Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
The top Ukrainian diplomat stresses that despite agreeing to meet with the Russian delegation on the Ukraine-Belarus border: "We will not surrender. We will not capitulate. We will not give up a single inch of our territory. This is not the goal of our fight." https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497943324308779011
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
The Russian armed forces are bigger than those of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland combined.
Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
Putin will fill his breeks when he sees your amphibious tank.
The UK also has Trident nuclear missiles, only ourselves and the French can nuke Moscow of the NATO European nations and Putin knows that
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
A very good move the world needs peace...we need a good negotiated settlement fair to both sides and that recognises russias concerns
Fuck off. Your boy has just escalated to nuclear war.
We give nothing to the maniac.
I think that's hyperbole...we may not like putin but he is trying to defend russias interests....
Which reside inside the Russian borders. Illigal war aggression against a state that voluntarily disbanded its nuclear weapons, invasion and murder are protecting Russian interests in what way?
I think putin saw war as a last resort...
He was absolutely backed into a corner by Ukraine doing... doing... doing... ummm... nothing at all.
I believe they looked at him in a funny way.
Deep down, I suspect that's Putin's problem.
For a long time, Russia was taken seriously becuase Russian threats had to be taken seriously. The rest of the world didn't taunt the bear, because the bear had sharp teeth and claws.
For all sorts of reasons, but mostly because the world economy has moved on a lot and Russia's hasn't, those teeth and claws aren't as significant any more. It's a lot more rational to shrug when Russia pouts; Russia can cause trouble but it's not the nation it was.
And to a fair degree, that's because its economy has been run into the ground by thieves. You need money to support power.
And that lack of money is largely because of the man who has been in charge for the last couple of decades. That realisation would certainly drive me potty.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
It’s really simple.
Putin’s generals will make it quite clear, that he launches a nuclear weapon about an hour before downtown Moscow gets turned into glass.
If he still goes for it, and if everyone down the line of command goes for it, then that’s on them.
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
“I was wrong” - words not seen on the internet very often!
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
The Russian armed forces are bigger than those of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland combined.
Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
I read that there around 90k members of the US forces (dunno how that breaks down in service arms and kit) currently in Europe with more on the way. Do you think there's the slightest chance of them being withdrawn?
I assume not under Biden, if Trump returns as President in 2024 that is a possibility
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
It is impossible to really know during the fog of war. It could be the Russian military aren't up to snuff, and Putin has been conned by his own military top brass. But it could be that they misjudged the level of resistance they would face and put out the equivalent of Man City playing their 3rd XI in the Carabao Cup and finding it much more difficult against Hull City on a wet Tuesday night than they thought.
Some of the weaponry the Russians have, that they haven't deployed to the front line is pretty terrifying stuff.
Is it possible that Lukashenko might want to cut a deal?
Lukashenko has a big problem today: he’s holding a pre-planned “constitutional reform referendum” which means people are going out to vote across the country. And many of them are shouting “No to war”.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
I doubt if many kleptocrats want to spend the rest of their lives living underground, and eating tinned pineapple.
Religious fanatics are the only people who I'd worry might not be deterred.
No, I think. Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
Doing nothing is rather the equivalent of "point and laugh"....
We don't need to get our nukes out the pawn shop.
No, you borrow Trident from their home at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia.
France has an independent mass murder system. The Yookay doesn’t.
Yes we do, with submarines armed with Trident nuclear missiles on patrol at any one time.
The Naval Submarine Base in Georgia is just the US Trident submarines base. Even if we leased them off the Americans it is still the UK PM who would authorise their use.
The French do not have Trident nuclear weapons though unlike the UK and USA, so their nuclear weapons while still weapons of mass destruction are not as powerful as ours
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
We cannot base policy on wild hopes
Do you think the USSR should have surrendered when Nazi Germany invaded instead of basing its policy on the "wild hope" of victory?
A very good move the world needs peace...we need a good negotiated settlement fair to both sides and that recognises russias concerns
Fuck off. Your boy has just escalated to nuclear war.
We give nothing to the maniac.
I think that's hyperbole...we may not like putin but he is trying to defend russias interests....
Which reside inside the Russian borders. Illigal war aggression against a state that voluntarily disbanded its nuclear weapons, invasion and murder are protecting Russian interests in what way?
I think putin saw war as a last resort...
He was absolutely backed into a corner by Ukraine doing... doing... doing... ummm... nothing at all.
I believe they looked at him in a funny way.
Deep down, I suspect that's Putin's problem.
For a long time, Russia was taken seriously becuase Russian threats had to be taken seriously. The rest of the world didn't taunt the bear, because the bear had sharp teeth and claws.
For all sorts of reasons, but mostly because the world economy has moved on a lot and Russia's hasn't, those teeth and claws aren't as significant any more. It's a lot more rational to shrug when Russia pouts; Russia can cause trouble but it's not the nation it was.
And to a fair degree, that's because its economy has been run into the ground by thieves. You need money to support power.
And that lack of money is largely because of the man who has been in charge for the last couple of decades. That realisation would certainly drive me potty.
Read Krastev & Holmes for an insight as to what Putin is about.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
It’s really simple.
Putin’s generals will make it quite clear, that he launches a nuclear weapon about an hour before downtown Moscow gets turned into glass.
