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The fog of war – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    You're a little feisty tonight.

    In fact, scratch that. You're a little feisty.

    As usual. ;)
    Well, yes, but if you advance the idea the Highlands are defined culturally you can surely expect to be picked up on it?

    Highlands. High lands. Geddit?

    And if you take the train west out of Glasgow its only 20 minutes til you are looking out of the window and thinking fuck me that's steep
  • Carnyx said:

    Charles Lyell: The past is the key to the present.

    Or Lyell again: “I may conclude this chapter by quoting a saying of Professor Agassiz, that whenever a new and startling fact is brought to light in science, people first say, 'it is not true,' then that 'it is contrary to religion,' and lastly, 'that everybody knew it before.”

    James Hutton:
    The result, therefore, of our present enquiry is, that we find no vestige of a beginning, - no prospect of an end.
    That Agassiz quote is definitely my favourite in all branches of science. I first came across it requoted by Stephen Jay Gould in one of his essays on the history of science.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737
    Leon said:

    Thermobaric bombs is the best guess

    Either a similar bomb or the same explosion from a different angle. Ginormous


    https://twitter.com/mutahmett/status/1498022991724261385?s=20&t=5VRcrjSE8-1FHaY1x0FR0Q



    Putin has doubled down. He is going to Grozny Ukraine into submission. Hideous. Many thousands will die
    It gets harder and harder to not want to just say “fuck it, let’s go in”. Obviously there’s then a heart/head thing and we know we can’t, but I wish we could…
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,978
    Pro_Rata said:

    The Ukranian side.

    Yes, I imagine that question does need to be asked.
    The irony of your opening sentence was consequently missed.

  • Friend of mine, a university professor, has a student in one of his classes from Ukraine. This kid's family is now sheltering in a village somewhere outside Kyiv.

    Putin and his pimps must pay for that, and much more.

    By the way, would like for my fellow Democrats and others on the left to take notice, that among most notable & despicable supporters of Putin in this critical hour are - Cuba, Nicaragua & Venezuela. Along with Belarus, Syria, Burma and North Korea. True rogue's gallery.







  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,349
    HYUFD said:

    China, the UAE and India all abstained rather than vote to condemn Russia on the Security Council.

    Those are some pretty big or wealthy nations not lining up against him whatever the Assembly decides
    Abstaining is opposing when it comes to votes like that - like when a resolution on Libya was able to be passed.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    It's possible Putin is like Hitler and believes that if he can't have his greater Russia then the whole world should burn, including his own people.

    If that is the case then his inner circle need to dispatch him - quickly.

    Read the essay I posted below, which was simultaneously published by multiple Russian outlets, from more or less talking about a final solution to the Ukrainian question to the reuniting the Russian people bit it's like a cut and paste of the 1939 Reichstag speech.

    Does indicate that they expected this war to be over by now though.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    BigRich said:

    gosh!!

    Have they exploded and oil/gas storage or is that one of those very big bombs, that somebody was talking about yesterday?
    This is why I quit twitter. It is some scratchy film of a massive explosion/bomb in the nighttime, but until it is verified by a reliable source, it could have been from any number of conflicts. But we've all immediately come to the conclusion that Russia have dropped a thermobaric bomb on Ukraine.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,891

    I don't think gas or oil would go up quite like that without precursor flames?
    Night makes explosions look bigger..... If that is a secondary explosion, it is high order - you can see a shock wave.

    LNG *might* - there have been some experiment by oil companies to see if there is a FAE risk from tanks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125

    Friend of mine, a university professor, has a student in one of his classes from Ukraine. This kid's family is now sheltering in a village somewhere outside Kyiv.

    Putin and his pimps must pay for that, and much more.

    By the way, would like for my fellow Democrats and others on the left to take notice, that among most notable & despicable supporters of Putin in this critical hour are - Cuba, Nicaragua & Venezuela. Along with Belarus, Syria, Burma and North Korea. True rogue's gallery.

    This will leave Venezuela and North Korea even more isolated and even more dependent on China for survival. North Korea, in particular, may be hit by a tanking Russian economy given how reliant they are on money from their expat workers in Russia.

