Remember Starmer can be next PM even if CON wins most seats – politicalbetting.com
Remember Starmer can be next PM even if CON wins most seats – politicalbetting.com
For almost the last three months I have been saying that Starmer for next PM is one of the better political bets at the moment. He’s currently a 14% chance on Betfair which has moved up a fair bit since the 8-9% betting chance he was on in January when the narrative was that Johnson would be booted out.
Comments
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Convinced0
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I'm not as virulently opposed to Donald Trump as many on here, but I had to smile at his latest comments on Ukraine.
'the trouble with Putin is that he's got a very big ego....'
LOL the ultimate political pot/kettle, surely.13 -
Lets hope so and let's hope it's soon. The present one is unbearable0
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I would agree that Starmer could become PM if the Tories win most seats, provided Labour + LD + SNP is more than Tories + DUP and it is a hung parliament.
Johnson would also have to invoke Art 16 to get DUP support again, the DUP the only party who might still support the Tories in a hung parliament0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules2 -
FPT:
I was speculating on this the other day.Leon said:
Now multiply that by a thousand if omicron goes to work in China. As it might already be doing.CarlottaVance said:Grim
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has asked the public to understand its difficulties with saturated mortuaries amid the city’s Covid-19 crisis, as an image of bodies lying next to living patients on a hospital ward surfaced online.
https://hongkongfp.com/2022/03/11/covid-19-hong-kong-hospital-authority-urges-understanding-as-shocking-photo-emerges-of-bodies-stored-on-ward/
https://twitter.com/tomgrundy/status/1502229988481052674
“Mainland China reported over 1,000 new COVID-19 infections in dozens of cities, the highest daily count in about two years, with the Omicron variant forcing a northeastern city to go under lockdown and the financial hub Shanghai to close schools.”
https://twitter.com/reuters_health/status/1502264336911376387?s=21
Will Omicron get to China? Almost certainly - you can't lockdown your way out of this one.
Will it result in major health problems? I had thought not - Omicron being mild and all that - but maybe HK gives the lie to that. Does HK have issues with vaccines (takeup/mix of vaccines (is Sinovac any good?)/how boosted are they?) Do the same things apply in China? But even if it does strike, my expectation is that it won't strike hard for long - a peak, and then waning by four weeks later.
Will the Chinese state's response have implications? Quite probably. They are still apparently wedded to zero covid. They will try to lockdown their way out of it. This could by March 2020 on steroids for them. Conceivably they could try to bring China to a complete standstill.
Which would be something of a nuisance for the already precarious world economy - but could also have an ameliorative effect on fuel prices and other commodities.0 -
India has accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan.
@shreyadhoundial
Just IN : Govt of India statement on the ' Missile Incident ' raised by Pakistan
* During regular mantainance a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. It landed in Pakistan.
* A high-level Court of Enquiry ordered.
* Incident deeply regrettable
https://twitter.com/shreyadhoundial/status/15022721871638773820 -
Interesting Trump comments there and he did call Putin's invasion 'a crime against humanity.'MISTY said:I'm not as virulently opposed to Donald Trump as many on here, but I had to smile at his latest comments on Ukraine.
'the trouble with Putin is that he's got a very big ego....'
LOL the ultimate political pot/kettle, surely.
'I rebuilt our whole nuclear arsenal. Stronger, bigger and better than ever before.
'It's better and bigger than Russia. He should say we are a nuclear nation, we don't want war and we don't want to wipe out Russia.
'This is the way he should be talking, he isn't talking about our nuclear capability.
'Instead, he keeps saying that they are a nuclear nation, we don't want war. He is playing right into Putin's hands when he does that....Maybe they understood me even better, that's OK, because they knew there'd be a big penalty.'
Trump added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'truly is a crime against humanity' which 'has to end soon'.
'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego,' he explained.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10601975/Trump-tears-Biden-playing-Putins-hands.html0 -
The DUP look set to lose most of their current seatsHYUFD said:I would agree that Starmer could become PM if the Tories win most seats, provided Labour + LD + SNP is more than Tories + DUP and it is a hung parliament.
Johnson would also have to invoke Art 16 to get DUP support again, the DUP the only party who might still support the Tories in a hung parliament1 -
Yes it goes back to the argument as to whether any major Western leader would ever use a nuclear weapon under any circumstances at all.HYUFD said:
Interesting Trump comments there and he did call Putin's invasion 'a crime against humanity.'MISTY said:I'm not as virulently opposed to Donald Trump as many on here, but I had to smile at his latest comments on Ukraine.
'the trouble with Putin is that he's got a very big ego....'
LOL the ultimate political pot/kettle, surely.
'I rebuilt our whole nuclear arsenal. Stronger, bigger and better than ever before.
'It's better and bigger than Russia. He should say we are a nuclear nation, we don't want war and we don't want to wipe out Russia.
'This is the way he should be talking, he isn't talking about our nuclear capability.
'Instead, he keeps saying that they are a nuclear nation, we don't want war. He is playing right into Putin's hands when he does that....Maybe they understood me even better, that's OK, because they knew there'd be a big penalty.'
Trump added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'truly is a crime against humanity' which 'has to end soon'.
'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego,' he explained.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10601975/Trump-tears-Biden-playing-Putins-hands.html
you get the impression that some really would not.1 -
Er... it was a Ukraine drone, and unarmed.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules0 -
Hong Kong is suffering the highest official death rate per capita of any jurisdiction during the pandemic ....Cookie said:FPT:
I was speculating on this the other day.Leon said:
Now multiply that by a thousand if omicron goes to work in China. As it might already be doing.CarlottaVance said:Grim
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has asked the public to understand its difficulties with saturated mortuaries amid the city’s Covid-19 crisis, as an image of bodies lying next to living patients on a hospital ward surfaced online.
https://hongkongfp.com/2022/03/11/covid-19-hong-kong-hospital-authority-urges-understanding-as-shocking-photo-emerges-of-bodies-stored-on-ward/
https://twitter.com/tomgrundy/status/1502229988481052674
“Mainland China reported over 1,000 new COVID-19 infections in dozens of cities, the highest daily count in about two years, with the Omicron variant forcing a northeastern city to go under lockdown and the financial hub Shanghai to close schools.”
https://twitter.com/reuters_health/status/1502264336911376387?s=21
Will Omicron get to China? Almost certainly - you can't lockdown your way out of this one.
