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The fog of war – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited March 2022 in General
The fog of war – politicalbetting.com

?CONTINUED…??????82% say Putin is 'dangerous'??54% say Johnson WRONG kind of leader for crisis??46% say UK would be more powerful IN the EU??44% say being in NATO makes them feel safer??6% say no response from NATO would be justified1,108 UK adults, 24th Feb

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Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    First
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🇺🇦 President Zelensky announces talks with Russia:

    (After speaking to 🇧🇾 leader Alexander Lukashenko)

    “We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River” 1/2
    https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1497930994611073024

    A very good move the world needs peace...we need a good negotiated settlement fair to both sides and that recognises russias concerns
    Very well - you said the concern was Ukraine wanting nuclear weapons. Ergo, the settlement is that Ukraine promises to never develop nuclear weapons, and Russia withdraws from the Donbas and Crimea. Why would they need to hold on to those if the concern was the nuclear thing?
    Still very much like an answer to this one PJ - by your own expressed logic the concern justifying invasion does not require holding onto 1 inch of Ukrainian territory, so I expect you will now acknowledge Putin and Russia's concerns can be met whilst restoring Ukrainian control of those areas. Anything else would be rank hypocrisy - or you were lying when you said the concern was about nuclear weapons.

    Three options, you choose.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Curse of the new thread:
    PJohnson said:

    Eabhal said:

    PJohnson said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🇺🇦 President Zelensky announces talks with Russia:

    (After speaking to 🇧🇾 leader Alexander Lukashenko)

    “We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River” 1/2
    https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1497930994611073024

    A very good move the world needs peace...we need a good negotiated settlement fair to both sides and that recognises russias concerns
    Fuck off. Your boy has just escalated to nuclear war.

    We give nothing to the maniac.
    I think that's hyperbole...we may not like putin but he is trying to defend russias interests....
    Vlad, seriously, please. You've more important things to be doing than posting on PB.com.
    You've a strongly worded letter to the International Judo Federation to write, and it seems those Ukrainians haven't surrendered yet.

    I mean, we always say on PB, how do you get time to do work and post, but in this case we really do mean it. Plenty for you to do in the Kremlin.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    You can look at this two ways .

    It’s a trap by Russia to say we tried and Ukraine didn’t want to know then they go hell for leather .

    It’s a sign of weakness from Putin that he’s bitten off more than he can chew and any sort of victory that can be sold back home will do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

    Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

    Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.


  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Huge moment for Biden. Does he go to Defcon 3?

    Or call his bluff and point out that Putin is losing this war and desperately scrabbling for influence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Scott_xP said:

    @benjaminwittes I definitely think talking is better than open conflict, but im having a hard time seeing what the Ukrainian negotiating position would be besides "get the fuck out of everywhere in Ukraine including Crimea."
    https://twitter.com/GreeneyRJ/status/1497934072483618816

    Certainly as starting point.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Scott_xP said:

    @benjaminwittes I definitely think talking is better than open conflict, but im having a hard time seeing what the Ukrainian negotiating position would be besides "get the fuck out of everywhere in Ukraine including Crimea."
    https://twitter.com/GreeneyRJ/status/1497934072483618816

    "and the second you're out, we're joining NATO."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    For anyone interested, donation link being shared on Ukrainian TV.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/BackAndAlive
    https://savelife.in.ua/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Grandma Lyda from Volyn is 97 years old. “I survived Hitler and the Germans, I was there when Donbas was restored. I will also survive Putin the Tiny, with his locusts. Glory to Ukraine!" https://twitter.com/ZarinaZabrisky/status/1497854420473708545/photo/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Huge moment for Biden. Does he go to Defcon 3?

    Or call his bluff and point out that Putin is losing this war and desperately scrabbling for influence.

    It would be sensible, Defcon 3 is just an increase in force readiness beyond the usual without actually moving to prepare for nuclear war
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.

