If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
It would depend on the target. If the targets are in Ukraine, I would *not* respond with nukes. I would get a worldwide moratorium on Russia and everything Russian. Make them a pariah state (more so than at the moment).
Sadly, we may need to respond with nukes if the targets were anywhere outside Ukraine.
What worries me is if Russia used chemical or biological weapons. They have the capability, and we don't. Our only response is nuclear.
How much damage can chemical/biological weapons cause though? Obviously loads of deaths, but not the end of civilisation.
TimT's an expert on this sort of thing, but some biological weapons (proposed only, hopefully, or if developed long got rid of) were extremely nasty.
And we don't have a response. AIUI, until either Clinton or Obama, the official US response was to use nukes.
To be fair to her she realised halfway through she’d screwed up and started to back peddle
Liz Truss answered instinctively, and in the liberal tradition of England to be fair to her, didn’t she? A country that for centuries is happy to provide a safe haven to radical people of all sorts of views, who could be unsafe if they didn’t flee homeland, even Lenin and Stalin lived in London, in Chelsea I think.
Truss did mean whatever your views on this war, British passport holder, but with family ties with one of the protagonists, it’s okay to go and fight for them in this war and come back in afterwards. So politically and morally that is right, fits in with our history and what UK has always been about, just legally it’s tricky?
It would be how it all ties up legally would be a problem wouldn’t it. In this case it’s straightforward in layman’s eyes - Putin, and a few dozen bastards in a bunker, versus the rest of the world, but courts would need something for less clear cut cases where one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter?
My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
Not sure about that last point. One strategic problem Russia has always had is that it is basically two cities, Moscow and StP. Russia would have to take out a dozen Western Cities to achieve equivalence.
Incidentally, isn't there a major problem with the idea of Russia nuking Kyiv in that it would certainly damage Belarus and parts of Russia too?
I just don't think NATO would needlessly target civilians whatever happened.
Of course, it needs to claim it might because that might be the only deterrent that could stop Russia from doing the same to ours.
In all the bleak and depressing news our son and daughter in law and their two children called round this afternoon and announced that no three is due on the 1st September
Total surprise but wonderful news and our 5th grandchild
That is excellent news. Congrats. And so good to have something positive on an otherwise bleak and grim world-weary day.
Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.
This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.
Also going to require a lot of the media pundits to do some serious rewriting of their positions. Boris continuously criticised for not even going anywhere near far enough on the eco-stuff.
We need to double down on the eco stuff. The less reliance on gas the better.
We need to be energy secure - in surplus if possible. If that comes from good renewables, so much the better. But if it comes from fuels which dare not speak their name, we just have to live with it for the time being.
Agreed, but the green lobby won’t allow it. High gas prices are desirable to ensure moving away from gas. They don’t care about the effect on people. Renewables are the desired end game but we don’t want to impoverish people getting there.
It seems a very good reason for preserving some oil/gas fields, or opening up a new one or two.
'Excuses' available include helping Germany out of the hole it has currently dug for itself.
It is very notable though seldom mentioned that Energy Supplies have been left out of the EU sanctions package, like silk scarves from Milan. I make it that Nordstream 1 is worth about a billion a week to Russia.
When the war is costing £20b a day that won’t go far
I don't know where that sum comes from. War is expensive, but not that expensive, at least in direct terms. Possibly the knock on effect for the economy would be.
Yea. That figure is whiffy.
Dunno - what is the cost of the military kit he has allegedly lost so far? Although that is a sunk cost.
What’s the cost of the ruble dropping 10% against the US$ in the past week?
What’s the cost of it dropping 10% more tomorrow, as the ATMs in Moscow run out of cash and credit cards stop working?
Only 10%?
That seems optimistic.
Fancy a bet, Bart? I say more than 10%.
How much you want - shall we say 1,000 roubles?
What's that worth, a buck and a half?
I'd be on the same side as the bet as you hence my 'only'.
If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.
"In early 2019, Rosneft agreed to convert $1.8 billion of its advances into a 60 percent stake in the oil pipeline that provides the only route for the company to export the region’s oil."
