Starmer still has a 30%+ net approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com

System

Starmer still has a 30%+ net approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com

This means that Johnson has a net MINUS 33% with Starmer net MINUS 1%. So the LAB leader has a margin of 32%

Read the full story here

IshmaelZ

1st

Big_G_NorthWales

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

ydoethur

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

Which is unfair, as Starmer if anything has been calling for more effort. But Johnson of course has the advantage of being able to do things rather than just talk about what he would do. And in fairness, he has been doing things.

MoonRabbit

Gary_Burton said:

The latest
@OpiniumResearch

@ObserverUK
poll shows a 4 point Labour lead.

Con 34%
Lab 38% (+1)
Lib Dem 11%
Green 6%

Behind all this international crisis The People have decided on Boris Johnson, most likely his Parliamentary Party have too. Soon as the news narrative changes there will be a reckoning - for now our thoughts and prayers are in Ukraine.

ydoethur

FPT

Mexicanpete said:

Scott_xP said:

⚡️Russian losses in last 24 hrs of its war against Ukraine:

SU-30 fighter aircraft, 11 helicopters, 2 Su-25 aircraft, 2 Il-76 air-fighters, a column of equipment and fuel echelon, according to Air Force Command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497659908866678786

If Zelensky can pull this off ( and I am more sanguine than many on here) there should be a massive uptick in Johnson's support. The great Churchillian Statesman by default.

Another ten, even twenty years of Johnson who I detest, is a price I would be more than happy to pay for this evil to stop.

Now look, I want Ukraine to win and Putin to die after being caught cowering in a sewer and sodomised by 50 people wielding a 15 inch dildo Leon has knapped specially for the task.

But I'm not willing to go *that* far.

Chameleon

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

ydoethur

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

FPT

Mexicanpete said:

Scott_xP said:

⚡️Russian losses in last 24 hrs of its war against Ukraine:

SU-30 fighter aircraft, 11 helicopters, 2 Su-25 aircraft, 2 Il-76 air-fighters, a column of equipment and fuel echelon, according to Air Force Command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497659908866678786

If Zelensky can pull this off ( and I am more sanguine than many on here) there should be a massive uptick in Johnson's support. The great Churchillian Statesman by default.

Another ten, even twenty years of Johnson who I detest, is a price I would be more than happy to pay for this evil to stop.

Now look, I want Ukraine to win and Putin to die after being caught cowering in a sewer and sodomised by 50 people wielding a 15 inch dildo Leon has knapped specially for the task.

But I'm not willing to go *that* far.

It's worse for me, twenty years would be a full term life sentence. You would still have a couple of terms each of PMs JRM and Darren Grimes to enjoy.

BlancheLivermore

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

ydoethur

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Mexicanpete said:

Scott_xP said:

⚡️Russian losses in last 24 hrs of its war against Ukraine:

SU-30 fighter aircraft, 11 helicopters, 2 Su-25 aircraft, 2 Il-76 air-fighters, a column of equipment and fuel echelon, according to Air Force Command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497659908866678786

If Zelensky can pull this off ( and I am more sanguine than many on here) there should be a massive uptick in Johnson's support. The great Churchillian Statesman by default.

Another ten, even twenty years of Johnson who I detest, is a price I would be more than happy to pay for this evil to stop.

Now look, I want Ukraine to win and Putin to die after being caught cowering in a sewer and sodomised by 50 people wielding a 15 inch dildo Leon has knapped specially for the task.

But I'm not willing to go *that* far.

It's worse for me, twenty years would be a full term life sentence. You would still have a couple of terms each of PMs JRM and Darren Grimes to enjoy.

I think I'd rather go the way of the director of Gazprom...

CarlottaVance

This evening I spoke to President @ZelenskyyUa. The heroism of the President and his people in the defence of their country is awe-inspiring.

We are clear – Russia must be isolated diplomatically and financially. I welcome increased willingness to exclude Russia from SWIFT.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1497671476295745538

Andy_JS

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

We expected their morale to be low but maybe it's ever lower than expected. That might explain a lot.

