Adam Tooze @adam_tooze · 1h We are in truly dangerous spiral: Brave Ukrainian resistance frustrates Russian attack -> Kiev refuses humiliating negotiations. Russia about to ramp up destructiveness of attack NATO members rushing weapons to Ukraine EU/US announce major sanctions. What is Russia’s next move?
This is the worry ignored by many on here...this situation could spiral in unpredictable ways to the detriment of the west....
The bear has to be confronted at some point. If not now, when?
Yes. It has to be now. Here and now. That much has become obvious
Because if we don’t at least try and stop this, then this frothing wolverine of a puffy old man will come for NATO and that means outright nuclear war or pathetic subjugation for all of us
"The statesman's task is to hear God's footsteps marching through history, and to try and catch on to His coattails as He marches past."
It is too early to be thinking about how to get Putin to back-track.
Our job right now is to strain every sinew to assist Ukraine to avoid decapitation.
If Ukraine and Zelensky can hold on another week, two weeks, then we’ll need to think about it.
The status quo ante is probably not acceptable. We want Russia (or Russian proxies) out of the Donbas full stop. However we should we willing to “trade” Crimea, and Ukranian neutrality.
I wouldn’t. For me it’s simple - Putin doesn’t get to decide which bits are and aren’t Ukraine or whether Ukraine is neutral, and neither do we. It’s for the Ukrainians and them alone.
It is too early to be thinking about how to get Putin to back-track.
Our job right now is to strain every sinew to assist Ukraine to avoid decapitation.
If Ukraine and Zelensky can hold on another week, two weeks, then we’ll need to think about it.
The status quo ante is probably not acceptable. We want Russia (or Russian proxies) out of the Donbas full stop. However we should we willing to “trade” Crimea, and Ukranian neutrality.
I wouldn’t. For me it’s simple - Putin doesn’t get to decide which bits are and aren’t Ukraine or whether Ukraine is neutral, and neither do we. It’s for the Ukrainians and them alone.
What does that mean. Ukraine can’t, for example, have a unilateral right to join NATO.
It is too early to be thinking about how to get Putin to back-track.
Our job right now is to strain every sinew to assist Ukraine to avoid decapitation.
If Ukraine and Zelensky can hold on another week, two weeks, then we’ll need to think about it.
The status quo ante is probably not acceptable. We want Russia (or Russian proxies) out of the Donbas full stop. However we should we willing to “trade” Crimea, and Ukranian neutrality.
I wouldn’t. For me it’s simple - Putin doesn’t get to decide which bits are and aren’t Ukraine or whether Ukraine is neutral, and neither do we. It’s for the Ukrainians and them alone.
What does that mean. Ukraine can’t, for example, have a unilateral right to join NATO.
No, but that’s not the same thing as us having a view on whether or not it’s neutral.
It is too early to be thinking about how to get Putin to back-track.
Our job right now is to strain every sinew to assist Ukraine to avoid decapitation.
If Ukraine and Zelensky can hold on another week, two weeks, then we’ll need to think about it.
The status quo ante is probably not acceptable. We want Russia (or Russian proxies) out of the Donbas full stop. However we should we willing to “trade” Crimea, and Ukranian neutrality.
I wouldn’t. For me it’s simple - Putin doesn’t get to decide which bits are and aren’t Ukraine or whether Ukraine is neutral, and neither do we. It’s for the Ukrainians and them alone.
What does that mean. Ukraine can’t, for example, have a unilateral right to join NATO.
No, but that’s not the same thing as us having a view on whether or not it’s neutral.
We already did, implicitly. We didn’t allow Ukraine into NATO before, it just that we were not vocal about it.
It is too early to be thinking about how to get Putin to back-track.
Our job right now is to strain every sinew to assist Ukraine to avoid decapitation.
If Ukraine and Zelensky can hold on another week, two weeks, then we’ll need to think about it.
The status quo ante is probably not acceptable. We want Russia (or Russian proxies) out of the Donbas full stop. However we should we willing to “trade” Crimea, and Ukranian neutrality.
I wouldn’t. For me it’s simple - Putin doesn’t get to decide which bits are and aren’t Ukraine or whether Ukraine is neutral, and neither do we. It’s for the Ukrainians and them alone.
What does that mean. Ukraine can’t, for example, have a unilateral right to join NATO.
No, but that’s not the same thing as us having a view on whether or not it’s neutral.
We already did, implicitly. We didn’t allow Ukraine into NATO before, it just that we were not vocal about it.
Another reason the demand to be explicit are bogus
I hope someone clever in NATO leadership is figuring out the various endgames. A damaged or humiliated Putin would be hugely dangerous.
Crimea and Donbass back to Ukraine, Kaliningrad back to Poland, Karelia back to Finland, maybe an independent North Caucasus state to cut them off from the Black Sea. They can keep St. Petersburg if they cooperate.
I think you may be a little ahead of yourself here.
If you are right- fantastic!
Anyway, Kaliningrad used to be part of East Prussia (Germany) not Poland.
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Otto Von Bismarck.
We didn’t allow Ukraine into NATO before, it just that we were not vocal about it.