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Remember Starmer can be next PM even if CON wins most seats – politicalbetting.com
Remember Starmer can be next PM even if CON wins most seats – politicalbetting.com
For almost the last three months I have been saying that Starmer for next PM is one of the better political bets at the moment. He’s currently a 14% chance on Betfair which has moved up a fair bit since the 8-9% betting chance he was on in January when the narrative was that Johnson would be booted out.
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'the trouble with Putin is that he's got a very big ego....'
LOL the ultimate political pot/kettle, surely.
Johnson would also have to invoke Art 16 to get DUP support again, the DUP the only party who might still support the Tories in a hung parliament
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Will Omicron get to China? Almost certainly - you can't lockdown your way out of this one.
Will it result in major health problems? I had thought not - Omicron being mild and all that - but maybe HK gives the lie to that. Does HK have issues with vaccines (takeup/mix of vaccines (is Sinovac any good?)/how boosted are they?) Do the same things apply in China? But even if it does strike, my expectation is that it won't strike hard for long - a peak, and then waning by four weeks later.
Will the Chinese state's response have implications? Quite probably. They are still apparently wedded to zero covid. They will try to lockdown their way out of it. This could by March 2020 on steroids for them. Conceivably they could try to bring China to a complete standstill.
Which would be something of a nuisance for the already precarious world economy - but could also have an ameliorative effect on fuel prices and other commodities.
@shreyadhoundial
Just IN : Govt of India statement on the ' Missile Incident ' raised by Pakistan
* During regular mantainance a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. It landed in Pakistan.
* A high-level Court of Enquiry ordered.
* Incident deeply regrettable
https://twitter.com/shreyadhoundial/status/1502272187163877382
'I rebuilt our whole nuclear arsenal. Stronger, bigger and better than ever before.
'It's better and bigger than Russia. He should say we are a nuclear nation, we don't want war and we don't want to wipe out Russia.
'This is the way he should be talking, he isn't talking about our nuclear capability.
'Instead, he keeps saying that they are a nuclear nation, we don't want war. He is playing right into Putin's hands when he does that....Maybe they understood me even better, that's OK, because they knew there'd be a big penalty.'
Trump added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'truly is a crime against humanity' which 'has to end soon'.
'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego,' he explained.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10601975/Trump-tears-Biden-playing-Putins-hands.html
you get the impression that some really would not.
The resulting surge in infections has overwhelmed the public healthcare system, stretching the capacity of isolation wards, intensive care facilities and mortuaries to their limit. Patients are routinely turned away from hospitals, while high-risk elderly admissions have been left waiting outside, sometimes in the cold.
(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/in-zero-covid-hong-kong-deaths-smash-global-records
now that is put down to poor vaccine uptake among the elderly in Hong Kong, but the Chinese vaccines are a bag of shit, so there is no certainty even if there were jabbed with Chinese vaccines it would be helping that much. One just doesn't work and the other the protection wanes really quickly (such that in places like Chile they went round and gave everybody 2 more jabs of Pfizer).
In any case the last poll had the DUP back up a bit to a clear second on 19% and that was for Stormont, at FPTP Westminster fewer would vote TUV and more DUP
They are now boostering as fast as they can (presumably with MRNA?), but they've only got to 35% or so
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Quite possible they could see a Hong Kong type situation in multiple cities. A short, sharp pretty hideous shock, and a lot of dead old people
HK has a a real problem with older vax refuseniks; not sure if that is the case on the mainland
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1501984893206773760?t=lwD_zsrlfI8eA83cDzfUtA&s=19
Sort of pretext Putin would use!
It's just that the price went up next time.
"To say Hong Kong's current Covid death rate is the highest in the world doesn't quite do justice to how extreme it is. It is markedly higher than any of the countries with the worst overall Covid death rates have ever recorded on a weekly basis."
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1501839293643649026?s=20&t=wpNRsEKuGQQkyv8jygYkHQ
Lol.
Pot, kettle.
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
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5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
"Deep condolences to all former residents of Rawalpindi...."
Where's this war's exocet?
Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/1502241215651135488
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
Just like in 2010.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-60690251
Not world beating (due to poor handling of first wave*), but not world leading death rates (as so been reported).
* interesting that Hancock in his long form interview with "Diary of a CEO", he explained that modellers told SAGE that the UK was 3 weeks behind the likes of Italy in the first wave and since now proved to be totally wrong and UK was in fact on par with spread in Italy (due to all the skiing holidays etc). Hence why the lockdown didn't come for several weeks after Europe, as they thought a) wasn't well seeded in the UK and b) that lockdown wouldn't hold for more than a month or two.
I still get lefty friends chanting that mantra at me, when it is not just wrong, it is howlingly wrong, a complete inversion of the truth. In terms of Covid deaths, the UK has done BETTER than most countries in the world (MUCH better than many), and has done BETTER than most of her peers in western Europe.
I haven't looked at this in detail, but it depends, of course, on your comparison groups. Sweden, say - I have't checked this, did better than us on headline figures with fewer restrictions. But did worse than its neighbours with more restrictions. So what do we conclude?
There is no reason Shanghai should avoid Hong Kong's fate, unless the CCP locks it down right now?
Flights are already being diverted. This is the commercial capital of China
"Shanghai is really on edge right now over accelerating Covid cases; I haven’t seen everyone this nervous since February 2020… a lot of rumors are swirling amidst the confirmed news that schools are now closed, flights are being diverted, and public events are getting canceled"
https://twitter.com/danwwang/status/1502255518185713664?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
Another way of stating the above is that, when you make decisions based on probabilities, getting an adverse outcome does not make the decision bad. If there is a 90% chance of rain and you take an umbrella with you when you walk to the pub, if the 10% chance materializes and it does not rain, it does not make taking the umbrella a bad idea.