Chameleon

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

Potentially, would make sense that an army at the end of a training exercise would be low on food/fuel. I also suspect that the thousands od NLAWs and Javelins were seriously underrated. A lot of Russia's mistakes (such as vehicles travelling in convoys down main roads without a fear, often without any offensive weapons beyond small arms, as well as trying to use vehicles for capturing urban land) make more sense in a situation where the opponent has only very limited and old anti-tank capability.

not_on_fire

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

Putins argument is that they are all Nazis

ydoethur

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

Then he was heading the wrong way. The neo-Nazis are all in the Kremlin which is 500 lies* to the north-east.

*That was meant to be 'miles' but I like the autocorrect so much I'm leaving it in.

pigeon

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Casino_Royale

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It supports what my ex-RN colleague was saying about their people quality and organization culture.

It would be entirely fitting of Putin to focus on the phallicism of weaponry and troop numbers, whilst being very dismissive of combined arms and integrated C&C techniques believing his own rhetoric instead about innate Russian superiority.

However, the Russians aren't stupid and can learn quickly.

Leon

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

FrancisUrquhart

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

TimS

The home office is, as usual, being its nasty tone deaf self. That department, through multiple governments, reflects the very worst of British curtain twitching, NIMBYish, jobsworth, “rules are rules” callousness.

CorrectHorseBattery

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (+1)
CON: 34% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 23-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 9-11 Feb.

SKS fans please explain?

HYUFD

Preferred PM is the most accurate figure and on that Starmer only leads Johnson by 3%. The same as the Labour voting intention lead

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497663508179083264?s=20&t=QQpxdql6skhkyPIL2AKUcQ

FrancisUrquhart

TimS said:

The home office is, as usual, being its nasty tone deaf self. That department, through multiple governments, reflects the very worst of British curtain twitching, NIMBYish, jobsworth, “rules are rules” callousness.

They probably all buggered off on holiday for half term and too busy skiing...and those left are just working from home, 10-4, Mon-Thurs.

Gallowgate

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

Perfect opportunity for a drone strike…

CorrectHorseBattery

Rishi has completely missed his chance, I'd bet on Johnson leading the Tories into the next election to be honest.

TimS

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.

The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.

Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.

Big_G_NorthWales

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

Which is unfair, as Starmer if anything has been calling for more effort. But Johnson of course has the advantage of being able to do things rather than just talk about what he would do. And in fairness, he has been doing things.

And of course labour still have the Corbyn legacy in the background

Scott_xP

All EU states closing airspace for Russian carriers. https://twitter.com/matthiasdeiss/status/1497671385686196228

tlg86

TimS said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.

The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.

Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.

How many Russians between Putin and the button/key? I’m not certain his orders would be obeyed.

Omnium

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

If you look at wikipedia (which one hopes is roughly right) a huge amount of the Russian's armaments are described as reserves. 16500 tanks vs 2800 active as an example.

IanB2

Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.

pigeon

not_on_fire said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

Putins argument is that they are all Nazis

Putin's argument is that the Ukrainian leadership are Nazis (or, more precisely, neo-Nazis and drug addicts) and that he wants to free the rest of the Ukrainian people from them. It's one of the reasons why he's in such a bind. If he begins a wholesale slaughter of the Ukrainian civil population then trying to maintain the pretence of being a liberator garlanded with flowers is going to be somewhat difficult. Even the more credulous elements of the Russian population, who generally swallow the output of the state media uncritically, might begin to smell a rat under such circumstances.

CarlottaVance

Summat's up - a couple of Lufthansa flights to the Far East have turned round before entering Russian airspace:

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1497655240690180101?s=20&t=N7jB51R046s3YvWxfV2VVQ

BlancheLivermore

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (+1)
CON: 34% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 23-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 9-11 Feb.

SKS fans please explain?

What better chance than the last week to prove himself the anti-Corbyn?

DougSeal

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.

Leon

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

Sunil_Prasannan

IanB2 said:

Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.

737 Max!

747 is the jumbo jet.