Will it result in major health problems? I had thought not - Omicron being mild and all that - but maybe HK gives the lie to that. Does HK have issues with vaccines (takeup/mix of vaccines (is Sinovac any good?)/how boosted are they?) Do the same things apply in China? But even if it does strike, my expectation is that it won't strike hard for long - a peak, and then waning by four weeks later.
Will the Chinese state's response have implications? Quite probably. They are still apparently wedded to zero covid. They will try to lockdown their way out of it. This could by March 2020 on steroids for them. Conceivably they could try to bring China to a complete standstill.
Which would be something of a nuisance for the already precarious world economy - but could also have an ameliorative effect on fuel prices and other commodities.
The resulting surge in infections has overwhelmed the public healthcare system, stretching the capacity of isolation wards, intensive care facilities and mortuaries to their limit. Patients are routinely turned away from hospitals, while high-risk elderly admissions have been left waiting outside, sometimes in the cold.
(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/in-zero-covid-hong-kong-deaths-smash-global-records
now that is put down to poor vaccine uptake among the elderly in Hong Kong, but the Chinese vaccines are a bag of shit, so there is no certainty even if there were jabbed with Chinese vaccines it would be helping that much. One just doesn't work and the other the protection wanes really quickly (such that in places like Chile they went round and gave everybody 2 more jabs of Pfizer).0 -
For fuck's sake, NOT NOW INDIAwilliamglenn said:India has accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan.
@shreyadhoundial
Just IN : Govt of India statement on the ' Missile Incident ' raised by Pakistan
* During regular mantainance a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. It landed in Pakistan.
* A high-level Court of Enquiry ordered.
* Incident deeply regrettable
https://twitter.com/shreyadhoundial/status/150227218716387738210 -
I can't think of one. (Corbyn, I grant you, if he had become a Western leader but he didn't.)MISTY said:
Yes it goes back to the argument as to whether any major Western leader would ever use a nuclear weapon under any circumstances at all.HYUFD said:
Interesting Trump comments there and he did call Putin's invasion 'a crime against humanity.'MISTY said:I'm not as virulently opposed to Donald Trump as many on here, but I had to smile at his latest comments on Ukraine.
'the trouble with Putin is that he's got a very big ego....'
LOL the ultimate political pot/kettle, surely.
'I rebuilt our whole nuclear arsenal. Stronger, bigger and better than ever before.
'It's better and bigger than Russia. He should say we are a nuclear nation, we don't want war and we don't want to wipe out Russia.
'This is the way he should be talking, he isn't talking about our nuclear capability.
'Instead, he keeps saying that they are a nuclear nation, we don't want war. He is playing right into Putin's hands when he does that....Maybe they understood me even better, that's OK, because they knew there'd be a big penalty.'
Trump added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'truly is a crime against humanity' which 'has to end soon'.
'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego,' he explained.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10601975/Trump-tears-Biden-playing-Putins-hands.html
you get the impression that some really would not.0 -
Not really, most of them are in staunch Unionist areas and if they did lose some of them they would go to the TUV who are even harder line or the UUP who also oppose the NI Protocol.MikeSmithson said:
The DUP look set to lose most of their current seatsHYUFD said:I would agree that Starmer could become PM if the Tories win most seats, provided Labour + LD + SNP is more than Tories + DUP and it is a hung parliament.
Johnson would also have to invoke Art 16 to get DUP support again, the DUP the only party who might still support the Tories in a hung parliament
In any case the last poll had the DUP back up a bit to a clear second on 19% and that was for Stormont, at FPTP Westminster fewer would vote TUV and more DUP1 -
Can't understand why you think the DUP would want to do business with your party after last time...HYUFD said:I would agree that Starmer could become PM if the Tories win most seats, provided Labour + LD + SNP is more than Tories + DUP and it is a hung parliament.
Johnson would also have to invoke Art 16 to get DUP support again, the DUP the only party who might still support the Tories in a hung parliament0 -
One fascinating (if morbid) comparisons at the moment is to look at New Zeeland compared to Hong Kong, for both this is there first big wave. and are recording similar numbers of COVID cases, (slightly more in HK than NZ but HK doing a bit more testing) and both are vaccinated to a high degree a bit more in NZ but not a lot 1.85 Doses per person against 2.11 but over the last week the death rate in HK is roughly 50 times that of NZ 5 per million v 235Leon said:
Covid & lockdown. Because Omicron BA2BigRich said:
Panic Buying dew to Covid/lockdown fears or war/global food shortages fears,Leon said:Panic buying in Shanghai. Could get messy
Or both?
See Hong Kong for the possible short term future of China
One problem is their reliance on Sinovac (used a lot in HK) which, it turns out, offers almost no protection at all against omicron. So if you’ve just had two sinovac shots then you’re essentially unvaccinated.1 -
China has a high level of vaccination, but they used a lot of Sinovac (useless against Omicron).Cookie said:FPT:
I was speculating on this the other day.Leon said:
Now multiply that by a thousand if omicron goes to work in China. As it might already be doing.CarlottaVance said:Grim
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has asked the public to understand its difficulties with saturated mortuaries amid the city’s Covid-19 crisis, as an image of bodies lying next to living patients on a hospital ward surfaced online.
https://hongkongfp.com/2022/03/11/covid-19-hong-kong-hospital-authority-urges-understanding-as-shocking-photo-emerges-of-bodies-stored-on-ward/
https://twitter.com/tomgrundy/status/1502229988481052674
“Mainland China reported over 1,000 new COVID-19 infections in dozens of cities, the highest daily count in about two years, with the Omicron variant forcing a northeastern city to go under lockdown and the financial hub Shanghai to close schools.”
https://twitter.com/reuters_health/status/1502264336911376387?s=21
Will Omicron get to China? Almost certainly - you can't lockdown your way out of this one.
Will it result in major health problems? I had thought not - Omicron being mild and all that - but maybe HK gives the lie to that. Does HK have issues with vaccines (takeup/mix of vaccines (is Sinovac any good?)/how boosted are they?) Do the same things apply in China? But even if it does strike, my expectation is that it won't strike hard for long - a peak, and then waning by four weeks later.
Will the Chinese state's response have implications? Quite probably. They are still apparently wedded to zero covid. They will try to lockdown their way out of it. This could by March 2020 on steroids for them. Conceivably they could try to bring China to a complete standstill.
Which would be something of a nuisance for the already precarious world economy - but could also have an ameliorative effect on fuel prices and other commodities.
