The fog of war – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Sweden will not be joining NATO before October.StuartDickson said:Swedish PM:
Sweden will not be joining NATO.
Not sure it’s her decision to make. She’ll probably be out of office in September.
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Liz Truss answered instinctively, and in the liberal tradition of England to be fair to her, didn’t she? A country that for centuries is happy to provide a safe haven to radical people of all sorts of views, who could be unsafe if they didn’t flee homeland, even Lenin and Stalin lived in London, in Chelsea I think.StillWaters said:
They were Ill-advised.Scott_xP said:I understand that Liz Truss's surprising comments on Brits going to fight in Ukraine this morning took No 10 by surprise...
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-secretary-liz-truss-back-26341016
To be fair to her she realised halfway through she’d screwed up and started to back peddle
Truss did mean whatever your views on this war, British passport holder, but with family ties with one of the protagonists, it’s okay to go and fight for them in this war and come back in afterwards. So politically and morally that is right, fits in with our history and what UK has always been about, just legally it’s tricky?
It would be how it all ties up legally would be a problem wouldn’t it. In this case it’s straightforward in layman’s eyes - Putin, and a few dozen bastards in a bunker, versus the rest of the world, but courts would need something for less clear cut cases where one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter?0 -
First strike? Oh dear. Not a good development.Casino_Royale said:
I just don't think NATO would needlessly target civilians whatever happened.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not sure about that last point. One strategic problem Russia has always had is that it is basically two cities, Moscow and StP. Russia would have to take out a dozen Western Cities to achieve equivalence.Casino_Royale said:My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
Incidentally, isn't there a major problem with the idea of Russia nuking Kyiv in that it would certainly damage Belarus and parts of Russia too?
Of course, it needs to claim it might because that might be the only deterrent that could stop Russia from doing the same to ours.0 -
That is excellent news. Congrats. And so good to have something positive on an otherwise bleak and grim world-weary day.Big_G_NorthWales said:In all the bleak and depressing news our son and daughter in law and their two children called round this afternoon and announced that no three is due on the 1st September
Total surprise but wonderful news and our 5th grandchild
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What's that worth, a buck and a half?Peter_the_Punter said:
Fancy a bet, Bart? I say more than 10%.BartholomewRoberts said:
Only 10%?Sandpit said:
What’s the cost of the ruble dropping 10% against the US$ in the past week?alex_ said:
Dunno - what is the cost of the military kit he has allegedly lost so far? Although that is a sunk cost.ping said:
Yea. That figure is whiffy.Foxy said:
I don't know where that sum comes from. War is expensive, but not that expensive, at least in direct terms. Possibly the knock on effect for the economy would be.alex_ said:
When the war is costing £20b a day that won’t go farMattW said:
It seems a very good reason for preserving some oil/gas fields, or opening up a new one or two.Taz said:
Agreed, but the green lobby won’t allow it. High gas prices are desirable to ensure moving away from gas. They don’t care about the effect on people. Renewables are the desired end game but we don’t want to impoverish people getting there.Luckyguy1983 said:
We need to be energy secure - in surplus if possible. If that comes from good renewables, so much the better. But if it comes from fuels which dare not speak their name, we just have to live with it for the time being.not_on_fire said:
We need to double down on the eco stuff. The less reliance on gas the better.FrancisUrquhart said:
Also going to require a lot of the media pundits to do some serious rewriting of their positions. Boris continuously criticised for not even going anywhere near far enough on the eco-stuff.Scott_xP said:Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.
This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1497941840133296130
'Excuses' available include helping Germany out of the hole it has currently dug for itself.
It is very notable though seldom mentioned that Energy Supplies have been left out of the EU sanctions package, like silk scarves from Milan. I make it that Nordstream 1 is worth about a billion a week to Russia.
What’s the cost of it dropping 10% more tomorrow, as the ATMs in Moscow run out of cash and credit cards stop working?
That seems optimistic.
How much you want - shall we say 1,000 roubles?