FrancisUrquhart

It would be rather ironic that if Putin corrupt regime funnelling all this dodgy money into the military has in fact been used to enrich the top brass rather than build out his arsenal of weaponry.

However, I think I will reserve judgment about this based on random tweets, when so much misinformation flying about.

ydoethur

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

Which is unfair, as Starmer if anything has been calling for more effort. But Johnson of course has the advantage of being able to do things rather than just talk about what he would do. And in fairness, he has been doing things.

And of course labour still have the Corbyn legacy in the background

Given Cummings was actually accused of being linked to the FSB, that should be evened out between the parties.

Barnesian

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

The material is reworked, effects from Instagram have been added, and his statements are cut off old statements that someone pasted on and that do not even match the movement of the mouth. Original video with Kadyrov, from which the frame and his lips are taken here:
https://youtu.be/rwyfOOTJNpE?t=4

Sunil_Prasannan

Remember:

DougSeal

HYUFD said:

Preferred PM is the most accurate figure and on that Starmer only leads Johnson by 3%. The same as the Labour voting intention lead

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497663508179083264?s=20&t=QQpxdql6skhkyPIL2AKUcQ

“Only” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Johnson’s supposed to be your election winning machine.

JosiasJessop

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

ydoethur

DougSeal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.

Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.

WhisperingOracle

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

There may not be that much time to spare.

pigeon

Omnium said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

If you look at wikipedia (which one hopes is roughly right) a huge amount of the Russian's armaments are described as reserves. 16500 tanks vs 2800 active as an example.

Which of course prompts the question of how many of those reserve vehicles actually exist, how many are rusting hulks, how many are serviceable but lack spares, and how many are in fully operational condition but lack fuel, ammunition, a qualified crew or all three?

Flatlander

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

On the other hand, if the Chechens are just mercenaries, why do they care whether Kyiv is Russian or not?

The first sign of trouble and they'll be wondering what the hell this is for, like just about everyone except Putin.

OnlyLivingBoy

IanB2 said:

Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.

Yes it is excellent. Damning on Boeing's corporate culture and the corrosive influence of C-suite greed and the tyranny of the quarterly reporting cycle. Incredible how someone can preside over it all and leave with an eight figure golden parachute.

FrancisUrquhart

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Omnium

pigeon said:

Omnium said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

If you look at wikipedia (which one hopes is roughly right) a huge amount of the Russian's armaments are described as reserves. 16500 tanks vs 2800 active as an example.

Which of course prompts the question of how many of those reserve vehicles actually exist, how many are rusting hulks, how many are serviceable but lack spares, and how many are in fully operational condition but lack fuel, ammunition, a qualified crew or all three?

Indeed.

pigeon

Gallowgate said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

Perfect opportunity for a drone strike…

Or just one more NLAW victim, if it's not adequately guarded.

Scott_xP

Ireland has lifted visa requirements for Ukrainians. https://twitter.com/hmcentee/status/1497158118509187076

Meanwhile...

@pritipatel This is important. Please clarify.

If Home Office has lifted income/language requirements & restrictions to closest relatives that wd be first step.

But website says they all still apply & that’s what people are being told.

Ukraine is in crisis. We need simple sanctuary route https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1497672366133952515/photo/1

DougSeal

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (+1)
CON: 34% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 23-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 9-11 Feb.

SKS fans please explain?

Explain what? Fieldwork for covers the first two days of the Ukraine invasion and there’s no bounce for Johnson - at least not yet.

Fishing

On topic, leadership approval has been significantly less correlated to the outcome fo the next general election than voting intention. However, neither are a good guide two years out. Starmer may triumph at the next election, he may not, but I'm afraid that mid-term polls tell us nothing at all either way.

JosiasJessop

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.

Yes it is excellent. Damning on Boeing's corporate culture and the corrosive influence of C-suite greed and the tyranny of the quarterly reporting cycle. Incredible how someone can preside over it all and leave with an eight figure golden parachute.