They are now boostering as fast as they can (presumably with MRNA?), but they've only got to 35% or so
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Quite possible they could see a Hong Kong type situation in multiple cities. A short, sharp pretty hideous shock, and a lot of dead old people
HK has a a real problem with older vax refuseniks; not sure if that is the case on the mainland0 -
Wales values the Union
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1501984893206773760?t=lwD_zsrlfI8eA83cDzfUtA&s=191 -
Send in the NATO troops.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Sort of pretext Putin would use!0 -
Pork-barrel politics.RochdalePioneers said:
Can't understand why you think the DUP would want to do business with your party after last time...HYUFD said:I would agree that Starmer could become PM if the Tories win most seats, provided Labour + LD + SNP is more than Tories + DUP and it is a hung parliament.
Johnson would also have to invoke Art 16 to get DUP support again, the DUP the only party who might still support the Tories in a hung parliament
It's just that the price went up next time.2 -
Is saying 'Incident deeply regrettable' the same as saying sorry? I think sorry would be a very good word to use now.williamglenn said:India has accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan.
@shreyadhoundial
Just IN : Govt of India statement on the ' Missile Incident ' raised by Pakistan
* During regular mantainance a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. It landed in Pakistan.
* A high-level Court of Enquiry ordered.
* Incident deeply regrettable
https://twitter.com/shreyadhoundial/status/15022721871638773820 -
Quite extraordinarily bad situation in Hong Kong right now
"To say Hong Kong's current Covid death rate is the highest in the world doesn't quite do justice to how extreme it is. It is markedly higher than any of the countries with the worst overall Covid death rates have ever recorded on a weekly basis."
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1501839293643649026?s=20&t=wpNRsEKuGQQkyv8jygYkHQ
1 -
“'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego”HYUFD said:
Interesting Trump comments there and he did call Putin's invasion 'a crime against humanity.'MISTY said:I'm not as virulently opposed to Donald Trump as many on here, but I had to smile at his latest comments on Ukraine.
'the trouble with Putin is that he's got a very big ego....'
LOL the ultimate political pot/kettle, surely.
'I rebuilt our whole nuclear arsenal. Stronger, bigger and better than ever before.
'It's better and bigger than Russia. He should say we are a nuclear nation, we don't want war and we don't want to wipe out Russia.
'This is the way he should be talking, he isn't talking about our nuclear capability.
'Instead, he keeps saying that they are a nuclear nation, we don't want war. He is playing right into Putin's hands when he does that....Maybe they understood me even better, that's OK, because they knew there'd be a big penalty.'
Trump added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'truly is a crime against humanity' which 'has to end soon'.
'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego,' he explained.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10601975/Trump-tears-Biden-playing-Putins-hands.html
Lol.
Pot, kettle.0 -
Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.6 -
At £4.95?Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
We all must be grateful for how much worse it could have been.williamglenn said:India has accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan.
@shreyadhoundial
Just IN : Govt of India statement on the ' Missile Incident ' raised by Pakistan
* During regular mantainance a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. It landed in Pakistan.
* A high-level Court of Enquiry ordered.
* Incident deeply regrettable
https://twitter.com/shreyadhoundial/status/1502272187163877382
"Deep condolences to all former residents of Rawalpindi...."0 -
Not a bad idea. Use the pretext for NATO to declare war on Ukraine, not Russia, and occupy the whole country.MarqueeMark said:
Send in the NATO troops.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Sort of pretext Putin would use!
5 -
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?0 -
As they say, it takes one to recognize one. One of those brief flashes of Trump self-awareness.ping said:
“'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego”HYUFD said:
Interesting Trump comments there and he did call Putin's invasion 'a crime against humanity.'MISTY said:I'm not as virulently opposed to Donald Trump as many on here, but I had to smile at his latest comments on Ukraine.
'the trouble with Putin is that he's got a very big ego....'
LOL the ultimate political pot/kettle, surely.
'I rebuilt our whole nuclear arsenal. Stronger, bigger and better than ever before.
'It's better and bigger than Russia. He should say we are a nuclear nation, we don't want war and we don't want to wipe out Russia.
'This is the way he should be talking, he isn't talking about our nuclear capability.
'Instead, he keeps saying that they are a nuclear nation, we don't want war. He is playing right into Putin's hands when he does that....Maybe they understood me even better, that's OK, because they knew there'd be a big penalty.'
Trump added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'truly is a crime against humanity' which 'has to end soon'.
'The problem with Putin is he's got a very big ego,' he explained.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10601975/Trump-tears-Biden-playing-Putins-hands.html
Lol.
Pot, kettle.1 -
Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).
Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/15022412156511354880 -
It's called the NLAW, and it's BritishRoger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw2 -
That's not including the ones Putin has had executed for failing to deliver Blitzkrieg.....Chameleon said:Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).
0 -
It's an old Soviet drone, not the modern Turkish Bayraktar.Roger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?2 -
If the numbers allow a more stable Con-led coalition than Lab-led coalition, a Con-led coalition is what we will have.
Just like in 2010.1 -
Strange how the BBC doesn't give any clear context of where the UK are in excess deaths. From there report it would hard to know that UK middle of the pack, better than most of Europe, basically the same as France and now not far behind Germany.Leon said:Quite extraordinarily bad situation in Hong Kong right now
"To say Hong Kong's current Covid death rate is the highest in the world doesn't quite do justice to how extreme it is. It is markedly higher than any of the countries with the worst overall Covid death rates have ever recorded on a weekly basis."
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1501839293643649026?s=20&t=wpNRsEKuGQQkyv8jygYkHQ
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-60690251
Not world beating (due to poor handling of first wave*), but not world leading death rates (as so been reported).
* interesting that Hancock in his long form interview with "Diary of a CEO", he explained that modellers told SAGE that the UK was 3 weeks behind the likes of Italy in the first wave and since now proved to be totally wrong and UK was in fact on par with spread in Italy (due to all the skiing holidays etc). Hence why the lockdown didn't come for several weeks after Europe, as they thought a) wasn't well seeded in the UK and b) that lockdown wouldn't hold for more than a month or two.1 -
Despite having been utterly shafted the last time? Maybe you overestimate even their stupidity.HYUFD said:I would agree that Starmer could become PM if the Tories win most seats, provided Labour + LD + SNP is more than Tories + DUP and it is a hung parliament.