    I am reminded of all the criticism Hague got over Libya, when actually he made all the right calls well ahead of time.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    So Tobias Ellwood is the answer to the question of which politician is calling for radically higher UK defence spending. More power to his elbow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.
    Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

    What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    PJohnson said:

    Problem is Ukraine wants nuclear weapons. That would give the west first strike capability on Moscow. ..it would be like russia putting nuclear weapons on Mexico.. Putin obviously doesn't want this

    At the rate loony boy is going, he'll have all Russia's neighbours except Belarus clamouring to have as many weapons "on" them pointed towards Moscow as they can get.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    The correct response to this I would think would be "no military response"; I assume there's literally nothing we can do militarily to deal with "heightened readiness" in the Russian nuclear forces. By not rising to the bait, he has no excuse and we can continue the conversation with those who would seek to replace him internally. My guess is that this puts more internal pressure on Putin, not less.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Scott_xP said:

    @benjaminwittes I definitely think talking is better than open conflict, but im having a hard time seeing what the Ukrainian negotiating position would be besides "get the fuck out of everywhere in Ukraine including Crimea."
    https://twitter.com/GreeneyRJ/status/1497934072483618816

    The line will be exactly that, I’d hope. But accepting talks not on Russian (or client State) soil fits in with the Ukrainian approach of being open and honest. I hope that Ukrainian delegation has good body guards though, and for gods sake don’t accept any tea.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    Hitch - and you - seem to be of the view that there are certain groups of people with special rights. That Russia has some God given right to interfere with its neighbours. It's none of Russia's business if the Ukraine joins the EU or NATO. They may not like it, but ultimately that's a decision for the countries of NATO and the people of the Ukraine. Russia doesn't get a say.

    Problem is Ukraine wants nuclear weapons. That would give the west first strike capability on Moscow. ..it would be like russia putting nuclear weapons on Mexico.. Putin obviously doesn't want this
    Really?

    Could you perhaps point to a source for this claim.

    Take your time.

    But more importantly, now they've been invaded by Russia, I would say the case for giving them nuclear weapons was pretty good. Wouldn't you agree? Because if they had nuclear weapons, then Russia would not have invaded them.

    Which is what you want, right?
    Indeed.
    According to @PJohnson 's claims, Putin has to be a total fool.

    Because there was no risk of that before, and now there is a distinct risk of it.
    This could end up with Ukraine in NATO, in the EU, and armed with nukes.

    But, for some reason, PJohnson seems reluctant to say in public that Putin is a fool.
    Or a warmonger. I'd take that.
    A criminal. That'd do as well.

    PJohnson - given that everyone thinks you're a Russian misinformation merchant, and that such a person could be liable to have to answer for saying in public that Putin is either a fool, a warmonger, or a criminal, why don't you just say it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.
    I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

    Ditto for many other NATO countries.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
  • PJohnsonPJohnson Posts: 90
    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

    Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

    Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.


    Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.

    After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection.
    The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.
    I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

    Ditto for many other NATO countries.
    When you see big convoys blown up it makes you wonder if a nice stranded businessman was perhaps providing some direction.

    We saw it in Libya where strange white men were from time to time caught on camera directing "traffic".
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.
    I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

    Ditto for many other NATO countries.
    If there's no special forces there I'd be disappointed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @benjaminwittes I definitely think talking is better than open conflict, but im having a hard time seeing what the Ukrainian negotiating position would be besides "get the fuck out of everywhere in Ukraine including Crimea."
    https://twitter.com/GreeneyRJ/status/1497934072483618816

    The line will be exactly that, I’d hope. But accepting talks not on Russian (or client State) soil fits in with the Ukrainian approach of being open and honest. I hope that Ukrainian delegation has good body guards though, and for gods sake don’t accept any tea.
    I wonder if Israel will be overseeing the "security".
    I would certainly hope so.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The header is wishful thinking. Johnson is safe.

    I agree with Robert Smithson. BJ having a good war.

    Next UK GE is BJ vs KS.

    KS PM.

