The fog of war – politicalbetting.com

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kle4 said:

PJohnson said:

Scott_xP said:

🇺🇦 President Zelensky announces talks with Russia:

(After speaking to 🇧🇾 leader Alexander Lukashenko)

“We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River” 1/2
https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1497930994611073024

A very good move the world needs peace...we need a good negotiated settlement fair to both sides and that recognises russias concerns

Very well - you said the concern was Ukraine wanting nuclear weapons. Ergo, the settlement is that Ukraine promises to never develop nuclear weapons, and Russia withdraws from the Donbas and Crimea. Why would they need to hold on to those if the concern was the nuclear thing?

Still very much like an answer to this one PJ - by your own expressed logic the concern justifying invasion does not require holding onto 1 inch of Ukrainian territory, so I expect you will now acknowledge Putin and Russia's concerns can be met whilst restoring Ukrainian control of those areas. Anything else would be rank hypocrisy - or you were lying when you said the concern was about nuclear weapons.

Three options, you choose.

You can look at this two ways .

It’s a trap by Russia to say we tried and Ukraine didn’t want to know then they go hell for leather .

It’s a sign of weakness from Putin that he’s bitten off more than he can chew and any sort of victory that can be sold back home will do.

Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.

Huge moment for Biden. Does he go to Defcon 3?

Or call his bluff and point out that Putin is losing this war and desperately scrabbling for influence.

Scott_xP said:

@benjaminwittes I definitely think talking is better than open conflict, but im having a hard time seeing what the Ukrainian negotiating position would be besides "get the fuck out of everywhere in Ukraine including Crimea."
https://twitter.com/GreeneyRJ/status/1497934072483618816

Certainly as starting point.

For anyone interested, donation link being shared on Ukrainian TV.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BackAndAlive
https://savelife.in.ua/

Grandma Lyda from Volyn is 97 years old. “I survived Hitler and the Germans, I was there when Donbas was restored. I will also survive Putin the Tiny, with his locusts. Glory to Ukraine!" https://twitter.com/ZarinaZabrisky/status/1497854420473708545/photo/1

rcs1000 said:

On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.

I am reminded of all the criticism Hague got over Libya, when actually he made all the right calls well ahead of time.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.

Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway

PJohnson said:

Problem is Ukraine wants nuclear weapons. That would give the west first strike capability on Moscow. ..it would be like russia putting nuclear weapons on Mexico.. Putin obviously doesn't want this

At the rate loony boy is going, he'll have all Russia's neighbours except Belarus clamouring to have as many weapons "on" them pointed towards Moscow as they can get.

Scott_xP said:

@benjaminwittes I definitely think talking is better than open conflict, but im having a hard time seeing what the Ukrainian negotiating position would be besides "get the fuck out of everywhere in Ukraine including Crimea."
https://twitter.com/GreeneyRJ/status/1497934072483618816

The line will be exactly that, I’d hope. But accepting talks not on Russian (or client State) soil fits in with the Ukrainian approach of being open and honest. I hope that Ukrainian delegation has good body guards though, and for gods sake don’t accept any tea.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.

I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

Ditto for many other NATO countries.

StuartDickson said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

Nuclear war it is, then

I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?

Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.

Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.

After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection.
The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.

I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

Ditto for many other NATO countries.

If there's no special forces there I'd be disappointed.

Eabhal said:

Huge moment for Biden. Does he go to Defcon 3?
.

No, I think.
Practically it doesn’t make a huge difference, and there’s no need to wind up the paranoiac in the Kremlin.

StuartDickson said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

Nuclear war it is, then

I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?

Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.

It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him

PJohnson said:

Sandpit said:

Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.

Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa

I think the ... Is.... The....

Tell.....

Zelenskyy and Lukashenka have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River,–Presidential Office informed at 15:30 EET.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497934920512987136

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.

Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway

It isn't policy differences beteen potential PMs we need to focus on, it's having a rational adult at the helm vs a narcissistic pig determined to cling to office at all lengths conceivable.

