadly.

I'm trying to find out what vax they are using for their booster campaign (which they are now desperately accelerating). It appears to be the same old same old: Sinovac and Sinopharm, the first of which is hugely questionable re Omicron, and the second of which is a bit meh

I find it hard to believe they aren't using MRNA's for the booster shots, when everyone knows they are superior, especially when mixed and matched, and this is a race against time. There are plenty of MRNA shots available, so is it really just national pride?!

Hubris, nemesis, perhaps

I talked with an Estonian analyst who has access to info and who I regard as one of the best we have here. His main conclusion: "The danger is far from over but there is reason for a very cautious optimism. Russian advance has clearly stalled." More below:

https://twitter.com/holger_r/status/1502269876999757831

Chameleon said:

Bellingcat (& replies in comments) showing Russian jets taking off, crossing the border with Ukraine before u-turning and attacking a Belarussian town. Ukrainian Parliament and Belarussian media also saying that a Belarussian town was attacked. Looks like Belarus is now in.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502293789762854918

There needs to be a very well planned 'special operation' to overthrow Lukashenko.

williamglenn said:

Chameleon said:

Bellingcat (& replies in comments) showing Russian jets taking off, crossing the border with Ukraine before u-turning and attacking a Belarussian town. Ukrainian Parliament and Belarussian media also saying that a Belarussian town was attacked. Looks like Belarus is now in.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502293789762854918

There needs to be a very well planned 'special operation' to overthrow Lukashenko.

It’s proven to be the only way to prevent wars.

logical_song said:

Mike said "Under Johnson the Tories are, I would suggest, uncoalitionable."
So, if the Tories are the biggest party but don't have a majority, is there any other else who could take over and form a government? I suspect not.

Starmer, if he got confidence and supply from the SNP and the LDs and combined they get to 326 seats or more

biggles said:

Chameleon said:

Cookie said:

Chameleon said:

Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).

Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/1502241215651135488

4 out of how many? I have no idea how significant that it.

Maybe 20 major generals on the ground in Ukraine, another 10 on the ground above them?

In total each of the 12 Russian armies has a commander (usually Lt Gen or Maj Gen), then a Chief of Staff and deputy commander (both Maj Gen)

Latest death is Andriy Kolesnikov, who was Major General in charge of Russia's 29th army.

Others were:
Sukhovetsky, Maj General, deputy commander 41st.
Gerasimov, Maj General, Chief of Staff 41st.
Magomed Tushaev, Maj General, Chechens

(their positions can be verified here: https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/41-я_общевойсковая_армия?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

So of the 36-40 most prominent Russian generals that are Maj/Lt generals in charge of units, and could be deployed on the ground, 4 of them have been killed, while around 10 of them aren't deployed to this conflict.

At least another eight will have been dropped into Putin’s tank of giant sharks with laser beams for their failure to deliver on his plan.

Dr Evil styal?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh7bYNAHXxw

TimT said:

Selebian said:

Applicant said:

glw said:

TimT said:

Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT

TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM

Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.

Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.

But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.

Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.

Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.

Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.

It seems to me as if the case for NPIs rested on an unspoken assumption that the graph of transmission vs mobility reduction looked something like this:



But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:

I think e.g. the first UK lockdown probably had quite a difference compared to voluntary measures (your y axis being R?). But yes, some of the individual measures would have little effect and there's a limit to what you can do in e.g. the UK anyway.

But there are other factors too if we're looking at excess deaths. Take, voluntarily or otherwise, action to reduce R to exactly 1 when you have ten cases in the country and your excess deaths under the same conditions at time t will be much lower than if the same action was taken when there were 100k cases in the country. That, of course, further complicates comparisons of restrictions and excess deaths. Less, earlier, could give a better outcome than more, later.

Anyone expecting unbounded linearity in a complex adaptive system is falling down on the job. Non-linearity and discontinuities abound.

Edit: sorry, this was in response to Applicant

I am a (lapsed) physicist, so it wouldn't have been a totally unreasonable response to me. We are afterall notorious for oversimplifying complex systems to get the maths to work

Chameleon said:

Cookie said:

Chameleon said:

Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).

Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/1502241215651135488

4 out of how many? I have no idea how significant that it.

Maybe 20 major generals on the ground in Ukraine, another 10 on the ground above them?

In total each of the 12 Russian armies has a commander (usually Lt Gen or Maj Gen), then a Chief of Staff and deputy commander (both Maj Gen)

Latest death is Andriy Kolesnikov, who was Major General in charge of Russia's 29th army.

Others were:
Sukhovetsky, Maj General, deputy commander 41st.
Gerasimov, Maj General, Chief of Staff 41st.
Magomed Tushaev, Maj General, Chechens

(their positions can be verified here: https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/41-я_общевойсковая_армия?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

So of the 36-40 most prominent Russian generals that are Maj/Lt generals in charge of units, and could be deployed on the ground, 4 of them have been killed, while around 10 of them aren't deployed to this conflict.

So at 10%

if 10% of all ranks where now dead, that would be 19,000 ish so about in line with Ukrainian government estimates.

BigRich said:

biggles said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

China exercising its normal light touch when it comes to lockdowns


"Changchun city, 9 millions residents.
It is in lockdown now.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1502219611265466374?t=eumEqYl8KvFosGCtoXJU3A&s=19

Chinese authority sent all 6556 students of a university off to Covid quarantine camps yesterday.

Totally more than 20 000 people were bussed away to quarantine camps yesterday."

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502285200398553090?s=20&t=RCQN0IBjXut1uF23e4HjVQ

*Startled expression*

They'll run out of space in the quarantine camps pretty quickly, at this rate.

Whole country in lockdown by St. Patrick's Day at this rate.

This is going to be quite the collision.

China's Zero Covid Policy (in which it has invested so much time, money and pride) meets Omicron the Mighty, on BA2 steroids

Can China avoid being one enormous Hong Kong?


Some maths. Hong Kong suffered 281 deaths yesterday, in a population of 7.5 million

China's population is 1.4 billion: 186 times bigger then HK

If China's Omicron crisis gets as bad as HK's, China will see 52,000 deaths a day

That's how bad it could get, potentially (tho of course the voluntary and obligatory lockdowns which would kick in long before then make this highly unlikely).

A relevant factor is China’s willingness (or not) to import western vaccines and implicitly admit it’s own aren’t as good. Seems unlikely, sadly.

Somebody down below, commented that China is now doing that and has given 35% of there population at least one does of a good vaccine. I don't know how accurate that report was, there was no link, but if its the 35% most vanrable and they can boost that to say 50% in the next 2-3 weeks then that would make it significantly less bad.

It looks like China has, very recently, moved to allowing mix and match boosters, with a DOMESTIC MRNA jab?

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202202/21/WS6212ce3da310cdd39bc87c1b.html

That's late February. Ouch. It is going to be close - whether they can avoid Hong Kong type scenes (and of course we don't know the state of vaccine refusal in elderly Chinese, whether it is as bad as in HK)

Selebian said:

TimT said:

Selebian said:

Applicant said:

glw said:

TimT said:

Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT

TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM

Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.

Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.

But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.

Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.

Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.

Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.

It seems to me as if the case for NPIs rested on an unspoken assumption that the graph of transmission vs mobility reduction looked something like this:



But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:

I think e.g. the first UK lockdown probably had quite a difference compared to voluntary measures (your y axis being R?). But yes, some of the individual measures would have little effect and there's a limit to what you can do in e.g. the UK anyway.

But there are other factors too if we're looking at excess deaths. Take, voluntarily or otherwise, action to reduce R to exactly 1 when you have ten cases in the country and your excess deaths under the same conditions at time t will be much lower than if the same action was taken when there were 100k cases in the country. That, of course, further complicates comparisons of restrictions and excess deaths. Less, earlier, could give a better outcome than more, later.

Anyone expecting unbounded linearity in a complex adaptive system is falling down on the job. Non-linearity and discontinuities abound.

