Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
And look at how badly it's going for Russia, they're already asking for peace talks. It turns out those of us who thought Russia a spent force were correct.
Putin has just raised Russia's nuclear deterrent to 'special alert' and Russian troops are still fighting in Ukraine.
Does not look like a man about to sue for peace, looks more like the most dangerous period for the world since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962
Desperation. I refuse to believe that the commanders would fire a nuke. If anything the order to fire from Putin would result in him hanging by a lamppost outside the Kremlin. There's simply no way the Russian military command will go along with an actual first strike.
That's why I asked the Putin apologist about the percentage of the Russian leadership who were as mad as Putin. You have to be pretty mad to sacrifice not only your own life but the whole world to save a politician's career. I doubt Putin's that mad, even though the career is his own. Even if he were, it beggars belief that enough other people in the leadership would be mad enough to go along with it.
Peter Hitchens' wasp metaphor doesn't work well for anyone who knows even a little bit about wasps. Most species of wasps live by preying on insects and spiders, which they kill by stinging them -- whether or not the prey has "provoked" them.
There are even species of wasps that prey on other wasps, as I learned from a February 22nd article in the New York Times. The first wasp comes along and deposits its eggs in a plant, where the form a "gall". Then other wasps come along and lay their eggs in the developing wasp larvae. (These secondary parasites were thought to be a single species, Omyrus Labotus, but it turns out there are at least sixteen different species which look very much alike.)
Almost as though people using the analogy, or the bear analogy, are actually just trying to excuse the inexcusable by presenting it as some inviolate natural law even without the addition of having human sapience as well as instinct.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
You are spinning like mad here. I suspect what BR said was that China was the bigger threat to the UK, not to 'a European country like the UK', and that remains the case. Ukraine shares a large land border with Russia, has pockets of ethnic Russians, and has at times been under Russian control. If we were Ukraine, clearly Russia would be the bigger threat. We're not Ukraine, we don't have any of those features, so any hard headed assessment would conclude that China is the bigger threat to us.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
And look at how badly it's going for Russia, they're already asking for peace talks. It turns out those of us who thought Russia a spent force were correct.
Putin has just raised Russia's nuclear deterrent to 'special alert' and Russian troops are still fighting in Ukraine.
Does not look like a man about to sue for peace, looks more like the most dangerous period for the world since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962
Desperation. I refuse to believe that the commanders would fire a nuke.
I refused to believe that Putin would be stupid enough to invade ...
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
We cannot base policy on wild hopes
Who is 'We'?
Most posters on PB know each other, in many cases personally but otherwise through reputation and thousands of posts. On the evidence of a handful of posts I should say you are a troll, and your views - if indeed they are yours - have attracted well-merited contempt.
You don't speak for anybody except yourself and whoever might be marking your card.
I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial
You noticed?
We like Sean. He’s like our own little pet tarantula. Vile, poisonous and icky. But strangely mesmerising.
I can't help notice that you've ignored my earlier question about nuclear weapons.
Wouldn't you agree that this war is deeply regrettable? And that if Ukraine was nuclear armed, it wouldn't have happened? And therefore wouldn't you agree that the right thing for Russia - so they can avoid the countrymen returning in bodybags - and for the world is for Ukraine to be given nuclear weapons?
I’ve noticed they don’t answer awkward questions.
Straight from the playbook - remain mostly civil and pretend to be merely asking questions or putting forth a reasonable view, then ignore any questions that are raised or points about that view in fact being unreasonable, and act like there have never been any answers given the questions it supposedly raised. Then repeat.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
And look at how badly it's going for Russia, they're already asking for peace talks. It turns out those of us who thought Russia a spent force were correct.
Putin has just raised Russia's nuclear deterrent to 'special alert' and Russian troops are still fighting in Ukraine.
Does not look like a man about to sue for peace, looks more like the most dangerous period for the world since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962
Desperation. I refuse to believe that the commanders would fire a nuke.
I refused to believe that Putin would be stupid enough to invade ...
The military commanders have final say on a first strike. They actually have to fire the nuke and kill potentially millions of people and start a nuclear war that could result in tens of millions dead. Putin may be mad enough to order a first strike, yet it might be that order which leads to a coup as the military leaders simply refuse the order.
It's not like the movies where Putin has a big red "nuke" button. The order will go to multiple people and eventually a poor sod who has to fire it.
Militaries tend to obey orders , they are not debating shops , if a reasonably democratic nation like the USA can order nukes dropped on Japan and their officers in charge of doing it did it (on two occasions after presumably knowing what happened after the first ) then I dont want to put much confidence in a Russian officer disobeying a dictator when given such an order. Putin needs a way out and its needed fast
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
And look at how badly it's going for Russia, they're already asking for peace talks. It turns out those of us who thought Russia a spent force were correct.
Does not look like a man about to sue for peace, looks more like the most dangerous period for the world since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962
It's even more dangerous that that, surely? And by some margin? We have an actual war not a stand-off, with blood being spilled in bitter battle on the ground. We have far more widespread and capable nuclear weaponry. We have other countries about to be dragged in to the war. And we have a complete lunatic at the Russian helm who is beginning to look and sound desperate.
I mentioned Russian generals but I think Leon's right about President Xi and people like Peter Hitchen are totally wrong.
We probably right now need to go to Xi and incentivise him for the sake of the human race to exert maximum pressure on Putin to stand down.
I know this would stick in the throat but it's the lesser of evils.
I'm not sure Xi needs much incentivisation. As others have said. In no way is a nutter lobbing nukes, nor even threatening to do so, good for the PRC. The question is does he have any influence?Clearly not much. They weren't even told of the invasion we now hear. He may, however, be exerting some diplomatic influence on those around Putin. I would hope and expect so.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Eastern Europe?!
Take a look at a globe. Europe is flippin tiny.
Chernobyl affected livestock in Ireland and Norway. That was a nuclear catapult compared to the howitzers currently on high alert.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I have more faith in Trident than unilateral disarmament.
Ukraine unilaterally disarmed and look at them now.
