I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.
You are probably unaware of the historic enmity between the Russians and the Poles, or the Serbs and Croats.
Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself
So kill him, and the problem goes away
This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.
The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.
Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.
How many Russians between Putin and the button/key? I’m not certain his orders would be obeyed.
A story I heard from someone who probably knew what he was talking about (but still an anecdote) is that the Soviet nuclear threat was not as bad as the West thought even at the height of the cold war. The reason was that the land based rockets were fuelled with hydrogen-peroxide and... alcohol. The bored soldiers on duty at the silos had drunk most of the alcohol so any missile launch would not have gone far.
Yes the more Ukraine resists the worse and more bloody it will be for them. Do the ukrainian people really want this
The Ukrainian people do not want any of this but they are not going to just roll over and now they are receiving modern NATO weapons from 27 countries they are more than likely to put Putin to the sword
Boeing are effectively putting a plane that is not airworthy into our skies.
No other commercial airliner has an inherent design fault where you need sensors and extra pilot training to stop it crashing.
I am no fan of Boeing and they deserve to be severely censured for the 737 Max debacle but no modern plane can fly without "sensors and extra pilot training".
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.
Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?
Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it
This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens
The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.
Jesus. I know you're a lefty and you love this mythology but Thatcher did not ask Biritish police to run over miners with tanks, or strafe their homes with jets, or napalm their children with flamtethrowers
Get a grip
Deep down you just love the anti-woke Putin, don't you?
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko What I can say is that 🇺🇦Ukraine’s military have been demonstrating outstanding anti-tank effectiveness. I’m just losing count of Russian armor convoys slaughtered every several hours across the country. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497670726891020294
I have a feeling this war may do for the Main Battle Tank what WWII did for the Battleship.
Does seem like a good outing got NLAW and Javelin, certainly, but it is a defensive war.
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.
Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?
Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it
This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens
The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.
A friend of mine was a mining engineer. He had to continue work or the pit would have become defunct.
He was attacked on his way to work and beaten up, and his bicycle thrown in the river. He also had to arm himself with an iron bar when the mob were attacking their own buildings and stand in an office corridor where "they could only come at me one at a time".
I don't think anyone should have been squeamish about beating the pickets up.
3 people died during the miners strike. None of them due to the police. 2 of the three were killed by miners (a concrete block dropped through a taxi window and a brick thrown by another miner) and one was crushed under a lorry on the picket line.
Reports: the UN Security Council votes tomorrow on calling an emergency session of the General Assembly over Ukraine.
The vote is procedural so veto power doesn't apply. Nine votes are needed, and it is therefore thought likely to pass. The General Assembly would then meet on Monday.
The General Assembly has no power to pass a binding resolution, but one imagines that a vote to censure Russia is bound to pass, and the way it breaks will offer a good indication as to how many friends Putin has left.
Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself
So kill him, and the problem goes away
Yes. He needs to go now.
Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.
Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed
That would mean a lot of by-elections. Oh, wait, you meant the Russians?
Probably, though Boris had said his favourite film is the Godfather
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.
On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.
Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.
IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?
I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.
Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.
No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.
There’s actually something a bit Galtieri about the whole military adventure at the moment.
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.
Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?
Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it
This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens
The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.
Jesus. I know you're a lefty and you love this mythology but Thatcher did not ask Biritish police to run over miners with tanks, or strafe their homes with jets, or napalm their children with flamtethrowers
Get a grip
Just in case you're talking about it, the tank that ran over the car was Ukrainian and wasn't a tank
Apparently now the convoys that bypassed Sumi and Karkhiv to dash towards Kiev have... run out of fuel. No verification for the claim yet beyond a new video of villagers in the dark burning abandoned APCs that clearly weren't disabled by combat.
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.
On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.
Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.
IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?
Yes to some extent, but it’s the losses of equipment and fighters that are making the news. This isn’t just a case of being bogged down. And if there are logistical problems already those will surely only get worse.
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.
Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?
Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it
This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens
The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.
Jesus. I know you're a lefty and you love this mythology but Thatcher did not ask Biritish police to run over miners with tanks, or strafe their homes with jets, or napalm their children with flamtethrowers
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.
Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?
Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it
This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens
The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.
Jesus. I know you're a lefty and you love this mythology but Thatcher did not ask Biritish police to run over miners with tanks, or strafe their homes with jets, or napalm their children with flamtethrowers
Get a grip
Coincidentally what your green-inked letter sent to the blessed Thatch at the time said:
You need to run over the miners with tanks, strafe their homes with jets and napalm their children with flamtethrowers
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.
On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.
Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.
IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?