Edit: sorry, this was in response to Applicant

I am a (lapsed) physicist, so it wouldn't have been a totally unreasonable response to me. We are afterall notorious for oversimplifying complex systems to get the maths to work

“For the purposes of this model we assume no air resistance, no gravity, and no friction - because basically I can’t be arsed”.

Alistair said:

Leon said:

Quite extraordinarily bad situation in Hong Kong right now

"To say Hong Kong's current Covid death rate is the highest in the world doesn't quite do justice to how extreme it is. It is markedly higher than any of the countries with the worst overall Covid death rates have ever recorded on a weekly basis."

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1501839293643649026?s=20&t=wpNRsEKuGQQkyv8jygYkHQ

The massive gap in vaccinations of the over 60s is absolutely astounding.

This doesn't look good for mainland China


"Nearly nine months after China started offering COVID-19 vaccines to seniors aged 60 and above, about 50 million people in this age group remain unvaccinated. Chinese health authorities today announced a new drive to push more older adults to get inoculated. Yet the calls were met with hesitancy and outright opposition from many families with seniors, who cited concerns about side effects as their main reason for reluctance."

https://supchina.com/2021/11/30/china-wants-higher-vaccination-rate-among-seniors-but-hesitant-people-say-beijing-is-too-pushy/


50 million potential victims of Omicron?

On the other hand, China has the advantage of being a brutal autocracy, so it can just go around forcing needles into people, if it has to

Ragnar eliminated. Falling like dominoes this afternoon.

Leon said:

Alistair said:

Leon said:

Quite extraordinarily bad situation in Hong Kong right now

"To say Hong Kong's current Covid death rate is the highest in the world doesn't quite do justice to how extreme it is. It is markedly higher than any of the countries with the worst overall Covid death rates have ever recorded on a weekly basis."

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1501839293643649026?s=20&t=wpNRsEKuGQQkyv8jygYkHQ

The massive gap in vaccinations of the over 60s is absolutely astounding.

This doesn't look good for mainland China


"Nearly nine months after China started offering COVID-19 vaccines to seniors aged 60 and above, about 50 million people in this age group remain unvaccinated. Chinese health authorities today announced a new drive to push more older adults to get inoculated. Yet the calls were met with hesitancy and outright opposition from many families with seniors, who cited concerns about side effects as their main reason for reluctance."

https://supchina.com/2021/11/30/china-wants-higher-vaccination-rate-among-seniors-but-hesitant-people-say-beijing-is-too-pushy/


50 million potential victims of Omicron?

On the other hand, China has the advantage of being a brutal autocracy, so it can just go around forcing needles into people, if it has to

Or worse, is brutal enough to see this as an opportunity to reduce the aging population issue.

BigRich said:

Chameleon said:

Cookie said:

Chameleon said:

Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).

Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/1502241215651135488

4 out of how many? I have no idea how significant that it.

Maybe 20 major generals on the ground in Ukraine, another 10 on the ground above them?

In total each of the 12 Russian armies has a commander (usually Lt Gen or Maj Gen), then a Chief of Staff and deputy commander (both Maj Gen)

Latest death is Andriy Kolesnikov, who was Major General in charge of Russia's 29th army.

Others were:
Sukhovetsky, Maj General, deputy commander 41st.
Gerasimov, Maj General, Chief of Staff 41st.
Magomed Tushaev, Maj General, Chechens

(their positions can be verified here: https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/41-я_общевойсковая_армия?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

So of the 36-40 most prominent Russian generals that are Maj/Lt generals in charge of units, and could be deployed on the ground, 4 of them have been killed, while around 10 of them aren't deployed to this conflict.

So at 10%

if 10% of all ranks where now dead, that would be 19,000 ish so about in line with Ukrainian government estimates.

I've asked before, and don't recall getting an answer...... are Russian troops surrendering, and if so, what happens to them?
I can't imagine the life prospects for a Russian soldier who is found by his colleagues as a POW are good.

Now Eric the Labrador.

Fast and true. Go Eric!

Yes!! 38 seconds and clear.

One dog to go

Two refusals and a missed jump. 15 faults! Eric wins.

