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The fog of war – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    It's a tease and he sets himself up for it. No need for toys out of the pram on this one. :smile:

    Speaking of which, I found Sean's next wife...

    Anastasia Lenna, Miss Grand Ukraine 2015, now taking up arms to defend her country from madman Putin's invaders. In 100 years - 1000 years - the world will talk of the courage of the Ukrainian people in these days. https://twitter.com/TonyParsonsUK/status/1497962160361721860/photo/1




  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    As an aside, how do schools do safeguarding in situations like this? Surely there are some schools with both Russian and Ukrainian students?

    Are there guidelines on how to deal with it? Talk to them first?

    I haven't received any yet.

    But so far all the Russians living here seem even more disgusted with Putin than the Ukrainians are, so I don't think they will cause trouble.

    Whether the Ukrainians will lash out without thinking of that I don't know, but again my impression is that they're not blaming the Russians.
  • Massive Russian convoy seen outside Kyiv

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gDmMVzjIVw
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Heathener said:

    geoffw said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just read the speech Johnson gave at the Ukrainian church. He can be a strong orator, with substantial brainpower. Shame he's a lazy philandering tosspot 95% of the time, and that will never change.

    Never mind, he's our lazy philandering tosspot.
    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    If Putin has come to the end of the road he might try to take the rest of us with him.

    Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?”
    https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1498022807627829250
    Cripes.

    Hell's bells
    Is that genuine. The tweeters profile mentions they spread fake news
  • Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    If Putin has come to the end of the road he might try to take the rest of us with him.

    Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?”
    https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1498022807627829250
    Except it doesn't. The USSR had 45,000+ nukes in 1985 that guaranteed saturation of all possible economic, military and civilian targets, and there were with much bigger warheads.

    Today's nukes have smaller warheads and are better targeted but that's only about 20 nukes per NATO member and given the reliability and serviceability of his conventional forces I doubt all they'd all fire or detonate properly still less all reach their targets.

    He couldn't even be sure of taking out most US military targets with that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280
    ydoethur said:

    This is how it ends...


    Tsar Nicholas II was not overthrown because the war was going badly, although it could have been going somewhat better.

    He wasn't overthrown because he was a rich man and all the Russians were poor, although this was probably suboptimal.

    He wasn't overthrown because of his wife's emotional reliance on a sex crazed drunken starets, although that didn't help.

    No, the actual reason was that the points had frozen on the main railway line into Petrograd, leaving both its people and the military garrison short of flour and therefore bread. Once those two groups began rioting, he was finished.

    I wonder if this might be the start of something similar.

    Fortunately for the world, Nicolai Alexeivitch didn't have nuclear weapons. Unlike Putin...
    Inronically the Tsar was probably a better Russian leader than most of those who succeeded him, with the exception of maybe Gorbachev and Yeltsin, certainly from a western perspective
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    All discussion eventually metamorphose into one involving geology.

    What is the geology equivalent of Godwin's Law?
    Charles Lyell: The past is the key to the present.

    Or Lyell again: “I may conclude this chapter by quoting a saying of Professor Agassiz, that whenever a new and startling fact is brought to light in science, people first say, 'it is not true,' then that 'it is contrary to religion,' and lastly, 'that everybody knew it before.”

    James Hutton:
    The result, therefore, of our present enquiry is, that we find no vestige of a beginning, - no prospect of an end.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    edited February 2022
    The amount of NATO nations transporters doing the rounds to where it matters is unmistakeable. As well as the RAF and the USAF you have Greek, Turkish, Spanish aircraft shipping gear in the last two days.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    Cue Tom Lehrer to cheer us all up.
    We'll all go together when we go.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280
    pigeon said:

    The UN Security Council adopted a resolution to call for an emergency session of the General Assembly which will convene in the next 24 hours. It is the first time such a session has been called in decades, said U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, because “This is not ordinary moment. We need to take extraordinary action to meet this threat to our international system and to do everything we can to help Ukraine and its people.”

    NY Times

    The General Assembly vote has no binding effect, but will give an indication of how isolated Russia has become. Though, frankly, you wonder whether, should Nutjob discover that he has almost the whole world against him, he might try to kill absolutely everyone in revenge. It's extremely scary.
    China, the UAE and India all abstained rather than vote to condemn Russia on the Security Council.

    Those are some pretty big or wealthy nations not lining up against him whatever the Assembly decides
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    If Putin has come to the end of the road he might try to take the rest of us with him.

    Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?”
    https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1498022807627829250
    Hell's bells.

    Someone needs to stop this madman. And fast.
    Moscow has had far more crazed nutcases than Putin over the decades and none of them launched nuclear weapons. They know full well Russia would be leveled if it happened. And they know that Russia will indeed "be in the world" if they don't. This is all an attempt to get others to back down. I.e. a bluff.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited February 2022
    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    If Putin has come to the end of the road he might try to take the rest of us with him.

    Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?”
    https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1498022807627829250
    Hell's bells.

    Someone needs to stop this madman. And fast.
    I know this is probably wish fulfilment and probably not likely, but it bears asking.

    What if a still similarly rational person has spent a long time planning a performance of world-destroying madness, without actually being so ? He or his advisers might even add some of the apocalyptic iconography of James Bond films to some of his videoed meetings, knowing the cultural significance of this to western audiences.

    I know it's unlikely and several indications point to a genuinely changed person, but it bears a moment's thought.
  • Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I really wish I was out in SE Asia at the moment but, hey ho.

    Anyway, courtesy of the lovely Daily Star here is a map of where Putin might nuke in the UK and the safest places to be.

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/surviving-nuclear-war-in-uk-26326895

    Apologies if this unnerves people but we're dealing with a madman and anything is possible, especially with the escalations.

    The safest places to live in the event of a nuclear attack are obviously the most rural areas and coastal areas far from military bases eg Isles of Scilly, the Highlands of Scotland, the Yorkshire Moors, Snowdonia and Mid Wales, East Kent etc.

    Though obviously if Putin did launch nukes on the UK we would also be send Trident nuclear missiles to attack Moscow and St Petersburg from UK submarines within a few hours
    Yes, but who the fuck wants to survive a nuclear war?
    If I was living in, say, Thailand then I would. I've craved getting back to nature and to the wild. Just not quite via this route.

    I was watching Octopussy with my son earlier. Making our way through James Bond films.

    I'd always considered the plot a bit far-fetched until today: you know, a deranged ex KGB officer who wants to set off a nuclear bomb in the west ...
    There's probably a number of places in the world where one could continue post-apocalypse without it necessarily being post-apocalypse. Certainly though Britain isn't going to be one of those.
    Been through Birmingham lately? Not sure how many would notice the difference.