Johnson would also have to invoke Art 16 to get DUP support again, the DUP the only party who might still support the Tories in a hung parliament0 -
No, but it does deprive Labour or the SNP of the narrative that the Tory government in London was "uniquely useless" in combatting Covid, hence the UK having "the worst death toll in the world"TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
I still get lefty friends chanting that mantra at me, when it is not just wrong, it is howlingly wrong, a complete inversion of the truth. In terms of Covid deaths, the UK has done BETTER than most countries in the world (MUCH better than many), and has done BETTER than most of her peers in western Europe.2 -
God you are uninformed aren't you. Do you ever listen or read anything? I know ignorance is bliss and all that....Roger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?6 -
There's also the possibility that, given different unerlying populations, risks, exposures, countries generally did about enough in restrictions to keep deaths somewhere within an acceptable range taking into account also the costs. Some countries had to lock down harder to do that, some less so, which would give you apparently similar results irrespective of lockdown severity.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
I haven't looked at this in detail, but it depends, of course, on your comparison groups. Sweden, say - I have't checked this, did better than us on headline figures with fewer restrictions. But did worse than its neighbours with more restrictions. So what do we conclude?2 -
From what I'm reading, Shanghai has a similar vax profile to Hong Kong. Lots of Sinovac, and quite a lot of older vax refusers.
There is no reason Shanghai should avoid Hong Kong's fate, unless the CCP locks it down right now?
Flights are already being diverted. This is the commercial capital of China
"Shanghai is really on edge right now over accelerating Covid cases; I haven’t seen everyone this nervous since February 2020… a lot of rumors are swirling amidst the confirmed news that schools are now closed, flights are being diverted, and public events are getting canceled"
https://twitter.com/danwwang/status/1502255518185713664?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw0 -
Well British made (final assembly in Northern Ireland), but collaboration between the Swedes, the French and the British.Leon said:
It's called the NLAW, and it's BritishRoger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw1 -
Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.3 -
Agreed. I have been arguing against the 'world COVID league tables' idea since the outset. Clearly, I am not a convincing communicator.Leon said:
No, but it does deprive Labour or the SNP of the narrative that the Tory government in London was "uniquely useless" in combatting Covid, hence the UK having "the worst death toll in the world"TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
I still get lefty friends chanting that mantra at me, when it is not just wrong, it is howlingly wrong, a complete inversion of the truth. In terms of Covid deaths, the UK has done BETTER than most countries in the world (MUCH better than many), and has done BETTER than most of her peers in western Europe.
Another way of stating the above is that, when you make decisions based on probabilities, getting an adverse outcome does not make the decision bad. If there is a 90% chance of rain and you take an umbrella with you when you walk to the pub, if the 10% chance materializes and it does not rain, it does not make taking the umbrella a bad idea.3 -
That has always been a key factor missing in the blunt reporting about vaccine rates. The age profile is super important. Having 90% of 11 year olds vaccinated compared to 90% of 80 years olds is world of difference.Leon said:From what I'm reading, Shanghai has a similar vax profile to Hong Kong. Lots of Sinovac, and quite a lot of older vax refusers.
There is no reason Shanghai should avoid Hong Kong's fate, unless the CCP locks it down right now?0 -
Not post Brexit, the LDs would not support the Tories again unless they align the UK more closely to the SM and CU even if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament like 2010. The Tories won't do that as it would split the party, boost Farage and RefUK and the ERG would go beserk!Applicant said:If the numbers allow a more stable Con-led coalition than Lab-led coalition, a Con-led coalition is what we will have.
Just like in 2010.0 -
Jenkins: This appalling war is unlike most in Europe’s history in that it appears to be the will literally of one man rather than an entire country. None of Putin’s top brass are thought to have known of or supported it. Sheer terror now keeps them loyal. Yet no expert is predicting an early coup or assassination – let alone a new boyars’ plot of oligarchs sweeping into the Kremlin in gold-plated helicopters. Somehow or other, mediation is going to have to disentangle this horror on terms vaguely acceptable to Putin.
Then it will be in no one’s interest for the punitive ostracism of Russia to continue a moment longer, on the spurious grounds that ordinary Russians somehow “allowed” Putin to invade Ukraine. Punishing losers is a counter-productive outcome of war. It’s worth remembering the economic devastation and humiliation of Germany after 1918, or Russia after 1989. Ukraine will have to rebuild. So too will Russia. This is not kindness, just common sense.
2 -
OK, perhaps "pointless" is an exaggeration. But certainly not worth the cost.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.0 -
Can't the West send them a tsunami of PROPER vaccinations that actually, you know, work?Leon said:From what I'm reading, Shanghai has a similar vax profile to Hong Kong. Lots of Sinovac, and quite a lot of older vax refusers.
There is no reason Shanghai should avoid Hong Kong's fate, unless the CCP locks it down right now?
Flights are already being diverted. This is the commercial capital of China
"Shanghai is really on edge right now over accelerating Covid cases; I haven’t seen everyone this nervous since February 2020… a lot of rumors are swirling amidst the confirmed news that schools are now closed, flights are being diverted, and public events are getting canceled"
https://twitter.com/danwwang/status/1502255518185713664?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
All they have to do in return is stop being so nice to that Mr Putin.....1 -
Karma will eventually arrive to reward your party’s pig-headed stupidity.HYUFD said:
Not post Brexit, the LDs would not support the Tories again unless they align the UK more closely to the SM and CU even if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament like 2010. The Tories won't do that as it would split the party, boost Farage and RefUK and the ERG would go beserk!Applicant said:If the numbers allow a more stable Con-led coalition than Lab-led coalition, a Con-led coalition is what we will have.
Just like in 2010.1 -
UK made. NI ...FrancisUrquhart said:
Well British made (final assembly in Northern Ireland), but collaboration between the Swedes, the French and the British.Leon said:
It's called the NLAW, and it's BritishRoger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw1 -
We're all still here, so I think it's OK ... for now.solarflare said:
For fuck's sake, NOT NOW INDIAwilliamglenn said:India has accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan.
@shreyadhoundial
Just IN : Govt of India statement on the ' Missile Incident ' raised by Pakistan
* During regular mantainance a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. It landed in Pakistan.
* A high-level Court of Enquiry ordered.
