Has @RishiSunak got the bottle to take on @BorisJohnson after all? Just distanced himself from the PM over his smear of Starmer over Savile. "It's a question for the prime minister rather than me" he tells @Peston
And the words he wants you to hear? "being honest"
I'm taking a middle ground. That's well-judged. It's from the same stable as 'recollections may vary' - exuberantly understated and we know exactly what he means.
It can't be resolved and as it's virtually impossible that the DUP are going to win the most seats at the next election that's how they want it.
But they are likely to come second. And they can paralyse Stormont even as Deputy FM.
To be honest, I don’t blame them. They were sold up the river by the UK government and what are they suppose to do - grin and bear it?
The NIP - as Theresa May rightly recognised - should never have been entertained for a moment.
If the 12% currently voting TUV switch back to the DUP, then the DUP could even narrowly come first again and would certainly be a stronger second than they are polling now
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
Two different VONCs - Tory party - he's out and can't run, so far as I recall. - Commons - somebody else needs to form a government. I'm not at all sure that Boris can't just reform. HMQ simply invites aspirants so far as I know. Most likely a GE would result. There's no way Tory MPs want a GE now, so this route is unlikely.
Unless the Conservative Party were to actually split, with Johnson taking a bunch of MPs with him, then the new leader of the Coservative Party would have the support of 325+ MPs, and would become Prime Minister.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
Two different VONCs - Tory party - he's out and can't run, so far as I recall. - Commons - somebody else needs to form a government. I'm not at all sure that Boris can't just reform. HMQ simply invites aspirants so far as I know. Most likely a GE would result. There's no way Tory MPs want a GE now, so this route is unlikely.
Again a GE even after a VONC needs 66% of the MPs to support it.
See section 2(3). If there's a VONC and no VOC within 14 days an election results. The VONC only requires a majority of the House.
Yes, there’s a two week clock, following a vote of confidence against the government in the Commons.
The Tories, as a party, would have two weeks to nominate a new leader and convince enough of their MPs not to split that they could win a second vote of confidence.
Which, faced by a GE I think they would do with ease. As I said this idea of Johnson clinging on threatening a GE is garbage.
But how do they get him to resign as PM? He'd be delighted to force a GE. It would be his only remaining card.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
Currently, a GE needs a simple majority of MPs, just like the 2019 one did.
However, DACOP should be law within weeks, at which point the calculus changes radically.
The 2019 election needed a simple majority because Parliament passed the Early Parliamentary General Election Act which automatically lapsed once the Election had been held. Would Johnson get a similar act through Parliament this time?
It's more likely than a Commons VONC, I would think.
In Number 10 Dougie Smith is the key Tory fixer – the man who knows where the bodies are buried and hardly ever gets mentioned by the press, for some reason. This Boris loyalist is now firmly in the “it has to be Rishi” camp, say insiders. Smith is married to Munira Mirza, who has worked for Johnson for 14 years.
News of the resignation was broken by The Spectator’s James Forsyth, a friend of Mirza. His wife Allegra Stratton worked alongside her in Downing Street.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He missed the long covid boat. He shound have deployed that last summer.
Yes, because he'd admit he's been unfit to be PM in at least one crucial sense, for a whole year and more [edit] if he now handed in his jotters.
If he had gone in the summer, he could have claimed, I have been suffering from long COVID, I have good days and bad, I hoped that I would be able to get over it, but after consultation with my doctor they have suggested that high levels of demand placed on any PM is harming any chances of making a full recovery from this appalling illness.
And the thing is I actually believe this has been the case.
Yes, me too
@MaxPB made a good point on the last thread. The Savile thing looks like classic Crosby, but maybe it was totally mishandled by Boris, because he’s not functioning at even 50% capacity
Because there are some questions to be asked about Starmer’s term as DPP, on various points, but the way Boris did it was blundering oafish and just damn ugly. Making it easy for Starmer to be aggrieved and making Boris look so bad he has had to say sorry 3 days later
This is just crap basic politics, and the old Boris - the funny, campaigning Boris - would not have made these egregious errors
"The old funny campaigning Boris".