    Scotland says ‘Neither’.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Eabhal said:

    Huge moment for Biden. Does he go to Defcon 3?
    .

    No, I think.
    Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    biggles said:

    I note that Ukraine asked for an international brigade and we said Brits could join. Perhaps they have had 200 new recruits from the Hereford area?

    about 70 British former soldiers are keen to take up an offer from Volodymyr Zelensky to help the pro-democracy and western aligned country fend off a full-blown Russian invasion, according to an ex-paratrooper

    https://www.ft.com/content/475838e4-a430-4c08-bd18-24f14beb4a9e
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.
    Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

    What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway
    It isn't policy differences beteen potential PMs we need to focus on, it's having a rational adult at the helm vs a narcissistic pig determined to cling to office at all lengths conceivable.

    Putting it another way, we are being shown two versions of leadership, Putin's and Zelensky's, and we have the opportunity to put the question to ourselves: which does Pig Dog more closely resemble?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    PJohnson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

    Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

    Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.


    Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
    I think the ... Is.... The....

    Tell.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Pollster @jamesjohnson252: "Though it's possible to see the gap narrowing in an actual election contest... it's becoming less and less likely to see a situation in which the Tories win a majority under BJ. Partygate has been damaging and has all the signs of being long-lasting."
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1497938650453192710
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Zelenskyy and Lukashenka have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River,–Presidential Office informed at 15:30 EET.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497934920512987136
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.
    Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

    What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway
    It isn't policy differences beteen potential PMs we need to focus on, it's having a rational adult at the helm vs a narcissistic pig determined to cling to office at all lengths conceivable.

    Putting it another way, we are being shown two versions of leadership, Putin's and Zelensky's, and we have the opportunity to put the question to ourselves: which does Pig Dog more closely resemble?
    Neither Zelensky's fight to the death or Putin's threatening all his neighbours are the ideal leaderships at the moment
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    I don’t think they’ll be discussing surrender.

    Ukrainian FM
    @DmytroKuleba
    right now: Putin's actions are like those of Hitler. Russia has not achieved a single one of its goals. They wanted a blitzkrieg but failed. "We are inflicting disastrous losses on the enemy." He lists devastating numbers of losses on the Russian side.
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1497938404364931074
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    biggles said:

    I believe they looked at him in a funny way.

    Did they call him short?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    Give it a break.

    He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.

    How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Ukraine will send a delegation to hold talks with Russia at the border with Belarus, according to Ukraine’s presidential office.
    They will meet at the Pripyat river north of Chernobyl.
    Ukraine had earlier refused to meet in Belarus because it is actively involved in the invasion
    https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1497939701566685188
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sandpit said:

    For anyone interested, donation link being shared on Ukrainian TV.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/BackAndAlive
    https://savelife.in.ua/

    May as well send them a chunk because if Putin blows up the world then we won't be around to spend it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TimS said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
    Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.
    I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

    Ditto for many other NATO countries.
    When you see big convoys blown up it makes you wonder if a nice stranded businessman was perhaps providing some direction.

    We saw it in Libya where strange white men were from time to time caught on camera directing "traffic".
    I’ll never forget poor Billy Hague, sent to spend half an hour talking bollocks to the media about why the ‘rescue flight’ to Tripoli was still on the ground - as the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service were loading their bags onto the plane.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Ukraine also gave a breakdown of Russian kit destroyed:
    - about 46 Russian warplanes downed
    - 26 helicopters
    - 146 tanks
    - 706 armoured vehicles
    - 49 cannons
    - 1 surface to air BUK missile system
    - 30 vehicles
    - 2 drones
    - 2 boats
    It's not possible independently to verify data
    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497939945914347525
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    Give it a break.

    He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.

    How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
    Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.

    He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.

    Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    I wonder if the Chinese are starting to regret getting in the crackhead uber.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    StuartDickson said:

    TimS said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
    Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
    I'm in favour of Trident.

    Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
  • PJohnsonPJohnson Posts: 90
    Andy_Cooke said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    Hitch - and you - seem to be of the view that there are certain groups of people with special rights. That Russia has some God given right to interfere with its neighbours. It's none of Russia's business if the Ukraine joins the EU or NATO. They may not like it, but ultimately that's a decision for the countries of NATO and the people of the Ukraine. Russia doesn't get a say.

    Problem is Ukraine wants nuclear weapons. That would give the west first strike capability on Moscow. ..it would be like russia putting nuclear weapons on Mexico.. Putin obviously doesn't want this
    Really?

    Could you perhaps point to a source for this claim.

    Take your time.

    But more importantly, now they've been invaded by Russia, I would say the case for giving them nuclear weapons was pretty good. Wouldn't you agree? Because if they had nuclear weapons, then Russia would not have invaded them.

    Which is what you want, right?
    Indeed.
    According to @PJohnson 's claims, Putin has to be a total fool.

    Because there was no risk of that before, and now there is a distinct risk of it.
    This could end up with Ukraine in NATO, in the EU, and armed with nukes.

    But, for some reason, PJohnson seems reluctant to say in public that Putin is a fool.
    Or a warmonger. I'd take that.
    A criminal. That'd do as well.

    PJohnson - given that everyone thinks you're a Russian misinformation merchant, and that such a person could be liable to have to answer for saying in public that Putin is either a fool, a warmonger, or a criminal, why don't you just say it?
    There is misinformation both sides...it helps to keep an open mind
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.
    Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

    What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway
    It isn't policy differences beteen potential PMs we need to focus on, it's having a rational adult at the helm vs a narcissistic pig determined to cling to office at all lengths conceivable.

    Putting it another way, we are being shown two versions of leadership, Putin's and Zelensky's, and we have the opportunity to put the question to ourselves: which does Pig Dog more closely resemble?
    Neither Zelensky's fight to the death or Putin's threatening all his neighbours are the ideal leaderships at the moment
    What else do you think Zelensky should be doing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.
    I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

    Ditto for many other NATO countries.
    I note that Ukraine asked for an international brigade and we said Brits could join. Perhaps they have had 200 new recruits from the Hereford area?
    "SAS? Hell no! I'm a brickie from Dunstable and this here is Major Martin Forbes. He's an electrician from East Kilbride. Isn't that right, Sir?"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?

    Away with your appeasement.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    Give it a break.

    He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.

    How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
    Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.

    He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.

    Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
    I was right, the way they're struggling v Ukraine proves that!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    StuartDickson said:

    TimS said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
    Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
    I'm in favour of Trident.

    Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
    You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.
    Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

    What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway
    It isn't policy differences beteen potential PMs we need to focus on, it's having a rational adult at the helm vs a narcissistic pig determined to cling to office at all lengths conceivable.

    Putting it another way, we are being shown two versions of leadership, Putin's and Zelensky's, and we have the opportunity to put the question to ourselves: which does Pig Dog more closely resemble?
    Neither Zelensky's fight to the death or Putin's threatening all his neighbours are the ideal leaderships at the moment
    What else do you think Zelensky should be doing?
    Going back to having a laugh would be nice.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
    The Russian armed forces are bigger than those of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland combined.

    Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    PJohnson said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    Hitch - and you - seem to be of the view that there are certain groups of people with special rights. That Russia has some God given right to interfere with its neighbours. It's none of Russia's business if the Ukraine joins the EU or NATO. They may not like it, but ultimately that's a decision for the countries of NATO and the people of the Ukraine. Russia doesn't get a say.

    Problem is Ukraine wants nuclear weapons. That would give the west first strike capability on Moscow. ..it would be like russia putting nuclear weapons on Mexico.. Putin obviously doesn't want this
    Really?

    Could you perhaps point to a source for this claim.

    Take your time.

    But more importantly, now they've been invaded by Russia, I would say the case for giving them nuclear weapons was pretty good. Wouldn't you agree? Because if they had nuclear weapons, then Russia would not have invaded them.