    (Seriously, it's a great city, and will be greater still when they finish building it.)
    Glasgow, OTOH, is more dystopian than post-apocalyptic.
    It is Marvel's go-to as a replica for Gotham City.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    ydoethur said:

    PJohnson said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    More seriously (BBC journalist).
    Russian troops are in Berdyansk. They're getting closer to Mariupol. Also not clear about the northern direction - Volnovakha I heard was totally cut off by Russian troops. They're encircling Mariupol from all sides.
    https://twitter.com/abdujalil/status/1497998348992798730

    It certainly looks as if the southern front is the one that the Russians are winning. Hard to know whether by accident or design.
    The amphibious landing force has probably helped them there. In general, I think that we're all celebrating the failure of the invason a bit prematurely - it's only been going for a few days and Kyiv is apparently surrounded. Not clear what the Russians plan next there, though - fighting for it street by street must sound unappealing to the most gung-ho general.
    Yes you are correct Nick what you WANT to happen is not the same as what will happen
    Are you still here? I hope you end up in the Hague with Putin and Lukeshenko. William Joyce of course got his comeuppance at Nuremberg.
    PJohnson said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    More seriously (BBC journalist).
    Russian troops are in Berdyansk. They're getting closer to Mariupol. Also not clear about the northern direction - Volnovakha I heard was totally cut off by Russian troops. They're encircling Mariupol from all sides.
    https://twitter.com/abdujalil/status/1497998348992798730

    It certainly looks as if the southern front is the one that the Russians are winning. Hard to know whether by accident or design.
    I think peak ukrainian resistance is over
    Are you still here?

    I look forward to seeing you in the Hague alongside Putin and Lukashenko.

    It didn't end well for William Joyce did it?
    Joyce was actually tried at the Old Bailey, not at Nuremberg. Only senior members of the Nazi party were tried at Nuremberg.
    Was he not technically British either, so really was wrongfully convicted?
    American by birth, I had thought him Irish. I learned that when I went to correct my error that Vanilla re-saved after deletion and posted anyway.
    Clearly I wasn’t there at the time, but I’ve always felt he was a bit hard done to. He took German citizenship and then broadcast for his (now) country. Executing him for treason feels wrong. No doubt passions were running high.
    IIRC The prosecution successfully argued that though he'd obtained a UK passport fraudulently, he had taken advantage of it, and therefore owed allegiance....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    huge breaking news at BP:

    - BP to exit its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft

    - BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect

    - https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1497980539483172872

    Wow. That's absolutely huge. Good on BP shareholders for forcing the issue.
    Who are they going to sell it to?
    No one. They are writing it off.
    Are they exiting? They’ve written the value down to zero, resigned from the board, and won’t recognise any income from it.

    But they own it as much as Abramovich owns CFC
    My understanding is that they will no longer legally have any ownership. I believe they are invested in Rosneft as a JV partnership. Once they withdraw from that they have no 'ownership' to speak of.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is how it ends...


    Tsar Nicholas II was not overthrown because the war was going badly, although it could have been going somewhat better.

    He wasn't overthrown because he was a rich man and all the Russians were poor, although this was probably suboptimal.

    He wasn't overthrown because of his wife's emotional reliance on a sex crazed drunken starets, although that didn't help.

    No, the actual reason was that the points had frozen on the main railway line into Petrograd, leaving both its people and the military garrison short of flour and therefore bread. Once those two groups began rioting, he was finished.

    I wonder if this might be the start of something similar.

    Fortunately for the world, Nicolai Alexeivitch didn't have nuclear weapons. Unlike Putin...
    Inronically the Tsar was probably a better Russian leader than most of those who succeeded him, with the exception of maybe Gorbachev and Yeltsin, certainly from a western perspective
    I'd put him behind Khrushchev. Khrushchev at least tried to make things better. He mostly failed, but unlike most of the others including Nicholas he made the effort.

    But you know, saying that somebody was better than Lenin, Stalin or Brezhnev is setting the bar pretty low.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I did not include Glasgow, Glasgow was already on the list of potential Russian nuclear targets so would likely be wiped out
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Chameleon said:

    #BREAKING: EU countries will provide #Ukraine with 'fighter jets' under Brussels funding, says
    @JosepBorrellF

    https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1498030112230592512

    Wow. Hopefully the US gives them some drones as well.

    That's pointless for immediate use, given crew (pilot and ground) training times. Unless Germany and others still have some serviceable MIG-29s?
    I think Poland has Mig 29 - and I think Germany sold all their Mig-29s to Poland....
    Wikipedia says the Polish airforce has 23 Mig-29 and 18 Su-22 (and 48 F-16).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I did not include Glasgow, Glasgow was already on the list of potential Russian nuclear targets so would likely be wiped out
    Why would they bother nuking the Gallowgate and Ibrox?

    And, in any case, the effect is much the same if they hit Faslane.

    I suggestr you buy this thing called an "atlas".
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited February 2022
    DELETED

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I wonder why they didn't park them up at Scapa? Was always going to be controversial having them near the central belt.

    Deep water access? Too stormy up there? Easier to hit with an air strike?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is how it ends...


    Tsar Nicholas II was not overthrown because the war was going badly, although it could have been going somewhat better.

    He wasn't overthrown because he was a rich man and all the Russians were poor, although this was probably suboptimal.

    He wasn't overthrown because of his wife's emotional reliance on a sex crazed drunken starets, although that didn't help.

    No, the actual reason was that the points had frozen on the main railway line into Petrograd, leaving both its people and the military garrison short of flour and therefore bread. Once those two groups began rioting, he was finished.

    I wonder if this might be the start of something similar.

    Fortunately for the world, Nicolai Alexeivitch didn't have nuclear weapons. Unlike Putin...
    Inronically the Tsar was probably a better Russian leader than most of those who succeeded him, with the exception of maybe Gorbachev and Yeltsin, certainly from a western perspective
    I'd put him behind Khrushchev. Khrushchev at least tried to make things better. He mostly failed, but unlike most of the others including Nicholas he made the effort.

    But you know, saying that somebody was better than Lenin, Stalin or Brezhnev is setting the bar pretty low.
    To an extent, the Cuban Missile Crisis happened under Kruschev.

    You also now have to add Putin alongside Lenin, Stalin and Breshnev
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    PJohnson said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    More seriously (BBC journalist).
    Russian troops are in Berdyansk. They're getting closer to Mariupol. Also not clear about the northern direction - Volnovakha I heard was totally cut off by Russian troops. They're encircling Mariupol from all sides.
    https://twitter.com/abdujalil/status/1497998348992798730

    It certainly looks as if the southern front is the one that the Russians are winning. Hard to know whether by accident or design.
    I think peak ukrainian resistance is over
    I think it has barely begun.

    There will be bloodletting on a grand scale before this is done, and lots will be Russian.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598
    edited February 2022
    Sad. Saw that land here in the Flatlands a while back.

    It has a couple of slightly smaller cousins that visit more often - not sure how they are doing.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    Also, from a mountaineering perspective, Glasgow is way better than Edinburgh for getting up into the hills.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I did not include Glasgow, Glasgow was already on the list of potential Russian nuclear targets so would likely be wiped out
    Why would they bother nuking the Gallowgate and Ibrox?
    The Russian target list included all major UK cities, Glasgow is the 5th largest city in the UK
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is how it ends...


    Tsar Nicholas II was not overthrown because the war was going badly, although it could have been going somewhat better.

    He wasn't overthrown because he was a rich man and all the Russians were poor, although this was probably suboptimal.