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. Currency market formally opens tomorrow. This is brutal. https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108/photo/1
So with the Russian nuclear forces now on alert, and possibly ours to follow, we are in a scenario where all sides will have to be as clear as possible to avoid accidental escalation: https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1497937591710195717 over a period of months to years.
I think that means Boris has to go. We need, at a minimum, a Prime Minister who is in control of their own mouth. Boris isn't.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. Currency market formally opens tomorrow. This is brutal. https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108/photo/1
Any PBer got any roubles they want to offload? I'm offering $1 for 500. Any takers?
My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
It would depend on the target. If the targets are in Ukraine, I would *not* respond with nukes. I would get a worldwide moratorium on Russia and everything Russian. Make them a pariah state (more so than at the moment).
Sadly, we may need to respond with nukes if the targets were anywhere outside Ukraine.
What worries me is if Russia used chemical or biological weapons. They have the capability, and we don't. Our only response is nuclear.
I just hope there's no accidents or crossed wires. I don't have too much faith in rational game theory on this one.
For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497966928815603715
One way that the West could increase likelihood of this outcome is to enact sanctions on more members of the intelligence services and the military further down the chain, as well as their families. Eg. General officers and even colonelshttps://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497982559782846478
To be fair to her she realised halfway through she’d screwed up and started to back peddle
Liz Truss answered instinctively, and in the liberal tradition of England to be fair to her, didn’t she? A country that for centuries is happy to provide a safe haven to radical people of all sorts of views, who could be unsafe if they didn’t flee homeland, even Lenin and Stalin lived in London, in Chelsea I think.
Truss did mean whatever your views on this war, British passport holder, but with family ties with one of the protagonists, it’s okay to go and fight for them in this war and come back in afterwards. So politically and morally that is right, fits in with our history and what UK has always been about, just legally it’s tricky?
It would be how it all ties up legally would be a problem wouldn’t it. In this case it’s straightforward in layman’s eyes - Putin, and a few dozen bastards in a bunker, versus the rest of the world, but courts would need something for less clear cut cases where one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter?
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
85h of defence.Intimidation of 🇺🇦 is imprudent. Its impossible to break our defenders,moreover its impossible to make the Kyiv lay down arms.The times are difficult,but it will pass.🇺🇦 will win.We’re already winning.Therefore, we advise the occupiers to go home. It's not too late https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1497982463334928391/photo/1
I make it that Nordstream 1 is worth about a billion a week to Russia.
I think you are a little high with that estimate.
Russian natural gas exports (total) are 6.5% of $400bn - or $25bn/year*. And their gas is exported through three major pipelines, half a dozen minor ones, and two LNG plants (Sakhalin-2 and Yamal).
Nordstream 1 is a big pipe, sending about 40BCM of gas a year, but it is smaller than the pipeline that runs through Ukraine (a 65BCM pipe).
Total exports of natural gas to non-former USSR countries are about 185BCM a year, so Nordstream 1 is probably more like $1bn every six weeks.
* That's the 2019 number. As gas contracts are mostly oil price linked, the number is probably a bit higher today, but almost certainly not more than $40bn.
I'd say that 10-20 billion $ pa is within my margin of error, especially as I named no currency ( ) .
Tomorrow, Russia will be outside global finances. Few can travel there because almost all international flights have ceased. Credit cards and other international means of payment will cease. The stock market and Russian bonds will collapse. Putin is a true disaster for Russia. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1497972367695310849
If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
Good chance then we'll get rid of two bastard leaders before this ends.
Everything must change so that things can remain the same. Decision making in and between democracies can be slow, depressingly slow, but when things start to move, they can move quickly. We live in a Europe that is entirely different to the one that existed a week ago. This is beginning to feel like 1989.
My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
It would depend on the target. If the targets are in Ukraine, I would *not* respond with nukes. I would get a worldwide moratorium on Russia and everything Russian. Make them a pariah state (more so than at the moment).
Sadly, we may need to respond with nukes if the targets were anywhere outside Ukraine.
What worries me is if Russia used chemical or biological weapons. They have the capability, and we don't. Our only response is nuclear.
How much damage can chemical/biological weapons cause though? Obviously loads of deaths, but not the end of civilisation.