    Goodness knows where it leaves Assad. Hopefully somewhere nasty.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022

    It's possible Putin is like Hitler and believes that if he can't have his greater Russia then the whole world should burn, including his own people.

    If that is the case then his inner circle need to dispatch him - quickly.

    It's very possible and immensely dangerous, but it could also be something that started as a plan for some sort of giant and theatrical bluff, and somehow became more real.

    We are in the twilight zone.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    Leon said:

    Deal. I will only promote the good ones
    You'll be very quiet, then. ;)
  • Chameleon said:

    Read the essay I posted below, which was simultaneously published by multiple Russian outlets, from more or less talking about a final solution to the Ukrainian question to the reuniting the Russian people bit it's like a cut and paste of the 1939 Reichstag speech.

    Does indicate that they expected this war to be over by now though.
    I'm unclear if it's B or F we are on, but it is certainly not Plan A
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,884
    darkage said:

    This is why I quit twitter. It is some scratchy film of a massive explosion/bomb in the nighttime, but until it is verified by a reliable source, it could have been from any number of conflicts. But we've all immediately come to the conclusion that Russia have dropped a thermobaric bomb on Ukraine.
    It's a reasonable perspective.

    The flipside - which I agree may or may not apply in this instance - is that shedloads of stuff on twitter has turned out to be absolutely reliable but a lot of the big news organisations are taking quite a long time to report it as such given the verification checks needed. So you pays your money and you take your choice sort of thing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Eabhal said:

    Ah, but would you consider Aberdeenshire/Laich of Moray the Highlands?

    I generally feel there is big change in the feel of the hills north of Tyndrum. South of there they don't really feel like the Highlands to me, but I'm biased.

    The Cairngorms have got their own vibe, which I'm starting to really appreciate as I get older. The low level walks/runs are just superb.

    I'm sure this all explained by the underlying geology.
    It is; Aberdeenshire, Mearns, Angus, Moray, Nairn are as you observe north of the HBF. But they are
    in large part sedimentary deposits (Old Red Sandstone and Permo-Triassic) fringing the Highland massif - but on the west and southwest the sea cuts deep into the massif, hence the fjords and nice deep hills to burrow bunkers into. Believe me, the Highlands begin at Loch Lomond (and, for Edinbuggers, the Trossachs).
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    darkage said:

    This is why I quit twitter. It is some scratchy film of a massive explosion/bomb in the nighttime, but until it is verified by a reliable source, it could have been from any number of conflicts. But we've all immediately come to the conclusion that Russia have dropped a thermobaric bomb on Ukraine.
    It's been geolocated:

    https://twitter.com/john_marquee/status/1498041255699247104
    https://twitter.com/gianfiorella/status/1498042079825436674
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Eabhal said:

    In my experience the English tend to be pretty knowledgeable about the Highlands. They go on holiday, and they fall in love.

    Indeed, Skye is basically the Home Counties + plus mad Dutch drivers nowadays.

    I know what JJ means. Argyll is distinct from Assynt. Perthshire from the Cuillin. Speyside from Caithness.
    That fucking bridge was the worst mistake in the history of civil engineering. I am a Hilleary btw so not in need of guidance on the whole Skye thang.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989
    IshmaelZ said:

    Well, yes, but if you advance the idea the Highlands are defined culturally you can surely expect to be picked up on it?

    Highlands. High lands. Geddit?

    And if you take the train west out of Glasgow its only 20 minutes til you are looking out of the window and thinking fuck me that's steep
    I'm from "the Highlands" and I'd struggle to consider Ben Lomond in them, tbh. Far too southern ;)

    I'm sure JJ knows them better than 90% of Scots, based on past posts.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    IshmaelZ said:

    Well, yes, but if you advance the idea the Highlands are defined culturally you can surely expect to be picked up on it?

    Highlands. High lands. Geddit?

    And if you take the train west out of Glasgow its only 20 minutes til you are looking out of the window and thinking fuck me that's steep
    Things are defined in many ways. That's the point.

    Take Derbyshire. A middling-sized county in the middle of England. Yet Glossop, in the north, is *very* different from Swadlincote in the south. They are both in 'Derbyshire', but very different in a number of ways. And the Peak District between them is different again.