TimT said:

IanB2 said:

It’s down to Arthur the wire haired Viszla to rescue something from this…

Good start. 5 faults. 10 faults. But he finishes and goes into the lead!

I hope this is sheep dog trials

Is it Crufts? I've been a bit bemused

MISTY said:

biggles said:

MISTY said:

Leon said:

Roger said:

IshmaelZ said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb

Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.

Sorry guys but rules are rules

Not a great ad for Turkish drones.

Where's this war's exocet?

It's called the NLAW, and it's British

You're welcome, Rog

"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥

🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw

For some anti-tank and anti-aircraft manufacturers, Ukraine is all their xmases at once.

The Russians are the perfect test arena. There are loads of them, they aren't that well protected or well hidden and they aren't going anywhere.

Ukraine is also a great shop window as the world has officially designated the targets Bad People. There are few protests over the compelling footage of wreckage and dead, therefore, and these can be widely shared.

I think if you’ve got an orbat of largely ex-soviet kit and have relied on the Russians for training and upgrades, you might be a little worried if your adversaries have western kit, or links to China. India I am looking at you.

I think it was PJ O'Rourke who once opined that, if we're going to waste taxpayers' cash, high tech weaponry is the best way to waste it.

Yes, PJ O'Rourke, I'd have thought.

IanB2 said:

Two refusals and a missed jump. 15 faults! Eric wins.

A travesty for me.

"Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside."


Good. Turmoil in the Kremlin

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1502221544499601411?s=20&t=dk5NkmBn_-nPSr2yPnf-Nw

OldKingCole said:

BigRich said:

Chameleon said:

Cookie said:

Chameleon said:

Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).

Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/1502241215651135488

4 out of how many? I have no idea how significant that it.

Maybe 20 major generals on the ground in Ukraine, another 10 on the ground above them?

In total each of the 12 Russian armies has a commander (usually Lt Gen or Maj Gen), then a Chief of Staff and deputy commander (both Maj Gen)

Latest death is Andriy Kolesnikov, who was Major General in charge of Russia's 29th army.

Others were:
Sukhovetsky, Maj General, deputy commander 41st.
Gerasimov, Maj General, Chief of Staff 41st.
Magomed Tushaev, Maj General, Chechens

(their positions can be verified here: https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/41-я_общевойсковая_армия?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

So of the 36-40 most prominent Russian generals that are Maj/Lt generals in charge of units, and could be deployed on the ground, 4 of them have been killed, while around 10 of them aren't deployed to this conflict.

So at 10%

if 10% of all ranks where now dead, that would be 19,000 ish so about in line with Ukrainian government estimates.

I've asked before, and don't recall getting an answer...... are Russian troops surrendering, and if so, what happens to them?
I can't imagine the life prospects for a Russian soldier who is found by his colleagues as a POW are good.

some have clearly surrendered, we have seen enough on youtube to know that. but it does not seem like large numbers at any one point.

I do wander about the number 'missing' individuals or small groups who have got detached from their units, possibly because of pore coms, lack of maps, or there vehicles running out of fuel. these solders may not have decided what to do next, i.e. if they find main Russian forces then they will return to there unit, but if they find Ukrainians first perhaps they will surrender.

williamglenn said:

Chameleon said:

Bellingcat (& replies in comments) showing Russian jets taking off, crossing the border with Ukraine before u-turning and attacking a Belarussian town. Ukrainian Parliament and Belarussian media also saying that a Belarussian town was attacked. Looks like Belarus is now in.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502293789762854918

There needs to be a very well planned 'special operation' to overthrow Lukashenko.

Dreadful man. No domestic mandate whatsoever. Rigged the election, terrorizes opponents with his police state, beholden to Putin for everything.

Leon said:

philiph said:

Leon said:

biggles said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

China exercising its normal light touch when it comes to lockdowns


"Changchun city, 9 millions residents.
It is in lockdown now.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1502219611265466374?t=eumEqYl8KvFosGCtoXJU3A&s=19

Chinese authority sent all 6556 students of a university off to Covid quarantine camps yesterday.

Totally more than 20 000 people were bussed away to quarantine camps yesterday."