TimT's an expert on this sort of thing, but some biological weapons (proposed only, hopefully, or if developed long got rid of) were extremely nasty.
And we don't have a response. AIUI, until either Clinton or Obama, the official US response was to use nukes.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
I don't like the accusation of trolling but, truly, this really does sound like it's being written in the Kremlin.
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Yes, this time it might make sense. But who knows what media outlet the government might decide to ban next.
No reason this can’t be left to an independent regulator, rather than decided by a politician.
Carl Bildt @carlbildt In the one country after the other what was unthinkable yesterday becomes necessary today. 🇸🇪 now announces sending also 5.000 AT4 antitank weapons to 🇺🇦. That’s substantial. It’s an effective weapon highly regarded by also the US Army. https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1497983633365286914
At this rate Ukraine is going to be the most well equipped army in Europe. (Admittedly this is Sweden but) I do wonder a bit about whether there becomes a point whereby the distinction about NATO involvement or not is determined by boots on the ground is purely academic. And how that changes things (it probably explains Putin’s action today)
If the distinction is less than Ukraine might more easily concede not to seek to join NATO, but presumably would make it less a concession to Russian eyes. And the wish to join the EU would remain.
Might be the spur to the EU getting its own functioning armed forces - that have their own NATO Article 5 commitment.
Exposing liars and disinformation is the right way to confront a dictatorship, not suspending free speech.
I think this is yet another mistake by the EU. I hope we don't make it.
I have some sympathy for what you are saying. Momentarily we will go to bed self satisfied, but wake to the news the bbc that cuts through to a great many in Russia has been banned, whilst gibberish with no viewing figures in this country is the counterweight to that loss.
If you are are so pent up with frustration can’t do more to help, perhaps because you were too slow, missed a boat and it’s too late, you end up just doing “stuff” some of it even counter productive?
If anybody had time to waste on Comical Ali awarded RT, then they are the lazy and useless smelly who have’t forked the compost in yet and never swill out their wheelie bin. Let’s call them out for what they are.
In all the bleak and depressing news our son and daughter in law and their two children called round this afternoon and announced that no three is due on the 1st September
Total surprise but wonderful news and our 5th grandchild
Fantastic! Pass on the congrats of "an internet rando" (me).
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Ha!
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.
Wow. That's absolutely huge. Good on BP shareholders for forcing the issue.
Who are they going to sell it to?
No one. They are writing it off.
Isn’t that effectively transferring a certain fraction of the worth of the company to the Russians?
Yes it all goes back to Rosneft. But the reason BP would have been involved was capital investment that was needed to run operations and upon which they get a return. By pulling out they are helping to isolate Rosneft from the investment sources they need to continue to operate. BP are taking a hit here but it seriously undermines the viability of Rosneft and their ability to operate.
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbc
I have some feeling the moment of worst danger is over. I hope I'm right.
Really? I feel the opposite.
On what basis?
Zelenskiy's last statement, my sense of China playing a role behind the scenes, Putin having to accommodate things, and one of my general "feelings". Sometimes my "feelings" are right, such as early on in Covid about when it was starting to level out, and other times not so good, but I'm feeling more hopeful.
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko's response when asked by AP's @FrancescaEbel if there are plans to evacuate civilians from the city ... after a few seconds silence.... "We can't do that, because all ways are blocked," he finally said. "Right now we are encircled." https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/1497990061547216907
Should also mention because it isn't being mentioned enough elsewhere that the Russian central bank have appealed for calm after so many people tried to get their money out of ATMs.
The full banking crisis starts tomorrow though, when people can't their money out of branches....
Yup. China will turn the screws and extract its demands, too. Settle this down or no help.
It would be somewhat par for the course of this fucked up campaign if it were the bankers wot won it.....
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbc
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
I don't like the accusation of trolling but, truly, this really does sound like it's being written in the Kremlin.
Careful Heathener. Even the Kremlin isn't that pathetic. They could reasonably sue for libel.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
I don't like the accusation of trolling but, truly, this really does sound like it's being written in the Kremlin.