I don't have Netflix, but I can imagine there's lots of material. Boeing have really, really mucked up several high-profile projects and products. Their reputation has gone down the toilet.

williamglenn

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

Perhaps they spent all the money on the war room and now Russia's exposing itself as a Potemkin power.

FrankBooth

It was rather odd requesting Kazakhstan send troops given the position that country has been in.

I still think the Russians are digging in and trying to resupply but I would have expected more 'shock and awe.'

pigeon

tlg86 said:

TimS said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.

The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.

Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.

How many Russians between Putin and the button/key? I’m not certain his orders would be obeyed.

As I said earlier this evening, you may be right but I'd rather that my own life and the entire future of civilization didn't hinge on the robustness of the Russian command and control structure and it's ability to foil a psychotic suicidal lunatic. A successful palace coup is the best resolution to this crisis.

Leon

Flatlander said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

On the other hand, if the Chechens are just mercenaries, why do they care whether Kyiv is Russian or not?

The first sign of trouble and they'll be wondering what the hell this is for, like just about everyone except Putin.

A good point. And, for all their famed brutality, they surely can't harbour much love for Putin, who levelled their entire country, turning Grozny into a wasteland

A generous offer from the West, and they might easily switch sides

OnlyLivingBoy

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

Theuniondivvie

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

There may not be that much time to spare.

Who is more spineless in getting rid of their corrupt and morally bankrupt leader, the PCP or Putin’s coterie? You have to say the former since since the consequences for them are of an order of magnitude less serious.

Casino_Royale

tlg86 said:

TimS said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.

The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.

Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.

How many Russians between Putin and the button/key? I’m not certain his orders would be obeyed.

I'm in no doubt that a lot of Russians (maybe 50-60% if you count up all of them, particularly across the small towns and rural Russia?) in principle support Putin and believe that Ukraine should really be Russian territory. But, but it's far from universal, and many of those same people will be basically rational and won't follow him to the bitter end in a nasty and protracted war where he sounds increasingly unhinged.

DougSeal

ydoethur said:

DougSeal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.

Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.

No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.

Roger

I wonder what Labour's lead would be on he methodology they used to use. If nine became three God knows what four would have been!

WhisperingOracle

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

A bit different from opening fire with rocket-propelled grenades , though, surely.

IshmaelZ

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

Remind us of the actual deatrh count there?

pigeon

CarlottaVance said:

Summat's up - a couple of Lufthansa flights to the Far East have turned round before entering Russian airspace:

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1497655240690180101?s=20&t=N7jB51R046s3YvWxfV2VVQ

I believe that the entire EU has now closed its airspace to Russian flights, so Russia will have responded in kind.

Casino_Royale

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

Who'd want to be the general to tell Putin he was wrong?

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed

TheWhiteRabbit

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

I think it is more likely the Russian underestimated their adversary, both in tactical prowess, armament, and desire. I think they partly believe their own rhetoric in that regard, that Russia is a liberator.

Big_G_NorthWales

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

DougSeal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.

Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.

No analogy is perfect but there’s a lot of talk here of a “Churchillian Bounce”. If you wanted something like that it would be a post Falklands “Thatcher Bounce”. I don’t see how this impacts Johnson’s overall favourability much at all.

It is far too early to talk of a bounce but the next few weeks may provide a clearer picture

OnlyLivingBoy

JosiasJessop said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.

Yes it is excellent. Damning on Boeing's corporate culture and the corrosive influence of C-suite greed and the tyranny of the quarterly reporting cycle. Incredible how someone can preside over it all and leave with an eight figure golden parachute.

I don't have Netflix, but I can imagine there's lots of material. Boeing have really, really mucked up several high-profile projects and products. Their reputation has gone down the toilet.

It is sad because as the film makes clear they used to have a well deserved reputation for engineering excellence. When you see the sheer complexity of these machines, the miles of wiring inside each one, my main feeling was that it's a miracle they don't crash more often. They are phenomenally reliable, mostly. But the company's failures over the Max project are absolutely jaw-dropping.