Yes I think that is a risk. But whatever now happens I think Putin badly miscalculated this. He has given the Ukrainians something to fight for and the time to get used to the idea. As I said to the Sovbot earlier, he may achieve his short term objectives - and I sadly think he will - but the medium to long tern he is screwed and the Russians will be leaving Ukraine as the losers.
Yes the more Ukraine resists the worse and more bloody it will be for them. Do the ukrainian people really want this
The Ukrainian people do not want any of this but they are not going to just roll over and now they are receiving modern NATO weapons from 27 countries they are more than likely to put Putin to the sword
More than likely is a bold call. Drag it out for far longer than was expected, yes. I don't see Ukrainian troops in Russia soon.
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.
It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.
*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.
I did a project for the army, part of which was to automate reporting of the status of battlefield equipment, eg tanks, armoured personnel carriers etc up the chain of command. They wouldn't accept automatic reporting because it gave the wrong impression. They wanted the ability to manually report things, for example as working when not yet ready, but could be made ready at short notice if anyone from brigade was going to visit... Perhaps things have changed (it was a long time ago), perhaps all militaries have the same wish not to report unpleasant facts?
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.
On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.
Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.
IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?
Outside the VDV it definitely seems like lots of Russian forces deployed are lower quality in both skills and equipment compared to expectations.
However even if it is a feint, a lot of actions, such as the non-existant supply chains and lack of air domination still would make no sense.
I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:
Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in. Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled. The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea. Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.
Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.
It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?
I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.
Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.
On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.
Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.
IS the apparent failure of Russian nilitary plans possibly an illusion .We have 24 hour news now so each hour seems an eternity at times like this. I cannot remember exactly how long it took the yanks to capture Baghdad but in was in weeks not days and everybody thought it swift at the time. Was the difference just a lack of social media where things need to happen by the hour to maintain interest?
Yes to some extent, but it’s the losses of equipment and fighters that are making the news. This isn’t just a case of being bogged down. And if there are logistical problems already those will surely only get worse.
but i am sure if there was social media in 1944 the Germans could point to a lot of footage about downed planes and blown up allied tanks regards D -Day as well. And that woudl have been an illusion . We have to discount a lot of seemingly good news on the basis of the abilty for any single small success to be blown up to be more than it is
Can we presume that NATO is feeding Ukraine command intelligence on an hourly basis? Perhaps even tactical advice?
Something that is interesting is clearly just how leaky Russia is. The US / UK clearly know about the plans well ahead of the invasion. They told the Chinese this and of course Chinese sold them out and went running to Vlad.
Paranoid Putin must be even more paranoid that the west clearly have the inside track.
A few days ago British intelligence leaked a remarkably explicit plan around Russia planning a decapitation air raid in Kyiv. I wonder if after a couple days of probing, they are confident enough in their knowledge of the air defences to press the trigger?
On the refugee issue, it requires more thought than just the reflexive 'take people in on compassionate grounds'. People are fleeing a warzone, which is understandable, but in such circumstances they need basic temporary accommodation, not long term resettlement through the asylum system.
I would advocate aid to provide such basic accommodation in safe countries adjacent to the border. Where people are sponsored by a citizen or long term resident, they should be allowed to come to Britain until it is deemed safe to return to Ukraine.
But this is really a distraction, as the people who we really need to support are those who have remained in Ukraine and are actually fighting the Russians. And it is they who will ultimately be in the greatest long term danger, and they who may ultimately need asylum in the event of a Russian victory.
Boeing are effectively putting a plane that is not airworthy into our skies.
No other commercial airliner has an inherent design fault where you need sensors and extra pilot training to stop it crashing.
I am no fan of Boeing and they deserve to be severely censured for the 737 Max debacle but no modern plane can fly without "sensors and extra pilot training".
This is the question though . You’re adding these extra sensors onto the plane which are not needed on others.
The 737 Max has a design fault because they’ve moved the engines which unbalances the plane . Is there another passenger airliner which was designed to be unbalanced so effectively you need extra sensors to stop it crashing .
I will never fly on that plane and would refuse to board if I got to the airport and my flight had seen a change of plane to the 737 Max .
Some airlines might try and hoodwink passengers with changing the serial numbers but the 737 Max is easily identifiable and you can find the alternate serial numbers online .
Its quite a turn around that Chechens fighting for Russia rather than against them.
The word 'cucked' is silly and ridiculous 99% of the time it's used. However in this case it is justified. There is nothing more cucked than seeing a brutal warlord invade you, turn your capital into a brutal hellhole of indiscriminate civilian murder and shelling, razing it to the ground in the process, killing your fathers, uncles, and neighbours. Only two decades later to turn around and be that same dictator's most loyal and feared soldiers.