If he still goes for it, and if everyone down the line of command goes for it, then that’s on them.
And the 500 rem ash will be on us, or those of us that are left. I'll remember to feel virtuous at that point.
Is it possible that Lukashenko might want to cut a deal?
Lukashenko has a big problem today: he’s holding a pre-planned “constitutional reform referendum” which means people are going out to vote across the country. And many of them are shouting “No to war”.
It’s not a rally you want on the day you are asking people to allow Russia to place Russian Nuclear weapons on their land
any yes vote is going to be seen to be the fabricated lie that it is…
No, I think. Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
Doing nothing is rather the equivalent of "point and laugh"....
We don't need to get our nukes out the pawn shop.
No, you borrow Trident from their home at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia.
France has an independent mass murder system. The Yookay doesn’t.
For the four millionth time, our Trident system is completely operationally independent and only relies on the US help for deep maintenance of missiles.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
Is it possible that Lukashenko might want to cut a deal?
Lukashenko has a big problem today: he’s holding a pre-planned “constitutional reform referendum” which means people are going out to vote across the country. And many of them are shouting “No to war”.
That's ok. If the wrong answer if given by 80% of the country, he'll ensure that the right answer is given by the other 90%.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
Well, to gain an idea of the other way of doing it: all we have to do is assure Putin that if he fires his nukes, we will, under no circumstances, fire back. Even if he rains nuclear fire on London and all of the UK - we won't do anything and will merely accept it.
Personally, I don't think that would help.
The reason that it's of value as a deterrent is that it is a second strike system. Which means that we would use it if we were already attacked. And we would therefore have nothing left to lose.
Game theory came into existence because of the implications of this. We don't threaten to use it unless they use theirs first. At which point, it's no longer the actions of a madman to use it. Because what would we have lost? We'd already have incurred the loss.
And they - their entire command chain down to the people who actually have to turn the keys - would know that the retaliatory strike would be coming if they went ahead.
It may not be sufficient to deter. But its absence would certainly not have any prospect of deterrence.
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
I seriously doubt he'll see a court. In fact I'm certain of it. He wins now or is dead. Literally not metaphorically.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
The Russian armed forces are bigger than those of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland combined.
Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
I read that there around 90k members of the US forces (dunno how that breaks down in service arms and kit) currently in Europe with more on the way. Do you think there's the slightest chance of them being withdrawn?
I assume not under Biden, if Trump returns as President in 2024 that is a possibility
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
In that scenario, whoever "they" would be, their exact locations would have to be very well classified if they wished to avoid being glassified.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
Much sympathy with this, but two points:
For some years I felt we should negotiate away our deterrent but then Trump became POTUS and half the USA went insane and I changed my mind.
All the stuff about only a madman would use it, so it only helps a madman would be fine if, and only if, we could uninvent it. That is not on.
Best we can do: a few sane (sort of) countries have it, including France and UK. Because of that there is slightly less chance that a madman will use it because the people around him will tell him some of the truth and even refuse to obey orders.
I hope we would not use it in pure retaliation, but the Faustian pact of the nuclear deal requires that this is a secret your enemies are not quite sure of.
No, I think. Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
Doing nothing is rather the equivalent of "point and laugh"....
We don't need to get our nukes out the pawn shop.
No, you borrow Trident from their home at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia.
France has an independent mass murder system. The Yookay doesn’t.
For the four millionth time, our Trident system is completely operationally independent and only relies on the US help for deep maintenance of missiles.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
That's a good plan. Go out into a part of the world whose economy is based on mineral exports. Then when the entire world economy collapses, you can join the riots in Novosibirsk where two million people will be fighting for the last loaf of bread. An excellent chance to practise your judo, but I don't fancy a 69-year-old's chances of enjoying anything more than a lingering, gnawing starvation.
We are closing on the point of maximum danger. Russia faces a Ukrainian army that is being reinforced and re-equipped far quicker than they are. The armed forces of both Russia and Belarus are facing significant problems, and clearly Lukashenka is trying to save his own skin by being useful in trying to stop the escalation to a nuclear exchange that Putin is threatening.
Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.
No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.
Ukraine has shown, once again, I *think*, that having the best intelligence is a war winner. If the UK and US can announce the Russian moves before they can make them , you can bet that the Ukrainians are getting that first.
I think there is a non-trivial possibility that Putin will start thinking in terms of tactical nuclear weapons.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
He could invade most of Europe? Is there some recent evidence for that assertion?
The Russian armed forces are bigger than those of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland combined.
Without US support in theory yes. Most European nations have cut their defence budgets by far too much in recent years and only the UK and France have nuclear weapons as a last resort
I read that there around 90k members of the US forces (dunno how that breaks down in service arms and kit) currently in Europe with more on the way. Do you think there's the slightest chance of them being withdrawn?
I assume not under Biden, if Trump returns as President in 2024 that is a possibility
Top tip, when invading a foreign nation, and you run out of supplies, don't go to a police station to ask for fuel. Unless, say, you really don't want to be fighting in the war.
No, I think. Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
Doing nothing is rather the equivalent of "point and laugh"....
We don't need to get our nukes out the pawn shop.
No, you borrow Trident from their home at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia.
France has an independent mass murder system. The Yookay doesn’t.
Yes we do, with submarines armed with Trident nuclear missiles on patrol at any one time.