BlancheLivermore

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
What I can say is that 🇺🇦Ukraine’s military have been demonstrating outstanding anti-tank effectiveness. I’m just losing count of Russian armor convoys slaughtered every several hours across the country.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497670726891020294

Flatlander

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

A friend of mine was a mining engineer. He had to continue work or the pit would have become defunct.

He was attacked on his way to work and beaten up, and his bicycle thrown in the river. He also had to arm himself with an iron bar when the mob were attacking their own buildings and stand in an office corridor where "they could only come at me one at a time".

I don't think anyone should have been squeamish about beating the pickets up.

Roger

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Remember:

Lose the 'and'

Foxy

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

Yes, the Russian Army may well be like the Afghan Army, a few first rate troops, and a lot of paper capability, but that evaporates when put to the test.

I certainly hope so.

darkage

Scott_xP said:

Ireland has lifted visa requirements for Ukrainians. https://twitter.com/hmcentee/status/1497158118509187076

Meanwhile...

@pritipatel This is important. Please clarify.

If Home Office has lifted income/language requirements & restrictions to closest relatives that wd be first step.

But website says they all still apply & that’s what people are being told.

Ukraine is in crisis. We need simple sanctuary route https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1497672366133952515/photo/1

I have regularly criticised the home office, and did point out this problem earlier on in the day. However, the focus at the moment - 3 or so days in to the conflict, should be to arm the people in Ukraine who are actually fighting the Russians. We should be throwing everything in to that, with the aim of beating Putin or coming to a negotiated settlement. If that is achieved, then there will be no refugee crisis.

Leon

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Summat's up - a couple of Lufthansa flights to the Far East have turned round before entering Russian airspace:

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1497655240690180101?s=20&t=N7jB51R046s3YvWxfV2VVQ

I believe that the entire EU has now closed its airspace to Russian flights, so Russia will have responded in kind.

Yup

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed

Wow. The Tory party are tough these days!

Fairliered

Scott_xP said:

Ireland has lifted visa requirements for Ukrainians. https://twitter.com/hmcentee/status/1497158118509187076

Meanwhile...

@pritipatel This is important. Please clarify.

If Home Office has lifted income/language requirements & restrictions to closest relatives that wd be first step.

But website says they all still apply & that’s what people are being told.

Ukraine is in crisis. We need simple sanctuary route https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1497672366133952515/photo/1

Johnson or Patel had better get the Home Office’s arse into gear before PMQs or it could be a public relations bloodbath.

WhisperingOracle

There must surely be mental pandamonium among some of Russia's top brass, even if the war is still going slightly better for them than presented in the western media. They're losing the information and propaganda war badly, they must at least have suffered more significant reverses and slowness of advance than expected, and international isolation will soon be beginning to bite.

Who will be brave enough to take any crucial step, I wonder.

dixiedean

There is another explanation for the poor military planning. That senior folk think he's gone mad. And only a shambles will bring him down.
In a way that could be the most optimistic view of all.

Leon

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

Jesus. I know you're a lefty and you love this mythology but Thatcher did not ask Biritish police to run over miners with tanks, or strafe their homes with jets, or napalm their children with flamtethrowers

Get a grip

state_go_away

Barnesian said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

The material is reworked, effects from Instagram have been added, and his statements are cut off old statements that someone pasted on and that do not even match the movement of the mouth. Original video with Kadyrov, from which the frame and his lips are taken here:
https://youtu.be/rwyfOOTJNpE?t=4

yes a deep fake

darkage

One thing that came to my mind just now is that the last few days completely blows apart the argument that Britain needed to be in the EU to have influence over questions of defence and international relations. On Russia we have, accidentally or otherwise, shown leadership and the EU have followed.

Fairliered

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed

That would mean a lot of by-elections. Oh, wait, you meant the Russians?

Richard_Tyndall

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Summat's up - a couple of Lufthansa flights to the Far East have turned round before entering Russian airspace:

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1497655240690180101?s=20&t=N7jB51R046s3YvWxfV2VVQ

I believe that the entire EU has now closed its airspace to Russian flights, so Russia will have responded in kind.