    Which is what you want, right?
    Indeed.
    According to @PJohnson 's claims, Putin has to be a total fool.

    Because there was no risk of that before, and now there is a distinct risk of it.
    This could end up with Ukraine in NATO, in the EU, and armed with nukes.

    But, for some reason, PJohnson seems reluctant to say in public that Putin is a fool.
    Or a warmonger. I'd take that.
    A criminal. That'd do as well.

    PJohnson - given that everyone thinks you're a Russian misinformation merchant, and that such a person could be liable to have to answer for saying in public that Putin is either a fool, a warmonger, or a criminal, why don't you just say it?
    There is misinformation both sides...it helps to keep an open mind
    Go on.

    Say it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.
    I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

    Ditto for many other NATO countries.
    When you see big convoys blown up it makes you wonder if a nice stranded businessman was perhaps providing some direction.

    We saw it in Libya where strange white men were from time to time caught on camera directing "traffic".
    I’ll never forget poor Billy Hague, sent to spend half an hour talking bollocks to the media about why the ‘rescue flight’ to Tripoli was still on the ground - as the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service were loading their bags onto the plane.
    If I remember correctly, he had actually sent a business delegation to Libya several weeks before the fighting started. And while Kay Burley was ranting and raving about why weren't the UK doing anything, scaring the ex-pats senseless, these same business men had already secured an airfield and had moved themselves / kit into areas around the big ex-pat communities in the deserts, ensuring that anybody who came close to those places was neutralised.

    And did the media apologise for getting it totally wrong, did they f##k.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    StuartDickson said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    StuartDickson said:

    TimS said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
    Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
    I'm in favour of Trident.

    Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
    You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
    I have more faith in Trident than unilateral disarmament.

    Ukraine unilaterally disarmed and look at them now.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Scott_xP said:

    biggles said:

    I believe they looked at him in a funny way.

    Did they call him short?
    Yes and shortly thereafter he saw them step on the cracks in the pavement.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    @ragipsoylu
    BREAKING — Turkey says what happens in Ukraine constitutes a war under Montreux Convention, says will act accordingly: Foreign Minister

    Meaning, Turkey can close the straits for Russian warships except the ones associated with the Black Sea fleet

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497940835094171654
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
    The Russian armed forces are bigger than those of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland combined.

    Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
    Putin will fill his breeks when he sees your amphibious tank.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    We are closing on the point of maximum danger. Russia faces a Ukrainian army that is being reinforced and re-equipped far quicker than they are. The armed forces of both Russia and Belarus are facing significant problems, and clearly Lukashenka is trying to save his own skin by being useful in trying to stop the escalation to a nuclear exchange that Putin is threatening.

    Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.

    No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    Give it a break.

    He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.

    How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
    Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.

    He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.

    Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
    "He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital."

    Citation required....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    PJohnson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

    Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

    Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.


    Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
    The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
  • PJohnsonPJohnson Posts: 90
    41 % of uk adults want nato military involvement...incredible...do they want nuclear war
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    The growing crisis requires a mature, level headed adult to lead our country, whereas the Tories have lumbered us with a spoiled, entitled child.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

    Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

    What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

    So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?

    Away with your appeasement.
    If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.

    He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.

    This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1497941840133296130
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Is it possible that Lukashenko might want to cut a deal?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    edmundintokyo said:

    I wonder if the Chinese are starting to regret getting in the crackhead uber.

    They haven't really though. As so often, the Chinese play both sides, with just enough distance to say we aren't directly aligned with Putin, we just try to assist with ensuring world order.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Cicero said:

    We are closing on the point of maximum danger. Russia faces a Ukrainian army that is being reinforced and re-equipped far quicker than they are. The armed forces of both Russia and Belarus are facing significant problems, and clearly Lukashenka is trying to save his own skin by being useful in trying to stop the escalation to a nuclear exchange that Putin is threatening.

    Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.

    No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.