Then it will be in no one’s interest for the punitive ostracism of Russia to continue a moment longer, on the spurious grounds that ordinary Russians somehow “allowed” Putin to invade Ukraine. Punishing losers is a counter-productive outcome of war. It’s worth remembering the economic devastation and humiliation of Germany after 1918, or Russia after 1989. Ukraine will have to rebuild. So too will Russia. This is not kindness, just common sense.
All they have to do in return is stop being so nice to that Mr Putin.....
Classic Covid, the original, was a lumbering beast compared to the updated versions. It probably WAS stopped by surgical masks and 2m distancing etc
It is estimated that Omicron BA2 is TWENTY TIMES more transmissible than that first version. Possibly masks - certainly anything less than a well fitted FFP2 - offer no protection at all against Omicron. Hong Kong - highly mask friendly - suggests that might be the case
There might not be any NPI - short of total solitary isolation in an underground cell for years - which mitigates against Omicron Plus
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!
Enlightening thread on the Lancet report here:
https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1502227961084264450
Rates:
W. Europe: 140.0 (133.5-146.3)
Italy: 227.4 (212.0-242.5)
Portugal: 202.2 (190.7-212.2)
Spain: 186.7 (181.3-191.5)
Belgium: 146.6 (135.8-156.3)
Netherlands: 140.0 (131.3-147.6)
UK: 126.8(122.3-130.9) Eng. 125.8(122.1-128.7)
France: 124.2 (120.5-127.7)
Germany: 120.5 (115.1-125.1)
Absolute numbers:
Italy: 259000
Germany : 203000
UK: 169000 (England: 142000)
Spain: 162000
France: 155000
Betting implications? (None on Norwich, obvs.....#Doomed)
I know roughly where you live, and I know that Castlerigg is indeed amazing, so it wasn't that hard to guess (given that I am obsessed with megaliths, and visit them whenever I can)
Even in the context of wartime repression, this is astonishing – it basically likens Facebook to al-Qaeda."
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502253590815154179
Tho the Chinese are still trying to keep it out: desperately building quarantine camps in Shanghai, and now closing all schools, museums, galleries, etc. And diverting flights - from their own commercial capital
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502274934868877312?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
They know it is going to be bad. They will surely lockdown Shanghai completely?
A man who sued Coral for not paying out £250,000 on a bet that Rangers would be relegated has lost his legal fight.
Albert Kinloch, 72, placed £100 at 2,500/1 on the Ibrox club being relegated from the Scottish Premier League (SPL) in the 2011/12 season.
Quite how Betfair would handle such a situation, I don't know...
https://twitter.com/BrockmeyerHado/status/1502285189023768587?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1502243166006689804
1. Receivers appointed.
2. Bankruptcy.
3. One hour later, new owners appointed who meet all debts and liabilities apart from loans to Abramovich.
But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:
Can someone explain how a drone that cannot carry weapons can launch an armed attack?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-141
(Though I realise the Bayraktar camerawork probably isn't up to your standards.)
Generally, I think if we're smart we can learn different things from different countries that did certain things well - some of the best examples will be from outside Europe though.
https://twitter.com/PhraAthit/status/1502283981462593541?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
The locals don't seem worried, partly because "we have high levels of vaccination". They seem unaware that if they are vaxxed with Sinovac they have almost no protection
Hong Kongers are therefore skeptical:
"Shanghai, once a model city in China’s Covid-19 fightback, is tackling its biggest outbreak of the pandemic
Quarantine or isolation offer no guarantee of remaining Covid-free, notes Hong Kong-based virologist"
And Sizzle takes second place!
...The large drone flew at least 350 miles (560km) apparently undetected by air defences in Croatia and Hungary, both members of the western military alliance....
Russian general Andrey Kolesnikov is a “200”. Russian and Ukrainian lingo for “killed in action”.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1502254582906433538
"Changchun city, 9 millions residents.
It is in lockdown now.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1502219611265466374?t=eumEqYl8KvFosGCtoXJU3A&s=19
Chinese authority sent all 6556 students of a university off to Covid quarantine camps yesterday.
Totally more than 20 000 people were bussed away to quarantine camps yesterday."
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502285200398553090?s=20&t=RCQN0IBjXut1uF23e4HjVQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2awysdmPhQ&t=1793s
For some anti-tank and anti-aircraft manufacturers, Ukraine is all their xmases at once.
The Russians are the perfect test arena. There are loads of them, they aren't that well protected or well hidden and they aren't going anywhere.
Ukraine is also a great shop window as the world has officially designated the targets Bad People. There are few protests over the compelling footage of wreckage and dead, therefore, and these can be widely shared.
Tikita takes second with a great final run
Blink wins this round. Grand final this evening!
2) We need better names for our military stuff in the Tiktok wars. NLAW = Frostbolt? Queen Elizabeth = Ark Royal.
So for example if a new buyer buys the assets of Chelsea for 1.5b but there is still a legally binding debt to (what ultimately looks like a offshore company) then at some point that debt can be called in - Abramovich never apparently intended to call it in but it can be.
So the company (1.5b Ltd) that Chelsea owes 1.5b speaks to, for example Sheik X and issues paperwork confirming they have sold the debt to Sheik X for 1b.
Conveniently 1.5b Ltd has a bank account with Emirates bank to where the proceeds are paid.
Emirates bank receives instruction to pay consultancy fees to Abman Romanovich Ltd account.
At some point in the future Sheik X calls in loan of 1.5b from Chelsea making a nice 0.5b turn.
Job done.