I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.
Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.
No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.
It is far too early to talk of a bounce but the next few weeks may provide a clearer picture
That's rather a poor analogy. Thatcher was involved in the war. Johnson has no involvement whatsoever
On the refugee issue, it requires more thought than just the reflexive 'take people in on compassionate grounds'. People are fleeing a warzone, which is understandable, but in such circumstances they need basic temporary accommodation, not long term resettlement through the asylum system.
I would advocate aid to provide such basic accommodation in safe countries adjacent to the border. Where people are sponsored by a citizen or long term resident, they should be allowed to come to Britain until it is deemed safe to return to Ukraine.
But this is really a distraction, as the people who we really need to support are those who have remained in Ukraine and are actually fighting the Russians. And it is they who will ultimately be in the greatest long term danger, and they who may ultimately need asylum in the event of a Russian victory.
Putting people in a holding pattern for a short stay is one thing, but if this conflict drags on for any length of time then we may well see the millions of refugees that the UN has predicted, followed by a lengthy Russian occupation of Ukraine. That will mean that people will have to be parcelled out throughout the West and resettled.
The fleeing Ukrainians can be put up in hotels, sports halls and tent encampments for weeks, not years - and the border states can't be expected to shoulder all the burden.
Its quite a turn around that Chechens fighting for Russia rather than against them.
The word 'cucked' is silly and ridiculous 99% of the time it's used. However in this case it is justified. There is nothing more cucked than seeing a brutal warlord invade you, turn your capital into a brutal hellhole of indiscriminate civilian murder and shelling, razing it to the ground in the process, killing your fathers, uncles, and neighbours. Only two decades later to turn around and be that same dictator's most loyal and feared soldiers.
Sikhs fought against the Brits in the 1830s, losing their independence in the process. Then siding with the the Brits when the rest of the Subcontinent had their Mutiny in the 1850s.
I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.
Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.
No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.
It is far too early to talk of a bounce but the next few weeks may provide a clearer picture
That's rather a poor analogy. Thatcher was involved in the war. Johnson has no involvement whatsoever
Some context would be utterly fucking fantastic here. I mean REALLY fantastic.
Russia has invaded Ukraine.
10,000 Chechens are reported to have gone to Ukraine to fight for Russia.
This is a picture of the Chechen leader Kadyrov, with one of his top Warlords Tushayev.
Tushayev has been killed in fighting in one of Kyiv's airports.
Enough?
If Tushayev is really dead then Kadyrev will have to watch his own back. Something I have occasionally thought is the day after Kadyrev is gone, so will Putin be. If the Ukrainians can ride the storm a few more days then maybe Putin is really toast.
BTW the tweets from General Riho Terras, former Estonian CDS are important. He was born in Narva and has close personal relationships with the Russian Stavka. If he is right then the Russian deep state is in panic and things really have gone badly for Russia in these last few days.
I know Zelenskyy is prepared to be martyred for the cause, but wouldn't it make more sense to draw Russian fire to Kyiv, while being safe elsewhere? Perhaps he is. Then the Ukrainians can mop up ground forces without the threat of Ukraine being without its influential figurehead.
I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.
Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.
No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.
There’s actually something a bit Galtieri about the whole military adventure at the moment.
Trying to step back and actually think about events - the thing I could see Starmer doing differently was the decision to supply weapons to Ukraine.
Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.
Yes it is excellent. Damning on Boeing's corporate culture and the corrosive influence of C-suite greed and the tyranny of the quarterly reporting cycle. Incredible how someone can preside over it all and leave with an eight figure golden parachute.
I don't have Netflix, but I can imagine there's lots of material. Boeing have really, really mucked up several high-profile projects and products. Their reputation has gone down the toilet.
It is sad because as the film makes clear they used to have a well deserved reputation for engineering excellence. When you see the sheer complexity of these machines, the miles of wiring inside each one, my main feeling was that it's a miracle they don't crash more often. They are phenomenally reliable, mostly. But the company's failures over the Max project are absolutely jaw-dropping.
The clarity of the documents they finally managed to get the company to release is staggering. One essentially said that until the software was fixed, there’d be another fatal accident on average once every two years. Knowing this, they set about the months of work it would take to sort and get approval for the revised software, gambling that the ‘once in two years’ wouldn’t come up before they’d finished.
Perhaps they could get a message out to those citizens defending Kyiv with a recently distributed kalashnikov: ‘you don’t need to be doing this, if you’ve got a HGV licence’.