They are not the only two options. I support retaining tactical nuclear weapons, and enhancing our conventional forces, but do not see the point of Trident. It can only be used when we're fried, and if we were fried, but America still existed, I should think they'd switch it off before any more of the world got fried. That's what I'd do in their position. Tactical nuclear weapons are far more frightening as a deterrent.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
You are spinning like mad here. I suspect what BR said was that China was the bigger threat to the UK, not to 'a European country like the UK', and that remains the case. Ukraine shares a large land border with Russia, has pockets of ethnic Russians, and has at times been under Russian control. If we were Ukraine, clearly Russia would be the bigger threat. We're not Ukraine, we don't have any of those features, so any hard headed assessment would conclude that China is the bigger threat to us.
No it isn't.
Moscow is only 1,724 miles from London. Beijing is 5,055 miles from London.
Xi may also be an authoritarian despot like Putin, he may even invade Taiwan but he has not just put the Chinese nuclear deterrent on 'special alert' as Putin has done for the Russian nuclear deterrent and he is not yet mad, as Putin seems increasingly to be!
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
The nuclear weapons one?
And nice attempt to imply that a failure to listen to concerns is justification for invasion, thus putting blame on more than one side (or rather onto only the defensive side).
As we know from Putin's own words, economic actions and statements are not acceptable, but invasion is. You obviously agree.
He and you should remember the old saying
Sticks and stone may break my bones But words can never hurt me
Naught words and imagined plans do not justify killing and invasion.
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
We cannot base policy on wild hopes
Who is 'We'?
Most posters on PB know each other, in many cases personally but otherwise through reputation and thousands of posts. On the evidence of a handful of posts I should say you are a troll, and your views - if indeed they are yours - have attracted well-merited contempt.
You don't speak for anybody except yourself and whoever might be marking your card.
I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial
You noticed?
We like Sean. He’s like our own little pet tarantula. Vile, poisonous and icky. But strangely mesmerising.
Spiders are venomous, not poisonous, and no tarantula is venomous to mankind. They are mesmerising I agree. Indian ornamentals especially.
This was a fascinating development. The government saying (presumably accidentally) that people would be supported to go to Ukraine to fight with the Ukranian army.
I have thought about this a bit, and concluded that as an overweight 40 something with no language skills or combat experience and who recently had to take time off work with mental health problems I would not be a great deal of help to the war effort. A very convenient conclusion for me, which permits me to carry on living in England without putting myself at risk of premature violent death or torture upon capture by the Russians. But it has dawned on me that this peace and prosperity we enjoy comes at a price, which is currently being paid by Ukranians. As such, I am going to donate serious amounts of money to this cause, in the hope that the Ukranians prevail and Putin is overthrown. I still feel like a decadent coward, but perhaps slightly less so than other people around me.
And after this we must help them rebuild. Even if the war were to cease now, the damage is massive.
One for Leon, TSE (though sadly not a redhead) and other red-blooded males and gay females, I see that Anastasiia Lenna the former Miss Ukraine has taken up arms to fight Putin's evil army. For those of you who want inspiration of various kinds, this may provide it:
Militaries tend to obey orders , they are not debating shops , if a reasonably democratic nation like the USA can order nukes dropped on Japan and their officers in charge of doing it did it (on two occasions after presumably knowing what happened after the first ) then I dont want to put much confidence in a Russian officer disobeying a dictator when given such an order. Putin needs a way out and its needed fast
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Apparently there are four stages of nuclear preparedness in Russia. Putin has escalated from 1 to 2. So we are still a bit away from Armageddon, hopefully. Maybe its about putting pressure on Ukraine before the negotiations. Not sure I see Zelenskky giving much away tho.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
And look at how badly it's going for Russia, they're already asking for peace talks. It turns out those of us who thought Russia a spent force were correct.
Putin has just raised Russia's nuclear deterrent to 'special alert' and Russian troops are still fighting in Ukraine.
Does not look like a man about to sue for peace, looks more like the most dangerous period for the world since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962
Desperation. I refuse to believe that the commanders would fire a nuke.
I refused to believe that Putin would be stupid enough to invade ...
The military commanders have final say on a first strike. They actually have to fire the nuke and kill potentially millions of people and start a nuclear war that could result in tens of millions dead. Putin may be mad enough to order a first strike, yet it might be that order which leads to a coup as the military leaders simply refuse the order.
It's not like the movies where Putin has a big red "nuke" button. The order will go to multiple people and eventually a poor sod who has to fire it.
Indeed. Stanislav Petrov comes to mind. In a scenario where a computer error showed a US first strike, he wrote it off and did not pass it up the chain of command.
Now clearly that situation was accidental, but it does show that the men behind the buttons are men too, with families and friends; and the threshold to actually escalate things to the point the button actually gets pushed requires a lot of people to buy into it.
Militaries tend to obey orders , they are not debating shops , if a reasonably democratic nation like the USA can order nukes dropped on Japan and their officers in charge of doing it did it (on two occasions after presumably knowing what happened after the first ) then I dont want to put much confidence in a Russian officer disobeying a dictator when given such an order. Putin needs a way out and its needed fast
All Putin has done is double down (sending troops into the Ukraine) and then continue to double down as things haven’t worked out for him.. I’m not sure how you get someone like that to backdown - it’s not plausible.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
not another what? If you are implying I am a Russian stooge I am defintiely not , just scared actually for my family and the world. So piss off with your juvenile hunt the russian on PB drivel
- Brexit as a war of words between the UK and the EU is over. Both have realised that the other offers more to them than they realised;
- EU expansion is back on the agenda. Poland is pushing for Ukraine to be given candidate status. The EU will surely look again at speeding things up with the western Balkans and Moldova, and perhaps Georgia. Ditto NATO expansion. Pushing Finland and Sweden towards NATO membership is astonishingly counterproductive of Russia;
- Russia’s social media capability has been shown to be utterly inadequate at making a positive case for Russia’s policies. It seems to be good at attack, but useless at defence;
- Judging by the number of denial of service attacks on Russia’s banking and government infrastructure (and perhaps other infrastructure, we wouldn’t get to see that), the West’s cyber capabilities are in excellent shape;
- If, as now looks likely, Russia faces strategic defeat in Ukraine at some point, it will put renewed strain on Russia’s control not just of its so-called near abroad but also of the country within its own boundaries.