    He wasn't overthrown because of his wife's emotional reliance on a sex crazed drunken starets, although that didn't help.

    No, the actual reason was that the points had frozen on the main railway line into Petrograd, leaving both its people and the military garrison short of flour and therefore bread. Once those two groups began rioting, he was finished.

    I wonder if this might be the start of something similar.

    Fortunately for the world, Nicolai Alexeivitch didn't have nuclear weapons. Unlike Putin...
    Inronically the Tsar was probably a better Russian leader than most of those who succeeded him, with the exception of maybe Gorbachev and Yeltsin, certainly from a western perspective
    He was personally not a sociopath, just a bit of a dim bulb. Can't help feeling that a small gardening job somewhere would have been a fitting end to him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I wonder why they didn't park them up at Scapa? Was always going to be controversial having them near the central belt.

    Deep water access? Too stormy up there? Easier to hit with an air strike?
    I don't know, specifically, but logistics wise it would have been tricky.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I haven't been following the discussion, but I don't think of Faslane as being 'Highlands'. It's too near Glasgow for it to be 'Highlands', demographically, geographically, or culturally. It's close, though.

    And since, perhaps uniquely on PB, I've walked around the lot (excepting the islands), I'll put myself as an authority. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Aslan said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    If Putin has come to the end of the road he might try to take the rest of us with him.

    Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?”
    https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1498022807627829250
    Hell's bells.

    Someone needs to stop this madman. And fast.
    Moscow has had far more crazed nutcases than Putin over the decades and none of them launched nuclear weapons. They know full well Russia would be leveled if it happened. And they know that Russia will indeed "be in the world" if they don't. This is all an attempt to get others to back down. I.e. a bluff.
    His behaviour at the moment is eerily reminiscent of that of Brezhnev in his last years. Crazy foreign ventures. Threats of nuclear annihilation. Trying to sustain over-ambitious military spending at the expense of his country. Rampaging fraud and corruption in the government. The FSB extremely powerful.

    Brezhnev, of course, had dementia, complicated by cardiovascular problems and alcoholism.

    There may be more to these rumours about Putin's health.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Sad. Saw that land here in the Flatlands a while back.

    It has a couple of slightly smaller cousins that visit more often - not sure how they are doing.
    The World's largest aircraft is dead. Long live the world's largest aircraft!
  • Yokes said:

    US is reportedly telling its citizens to exit Russia whilst they still can according to NYTimes.

    I'd say the same should apply to British citizens and all NATO countries, although I don't exactly know how given air routes have closed.
  • Rep. Clay Higgins
    @RepClayHiggins

    You millennial leftists who never lived one day under nuclear threat can now reflect upon your woke sky.
    You made quite a non-binary fuss to save the world from intercontinental ballistic tweets

    Dictionary.com
    @Dictionarycom
    Replying to @RepClayHiggins

    We’re not entirely sure what this tweet is supposed to mean, and we’re literally the dictionary.

    https://twitter.com/Dictionarycom/status/1498033493561032710
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,982
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I really wish I was out in SE Asia at the moment but, hey ho.

    Anyway, courtesy of the lovely Daily Star here is a map of where Putin might nuke in the UK and the safest places to be.

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/surviving-nuclear-war-in-uk-26326895

    Apologies if this unnerves people but we're dealing with a madman and anything is possible, especially with the escalations.

    The safest places to live in the event of a nuclear attack are obviously the most rural areas and coastal areas far from military bases eg Isles of Scilly, the Highlands of Scotland, the Yorkshire Moors, Snowdonia and Mid Wales, East Kent etc.

    Though obviously if Putin did launch nukes on the UK we would also be send Trident nuclear missiles to attack Moscow and St Petersburg from UK submarines within a few hours
    Highlands of Scotland?!?

    I ought not be surprised after your pig-ignorance regarding Trident this morning.
    Faslane is near the coast not the central Highlands.

    Wow not your best post HYUFD. I was at Faslane in October. I can assure you it is indeed near the Highlands although I notice you have very, very, naughtily added the word 'central'!!!!

    Faslane is at the top of Garelochhead and the start of the Trosachs.

    Geologically Faslane is actually in the Highlands because the dividing line of the central belt runs along the Clyde, just south of Helensburgh.

    Anyway, the point is that Faslane is very close to the Highlands, as I said. Geologically it's actually in them.
    There are 265 miles from Faslane to John O'Groaths, all covered by the Highlands.

    That is more than the distance from London to Manchester
    So what?

    The Highlands are a big place.

    You are completely wrong about this HY and if I were you I'd just back out now. Or take a look at the map of the Highlands which has Faslane in them.

    The geological fault, which is so interesting, runs right down the Clyde, well to the south of Faslane.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Highlands#/media/File:Scottish_Highlands_and_Lowlands.png

    I do know what I'm talking about. And if you don't believe me then a geologist will explain it to you in this Michael Portillo programme. The geologist Dr Ian Neill, Geologist and Lecturer at the University of Glasgow. Your re-education begins at the 3 minute mark:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0014kz5/great-coastal-railway-journeys-series-1-17-helensburgh-to-connel
    I have to say I am pleased how often geology is coming up in these discussions the last few days. :)
    Well shouldn't we all be? Discussing geology rocks.
    You are generous to a fault.
  • nico679 said:


    Scott_xP said:

    sclerotic

    EU announces it has agreed unanimously amongst all member countries to take in Ukrainian refugees fir up to 3 years without asking them to first apply for asylum. Just been announced following a meeting of EU Interior ministers
    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1498017173792514051

    Great news . What a wonderful gesture of solidarity . God bless the EU .
    On behalf of my fellow citizens, thank you!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598
    edited February 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    The warheads are actually in underground magazines on the other side of the loch. The subs have to go round the headland into Loch Long to get loaded up.

    There are all sorts of mysterious rail lines and big fences around Arrochar too. And some weird stuff north of the Skye Bridge on Raasay and Applecross. And at Torridon.
    Loch Ewe certainly has a big base of some kind - I think it is a NATO fuel store?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I wonder why they didn't park them up at Scapa? Was always going to be controversial having them near the central belt.

    Deep water access? Too stormy up there? Easier to hit with an air strike?
    I don't know, specifically, but logistics wise it would have been tricky.

    Citation required, but I read it was partly something about exit routes. Faslane has fewer of them, but they're easy to guard from shore. The Russians would find it hard to tail a sub without being detected. If the base went straight into open water, it would be easier.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Yokes said:

    US is reportedly telling its citizens to exit Russia whilst they still can according to NYTimes.

    I'd say the same should apply to British citizens and all NATO countries, although I don't exactly know how given air routes have closed.
    I'm a bit unclear about this. Is it the routes have been closed, or certain airlines banned from them?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Scott_xP said:

    It's a tease and he sets himself up for it. No need for toys out of the pram on this one. :smile:

    Speaking of which, I found Sean's next wife...