Lufthansa is stopping its Russia flights because of the Ukraine war !
A company spokesman told BILD: “Lufthansa will no longer use Russian airspace for the next seven days due to the current and emerging regulatory situation. Flights to Russia will be suspended during this period.”
Two planes turned back in the air because of the short notice! "Flights that are in Russian airspace will leave it again shortly," said the airline spokesman.
According to data from the Flightradar24 tracking website, a Lufthansa Airbus A340 en route from Frankfurt to Tokyo via Estonia turned around, while a company Airbus A350 from Munich to Seoul via Russia changed course and flew west again.
The Tokyo flight was listed as "diverted" on the Lufthansa website and landed back in Frankfurt around 10 p.m. The machine, which was on its way to Seoul, was supposed to land in Munich shortly before midnight. According to "Flightradar24", a Boeing 777 from the German freight company Aerologic also turned back via Russia, which was supposed to fly from Leipzig to Tokyo.
The Lufthansa Group is monitoring the situation closely and is in close contact with the national and international authorities, it said. "The safety of our passengers and crew is our top priority at all times."
Germany in turn wants to close its own airspace for Russian aircraft. Transport Minister Volker Wissing (51, FDP) supports the closure and has ordered everything to be prepared for it, his ministry announced on Saturday evening.
The material is reworked, effects from Instagram have been added, and his statements are cut off old statements that someone pasted on and that do not even match the movement of the mouth. Original video with Kadyrov, from which the frame and his lips are taken here: https://youtu.be/rwyfOOTJNpE?t=4
yes a deep fake
Is that the third or fourth fake posted here just today? It would be nice if people waited to see if things are genuine before doing the cut ‘n paste
I know Zelenskyy is prepared to be martyred for the cause, but wouldn't it make more sense to draw Russian fire to Kyiv, while being safe elsewhere? Perhaps he is. Then the Ukrainians can mop up ground forces without the threat of Ukraine being without its influential figurehead.
I have no doubt that from dusk to dawn he is hidden in some nondescript compound tat would require the Russians door to door searching half the city to discover.
I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.
Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.
No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.
There’s actually something a bit Galtieri about the whole military adventure at the moment.
There’s quite a significant parallel with the Falklands. Both that war and this happened four years after the perpetrators hosted the football World Cup.
It is going to be extremely depressing if the discussion about Ukraine moves on to the usual left/right arguments over refugees. The story should be the heroic resistance, of the people who have stayed.
The material is reworked, effects from Instagram have been added, and his statements are cut off old statements that someone pasted on and that do not even match the movement of the mouth. Original video with Kadyrov, from which the frame and his lips are taken here: https://youtu.be/rwyfOOTJNpE?t=4
yes a deep fake
Is that the third or fourth fake posted here just today? It would be nice if people waited to see if things are genuine before doing the cut ‘n paste
In fairness, it's hard for the lay person to tell if they're fake - which is the whole idea of course.
Despite all the positive reports of Ukrainian resistance and Russian ineptitude, I am steeling myself for the prospect that Ukraine falls within the next week.
Comments
No other commercial airliner has an inherent design fault where you need sensors and extra pilot training to stop it crashing.
Starmer only leads Boris as preferred PM by 3% but Labour lead the Tories by 4%
The vote is procedural so veto power doesn't apply. Nine votes are needed, and it is therefore thought likely to pass. The General Assembly would then meet on Monday.
The General Assembly has no power to pass a binding resolution, but one imagines that a vote to censure Russia is bound to pass, and the way it breaks will offer a good indication as to how many friends Putin has left.
@IAPonomarenko
·
4m
EXTREMELY HEAVY RUSSIAN AIR RAID EXPECTED IN KYIV WITHIN MINUTES
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497681804983164938
You need to run over the miners with tanks, strafe their homes with jets and napalm their children with flamtethrowers
https://twitter.com/bbclysedoucet/status/1497682475249811476
We are the Borg. Lower your weapons and surrunder...we will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile.
Drag it out for far longer than was expected, yes.
I don't see Ukrainian troops in Russia soon.
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1497677986136576002
However even if it is a feint, a lot of actions, such as the non-existant supply chains and lack of air domination still would make no sense.
Paranoid Putin must be even more paranoid that the west clearly have the inside track.
@IAPonomarenko
Magomed Tushayev, one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s top warlords, has been killed in action in Hostomel.
🇺🇦Ukraine’s elite Alpha Group is reportedly fighting Chechens in the airfield.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497657772980244483
I would advocate aid to provide such basic accommodation in safe countries adjacent to the border. Where people are sponsored by a citizen or long term resident, they should be allowed to come to Britain until it is deemed safe to return to Ukraine.