Most accusations of trolling are just frustration at an unliked opinion. But I cannot see how someone could genuinely hold the view that invasion was justifiable on the basis Putin was angry at not being listened to. That's so far beyond taking a view about seeking to address concerns.
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbc
Everything must change so that things can remain the same. Decision making in and between democracies can be slow, depressingly slow, but when things start to move, they can move quickly. We live in a Europe that is entirely different to the one that existed a week ago. This is beginning to feel like 1989.
That's good, finally all the Thatcher stuff will be relevant again, whcih should make political activists happy.
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbc
If you're not a troll, you are an excellent spoof
The Stuart Truth of the Ukraine Crisis.
Maybe it is Stuart? Maybe he's been out of work since the Romney election?
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbc
This is shite.
I've been reading some of RT (a channel on which I have been interviewed btw) and many of the articles are disgraceful. There is NO justification on any grounds for what Putin has done in Ukraine and his state broadcasting should not be permitted to broadcast in western Europe until his forces withdraw.
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Though it is worth pointing out that we never made it illegal to listen to Lord Haw Haw in WW2. I think you probably need to give people some credit for their ability to discern propaganda. The more important point is the one made earlier that a tit for tat would cut off many Russians from the BBC which is an important source of information.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Ha!
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.
Your two-year-old threatened to nuke you if she couldn't have some sweeties?
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Ha!
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.
She launched wars of aggression ? Disturbing precocity.
If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.
Even that's risky for tracking reasons. I suspect the Russians cant find him or his ministers as no indication of a deliberate strike against him. I thought the GRU operating incognito in Kiev might have given such an assault a crack early on but a lot of them appear to have picked up.
Just one other note: I see occasional comments about the idea of Russian poor conscripts who barely know the right end of a gun being thrown into this conflict. The Russian military in-theater is majority contract professionals.
Wow. That's absolutely huge. Good on BP shareholders for forcing the issue.
Who are they going to sell it to?
No one. They are writing it off.
Isn’t that effectively transferring a certain fraction of the worth of the company to the Russians?
Yes it all goes back to Rosneft. But the reason BP would have been involved was capital investment that was needed to run operations and upon which they get a return. By pulling out they are helping to isolate Rosneft from the investment sources they need to continue to operate. BP are taking a hit here but it seriously undermines the viability of Rosneft and their ability to operate.
Politically perhaps this will - as a side effect - spike any debate of a windfall tax.
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Rt has its place as a counterweight to the propaganda of the bbc
What are you on about?
Putin is a great man who launched a massive miltiary invasion as a totally reasonable measure because people wouldn't return his emails about Ukrainians seeking nukes or something, hadn't you noticed?
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Ha!
I know. My two-year-old used to do the same when I told her she couldn't have things, so obviously I finished up giving her everything she wanted.
Your two-year-old threatened to nuke you if she couldn't have some sweeties?
If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.
Even that's risky for tracking reasons. I suspect the Russians cant find him or his ministers as no indication of a deliberate strike against him. I thought the GRU operating incognito in Kiev might have given such an assault a crack early on but a lot of them appear to have picked up.
Just one other note: I see occasional comments about the idea of Russian poor conscripts who barely know the right end of a gun being thrown into this conflict. The Russian military in-theater is majority contract professionals.
Agreed. It's very dangerous to underestimate the Russians, and they can learn quickly.
Should also mention because it isn't being mentioned enough elsewhere that the Russian central bank have appealed for calm after so many people tried to get their money out of ATMs.
The full banking crisis starts tomorrow though, when people can't their money out of branches....
Yup. China will turn the screws and extract its demands, too. Settle this down or no help.
It would be somewhat par for the course of this fucked up campaign if it were the bankers wot won it.....
China could make some easy gains in Russia's disillusioned empire as a result of this.
(I don't particularly think the Chinese want to Empire-build in a European sense)
Not sure having the government deciding who can or cannot broadcast is a good thing. An arms-length regulator is a much better idea.
I find this kind of wishy-washy sentimentalism over civil liberties when the whole western world is getting sucked into an actual war on the ground, which has just been taken to a whole different nuclear threat level, naive and touching.