The Naval Submarine Base in Georgia is just the US Trident submarines base
Ho ho. DYOR.
As the UK has Trident nuclear weapons unlike the French, even if leased, the UK has the most powerful nuclear weapons under their disposal. So while Macron and Boris have a nuclear button of European leaders, Boris' nuclear button has longer range and more power.
Macron and Boris might concern Putin, Sturgeon certainly never will. Hence it is so vital for Scotland it benefits from Trident in the UK
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
No. A full scale nuclear escalation will essentially destroy and irradiate enough of the land that the only possible outcome is irreversible decline in every major nation. There’ll be no wonderful Shangri La hiding under the mountains or in some small corner of Russia.
Humanity may survive in some pockets, but the outcome will be hundreds of years of anarchy, starvation and turmoil, the world over.
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
It's hard to tell at this point whether it's more a case of the Russian's being weaker, or of the Ukrainian's being stronger, than expected.
The top Ukrainian diplomat stresses that despite agreeing to meet with the Russian delegation on the Ukraine-Belarus border: "We will not surrender. We will not capitulate. We will not give up a single inch of our territory. This is not the goal of our fight." https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497943324308779011
Realistically though the two breakaways aren’t coming back . Putin needs a ladder to climb down from and needs to be able to claim some sort of victory . Not sure what sort of fudge could be found but I sincerely hope that can be achieved .
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
"He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital."
Citation required....
FUDHY thinks that when the Tartan Army are “in” Wembley we have occupied England.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
Well, to gain an idea of the other way of doing it: all we have to do is assure Putin that if he fires his nukes, we will, under no circumstances, fire back. Even if he rains nuclear fire on London and all of the UK - we won't do anything and will merely accept it.
Personally, I don't think that would help.
The reason that it's of value as a deterrent is that it is a second strike system. Which means that we would use it if we were already attacked. And we would therefore have nothing left to lose.
Game theory came into existence because of the implications of this. We don't threaten to use it unless they use theirs first. At which point, it's no longer the actions of a madman to use it. Because what would we have lost? We'd already have incurred the loss.
And they - their entire command chain down to the people who actually have to turn the keys - would know that the retaliatory strike would be coming if they went ahead.
It may not be sufficient to deter. But its absence would certainly not have any prospect of deterrence.
One reason that the USSR got very upset about the later American systems - such as Trident - was that the accuracy meant that you could "hold at risk" even the deep leadership bunkers. Doesn't matter if you have a mountain on top, if you can hit the entrances with enough accuracy to overpressure the blast door systems.
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
We cannot base policy on wild hopes
Who is 'We'?
Most posters on PB know each other, in many cases personally but otherwise through reputation and thousands of posts. On the evidence of a handful of posts I should say you are a troll, and your views - if indeed they are yours - have attracted well-merited contempt.
You don't speak for anybody except yourself and whoever might be marking your card.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
It is reality, any conflict with Russia means World War 3,
If we are going to World War 3 it should only be as Russia has invaded a NATO nation
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
I seriously doubt he'll see a court. In fact I'm certain of it. He wins now or is dead. Literally not metaphorically.
I hope he gets a trial. Beria's trial was good enough....
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
That is more crucial than it looks. Glance at a globe, then plan a flightpath if you doubt it.
There is a fantastic (I think) Wendover Productions on why so much more important this Northern "corridor" than the South. Basically you can't go over the South due to all sorts of regulations about not being allowed more than x km from land without super special aviation licences when temperatures are below a certain level.
Top tip, when invading a foreign nation, and you run out of supplies, don't go to a police station to ask for fuel. Unless, say, you really don't want to be fighting in the war.
The Russians have briefed their soldiers, that they’ll be welcomed with open arms in Ukraine.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
It is reality, any conflict with Russia means World War 3,
If we are going to World War 3 it should only be as Russia has invaded a NATO nation
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
I seriously doubt he'll see a court. In fact I'm certain of it. He wins now or is dead. Literally not metaphorically.
Yes, we are entering a period of danger as Putin faces defeat. Some commitment by Ukraine to not join NATO might be enough to get a withdrawal and allow Putin to retire alive. More likely the Russian military are going to have to act to remove him and we had better pray they do so soon and effectively.
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes
We cannot base policy on wild hopes
Who is 'We'?
Most posters on PB know each other, in many cases personally but otherwise through reputation and thousands of posts. On the evidence of a handful of posts I should say you are a troll, and your views - if indeed they are yours - have attracted well-merited contempt.
You don't speak for anybody except yourself and whoever might be marking your card.
It appears that Russia's internet trolls are performing as badly as their military this week.
This Ukrainian resistance is exactly what I've been predicting in Taiwan for years. Except they've been preparing for it since King George and Attlee. There's a reason a rational PRC hasn't even come close to invasion.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
It’s really simple.
Putin’s generals will make it quite clear, that he launches a nuclear weapon about an hour before downtown Moscow gets turned into glass.
If he still goes for it, and if everyone down the line of command goes for it, then that’s on them.
Yep, I'm sure he and his team know the upshot of going nuclear. But is he mad enough to do it and if he is would others stop him? These are the questions burning for me - not that I expect anybody to know the answers otherwise they should be off here and on the phone to Washington!