    Anastasia Lenna, Miss Grand Ukraine 2015, now taking up arms to defend her country from madman Putin's invaders. In 100 years - 1000 years - the world will talk of the courage of the Ukrainian people in these days. https://twitter.com/TonyParsonsUK/status/1497962160361721860/photo/1




    She looks a bit like Jennifer Lawrence. Shame she's not got a bow and arrow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Massive Russian convoy seen outside Kyiv

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gDmMVzjIVw

    That sound you hear, is SU-25 pilots drooling......
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    ydoethur said:

    PJohnson said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    More seriously (BBC journalist).
    Russian troops are in Berdyansk. They're getting closer to Mariupol. Also not clear about the northern direction - Volnovakha I heard was totally cut off by Russian troops. They're encircling Mariupol from all sides.
    https://twitter.com/abdujalil/status/1497998348992798730

    It certainly looks as if the southern front is the one that the Russians are winning. Hard to know whether by accident or design.
    The amphibious landing force has probably helped them there. In general, I think that we're all celebrating the failure of the invason a bit prematurely - it's only been going for a few days and Kyiv is apparently surrounded. Not clear what the Russians plan next there, though - fighting for it street by street must sound unappealing to the most gung-ho general.
    Yes you are correct Nick what you WANT to happen is not the same as what will happen
    Are you still here? I hope you end up in the Hague with Putin and Lukeshenko. William Joyce of course got his comeuppance at Nuremberg.
    PJohnson said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    More seriously (BBC journalist).
    Russian troops are in Berdyansk. They're getting closer to Mariupol. Also not clear about the northern direction - Volnovakha I heard was totally cut off by Russian troops. They're encircling Mariupol from all sides.
    https://twitter.com/abdujalil/status/1497998348992798730

    It certainly looks as if the southern front is the one that the Russians are winning. Hard to know whether by accident or design.
    I think peak ukrainian resistance is over
    Are you still here?

    I look forward to seeing you in the Hague alongside Putin and Lukashenko.

    It didn't end well for William Joyce did it?
    Joyce was actually tried at the Old Bailey, not at Nuremberg. Only senior members of the Nazi party were tried at Nuremberg.
    Was he not technically British either, so really was wrongfully convicted?
    American by birth, I had thought him Irish. I learned that when I went to correct my error that Vanilla re-saved after deletion and posted anyway.
    Clearly I wasn’t there at the time, but I’ve always felt he was a bit hard done to. He took German citizenship and then broadcast for his (now) country. Executing him for treason feels wrong. No doubt passions were running high.
    IIRC The prosecution successfully argued that though he'd obtained a UK passport fraudulently, he had taken advantage of it, and therefore owed allegiance....
    Yes, I diverted to Wikipedia. I still still think he was hard done by, but you take your chance on siding with another country in wartime...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is how it ends...


    Tsar Nicholas II was not overthrown because the war was going badly, although it could have been going somewhat better.

    He wasn't overthrown because he was a rich man and all the Russians were poor, although this was probably suboptimal.

    He wasn't overthrown because of his wife's emotional reliance on a sex crazed drunken starets, although that didn't help.

    No, the actual reason was that the points had frozen on the main railway line into Petrograd, leaving both its people and the military garrison short of flour and therefore bread. Once those two groups began rioting, he was finished.

    I wonder if this might be the start of something similar.

    Fortunately for the world, Nicolai Alexeivitch didn't have nuclear weapons. Unlike Putin...
    Inronically the Tsar was probably a better Russian leader than most of those who succeeded him, with the exception of maybe Gorbachev and Yeltsin, certainly from a western perspective
    I'd put him behind Khrushchev. Khrushchev at least tried to make things better. He mostly failed, but unlike most of the others including Nicholas he made the effort.

    But you know, saying that somebody was better than Lenin, Stalin or Brezhnev is setting the bar pretty low.
    To an extent, the Cuban Missile Crisis happened under Kruschev.

    You also now have to add Putin alongside Lenin, Stalin and Breshnev
    As did Hungary. As did the Novocherkassk massacre. And the Sino-Soviet split. And the anti-church campaign.

    But so did the Virgin Lands, men in space, a doubling of the size of Soviet housing stock and the first visit by a Russian leader to the west while in office.

    He had lots of faults. But he had his good points too.

    It's therefore rather bitterly ironic that he's chiefly remembered in Russia and the other republics via the word Khrushchevka - meaning a slum. Because those houses he built in the cheap in a hurry to give them a place to live are still there and still cheap and nasty.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    The warheads are actually in underground magazines on the other side of the loch. The subs have to go round the headland into Loch Long to get loaded up.

    There are all sorts of mysterious rail lines and big fences around Arrochar too. And some weird stuff north of the Skye Bridge on Raasay and Applecross. And at Torridon.
    Loch Ewe certainly has a big store of some kind.
    Probably Loch Ewe POL (Petrol, Oil, Lubricants) base.

    https://www.secretscotland.org.uk/index.php/Secrets/LochEwePOLDepot
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited February 2022
    Ratters said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    PJohnson said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    More seriously (BBC journalist).
    Russian troops are in Berdyansk. They're getting closer to Mariupol. Also not clear about the northern direction - Volnovakha I heard was totally cut off by Russian troops. They're encircling Mariupol from all sides.
    https://twitter.com/abdujalil/status/1497998348992798730

    It certainly looks as if the southern front is the one that the Russians are winning. Hard to know whether by accident or design.
    The amphibious landing force has probably helped them there. In general, I think that we're all celebrating the failure of the invason a bit prematurely - it's only been going for a few days and Kyiv is apparently surrounded. Not clear what the Russians plan next there, though - fighting for it street by street must sound unappealing to the most gung-ho general.
    Yes you are correct Nick what you WANT to happen is not the same as what will happen
    I think we can allow ourselves a cheer, though, that the invasion has gone much less well than we feared. Every day it goes on costs Vlad another $20bn. Every tank taken out of operation by the Ukrainians sets the Russians back. Five days ago, the fear was that the Ukraine would be the first domino, which would be followed by The Baltics, Georgia, Poland, Scandinavia... The heroism of the Ukrainians has made the second step that much more difficult for Vlad.
    I debunked that number. Just about credible in Roubles.

    $20bn a day is the entire Russian GDP in 11 weeks.
    Assuming your figure is correct, it'll be the entire Russian GDP in around 20 weeks when markets open tomorrow and the Ruble tanks.

    Chameleon said:

    #BREAKING: EU countries will provide #Ukraine with 'fighter jets' under Brussels funding, says
    @JosepBorrellF

    https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1498030112230592512

    Wow. Hopefully the US gives them some drones as well.

    That's pointless for immediate use, given crew (pilot and ground) training times. Unless Germany and others still have some serviceable MIG-29s?
    I think Poland has Mig 29 - and I think Germany sold all their Mig-29s to Poland....
    Most of the time these days shot down or mechanical breakdown means that crew eject and survive.

    Also planes have been destroyed on the ground.

    So gaps will need to be filled. Though I'm sure that training some pilots in case it drags out would be one plan.

    Drones need to be Turkish (what they are used to) or easy to fly, or have mercenary pilots supplied.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I haven't been following the discussion, but I don't think of Faslane as being 'Highlands'. It's too near Glasgow for it to be 'Highlands', demographically, geographically, or culturally. It's close, though.