The semi-colons are mine. Proper punctuation remains important even in difficult times.
Re potential EU expansion. I hope that it leads to the kind of pick-and-mix EU, or least tiered membership levels, that the UK could be part of, rather than everyone progressing to ever closer union which is impossible for the UK to rejoin.
If they want quicker expansion a tiered approach would presumably be necessary, since Ukraine and others would struggle to move beyond candidate status swiftly (albeit that would, Turkey aside since they have no intent to join) be an indication of geo political alignment.
On the NATO expansion point, it is so blindlingly obvious that Russia's actions have made NATO more relevant and appealing than it has been for a long time, that one might be tempted to suggest that if he really were an intelligent chessmaster, that he must have seen that coming and accepted it, because he's tried faking that the West is out to get Russia (rather than merely not friendly) as a means to hold onto rule and it is not really working anymore, so he needed to make it true.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
Militaries tend to obey orders , they are not debating shops , if a reasonably democratic nation like the USA can order nukes dropped on Japan and their officers in charge of doing it did it (on two occasions after presumably knowing what happened after the first ) then I dont want to put much confidence in a Russian officer disobeying a dictator when given such an order. Putin needs a way out and its needed fast
Before any potential nuclear retaliation was possible, before we truly understood the destructive power of nukes and to bring an end to a 5 year war that has claimed the lives of 10s of millions.
The Russian commander will be being asked to nuke Kiev or Lviv to help Putin save face. Millions dead just so Putin can declare victory.
As I said, he may give the order (and I'm not sure on that) but I don't think the Russian military will follow an order to kill millions of their Ukrainian brothers and sisters. They barely want to fight them right now.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
And look at how badly it's going for Russia, they're already asking for peace talks. It turns out those of us who thought Russia a spent force were correct.
Putin has just raised Russia's nuclear deterrent to 'special alert' and Russian troops are still fighting in Ukraine.
Does not look like a man about to sue for peace, looks more like the most dangerous period for the world since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962
Desperation. I refuse to believe that the commanders would fire a nuke.
I refused to believe that Putin would be stupid enough to invade ...
The military commanders have final say on a first strike. They actually have to fire the nuke and kill potentially millions of people and start a nuclear war that could result in tens of millions dead. Putin may be mad enough to order a first strike, yet it might be that order which leads to a coup as the military leaders simply refuse the order.
It's not like the movies where Putin has a big red "nuke" button. The order will go to multiple people and eventually a poor sod who has to fire it.
Indeed. Stanislav Petrov comes to mind. In a scenario where a computer error showed a US first strike, he wrote it off and did not pass it up the chain of command.
Now clearly that situation was accidental, but it does show that the men behind the buttons are men too, with families and friends; and the threshold to actually escalate things to the point the button actually gets pushed requires a lot of people to buy into it.
Downside is that they’ll have looked to weed out dangerous subversives like him since…
Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov says Russia's tactics in Ukraine aren't working.
"They're armed to the teeth with new weapony and ammunition, new generation heavy artillery, and we're still placing our hopes on the Ukrainians' coming to their senses."
Militaries tend to obey orders , they are not debating shops , if a reasonably democratic nation like the USA can order nukes dropped on Japan and their officers in charge of doing it did it (on two occasions after presumably knowing what happened after the first ) then I dont want to put much confidence in a Russian officer disobeying a dictator when given such an order. Putin needs a way out and its needed fast
Hiroshima and Nagasaki are in no way comparable. There remains much debate over the ethics of their use but this was use of (much less powerful by todays standards) nuclear weapons by the sole nuclear power in the world.
Militaries tend to obey orders , they are not debating shops , if a reasonably democratic nation like the USA can order nukes dropped on Japan and their officers in charge of doing it did it (on two occasions after presumably knowing what happened after the first ) then I dont want to put much confidence in a Russian officer disobeying a dictator when given such an order. Putin needs a way out and its needed fast
Nobody had nukes to fire back. FFS.
you have more confidence than me int his situation - i hope to god you are 100% confident
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
They seem to be talking. Let’s hope they can come to some agreement.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
Militaries tend to obey orders , they are not debating shops , if a reasonably democratic nation like the USA can order nukes dropped on Japan and their officers in charge of doing it did it (on two occasions after presumably knowing what happened after the first ) then I dont want to put much confidence in a Russian officer disobeying a dictator when given such an order. Putin needs a way out and its needed fast
Hiroshima and Nagasaki are in no way comparable. There remains much debate over the ethics of their use but this was use of (much less powerful by todays standards) nuclear weapons by the sole nuclear power in the world.
as I replied below I hope you are 100% confident of your argument .
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
Much sympathy with this, but two points:
For some years I felt we should negotiate away our deterrent but then Trump became POTUS and half the USA went insane and I changed my mind.
All the stuff about only a madman would use it, so it only helps a madman would be fine if, and only if, we could uninvent it. That is not on.
Best we can do: a few sane (sort of) countries have it, including France and UK. Because of that there is slightly less chance that a madman will use it because the people around him will tell him some of the truth and even refuse to obey orders.
I hope we would not use it in pure retaliation, but the Faustian pact of the nuclear deal requires that this is a secret your enemies are not quite sure of.
True, it can't be uninvented. One day perhaps we can negotiate them all away to mothballs but that won't be next Tuesday. I know this and I'm not going all Frisco 67. My point is that I think the value of the nuclear deterrent is overstated. We (and others) would be ill advised to rely on it to deliver much in a conflict situation. The case for it is essentially hall of mirrors.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
It is reality, any conflict with Russia means World War 3,
If we are going to World War 3 it should only be as Russia has invaded a NATO nation
HYUFD. You are a worthy political operative, and I enjoy sparring with you. But on this you are politically and morally wrong.