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
No. A full scale nuclear escalation will essentially destroy and irradiate enough of the land that the only possible outcome is irreversible decline in every major nation. There’ll be no wonderful Shangri La hiding under the mountains or in some small corner of Russia.
Humanity may survive in some pockets, but the outcome will be hundreds of years of anarchy, starvation and turmoil, the world over.
Indeed. That has been the prospect ever since the 1940s. We just invented mini skirts, decent music and iPhones to try and distract ourselves from The Big Fact staring us in the face.
At some point it will happen. Maybe not next month or next decade or next century, but it is definitely coming.
Most likely homo sapiens fragmentary survivors are going to be those adept at hunting and gathering. Alaskan electoral reformers perhaps?
That is more crucial than it looks. Glance at a globe, then plan a flightpath if you doubt it.
There is a fantastic (I think) Wendover Productions on why so much more important this Northern "corridor" than the South. Basically you can't go over the South due to all sorts of regulations about not being allowed more than x km from land without super special aviation licences when temperatures are below a certain level.
ETOPS regulations are the bugger to southern operations.
No, I think. Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.
Doing nothing is rather the equivalent of "point and laugh"....
We don't need to get our nukes out the pawn shop.
No, you borrow Trident from their home at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia.
France has an independent mass murder system. The Yookay doesn’t.
Yes we do, with submarines armed with Trident nuclear missiles on patrol at any one time.
The Naval Submarine Base in Georgia is just the US Trident submarines base. Even if we leased them off the Americans it is still the UK PM who would authorise their use.
The French do not have Trident nuclear weapons though unlike the UK and USA, so their nuclear weapons while still weapons of mass destruction are not as powerful as ours
The French SLBM warheads have similar yields to the UK warheads - neither country deploys a weapon as large as the W-88.
The French missiles have a bit less range and the accuracy is supposed to be a bit less as well.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Sadly, whilst I believe HYUFD is morally wrong, practically I think he is right. Nuking Kiev is not an act of war against NATO. So what do NATO do in response? Do they put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Do they shoot down Russian aircraft? At that point Putin would argue that legally it is NATO who have attacked Russia. I do think there are any good outcomes from that.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
No. A full scale nuclear escalation will essentially destroy and irradiate enough of the land that the only possible outcome is irreversible decline in every major nation. There’ll be no wonderful Shangri La hiding under the mountains or in some small corner of Russia.
Humanity may survive in some pockets, but the outcome will be hundreds of years of anarchy, starvation and turmoil, the world over.
Inevitably the Johnson family will survive and clamber its way over a hill of skulls to self preservation and influence.
Stanley: Well, at least we've solved the over population problem and saved some of the best DNA available.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
While you're here, why don't you do something useful, and give us your expert opinion of what percentage of the Russian leadership is (1) as mad as Putin, (2) madder than Putin and (3) less mad than Putin.
Oh, and maybe you happen to know whether there's a duty psychiatrist "on" the Kremlin?
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
It is reality, any conflict with Russia means World War 3,
If we are going to World War 3 it should only be as Russia has invaded a NATO nation
Them nuking a friendly nation is WW3.
Anything else is contemptible.
No, it is called realpolitik.
We are only obliged to defend NATO nations, Ukraine is not in NATO.
If there was not any prospect of Ukraine ever being in NATO Putin probably would not have invaded it in the first place.
We gave supplies to Ukraine before the war, we have imposed economic sanctions on Russia now Putin has invaded but we are not going to WW3 over it
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
It is impossible to really know during the fog of war. It could be the Russian military aren't up to snuff, and Putin has been conned by his own military top brass. But it could be that they misjudged the level of resistance they would face and put out the equivalent of Man City playing their 3rd XI in the Carabao Cup and finding it much more difficult against Hull City on a wet Tuesday night than they thought.
Some of the weaponry the Russians have, that they haven't deployed to the front line is pretty terrifying stuff.
Rob Lee @RALee85 · 32m Today may have been the worst day for the Russian military in Ukraine so far. They are still advancing, but there were a # of videos of destroyed or abandoned equipment and units. I have no idea why they sent in a small spetsnaz unit into Kharkiv, but it was easily repelled.
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
It's hard to tell at this point whether it's more a case of the Russian's being weaker, or of the Ukrainian's being stronger, than expected.
Both, of course. Zelensky's inspirational leadership has been a big factor. But I think the biggest surprise has been poor execution by the Russians.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Sadly, whilst I believe HYUFD is morally wrong, practically I think he is right. Nuking Kiev is not an act of war against NATO. So what do NATO do in response? Do they put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Do they shoot down Russian aircraft? At that point Putin would argue that legally it is NATO who have attacked Russia. I do think there are any good outcomes from that.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
Nuking Kiev is a crime against humanity that NATO would have to take as an act of war.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
No. A full scale nuclear escalation will essentially destroy and irradiate enough of the land that the only possible outcome is irreversible decline in every major nation. There’ll be no wonderful Shangri La hiding under the mountains or in some small corner of Russia.
Humanity may survive in some pockets, but the outcome will be hundreds of years of anarchy, starvation and turmoil, the world over.
Inevitably the Johnson family will survive and clamber its way over a hill of skulls to self preservation and influence.
Stanley: Well, at least we've solved the over population problem and preserved some of the best DNA available.