    And since, perhaps uniquely on PB, I've walked around the lot (excepting the islands), I'll put myself as an authority. ;)
    It's most certainly in the Highlands. It's NW of the Highlands Boundary Fault, in the bits which go up and down and are covered with heather, rocks and sheep, grouse and deer shite:

    http://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Rosneath_Peninsula_and_Loch_Long_-_an_excursion#/media/File:GSG_GLA_FIG_13_01.jpg
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a tease and he sets himself up for it. No need for toys out of the pram on this one. :smile:

    Speaking of which, I found Sean's next wife...

    Anastasia Lenna, Miss Grand Ukraine 2015, now taking up arms to defend her country from madman Putin's invaders. In 100 years - 1000 years - the world will talk of the courage of the Ukrainian people in these days. https://twitter.com/TonyParsonsUK/status/1497962160361721860/photo/1




    She looks a bit like Jennifer Lawrence. Shame she's not got a bow and arrow.
    Good trigger discipline. Very clean weapon. Nice touch on the shooting glasses.
  • Hard bastards.

    AFP News Agency
    @AFP
    #BREAKING FIFA bans Russian national anthem and flag from international games - official

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498014811350839300
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is how it ends...


    Tsar Nicholas II was not overthrown because the war was going badly, although it could have been going somewhat better.

    He wasn't overthrown because he was a rich man and all the Russians were poor, although this was probably suboptimal.

    He wasn't overthrown because of his wife's emotional reliance on a sex crazed drunken starets, although that didn't help.

    No, the actual reason was that the points had frozen on the main railway line into Petrograd, leaving both its people and the military garrison short of flour and therefore bread. Once those two groups began rioting, he was finished.

    I wonder if this might be the start of something similar.

    Fortunately for the world, Nicolai Alexeivitch didn't have nuclear weapons. Unlike Putin...
    Inronically the Tsar was probably a better Russian leader than most of those who succeeded him, with the exception of maybe Gorbachev and Yeltsin, certainly from a western perspective
    I'd put him behind Khrushchev. Khrushchev at least tried to make things better. He mostly failed, but unlike most of the others including Nicholas he made the effort.

    But you know, saying that somebody was better than Lenin, Stalin or Brezhnev is setting the bar pretty low.
    To an extent, the Cuban Missile Crisis happened under Kruschev.

    You also now have to add Putin alongside Lenin, Stalin and Breshnev
    Khrushchev and his shoe. A never to be forgotten sight.

  • What a pitiful sight to see Boris Johnson floundering like a fish our of water when questioned by one of our own MPs. As a Conservative party member I would challenge others to admit that we made a dreadful mistake putting this charlatan as leader and hence PM. As soon as this Ukraine crisis is past, if Putin has not vaporised us all, please can we replace him?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited February 2022
    "Klitschko's spokesperson denies that Kyiv is 'encircled.'
    In an interview with AP, Kyiv’s Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that ‘Kyiv was encircled’ but ready to fight.
    His spokesperson said that he misspoke, and that such information is “a lie and a manipulation."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498024824991625216?s=20&t=hF2uwRqWR91oy_-dtriK9g
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    The warheads are actually in underground magazines on the other side of the loch. The subs have to go round the headland into Loch Long to get loaded up.

    There are all sorts of mysterious rail lines and big fences around Arrochar too. And some weird stuff north of the Skye Bridge on Raasay and Applecross. And at Torridon.
    Loch Ewe certainly has a big base of some kind - I think it is a NATO fuel store?
    Oh yes there are! Remember all the big tanks up there.

    Some cracking Corbetts too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    I do wonder if the Russians planned for all this, or whether they generally believed they'd just march into Kyiv within 24 hours?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Sad. Saw that land here in the Flatlands a while back.

    It has a couple of slightly smaller cousins that visit more often - not sure how they are doing.
    My brother (or his part of the company) chartered one once to bring a gas turbine in. Although they are not that big, they are a heavy point load, and a 747F could not manage it.

    The funny thing is the power station is near East Midlands Airport. But the plane had to land at Prestwick, and the massive load travel south from there by road.

    (Why they needed a turbine so urgently is another story, one to do with backup systems failing. And then backups of backups.)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited February 2022
    ydoethur said:

    As an aside, how do schools do safeguarding in situations like this? Surely there are some schools with both Russian and Ukrainian students?

    Are there guidelines on how to deal with it? Talk to them first?

    I haven't received any yet.

    But so far all the Russians living here seem even more disgusted with Putin than the Ukrainians are, so I don't think they will cause trouble.

    Whether the Ukrainians will lash out without thinking of that I don't know, but again my impression is that they're not blaming the Russians.
    My son reporting what he deems a strategic success for Putin.

    One of his best friends is a Bosnian with strong links and regular trips back to his family's home village.

    Half of the males in the village have decamped to Ukraine to fight, where they have agreed to being organised in a unit with many of their co-linguists, namely Croats and Serbs. As they do all regard themselves as Slavs, whatever the ins and outs of that, it would seem that Putin is succeeding in uniting the Slavs.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598
    edited February 2022

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    The warheads are actually in underground magazines on the other side of the loch. The subs have to go round the headland into Loch Long to get loaded up.

    There are all sorts of mysterious rail lines and big fences around Arrochar too. And some weird stuff north of the Skye Bridge on Raasay and Applecross. And at Torridon.
    Loch Ewe certainly has a big store of some kind.
    Probably Loch Ewe POL (Petrol, Oil, Lubricants) base.

    https://www.secretscotland.org.uk/index.php/Secrets/LochEwePOLDepot
    Ah, yes, I remember now.

    The Loch was a base for the Russian Arctic Convoys too - usually take a walk out to the point (where there is a memorial) when in the vicinity.

    Back when we were on the same side...
  • Chameleon said:

    #BREAKING: EU countries will provide #Ukraine with 'fighter jets' under Brussels funding, says
    @JosepBorrellF

    https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1498030112230592512

    Wow. Hopefully the US gives them some drones as well.

    That's pointless for immediate use, given crew (pilot and ground) training times. Unless Germany and others still have some serviceable MIG-29s?
    I think Poland has Mig 29 - and I think Germany sold all their Mig-29s to Poland....
    Gatow museum still has a Mig 29 as part of its large GDR collection. A very nice young attendant called Christian told me that there was a bit of a stushie with present day Poland because they thought they’d bought the whole lot at a nominal sum and now fancied this one for their air museum.

    Don’t think it would do a battlefield turn now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    As an aside, how do schools do safeguarding in situations like this? Surely there are some schools with both Russian and Ukrainian students?

    Are there guidelines on how to deal with it? Talk to them first?

    I haven't received any yet.

    But so far all the Russians living here seem even more disgusted with Putin than the Ukrainians are, so I don't think they will cause trouble.

    Whether the Ukrainians will lash out without thinking of that I don't know, but again my impression is that they're not blaming the Russians.
    My son reporting a strategic success for Putin.

    One of his best friend's is a Bosnian with strong links and regular trips back to his family's home village.