* Incident deeply regrettable
https://twitter.com/shreyadhoundial/status/15022721871638773822 -
'Team GB' made?Carnyx said:
UK made. NI ...FrancisUrquhart said:
Well British made (final assembly in Northern Ireland), but collaboration between the Swedes, the French and the British.Leon said:
It's called the NLAW, and it's BritishRoger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
2 -
That is a valid opinion based on what you value, but not a fact.Applicant said:
OK, perhaps "pointless" is an exaggeration. But certainly not worth the cost.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.0 -
There is another level of complexity: the variantsglw said:
Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
Classic Covid, the original, was a lumbering beast compared to the updated versions. It probably WAS stopped by surgical masks and 2m distancing etc
It is estimated that Omicron BA2 is TWENTY TIMES more transmissible than that first version. Possibly masks - certainly anything less than a well fitted FFP2 - offer no protection at all against Omicron. Hong Kong - highly mask friendly - suggests that might be the case
There might not be any NPI - short of total solitary isolation in an underground cell for years - which mitigates against Omicron Plus-1 -
On a cheerier note - now you're here - I don't know if you'd gone to bed by the time I replied last night but you were spot on with Castlerigg!Leon said:
China has a high level of vaccination, but they used a lot of Sinovac (useless against Omicron).Cookie said:FPT:
I was speculating on this the other day.Leon said:
Now multiply that by a thousand if omicron goes to work in China. As it might already be doing.CarlottaVance said:Grim
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has asked the public to understand its difficulties with saturated mortuaries amid the city’s Covid-19 crisis, as an image of bodies lying next to living patients on a hospital ward surfaced online.
https://hongkongfp.com/2022/03/11/covid-19-hong-kong-hospital-authority-urges-understanding-as-shocking-photo-emerges-of-bodies-stored-on-ward/
https://twitter.com/tomgrundy/status/1502229988481052674
“Mainland China reported over 1,000 new COVID-19 infections in dozens of cities, the highest daily count in about two years, with the Omicron variant forcing a northeastern city to go under lockdown and the financial hub Shanghai to close schools.”
https://twitter.com/reuters_health/status/1502264336911376387?s=21
Will Omicron get to China? Almost certainly - you can't lockdown your way out of this one.
Will it result in major health problems? I had thought not - Omicron being mild and all that - but maybe HK gives the lie to that. Does HK have issues with vaccines (takeup/mix of vaccines (is Sinovac any good?)/how boosted are they?) Do the same things apply in China? But even if it does strike, my expectation is that it won't strike hard for long - a peak, and then waning by four weeks later.
Will the Chinese state's response have implications? Quite probably. They are still apparently wedded to zero covid. They will try to lockdown their way out of it. This could by March 2020 on steroids for them. Conceivably they could try to bring China to a complete standstill.
Which would be something of a nuisance for the already precarious world economy - but could also have an ameliorative effect on fuel prices and other commodities.
They are now boostering as fast as they can (presumably with MRNA?), but they've only got to 35% or so
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Quite possible they could see a Hong Kong type situation in multiple cities. A short, sharp pretty hideous shock, and a lot of dead old people
HK has a a real problem with older vax refuseniks; not sure if that is the case on the mainland0 -
Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!0 -
Lefties will be lefties. I get the same with ScotNats. Apparently Nicola scowling at us for 2 years had a huge impact - scared the lurgy away.Leon said:
No, but it does deprive Labour or the SNP of the narrative that the Tory government in London was "uniquely useless" in combatting Covid, hence the UK having "the worst death toll in the world"TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
I still get lefty friends chanting that mantra at me, when it is not just wrong, it is howlingly wrong, a complete inversion of the truth. In terms of Covid deaths, the UK has done BETTER than most countries in the world (MUCH better than many), and has done BETTER than most of her peers in western Europe.
Enlightening thread on the Lancet report here:
https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1502227961084264450
Rates:
W. Europe: 140.0 (133.5-146.3)
Italy: 227.4 (212.0-242.5)
Portugal: 202.2 (190.7-212.2)
Spain: 186.7 (181.3-191.5)
Belgium: 146.6 (135.8-156.3)
Netherlands: 140.0 (131.3-147.6)
UK: 126.8(122.3-130.9) Eng. 125.8(122.1-128.7)
France: 124.2 (120.5-127.7)
Germany: 120.5 (115.1-125.1)
Absolute numbers:
Italy: 259000
Germany : 203000
UK: 169000 (England: 142000)
Spain: 162000
France: 1550003 -
Actually British made i.e. all the major components, missile etc are made in Britain. Mostly, Plymouth, Glenrothes, Basingstoke, but also Coventry, Gateshead, Bristol and Birmingham. Just final assembly is in Belfast, NI.Carnyx said:
UK made. NI ...FrancisUrquhart said:
Well British made (final assembly in Northern Ireland), but collaboration between the Swedes, the French and the British.Leon said:
It's called the NLAW, and it's BritishRoger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw2 -
Yes that's a good point too. The coronavirus is now due to mutation perhaps the most transmissible virus in medical history, with a high reproduction rate and a short serial interval it just goes through populations like a wildfire.Leon said:There is another level of complexity: the variants
Classic Covid, the original, was a lumbering beast compared to the updated versions. It probably WAS stopped by surgical masks and 2m distancing etc
It is estimated that Omicron BA2 is TWENTY TIMES more transmissible than that first version. Possibly masks - certainly anything less than a well fitted FFP2 - offer no protection at all against Omicron. Hong Kong - highly mask friendly - suggests that might be the case
There might not be any NPI - short of total solitary isolation in an underground cell for years - which mitigates against Omicron Plus0 -
Some sanctions are based on wishful thinking. Putin's not going to reverse ferret because Chelsea face relegation. We need, or Ukraine needs, to find a form of words that Putin can present as victory, because otherwise he will grind away till Ukraine is a pile of rubble.IanB2 said:Jenkins: This appalling war is unlike most in Europe’s history in that it appears to be the will literally of one man rather than an entire country. None of Putin’s top brass are thought to have known of or supported it. Sheer terror now keeps them loyal. Yet no expert is predicting an early coup or assassination – let alone a new boyars’ plot of oligarchs sweeping into the Kremlin in gold-plated helicopters. Somehow or other, mediation is going to have to disentangle this horror on terms vaguely acceptable to Putin.