Aw, poignant. So poignant. But c'mon, don't feel down, you'll always have Paris ... sorry I mean Brexit. Brexit.
And that 'Love Actually' PPB he did. God, remember that? It was AMAZEBALLS.
LOL.
Fair enough. This is your time now. Enjoy
But we will ALWAYS have Brexit. And the eternal grief of the Remoaners. You can’t take that away from us. It is delicious and forever
Well I'm not a Remoaner. And let me now try and cheer you up.
I think the Board generally might be over-interpreting this. The Savile slur was bad but it wasn't a massive departure from Johnson. I wasn't as shocked as some others. And I doubt it's the real reason for Mirza jacking her job in. She wasn't influential and her departure isn't such a massive deal. It's interesting and important but it's not imo something to bring the house down.
I still give Johnson a decent outside chance of surviving to the GE and winning it if he does. What would change my assessment is if the public - via polls and/or the local elections - make it clear to Tory MPs that they need to ditch him if they want to avoid a mass loss of seats and a Labour government.
Mirza is married to Dougie Smith, a former senior Conservative party aide .... She had a son in 2013.[5]
You might want to recheck wikipedia...and edit your post.
And you to Google munira mirza husband. I may look stupid, but I am just bright enough to double source that sort of thing. Especially on a page I myself edited this afternoon.
My apologises. You are quite right. Apparently unashamedly so.
Wonder who is busy taking it down from wikipedia given this is the case?
Not a conspiracy - it is one of WP's regular wonks tidying the page because he knows it's going to be well visited. The former business venture of her other half isn't really pertinent to her own WP article.
I wasn't suggesting a conspiracy, just more wondering why somebody is taking down something that is true and by other reports the guy in question is completely fine with people knowing that is what the business he runs.
But I can see the general sentiment of what you are saying.
Just because something is true doesn't necessarily make it relevant to a Wikipedia page - especially a BLP.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
Currently, a GE needs a simple majority of MPs, just like the 2019 one did.
However, DACOP should be law within weeks, at which point the calculus changes radically.
The 2019 election needed a simple majority because Parliament passed the Early Parliamentary General Election Act which automatically lapsed once the Election had been held. Would Johnson get a similar act through Parliament this time?
In Number 10 Dougie Smith is the key Tory fixer – the man who knows where the bodies are buried and hardly ever gets mentioned by the press, for some reason. This Boris loyalist is now firmly in the “it has to be Rishi” camp, say insiders. Smith is married to Munira Mirza, who has worked for Johnson for 14 years.
News of the resignation was broken by The Spectator’s James Forsyth, a friend of Mirza. His wife Allegra Stratton worked alongside her in Downing Street.
One of the least self-aware criticisms levelled at Johnson was that he runs the government "like a medieval court".
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Andrew Griffith MP as an unpaid Parliamentary Secretary (Minister for Policy and Head of the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit) in the Cabinet Office. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1489271863238959122
In Number 10 Dougie Smith is the key Tory fixer – the man who knows where the bodies are buried and hardly ever gets mentioned by the press, for some reason. This Boris loyalist is now firmly in the “it has to be Rishi” camp, say insiders. Smith is married to Munira Mirza, who has worked for Johnson for 14 years.
News of the resignation was broken by The Spectator’s James Forsyth, a friend of Mirza. His wife Allegra Stratton worked alongside her in Downing Street.
Just as well we have taken back control from an unaccountable unelected self-serving elite, otherwise we would be in trouble.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
Lol
The one thing IN YOUR ENTIRE LIFE that has made you angrier than anything else is when the British prime minister made a clumsy jibe at some boring Labour lawyer about a thing that DID happen under his watch but he was likely not responsible for blah blah
That made you ANGRIER THAN ANYTHING ELSE, EVAH???
GET A GRIP, MAN
And I just don’t believe you were “literally, trembling” over there in New York
What an entirely laughable comment, from beginning to end. Have a brandy
Yeh, it made me furious. I don’t get angry very often.
I know you don’t get it, but that’s because you’re a jaded debauchee.
It’s too early for a brandy, by 2 minutes.
