Starmer still has a 30%+ net approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

You are probably unaware of the historic enmity between the Russians and the Poles, or the Serbs and Croats.

Boeing are effectively putting a plane that is not airworthy into our skies.

No other commercial airliner has an inherent design fault where you need sensors and extra pilot training to stop it crashing.

ClippP said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Preferred PM is the most accurate figure and on that Starmer only leads Johnson by 3%. The same as the Labour voting intention lead

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497663508179083264?s=20&t=QQpxdql6skhkyPIL2AKUcQ

“Only” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Johnson’s supposed to be your election winning machine.

Sorry, young HY. Your Johnson is a loser. Please can you Tories do somthing about him. I have no desire to see Starmer win by a landslide.

In actual fact Boris still outperforms the Tory party.

Starmer only leads Boris as preferred PM by 3% but Labour lead the Tories by 4%

BlancheLivermore said:

Putin murdering Greeks now

Prime Minister GR
@PrimeministerGR
10 innocent civilians of Greek origin killed today by Russian air strikes close to Mariupol. Stop the bombing now!
https://twitter.com/PrimeministerGR/status/1497677174924529670

Some of them have been around that coast for about 2000 years. Not much longer, at this rate.

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

Jesus. I know you're a lefty and you love this mythology but Thatcher did not ask Biritish police to run over miners with tanks, or strafe their homes with jets, or napalm their children with flamtethrowers

Get a grip

Deep down you just love the anti-woke Putin, don't you?

Flatlander said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

A friend of mine was a mining engineer. He had to continue work or the pit would have become defunct.

He was attacked on his way to work and beaten up, and his bicycle thrown in the river. He also had to arm himself with an iron bar when the mob were attacking their own buildings and stand in an office corridor where "they could only come at me one at a time".

I don't think anyone should have been squeamish about beating the pickets up.

3 people died during the miners strike. None of them due to the police. 2 of the three were killed by miners (a concrete block dropped through a taxi window and a brick thrown by another miner) and one was crushed under a lorry on the picket line.

HYUFD said:

Fairliered said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed

That would mean a lot of by-elections. Oh, wait, you meant the Russians?

Probably, though Boris had said his favourite film is the Godfather

I haven't heard from Phillip Hammond recently...

Chameleon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.

On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.

Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.

IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

Jesus. I know you're a lefty and you love this mythology but Thatcher did not ask Biritish police to run over miners with tanks, or strafe their homes with jets, or napalm their children with flamtethrowers

Get a grip

Just in case you're talking about it, the tank that ran over the car was Ukrainian and wasn't a tank

state_go_away said:

Chameleon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.

On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.

Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.

IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?

Yes to some extent, but it’s the losses of equipment and fighters that are making the news. This isn’t just a case of being bogged down. And if there are logistical problems already those will surely only get worse.

Oh fuck..

@IAPonomarenko
·
4m
EXTREMELY HEAVY RUSSIAN AIR RAID EXPECTED IN KYIV WITHIN MINUTES
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497681804983164938

warning in #Kyiv that attacks about to intensify...
https://twitter.com/bbclysedoucet/status/1497682475249811476

From the defence reporter from Kyiv Independent: https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1497681804983164938

state_go_away said:

Chameleon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.

On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.

Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.

IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?

Yes I think that is a risk. But whatever now happens I think Putin badly miscalculated this. He has given the Ukrainians something to fight for and the time to get used to the idea. As I said to the Sovbot earlier, he may achieve his short term objectives - and I sadly think he will - but the medium to long tern he is screwed and the Russians will be leaving Ukraine as the losers.

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

I did a project for the army, part of which was to automate reporting of the status of battlefield equipment, eg tanks, armoured personnel carriers etc up the chain of command. They wouldn't accept automatic reporting because it gave the wrong impression. They wanted the ability to manually report things, for example as working when not yet ready, but could be made ready at short notice if anyone from brigade was going to visit... Perhaps things have changed (it was a long time ago), perhaps all militaries have the same wish not to report unpleasant facts?

TimS said:

state_go_away said:

Chameleon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.

On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.

Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.

IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?

Yes to some extent, but it’s the losses of equipment and fighters that are making the news. This isn’t just a case of being bogged down. And if there are logistical problems already those will surely only get worse.

but i am sure if there was social media in 1944 the Germans could point to a lot of footage about downed planes and blown up allied tanks regards D -Day as well. And that woudl have been an illusion . We have to discount a lot of seemingly good news on the basis of the abilty for any single small success to be blown up to be more than it is

Scott_xP said:

In 30-60 mins #Kyiv will be under attack never seen before.#Russia will hit us with all they have. Main Bessarabka market is a target. All parliamentary chats are exploding
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1497677986136576002

Are they going to try and starve the population?

Gallowgate said:

Can we presume that NATO is feeding Ukraine command intelligence on an hourly basis? Perhaps even tactical advice?