Putting it another way, we are being shown two versions of leadership, Putin's and Zelensky's, and we have the opportunity to put the question to ourselves: which does Pig Dog more closely resemble?

Neither Zelensky's fight to the death or Putin's threatening all his neighbours are the ideal leaderships at the moment

I don’t think they’ll be discussing surrender.

Ukrainian FM
@DmytroKuleba
right now: Putin's actions are like those of Hitler. Russia has not achieved a single one of its goals. They wanted a blitzkrieg but failed. "We are inflicting disastrous losses on the enemy." He lists devastating numbers of losses on the Russian side.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1497938404364931074

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

Nuclear war it is, then

I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?

Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.

It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him

Give it a break.

He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.

How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?

Sandpit said:

For anyone interested, donation link being shared on Ukrainian TV.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BackAndAlive
https://savelife.in.ua/

May as well send them a chunk because if Putin blows up the world then we won't be around to spend it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.

I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

Ditto for many other NATO countries.

When you see big convoys blown up it makes you wonder if a nice stranded businessman was perhaps providing some direction.

We saw it in Libya where strange white men were from time to time caught on camera directing "traffic".

I’ll never forget poor Billy Hague, sent to spend half an hour talking bollocks to the media about why the ‘rescue flight’ to Tripoli was still on the ground - as the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service were loading their bags onto the plane.

Ukraine also gave a breakdown of Russian kit destroyed:
- about 46 Russian warplanes downed
- 26 helicopters
- 146 tanks
- 706 armoured vehicles
- 49 cannons
- 1 surface to air BUK missile system
- 30 vehicles
- 2 drones
- 2 boats
It's not possible independently to verify data
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497939945914347525

I wonder if the Chinese are starting to regret getting in the crackhead uber.

biggles said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, I'm no Johnson fan, but he's had a pretty good Ukraine crisis so far.

Many decision (or mistakes) are also not clear at the time e.g. we have no real idea how much kit, training, intelligence info has been and are been provided.

I get the feeling that several thousand British weapons are not in Ukraine unaccompanied, no matter what the British government might wish to say on the subject.

Ditto for many other NATO countries.

I note that Ukraine asked for an international brigade and we said Brits could join. Perhaps they have had 200 new recruits from the Hereford area?

"SAS? Hell no! I'm a brickie from Dunstable and this here is Major Martin Forbes. He's an electrician from East Kilbride. Isn't that right, Sir?"

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

Nuclear war it is, then

I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?

Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.

It is in the sense that Putin knows if he launched a nuclear missile on the UK, Trident nuclear missiles would in turn be launched on Moscow and St Petersburg by UK submarines.

If he wanted to go on offensive across Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine into NATO nations it is also only the nuclear missiles held by the USA, UK and France as well as their armed forces that would make him think twice based on the NATO concept of mutual self defence.

If not he could invade most of Europe and make use of nuclear weapons too on nations that did not yield to him

Give it a break.

He's struggling to invade his nearest neighbour, after having them surrounded by three sides, with the rest of Europe formally at least not getting involved.

How they hell do you think he could invade "most of Europe"?

Russia has the biggest military in Europe, the biggest airforce in Europe, the most tanks in Europe and the biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.

He has just invaded Ukraine and is now in Kyiv, its capital.

Yet just a month ago you were saying Russia was no threat to a European nation like the UK at all and we should be more concerned about China which is on the other side of the world!

I was right, the way they're struggling v Ukraine proves that!

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Putin has just put the Russian nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'.

Partygate is obviously irrelevant now, indeed whether Sunak or Boris or Hunt or Truss or indeed Starmer is PM is relatively irrelevant too for the time being. As indeed is Covid post vaccination.

What matters is containing Putin and ensuring he does not go beyond Ukraine without doing anything to provoke him. Plus seeing if there is an internal coup to replace him

Unfitness for office because of inherent qualities and capabilities do not become irrelevant in a crisis, they become more relevant. Obviously MPs will disagree, but it will still come up later. Or should.