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
So you believe in freedom of speech, right up to the point where you find it convenient to silence someone? And probably in no imprisonment without trial, right up to when you find a really nasy piece of work who hasn't *technically* broken any laws *yet.* It's not wishy-washy sentimentalism you dislike, it's civil liberties. I'd suggest a move to Moscow, you can pick up a really nice flat very reasonably if you pay in dollars.
My best case of NATO's response in the case of Putin using nuclear weapons is that it would be launch targeted Trident strikes on all Russian military and nuclear launch facilities to cripple its capability to fight, and would try and destroy Putin personally.
It wouldn't look to irradiate and destroy its major cities, although there would undoubtedly be major collateral damage.
It would depend on the target. If the targets are in Ukraine, I would *not* respond with nukes. I would get a worldwide moratorium on Russia and everything Russian. Make them a pariah state (more so than at the moment).
Sadly, we may need to respond with nukes if the targets were anywhere outside Ukraine.
What worries me is if Russia used chemical or biological weapons. They have the capability, and we don't. Our only response is nuclear.
Russia has already used nuclear and chemical weapons on our soil.
Sweden to send Ukraine cash, helmets and anti-tank weapons.
Will Putin consider this to be military assistance? If so, this may be the last you’ll ever hear from this particular troublesome Jock.
was for these unintended consequences the phrase “give war a chance” was invented.
I may be drunk. I may be Christian. And this may be too deep. But this is God’s design. For all the pain, good can come from it too. Like people being brought back together, or finding each other for the first time, or seeing clearly, and connecting with their cause. (And cantankerous ex pat jocks with rubbish avatar they should have changed ages ago now disappearing off our site) good consequences. What befell Stephen may have been violent and horrible, but the consequence it proved catalyst to spread the good news around the world.
God designed the storms of winter, so we can know spring again.
IMV the longer Putin rants and raves about nukes in the manner he is, the less likely he is to be able to use them. Sane people in the Russian chain of command are more likely to see sense.
At some point, the UK government has very serious thinking to do about what an entirely new EU and a NATO in which the German voice is so much louder means for us as a country. None of this would have seemed even remotely likely just a week ago. All past assumptions are gone.
Yep it's not just the nuclear threat, we are right on the verge of a huge escalation dragging in other countries.
The western world, probably the whole world, stands right now on the edge of a precipice.
The best hope is that Russian generals see sense and remove the madman. We need to incentivise them to do so.
Yes. This feels awfully dangerous now. We are one or two geopolitical missteps from a massive war across eastern Europe. And a couple more errors from actual nuclear conflict
When it comes nuclear war will be quick - Hopefully governments in the west are toning down their (understandable) reaction so far and offering Putin a way out .Its sad but Ukraine holding out has made the world a more dangerous place. Escalation here can go exponentially within a couple of hours
Not another one!
No-one on this forum has experienced the horrors of war. Iam a man of peace and want a solution hence we must listen to russias concerns before disaster engulfs the west
O man of peace; Could you just remind us what was the Russian concern which will be solved for them by an ultra violent invasion of a UN recognised non NATO sovereign country bigger than France?
Invasion was sadly a last resort...Putin felt he wasn't listened to and got angry and lashed out
For FS just give it up. Brave, innocent men, women and children are dying as we speak. I am frankly not in the mood to listen to a pathetic apologist for a murderous despot.
On the rights of Russian and Ukrainians in Donetsk.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/isolation?utm_source=url … The art foundation was expelled, and its premises, the old insulation factory, taken over by Russian-backed separatists. They transformed it into a concentration camp and torture facility, which it remains, under Russian control, to this day. "Isolation" then took on yet a third meaning: not insulation materials, not the solitude of the artist, but the loneliness of the tortured. The art foundation itself moved to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
In the history of this one building, then, we can see three phases of the recent history of Ukraine: the Soviet Union (the factory), independent Ukraine (the experiment), and Russian occupation (the camp). This story has been told a few times in the West but is not, I think, very well known. It is a small part of the recent history of Ukraine that helps to explain why Ukrainians resist the way they do…
We are relying on the tact and diplomatic finesse of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
No we aren't.