    Half of the males in the village have decamped to Ukraine to fight, where they have agreed to being organised in a unit with many of their co-linguists, namely Croats and Serbs. As they do all regard themselves as Slavs, whatever the history of that, it would seem that Putin is succeeding in uniting the Slavs.
    Which side are they fighting for?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Foxy said:

    PJohnson said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    More seriously (BBC journalist).
    Russian troops are in Berdyansk. They're getting closer to Mariupol. Also not clear about the northern direction - Volnovakha I heard was totally cut off by Russian troops. They're encircling Mariupol from all sides.
    https://twitter.com/abdujalil/status/1497998348992798730

    It certainly looks as if the southern front is the one that the Russians are winning. Hard to know whether by accident or design.
    I think peak ukrainian resistance is over
    I think it has barely begun.

    There will be bloodletting on a grand scale before this is done, and lots will be Russian.
    It seems fairly clear that the Russians are fighting towards three main objectives at the moment.
    1. Take Kyiv and topple the government.
    2. Isolate the Donbas from the rest of Ukraine, thereby encircling the best Ukrainian army units which are on the line of control in Donetsk and Luhansk.
    3. Create a landbridge to Crimea.

    They're struggling on 1 and 2. They're not far from achieving 3, which is the easiest of the three.

    There's no sign of Ukrainian resistance crumbling.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Just a note on nuclear war: a strike on London would kill all the Russian oligarchs and kleptokrats and their families based here, not to mention all their wealth stored in London property and banks forever, and they'll be well connected enough with the Kremlin for him to be well aware of that. They're not insane even if he is.

    So, I'd treat threats like this with a pinch of salt.

    I doubt that right now Putin gives a flying fig about them. If he's mad enough to be threatening nuclear warfare he's not about to say, 'no wait, some of my former colleagues might get hit.'
    And only Essex is downwind…
    Actually on the Star map parts of Essex, eg Clacton, would be safer in the aftermath of Russan nuclear attacks than 80% of England, south Wales and Glasgow and Edinburgh
    And to be fair, many places like Milton Keynes would be radically improved.
    Why the hatred of MK? I have a friend who lives there, and it's not *that* bad. In fact, Gulliver's Kingdom/Land is rather good for a seven year old.

    Have you actually been to MK? I mean, it's not a countryside pastiche with thatched cottages and ancient churches (except for the absorbed villages), but it's okay.
    It’s better than Basingstoke, I’ll grant you that
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,322
    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817
  • HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is how it ends...


    Tsar Nicholas II was not overthrown because the war was going badly, although it could have been going somewhat better.

    He wasn't overthrown because he was a rich man and all the Russians were poor, although this was probably suboptimal.

    He wasn't overthrown because of his wife's emotional reliance on a sex crazed drunken starets, although that didn't help.

    No, the actual reason was that the points had frozen on the main railway line into Petrograd, leaving both its people and the military garrison short of flour and therefore bread. Once those two groups began rioting, he was finished.

    I wonder if this might be the start of something similar.

    Fortunately for the world, Nicolai Alexeivitch didn't have nuclear weapons. Unlike Putin...
    Inronically the Tsar was probably a better Russian leader than most of those who succeeded him, with the exception of maybe Gorbachev and Yeltsin, certainly from a western perspective
    He was personally not a sociopath, just a bit of a dim bulb. Can't help feeling that a small gardening job somewhere would have been a fitting end to him.
    Sue Townsend did a story about another branch of the family living normal lives.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    geoffw said:

    Cue Tom Lehrer to cheer us all up.
    We'll all go together when we go.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs

    Has this Not the Nine O Clock News sketch been posted yet?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny7nvnshhkg
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I haven't been following the discussion, but I don't think of Faslane as being 'Highlands'. It's too near Glasgow for it to be 'Highlands', demographically, geographically, or culturally. It's close, though.

    And since, perhaps uniquely on PB, I've walked around the lot (excepting the islands), I'll put myself as an authority. ;)
    It's most certainly in the Highlands. It's NW of the Highlands Boundary Fault, in the bits which go up and down and are covered with heather, rocks and sheep, grouse and deer shite:

    http://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Rosneath_Peninsula_and_Loch_Long_-_an_excursion#/media/File:GSG_GLA_FIG_13_01.jpg
    I am unconvinced, but I think we'll have to disagree. The Highlands is perhaps too large an area to be just one group, anyway - especially if you include the islands. Sutherland can be very different to Nairn or Argyll.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317

    Yokes said:

    US is reportedly telling its citizens to exit Russia whilst they still can according to NYTimes.

    I'd say the same should apply to British citizens and all NATO countries, although I don't exactly know how given air routes have closed.
    As far as I can work out you will have to fly via Istanbul, Dubai or Doha.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    edited February 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I haven't been following the discussion, but I don't think of Faslane as being 'Highlands'. It's too near Glasgow for it to be 'Highlands', demographically, geographically, or culturally. It's close, though.

    And since, perhaps uniquely on PB, I've walked around the lot (excepting the islands), I'll put myself as an authority. ;)
    It's most certainly in the Highlands. It's NW of the Highlands Boundary Fault, in the bits which go up and down and are covered with heather, rocks and sheep, grouse and deer shite:

    http://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Rosneath_Peninsula_and_Loch_Long_-_an_excursion#/media/File:GSG_GLA_FIG_13_01.jpg
    Ah, but would you consider Aberdeenshire/Laich of Moray the Highlands?

    I generally feel there is big change in the feel of the hills north of Tyndrum. South of there they don't really feel like the Highlands to me, but I'm biased.

    The Cairngorms have got their own vibe, which I'm starting to really appreciate as I get older. The low level walks/runs are just superb.

    I'm sure this all explained by the underlying geology.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    The warheads are actually in underground magazines on the other side of the loch. The subs have to go round the headland into Loch Long to get loaded up.

    There are all sorts of mysterious rail lines and big fences around Arrochar too. And some weird stuff north of the Skye Bridge on Raasay and Applecross. And at Torridon.
    Loch Ewe certainly has a big store of some kind.
    Probably Loch Ewe POL (Petrol, Oil, Lubricants) base.

    https://www.secretscotland.org.uk/index.php/Secrets/LochEwePOLDepot
    Ah, yes, I remember now.

    The Loch was a base for the Russian Arctic Convoys too - usually take a walk out to the point (where there is a memorial) when in the vicinity.

    Back when we were on the same side...
    And a bunch of the surrendered U Boats went there.

    Hence the "groan" grade joke at the end of the Cruel Sea.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited February 2022

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    Jesus.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Hard bastards.

    AFP News Agency
    @AFP
    #BREAKING FIFA bans Russian national anthem and flag from international games - official

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498014811350839300

    Surely Putin must surrender now!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    As an aside, how do schools do safeguarding in situations like this? Surely there are some schools with both Russian and Ukrainian students?

    Are there guidelines on how to deal with it? Talk to them first?

    I haven't received any yet.

    But so far all the Russians living here seem even more disgusted with Putin than the Ukrainians are, so I don't think they will cause trouble.

    Whether the Ukrainians will lash out without thinking of that I don't know, but again my impression is that they're not blaming the Russians.
    My son reporting a strategic success for Putin.