But this is really a distraction, as the people who we really need to support are those who have remained in Ukraine and are actually fighting the Russians. And it is they who will ultimately be in the greatest long term danger, and they who may ultimately need asylum in the event of a Russian victory.
This is Putin's Go To Modus, when things don't quite work
Just obliterate everything. Like in Grozny. Except this time it will be a European democratic nation in full view of international and social media
The 737 Max has a design fault because they’ve moved the engines which unbalances the plane . Is there another passenger airliner which was designed to be unbalanced so effectively you need extra sensors to stop it crashing .
I will never fly on that plane and would refuse to board if I got to the airport and my flight had seen a change of plane to the 737 Max .
Some airlines might try and hoodwink passengers with changing the serial numbers but the 737 Max is easily identifiable and you can find the alternate serial numbers online .
Maybe he will pop up on Russia Today later on.
10,000 Chechens are reported to have gone to Ukraine to fight for Russia.
This is a picture of the Chechen leader Kadyrov, with one of his top Warlords Tushayev.
Tushayev has been killed in fighting in one of Kyiv's airports.
Enough?
@IAPonomarenko
EXTREMELY HEAVY RUSSIAN AIR RAID EXPECTED IN KYIV WITHIN MINUTES
9:15 PM · Feb 26, 2022 from Ukraine·
Paratroopers over Kyiv
Bojan Pancevski
@bopanc
Chechen forces also fought in the invasion on Donbas in 2014; extremely brutal and inhumane: they tortured, mutilated and raped people
https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1497685817413808139
Amazingly, no flak jacket...
https://mobile.twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1497458194951647236
The fleeing Ukrainians can be put up in hotels, sports halls and tent encampments for weeks, not years - and the border states can't be expected to shoulder all the burden.
'A large vehicle that visits countries to show how much we like them. It can fire shots as a friendly way of saying 'hello.''
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1497687061582778370
Overflying Germany.....
#OpRussia #OpKremlin #FckPutin #StandWithUkriane https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1497678663046905863/video/1
BTW the tweets from General Riho Terras, former Estonian CDS are important. He was born in Narva and has close personal relationships with the Russian Stavka. If he is right then the Russian deep state is in panic and things really have gone badly for Russia in these last few days.
https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1497686802798465024
McFarlane looked like he belonged in a pub car park brawl rather than prime time Saturday night - very obese, kilt, flat cap and green hair:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgQCHSalw8g
NEW: Germany closing its airspace to all Russian planes
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1497687075595952129
That's Aeroflot seriously banjaxed.....
Lufthansa is stopping its Russia flights because of the Ukraine war !
A company spokesman told BILD: “Lufthansa will no longer use Russian airspace for the next seven days due to the current and emerging regulatory situation. Flights to Russia will be suspended during this period.”
Two planes turned back in the air because of the short notice! "Flights that are in Russian airspace will leave it again shortly," said the airline spokesman.
According to data from the Flightradar24 tracking website, a Lufthansa Airbus A340 en route from Frankfurt to Tokyo via Estonia turned around, while a company Airbus A350 from Munich to Seoul via Russia changed course and flew west again.
The Tokyo flight was listed as "diverted" on the Lufthansa website and landed back in Frankfurt around 10 p.m. The machine, which was on its way to Seoul, was supposed to land in Munich shortly before midnight. According to "Flightradar24", a Boeing 777 from the German freight company Aerologic also turned back via Russia, which was supposed to fly from Leipzig to Tokyo.
The Lufthansa Group is monitoring the situation closely and is in close contact with the national and international authorities, it said. "The safety of our passengers and crew is our top priority at all times."
Germany in turn wants to close its own airspace for Russian aircraft. Transport Minister Volker Wissing (51, FDP) supports the closure and has ordered everything to be prepared for it, his ministry announced on Saturday evening.
https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/wirtschaft/ukraine-krieg-lufthansa-stellt-russland-fluege-ein-79288168.bild.html###wt_ref=https://t.co/&wt_t=1645912318374
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1497691295405559808
https://twitter.com/kevin_j_foster/status/1497671997756788737
When this concludes I doubt Boris will remain PM
A deep dive into the financial sanctions
But the one in Kyiv was just hit. At least one child was killed.
https://twitter.com/_EmmaGH/status/1497677005575307270
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukraine-aviation-situation-updates/
Despite all the positive reports of Ukrainian resistance and Russian ineptitude, I am steeling myself for the prospect that Ukraine falls within the next week.
I do so much hope I am wrong.