But were you “literally, trembling” as you “felt the buckling of one of the pillars of British democracy”???
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
One shouldn't sneer at strong ethical values even if one doesn't share them.
Tory activists are the great unknown in all this. Ultimately I think it absurd that MPs shouldn't be responsible for choosing the Prime minister.
Both Labour and the Tories have means for the MPs to screen who the activists get to pick from, however, which if done right should mean activists have limited sway.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
Lol
The one thing IN YOUR ENTIRE LIFE that has made you angrier than anything else is when the British prime minister made a clumsy jibe at some boring Labour lawyer about a thing that DID happen under his watch but he was likely not responsible for blah blah
That made you ANGRIER THAN ANYTHING ELSE, EVAH???
GET A GRIP, MAN
And I just don’t believe you were “literally, trembling” over there in New York
What an entirely laughable comment, from beginning to end. Have a brandy
Yeh, it made me furious. I don’t get angry very often.
I know you don’t get it, but that’s because you’re a jaded debauchee.
It’s too early for a brandy, by 2 minutes.
But were you “literally, trembling” as you “felt the buckling of one of the pillars of British democracy”???
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
One shouldn't sneer at strong ethical values even if one doesn't share them.
I tried putting
- "SeanT" - "Strong ethical values"
in the same sentence. Something kept going wrong - bit like magnets with poles opposing each other.
A key political ally bailing on the PM, just before the Chancellor does a nationally televised press conference about how he's working to deliver help for people in a cost of living crisis. Convenient.
...all while his presumed closest rival to takeover is stuck in Covid quarantine. Doubly convenient.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
Neither Nadine Dorries or JRFM will quit the Tory party. They would only be MPs going forward but it's a cushy job for the money in their constituencies.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
Currently, a GE needs a simple majority of MPs, just like the 2019 one did.
However, DACOP should be law within weeks, at which point the calculus changes radically.
The 2019 election needed a simple majority because Parliament passed the Early Parliamentary General Election Act which automatically lapsed once the Election had been held. Would Johnson get a similar act through Parliament this time?
Tory activists are the great unknown in all this. Ultimately I think it absurd that MPs shouldn't be responsible for choosing the Prime minister.
Voters are responsible for choosing the PM at general elections (confirmed by the Queen).
No reason party members should not get to choose the PM if their party has a majority in the Commons and the PM is changed midterm. MPs in any case nominate the candidates and in the Tory party select the final 2 the members pick from
In Number 10 Dougie Smith is the key Tory fixer – the man who knows where the bodies are buried and hardly ever gets mentioned by the press, for some reason. This Boris loyalist is now firmly in the “it has to be Rishi” camp, say insiders. Smith is married to Munira Mirza, who has worked for Johnson for 14 years.
News of the resignation was broken by The Spectator’s James Forsyth, a friend of Mirza. His wife Allegra Stratton worked alongside her in Downing Street.
Just as well we have taken back control from an unaccountable unelected self-serving elite, otherwise we would be in trouble.
The problem is the list of people who *want* the job is getting smaller, if anything. Politics is of less and less interest as a career.
It's rather like the chaps who complain on the Guardian about the small number of people who own lots of the land in this country - it's as much to do with people not wanting to buy it as anything else....
The collapse of the Conservative Party and government into unimaginable chaos is quite fun to watch, I must say.
Pity about the collateral damage, though.
Yep I'm genuinely torn about this.
On the one hand as a leftie it's fun to watch. Actually, it's particularly fun to watch Boris' star fall because of all the tories I've ever encountered he is the biggest turd of the lot. This is nothing to do with Brexit (Leon) - I don't particularly blame Boris for Brexit. There were a whole heap of factors and ultimately it was the British people who narrowly decided to leave and, frankly, the EU didn't exactly help its cause half the time.
No, I derive pleasure from seeing Boris fall because he is an utter shit. The nastiest piece of work to hold high office in my lifetime by a long way.
On the other hand, I am genuinely worried about the current chaotic state of this country. It's really bad for all of us. We desperately need a sure hand on the tiller and even if that's a Conservative I don't always agree with, I'd like to see some semblance of sensible and sound governance restored.