    One of his best friend's is a Bosnian with strong links and regular trips back to his family's home village.

    Half of the males in the village have decamped to Ukraine to fight, where they have agreed to being organised in a unit with many of their co-linguists, namely Croats and Serbs. As they do all regard themselves as Slavs, whatever the history of that, it would seem that Putin is succeeding in uniting the Slavs.
    Which side are they fighting for?
    The Ukranian side.

    Yes, I imagine that question does need to be asked.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I haven't been following the discussion, but I don't think of Faslane as being 'Highlands'. It's too near Glasgow for it to be 'Highlands', demographically, geographically, or culturally. It's close, though.

    And since, perhaps uniquely on PB, I've walked around the lot (excepting the islands), I'll put myself as an authority. ;)
    Bloody hell. "Highlands" is not some sort of sociological or demographic construct, it's a fact of life. Look on a map.

    Not quite sure what you have "walked around" the lot of but a lot of us have been there. Indeed there's actual Scots who post here who probably know almost as much about it as you do.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited February 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I wonder why they didn't park them up at Scapa? Was always going to be controversial having them near the central belt.

    Deep water access? Too stormy up there? Easier to hit with an air strike?
    Scapa has quite a lot of undersea hazards :smile:

    Mainly with German names, but one called "Royal Oak".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    That thermobaric bomb?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598
    alex_ said:

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    Jesus.
    Thermobaric by the look of it. At least, one hopes so.

    What exactly was that aimed at? (If it is current)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    In the latest attempts by Russian trolls we have
    zerohedge
    @zerohedge
    ·
    3m
    Former White House Physician Says Biden Is Not Cognitively Fit To Deal With Russia Crisis
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    Thermobaric weapon, perhaps?

    Alarming escalation if it is.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    The warheads are actually in underground magazines on the other side of the loch. The subs have to go round the headland into Loch Long to get loaded up.

    There are all sorts of mysterious rail lines and big fences around Arrochar too. And some weird stuff north of the Skye Bridge on Raasay and Applecross. And at Torridon.
    Loch Ewe certainly has a big store of some kind.
    Probably Loch Ewe POL (Petrol, Oil, Lubricants) base.

    https://www.secretscotland.org.uk/index.php/Secrets/LochEwePOLDepot
    Ah, yes, I remember now.

    The Loch was a base for the Russian Arctic Convoys too - usually take a walk out to the point (where there is a memorial) when in the vicinity.

    Back when we were on the same side...
    I like the sailors' name for Loch Eribol on the north coast.

    Loch 'Orrible.

    My granddad did some voyages from the north coast during the war. There's a picture of him on a frozen ship, where he looks the spitting image of me at the same age. Quite uncanny, especially as he was in the middle of a war.

    My generation have been so lucky.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1498039187009937417
    https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1498029093421563906

    Massive explosions plus big rocket launches tonight, going to be a grim night for civilians.

    On the plus side, the biggest army in europe is unable to prevent farmers with tractors taking their APCs on a journey while pissing themselves with laughter:

    https://twitter.com/aCloudX/status/1498028113342644228
    https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1498027274683174913
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMoaJbCXEAUd_14?format=png&name=900x900
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited February 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Aslan said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    If Putin has come to the end of the road he might try to take the rest of us with him.

    Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?”
    https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1498022807627829250
    Hell's bells.

    Someone needs to stop this madman. And fast.
    Moscow has had far more crazed nutcases than Putin over the decades and none of them launched nuclear weapons. They know full well Russia would be leveled if it happened. And they know that Russia will indeed "be in the world" if they don't. This is all an attempt to get others to back down. I.e. a bluff.
    His behaviour at the moment is eerily reminiscent of that of Brezhnev in his last years. Crazy foreign ventures. Threats of nuclear annihilation. Trying to sustain over-ambitious military spending at the expense of his country. Rampaging fraud and corruption in the government. The FSB extremely powerful.

    Brezhnev, of course, had dementia, complicated by cardiovascular problems and alcoholism.

    There may be more to these rumours about Putin's health.
    There could be, but I still don't really understand what's going on with him. He clearly is genuinely changed in some ways and embarked on a mad project to take Kiyiv, for instance, or to refer continually to 1940's history.

    Yet I wonder what other elements might be performance here, particularly now when he's terrifying the world. Could it be some very strange mixture of elaborately planned theatre, and genuine danger and illness ? It's really very strange. We have to take him to a considerable degree at his word when he's making these kinds of threats, ofcourse.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    gosh!!

    Have they exploded and oil/gas storage or is that one of those very big bombs, that somebody was talking about yesterday?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    Jesus.
    Thermobaric by the look of it. At least, one hopes so.

    What exactly was that aimed at? (If it is current)
    Could be a chemical plant.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I haven't been following the discussion, but I don't think of Faslane as being 'Highlands'. It's too near Glasgow for it to be 'Highlands', demographically, geographically, or culturally. It's close, though.

    And since, perhaps uniquely on PB, I've walked around the lot (excepting the islands), I'll put myself as an authority. ;)
    Bloody hell. "Highlands" is not some sort of sociological or demographic construct, it's a fact of life. Look on a map.

    Not quite sure what you have "walked around" the lot of but a lot of us have been there. Indeed there's actual Scots who post here who probably know almost as much about it as you do.
    You're a little feisty tonight.

    In fact, scratch that. You're a little feisty.

    As usual. ;)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    PJohnson said:

    PJohnson said:

    PJohnson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

    Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

    Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.


    Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
    The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
    We cannot base policy on wild hopes
    Who is 'We'?

    Most posters on PB know each other, in many cases personally but otherwise through reputation and thousands of posts. On the evidence of a handful of posts I should say you are a troll, and your views - if indeed they are yours - have attracted well-merited contempt.

    You don't speak for anybody except yourself and whoever might be marking your card.
    I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial
    You noticed?

    We like Sean. He’s like our own little pet tarantula. Vile, poisonous and icky. But strangely mesmerising.
    Spiders are venomous, not poisonous, and no tarantula is venomous to mankind. They are mesmerising I agree. Indian ornamentals especially.
    Ok. Fine. Sean is vile, venomous and icky. Happy now?

    And our red under the Reading bed called us “superficial”? Pffff.
    If a trans man or woman asked you to refer to them as “they” rather than by their birth gender I have no doubt you would do so out of politeness even if you disagree with their actions.

    So when @Leon has requested you stop calling him “Sean” why do you insist on doing so?
    It's a tease and he sets himself up for it. No need for toys out of the pram on this one. :smile:
    It may be a tease but I find it quite fucking annoying, and also boring, it's not good for the site - misidentifying people who wish to remain anonymous is A BAD INTERNET HABIT - and it also prevents me from ever attending things like the PB meets

    So, STOP , thanks very much

    By all means abuse me roundly for anything else. I don't mind that at all
    Oh fuck does that mean no you on Wednesday?

    Losing enthusiasm for the whole thing.
  • alex_ said:

    Yokes said:

    US is reportedly telling its citizens to exit Russia whilst they still can according to NYTimes.