The time for tact was before Russia invaded. Macron tried that and it was a disaster (no objection to him trying).
Boris has been through this wonderfully blunt and untactful. Between Macron and Boris there was a good cop/bad cop dynamic.
That last thing that is needed at the minute is tact.
What’s your view of the endgame? Not sure we should be putting all our eggs in the basket where Putin changes his mind or suddenly throws his hands up and says he’s had enough.
At some point, someone, somewhere will have to be clever. Hopefully they are doing that now.
Is there a Russian general who doesn’t like this, who needs reassurances?
We are relying on the tact and diplomatic finesse of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
No we aren't.
The time for tact was before Russia invaded. Macron tried that and it was a disaster (no objection to him trying).
Boris has been through this wonderfully blunt and untactful. Between Macron and Boris there was a good cop/bad cop dynamic.
That last thing that is needed at the minute is tact.
Boris is doing fine. He still has lots of questions to answer, but he's doing his job as PM reasonably well. Starmer also doing a good job - good support for the main theme, but adding ideas and pointing at shortfalls.
Also, despite all the disagreements it's pretty clear that the Western nations have great relationships with one another. Poland being able to clobber Germany with rhetoric!
If you were Zelenskyy right now, would you go to the Belarus border for a meeting right now? Highly risky
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
I don’t think he’s going . That would be far too risky and so I would have thought he’s sending representatives.
Even that's risky for tracking reasons. I suspect the Russians cant find him or his ministers as no indication of a deliberate strike against him. I thought the GRU operating incognito in Kiev might have given such an assault a crack early on but a lot of them appear to have picked up.
Just one other note: I see occasional comments about the idea of Russian poor conscripts who barely know the right end of a gun being thrown into this conflict. The Russian military in-theater is majority contract professionals.
An interesting clip here. A Russian column being turned around by a bunch of civilians refusing to get out of the road.
Not sure it’s her decision to make. She’ll probably be out of office in September.
The polls show S+V usually ahead of M+KD+C by a few points, so a change probably depends on willingness of the Moderates to team up with the Sweden Democrats. Have they softened on that?
Comments
Sweden will not be joining NATO.
Not sure it’s her decision to make. She’ll probably be out of office in September.
As mentioned yesterday, President Big Hat is due to commit forces over the next 48-72 hours and that has been confirmed by the Ukrainians this afternoon, who said they had reports of Belarus forces prepping. This might be an important addition because it potentially enables the opening of a new front, if the Belarus military can fight.
And we don't have a response. AIUI, until either Clinton or Obama, the official US response was to use nukes.
Truss did mean whatever your views on this war, British passport holder, but with family ties with one of the protagonists, it’s okay to go and fight for them in this war and come back in afterwards. So politically and morally that is right, fits in with our history and what UK has always been about, just legally it’s tricky?
It would be how it all ties up legally would be a problem wouldn’t it. In this case it’s straightforward in layman’s eyes - Putin, and a few dozen bastards in a bunker, versus the rest of the world, but courts would need something for less clear cut cases where one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter?
I'd be on the same side as the bet as you hence my 'only'.
https://warsawinstitute.org/russias-rosneft-paid-exorbitant-amount-mystery-consultant-kurdistan/
"In early 2019, Rosneft agreed to convert $1.8 billion of its advances into a 60 percent stake in the oil pipeline that provides the only route for the company to export the region’s oil."
Ahead of the UK on this
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557565/EU-clamps-oligarchs-Kremlins-media-machine.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-news-war-putin-zelensky-nato-latest-updates/
I think that means Boris has to go. We need, at a minimum, a Prime Minister who is in control of their own mouth. Boris isn't.
Ha!
In my element here.
https://boingboing.net/2017/04/07/that-dr-stranglove-scene-wher.html
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497966928815603715
One way that the West could increase likelihood of this outcome is to enact sanctions on more members of the intelligence services and the military further down the chain, as well as their families. Eg. General officers and even colonels https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497982559782846478
Have you looked at the stuff coming out on RT? Some of it is utterly disgraceful. There is NO place for RT to be broadcasting at the present time.
When Putin removes Russian troops from Ukraine, fine they can re-broadcast.