Then it will be in no one’s interest for the punitive ostracism of Russia to continue a moment longer, on the spurious grounds that ordinary Russians somehow “allowed” Putin to invade Ukraine. Punishing losers is a counter-productive outcome of war. It’s worth remembering the economic devastation and humiliation of Germany after 1918, or Russia after 1989. Ukraine will have to rebuild. So too will Russia. This is not kindness, just common sense.0 -
If they go bankrupt then they're out of the league.boulay said:Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!0 -
However under Putin or similar the West must reduce and then eliminate dependency on Russian fossil fuels and resources exports. We will also have to limit Russian access to technology. Their economy will still collapse as China will also have to tack more West. Why? China needs to sustain high growth levels or its current strategy will implode. They can only do so via a lot of trade and economic and academic exchanges with the West.IanB2 said:Jenkins: This appalling war is unlike most in Europe’s history in that it appears to be the will literally of one man rather than an entire country. None of Putin’s top brass are thought to have known of or supported it. Sheer terror now keeps them loyal. Yet no expert is predicting an early coup or assassination – let alone a new boyars’ plot of oligarchs sweeping into the Kremlin in gold-plated helicopters. Somehow or other, mediation is going to have to disentangle this horror on terms vaguely acceptable to Putin.
Then it will be in no one’s interest for the punitive ostracism of Russia to continue a moment longer, on the spurious grounds that ordinary Russians somehow “allowed” Putin to invade Ukraine. Punishing losers is a counter-productive outcome of war. It’s worth remembering the economic devastation and humiliation of Germany after 1918, or Russia after 1989. Ukraine will have to rebuild. So too will Russia. This is not kindness, just common sense.0 -
Britain, as opposed to Great Britain, is synonymous with the UK, or at least it was till Boris started referring to the UK all the time as some sort of penance for selling out Northern Ireland over the Irish Sea border.FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually British made i.e. all the major components, missile etc are made in Britain. Mostly, Plymouth, Glenrothes, Basingstoke, but also Coventry, Gateshead, Bristol and Birmingham. Just final assembly is in Belfast, NI.Carnyx said:
UK made. NI ...FrancisUrquhart said:
Well British made (final assembly in Northern Ireland), but collaboration between the Swedes, the French and the British.Leon said:
It's called the NLAW, and it's BritishRoger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw0 -
And only two relegated this season? One if Everton follow them?tlg86 said:
If they go bankrupt then they're out of the league.boulay said:Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!
Betting implications? (None on Norwich, obvs.....#Doomed)
0 -
Ha, thanks.Cookie said:
On a cheerier note - now you're here - I don't know if you'd gone to bed by the time I replied last night but you were spot on with Castlerigg!Leon said:
China has a high level of vaccination, but they used a lot of Sinovac (useless against Omicron).Cookie said:FPT:
I was speculating on this the other day.Leon said:
Now multiply that by a thousand if omicron goes to work in China. As it might already be doing.CarlottaVance said:Grim
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has asked the public to understand its difficulties with saturated mortuaries amid the city’s Covid-19 crisis, as an image of bodies lying next to living patients on a hospital ward surfaced online.
https://hongkongfp.com/2022/03/11/covid-19-hong-kong-hospital-authority-urges-understanding-as-shocking-photo-emerges-of-bodies-stored-on-ward/
https://twitter.com/tomgrundy/status/1502229988481052674
“Mainland China reported over 1,000 new COVID-19 infections in dozens of cities, the highest daily count in about two years, with the Omicron variant forcing a northeastern city to go under lockdown and the financial hub Shanghai to close schools.”
https://twitter.com/reuters_health/status/1502264336911376387?s=21
Will Omicron get to China? Almost certainly - you can't lockdown your way out of this one.
Will it result in major health problems? I had thought not - Omicron being mild and all that - but maybe HK gives the lie to that. Does HK have issues with vaccines (takeup/mix of vaccines (is Sinovac any good?)/how boosted are they?) Do the same things apply in China? But even if it does strike, my expectation is that it won't strike hard for long - a peak, and then waning by four weeks later.
Will the Chinese state's response have implications? Quite probably. They are still apparently wedded to zero covid. They will try to lockdown their way out of it. This could by March 2020 on steroids for them. Conceivably they could try to bring China to a complete standstill.
Which would be something of a nuisance for the already precarious world economy - but could also have an ameliorative effect on fuel prices and other commodities.
They are now boostering as fast as they can (presumably with MRNA?), but they've only got to 35% or so
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Quite possible they could see a Hong Kong type situation in multiple cities. A short, sharp pretty hideous shock, and a lot of dead old people
HK has a a real problem with older vax refuseniks; not sure if that is the case on the mainland
I know roughly where you live, and I know that Castlerigg is indeed amazing, so it wasn't that hard to guess (given that I am obsessed with megaliths, and visit them whenever I can)
1 -
"Russia's is moving to ban Instagram, which seemed inevitable – and wants to have Meta, the parent company, declared an "extremist organization."
Even in the context of wartime repression, this is astonishing – it basically likens Facebook to al-Qaeda."
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15022535908151541791 -
Yep.glw said:
Yes that's a good point too. The coronavirus is now due to mutation perhaps the most transmissible virus in medical history, with a high reproduction rate and a short serial interval it just goes through populations like a wildfire.Leon said:There is another level of complexity: the variants
Classic Covid, the original, was a lumbering beast compared to the updated versions. It probably WAS stopped by surgical masks and 2m distancing etc
It is estimated that Omicron BA2 is TWENTY TIMES more transmissible than that first version. Possibly masks - certainly anything less than a well fitted FFP2 - offer no protection at all against Omicron. Hong Kong - highly mask friendly - suggests that might be the case
There might not be any NPI - short of total solitary isolation in an underground cell for years - which mitigates against Omicron Plus
Tho the Chinese are still trying to keep it out: desperately building quarantine camps in Shanghai, and now closing all schools, museums, galleries, etc. And diverting flights - from their own commercial capital
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502274934868877312?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
They know it is going to be bad. They will surely lockdown Shanghai completely?1 -
Well they have certainly radicalised more people than Al-Qaeda....MarqueeMark said:"Russia's is moving to ban Instagram, which seemed inevitable – and wants to have Meta, the parent company, declared an "extremist organization."
Even in the context of wartime repression, this is astonishing – it basically likens Facebook to al-Qaeda."
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15022535908151541792 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-39282487MarqueeMark said:
And only two relegated this season? One if Everton follow them?tlg86 said:
If they go bankrupt then they're out of the league.boulay said:Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!
Betting implications? (None on Norwich, obvs.....#Doomed)
A man who sued Coral for not paying out £250,000 on a bet that Rangers would be relegated has lost his legal fight.