I don't want nuclear war any more than you do. As a democrat you should be outraged that a sovereign nation has been invaded by a neighbouring sovereign nation, and now the threat to use nuclear weapons has been made. Whether a nation state is in NATO or not, is to many people largely irrelevant. The West has treated Putin with patience and reverence, and he has thrown it back at us. If Russia first strikes Kyiv, to my mind that is a declaration of war against Europe as a whole. Let us not be under any illusion if he does that, he has no compunction to follow rules of engagement and Putin will only be too comfortable with sending warheads to Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Warsaw, Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo, Berlin, Paris, London and anywhere else of his choosing.
Putin is not a man one can reason with. Russia is a wounded bear, you can't second guess the next move.
The recent successes of the Ukrainian armed forces are due to the deployment of the terrible 344mm Lepage Crème Brûlée cannon.
This successor to the legendary Lepage Glue Gun can spread French culinary culture across entire divisions with a single shot.
A sobbing conscript reveals how "one minute the lads were all joking. Next minute they were denying the existence of truth, smoking Gaulois and quoting Sartre."
Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.
This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.
Also going to require a lot of the media pundits to do some serious rewriting of their positions. Boris continuously criticised for not even going anywhere near far enough on the eco-stuff.
We need to double down on the eco stuff. The less reliance on gas the better.
Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov says Russia's tactics in Ukraine aren't working.
"They're armed to the teeth with new weapony and ammunition, new generation heavy artillery, and we're still placing our hopes on the Ukrainians' coming to their senses."
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
Well, to gain an idea of the other way of doing it: all we have to do is assure Putin that if he fires his nukes, we will, under no circumstances, fire back. Even if he rains nuclear fire on London and all of the UK - we won't do anything and will merely accept it.
Personally, I don't think that would help.
The reason that it's of value as a deterrent is that it is a second strike system. Which means that we would use it if we were already attacked. And we would therefore have nothing left to lose.
Game theory came into existence because of the implications of this. We don't threaten to use it unless they use theirs first. At which point, it's no longer the actions of a madman to use it. Because what would we have lost? We'd already have incurred the loss.
And they - their entire command chain down to the people who actually have to turn the keys - would know that the retaliatory strike would be coming if they went ahead.
It may not be sufficient to deter. But its absence would certainly not have any prospect of deterrence.
It fails game theory for me because a rational actor won't use it even if a mad one had used it first. There's nothing gained from that. It's just more loss. And a rational actor certainly won't use it preemptively. It therefore has utility only to the madman. In the hands of a madman it carries genuine threat and can be used as leverage. It's one-sided in this respect. This applies to all weapons to an extent, of course, but with the nuclear WMD it's especially so. Of great value to a lunatic, or somebody believed to be, of little value to everyone else - eg this situation here now (possibly).
Though Kinabalu's theory fails an interesting test: No madman has used it yet, including the N Korea regime, and the longer time goes on without use the less plausible is the theory, and the more plausible is the possibility that people other than madmen having it deters madmen and others too.
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
We cannot base policy on wild hopes
Who is 'We'?
Most posters on PB know each other, in many cases personally but otherwise through reputation and thousands of posts. On the evidence of a handful of posts I should say you are a troll, and your views - if indeed they are yours - have attracted well-merited contempt.
You don't speak for anybody except yourself and whoever might be marking your card.
I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial
You noticed?
We like Sean. He’s like our own little pet tarantula. Vile, poisonous and icky. But strangely mesmerising.
Spiders are venomous, not poisonous, and no tarantula is venomous to mankind. They are mesmerising I agree. Indian ornamentals especially.
Ok. Fine. Sean is vile, venomous and icky. Happy now?
And our red under the Reading bed called us “superficial”? Pffff.
Telegram’s @durov tells 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦users to “doubt all info” on the app – full of Ukrainian videos obliterating the Russian messaging – and says he may turn off channels “in the participant countries during the conflict in case it the situation escalates.”
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
You are spinning like mad here. I suspect what BR said was that China was the bigger threat to the UK, not to 'a European country like the UK', and that remains the case. Ukraine shares a large land border with Russia, has pockets of ethnic Russians, and has at times been under Russian control. If we were Ukraine, clearly Russia would be the bigger threat. We're not Ukraine, we don't have any of those features, so any hard headed assessment would conclude that China is the bigger threat to us.
No it isn't.
Moscow is only 1,724 miles from London. Beijing is 5,055 miles from London.
Xi may also be an authoritarian despot like Putin, he may even invade Taiwan but he has not just put the Chinese nuclear deterrent on 'special alert' as Putin has done for the Russian nuclear deterrent and he is not yet mad, as Putin seems increasingly to be!
What has that got to do with anything? If either of them invade, they will do it by sea, from their military sea ports, not from capital to capital as the crow flies. Complete nonsense.
We also have little idea of the relative sanity or otherwise of either man. All I can see from looking at Putin is that he looks like he's had injectable facial fillers to appear younger.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
It is reality, any conflict with Russia means World War 3,
If we are going to World War 3 it should only be as Russia has invaded a NATO nation
HYUFD. You are a worthy political operative, and I enjoy sparring with you. But on this you are politically and morally wrong.
I don't want nuclear war any more than you do. As a democrat you should be outraged that a sovereign nation has been invaded by a neighbouring sovereign nation, and now the threat to use nuclear weapons has been made. Whether a nation state is in NATO or not, is to many people largely irrelevant. The West has treated Putin with patience and reverence, and he has thrown it back at us. If Russia first strikes Kyiv, to my mind that is a declaration of war against Europe as a whole. Let us not be under any illusion if he does that, he has no compunction to follow rules of engagement and Putin will only be too comfortable with sending warheads to Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Warsaw, Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo, Berlin, Paris, London and anywhere else of his choosing.
Putin is not a man one can reason with. Russia is a wounded bear, you can't second guess the next move.
Yes and if Russia was not a military superpower with nuclear weapons we would likely have gone to war to free Ukraine with a UN resolution behind us as we did when Iraq invaded Kuwait for example.
However, Russia is a military superpower with nuclear weapons and a veto power on the UN Security Council, so we cannot do anything beyond the economic sanctions we have and the military supplies we gave Ukraine before the War. If Russia invades a NATO state then yes we would be at war based on our NATO alliance of mutual self defence but at yet it has not
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.