I think the "current chaotic state of the country" is overblown TBH.
But the country wants to move on from the Boris Show. It will be willing Rishi to do well, someone most people seem to rather like. And in pretty well every way (quietly spoken, modest, compact, organised, etc) he is personally the anti-Boris. A bit contrast.
As you say, we all want a semblance of sensible and sound governance. He seems the best bet to provide it.
(What the Tories musn't do is put in someone who is very easy to dislike like Truss or, shudders, Raab)
Answering questions quite well. More reassuring than Boris, that’s for sure. And interestingly distancing himself from the Saville comments
He might actually grow into the role and become a decent PM.
The question is about trust now as we face a cost of living crisis - and Sunak just looks far more comfortable when explaining his world view / reasons for certain policy. I may not agree with them - but no doubt he can he impressive
Painful. Sunak asked again (3rd time) whether the PM should say sorry over the Saville remarks. Sunak repeats "that's for the PM to decide but I'm glad he's clarified today" His clear refusal to row in behind the PM very very telling, and reflects Johnson's diminishing authority
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
Currently, a GE needs a simple majority of MPs, just like the 2019 one did.
However, DACOP should be law within weeks, at which point the calculus changes radically.
The 2019 election needed a simple majority because Parliament passed the Early Parliamentary General Election Act which automatically lapsed once the Election had been held. Would Johnson get a similar act through Parliament this time?
It's more likely than a Commons VONC, I would think.
I don't think either would happen. If Johnson loses his party he will go. He will know it is inevitable at that point. There is simply no way he can survive as PM.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
I thought it was typical Boris, and shrugged my shoulders.
Perhaps you can help
Who is to blame for Saville not being prosecuted?
Did they apologize?
Were they sacked?
Was there sufficient evidence at that time for a prosecution?
I mean, with hindsight, Savile was an evil man who should have spent his entire adult life in a small cell. But was the DPP presented with enough evidence that a conviction looked likely?
And we don't know the answer to that.
My gut - fwiw - is that Starmer would love to have gotten the headlines for successfully locking up a high profile paedophile - especially one who could be characterised as being close to his political opponents. But it may be that the girls involved were not great witnesses (or could be characterised as such), and there was no corroborating evidence.
Should the DPP have forced a prosecution, if conviction looked unlikely? Should he have diverted scarce resources in this way?
Wasn’t the problem largely that none of the alleged victims they had at the time would go to court?
UK Statistics Authority has just said the PM failed to make clear when telling the Commons this week crime was falling that this was only true if fraud and computer misuse were not taken into account. Home Office also used the figures in a misleading way the UKSA says
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
Play it forward: Johnson doesn't resign as PM. HMQ doesn't fire him (50/50 I think, that one). The House unanimously votes no confidence in the form prescribed by FTPA.
The clock ticks on, polls show the Conservative vote <30%, implying a third of the party will lose their seats in the imminent election. After 13 days, JRM, still Leader of the House, timetables a vote of confidence in HM Government, led by a certain B Johnson, in the form prescribed by FTPA. Does the new leader of the Conservative party whip against the motion and guarantee a general election which they will lose, or whip for the motion and try to work out a way to come to terms with the now-endorsed Prime Minister Johnson?
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
Lol
The one thing IN YOUR ENTIRE LIFE that has made you angrier than anything else is when the British prime minister made a clumsy jibe at some boring Labour lawyer about a thing that DID happen under his watch but he was likely not responsible for blah blah
That made you ANGRIER THAN ANYTHING ELSE, EVAH???
GET A GRIP, MAN
And I just don’t believe you were “literally, trembling” over there in New York
What an entirely laughable comment, from beginning to end. Have a brandy
Yeh, it made me furious. I don’t get angry very often.
I know you don’t get it, but that’s because you’re a jaded debauchee.
It’s too early for a brandy, by 2 minutes.
But were you “literally, trembling” as you “felt the buckling of one of the pillars of British democracy”???
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Leon thinks ethics is a county between Kent and Suffolk.