Albert Kinloch, 72, placed £100 at 2,500/1 on the Ibrox club being relegated from the Scottish Premier League (SPL) in the 2011/12 season.
Quite how Betfair would handle such a situation, I don't know...0 -
Given the damage Facebook's algorithms can do to the "news" on someone's newsfeed after clicking a couple of dubious links I agree with Russia.MarqueeMark said:"Russia's is moving to ban Instagram, which seemed inevitable – and wants to have Meta, the parent company, declared an "extremist organization."
Even in the context of wartime repression, this is astonishing – it basically likens Facebook to al-Qaeda."
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15022535908151541793 -
All international flights to Shanghai banned for six weeks
https://twitter.com/BrockmeyerHado/status/1502285189023768587?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw1 -
Mykolaiv governor Vitaly Kim: "We have offered the Russian forces near the city to surrender to us. In 1-2 days, we will know their answer."
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/15022431660066898041 -
What would happen in these circumstances?tlg86 said:
If they go bankrupt then they're out of the league.boulay said:Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!
1. Receivers appointed.
2. Bankruptcy.
3. One hour later, new owners appointed who meet all debts and liabilities apart from loans to Abramovich.
0 -
It seems to me as if the case for NPIs rested on an unspoken assumption that the graph of transmission vs mobility reduction looked something like this:glw said:
Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:
4 -
Probably nothing.Leon said:All international flights to Shanghai banned for six weeks
https://twitter.com/BrockmeyerHado/status/1502285189023768587?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw0 -
4 out of how many? I have no idea how significant that it.Chameleon said:Looks like we're now up to 4 dead Russian generals (including the Chechen warlord).
Meanwhile in Kherson they're going house to house rounding up anyone with links to the Ukrainian government/police/defence forces: https://twitter.com/kherradio/status/15022412156511354881 -
I don't believe that even the Grauniad would report that.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Can someone explain how a drone that cannot carry weapons can launch an armed attack?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-1411 -
It wasn't a Turkish drone - for which the war has been a tremendous ad.Roger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
(Though I realise the Bayraktar camerawork probably isn't up to your standards.)
0 -
I wonder how significant that loan from Abramovich is? Did he do it as a loan, rather than simply as a gift, for precisely this scenario?NorthofStoke said:
What would happen in these circumstances?tlg86 said:
If they go bankrupt then they're out of the league.boulay said:Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!
1. Receivers appointed.
2. Bankruptcy.
3. One hour later, new owners appointed who meet all debts and liabilities apart from loans to Abramovich.0 -
The latest Economist model has Germany 123k excess deaths, France 107k, Italy 191k, Spain 121k, Britain 151k, so a bit lower in all cases? Britain looks a little bit worse in comparison terms in the economist model. Seems nobody can even agree on excess death numbers! Probably even differences of 30% can't be put down to any specific policies, if you plotted a graph of the whole world the closest correlation might just be percentage of old people in the population - with some interesting outliersBurgessian said:
Lefties will be lefties. I get the same with ScotNats. Apparently Nicola scowling at us for 2 years had a huge impact - scared the lurgy away.Leon said:
No, but it does deprive Labour or the SNP of the narrative that the Tory government in London was "uniquely useless" in combatting Covid, hence the UK having "the worst death toll in the world"TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
I still get lefty friends chanting that mantra at me, when it is not just wrong, it is howlingly wrong, a complete inversion of the truth. In terms of Covid deaths, the UK has done BETTER than most countries in the world (MUCH better than many), and has done BETTER than most of her peers in western Europe.
Enlightening thread on the Lancet report here:
https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1502227961084264450
Rates:
W. Europe: 140.0 (133.5-146.3)
Italy: 227.4 (212.0-242.5)
Portugal: 202.2 (190.7-212.2)
Spain: 186.7 (181.3-191.5)
Belgium: 146.6 (135.8-156.3)
Netherlands: 140.0 (131.3-147.6)
UK: 126.8(122.3-130.9) Eng. 125.8(122.1-128.7)
France: 124.2 (120.5-127.7)
Germany: 120.5 (115.1-125.1)
Absolute numbers:
Italy: 259000
Germany : 203000
UK: 169000 (England: 142000)
Spain: 162000
France: 155000
Generally, I think if we're smart we can learn different things from different countries that did certain things well - some of the best examples will be from outside Europe though.2 -
Interesting SCMP article on Omicron in ShanghaiFrancisUrquhart said:
Probably nothing.Leon said:All international flights to Shanghai banned for six weeks
https://twitter.com/BrockmeyerHado/status/1502285189023768587?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
https://twitter.com/PhraAthit/status/1502283981462593541?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
The locals don't seem worried, partly because "we have high levels of vaccination". They seem unaware that if they are vaxxed with Sinovac they have almost no protection
Hong Kongers are therefore skeptical:
"Shanghai, once a model city in China’s Covid-19 fightback, is tackling its biggest outbreak of the pandemic
Quarantine or isolation offer no guarantee of remaining Covid-free, notes Hong Kong-based virologist"0 -
A great performance from Blink there, goes straight into the lead.
And Sizzle takes second place!0 -
Well, I never valued a death from any cause within 28 days of a positive test for one specific respiratory virus as infinitely more important than anything else.TimT said:
That is a valid opinion based on what you value, but not a fact.Applicant said:
OK, perhaps "pointless" is an exaggeration. But certainly not worth the cost.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.0 -
This is the slightly worrying bit of the report from Hungary and Croatia's point of view.MattW said:
I don't believe that even the Grauniad would report that.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Can someone explain how a drone that cannot carry weapons can launch an armed attack?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-141
...The large drone flew at least 350 miles (560km) apparently undetected by air defences in Croatia and Hungary, both members of the western military alliance....1 -
That was a truly terrible umpiring decision. Thank God for DRS.0
-
They need to strap Roger Deakins under one!Nigelb said:
It wasn't a Turkish drone - for which the war has been a tremendous ad.Roger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
(Though I realise the Bayraktar camerawork probably isn't up to your standards.)0 -
If China starts having a really nasty outbreak to worry about, I’m guessing we need to stop hoping they’ll mediate in Ukraine and tell Putin to pack it in.Leon said:All international flights to Shanghai banned for six weeks
https://twitter.com/BrockmeyerHado/status/1502285189023768587?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
0 -
Prospects for battlefield promotion...
Russian general Andrey Kolesnikov is a “200”. Russian and Ukrainian lingo for “killed in action”.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/15022545829064335380 -
China exercising its normal light touch when it comes to lockdowns
"Changchun city, 9 millions residents.