I'd be on the same side as the bet as you hence my 'only'.1 -
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.Yokes said:If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.5 -
Can we get gas from Iraq without going through Russia? I ask because of this article from 2020:
https://warsawinstitute.org/russias-rosneft-paid-exorbitant-amount-mystery-consultant-kurdistan/
"In early 2019, Rosneft agreed to convert $1.8 billion of its advances into a 60 percent stake in the oil pipeline that provides the only route for the company to export the region’s oil."0 -
Awww.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
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Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. Currency market formally opens tomorrow. This is brutal. https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108/photo/14
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No one. They are writing it off.rottenborough said:
Who are they going to sell it to?MaxPB said:
Wow. That's absolutely huge. Good on BP shareholders for forcing the issue.Scott_xP said:huge breaking news at BP:
- BP to exit its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft
- BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect
- https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/14979805394831728721 -
So with the Russian nuclear forces now on alert, and possibly ours to follow, we are in a scenario where all sides will have to be as clear as possible to avoid accidental escalation: https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1497937591710195717 over a period of months to years.
I think that means Boris has to go. We need, at a minimum, a Prime Minister who is in control of their own mouth. Boris isn't.0 -
This will presumably be followed by the immediate resignation of the Chairman who permitted the company's exposure to such high risk stock.Scott_xP said:the statement from BP says the company will write down up to $25bn at the end of the first quarter as a result of the Rosneft exit
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/14979859875065446420 -
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Ha!4 -
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:2 -
Isn’t that effectively transferring a certain fraction of the worth of the company to the Russians?Richard_Tyndall said:
No one. They are writing it off.rottenborough said:
Who are they going to sell it to?MaxPB said:
Wow. That's absolutely huge. Good on BP shareholders for forcing the issue.Scott_xP said:huge breaking news at BP:
- BP to exit its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft
- BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect
- https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/14979805394831728723 -
Any PBer got any roubles they want to offload? I'm offering $1 for 500. Any takers?Scott_xP said:Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. Currency market formally opens tomorrow. This is brutal. https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108/photo/1
In my element here. 0 -
I just hope there's no accidents or crossed wires. I don't have too much faith in rational game theory on this one.JosiasJessop said:
It would depend on the target. If the targets are in Ukraine, I would *not* respond with nukes. I would get a worldwide moratorium on Russia and everything Russian. Make them a pariah state (more so than at the moment).Casino_Royale said:My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
Sadly, we may need to respond with nukes if the targets were anywhere outside Ukraine.
What worries me is if Russia used chemical or biological weapons. They have the capability, and we don't. Our only response is nuclear.
https://boingboing.net/2017/04/07/that-dr-stranglove-scene-wher.html1 -
For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497966928815603715
One way that the West could increase likelihood of this outcome is to enact sanctions on more members of the intelligence services and the military further down the chain, as well as their families. Eg. General officers and even colonels https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/14979825597828464780 -
That was close! The post stopped Moscow FC from going in the lead in the Cup Final.0
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I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is now over. I hope I'm right.0
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Apparently the Russians have form for kidnapping when inviting people to talks. I hope Zelensky is careful or not going himself.0
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It was a mistake by Truss. A forgiveable mistake.MoonRabbit said:
Liz Truss answered instinctively, and in the liberal tradition of England to be fair to her, didn’t she? A country that for centuries is happy to provide a safe haven to radical people of all sorts of views, who could be unsafe if they didn’t flee homeland, even Lenin and Stalin lived in London, in Chelsea I think.StillWaters said:
They were Ill-advised.Scott_xP said:I understand that Liz Truss's surprising comments on Brits going to fight in Ukraine this morning took No 10 by surprise...
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-secretary-liz-truss-back-26341016
To be fair to her she realised halfway through she’d screwed up and started to back peddle
Truss did mean whatever your views on this war, British passport holder, but with family ties with one of the protagonists, it’s okay to go and fight for them in this war and come back in afterwards. So politically and morally that is right, fits in with our history and what UK has always been about, just legally it’s tricky?
It would be how it all ties up legally would be a problem wouldn’t it. In this case it’s straightforward in layman’s eyes - Putin, and a few dozen bastards in a bunker, versus the rest of the world, but courts would need something for less clear cut cases where one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter?