- Cases are flat(ish). R is clustered about 1. R remains lower for the older groups - Admissions down - MV beds down - In hospital down - Deaths down
Thanks Malmesbury. I'm glad we're able to give this less attention nowadays - it's an infinitely healthier position to be in. But I for one still enjoy getting your updates - not least from a point of general interest, but also as a marker point in the day.
No other cabinet minister has the profile and podium access that Rishi Sunak does. How do the other leadership hopefuls carve out a wee moment in the spotlight for themselves? Being the first cabinet minister to resign would do it… https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1489289575361036298
In Number 10 Dougie Smith is the key Tory fixer – the man who knows where the bodies are buried and hardly ever gets mentioned by the press, for some reason. This Boris loyalist is now firmly in the “it has to be Rishi” camp, say insiders. Smith is married to Munira Mirza, who has worked for Johnson for 14 years.
News of the resignation was broken by The Spectator’s James Forsyth, a friend of Mirza. His wife Allegra Stratton worked alongside her in Downing Street.
Just as well we have taken back control from an unaccountable unelected self-serving elite, otherwise we would be in trouble.
The problem is the list of people who *want* the job is getting smaller, if anything. Politics is of less and less interest as a career.
It's rather like the chaps who complain on the Guardian about the small number of people who own lots of the land in this country - it's as much to do with people not wanting to buy it as anything else....
Social media has utterly destroyed the ability to be an MP and have any sense of a life as well. 24 hour news was bad but now all voters have fairly easy and painless methods of hassling you 24/7.
UK Statistics Authority has just said the PM failed to make clear when telling the Commons this week crime was falling that this was only true if fraud and computer misuse were not taken into account. Home Office also used the figures in a misleading way the UKSA says
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
If say MPs picked Remainer, not Borisite Hunt to replace Boris without giving Tory members a vote, I could well see Boris leave and start his own party (as Trump has threatened to do to the GOP in the US).
Boris would take most current Tory voters and members with him (as Trump would also take most of the GOP voters now with him).
However I think members will get a say so that is unlikely and even if they did not MPs would pick Sunak, not Hunt
Painful. Sunak asked again (3rd time) whether the PM should say sorry over the Saville remarks. Sunak repeats "that's for the PM to decide but I'm glad he's clarified today" His clear refusal to row in behind the PM very very telling, and reflects Johnson's diminishing authority
I'm actually quite impressed by the Conservative Party over this. Tells me that there's decency around on the other side which is good to know. I had started to doubt it.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
I thought it was typical Boris, and shrugged my shoulders.
Perhaps you can help
Who is to blame for Saville not being prosecuted?
Did they apologize?
Were they sacked?
In fairness to whoever was nominally responsible, it wasn't like Rotherham, I don't think: it wasn't as if the evidence was there for all to see. I think most people were genuinely shocked when it all came out. Presumably whoever was DPP at the time felt the same. There have been many failures of public prosecution this century: known baddies not pursued, and innocent people hounded unnecessarily. But as far as I remember Savile was neither of those. I may be misremembering.
It is not at all clear that anyone was to blame. It is bloody difficult to convict people of stuff, largely because of our jolly unimprovable world beating impeccably English jury trial system. Just one example: the first thing West was prosecuted for was raping his own children. That trial collapsed, despite it being crystal clear they he was guilty.
But Cookie’s underlying point is sound
If anything should leave anyone “literally, trembling” with anger, it is the Asian grooming scandal WHICH IS STILL GOING ON
Actually agree with you for once
I read your earlier confessional with some interest, and, of course, great sympathy
What happened to you was awful, and I can now see why a hedonistic, self-aggrandizing old git like me, happy to admit to multiple liaisons with younger women, might wind you up, and I am sorry for that. But there is not much I can do about it, this is me. At least I am honest
I feel no need to defend myself, as I feel I have done nothing wrong, but I will offer this story: I was married for four years to a woman 30+ years younger than me. I have never been happier than during that marriage. She says the same. We only split because of the kids thing, I’ve had mine, she wanted her own. We are now divorced, I miss her every day (tho the pain ebbs). We just made each other laugh, constantly, in a way I have never encountered with anyone else, ever. We never argued. Ever. It was uncanny. It was true love, something which I doubted existed until it happened - very late in life, in my case
But I have paid a price for this with the brutal heartbreak that ensued. Which was worse for me than for her (simply because she is so much younger and more resilient).