This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.
Also going to require a lot of the media pundits to do some serious rewriting of their positions. Boris continuously criticised for not even going anywhere near far enough on the eco-stuff.
We need to double down on the eco stuff. The less reliance on gas the better.
We need to be energy secure - in surplus if possible. If that comes from good renewables, so much the better. But if it comes from fuels which dare not speak their name, we just have to live with it for the time being.
From the TV series Chernobyl- there was a concern that the reactor meltdown could bore through the concrete under the reactor and result in a massive long term release of radiation that would make Russia uninhabitable for hundreds of years.
President Vladimir Putin's order to put Russian nuclear forces on high alert is part of a pattern of Moscow manufacturing threats to justify aggression, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Sunday. "We have the ability to defend ourselves," Psaki said
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
Much sympathy with this, but two points:
For some years I felt we should negotiate away our deterrent but then Trump became POTUS and half the USA went insane and I changed my mind.
All the stuff about only a madman would use it, so it only helps a madman would be fine if, and only if, we could uninvent it. That is not on.
Best we can do: a few sane (sort of) countries have it, including France and UK. Because of that there is slightly less chance that a madman will use it because the people around him will tell him some of the truth and even refuse to obey orders.
I hope we would not use it in pure retaliation, but the Faustian pact of the nuclear deal requires that this is a secret your enemies are not quite sure of.
True, it can't be uninvented. One day perhaps we can negotiate them all away to mothballs but that won't be next Tuesday. I know this and I'm not going all Frisco 67. My point is that I think the value of the nuclear deterrent is overstated. We (and others) would be ill advised to rely on it to deliver much in a conflict situation. The case for it is essentially hall of mirrors.
Mostly agree. We cannot know the value of the deterrent effect until too late. I agree it is of little or no use in a conflict. Its purpose is to prevent conflict of certain sorts and scale before it starts. Yes it is a hall of mirrors. But if a madman has one I want my firm allies to have one too, because I don't want him to be sure what I will do.
The worst option will be: Madman has one. No-one else does. There are no good options of course.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
You are spinning like mad here. I suspect what BR said was that China was the bigger threat to the UK, not to 'a European country like the UK', and that remains the case. Ukraine shares a large land border with Russia, has pockets of ethnic Russians, and has at times been under Russian control. If we were Ukraine, clearly Russia would be the bigger threat. We're not Ukraine, we don't have any of those features, so any hard headed assessment would conclude that China is the bigger threat to us.
No it isn't.
Moscow is only 1,724 miles from London. Beijing is 5,055 miles from London.
Xi may also be an authoritarian despot like Putin, he may even invade Taiwan but he has not just put the Chinese nuclear deterrent on 'special alert' as Putin has done for the Russian nuclear deterrent and he is not yet mad, as Putin seems increasingly to be!
What has that got to do with anything? If either of them invade, they will do it by sea, from their military sea ports, not from capital to capital as the crow flies. Complete nonsense.
We also have little idea of the relative sanity or otherwise of either man. All I can see from looking at Putin is that he looks like he's had injectable facial fillers to appear younger.
Everything. We are on the same continent as Russia for starters so if it had captured most of Europe we would be next in line for invasion. China however is on the other side of the world, so it would have to have invaded most of Asia as well as most of Europe before it got to us.
Now Hong Kong is back under Chinese rule, China also has little interest in the UK. It wants control of the South China Sea not the English Channel!
Xi has also not yet invaded a nation, even Taiwan, while Putin has invaded Ukraine. Xi has also not put his nuclear deterrent on special alert unlike Putin
The recent successes of the Ukrainian armed forces are due to the deployment of the terrible 344mm Lepage Crème Brûlée cannon.
This successor to the legendary Lepage Glue Gun can spread French culinary culture across entire divisions with a single shot.
A sobbing conscript reveals how "one minute the lads were all joking. Next minute they were denying the existence of truth, smoking Gaulois and quoting Sartre."
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
You are absolutely delighted he's threatened us with nukes, aren't you?
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
It’s really simple.
Putin’s generals will make it quite clear, that he launches a nuclear weapon about an hour before downtown Moscow gets turned into glass.
If he still goes for it, and if everyone down the line of command goes for it, then that’s on them.
Yep, I'm sure he and his team know the upshot of going nuclear. But is he mad enough to do it and if he is would others stop him? These are the questions burning for me - not that I expect anybody to know the answers otherwise they should be off here and on the phone to Washington!
I have to believe that the top brass in Moscow have not gone so completely cuckoo as to follow that order. In retaliation to a strike? Sure. But a first strike is something altogether different.
Cheers. Liking this answer and I've decided to assume it's right. If so it means we should simply be supporting to the hilt Ukraine in this war. Because take out the nuclear escalation risk and you have a pretty straightforward good v bad situation.
Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.
This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.
Also going to require a lot of the media pundits to do some serious rewriting of their positions. Boris continuously criticised for not even going anywhere near far enough on the eco-stuff.
We need to double down on the eco stuff. The less reliance on gas the better.
We need to be energy secure - in surplus if possible. If that comes from good renewables, so much the better. But if it comes from fuels which dare not speak their name, we just have to live with it for the time being.
Agreed, but the green lobby won’t allow it. High gas prices are desirable to ensure moving away from gas. They don’t care about the effect on people. Renewables are the desired end game but we don’t want to impoverish people getting there.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
Only how does that work?
Either the disputed areas have been purged (by exile or murder) of anyone not content to live under the heel of Putin's jackboot, in which case you get a repeat of the Crimean poll in 2014 with a near 100% vote in favour of Russia, and his illegitimate conquests are validated; or the regions are all still full of pissed off and oppressed Ukrainians, in which case they vote to dump Russia and Tsar Vladimir's empire loses territory. The former outcome is unacceptable to Ukraine and all its friends; the latter outcome is unacceptable to Mad Vlad. So, it gets us nowhere.