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I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.0 -
85h of defence.Intimidation of 🇺🇦 is imprudent. Its impossible to break our defenders,moreover its impossible to make the Kyiv lay down arms.The times are difficult,but it will pass.🇺🇦 will win.We’re already winning.Therefore, we advise the occupiers to go home. It's not too late https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1497982463334928391/photo/10
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I'd say that 10-20 billion $ pa is within my margin of error, especially as I named no currency (rcs1000 said:
I think you are a little high with that estimate.MattW said:I make it that Nordstream 1 is worth about a billion a week to Russia.
Russian natural gas exports (total) are 6.5% of $400bn - or $25bn/year*. And their gas is exported through three major pipelines, half a dozen minor ones, and two LNG plants (Sakhalin-2 and Yamal).
Nordstream 1 is a big pipe, sending about 40BCM of gas a year, but it is smaller than the pipeline that runs through Ukraine (a 65BCM pipe).
Total exports of natural gas to non-former USSR countries are about 185BCM a year, so Nordstream 1 is probably more like $1bn every six weeks.
* That's the 2019 number. As gas contracts are mostly oil price linked, the number is probably a bit higher today, but almost certainly not more than $40bn. ) .
Some numbers here :https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/
Price about $250 per 1000 cm.
I simply went for the capacity of NS1 for a ballpark - 55 BCM.
Either way it's a lorra-lorra dosh they are still getting.0 -
Tomorrow, Russia will be outside global finances.
Few can travel there because almost all international flights have ceased.
Credit cards and other international means of payment will cease.
The stock market and Russian bonds will collapse.
Putin is a true disaster for Russia.
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/14979723676953108491 -
Zoom calls work!FrankBooth said:Apparently the Russians have form for kidnapping when inviting people to talks. I hope Zelensky is careful or not going himself.
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Good chance then we'll get rid of two bastard leaders before this ends.Yokes said:If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.0 -
Everything must change so that things can remain the same. Decision making in and between democracies can be slow, depressingly slow, but when things start to move, they can move quickly. We live in a Europe that is entirely different to the one that existed a week ago. This is beginning to feel like 1989.5
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Russia still has her smallpox samples.JosiasJessop said:
TimT's an expert on this sort of thing, but some biological weapons (proposed only, hopefully, or if developed long got rid of) were extremely nasty.alex_ said:
How much damage can chemical/biological weapons cause though? Obviously loads of deaths, but not the end of civilisation.JosiasJessop said:
It would depend on the target. If the targets are in Ukraine, I would *not* respond with nukes. I would get a worldwide moratorium on Russia and everything Russian. Make them a pariah state (more so than at the moment).Casino_Royale said:My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
Sadly, we may need to respond with nukes if the targets were anywhere outside Ukraine.
What worries me is if Russia used chemical or biological weapons. They have the capability, and we don't. Our only response is nuclear.
And we don't have a response. AIUI, until either Clinton or Obama, the official US response was to use nukes.0 -
I don't like the accusation of trolling but, truly, this really does sound like it's being written in the Kremlin.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.0 -
Yes, this time it might make sense. But who knows what media outlet the government might decide to ban next.Heathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
No reason this can’t be left to an independent regulator, rather than decided by a politician.2 -
There are some particularly lovely churches in Suceava. Very close to the Ukraine border though.Sandpit said:0 -
Might be the spur to the EU getting its own functioning armed forces - that have their own NATO Article 5 commitment.kle4 said:
If the distinction is less than Ukraine might more easily concede not to seek to join NATO, but presumably would make it less a concession to Russian eyes. And the wish to join the EU would remain.alex_ said:
At this rate Ukraine is going to be the most well equipped army in Europe. (Admittedly this is Sweden but) I do wonder a bit about whether there becomes a point whereby the distinction about NATO involvement or not is determined by boots on the ground is purely academic. And how that changes things (it probably explains Putin’s action today)BlancheLivermore said:Go Sweden!
Carl Bildt
@carlbildt
In the one country after the other what was unthinkable yesterday becomes necessary today. 🇸🇪 now announces sending also 5.000 AT4 antitank weapons to 🇺🇦. That’s substantial. It’s an effective weapon highly regarded by also the US Army.