    It takes one and a half to two hours to travel between them. They might as well be in different counties.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Someone, somewhere needs to find a way to stop escalating this. Is there anyone with a cool head?
  • Eabhal said:

    I'm from "the Highlands" and I'd struggle to consider Ben Lomond in them, tbh. Far too southern ;)

    I'm sure JJ knows them better than 90% of Scots, based on past posts.
    Which part are you from?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    IshmaelZ said:

    That fucking bridge was the worst mistake in the history of civil engineering. I am a Hilleary btw so not in need of guidance on the whole Skye thang.
    Yet the Kylesku Bridge is a thing of unalloyed beauty. Concrete and terrain in perfect harmony.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,492
    Scott_xP said:

    sclerotic

    EU announces it has agreed unanimously amongst all member countries to take in Ukrainian refugees fir up to 3 years without asking them to first apply for asylum. Just been announced following a meeting of EU Interior ministers
    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1498017173792514051

    Tories will be delighted that we have left the EU so won’t be party to the agreement.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    Leon said:

    Thermobaric bombs is the best guess

    Either a similar bomb or the same explosion from a different angle. Ginormous


    https://twitter.com/mutahmett/status/1498022991724261385?s=20&t=5VRcrjSE8-1FHaY1x0FR0Q



    Putin has doubled down. He is going to Grozny Ukraine into submission. Hideous. Many thousands will die
    The Ukrainians have shoulder launched thermobaric weapons and I'm sure will get to use them. In fact lots of countries do have them in some shape or form, including the UK,. The Russians have just taken it to a scale.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Someone, somewhere needs to find a way to stop escalating this. Is there anyone with a cool head?

    Zelenskiy, going on his words today. The daylight to Putin's night, if he can sustain that moderate stance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,337
    darkage said:

    This is why I quit twitter. It is some scratchy film of a massive explosion/bomb in the nighttime, but until it is verified by a reliable source, it could have been from any number of conflicts. But we've all immediately come to the conclusion that Russia have dropped a thermobaric bomb on Ukraine.
    No one has immediately "come to the conclusion", but a lot of people are speculating on Twitter, and much of the speculation is from well-informed military types, who are already analysing the perspectives, light effects shock waves and so on

    And this speculation is not some wild frenzy of "OMG this is tactical nukes!" (which you could argue, given the slightly scary mushroom cloud effect, and the sheer size of the explosion), it is careful and forensic, in the circs

    We know Putin has been preparing these weapons for Ukraine:

    Video of a Russian military column reportedly near the town of Okhynky, on the highway between Kyiv and Sumy. There’s a TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS.
    https://t.me/milinfolive/77159

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497839062132183042?s=20&t=zvoiF5DHlXstuVSYOzqClw

    Why would he not use them if the war as it stands is not going to plan?

    A thermobaric warhead seems the best guess and/or a hit on an oil/ammo dump
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    Abstaining is opposing when it comes to votes like that - like when a resolution on Libya was able to be passed.
    No it is abstaining.

    If they were opposing they would have voted for the resolution to deplore Putin's actions as we, the USA, France and 8 other UN Security Council members did.

    Russia of course vetoed it anyway, so it was not like the Libya resolution where there was no veto used
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Yet the Kylesku Bridge is a thing of unalloyed beauty. Concrete and terrain in perfect harmony.
    Sure. It's not the bridge itself, it's what comes over it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989
    IshmaelZ said:

    That fucking bridge was the worst mistake in the history of civil engineering. I am a Hilleary btw so not in need of guidance on the whole Skye thang.
    I remember my parents paying the toll on it.

    It's a stunning bridge.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,515
    Jonathan said:

    Someone, somewhere needs to find a way to stop escalating this. Is there anyone with a cool head?

    Wouldn't look for one on PB to be honest. Most here are crying havoc and letting slip the dogs of war. Virtual dogs mind, I don't think anyone's joined the legion. But they are doing their bit by getting jolly cross and socking it to that PJohnson character in no uncertain terms.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Jonathan said:

    Someone, somewhere needs to find a way to stop escalating this. Is there anyone with a cool head?

    The ONLY way is to take Putin out.
    He will not hold back or stop.
    He is deranged and knows if he fails it is the end for him.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989

    Which part are you from?
    Mainly a non-High bit.