Presidential spokesman of Ukraine to Russian soldiers: "Many of you have already surrendered but we do not consider it captivity. We do not consider your switchover to our side as something shameful. This is how you preserve your military honor by renouncing a criminal war..." https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497965196345851906
Russian patriotic anger will be turning against Putin shortly if it already hasn't. The mechanics of a coup I cannot comment on but surely one is imminent? Will it be before or after some sort of ceasefire and withdrawal with a fig leaf concession by the Ukrainians?
Russian patriotic anger will be turning against Putin shortly if it already hasn't. The mechanics of a coup I cannot comment on but surely one is imminent? Will it be before or after some sort of ceasefire and withdrawal with a fig leaf concession by the Ukrainians?
Presidential spokesman of Ukraine to Russian soldiers: "Many of you have already surrendered but we do not consider it captivity. We do not consider your switchover to our side as something shameful. This is how you preserve your military honor by renouncing a criminal war..." https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497965196345851906
It would be funny if the Russian military columns reversed their direction and headed towards Moscow.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
Only how does that work?
Either the disputed areas have been purged (by exile or murder) of anyone not content to live under the heel of Putin's jackboot, in which case you get a repeat of the Crimean poll in 2014 with a near 100% vote in favour of Russia, and his illegitimate conquests are validated; or the regions are all still full of pissed off and oppressed Ukrainians, in which case they vote to dump Russia and Tsar Vladimir's empire loses territory. The former outcome is unacceptable to Ukraine and all its friends; the latter outcome is unacceptable to Mad Vlad. So, it gets us nowhere.
You also set a rather unwelcomeprecedent. Fancy a bit of your neighbour's country? Invade it, drive out those unsympathetic to your cause, then agree to withdraw and hold a plebiscite. Once you use military force, you forego the right to use other means to achieve your aims.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
You are spinning like mad here. I suspect what BR said was that China was the bigger threat to the UK, not to 'a European country like the UK', and that remains the case. Ukraine shares a large land border with Russia, has pockets of ethnic Russians, and has at times been under Russian control. If we were Ukraine, clearly Russia would be the bigger threat. We're not Ukraine, we don't have any of those features, so any hard headed assessment would conclude that China is the bigger threat to us.
No it isn't.
Moscow is only 1,724 miles from London. Beijing is 5,055 miles from London.
Xi may also be an authoritarian despot like Putin, he may even invade Taiwan but he has not just put the Chinese nuclear deterrent on 'special alert' as Putin has done for the Russian nuclear deterrent and he is not yet mad, as Putin seems increasingly to be!
What has that got to do with anything? If either of them invade, they will do it by sea, from their military sea ports, not from capital to capital as the crow flies. Complete nonsense.
We also have little idea of the relative sanity or otherwise of either man. All I can see from looking at Putin is that he looks like he's had injectable facial fillers to appear younger.
Everything. We are on the same continent as Russia for starters so if it had captured most of Europe we would be next in line for invasion. China however is on the other side of the world, so it would have to have invaded most of Asia as well as most of Europe before it got to us.
Now Hong Kong is back under Chinese rule, China also has little interest in the UK. It wants control of the South China Sea not the English Channel!
Xi has also not yet invaded a nation, even Taiwan, while Putin has invaded Ukraine. Xi has also not put his nuclear deterrent on special alert unlike Putin
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
For now, but they will be back. SKS is rightly using the situation to impose a little discipline of ultra left MPs, getting them to withdraw their signing of STW petition/letter attacking NATO.
The tactic of one ultra left MP has been to suddenly start describing the Russians as 'ultra right wing' as cover for not giving our enemies comfort for the moment. Though the absolute Spartist Laura Pidcock is yet to tweet any support for Ukraine or opposition to Russia since the invasion. TBF most of the ultra left have given themselves a little shelter from the storm with Corbyn like affirmations of peacenikery.
Full support for our enemies and full hostility to our allies will resume in due course.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
You are absolutely delighted he's threatened us with nukes, aren't you?
"See, we shouldn't poke the bear"
you must be insane if you think anybody is delighted about what Putin has just said about nuclear weapons
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
Only how does that work?
Either the disputed areas have been purged (by exile or murder) of anyone not content to live under the heel of Putin's jackboot, in which case you get a repeat of the Crimean poll in 2014 with a near 100% vote in favour of Russia, and his illegitimate conquests are validated; or the regions are all still full of pissed off and oppressed Ukrainians, in which case they vote to dump Russia and Tsar Vladimir's empire loses territory. The former outcome is unacceptable to Ukraine and all its friends; the latter outcome is unacceptable to Mad Vlad. So, it gets us nowhere.
You also set a rather unwelcomeprecedent. Fancy a bit of your neighbour's country? Invade it, drive out those unsympathetic to your cause, then agree to withdraw and hold a plebiscite. Once you use military force, you forego the right to use other means to achieve your aims.
Such a vote has not been possible since 2014, with the ongoing conflict, in any event.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
You are absolutely delighted he's threatened us with nukes, aren't you?
"See, we shouldn't poke the bear"
Are you clinically insane?
Nobody can possibly be "absolutely delighted" to be threatened with nukes, unless they know nothing about nuclear war.
I have never used the "poke the bear" analogy.
I have merely insisted that there is a Russian minority in Ukraine, and they have rights.
And I have also insisted that many ordinary Russians do not support Putin's dubious historico-philosophical fantasies.
Most commercial aircraft in Russia are leased, so if the requests are honoured the move has the potential to massively disrupt travel in and out of Russia as well as internally.…
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
Russia's only concern is obvious: get rid of Putin.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Russian patriotic anger will be turning against Putin shortly if it already hasn't. The mechanics of a coup I cannot comment on but surely one is imminent? Will it be before or after some sort of ceasefire and withdrawal with a fig leaf concession by the Ukrainians?
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
You are rebroadcasting nuclear blackmail approvingly. Man of Putin, rather than man of peace.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
You are absolutely delighted he's threatened us with nukes, aren't you?
"See, we shouldn't poke the bear"
Are you clinically insane?
Nobody can possibly be "absolutely delighted" to be threatened with nukes, unless they know nothing about nuclear war.
I have never used the "poke the bear" analogy.
I have merely insisted that there is a Russian minority in Ukraine, and they have rights.