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1497983633365286914
Ukraine effectively gets NATO by the back door?0 -
I have some sympathy for what you are saying. Momentarily we will go to bed self satisfied, but wake to the news the bbc that cuts through to a great many in Russia has been banned, whilst gibberish with no viewing figures in this country is the counterweight to that loss.Fishing said:
Exposing liars and disinformation is the right way to confront a dictatorship, not suspending free speech.Scott_xP said:Second, we will ban the Kremlin’s media machine in the EU.
The state-owned Russia Today and Sputnik, and their subsidiaries,
will no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war.
We are developing tools to ban their toxic and harmful disinformation in Europe. https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497973706831929348/photo/1
I think this is yet another mistake by the EU. I hope we don't make it.
If you are are so pent up with frustration can’t do more to help, perhaps because you were too slow, missed a boat and it’s too late, you end up just doing “stuff” some of it even counter productive?
If anybody had time to waste on Comical Ali awarded RT, then they are the lazy and useless smelly who have’t forked the compost in yet and never swill out their wheelie bin. Let’s call them out for what they are.0 -
Fantastic! Pass on the congrats of "an internet rando" (me).Big_G_NorthWales said:In all the bleak and depressing news our son and daughter in law and their two children called round this afternoon and announced that no three is due on the 1st September
Total surprise but wonderful news and our 5th grandchild1 -
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.MarqueeMark said:
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Ha!
3 -
Really? I feel the opposite.WhisperingOracle said:I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is over. I hope I'm right.
On what basis?0 -
Yes it all goes back to Rosneft. But the reason BP would have been involved was capital investment that was needed to run operations and upon which they get a return. By pulling out they are helping to isolate Rosneft from the investment sources they need to continue to operate. BP are taking a hit here but it seriously undermines the viability of Rosneft and their ability to operate.RobD said:
Isn’t that effectively transferring a certain fraction of the worth of the company to the Russians?Richard_Tyndall said:
No one. They are writing it off.rottenborough said:
Who are they going to sell it to?MaxPB said:
Wow. That's absolutely huge. Good on BP shareholders for forcing the issue.Scott_xP said:huge breaking news at BP:
- BP to exit its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft
- BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect
- https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/14979805394831728722 -
We all dropped out.BlancheLivermore said:Do only older people say "tuned into" these days?
(Who Timothy Leary?)1 -
Genuine question, would it make a big difference?StuartDickson said:Swedish PM:
Sweden will not be joining NATO.
Not sure it’s her decision to make. She’ll probably be out of office in September.0 -
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbcHeathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.-1 -
Zelenskiy's last statement, my sense of China playing a role behind the scenes, Putin having to accommodate things, and one of my general "feelings". Sometimes my "feelings" are right, such as early on in Covid about when it was starting to level out, and other times not so good, but I'm feeling more hopeful.Heathener said:
Really? I feel the opposite.WhisperingOracle said:I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is over. I hope I'm right.
On what basis?0 -
This doesn't sound good
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko's response when asked by AP's @FrancescaEbel if there are plans to evacuate civilians from the city
... after a few seconds silence....
"We can't do that, because all ways are blocked," he finally said. "Right now we are encircled."
https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/14979900615472169070 -
It would be somewhat par for the course of this fucked up campaign if it were the bankers wot won it.....WhisperingOracle said:
Yup. China will turn the screws and extract its demands, too. Settle this down or no help.MarqueeMark said:
The full banking crisis starts tomorrow though, when people can't their money out of branches....FrankBooth said:Should also mention because it isn't being mentioned enough elsewhere that the Russian central bank have appealed for calm after so many people tried to get their money out of ATMs.