Whoever is UK PM is largely irrelevant at the moment now Corbyn is out of the picture.

What matters is the collective NATO response to Putin and whoever of Johnson, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Starmer is PM would largely do the same thing on that anyway

It isn't policy differences beteen potential PMs we need to focus on, it's having a rational adult at the helm vs a narcissistic pig determined to cling to office at all lengths conceivable.

Putting it another way, we are being shown two versions of leadership, Putin's and Zelensky's, and we have the opportunity to put the question to ourselves: which does Pig Dog more closely resemble?

Neither Zelensky's fight to the death or Putin's threatening all his neighbours are the ideal leaderships at the moment

What else do you think Zelensky should be doing?

Going back to having a laugh would be nice.....

PJohnson said:

Andy_Cooke said:

rcs1000 said:

PJohnson said:

rcs1000 said:

PJohnson said:

Chameleon said:

PJohnson said:

Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

I hope that they're at least paying you for this.

Chameleon said:

PJohnson said:

Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

I hope that they're at least paying you for this.

Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you

Hitch - and you - seem to be of the view that there are certain groups of people with special rights. That Russia has some God given right to interfere with its neighbours. It's none of Russia's business if the Ukraine joins the EU or NATO. They may not like it, but ultimately that's a decision for the countries of NATO and the people of the Ukraine. Russia doesn't get a say.

Problem is Ukraine wants nuclear weapons. That would give the west first strike capability on Moscow. ..it would be like russia putting nuclear weapons on Mexico.. Putin obviously doesn't want this

Really?

Could you perhaps point to a source for this claim.

Take your time.

But more importantly, now they've been invaded by Russia, I would say the case for giving them nuclear weapons was pretty good. Wouldn't you agree? Because if they had nuclear weapons, then Russia would not have invaded them.

Which is what you want, right?

Indeed.
According to @PJohnson 's claims, Putin has to be a total fool.

Because there was no risk of that before, and now there is a distinct risk of it.
This could end up with Ukraine in NATO, in the EU, and armed with nukes.

But, for some reason, PJohnson seems reluctant to say in public that Putin is a fool.
Or a warmonger. I'd take that.
A criminal. That'd do as well.

PJohnson - given that everyone thinks you're a Russian misinformation merchant, and that such a person could be liable to have to answer for saying in public that Putin is either a fool, a warmonger, or a criminal, why don't you just say it?

There is misinformation both sides...it helps to keep an open mind

Go on.

Say it.

StuartDickson said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

StuartDickson said:

TimS said:

StuartDickson said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

Nuclear war it is, then

I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?

Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.

Yes, let’s just uninvent nuclear weapons.

Are you an advocate of the kitchen table or the doorway?

I'm in favour of Trident.

Stop them nuking us, because we can nuke them.

You have more faith in Putin’s mental health than I do.

I have more faith in Trident than unilateral disarmament.

Ukraine unilaterally disarmed and look at them now.

@ragipsoylu
BREAKING — Turkey says what happens in Ukraine constitutes a war under Montreux Convention, says will act accordingly: Foreign Minister

Meaning, Turkey can close the straits for Russian warships except the ones associated with the Black Sea fleet

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497940835094171654

We are closing on the point of maximum danger. Russia faces a Ukrainian army that is being reinforced and re-equipped far quicker than they are. The armed forces of both Russia and Belarus are facing significant problems, and clearly Lukashenka is trying to save his own skin by being useful in trying to stop the escalation to a nuclear exchange that Putin is threatening.

Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.

No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.

PJohnson said:

Sandpit said:

Zelensky’s starting point is going to be a Russian withdrawal to the pre-2014 borders, giving up Donbass and Crimea.

Zelensky can’t negotiate away the international sanctions, that are about to tank the markets and cause bank runs in Moscow tomorrow morning.

Oh, and by the way, he has another few thousand NATO-spec anti-tank weapons, and a few hundred NATO-spec anti-aircraft weapons, ready for the next few thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft that try and get to Kiev.