Peter Hitchens' wasp metaphor doesn't work well for anyone who knows even a little bit about wasps. Most species of wasps live by preying on insects and spiders, which they kill by stinging them -- whether or not the prey has "provoked" them.
There are even species of wasps that prey on other wasps, as I learned from a February 22nd article in the New York Times. The first wasp comes along and deposits its eggs in a plant, where the form a "gall". Then other wasps come along and lay their eggs in the developing wasp larvae. (These secondary parasites were thought to be a single species, Omyrus Labotus, but it turns out there are at least sixteen different species which look very much alike.)
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
No. A full scale nuclear escalation will essentially destroy and irradiate enough of the land that the only possible outcome is irreversible decline in every major nation. There’ll be no wonderful Shangri La hiding under the mountains or in some small corner of Russia.
Humanity may survive in some pockets, but the outcome will be hundreds of years of anarchy, starvation and turmoil, the world over.
Inevitably the Johnson family will survive and clamber its way over a hill of skulls to self preservation and influence.
Stanley: Well, at least we've solved the over population problem and preserved some of the best DNA available.
Whatever gifts the Johnson family have given civilisation, top quality DNA isn’t one of them.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
It’s really simple.
Putin’s generals will make it quite clear, that he launches a nuclear weapon about an hour before downtown Moscow gets turned into glass.
If he still goes for it, and if everyone down the line of command goes for it, then that’s on them.
Yep, I'm sure he and his team know the upshot of going nuclear. But is he mad enough to do it and if he is would others stop him? These are the questions burning for me - not that I expect anybody to know the answers otherwise they should be off here and on the phone to Washington!
I have to believe that the top brass in Moscow have not gone so completely cuckoo as to follow that order. In retaliation to a strike? Sure. But a first strike is something altogether different.
A very good move the world needs peace...we need a good negotiated settlement fair to both sides and that recognises russias concerns
Fuck off. Your boy has just escalated to nuclear war.
We give nothing to the maniac.
I think that's hyperbole...we may not like putin but he is trying to defend russias interests....
Which reside inside the Russian borders. Illigal war aggression against a state that voluntarily disbanded its nuclear weapons, invasion and murder are protecting Russian interests in what way?
I think putin saw war as a last resort...
He was absolutely backed into a corner by Ukraine doing... doing... doing... ummm... nothing at all.
Not at all, they were planning a massive assault in the Donbas. Strangely, they waited until Russia had 200k troops on the border and an agreement with Belarus to invade, before making that plan.
But then that's what to expect from drug taking Nazis.
We are closing on the point of maximum danger. Russia faces a Ukrainian army that is being reinforced and re-equipped far quicker than they are. The armed forces of both Russia and Belarus are facing significant problems, and clearly Lukashenka is trying to save his own skin by being useful in trying to stop the escalation to a nuclear exchange that Putin is threatening.
Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.
No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.
Ukraine has shown, once again, I *think*, that having the best intelligence is a war winner. If the UK and US can announce the Russian moves before they can make them , you can bet that the Ukrainians are getting that first.
I think there is a non-trivial possibility that Putin will start thinking in terms of tactical nuclear weapons.
They haven't used the fuel-air explosives yet. I would have thought they could probably flatten Kyiv with those, and not have to use tactical nukes.
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
It is impossible to really know during the fog of war. It could be the Russian military aren't up to snuff, and Putin has been conned by his own military top brass. But it could be that they misjudged the level of resistance they would face and put out the equivalent of Man City playing their 3rd XI in the Carabao Cup and finding it much more difficult against Hull City on a wet Tuesday night than they thought.
Some of the weaponry the Russians have, that they haven't deployed to the front line is pretty terrifying stuff.
I don't fancy a couple of dozen football hooligans armed with petrol bombs against that.
Are you saying they'll be bringing de Bruyne on at halftime?
More like sending on a pissed off Roy Keane....
“Imagine taking a deep breath then submerging yourself in water. Then imagine having all of the oxygen forced instantaneously from your body. Try to inhale again. But instead of cold water filling your lungs, toxic, flammable particles start killing you from the inside out,” he wrote.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
And to add to my previous comment:
Maybe "they" could head to Siberia, and maybe "they" might manage to avoid being tracked or their locations known (so that nuclear weapons would not be specifically targetted at them)
But "they" would also need to live through the firestorms triggered by all the explosions and for which so much flammable vegetation would be around.
And "they" would need to live on through the time when the fall-out blanketed much of the ground. And "they" could take refuge from the radioactive black rain.
And "they" would need to watch as the smoke rose from the burning cities into a multi-year nuclear winter. When the temperature dropped 5-20 degrees, further than during the last Ice Age (even if it is for a far shorter period). When crops did not grow. With global rainfall nearly halved and what rain there was falling mainly in the eastern Pacific (Nuclear Nino).
With all logistics chains no longer existing, no replacements for any damaged equipment.
With the ozone layer badly damaged, and, when the nuclear winter finally clears, ultraviolet spring beginning.
"They" would have a hell of a lot to manage to live through, even if they did dodge the nukes personally.
They'd be sacrificing a hell of a lot more than just Moscow.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Sadly, whilst I believe HYUFD is morally wrong, practically I think he is right. Nuking Kiev is not an act of war against NATO. So what do NATO do in response? Do they put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Do they shoot down Russian aircraft? At that point Putin would argue that legally it is NATO who have attacked Russia. I do think there are any good outcomes from that.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
Nuking Kiev is a crime against humanity that NATO would have to take as an act of war.