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If you're not a troll, you are an excellent spoofPJohnson said:
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbcHeathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.6 -
Careful Heathener. Even the Kremlin isn't that pathetic. They could reasonably sue for libel.Heathener said:
I don't like the accusation of trolling but, truly, this really does sound like it's being written in the Kremlin.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.4 -
Most accusations of trolling are just frustration at an unliked opinion. But I cannot see how someone could genuinely hold the view that invasion was justifiable on the basis Putin was angry at not being listened to. That's so far beyond taking a view about seeking to address concerns.Heathener said:
I don't like the accusation of trolling but, truly, this really does sound like it's being written in the Kremlin.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.4 -
What are you on about?PJohnson said:
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbcHeathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.1 -
Opposite here. It's all going too well. Expecting a great clunking fist, not nuclear but say an overnight carpet bombing of Kyiv.WhisperingOracle said:I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is over. i hope I'm right,
1 -
That's good, finally all the Thatcher stuff will be relevant again, whcih should make political activists happy.SouthamObserver said:Everything must change so that things can remain the same. Decision making in and between democracies can be slow, depressingly slow, but when things start to move, they can move quickly. We live in a Europe that is entirely different to the one that existed a week ago. This is beginning to feel like 1989.
0 -
In the same vein, perhaps a lot of NATO troops could just take a holiday?Sandpit said:0 -
The Stuart Truth of the Ukraine Crisis.GarethoftheVale2 said:
If you're not a troll, you are an excellent spoofPJohnson said:
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbcHeathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Maybe it is Stuart? Maybe he's been out of work since the Romney election?2 -
This is shite.PJohnson said:
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbcHeathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
I've been reading some of RT (a channel on which I have been interviewed btw) and many of the articles are disgraceful. There is NO justification on any grounds for what Putin has done in Ukraine and his state broadcasting should not be permitted to broadcast in western Europe until his forces withdraw.0 -
We are relying on the tact and diplomatic finesse of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.0
-
Though it is worth pointing out that we never made it illegal to listen to Lord Haw Haw in WW2. I think you probably need to give people some credit for their ability to discern propaganda. The more important point is the one made earlier that a tit for tat would cut off many Russians from the BBC which is an important source of information.Heathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.1 -
Your two-year-old threatened to nuke you if she couldn't have some sweeties?Peter_the_Punter said:
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.MarqueeMark said:
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Ha!2 -
.
She launched wars of aggression ?Peter_the_Punter said:
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.MarqueeMark said:
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Ha!
Disturbing precocity.3 -
Even that's risky for tracking reasons. I suspect the Russians cant find him or his ministers as no indication of a deliberate strike against him. I thought the GRU operating incognito in Kiev might have given such an assault a crack early on but a lot of them appear to have picked up.nico679 said:
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.Yokes said:If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
Just one other note: I see occasional comments about the idea of Russian poor conscripts who barely know the right end of a gun being thrown into this conflict. The Russian military in-theater is majority contract professionals.0 -
Politically perhaps this will - as a side effect - spike any debate of a windfall tax.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yes it all goes back to Rosneft. But the reason BP would have been involved was capital investment that was needed to run operations and upon which they get a return. By pulling out they are helping to isolate Rosneft from the investment sources they need to continue to operate. BP are taking a hit here but it seriously undermines the viability of Rosneft and their ability to operate.RobD said:
Isn’t that effectively transferring a certain fraction of the worth of the company to the Russians?Richard_Tyndall said:
No one. They are writing it off.rottenborough said:
Who are they going to sell it to?MaxPB said:
Wow. That's absolutely huge. Good on BP shareholders for forcing the issue.Scott_xP said:huge breaking news at BP:
- BP to exit its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft
- BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect
- https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/14979805394831728720 -
No we aren't.Jonathan said:We are relying on the tact and diplomatic finesse of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
The time for tact was before Russia invaded. Macron tried that and it was a disaster (no objection to him trying).
Boris has been through this wonderfully blunt and untactful. Between Macron and Boris there was a good cop/bad cop dynamic.