  • Travis Akers
    @travisakers
    Pravda Brewery, based in Lviv, Ukraine, has suspended its beer brewing operations and is now making Molotov cocktails for residents to use against invading Russian forces.

    The labels on the bottles say “Putin is a dickhead.”

    https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1497754605865684992
  • Chameleon said:

    It's been geolocated:

    https://twitter.com/john_marquee/status/1498041255699247104
    https://twitter.com/gianfiorella/status/1498042079825436674
    Ammo store. Could be a more typical primary explosion.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    HYUFD said:

    No it is abstaining.

    If they were opposing they would have voted for the resolution to deplore Putin's actions as we, the USA, France and 8 other UN Security Council members did.

    Russia of course vetoed it anyway, so it was not like the Libya resolution where there was no veto used
    And. It probably took some hard work to get PRC on board. Although it seems they've been as blindsided by it too.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sure. It's not the bridge itself, it's what comes over it.
    You're either talking about the tourists who support the otherwise paltry economy, or the English.
  • Eabhal said:

    Mainly a non-High bit.
    Wick?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Eabhal said:

    You're either talking about the tourists who support the otherwise paltry economy, or the English.
    Yes.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    It's a reasonable perspective.

    The flipside - which I agree may or may not apply in this instance - is that shedloads of stuff on twitter has turned out to be absolutely reliable but a lot of the big news organisations are taking quite a long time to report it as such given the verification checks needed. So you pays your money and you take your choice sort of thing.
    Yes, fair enough. I agree. I guess I am happy to let other people find stuff on twitter and find out about it later on, after some verification has gone on. Otherwise you cannot tell what is real or otherwise.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Is there anything to stop Ukrainian jets flying in from Nato territory? Someone did mention refueling might be going on over some of the neighbouring states.

    Also is there any way the Ukrainians might be able to take the thermobaric weapons - possibly with drone strikes?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989

    Wick?
    I wish!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes.
    Ah.

    As long as they drive on the right side of the road, I don't mind at all.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398


    Travis Akers
    @travisakers
    Pravda Brewery, based in Lviv, Ukraine, has suspended its beer brewing operations and is now making Molotov cocktails for residents to use against invading Russian forces.

    The labels on the bottles say “Putin is a dickhead.”

    https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1497754605865684992

    Another example of excellent propoganda.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,963
    Eabhal said:

    I wish!
    Dying of radioactive poisoning or dying of boredom in Wick is a tough call.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    Eabhal said:

    Ah.

    As long as they drive on the right side of the road, I don't mind at all.
    Surely it would be better if they drove on the left?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,549
    edited February 2022

    My understanding is that it's the airspace to any Russian carrier.
    Still plenty of Asian carriers running over Russia from Asia to Western Europe.

    But from Russia itself a lot of planes taking a roundabout route from the Caucasus to Moscow over the Caspian Sea and skirting Kazakhstan, steering very, very wide of Ukraine and very little going West <-> Russia.

    Edit: KL856 is over Kazakhstan. That explains it....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737

    Is there anything to stop Ukrainian jets flying in from Nato territory? Someone did mention refueling might be going on over some of the neighbouring states.

    Also is there any way the Ukrainians might be able to take the thermobaric weapons - possibly with drone strikes?

    We won’t be able to refuel their kit, partly because of comparability but also because of training. It’s not something you do without practicing.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Russian police are starting to lose control of antiwar protests back home:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2pwhd/russian_protestors_starting_to_protect_each_other/

    Meanwhile Kharkiv and Kyiv still in Ukrainian hands. Russian stockmarket looks to melt down on Monday. Putin is really in danger of the whole thing backfiring. An intervention by a major Western power - say the RAF enforcing a no-fly zone - could really make the difference between a Russian Ukraine and the end of Putin.

    Our policy makers should think about how Putin murdered British citizens on British soil and how now is their chance to ensure appropriate consequences.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,337
    Eabhal said:

    I remember my parents paying the toll on it.

    It's a stunning bridge.
    It's a lovely bridge. It positively vaults from Kyle to Skye, like a prancing stag (surely deliberate?); if you had to have a bridge, this is about as good as it gets.