And now I trot around the world, drinking too much but enjoying the sunshine, I do not ever want to fall in love like that again (I doubt it is even possible). The pain of loss is too fierce
- Cases are flat(ish). R is clustered about 1. R remains lower for the older groups - Admissions down - MV beds down - In hospital down - Deaths down
Thanks Malmesbury. I'm glad we're able to give this less attention nowadays - it's an infinitely healthier position to be in. But I for one still enjoy getting your updates - not least from a point of general interest, but also as a marker point in the day.
Thank you - I'm just disappointed that no one has remarked on the picture I use. A great character, built by a great actor - much against type, in a great film.
You gotta ask: in choosing today, are team Sunak looking at turnout data in Sarfend which they think will help precipitate the Borapocalypse? Private polling? Hints about postals?
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
If say MPs picked Remainer, not Borisite Hunt to replace Boris without giving Tory members a vote, I could well see Boris leave and start his own party (as Trump has threatened to do to the GOP in the US).
Boris would take most current Tory voters and members with him (as Trump would also take most of the GOP voters now with him).
However I think members will get a say so that is unlikely and even if they did not MPs would pick Sunak, not Hunt
Boris certainly wouldn't take most Tory voters with him. Most are loyal Conservatives. The ones that Boris had a personal following have already left to Labour since Boris shat the bed.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
If say MPs picked Remainer, not Borisite Hunt to replace Boris without giving Tory members a vote, I could well see Boris leave and start his own party (as Trump has threatened to do to the GOP in the US).
Boris would take most current Tory voters and members with him (as Trump would also take most of the GOP voters now with him).
However I think members will get a say so that is unlikely and even if they did not MPs would pick Sunak, not Hunt
Why would he do that?
He’s not interested in policy and has no great goal to achieve; he wanted to sit in the big chair, and get his photo on the Downing Street staircase, and he has. He can go off and make some £££ and not have to worry about voters or standards of behaviour ever again.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
Lol
The one thing IN YOUR ENTIRE LIFE that has made you angrier than anything else is when the British prime minister made a clumsy jibe at some boring Labour lawyer about a thing that DID happen under his watch but he was likely not responsible for blah blah
That made you ANGRIER THAN ANYTHING ELSE, EVAH???
GET A GRIP, MAN
And I just don’t believe you were “literally, trembling” over there in New York
What an entirely laughable comment, from beginning to end. Have a brandy
Yeh, it made me furious. I don’t get angry very often.
I know you don’t get it, but that’s because you’re a jaded debauchee.
It’s too early for a brandy, by 2 minutes.
But were you “literally, trembling” as you “felt the buckling of one of the pillars of British democracy”???
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
One shouldn't sneer at strong ethical values even if one doesn't share them.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
I thought it was typical Boris, and shrugged my shoulders.
Perhaps you can help
Who is to blame for Saville not being prosecuted?
Did they apologize?
Were they sacked?
In fairness to whoever was nominally responsible, it wasn't like Rotherham, I don't think: it wasn't as if the evidence was there for all to see. I think most people were genuinely shocked when it all came out. Presumably whoever was DPP at the time felt the same. There have been many failures of public prosecution this century: known baddies not pursued, and innocent people hounded unnecessarily. But as far as I remember Savile was neither of those. I may be misremembering.
It is not at all clear that anyone was to blame. It is bloody difficult to convict people of stuff, largely because of our jolly unimprovable world beating impeccably English jury trial system. Just one example: the first thing West was prosecuted for was raping his own children. That trial collapsed, despite it being crystal clear they he was guilty.