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502285200398553090?s=20&t=RCQN0IBjXut1uF23e4HjVQ

*Startled expression*

They'll run out of space in the quarantine camps pretty quickly, at this rate.

Whole country in lockdown by St. Patrick's Day at this rate.

This is going to be quite the collision.

China's Zero Covid Policy (in which it has invested so much time, money and pride) meets Omicron the Mighty, on BA2 steroids

Can China avoid being one enormous Hong Kong?


Some maths. Hong Kong suffered 281 deaths yesterday, in a population of 7.5 million

China's population is 1.4 billion: 186 times bigger then HK

If China's Omicron crisis gets as bad as HK's, China will see 52,000 deaths a day

That's how bad it could get, potentially (tho of course the voluntary and obligatory lockdowns which would kick in long before then make this highly unlikely).

A relevant factor is China’s willingness (or not) to import western vaccines and implicitly admit it’s own aren’t as good. Seems unlikely, sadly.

I'm trying to find out what vax they are using for their booster campaign (which they are now desperately accelerating). It appears to be the same old same old: Sinovac and Sinopharm, the first of which is hugely questionable re Omicron, and the second of which is a bit meh

I find it hard to believe they aren't using MRNA's for the booster shots, when everyone knows they are superior, especially when mixed and matched, and this is a race against time. There are plenty of MRNA shots available, so is it really just national pride?!

Hubris, nemesis, perhaps

Access to enough -40 (?) storage?

See my later comment below, it looks like China has got round the problem - they now have their own local MRNA jab. But they are pushed for time, in terms of getting the whole population boosted

Does it work though....

"Why London loved Roman Abramovich
He changed us more than we changed him
BY WILL LLOYD"

https://unherd.com/2022/03/why-london-loved-roman-abramovich/

A comfortable win for Lightning on the practice round.

BlancheLivermore said:

Tomasz Oryński
@TOrynski
How an Ukrainian village armed with two flags defeated two Russian tanks:

1. 4 Russian tanks enter village. Villagers watch carefully from distance. Russians transfer fuel from two of them to other two, get onto those two and leave the two dry tanks in the village.

2. Villagers plant Ukrainian flags on those tanks.

3. The other two tanks return, see tanks with Ukrainian flags and open fire, destroying them completely. Keep driving around looking for their other two tanks.

4. One of the yanks drives onto a bridge with 5 tonnes weight limit. the bridge collapses, tanks falls into the river, everyone inside dies.

5. The other tank keeps driving around, get lost and finally gets stuck in the ditch. Russians get out of it and walk away.

Source: https://facebook.com/115577336004381/posts/841929190035855/

https://twitter.com/TOrynski/status/1502274459620855812

Ordinarily you'd be extremely skeptical of this story, but it does sound as if it fits with the level of stupidity of much we are seeing in this war...

Hampshire foul so Somerset win the first round

geoffw said:

BigRich said:

Chameleon said:

Cookie said:

Chameleon said:

Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).

Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/1502241215651135488

4 out of how many? I have no idea how significant that it.

Maybe 20 major generals on the ground in Ukraine, another 10 on the ground above them?

In total each of the 12 Russian armies has a commander (usually Lt Gen or Maj Gen), then a Chief of Staff and deputy commander (both Maj Gen)

Latest death is Andriy Kolesnikov, who was Major General in charge of Russia's 29th army.

Others were:
Sukhovetsky, Maj General, deputy commander 41st.
Gerasimov, Maj General, Chief of Staff 41st.
Magomed Tushaev, Maj General, Chechens

(their positions can be verified here: https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/41-я_общевойсковая_армия?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

So of the 36-40 most prominent Russian generals that are Maj/Lt generals in charge of units, and could be deployed on the ground, 4 of them have been killed, while around 10 of them aren't deployed to this conflict.

So at 10%

if 10% of all ranks where now dead, that would be 19,000 ish so about in line with Ukrainian government estimates.

The other day a senior analyst or military type used the word "decimation" - correctly.

Yep, the former Chief of Staff or whatever in the UK.