It is in lockdown now.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1502219611265466374?t=eumEqYl8KvFosGCtoXJU3A&s=19
Chinese authority sent all 6556 students of a university off to Covid quarantine camps yesterday.
Totally more than 20 000 people were bussed away to quarantine camps yesterday."
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1502285200398553090?s=20&t=RCQN0IBjXut1uF23e4HjVQ
0 -
Wow. Just seen the front page of The Express. They've clearly decided there's a not inconsiderable market for the pro-Putin stance.0
-
If anyone is interested in the view that 'Demoralised and incompetent, Putin’s army is marching to its doom' and has 59 minutes to listen to some fairly well-informed views on that matter, this is quite good (and actually a little more balanced than the title implies):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2awysdmPhQ&t=1793s
0 -
Leon said:
It's called the NLAW, and it's BritishRoger said:
Not a great ad for Turkish drones.IshmaelZ said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Armed attack on NATO country by Ukraine on the face of it.
Sorry guys but rules are rules
Where's this war's exocet?
You're welcome, Rog
"A Ukrainian fighter - standing next to a destroyed Russian tank - tells CBS news how effective the British supplied NLAW ATGM has been in Ukraine and asks for more.🔥
🇬🇧🤝🇺🇦"
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1501504691053678595?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw
For some anti-tank and anti-aircraft manufacturers, Ukraine is all their xmases at once.
The Russians are the perfect test arena. There are loads of them, they aren't that well protected or well hidden and they aren't going anywhere.
Ukraine is also a great shop window as the world has officially designated the targets Bad People. There are few protests over the compelling footage of wreckage and dead, therefore, and these can be widely shared.
1 -
Fuse incurs two refusals; could have been a competitor.
Tikita takes second with a great final run
Blink wins this round. Grand final this evening!0 -
That's exactly my thoughts.Applicant said:
It seems to me as if the case for NPIs rested on an unspoken assumption that the graph of transmission vs mobility reduction looked something like this:glw said:
Good points. I'm sure some NPIs did work, lockdown really ought to because if you don't mix with people you can't spread the virus, but a lot of the minor NPIs really do look dubious, particularly if you are dealing with an airborne virus. Disentangling what worked from what didn't, and figuring out how effective the good measures were and why that was, will be a very important part of learning how to deal with the next pandemic.TimT said:Of course, new thread, just as I post a longer post. FPT
TimT Posts: 5,396
8:34AM edited 8:36AM
Applicant said:
» show previous quotes
5. There is no clear relationship between levels of excess mortality and different levels of restrictions/ NPIs across Western Europe or indeed the whole of Europe.
Months and months of lockdown shown to be pointless.
But in a complex adaptive system, you can't even reach that conclusion.
Two states in exactly the same starting position (as near as can be measured) implementing the exact same measures (as near as can be measured) will have different - potentially vastly different - outcomes. That does not mean to say that the measures themselves were useless, just that the sensitivity to initial conditions has a greater impact on outcomes than the measures.
Take two wooded areas of the same size and climatic conditions, and the same amount of fuel in the system. We know that for each system, removing dead undergrowth reduces the prospect of a massive wildfire resulting from a lightning strike. But, if we remove the dead wood and scrub from one wood and not the other, we still cannot predict which of the two will produce a wildfire if both are struck with lightning. If the untended wood has no fire and the tended wood does, it still does not mean that the measures taken to remove fuel from the tended wood were wrong or useless.
But in reality it seems to have been more like this - and the first inflection point was reached by voluntary action, and the second inflection point wasn't achievable in a democratic Western society:0 -
1) Appreciate everyone is very excited by the excess deaths figures. Actuarial/statistical types I know don't think a proper assessment can be made for a few years (particularly of you want to take account of delayed cancer ops, QALY etc).
2) We need better names for our military stuff in the Tiktok wars. NLAW = Frostbolt? Queen Elizabeth = Ark Royal.0 -
200? A double wrong-answer Pointless death?Nigelb said:Prospects for battlefield promotion...
Russian general Andrey Kolesnikov is a “200”. Russian and Ukrainian lingo for “killed in action”.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/15022545829064335380 -
I always assumed the loan was to dodge FFP regulations in some way. I’m now wondering if there is the potential that the loan/debt is sold to an investor in say Mid East/China and the funds buying the debt are paid into an account in a country that does not have sanctions against him.tlg86 said:
I wonder how significant that loan from Abramovich is? Did he do it as a loan, rather than simply as a gift, for precisely this scenario?NorthofStoke said:
What would happen in these circumstances?tlg86 said:
If they go bankrupt then they're out of the league.boulay said:Question for anyone who knows/understands UK bankruptcy/administration law…..
If Chelsea are, as some reports say, a couple of weeks from running out of money, is it actually more in the govt’s interests to let them go into administration and then bankruptcy than to allow a sale before then?
Mainly wondering on the basis that if they go into administration they will have points deducted but not in danger of relegation and so not overly damaging to the club, however if they can ensure that Abramovich gets as little as possible capital value for the club as possible then surely that’s the aim but I’m not sure if the rules about bankruptcy would enable that aim.
Sorry if this question makes no sense!
1. Receivers appointed.
2. Bankruptcy.
3. One hour later, new owners appointed who meet all debts and liabilities apart from loans to Abramovich.
So for example if a new buyer buys the assets of Chelsea for 1.5b but there is still a legally binding debt to (what ultimately looks like a offshore company) then at some point that debt can be called in - Abramovich never apparently intended to call it in but it can be.
So the company (1.5b Ltd) that Chelsea owes 1.5b speaks to, for example Sheik X and issues paperwork confirming they have sold the debt to Sheik X for 1b.
Conveniently 1.5b Ltd has a bank account with Emirates bank to where the proceeds are paid.
Emirates bank receives instruction to pay consultancy fees to Abman Romanovich Ltd account.
At some point in the future Sheik X calls in loan of 1.5b from Chelsea making a nice 0.5b turn.
Job done.
0 -
Probably increases their desire to do so.biggles said:
If China starts having a really nasty outbreak to worry about, I’m guessing we need to stop hoping they’ll mediate in Ukraine and tell Putin to pack it in.Leon said:All international flights to Shanghai banned for six weeks
https://twitter.com/BrockmeyerHado/status/1502285189023768587?s=20&t=4raASY-YTtbrxWsovUT4kw0