    Don’t you read PB? The standout political issue of the age is electoral reform in Alaska. Armageddon? Pffff.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

    Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.
    I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

    Ditto for many other NATO countries.
    Interesting point. I was wonder whether, if the conflict continues for a while, whether Blackrock and similar will get the green light to go in with latest military tech? Russians routinely use semi-private groups e.g. in Syria.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BREAKING — Turkey says what happens in Ukraine constitutes a war under Montreux Convention, says will act accordingly: Foreign Minister

    Meaning, Turkey can close the straits for Russian warships except the ones associated with the Black Sea fleet

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497940835094171654
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1497939581185974273

    "I can’t risk publishing photos of these defensive positions for obvious reasons, but Russian tanks are going to meet fierce resistance on these streets. I am told even some of the smaller ones have hidden anti-tank weaponry. They’re planning on defending every single inch here."

    If it goes street by street we're going to see a lot more scenes like the column this morning.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    BREAKING: Ukraine's foreign minister says the fact that Russia has agreed to a meeting without preconditions or ultimatums "is already a victory"
    "We go there to listen to what Russia wants to say"
    Ukraine will tell Russia what it thinks of its action, @DmytroKuleba says
    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497942633922105350
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

    If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

    If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
    He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
    The Russian armed forces are bigger than those of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland combined.

    Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
    I read that there around 90k members of the US forces (dunno how that breaks down in service arms and kit) currently in Europe with more on the way. Do you think there's the slightest chance of them being withdrawn?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.

    This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1497941840133296130

    Also going to require a lot of the media pundits to do some serious rewriting of their positions. Boris continuously criticised for not even going anywhere near far enough on the eco-stuff.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I understand that Liz Truss's surprising comments on Brits going to fight in Ukraine this morning took No 10 by surprise...
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-secretary-liz-truss-back-26341016
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Andy_Cooke said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
    Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
    Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.

    After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection.
    The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
    I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.

    The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.

    Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Effective immediately, Canada is closing its air space to all Russian-owned, chartered or operated aircrafts.

    We will continue to do everything we can against the Russian regime’s aggressions, and will always stand with Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/melaniejoly/status/1497942393856958465
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Cicero said:

    We are closing on the point of maximum danger. Russia faces a Ukrainian army that is being reinforced and re-equipped far quicker than they are. The armed forces of both Russia and Belarus are facing significant problems, and clearly Lukashenka is trying to save his own skin by being useful in trying to stop the escalation to a nuclear exchange that Putin is threatening.

    Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.

    No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.

    We are not near nuclear war yet. A reminder that even if Putin has a death wish launching a first strike nuclear attack requires a lot of people to tow the party line. That’s hard to do when the party line is essentially to destroy the world.

    That’s not to say that there’s not some danger of full escalation but we are not on the edge of the precipice as things stand - though moving slightly (and uncomfortably) too close for comfort.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    You know that PB is a top site when it's considered worth Putin's trolls posting here.

    MoonRabbit? Always a very odd “Lib Dem”. Ahem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IanB2 said:

    The growing crisis requires a mature, level headed adult to lead our country, whereas the Tories have lumbered us with a spoiled, entitled child.

    Boris has acted perfectly maturely throughout this crisis, it is Putin's mental state that will determine where we go from here regardless of who is UK PM. Unless Putin is toppled by an internal coup of course
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Huge moment for Biden. Does he go to Defcon 3?
    .

    No, I think.
    Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
    Doing nothing is rather the equivalent of "point and laugh"....

    We don't need to get our nukes out the pawn shop.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Eabhal said:

    Huge moment for Biden. Does he go to Defcon 3?

    Or call his bluff and point out that Putin is losing this war and desperately scrabbling for influence.

    Just finished the new Ken Follett, "Never", about the progression through the DefCons as one event triggers another. It's not one of his best books IMO (a large subplot about ISIS in Mali never really links up with the main thread) but it's uncannily relevant (written with input from Gordon Brown and others, apparently).
This discussion has been closed.