Something that is interesting is clearly just how leaky Russia is. The US / UK clearly know about the plans well ahead of the invasion. They told the Chinese this and of course Chinese sold them out and went running to Vlad.

Paranoid Putin must be even more paranoid that the west clearly have the inside track.

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
Magomed Tushayev, one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s top warlords, has been killed in action in Hostomel.
🇺🇦Ukraine’s elite Alpha Group is reportedly fighting Chechens in the airfield.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497657772980244483

On the refugee issue, it requires more thought than just the reflexive 'take people in on compassionate grounds'. People are fleeing a warzone, which is understandable, but in such circumstances they need basic temporary accommodation, not long term resettlement through the asylum system.

I would advocate aid to provide such basic accommodation in safe countries adjacent to the border. Where people are sponsored by a citizen or long term resident, they should be allowed to come to Britain until it is deemed safe to return to Ukraine.

But this is really a distraction, as the people who we really need to support are those who have remained in Ukraine and are actually fighting the Russians. And it is they who will ultimately be in the greatest long term danger, and they who may ultimately need asylum in the event of a Russian victory.

Fishing said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

There may not be that much time to spare.

Oh for a successful Russian Stauffenberg ...

"Es lebe das heilige Russland!"

BlancheLivermore said:

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
Magomed Tushayev, one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s top warlords, has been killed in action in Hostomel.
🇺🇦Ukraine’s elite Alpha Group is reportedly fighting Chechens in the airfield.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497657772980244483

Its quite a turn around that Chechens fighting for Russia rather than against them.

ThomasNashe said:

Must have been a busy day for Corbyn, what with all these Stop the War demonstrations around the place?

He has spent the day banging on about the NHS not being paid enough.....15% pay rise demanded.

Maybe he will pop up on Russia Today later on.

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
EXTREMELY HEAVY RUSSIAN AIR RAID EXPECTED IN KYIV WITHIN MINUTES
9:15 PM · Feb 26, 2022 from Ukraine·

https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/1497687083594440713

Paratroopers over Kyiv

BlancheLivermore said:

IshmaelZ said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
Magomed Tushayev, one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s top warlords, has been killed in action in Hostomel.
🇺🇦Ukraine’s elite Alpha Group is reportedly fighting Chechens in the airfield.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497657772980244483

Some context would be utterly fucking fantastic here. I mean REALLY fantastic.

Russia has invaded Ukraine.

10,000 Chechens are reported to have gone to Ukraine to fight for Russia.

This is a picture of the Chechen leader Kadyrov, with one of his top Warlords Tushayev.

Tushayev has been killed in fighting in one of Kyiv's airports.

Enough?

Also..

Bojan Pancevski
@bopanc
Chechen forces also fought in the invasion on Donbas in 2014; extremely brutal and inhumane: they tortured, mutilated and raped people
https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1497685817413808139

Leon said:

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
EXTREMELY HEAVY RUSSIAN AIR RAID EXPECTED IN KYIV WITHIN MINUTES
9:15 PM · Feb 26, 2022 from Ukraine·

God help Kyiv.

darkage said:

On the refugee issue, it requires more thought than just the reflexive 'take people in on compassionate grounds'. People are fleeing a warzone, which is understandable, but in such circumstances they need basic temporary accommodation, not long term resettlement through the asylum system.

I would advocate aid to provide such basic accommodation in safe countries adjacent to the border. Where people are sponsored by a citizen or long term resident, they should be allowed to come to Britain until it is deemed safe to return to Ukraine.

But this is really a distraction, as the people who we really need to support are those who have remained in Ukraine and are actually fighting the Russians. And it is they who will ultimately be in the greatest long term danger, and they who may ultimately need asylum in the event of a Russian victory.

Putting people in a holding pattern for a short stay is one thing, but if this conflict drags on for any length of time then we may well see the millions of refugees that the UN has predicted, followed by a lengthy Russian occupation of Ukraine. That will mean that people will have to be parcelled out throughout the West and resettled.

The fleeing Ukrainians can be put up in hotels, sports halls and tent encampments for weeks, not years - and the border states can't be expected to shoulder all the burden.

This appears very much to be a government minister suggesting that refugees fleeing a warzone should apply for a seasonal worker programme. https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1497688909983064067/photo/1

🇬🇧🇺🇦 PM tonight with plane stuffed full of “military support” heading out to our comrades in Ukraine - PA



https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1497687061582778370

Overflying Germany.....

JUST IN: #Russian state TV channels have been hacked by #Anonymous to broadcast the truth about what happens in #Ukraine.

#OpRussia #OpKremlin #FckPutin #StandWithUkriane https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1497678663046905863/video/1

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/1497687083594440713

Paratroopers over Kyiv

Surely the first rule of a paradrop is surprise? Have the Russians leaked this as well?