But Cookie’s underlying point is sound
If anything should leave anyone “literally, trembling” with anger, it is the Asian grooming scandal WHICH IS STILL GOING ON
Actually agree with you for once
I read your earlier confessional with some interest, and, of course, great sympathy
What happened to you was awful, and I can now see why a hedonistic, self-aggrandizing old git like me, happy to admit to multiple liaisons with younger women, might wind you up, and I am sorry for that. But there is not much I can do about it, this is me. At least I am honest
I feel no need to defend myself, as I feel I have done nothing wrong, but I will offer this story: I was married for four years to a woman 30+ years younger than me. I have never been happier than during that marriage. She says the same. We only split because of the kids thing, I’ve had mine, she wanted her own. We are now divorced, I miss her every day (tho the pain ebbs). We just made each other laugh, constantly, in a way I have never encountered with anyone else, ever. We never argued. Ever. It was uncanny. It was true love, something which I doubted existed until it happened - very late in life, in my case
But I have paid a price for this with the brutal heartbreak that ensued. Which was worse for me than for her (simply because she is so much younger and more resilient).
And now I trot around the world, drinking too much but enjoying the sunshine, I do not ever want to fall in love like that again (I doubt it is even possible). The pain of loss is too fierce
Thank you for this heartfelt response and I apologise for being so personal. You see where I was coming from (thank you) but that doesn't justify me tarring you with the same brush and I was unacceptably rude. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry too for your heartbreak.
Is it really better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all? From the happiness you mention I guess you will say 'yes'? But that pain sounds horribly raw.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
I thought it was typical Boris, and shrugged my shoulders.
Perhaps you can help
Who is to blame for Saville not being prosecuted?
Did they apologize?
Were they sacked?
Was there sufficient evidence at that time for a prosecution?
I mean, with hindsight, Savile was an evil man who should have spent his entire adult life in a small cell. But was the DPP presented with enough evidence that a conviction looked likely?
And we don't know the answer to that.
My gut - fwiw - is that Starmer would love to have gotten the headlines for successfully locking up a high profile paedophile - especially one who could be characterised as being close to his political opponents. But it may be that the girls involved were not great witnesses (or could be characterised as such), and there was no corroborating evidence.
Should the DPP have forced a prosecution, if conviction looked unlikely? Should he have diverted scarce resources in this way?
Thanks to Covid, Truss has not been touring the studios defending the smear all week. She could still just about pull off a principled resignation
Or she could be doing a John Major tribute act and letting the high profile rival wield the dagger while she is 'at the dentist' / 'having to isolate with Covid' and just shows up once theres a vote on
BREAKING: Northern Ireland's first minister Paul Givan has quit.
Good. Should get the hardline Unionist vote back behind the DUP from the TUV
Yes one thing we have learned from the last few years is that the DUP are master political strategists
76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters in NI wanted the DUP to withdraw from the Stormont Executive either now or within the next 3 months until the NI Protocol is scrapped.
Donaldson's Party by doing this where Foster failed to do it will bring back TUV voters to the DUP as Boris brought back Brexit Party voters to the Tories after May failed to deliver Brexit
And what about the other 75% of Northern Irish voters? Do they get a say, or should Northern Ireland be run solely for around half of Unionists?
Or maybe, do you think, we should try and find a solution that is broadly acceptable to the majority of people in Northern Ireland?
More than half, 58% of Unionist voters want to withdraw from the Stormont executive unless the NI Protocol is scrapped now or in the next 3 months. 5% would withdraw after the election if no change.
A further 34% also want the NI protocol scrapped or amended but the DUP to stay in the NI executive (mostly UUP voters).
Removing the Irish Sea border respects Unionist opinion, as long as there is still no hard border in Ireland that also respects Nationalist and Alliance voters too
Here's the thing:
The Northern Irish protocol is a transitionary measure, until the Trusted Trader Programme (TTP) is up and running.
Back in the first half of 2021, there was some serious concern that the EU was simply going to not deliver on the TPP, and at the time invoking Article 16 was a sensible and proportional response.
The UK indicated they would do so, and the EU suddenly got their arse into gear and submitted their proposals for the TPP. The report to the Northern Ireland committee of the House of Commons is that development of the TPP is now progressing as planned with all parties engaged.
The EU has not reneged on its treaty commitments, and we are now heading towards the end situation envisaged in the original agreement.
Withdrawing from the Protocol when the other party is not in breach would be a serious act of bad faith by the UK and an incredibly odd one too, give it's going to disappear in the relatively short term.