They would also be killing thousands of their own troops!
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Sadly, whilst I believe HYUFD is morally wrong, practically I think he is right. Nuking Kiev is not an act of war against NATO. So what do NATO do in response? Do they put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Do they shoot down Russian aircraft? At that point Putin would argue that legally it is NATO who have attacked Russia. I do think there are any good outcomes from that.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
My guess is some sort of special forces mission to try and take out Putin directly. Risky but could the West stand by and do nothing
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Sadly, whilst I believe HYUFD is morally wrong, practically I think he is right. Nuking Kiev is not an act of war against NATO. So what do NATO do in response? Do they put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Do they shoot down Russian aircraft? At that point Putin would argue that legally it is NATO who have attacked Russia. I do think there are any good outcomes from that.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
Nuking Kiev is a crime against humanity that NATO would have to take as an act of war.
There are plenty of crimes against humanity, most of them do not lead to World War 3 and involve the UK in a nuclear war.
Yes it would be an appalling act by Putin, yes we would have to cut Russia off economically, yes we could try Putin for war crimes if he was ever toppled. Yet no, we are not going to WW3 over it, only to defend our NATO allies
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
It is reality, any conflict with Russia means World War 3,
If we are going to World War 3 it should only be as Russia has invaded a NATO nation
Them nuking a friendly nation is WW3.
Anything else is contemptible.
No, it is called realpolitik.
We are only obliged to defend NATO nations, Ukraine is not in NATO.
If there was not any prospect of Ukraine ever being in NATO Putin probably would not have invaded it in the first place.
We gave supplies to Ukraine before the war, we have imposed economic sanctions on Russia now Putin has invaded but we are not going to WW3 over it
I would not care to say with confidence what our leaders would do, in the event of Russia using nuclear weapons.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.
Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?
I'm in favour of Trident.
Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.
You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.
I've got zero faith in his good nature stopping him. Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
Russia is a big country they could go to exile in siberia and sacrifice moscow in order to get in a nuclear first strike that would finish the west for good
No. A full scale nuclear escalation will essentially destroy and irradiate enough of the land that the only possible outcome is irreversible decline in every major nation. There’ll be no wonderful Shangri La hiding under the mountains or in some small corner of Russia.
Humanity may survive in some pockets, but the outcome will be hundreds of years of anarchy, starvation and turmoil, the world over.
Inevitably the Johnson family will survive and clamber its way over a hill of skulls to self preservation and influence.
Stanley: Well, at least we've solved the over population problem and preserved some of the best DNA available.
I see we are at the gallows humour stage of this.
Scots are good at it. Did you not see the result of the Scottish independence referendum? Black comedy at it’s best.
Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.
Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.
Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.
Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa
Sounds like the Chechens may be on the ropes/demoralised:
"I've been receiving messages from Chechen sources that after huge losses of Kadyrov's personal "army" (in particular: @ 70 of them were reported charred alive after a single Bayraktar strike), most of the rest returned across the border. Scenes like this corroborate such reports.:
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Sadly, whilst I believe HYUFD is morally wrong, practically I think he is right. Nuking Kiev is not an act of war against NATO. So what do NATO do in response? Do they put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Do they shoot down Russian aircraft? At that point Putin would argue that legally it is NATO who have attacked Russia. I do think there are any good outcomes from that.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
Nuking Kiev is a crime against humanity that NATO would have to take as an act of war.
I agree with you. I am just not sure if the leadership of the Western world would see things the same way knowing what the likely consequences would be.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.
After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection. The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.
I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.
The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.
Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.
It’s really simple.
Putin’s generals will make it quite clear, that he launches a nuclear weapon about an hour before downtown Moscow gets turned into glass.
If he still goes for it, and if everyone down the line of command goes for it, then that’s on them.
Yep, I'm sure he and his team know the upshot of going nuclear. But is he mad enough to do it and if he is would others stop him? These are the questions burning for me - not that I expect anybody to know the answers otherwise they should be off here and on the phone to Washington!
I have to believe that the top brass in Moscow have not gone so completely cuckoo as to follow that order. In retaliation to a strike? Sure. But a first strike is something altogether different.
They were cuckoo enough to engage in a full scale (if ineptly carried out) invasion of a large sovereign neighbour, so... I think the psychology of escalation is a real worry here.
Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.
Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.
What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him
So if he nukes Kiev that is still OK by Jeremy HYUFD Corbyn?
Away with your appeasement.
If he nukes Warsaw then obviously we would be at war, Ukraine though is not in NATO whatever he does there.
He would make Russia into a pariah state, economically isolated but it would not be the same as attacking a NATO member state
That is shameful HY. It really is. Brave Ukrainians withold Russian aggression so Putin withdraws and first strikes Kiev, but they are not in NATO so you can live with that. Shame on you.
Sadly, whilst I believe HYUFD is morally wrong, practically I think he is right. Nuking Kiev is not an act of war against NATO. So what do NATO do in response? Do they put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Do they shoot down Russian aircraft? At that point Putin would argue that legally it is NATO who have attacked Russia. I do think there are any good outcomes from that.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
Nuking Kiev is a crime against humanity that NATO would have to take as an act of war.