The surprise is presumably that they've landed in Kyiv rather than the Kyiv Reservoir.

Russians are conducting airdrops southwest of Kyiv https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497688481958699011/photo/1

New line from the Tories: Ukrainian refugees can apply for DEFRA seasonal worker visas. I kid you not.
https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1497686802798465024

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

This appears very much to be a government minister suggesting that refugees fleeing a warzone should apply for a seasonal worker programme. https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1497688909983064067/photo/1

Boris live just now has said he is aware of fake news on the Internet on refugees and the UK will be welcoming them into the country

Ah well, if Boris said it, it must be true.

That's why the Lufthansa flights turned back:

NEW: Germany closing its airspace to all Russian planes

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1497687075595952129

That's Aeroflot seriously banjaxed.....

TimS said:

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

DougSeal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.

Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.

No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.

There’s actually something a bit Galtieri about the whole military adventure at the moment.

Trying to step back and actually think about events - the thing I could see Starmer doing differently was the decision to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

This appears very much to be a government minister suggesting that refugees fleeing a warzone should apply for a seasonal worker programme. https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1497688909983064067/photo/1

Boris live just now has said he is aware of fake news on the Internet on refugees and the UK will be welcoming them into the country

Ah well, if Boris said it, it must be true.

He certainly did say it and no doubt on Monday the matter will be clarified in the HOC

I imagine the scenes in Berlin when the German government realised that Putin hadn't won as quickly as they wanted were worthy of a Downfall parody.

[Translated]:

Lufthansa is stopping its Russia flights because of the Ukraine war !

A company spokesman told BILD: “Lufthansa will no longer use Russian airspace for the next seven days due to the current and emerging regulatory situation. Flights to Russia will be suspended during this period.”

Two planes turned back in the air because of the short notice! "Flights that are in Russian airspace will leave it again shortly," said the airline spokesman.

According to data from the Flightradar24 tracking website, a Lufthansa Airbus A340 en route from Frankfurt to Tokyo via Estonia turned around, while a company Airbus A350 from Munich to Seoul via Russia changed course and flew west again.

The Tokyo flight was listed as "diverted" on the Lufthansa website and landed back in Frankfurt around 10 p.m. The machine, which was on its way to Seoul, was supposed to land in Munich shortly before midnight. According to "Flightradar24", a Boeing 777 from the German freight company Aerologic also turned back via Russia, which was supposed to fly from Leipzig to Tokyo.

The Lufthansa Group is monitoring the situation closely and is in close contact with the national and international authorities, it said. "The safety of our passengers and crew is our top priority at all times."

Germany in turn wants to close its own airspace for Russian aircraft. Transport Minister Volker Wissing (51, FDP) supports the closure and has ordered everything to be prepared for it, his ministry announced on Saturday evening.

https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/wirtschaft/ukraine-krieg-lufthansa-stellt-russland-fluege-ein-79288168.bild.html###wt_ref=https://t.co/&wt_t=1645912318374

Perhaps Johnson really is a bit Churchillian. After the war is over, we chuck him out as fast as we ever can.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Scott_xP said:

Russians are conducting airdrops southwest of Kyiv https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497688481958699011/photo/1

I know Zelenskyy is prepared to be martyred for the cause, but wouldn't it make more sense to draw Russian fire to Kyiv, while being safe elsewhere? Perhaps he is. Then the Ukrainians can mop up ground forces without the threat of Ukraine being without its influential figurehead.

I have no doubt that from dusk to dawn he is hidden in some nondescript compound tat would require the Russians door to door searching half the city to discover.

TimS said:

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

DougSeal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.

Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.

No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.

There’s actually something a bit Galtieri about the whole military adventure at the moment.

There’s quite a significant parallel with the Falklands. Both that war and this happened four years after the perpetrators hosted the football World Cup.

Deleted

It is going to be extremely depressing if the discussion about Ukraine moves on to the usual left/right arguments over refugees. The story should be the heroic resistance, of the people who have stayed.

It’s hard — perhaps impossible? — to think of a less strategic/military target than a hospital for kids with cancer.

But the one in Kyiv was just hit. At least one child was killed.

https://twitter.com/_EmmaGH/status/1497677005575307270

IanB2 said:

state_go_away said:

Barnesian said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

The material is reworked, effects from Instagram have been added, and his statements are cut off old statements that someone pasted on and that do not even match the movement of the mouth. Original video with Kadyrov, from which the frame and his lips are taken here:
https://youtu.be/rwyfOOTJNpE?t=4

yes a deep fake

Is that the third or fourth fake posted here just today? It would be nice if people waited to see if things are genuine before doing the cut ‘n paste

In fairness, it's hard for the lay person to tell if they're fake - which is the whole idea of course.

Despite all the positive reports of Ukrainian resistance and Russian ineptitude, I am steeling myself for the prospect that Ukraine falls within the next week.

I do so much hope I am wrong.