From the Telegraph website

Lufthansa halts flights to Russia for a week
German airline Lufthansa on Saturday said it will cancel all flights to Russia and will cease using Russian airspace for the coming week, citing the "emerging regulatory situation".

"Flights that are in Russian airspace will leave it again shortly," a spokesperson for the company said, adding that the company was in close contact with national and international authorities and would continue to monitor the situation closely.

PJohnson

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

Yes the more Ukraine resists the worse and more bloody it will be for them. Do the ukrainian people really want this

Sunil_Prasannan

DougSeal said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (+1)
CON: 34% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 23-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 9-11 Feb.

SKS fans please explain?

Explain what? Fieldwork for covers the first two days of the Ukraine invasion and there’s no bounce for Johnson - at least not yet.

He's just trolling @bigjohnowls

Richard_Tyndall

PJohnson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

Yes the more Ukraine resists the worse and more bloody it will be for them. Do the ukrainian people really want this

Oh what a surprise the Kremlin bot turns up to comment again.

BlancheLivermore

Putin murdering Greeks now

Prime Minister GR
@PrimeministerGR
10 innocent civilians of Greek origin killed today by Russian air strikes close to Mariupol. Stop the bombing now!
https://twitter.com/PrimeministerGR/status/1497677174924529670

state_go_away

TimS said:

The home office is, as usual, being its nasty tone deaf self. That department, through multiple governments, reflects the very worst of British curtain twitching, NIMBYish, jobsworth, “rules are rules” callousness.

Didnt Patel have a covid grassing up hotline? Shoudl have used it herself to grass up Johnson

TheValiant

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

The Soviet Union badly fucked up the first month or so of the Winter War, and remember that just before Barbarrosa, Germany and its allies had 1.2million troops against 2million Soviet troops.

Throughout the whole of the Second World War, Germany consistently lost LESS men than the Soviet Union throughout the whole of the 1941 to 1944 period.

Put simply, I don't think Russia is actually very good at warfare. They win by steamrolling their opponents.

Sunil_Prasannan

Roger said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Remember:

Lose the 'and'

Why don't you just f**k off and join the Tories

ClippP

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Preferred PM is the most accurate figure and on that Starmer only leads Johnson by 3%. The same as the Labour voting intention lead

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497663508179083264?s=20&t=QQpxdql6skhkyPIL2AKUcQ

“Only” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Johnson’s supposed to be your election winning machine.

Sorry, young HY. Your Johnson is a loser. Please can you Tories do somthing about him. I have no desire to see Starmer win by a landslide.

HYUFD

Fairliered said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed

That would mean a lot of by-elections. Oh, wait, you meant the Russians?

Probably, though Boris had said his favourite film is the Godfather

Chameleon

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Yep I think there's a decent case of that being true. Certainly the Ukrainian army is unrecognisable compared to just 8 years ago.

On a separate note, in almost all of the videos I've seen so far (the exception are the VDV from the airport), captured Russians have been either senior officers, or 17-23 year olds.

Young conscripts (technically volunteers, but they were conscripts coerced into signing contracts just before crossing the border) fighting a brother nation are not going to be motivated, or have key experience. There's a reason why most countries have moved towards professional armies.

PJohnson

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Not fully true....russia fears a nuclear armed Ukraine on its doorstep so no the problem does not fully go away

PoodleInASlipstream

BlancheLivermore said:

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
What I can say is that 🇺🇦Ukraine’s military have been demonstrating outstanding anti-tank effectiveness. I’m just losing count of Russian armor convoys slaughtered every several hours across the country.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497670726891020294

I have a feeling this war may do for the Main Battle Tank what WWII did for the Battleship.

pigeon

PJohnson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

Yes the more Ukraine resists the worse and more bloody it will be for them. Do the ukrainian people really want this

Seems very much like it - a large proportion of them, at least.

Perhaps the notion of attempting to resist and dying fighting appeals more than being crushed under the heel of Tsar Vladimir's jackboot forever?