There are plenty of crimes against humanity, most of them do not need to World War 3 and involve the UK in a nuclear war.
Yes it would be an appalling act by Putin, yes we would have to cut Russia off economically, yes we could try Putin for war crimes if he was ever toppled. Yet no, we are not going to WW3 over it, only to defend our NATO allies
Your argument seems to be we mustn't provoke [person who would use nuclear weapons without being provoked] so that they don't use nuclear weapons.
Are you aware that there's something of a glaring logical flaw in your argument or did you somehow miss it?
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
It's hard to tell at this point whether it's more a case of the Russian's being weaker, or of the Ukrainian's being stronger, than expected.
I wasn't as pessimistic as Richard N but am nevertheless pleasantly surprised at the strength and effectiveness of Ukranian resistance. Each day they hang on turns the odds increasingly in their favour. This is presumably what has driven Putin's rather desperate nuclear gamble, and the sudden offer of talks. It's the clearest indication yet that he is losing, and badly.
The Ukranians are right to talk. Keep talking. The longer they last, the stronger the defenders become.
As for nukes, yes, Putin must be taken seriously but on no account should Ukraine's sovereignity be ceded. That would enable him to barge in anywhere with the threat of 'I'll nuke you if you resist'. If we're going to give way to that, we may as well invite him round to tea now.
Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.
He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.
It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.
If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.
If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him
Give it a break.
He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.
How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?
Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.
He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.
Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!
And yet Ukraine has still become a huge net importer of scrap metal.
Its tourism sector is also booming, people are so desperate to visit they'll hitch a ride with any random military vehicle they can find.
Anyway, looks like I was wrong a couple of days ago when I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to resist the invaders for long. Russian military might turns out to be not so mighty after all.
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
It's hard to tell at this point whether it's more a case of the Russian's being weaker, or of the Ukrainian's being stronger, than expected.
Both, of course. Zelensky's inspirational leadership has been a big factor. But I think the biggest surprise has been poor execution by the Russians.
For me the biggest surprise is how poor their propaganda has been. They don't even seem to have agreed a consistent line at home, let alone abroad.
Comments
Sometimes it is wonderful being proved wrong.
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497943324308779011
Or his generals, or anyone else in the command chain.
Again, not ideal, but the fact that everyone in the command chain would know they're killing themselves, their families, and their loved ones could at least give them pause for thought.
It's why it's called a deterrent.
For a long time, Russia was taken seriously becuase Russian threats had to be taken seriously. The rest of the world didn't taunt the bear, because the bear had sharp teeth and claws.
For all sorts of reasons, but mostly because the world economy has moved on a lot and Russia's hasn't, those teeth and claws aren't as significant any more. It's a lot more rational to shrug when Russia pouts; Russia can cause trouble but it's not the nation it was.
And to a fair degree, that's because its economy has been run into the ground by thieves. You need money to support power.
And that lack of money is largely because of the man who has been in charge for the last couple of decades. That realisation would certainly drive me potty.
Putin’s generals will make it quite clear, that he launches a nuclear weapon about an hour before downtown Moscow gets turned into glass.
If he still goes for it, and if everyone down the line of command goes for it, then that’s on them.
France has an independent mass murder system. The Yookay doesn’t.
As you say, being wrong can be feel very good.
Some of the weaponry the Russians have, that they haven't deployed to the front line is pretty terrifying stuff.
Russian army deploys its TOS-1 heavy flamethrower, capable of vaporizing human bodies, near Ukrainian border, footage shows
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-deploys-feared-tos-1-heavy-flamethrower-near-ukraine-cnn-2022-2?r=US&IR=T
I don't fancy a couple of dozen football hooligans armed with petrol bombs against that.
Religious fanatics are the only people who I'd worry might not be deterred.
The Naval Submarine Base in Georgia is just the US Trident submarines base. Even if we leased them off the Americans it is still the UK PM who would authorise their use.
The French do not have Trident nuclear weapons though unlike the UK and USA, so their nuclear weapons while still weapons of mass destruction are not as powerful as ours
any yes vote is going to be seen to be the fabricated lie that it is…
Even if he rains nuclear fire on London and all of the UK - we won't do anything and will merely accept it.
Personally, I don't think that would help.
The reason that it's of value as a deterrent is that it is a second strike system. Which means that we would use it if we were already attacked.
And we would therefore have nothing left to lose.
Game theory came into existence because of the implications of this. We don't threaten to use it unless they use theirs first. At which point, it's no longer the actions of a madman to use it. Because what would we have lost? We'd already have incurred the loss.
And they - their entire command chain down to the people who actually have to turn the keys - would know that the retaliatory strike would be coming if they went ahead.
It may not be sufficient to deter. But its absence would certainly not have any prospect of deterrence.
Moving on ...
He wins now or is dead. Literally not metaphorically.
For some years I felt we should negotiate away our deterrent but then Trump became POTUS and half the USA went insane and I changed my mind.
All the stuff about only a madman would use it, so it only helps a madman would be fine if, and only if, we could uninvent it. That is not on.
Best we can do: a few sane (sort of) countries have it, including France and UK. Because of that there is slightly less chance that a madman will use it because the people around him will tell him some of the truth and even refuse to obey orders.
I hope we would not use it in pure retaliation, but the Faustian pact of the nuclear deal requires that this is a secret your enemies are not quite sure of.
