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The fog of war – politicalbetting.com
The fog of war – politicalbetting.com
?CONTINUED…??????82% say Putin is 'dangerous'??54% say Johnson WRONG kind of leader for crisis??46% say UK would be more powerful IN the EU??44% say being in NATO makes them feel safer??6% say no response from NATO would be justified1,108 UK adults, 24th Feb
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https://twitter.com/GreeneyRJ/status/1497934072483618816
Three options, you choose.
You've a strongly worded letter to the International Judo Federation to write, and it seems those Ukrainians haven't surrendered yet.
I mean, we always say on PB, how do you get time to do work and post, but in this case we really do mean it. Plenty for you to do in the Kremlin.
It’s a trap by Russia to say we tried and Ukraine didn’t want to know then they go hell for leather .
It’s a sign of weakness from Putin that he’s bitten off more than he can chew and any sort of victory that can be sold back home will do.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Could you perhaps point to a source for this claim.
Take your time.
But more importantly, now they've been invaded by Russia, I would say the case for giving them nuclear weapons was pretty good. Wouldn't you agree? Because if they had nuclear weapons, then Russia would not have invaded them.
Which is what you want, right?
Or call his bluff and point out that Putin is losing this war and desperately scrabbling for influence.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BackAndAlive
https://savelife.in.ua/
Really struggling to stay polite in the face of such bad faith commentary. Many views are credible even if they are wrong. This is not that.
I am reminded of all the criticism Hague got over Libya, when actually he made all the right calls well ahead of time.
What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway
Still. There'll be plenty of by-elections to bet on.
According to @PJohnson 's claims, Putin has to be a total fool.
Because there was no risk of that before, and now there is a distinct risk of it.
This could end up with Ukraine in NATO, in the EU, and armed with nukes.
But, for some reason, PJohnson seems reluctant to say in public that Putin is a fool.
Or a warmonger. I'd take that.
A criminal. That'd do as well.
PJohnson - given that everyone thinks you're a Russian misinformation merchant, and that such a person could be liable to have to answer for saying in public that Putin is either a fool, a warmonger, or a criminal, why don't you just say it?
Ditto for many other NATO countries.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection.
The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
We saw it in Libya where strange white men were from time to time caught on camera directing "traffic".
I would certainly hope so.
They’re a little “concerned” that a large proportion of what they want to call their army, is getting the shit kicked out of it before they get anywhere near to Kiev?
Maybe they’re “concerned” about all the mothers and wives, who sent their soldiers on a peacekeeping mission but will see body bags come home instead? Or maybe not even that much dignity, instead relying on mobile crematoria to dispose of their husbands and children. Maybe they just hope the women won’t notice when the men don’t come home?
I agree with Robert Smithson. BJ having a good war.
Next UK GE is BJ vs KS.
KS PM.
Scotland says ‘Neither’.
Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
https://www.ft.com/content/475838e4-a430-4c08-bd18-24f14beb4a9e
Putting it another way, we are being shown two versions of leadership, Putin's and Zelensky's, and we have the opportunity to put the question to ourselves: which does Pig Dog more closely resemble?
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Tell.....
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1497938650453192710
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497934920512987136
Ukrainian FM
@DmytroKuleba
right now: Putin's actions are like those of Hitler. Russia has not achieved a single one of its goals. They wanted a blitzkrieg but failed. "We are inflicting disastrous losses on the enemy." He lists devastating numbers of losses on the Russian side.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1497938404364931074
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
They will meet at the Pripyat river north of Chernobyl.
Ukraine had earlier refused to meet in Belarus because it is actively involved in the invasion
https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1497939701566685188
- about 46 Russian warplanes downed
- 26 helicopters
- 146 tanks
- 706 armoured vehicles
- 49 cannons
- 1 surface to air BUK missile system
- 30 vehicles
- 2 drones
- 2 boats
It's not possible independently to verify data
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497939945914347525
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
Away with your appeasement.
Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
Say it.
And did the media apologise for getting it totally wrong, did they f##k.
Ukraine unilaterally disarmed and look at them now.
BREAKING — Turkey says what happens in Ukraine constitutes a war under Montreux Convention, says will act accordingly: Foreign Minister
Meaning, Turkey can close the straits for Russian warships except the ones associated with the Black Sea fleet
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497940835094171654
Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.
No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.
Citation required....
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1497941840133296130
Meaning, Turkey can close the straits for Russian warships except the ones associated with the Black Sea fleet
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497940835094171654
"I can’t risk publishing photos of these defensive positions for obvious reasons, but Russian tanks are going to meet fierce resistance on these streets. I am told even some of the smaller ones have hidden anti-tank weaponry. They’re planning on defending every single inch here."
If it goes street by street we're going to see a lot more scenes like the column this morning.
"We go there to listen to what Russia wants to say"
Ukraine will tell Russia what it thinks of its action, @DmytroKuleba says
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497942633922105350
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-secretary-liz-truss-back-26341016
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
We will continue to do everything we can against the Russian regime’s aggressions, and will always stand with Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/melaniejoly/status/1497942393856958465
That’s not to say that there’s not some danger of full escalation but we are not on the edge of the precipice as things stand - though moving slightly (and uncomfortably) too close for comfort.
We don't need to get our nukes out the pawn shop.