And I have also insisted that many ordinary Russians do not support Putin's dubious historico-philosophical fantasies.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
I didn't say you were. I am trying to point out that even that resolution, unpalatable though necessary it might well be, is fraught with problems due to expressed justifications of the key instigator making it very very easy for him to shift the goalposts of what is a disputed area. Had Putin not ranted and whinged incoherently about these matters, and instead been precise about merely the need to defend Russians or the minority in eastern Ukraine, then much more assurance could be had that such plebiscites - even though extracted by force - might be the end of it.
As it is we know he wants more than that because he's jutifications reveal that. Meaning even that extracted compromise is less reliable.
And you repeatedly don't acknowledge the issues cookie for one has raised about the worthiness of any such plebiscites, prompted by invasion and displacement. It might happen, but would endorse future invasions.
The bloke Sky News have hired to do the military analysis.....lets just say he does a great job of scaring the shit out of everybody....next slide please...yes well if Russia want they can deploy this....that will take out a city block...next slide please....a step up from that this, 5 of these will take out a city....next slide please....and after that....these can take out the cities anywhere in the Western world...next slide....no that's all we have time for, thank you.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
You are absolutely delighted he's threatened us with nukes, aren't you?
"See, we shouldn't poke the bear"
Are you clinically insane?
Nobody can possibly be "absolutely delighted" to be threatened with nukes, unless they know nothing about nuclear war.
I have never used the "poke the bear" analogy.
I have merely insisted that there is a Russian minority in Ukraine, and they have rights.
And I have also insisted that many ordinary Russians do not support Putin's dubious historico-philosophical fantasies.
BiB - you seem to be assuming that they are welcoming the invasion. One of our own posters with a personal interest poured cold water on that idea this morning.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
Agreed Leon russias concerns should have been listened to more before they invaded Ukraine...
That is perhaps true. I have argued as much here (to great unpopularity).
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
That your second to fifth paragraphs are true is why the first sentence was wrong and thus unpopular. It supposes something could have been done to mollify Putin, yet his explanations for action argue against that being possible.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
The sensible thing to do now is get the disputed areas (Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk) demilitarised and under UN peacekeeping forces ... and hold a plebiscite.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
It might well happen. But Putin can make anywhere he likes a 'disputed' area, hence his dimissal of Ukraine as even a thing and its rulers drug dealing nazis, by moving in troops.
You seem to think I am supporting Putin in his wilder ravings. I am not.
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
You are absolutely delighted he's threatened us with nukes, aren't you?
"See, we shouldn't poke the bear"
you must be insane if you think anybody is delighted about what Putin has just said about nuclear weapons
PJ most assuredly is. It shows how those in Ukraine stupid enough to resist are the true villains for risking more. But I doubt anyone else is.
We’ve now had 72 (seventy-two) VI polls in a row with LAB in the lead. A remarkable series.
Statistics being what they are, you’d have expected at least one blip in such a long series?
You certainly wouldn’t expect that if the lead is large.
I am expecting some big, big Conservative VI leads. Circumstances are currently Johnson's friend.
No - unless and until Boris leaves the stage the Labour leads will wax and wane but no more.
I agree. It’s probably actually slightly unfair on him but I think the focus of U.K. public is on Ukrainian resistance, and not sure he will be given much credit (within the U.K.) for the escalating international response.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war.
The bloke Sky News have hired to do the military analysis.....lets just say he does a great job of scaring the shit out of everybody....next slide please...yes well if Russia want they can deploy this....that will take out a city block...next slide please....a step up from that this, 5 of these will take out a city....next slide please....and after that....these can take out the cities anywhere in the Western world...next slide....no that's all we have time for, thank you.
Shouldn’t be allowed - Govt really need to be warning off the media doing this kind of stuff which does Putin’s job for him.
Comments
We like Sean. He’s like our own little pet tarantula. Vile, poisonous and icky. But strangely mesmerising.
@jamesmatesitv
Reports from Kyiv that the Ukraine/Russia talks on the Belarus-Ukraine border have started.
SKS fans please explain?
It's not like the movies where Putin has a big red "nuke" button. The order will go to multiple people and eventually a poor sod who has to fire it.
As others have said. In no way is a nutter lobbing nukes, nor even threatening to do so, good for the PRC. The question is does he have any influence?Clearly not much. They weren't even told of the invasion we now hear.
He may, however, be exerting some diplomatic influence on those around Putin.
I would hope and expect so.
Take a look at a globe. Europe is flippin tiny.
Chernobyl affected livestock in Ireland and Norway. That was a nuclear catapult compared to the howitzers currently on high alert.
Moscow is only 1,724 miles from London. Beijing is 5,055 miles from London.
Xi may also be an authoritarian despot like Putin, he may even invade Taiwan but he has not just put the Chinese nuclear deterrent on 'special alert' as Putin has done for the Russian nuclear deterrent and he is not yet mad, as Putin seems increasingly to be!
And nice attempt to imply that a failure to listen to concerns is justification for invasion, thus putting blame on more than one side (or rather onto only the defensive side).
As we know from Putin's own words, economic actions and statements are not acceptable, but invasion is. You obviously agree.
He and you should remember the old saying
Sticks and stone may break my bones
But words can never hurt me
Naught words and imagined plans do not justify killing and invasion.
Even if the war were to cease now, the damage is massive.
I see Putin has kindly reminded the world, again, what a lunatic he is.
Now clearly that situation was accidental, but it does show that the men behind the buttons are men too, with families and friends; and the threshold to actually escalate things to the point the button actually gets pushed requires a lot of people to buy into it.
I’m not sure how you get someone like that to backdown - it’s not plausible.
On the NATO expansion point, it is so blindlingly obvious that Russia's actions have made NATO more relevant and appealing than it has been for a long time, that one might be tempted to suggest that if he really were an intelligent chessmaster, that he must have seen that coming and accepted it, because he's tried faking that the West is out to get Russia (rather than merely not friendly) as a means to hold onto rule and it is not really working anymore, so he needed to make it true.
But .... it needs to be said clearly that there is no rational justification for this war.
Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a huge military operation are wrong.
The situation in the Donbass did need sorting, but not by a massive escalation of the conflict.