That last thing that is needed at the minute is tact.3 -
I would just like to thank everyone who has commented on or liked our news of our 5th grandchild on the way for 1st Sept
This is such an amazing forum as we collectively, across the political divide, come together to celebrate good news
The very best of PB9 -
Putin is a great man who launched a massive miltiary invasion as a totally reasonable measure because people wouldn't return his emails about Ukrainians seeking nukes or something, hadn't you noticed?RobD said:
What are you on about?PJohnson said:
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbcHeathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.2 -
That could still happen. I have some feeling that the nuclear danger has subsided slightly, though.IshmaelZ said:
Opposite here. It's all going too well. Expecting a great clunking fist, not nuclear but say an overnight carpet bombing of Kyiv.WhisperingOracle said:I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is over. i hope I'm right,
0 -
Sounds about right.MarqueeMark said:
Your two-year-old threatened to nuke you if she couldn't have some sweeties?Peter_the_Punter said:
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.MarqueeMark said:
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Ha!2 -
Agreed. It's very dangerous to underestimate the Russians, and they can learn quickly.Yokes said:
Even that's risky for tracking reasons. I suspect the Russians cant find him or his ministers as no indication of a deliberate strike against him. I thought the GRU operating incognito in Kiev might have given such an assault a crack early on but a lot of them appear to have picked up.nico679 said:
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.Yokes said:If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
Just one other note: I see occasional comments about the idea of Russian poor conscripts who barely know the right end of a gun being thrown into this conflict. The Russian military in-theater is majority contract professionals.0 -
China could make some easy gains in Russia's disillusioned empire as a result of this.MarqueeMark said:
It would be somewhat par for the course of this fucked up campaign if it were the bankers wot won it.....WhisperingOracle said:
Yup. China will turn the screws and extract its demands, too. Settle this down or no help.MarqueeMark said:
The full banking crisis starts tomorrow though, when people can't their money out of branches....FrankBooth said:Should also mention because it isn't being mentioned enough elsewhere that the Russian central bank have appealed for calm after so many people tried to get their money out of ATMs.
(I don't particularly think the Chinese want to Empire-build in a European sense)0 -
Liverpool 1-0 Kremlin Blues
EDIT: Bugger, back to 0-00 -
The tectonic plates are going to be worn out soon they’re moving so much.1
-
So you believe in freedom of speech, right up to the point where you find it convenient to silence someone? And probably in no imprisonment without trial, right up to when you find a really nasy piece of work who hasn't *technically* broken any laws *yet.* It's not wishy-washy sentimentalism you dislike, it's civil liberties. I'd suggest a move to Moscow, you can pick up a really nice flat very reasonably if you pay in dollars.Heathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
0 -
Russia has already used nuclear and chemical weapons on our soil.JosiasJessop said:
It would depend on the target. If the targets are in Ukraine, I would *not* respond with nukes. I would get a worldwide moratorium on Russia and everything Russian. Make them a pariah state (more so than at the moment).Casino_Royale said:My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
Sadly, we may need to respond with nukes if the targets were anywhere outside Ukraine.
What worries me is if Russia used chemical or biological weapons. They have the capability, and we don't. Our only response is nuclear.
I don't think Putin has many boundaries.3 -
was for these unintended consequences the phrase “give war a chance” was invented.StuartDickson said:Swedish PM:
Sweden to send Ukraine cash, helmets and anti-tank weapons.
Will Putin consider this to be military assistance? If so, this may be the last you’ll ever hear from this particular troublesome Jock.
I may be drunk. I may be Christian. And this may be too deep. But this is God’s design. For all the pain, good can come from it too. Like people being brought back together, or finding each other for the first time, or seeing clearly, and connecting with their cause. (And cantankerous ex pat jocks with rubbish avatar they should have changed ages ago now disappearing off our site) good consequences. What befell Stephen may have been violent and horrible, but the consequence it proved catalyst to spread the good news around the world.
God designed the storms of winter, so we can know spring again.1 -
IMV the longer Putin rants and raves about nukes in the manner he is, the less likely he is to be able to use them. Sane people in the Russian chain of command are more likely to see sense.
What worries me is a quick, impromptu usage.0 -
At some point, the UK government has very serious thinking to do about what an entirely new EU and a NATO in which the German voice is so much louder means for us as a country. None of this would have seemed even remotely likely just a week ago. All past assumptions are gone.4
-
For a Dutch shunt..pigeon said:Liverpool 1-0 Kremlin Blues
EDIT: Bugger, back to 0-00 -
I missed this earlier so many congratulations Big_G. It is very true to say it gives everyone that little bit of hope in dark times.Big_G_NorthWales said:I would just like to thank everyone who has commented on or liked our news of our 5th grandchild on the way for 1st Sept
This is such an amazing forum as we collectively, across the political divide, come together to celebrate good news
The very best of PB3 -
You lived through the dick-shrivelling embarrassment of Lizzie Goes To Moscow, and you are still prepared to have a pop at Macron?BartholomewRoberts said:
No we aren't.Jonathan said:We are relying on the tact and diplomatic finesse of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
The time for tact was before Russia invaded. Macron tried that and it was a disaster (no objection to him trying).