Some numbers here :https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/
Price about $250 per 1000 cm.
I simply went for the capacity of NS1 for a ballpark - 55 BCM.
Either way it's a lorra-lorra dosh they are still getting.
Few can travel there because almost all international flights have ceased.
Credit cards and other international means of payment will cease.
The stock market and Russian bonds will collapse.
Putin is a true disaster for Russia.
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1497972367695310849
No reason this can’t be left to an independent regulator, rather than decided by a politician.
Ukraine effectively gets NATO by the back door?
If you are are so pent up with frustration can’t do more to help, perhaps because you were too slow, missed a boat and it’s too late, you end up just doing “stuff” some of it even counter productive?
If anybody had time to waste on Comical Ali awarded RT, then they are the lazy and useless smelly who have’t forked the compost in yet and never swill out their wheelie bin. Let’s call them out for what they are.
On what basis?
(Who Timothy Leary?)
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko's response when asked by AP's @FrancescaEbel if there are plans to evacuate civilians from the city
... after a few seconds silence....
"We can't do that, because all ways are blocked," he finally said. "Right now we are encircled."
https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/1497990061547216907
Maybe it is Stuart? Maybe he's been out of work since the Romney election?
I've been reading some of RT (a channel on which I have been interviewed btw) and many of the articles are disgraceful. There is NO justification on any grounds for what Putin has done in Ukraine and his state broadcasting should not be permitted to broadcast in western Europe until his forces withdraw.
Disturbing precocity.
Just one other note: I see occasional comments about the idea of Russian poor conscripts who barely know the right end of a gun being thrown into this conflict. The Russian military in-theater is majority contract professionals.
The time for tact was before Russia invaded. Macron tried that and it was a disaster (no objection to him trying).
Boris has been through this wonderfully blunt and untactful. Between Macron and Boris there was a good cop/bad cop dynamic.
That last thing that is needed at the minute is tact.
This is such an amazing forum as we collectively, across the political divide, come together to celebrate good news
The very best of PB
(I don't particularly think the Chinese want to Empire-build in a European sense)
EDIT: Bugger, back to 0-0
I don't think Putin has many boundaries.
I may be drunk. I may be Christian. And this may be too deep. But this is God’s design. For all the pain, good can come from it too. Like people being brought back together, or finding each other for the first time, or seeing clearly, and connecting with their cause. (And cantankerous ex pat jocks with rubbish avatar they should have changed ages ago now disappearing off our site) good consequences. What befell Stephen may have been violent and horrible, but the consequence it proved catalyst to spread the good news around the world.
God designed the storms of winter, so we can know spring again.
What worries me is a quick, impromptu usage.
Shame
https://snyder.substack.com/p/isolation?utm_source=url
… The art foundation was expelled, and its premises, the old insulation factory, taken over by Russian-backed separatists. They transformed it into a concentration camp and torture facility, which it remains, under Russian control, to this day. "Isolation" then took on yet a third meaning: not insulation materials, not the solitude of the artist, but the loneliness of the tortured. The art foundation itself moved to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
In the history of this one building, then, we can see three phases of the recent history of Ukraine: the Soviet Union (the factory), independent Ukraine (the experiment), and Russian occupation (the camp). This story has been told a few times in the West but is not, I think, very well known. It is a small part of the recent history of Ukraine that helps to explain why Ukrainians resist the way they do…
At some point, someone, somewhere will have to be clever. Hopefully they are doing that now.
Is there a Russian general who doesn’t like this, who needs reassurances?
Am I the only one running through my plans for "what would we (Mrs. P and I) do in the event of a full-scale nuclear war"?
(Hint, none of the options involve long-term survival).
That was yesterday.
Also, despite all the disagreements it's pretty clear that the Western nations have great relationships with one another. Poland being able to clobber Germany with rhetoric!
https://twitter.com/IrmatovUzbek/status/1497968372910374918?t=pSR_NRzpNtpJMFvMlM_1UQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497972564634882048
We are stepping up our support for Ukraine.
For the first time, the EU will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and equipment to a country under attack.
We are also strengthening our sanctions against the Kremlin.