I think there is a non-trivial possibility that Putin will start thinking in terms of tactical nuclear weapons.
Americans don't elect traitors.
Top tip, when invading a foreign nation, and you run out of supplies, don't go to a police station to ask for fuel. Unless, say, you really don't want to be fighting in the war.
Macron and Boris might concern Putin, Sturgeon certainly never will. Hence it is so vital for Scotland it benefits from Trident in the UK
Humanity may survive in some pockets, but the outcome will be hundreds of years of anarchy, starvation and turmoil, the world over.
Glance at a globe, then plan a flightpath if you doubt it.
Most posters on PB know each other, in many cases personally but otherwise through reputation and thousands of posts. On the evidence of a handful of posts I should say you are a troll, and your views - if indeed they are yours - have attracted well-merited contempt.
You don't speak for anybody except yourself and whoever might be marking your card.
If we are going to World War 3 it should only be as Russia has invaded a NATO nation
Whoops.
Anything else is contemptible.
Except they've been preparing for it since King George and Attlee.
There's a reason a rational PRC hasn't even come close to invasion.
At some point it will happen. Maybe not next month or next decade or next century, but it is definitely coming.
Most likely homo sapiens fragmentary survivors are going to be those adept at hunting and gathering. Alaskan electoral reformers perhaps?
The French missiles have a bit less range and the accuracy is supposed to be a bit less as well.
At the same time clearly we would not be able to ignore it. I just don't know what we could do about it without starting a shooting war with Russia which, if he has already had the stupidity to nuke Kiev, can only really end one way.
Stanley: Well, at least we've solved the over population problem and saved some of the best DNA available.
Oh, and maybe you happen to know whether there's a duty psychiatrist "on" the Kremlin?
We are only obliged to defend NATO nations, Ukraine is not in NATO.
If there was not any prospect of Ukraine ever being in NATO Putin probably would not have invaded it in the first place.
We gave supplies to Ukraine before the war, we have imposed economic sanctions on Russia now Putin has invaded but we are not going to WW3 over it
@RALee85
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Today may have been the worst day for the Russian military in Ukraine so far. They are still advancing, but there were a # of videos of destroyed or abandoned equipment and units. I have no idea why they sent in a small spetsnaz unit into Kharkiv, but it was easily repelled.
There are even species of wasps that prey on other wasps, as I learned from a February 22nd article in the New York Times. The first wasp comes along and deposits its eggs in a plant, where the form a "gall". Then other wasps come along and lay their eggs in the developing wasp larvae. (These secondary parasites were thought to be a single species, Omyrus Labotus, but it turns out there are at least sixteen different species which look very much alike.)
Poor Carrie if The Oaf is the real father.
But then that's what to expect from drug taking Nazis.
“Imagine taking a deep breath then submerging yourself in water. Then imagine having all of the oxygen forced instantaneously from your body. Try to inhale again. But instead of cold water filling your lungs, toxic, flammable particles start killing you from the inside out,” he wrote.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-latest-putin-thermobaric-rockets-b2024255.html
Maybe "they" could head to Siberia, and maybe "they" might manage to avoid being tracked or their locations known (so that nuclear weapons would not be specifically targetted at them)
But "they" would also need to live through the firestorms triggered by all the explosions and for which so much flammable vegetation would be around.
And "they" would need to live on through the time when the fall-out blanketed much of the ground. And "they" could take refuge from the radioactive black rain.
And "they" would need to watch as the smoke rose from the burning cities into a multi-year nuclear winter. When the temperature dropped 5-20 degrees, further than during the last Ice Age (even if it is for a far shorter period). When crops did not grow. With global rainfall nearly halved and what rain there was falling mainly in the eastern Pacific (Nuclear Nino).
With all logistics chains no longer existing, no replacements for any damaged equipment.
With the ozone layer badly damaged, and, when the nuclear winter finally clears, ultraviolet spring beginning.
"They" would have a hell of a lot to manage to live through, even if they did dodge the nukes personally.
They'd be sacrificing a hell of a lot more than just Moscow.
Yes it would be an appalling act by Putin, yes we would have to cut Russia off economically, yes we could try Putin for war crimes if he was ever toppled. Yet no, we are not going to WW3 over it, only to defend our NATO allies
"I've been receiving messages from Chechen sources that after huge losses of Kadyrov's personal "army" (in particular: @ 70 of them were reported charred alive after a single Bayraktar strike), most of the rest returned across the border. Scenes like this corroborate such reports.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3TvMIIzdsw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IbPWwRAF-w"
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497941632209108992
First video (graphically) confirms that alongside the Chechens killed in the drone strike, many more were killed while dismounting.
I think the psychology of escalation is a real worry here.
Responding to acts of war is rational behaviour.
Refusing to respond because the aggressor wont like it is not.
Are you aware that there's something of a glaring logical flaw in your argument or did you somehow miss it?
The Ukranians are right to talk. Keep talking. The longer they last, the stronger the defenders become.
As for nukes, yes, Putin must be taken seriously but on no account should Ukraine's sovereignity be ceded. That would enable him to barge in anywhere with the threat of 'I'll nuke you if you resist'. If we're going to give way to that, we may as well invite him round to tea now.
They don't even seem to have agreed a consistent line at home, let alone abroad.