Boris has been through this wonderfully blunt and untactful. Between Macron and Boris there was a good cop/bad cop dynamic.
That last thing that is needed at the minute is tact.
1 -
-
VAR saves Chelsea
Shame0 -
Not yetpigeon said:Liverpool 1-0 Kremlin Blues
EDIT: Bugger, back to 0-00 -
For FS just give it up. Brave, innocent men, women and children are dying as we speak. I am frankly not in the mood to listen to a pathetic apologist for a murderous despot.PJohnson said:
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed outalgarkirk said:
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?PJohnson said:
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the westChris said:
Not another one!state_go_away said:
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hoursLeon said:
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflictHeathener said:
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.FrancisUrquhart said:Belarus poised to declare war on Ukraine as special forces are 'loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.1 -
On the rights of Russian and Ukrainians in Donetsk.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/isolation?utm_source=url
… The art foundation was expelled, and its premises, the old insulation factory, taken over by Russian-backed separatists. They transformed it into a concentration camp and torture facility, which it remains, under Russian control, to this day. "Isolation" then took on yet a third meaning: not insulation materials, not the solitude of the artist, but the loneliness of the tortured. The art foundation itself moved to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
In the history of this one building, then, we can see three phases of the recent history of Ukraine: the Soviet Union (the factory), independent Ukraine (the experiment), and Russian occupation (the camp). This story has been told a few times in the West but is not, I think, very well known. It is a small part of the recent history of Ukraine that helps to explain why Ukrainians resist the way they do…
1 -
What’s your view of the endgame? Not sure we should be putting all our eggs in the basket where Putin changes his mind or suddenly throws his hands up and says he’s had enough.BartholomewRoberts said:
No we aren't.Jonathan said:We are relying on the tact and diplomatic finesse of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
The time for tact was before Russia invaded. Macron tried that and it was a disaster (no objection to him trying).
Boris has been through this wonderfully blunt and untactful. Between Macron and Boris there was a good cop/bad cop dynamic.
That last thing that is needed at the minute is tact.
At some point, someone, somewhere will have to be clever. Hopefully they are doing that now.
Is there a Russian general who doesn’t like this, who needs reassurances?0 -
I wish I shared your confidence.WhisperingOracle said:
That could still happen. I have some feeling that the nuclear danger has subsided slightly, though.IshmaelZ said:
Opposite here. It's all going too well. Expecting a great clunking fist, not nuclear but say an overnight carpet bombing of Kyiv.WhisperingOracle said:I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is over. i hope I'm right,
Am I the only one running through my plans for "what would we (Mrs. P and I) do in the event of a full-scale nuclear war"?
(Hint, none of the options involve long-term survival).2 -
No way he goes himself. Even if they kept their word on his safety DURING the talks it would expose his location afterwards.FrankBooth said:Apparently the Russians have form for kidnapping when inviting people to talks. I hope Zelensky is careful or not going himself.
0 -
Canada declared their airspace closed to Russian aircraft. Watching sanctions work in real time is fun. https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/14979941664958177280
-
Don't go there with Continental drift.SouthamObserver said:The tectonic plates are going to be worn out soon they’re moving so much.
That was yesterday.3 -
Boris is doing fine. He still has lots of questions to answer, but he's doing his job as PM reasonably well. Starmer also doing a good job - good support for the main theme, but adding ideas and pointing at shortfalls.BartholomewRoberts said:
No we aren't.Jonathan said:We are relying on the tact and diplomatic finesse of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
The time for tact was before Russia invaded. Macron tried that and it was a disaster (no objection to him trying).
Boris has been through this wonderfully blunt and untactful. Between Macron and Boris there was a good cop/bad cop dynamic.
That last thing that is needed at the minute is tact.