The war is unfair and frankly senseless.
It needs stopping before it gets completely out of hand.
We need to put pressure on both sides to talk and accept some sensible compromise.
The Russian commander will be being asked to nuke Kiev or Lviv to help Putin save face. Millions dead just so Putin can declare victory.
As I said, he may give the order (and I'm not sure on that) but I don't think the Russian military will follow an order to kill millions of their Ukrainian brothers and sisters. They barely want to fight them right now.
Given the possible consequences of Putin staying in power there is an argument in its favour. I wonder what his personal security is like.
"They're armed to the teeth with new weapony and ammunition, new generation heavy artillery, and we're still placing our hopes on the Ukrainians' coming to their senses."
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497917442508701697
Translation of the full speech: https://twitter.com/jamesharding89/status/1497920342815350784
The summary is essentially: time to make Ukrainian cities the new Grozny.
When the concerns expressed and demands made were not all rational (Ukraine is not a real country, NATO expanded 25 years ago and that means my aggression now makes sense...) there is not really a means to meet those expressing them halfway. An irrational concern cannot be sensibly addressed.
Ukraine is the weaker party and absent a lengthy guerilla war probably cannot expect to get out of this without conceding something it would rather not, so may find that the lesser evil to choose. But any such concession would not make the demands and concerns as set out in great detail by Putin as part of absurd historical grievances any more reasonable.
I don't want nuclear war any more than you do. As a democrat you should be outraged that a sovereign nation has been invaded by a neighbouring sovereign nation, and now the threat to use nuclear weapons has been made. Whether a nation state is in NATO or not, is to many people largely irrelevant. The West has treated Putin with patience and reverence, and he has thrown it back at us. If Russia first strikes Kyiv, to my mind that is a declaration of war against Europe as a whole. Let us not be under any illusion if he does that, he has no compunction to follow rules of engagement and Putin will only be too comfortable with sending warheads to Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Warsaw, Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo, Berlin, Paris, London and anywhere else of his choosing.
Putin is not a man one can reason with. Russia is a wounded bear, you can't second guess the next move.
Which is what I have been saying all along.
Statistics being what they are, you’d have expected at least one blip in such a long series?
That is all.
And our red under the Reading bed called us “superficial”? Pffff.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497962047618879502
We also have little idea of the relative sanity or otherwise of either man. All I can see from looking at Putin is that he looks like he's had injectable facial fillers to appear younger.
However, Russia is a military superpower with nuclear weapons and a veto power on the UN Security Council, so we cannot do anything beyond the economic sanctions we have and the military supplies we gave Ukraine before the War. If Russia invades a NATO state then yes we would be at war based on our NATO alliance of mutual self defence but at yet it has not
I am trying to point out a resolution of a situation that now seems even more incredibly dangerous than it was a few days ago.
Did Ukraine have a WMD without realising it?
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/a-letter-to-the-western-left-from-kyiv/
"We have the ability to defend ourselves," Psaki said
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497944953929961474
A coincidence? Clearly not aware of the amount of steel in my shoulder or the skewed focal point of my eyes.
They are spamming me hard.
The worst option will be: Madman has one. No-one else does. There are no good options of course.
Now Hong Kong is back under Chinese rule, China also has little interest in the UK. It wants control of the South China Sea not the English Channel!
Xi has also not yet invaded a nation, even Taiwan, while Putin has invaded Ukraine. Xi has also not put his nuclear deterrent on special alert unlike Putin
"See, we shouldn't poke the bear"
Either the disputed areas have been purged (by exile or murder) of anyone not content to live under the heel of Putin's jackboot, in which case you get a repeat of the Crimean poll in 2014 with a near 100% vote in favour of Russia, and his illegitimate conquests are validated; or the regions are all still full of pissed off and oppressed Ukrainians, in which case they vote to dump Russia and Tsar Vladimir's empire loses territory. The former outcome is unacceptable to Ukraine and all its friends; the latter outcome is unacceptable to Mad Vlad. So, it gets us nowhere.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497965196345851906
Once you use military force, you forego the right to use other means to achieve your aims.
Central Moscow flooded with riot police. Cutting protests off before they can begin.
https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1497955753705021442
You are determined, I have to give you that.
The tactic of one ultra left MP has been to suddenly start describing the Russians as 'ultra right wing' as cover for not giving our enemies comfort for the moment. Though the absolute Spartist Laura Pidcock is yet to tweet any support for Ukraine or opposition to Russia since the invasion. TBF most of the ultra left have given themselves a little shelter from the storm with Corbyn like affirmations of peacenikery.
Full support for our enemies and full hostility to our allies will resume in due course.
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
BREAKING:
The Ukrainian oligarch and MP Viktor Medvedchuk, the most realistic potential head of a pro-Russian puppet state, has escaped house arrest in Kyiv.
He is a personal friend of Putin, who is also the godfather of his daughter Maryna.
A manhunt is underway.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497969364150235137
Nobody can possibly be "absolutely delighted" to be threatened with nukes, unless they know nothing about nuclear war.
I have never used the "poke the bear" analogy.
I have merely insisted that there is a Russian minority in Ukraine, and they have rights.
And I have also insisted that many ordinary Russians do not support Putin's dubious historico-philosophical fantasies.
https://www.independent.ie/business/hundreds-of-irish-owned-planes-to-be-ordered-back-from-russia-in-days-41391470.html
Irish leasing companies are expected to be terminate all leasing deals with Russian aircraft in the coming days as the next phase of sanctions ratchets up pressure on the Kremlin after its invasion of Ukraine, according to senior aviation sources.
Most commercial aircraft in Russia are leased, so if the requests are honoured the move has the potential to massively disrupt travel in and out of Russia as well as internally.…
Man of Putin, rather than man of peace.
https://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/16/europe/russia-putin-crimea-nuclear/index.html
As it is we know he wants more than that because he's jutifications reveal that. Meaning even that extracted compromise is less reliable.
And you repeatedly don't acknowledge the issues cookie for one has raised about the worthiness of any such plebiscites, prompted by invasion and displacement. It might happen, but would endorse future invasions.