    And yet it is sad as well. "Over the sea to Skye" means so much less now you can drive it in 2 minutes. I loved that wait in Kyle for the ferry.

    And it ruins the peerless sea-landscape around Gavin Maxwell's little island, right under the concrete.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834

    The rounded face could be either Botox or steroids..
    Nah, he has always looked like that.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,750
    edited February 2022
    Aslan said:

    Russian police are starting to lose control of antiwar protests back home:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2pwhd/russian_protestors_starting_to_protect_each_other/

    Meanwhile Kharkiv and Kyiv still in Ukrainian hands. Russian stockmarket looks to melt down on Monday. Putin is really in danger of the whole thing backfiring. An intervention by a major Western power - say the RAF enforcing a no-fly zone - could really make the difference between a Russian Ukraine and the end of Putin.

    Our policy makers should think about how Putin murdered British citizens on British soil and how now is their chance to ensure appropriate consequences.

    What should NATO do if an RAF fighter was shot down over Ukraine?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Nah, he has always looked like that.
    No, he is definitely more moon faced now than in the iconic bare chested on a horse photo
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,337
    DavidL said:

    Dying of radioactive poisoning or dying of boredom in Wick is a tough call.
    As we all know, for one guy, being actually and cruelly beheaded by the Taliban is better than LIVING in Wick, and, frankly. he has a point. I went there for one day in summer and I would have preferred to lose my sense of sight for two weeks. Imagine a LIFE there

    "I’d rather risk beheading by Taliban than live in Wick"

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/8113251/afghanistan-refugee-taliban-scotland/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,632

    Massive Russian convoy seen outside Kyiv

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gDmMVzjIVw

    Outside Kyiv being 60km away?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989
    Foxy said:

    Nah, he has always looked like that.
    To me, his face (particularly the nose) is completely different now.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    What would you recommend NATO doing if an RAF fighter was shot down over Ukraine?
    Add more airforces to shoot down Russian planes.
  • Outside Kyiv being 60km away?
    Not good this is a massive 3.5 mile convoy...putin is getting serious...pray tonight for the citizens of kiev
  • Farooq said:

    And you described Cyclefree's article yesterday as pompous?
    Cyclefree can only dream of the poetry of ‘like a prancing stag’.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,337
    Foxy said:

    Nah, he has always looked like that.
    He really hasn't. He has a new football-shaped face

    Young Putin was quite cheekboney

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Outside Kyiv being 60km away?
    Technically everything not currently in Kyiv is outside of Kyiv tbf.
  • Aslan said:

    Russian police are starting to lose control of antiwar protests back home:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2pwhd/russian_protestors_starting_to_protect_each_other/

    Meanwhile Kharkiv and Kyiv still in Ukrainian hands. Russian stockmarket looks to melt down on Monday. Putin is really in danger of the whole thing backfiring. An intervention by a major Western power - say the RAF enforcing a no-fly zone - could really make the difference between a Russian Ukraine and the end of Putin.

    Our policy makers should think about how Putin murdered British citizens on British soil and how now is their chance to ensure appropriate consequences.

    Putin is waiting for the right moment to attack Kiev and is doing well in the south of ukraine
  • Jonathan said:

    Someone, somewhere needs to find a way to stop escalating this. Is there anyone with a cool head?

    Xi Jinping? Like supporting Russia against the US and setting a precedent that he could invade Taiwan must have seemed like a clever idea at the time, but the precedent part isn't exacly going to plan, and you can't retake Taiwan if nuclear armageddon has eliminated all life on earth.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    PJohnson said:

    Putin is waiting for the right moment to attack Kiev and is doing well in the south of ukraine
    Oh look PB's relevant Putin cuck.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    PJohnson said:

    Not good this is a massive 3.5 mile convoy...putin is getting serious...pray tonight for the citizens of kiev
    Pray tonight for the drone operators taking out that convoy.