    I'd say the same should apply to British citizens and all NATO countries, although I don't exactly know how given air routes have closed.
    I'm a bit unclear about this. Is it the routes have been closed, or certain airlines banned from them?
    My understanding is that it's the airspace to any Russian carrier.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    BigRich said:

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    gosh!!

    Have they exploded and oil/gas storage or is that one of those very big bombs, that somebody was talking about yesterday?
    I don't think gas or oil would go up quite like that without precursor flames?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    edited February 2022
    Whilst we all guess about whether our geography will be spared a nuclear strike, I'm absolutely stuffed. A lot of those NLAWS shipped to Ukraine were assembled here in town, so, you know, revenge and all that.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    BigRich said:

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    gosh!!

    Have they exploded and oil/gas storage or is that one of those very big bombs, that somebody was talking about yesterday?
    Thermobaric bombs is the best guess

    Either a similar bomb or the same explosion from a different angle. Ginormous


    https://twitter.com/mutahmett/status/1498022991724261385?s=20&t=5VRcrjSE8-1FHaY1x0FR0Q



    Putin has doubled down. He is going to Grozny Ukraine into submission. Hideous. Many thousands will die
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598

    ydoethur said:

    Aslan said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    If Putin has come to the end of the road he might try to take the rest of us with him.

    Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?”
    https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1498022807627829250
    Hell's bells.

    Someone needs to stop this madman. And fast.
    Moscow has had far more crazed nutcases than Putin over the decades and none of them launched nuclear weapons. They know full well Russia would be leveled if it happened. And they know that Russia will indeed "be in the world" if they don't. This is all an attempt to get others to back down. I.e. a bluff.
    His behaviour at the moment is eerily reminiscent of that of Brezhnev in his last years. Crazy foreign ventures. Threats of nuclear annihilation. Trying to sustain over-ambitious military spending at the expense of his country. Rampaging fraud and corruption in the government. The FSB extremely powerful.

    Brezhnev, of course, had dementia, complicated by cardiovascular problems and alcoholism.

    There may be more to these rumours about Putin's health.
    There could be, but I still don't really understand what's going on with him. He clearly is genuinely changed in some ways and embarked on a mad project to take Kiyiv, for instance, or to refer continually to 1940's history.

    Yet I wonder what other elements might be performance here, particularly now when he's terrifying the world. Could it be some very strange mixture of elaborately planned theatre and genuine danger and illness, I wonder. We have to take him to a considerable degree at his word when he's making these kinds of threats, ofcourse.
    The rounded face could be either Botox or steroids..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    Jesus.
    Thermobaric by the look of it. At least, one hopes so.

    What exactly was that aimed at? (If it is current)
    Could be a chemical plant.
    It looks from the tweets below as though there's been more than one explosion of that size.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1498039187009937417
    https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1498029093421563906

    Massive explosions plus big rocket launches tonight, going to be a grim night for civilians.

    On the plus side, the biggest army in europe is unable to prevent farmers with tractors taking their APCs on a journey while pissing themselves with laughter:

    https://twitter.com/aCloudX/status/1498028113342644228
    https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1498027274683174913
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMoaJbCXEAUd_14?format=png&name=900x900

    That tractor stealing the APC makes me love Ukraine even more.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Heathener said:

    As an aside, how do schools do safeguarding in situations like this? Surely there are some schools with both Russian and Ukrainian students?

    Are there guidelines on how to deal with it? Talk to them first?

    +1

    I was chatting to a friend in Surrey today about this exact point. There are both Russian and Ukrainian children in the same school.

    I had a class with refugees from both sides in the Iran -Iraq war in it.
    Two of them became firm friends. They were an odd couple. One a short, bespectacled weedy Iraqi radiologist, the other a giant Iranian heavyweight wrestler figure. They were inseparable. Turns out they'd fought in the same sector. And the Iraqi had probably X-rayed folk the Iranian had shot.
    They had a catchphrase like the Two Ronnies.
    "I break them."
    "And I fix it again."
  • Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24

    Russian ship vs Georgian maintenance ship.

    - You Russian?
    - Yes.
    - We refuse to refuel your ship.
    - Who speaks?
    - Assistant captain from Georgia. “Russian ship, go fuck yourself”

    - But we run on fumes.
    - Ok, start rowing then you fucking invaders!

    😂
    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497993998904045580
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited February 2022
    Yesterday multiple Russian propaganda outlets posted the following essay, before rapidly deleting it:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498025819054264328

    Talks about 'solving the Ukrainian question' for future generations and 'uniting the Russian people'

    Full English translation in the comments here: https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969

    Just incredible stuff, points to the full annexation of Ukraine and Belarus into Russia.

    It's insane and unhinged.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Yokes said:

    US is reportedly telling its citizens to exit Russia whilst they still can according to NYTimes.

    I'd say the same should apply to British citizens and all NATO countries, although I don't exactly know how given air routes have closed.
    I'm a bit unclear about this. Is it the routes have been closed, or certain airlines banned from them?
    My understanding is that it's the airspace to any Russian carrier.
    So people can get out on non-Russian carriers (where there hasn't been reciprocal measures)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, this isn't mere play. If you talk to the residents around Faslane they are acutely aware that it would be the No.1 nuclear target.

    So, no, some of the Highlands are certainly not the safest place to be.

    (I'm assuming everyone knows it's the home of our Trident nuclear subs)

    Kay word 'parts', as I pointed out the distance from the top to the bottom of the Highlands is longer than the distance between London and the North of England.

    Plus of course the whole reason at least 1 submarines with Trident nuclear missiles on board is always on patrol 24/7 is that in the event of nuclear war the UK PM from his bunker could still order a nuclear missile attack on Moscow or whereever the nuclear attack on the UK came from even if Faslane had been hit (though in reality it would almost certainly only be Moscow or Bejing being the 2 capitals of our potential enemies with nuclear weapons). 1 Trident nuclear missile is the equivalent of 8 Hiroshimas on its own
    But Glasgow is on the border of the Highlands. At the Faslane part.
    I haven't been following the discussion, but I don't think of Faslane as being 'Highlands'. It's too near Glasgow for it to be 'Highlands', demographically, geographically, or culturally. It's close, though.

    And since, perhaps uniquely on PB, I've walked around the lot (excepting the islands), I'll put myself as an authority. ;)
    Bloody hell. "Highlands" is not some sort of sociological or demographic construct, it's a fact of life. Look on a map.

    Not quite sure what you have "walked around" the lot of but a lot of us have been there. Indeed there's actual Scots who post here who probably know almost as much about it as you do.
    In my experience the English tend to be pretty knowledgeable about the Highlands. They go on holiday, and they fall in love.

    Indeed, Skye is basically the Home Counties + plus mad Dutch drivers nowadays.

    I know what JJ means. Argyll is distinct from Assynt. Perthshire from the Cuillin. Speyside from Caithness.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Looks like an absolutely massive explosion in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817

    What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculty, in form and moving how express and admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god, the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals!
  • It's possible Putin is like Hitler and believes that if he can't have his greater Russia then the whole world should burn, including his own people.

    If that is the case then his inner circle need to dispatch him - quickly.
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