Also, despite all the disagreements it's pretty clear that the Western nations have great relationships with one another. Poland being able to clobber Germany with rhetoric!6 -
An interesting clip here. A Russian column being turned around by a bunch of civilians refusing to get out of the road.Yokes said:
Even that's risky for tracking reasons. I suspect the Russians cant find him or his ministers as no indication of a deliberate strike against him. I thought the GRU operating incognito in Kiev might have given such an assault a crack early on but a lot of them appear to have picked up.nico679 said:
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.Yokes said:If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
Just one other note: I see occasional comments about the idea of Russian poor conscripts who barely know the right end of a gun being thrown into this conflict. The Russian military in-theater is majority contract professionals.
https://twitter.com/IrmatovUzbek/status/1497968372910374918?t=pSR_NRzpNtpJMFvMlM_1UQ&s=190 -
The polls show S+V usually ahead of M+KD+C by a few points, so a change probably depends on willingness of the Moderates to team up with the Sweden Democrats. Have they softened on that?StuartDickson said:Swedish PM:
Sweden will not be joining NATO.
Not sure it’s her decision to make. She’ll probably be out of office in September.0 -
UvdL …
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497972564634882048
We are stepping up our support for Ukraine.
For the first time, the EU will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and equipment to a country under attack.
We are also strengthening our sanctions against the Kremlin.1 -
The EU bans RT
When Indy Scot joins the EU, Wee Eck would be banned.
Worth a point or two...1 -
Which Stephen? The protomartyr bloke? what has he to do with it?MoonRabbit said:
was for these unintended consequences the phrase “give war a chance” was invented.StuartDickson said:Swedish PM:
Sweden to send Ukraine cash, helmets and anti-tank weapons.
Will Putin consider this to be military assistance? If so, this may be the last you’ll ever hear from this particular troublesome Jock.
I may be drunk. I may be Christian. And this may be too deep. But this is God’s design. For all the pain, good can come from it too. Like people being brought back together, or finding each other for the first time, or seeing clearly, and connecting with their cause. (And cantankerous ex pat jocks with rubbish avatar they should have changed ages ago now disappearing off our site) good consequences. What befell Stephen may have been violent and horrible, but the consequence it proved catalyst to spread the good news around the world.
God designed the storms of winter, so we can know spring again.
Here's a feelgood piece of folklore
"In Ireland the holiday [boxing day] is sometimes called Wren Day, because in the past a wren would be killed and taken door-to-door by children asking for money in exchange for a wren’s feather, which people believed brought good luck."
I cannot imagine anything more sweet, harmless and deserving love and protection than a wren in the depths of winter. I wish the story were not true at all or at least not true of our neighbours.
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No you're not. I have been too. Thinking about bunker preparation, not that I really have one and what supplies to get.Benpointer said:
I wish I shared your confidence.WhisperingOracle said:
That could still happen. I have some feeling that the nuclear danger has subsided slightly, though.IshmaelZ said:
Opposite here. It's all going too well. Expecting a great clunking fist, not nuclear but say an overnight carpet bombing of Kyiv.WhisperingOracle said:I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is over. i hope I'm right,
Am I the only one running through my plans for "what would we (Mrs. P and I) do in the event of a full-scale nuclear war"?
(Hint, none of the options involve long-term survival).
We're teetering on the edge here with a total madman.0 -
That’s the one I posted? To be fair and honest I didn’t think it up - a Conservative MP tweeted it days ago when Starmer was insisting on immediate ban, and it made sense to me when I read it because the MP added the German banned it earlier this week, and that was the immediate Russian response.Richard_Tyndall said:
Though it is worth pointing out that we never made it illegal to listen to Lord Haw Haw in WW2. I think you probably need to give people some credit for their ability to discern propaganda. The more important point is the one made earlier that a tit for tat would cut off many Russians from the BBC which is an important source of information.Heathener said:
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.RobD said:
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.Heathener said:
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
On the other hand though, it seems odd Putin has banned his troops from having mobile phones, but is still allowing everyone in his country unfettered access to BBC news channel? We might actually do the banning before him, even though like you say Richard, our people have so much free access to range of news sources, why does our government not trust us?0