Negotiations difficult now both sides all in...Ukraine will have to put their egos aside a bit and listen to russias concerns...and vice versa

The only concern in this is when will Putin be deposed and put on trial for war crimes

The growing crisis requires a mature, level headed adult to lead our country, whereas the Tories have lumbered us with a spoiled, entitled child.

Is it possible that Lukashenko might want to cut a deal?

BREAKING — Turkey says what happens in Ukraine constitutes a war under Montreux Convention, says will act accordingly: Foreign Minister

Meaning, Turkey can close the straits for Russian warships except the ones associated with the Black Sea fleet

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497940835094171654

BREAKING: Ukraine's foreign minister says the fact that Russia has agreed to a meeting without preconditions or ultimatums "is already a victory"
"We go there to listen to what Russia wants to say"
Ukraine will tell Russia what it thinks of its action, @DmytroKuleba says
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497942633922105350

Scott_xP said:

Germany has shown the way today with a bold (though belated) u-turn on defence and foreign policy. In Britain can we now have, tomorrow, a proper energy/security policy and a big expansion of the defence budget? Living in a different era now.

This will be difficult for the current Prime Minister and will involve difficult conversations with Mrs Johnson, his father and some of Boris's biggest supporters. So be it. This is not a David Attenborough doc. Energy supply will have to be secured, quickly.

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1497941840133296130

Also going to require a lot of the media pundits to do some serious rewriting of their positions. Boris continuously criticised for not even going anywhere near far enough on the eco-stuff.

Andy_Cooke said:

StuartDickson said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

Nuclear war it is, then

I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?

Trident is great when it’s being pointed at other people. Not so great when the nuclear warheads are being pointed at you.

Having Trident available - and known to be available to the other side - is actually quite a relief when nuclear weapons are pointed at you.

After all, it's not as though not having them is any protection.
The generals on the other side knowing that launching anything at you will sign their own death warrant is not ideal, but at least makes them think very hard before obeying.

I'm not sure I agree with this actually. Us having Trident doesn't make me feel safer in this situation and if the Russian equivalent were used on us I'd gain no comfort from the thought of the quid pro quo whether I lived to see it or not. Neither imo does it tilt the balance of power in our favour.

The nuclear deterrent - because of the consequences for both target and shooter - cannot be used by anybody other than a madman and every rational person knows this. It's therefore of value only *to* a madman.

Which begs the obvious question. Is Putin mad? And if he is, to what extent can he make decisions alone? Is his power personal and untrammeled or is it more (as with Trump when he was POTUS) that there are people around him who'd be willing and able to "manage" or in extremis neutralize him? This is what I really wish we knew.

Cicero said:

We are closing on the point of maximum danger. Russia faces a Ukrainian army that is being reinforced and re-equipped far quicker than they are. The armed forces of both Russia and Belarus are facing significant problems, and clearly Lukashenka is trying to save his own skin by being useful in trying to stop the escalation to a nuclear exchange that Putin is threatening.

Pausing the attack to initiate a "negotiation" might help the invading forces, but it is just as likely that the pause will help the Ukrainians deploy their new weapons and the Russian Stavka knows this. Gerasimov and Shoigu are meeting Putin now. Its going to be very tense. I think there are three choices: either they double down and maybe attack NATO directly and actually use nuclear weapons; or they try and cut a face saving deal; or Putin is removed.

No one is safe until this last happens. We are millimetres from the edge of catastrophe.

We are not near nuclear war yet. A reminder that even if Putin has a death wish launching a first strike nuclear attack requires a lot of people to tow the party line. That’s hard to do when the party line is essentially to destroy the world.

That’s not to say that there’s not some danger of full escalation but we are not on the edge of the precipice as things stand - though moving slightly (and uncomfortably) too close for comfort.

IanB2 said:

The growing crisis requires a mature, level headed adult to lead our country, whereas the Tories have lumbered us with a spoiled, entitled child.

Boris has acted perfectly maturely throughout this crisis, it is Putin's mental state that will determine where we go from here regardless of who is UK PM. Unless Putin is toppled by an internal coup of course