    And the families of those incinerated in it.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359

    What would you recommend NATO doing if an RAF fighter was shot down over Ukraine?
    Well the RAF couldn't enforce that on their own. Do not assume, however, that a de facto no fly could not come into effect in the west of Ukraine at some point. NATO have kitted for it, lets put it that way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,175
    Aslan said:

    Add more airforces to shoot down Russian planes.
    Frankly I was hoping for another 20-30 years of life rather than dying in a nuclear holocaust before the summer.
  • Wouldn't look for one on PB to be honest. Most here are crying havoc and letting slip the dogs of war. Virtual dogs mind, I don't think anyone's joined the legion. But they are doing their bit by getting jolly cross and socking it to that PJohnson character in no uncertain terms.
    Lol mate I'm just trying to be realistic but my views don't seem to be welcome
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,349
    HYUFD said:

    No it is abstaining.

    If they were opposing they would have voted for the resolution to deplore Putin's actions as we, the USA, France and 8 other UN Security Council members did.

    Russia of course vetoed it anyway, so it was not like the Libya resolution where there was no veto used
    I don't know why I am bothering, but not everything is to be taken literally. Would you believe I am aware that an abstention is not literally opposing?. The point, which is pretty obvious, was that for a nation like China to not vote against was itself a message to Russia.

    The comparison with Libya was not that no one vetoed that one, but that several who did not vote for it made it clear they would be against what did end up happening in terms of the campaign and was expected to happen, but their actions in not voting against made it clear they were happy to not stand in its way even if they did not endorse it.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    No one has immediately "come to the conclusion", but a lot of people are speculating on Twitter, and much of the speculation is from well-informed military types, who are already analysing the perspectives, light effects shock waves and so on

    And this speculation is not some wild frenzy of "OMG this is tactical nukes!" (which you could argue, given the slightly scary mushroom cloud effect, and the sheer size of the explosion), it is careful and forensic, in the circs

    We know Putin has been preparing these weapons for Ukraine:

    Video of a Russian military column reportedly near the town of Okhynky, on the highway between Kyiv and Sumy. There’s a TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS.
    https://t.me/milinfolive/77159

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497839062132183042?s=20&t=zvoiF5DHlXstuVSYOzqClw

    Why would he not use them if the war as it stands is not going to plan?

    A thermobaric warhead seems the best guess and/or a hit on an oil/ammo dump
    I came to the 'OMG thermobaric bomb' conclusion myself. But it actually looks like an ammo dump. And now it turns out from Yokes that everyone has thermobaric bombs anyway, including us. Ultimately, I don't have a clue. I am in no position whatsoever to interpret these videos that go viral on twitter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,175
    edited February 2022
    Leon said:

    He really hasn't. He has a new football-shaped face

    Young Putin was quite cheekboney

    Mrs P thinks he looks like he's got Parkinson's.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,750
    Aslan said:

    Add more airforces to shoot down Russian planes.
    And when more are shot down? Russia is not Iraq. They have S-400s, actual high technology.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,989
    Yokes said:

    Well the RAF couldn't enforce that on their own. Do not assume, however, that a de facto no fly could not come into effect in the west of Ukraine at some point. NATO have kitted for it, lets put it that way.
    Do you think the Ukraine Air force are flying out of Romania/Poland?

    Would explain their remarkable resilience.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,349
    PJohnson said:

    Lol mate I'm just trying to be realistic but my views don't seem to be welcome
    Your realism being that the Ukrainians, who were after nuclear weapons, should accept being killed with grace because resisting it will just mean they will be killed even more.

    When playing the martyr I think a more sympathetic stance is required.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    PJohnson said:

    Lol mate I'm just trying to be realistic but my views don't seem to be welcome
    That's because they are not. Realistic or welcome.
  • Stereodog said:

    I know I don't post much so I won't be missed but I'm quitting this forum for a while because of my anxiety levels. This is in no small part due to idiots like you who insist on trying to talk the world into nuclear war. Before I go let me repeat the minute a British jet comes into contact with a Russian one it's game over. If you want to see the Ukrainian flag fluttering over an irradiated wasteland then that's your affair but I sincerely hope no one in a position of power listens to you.
    Hey, I like your stuff. Stay chilled if you can.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Stereodog said:

    I know I don't post much so I won't be missed but I'm quitting this forum for a while because of my anxiety levels. This is in no small part due to idiots like you who insist on trying to talk the world into nuclear war. Before I go let me repeat the minute a British jet comes into contact with a Russian one it's game over. If you want to see the Ukrainian flag fluttering over an irradiated wasteland then that's your affair but I sincerely hope no one in a position of power listens to you.
    Good riddance to muppets like you that think we must just let Putin do whatever he wants because he would willingly have every city in Russia wiped out in nuclear attacks. You are the people who would argue for battered wives submitting to their abusers to stop them getting hurt.
  • Leon said:

    Deal. I will only promote the good ones
    Surprised to learn it bothered you but fairy nuff; if you don't like it, people shouldn't do it.
  • Poll today gives Labour a majority and Tories on their worst results since 2005.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,337

    Outside Kyiv being 60km away?
    Half an hour's drive

    Christ. I do believe Putin has decided to go full Chechnya on Ukraine. He can't stand the humiliation of a reverse, he cannot allow the career or life ending risk of a defeat. So he will obliterate any opposition until he "wins". I would not rule out tactical nukes, but he probably won't need them. He will simply rain down hellfire until he inherits the blasted desert, and calls it victory

    Stand by for a new Cold War lasting decades
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Frankly I was hoping for another 20-30 years of life rather than dying in a nuclear holocaust before the summer.
    Quite. I've been moaning about how it feels like this Winter has dragged on forever, but when I wanted it finally to warm up a little being heated to a thousand degrees in half-a-second wasn't quite what I had in mind.
  • Mrs P thinks he looks like he's got Parkinson's.
    I just watched his video from earlier today, and he's definitely blinking and twitching in a slightly new way. Something's up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,175

    Poll today gives Labour a majority and Tories on their worst results since 2005.

    Link?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    Farooq said:

    You are shilling for a fascist.
    A two- bit fascist?
  • Leon said:

    Thermobaric bombs is the best guess

    Either a similar bomb or the same explosion from a different angle. Ginormous


    https://twitter.com/mutahmett/status/1498022991724261385?s=20&t=5VRcrjSE8-1FHaY1x0FR0Q



    Putin has doubled down. He is going to Grozny Ukraine into submission. Hideous. Many thousands will die
    Which is why Ukraine should think about surrendering now and enter negotiations...many lives will be saved
  • PJohnson said:

    Putin is waiting for the right moment to attack Kiev and is doing well in the south of ukraine
    Have you got a song and a dance to go with that?

    Go fuck yourself Putin cheerleader.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849
    Eabhal said:

    You're either talking about the tourists who support the otherwise paltry economy, or the English.
    Try Mull instead. No bridge. God's own country. And get there from the mainland by driving to the end of the world and taking the small ferry from Lochaline to Fishnish. No booking, just turn up. if you can find it.

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,231
    https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1497911200692289544?s=21

    A member of the Belarusian military speaks to the Belarusian troops.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596
    edited February 2022

    Hey, I like your stuff. Stay chilled if you can.
    Me too. Stereodog argues a minority view intelligently and well.

    I hope he reconsiders.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251

    Mrs P thinks he looks like he's got Parkinson's.
    Better hope his finger isn't hovering over the nuclear launch then.....
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    And when more are shot down? Russia is not Iraq. They have S-400s, actual high technology.
    Keep on enforcing the no fly zone. We can afford to keep going far longer than they can. Putin needs a quick war. If they can't use aerial support for their troops then they will get bogged down for years. Russia's economy can't afford a war that long. And they need the Western components to make their advanced weaponry.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,175
    pigeon said:

    Quite. I've been moaning about how it feels like this Winter has dragged on forever, but when I wanted it finally to warm up a little being heated to a thousand degrees in half-a-second wasn't quite what I had in mind.
    No indeed. And if you avoid that, the resulting winter will last the rest of your short, cold, starved life.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Leon said:

    Half an hour's drive

    Christ. I do believe Putin has decided to go full Chechnya on Ukraine. He can't stand the humiliation of a reverse, he cannot allow the career or life ending risk of a defeat. So he will obliterate any opposition until he "wins". I would not rule out tactical nukes, but he probably won't need them. He will simply rain down hellfire until he inherits the blasted desert, and calls it victory

    Stand by for a new Cold War lasting decades
    At this stage, if we just survive long enough to have a new Cold War for decades then I'll be bloody delighted. Bastard Russians.
This discussion has been closed.