It’s worth noting that whatever the question about Britain’s state, Rishi is not the answer.
He’s a fully paid up Treasury stooge who thinks levelling up is a waste of time.
But he’s more impressive than Boris. If I was Keir I’d be a bit concerned.
there isn't any Tory that is going to spend money levelling up - that's the problem. It's going to take a Labour party willing to look at Treasury models and destroy the appalling foundations they are built on.
Unfortunately the people who understand that earn £100,000+ way more than the Treasury fools you currently use the models and don't see the flaws or missing factors.
Hint for anyone reading infrastructure sometimes needs to be built because it solves problems.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
If say MPs picked Remainer, not Borisite Hunt to replace Boris without giving Tory members a vote, I could well see Boris leave and start his own party (as Trump has threatened to do to the GOP in the US).
Boris would take most current Tory voters and members with him (as Trump would also take most of the GOP voters now with him).
However I think members will get a say so that is unlikely and even if they did not MPs would pick Sunak, not Hunt
Why would he do that?
He’s not interested in policy and has no great goal to achieve; he wanted to sit in the big chair, and get his photo on the Downing Street staircase, and he has. He can go off and make some £££ and not have to worry about voters or standards of behaviour ever again.
He wants to win at being PM for longer than Cameron. He'll cling on in every way he can, and then sit on the opposition backbenches causing trouble for his successor, gathering a crowd of acolytes who believe he's the party's only way back to power.
In Number 10 Dougie Smith is the key Tory fixer – the man who knows where the bodies are buried and hardly ever gets mentioned by the press, for some reason. This Boris loyalist is now firmly in the “it has to be Rishi” camp, say insiders. Smith is married to Munira Mirza, who has worked for Johnson for 14 years.
News of the resignation was broken by The Spectator’s James Forsyth, a friend of Mirza. His wife Allegra Stratton worked alongside her in Downing Street.
Just as well we have taken back control from an unaccountable unelected self-serving elite, otherwise we would be in trouble.
The problem is the list of people who *want* the job is getting smaller, if anything. Politics is of less and less interest as a career.
It's rather like the chaps who complain on the Guardian about the small number of people who own lots of the land in this country - it's as much to do with people not wanting to buy it as anything else....
Social media has utterly destroyed the ability to be an MP and have any sense of a life as well. 24 hour news was bad but now all voters have fairly easy and painless methods of hassling you 24/7.
It’s easy to watch from afar and critisise the lack of quality among MPs - but there’s an increasingly small number of people willing to put themselves up for such public scrutiny, especially given that most of them can lead equally lucrative and private lives away from the spotlight.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Only way that happens is if MPs can not only VONC Boris and over 50% of them vote to remove him but then ensure a Hunt and Sunak final 2 which could see Hunt pull out.
If Truss got to the final 2 she would certainly not pull out but make sure it went to the membership as she knows she could then win it with the members and become PM.
Truss hardline with the EU on Art 16 and backing the DUP in removing the Irish Sea border checks was clear red meat to the party base, following her status as a committed Brexiteer now and her lack of enthusiasm for the NI rise (unlike Sunak) and her reluctance to support Covid restrictions
And if the Tory party splits in two, Johnsonians vs the rest, what does your rule book say about that?
Most of the party would go with Johnson, certainly most of the membership and remaining Tory voters. The rest would be lucky to beat the LDs at the next general election
OK.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
If say MPs picked Remainer, not Borisite Hunt to replace Boris without giving Tory members a vote, I could well see Boris leave and start his own party (as Trump has threatened to do to the GOP in the US).
Boris would take most current Tory voters and members with him (as Trump would also take most of the GOP voters now with him).
However I think members will get a say so that is unlikely and even if they did not MPs would pick Sunak, not Hunt
Why would he do that?
He’s not interested in policy and has no great goal to achieve; he wanted to sit in the big chair, and get his photo on the Downing Street staircase, and he has. He can go off and make some £££ and not have to worry about voters or standards of behaviour ever again.
He wants to win at being PM for longer than Cameron. He'll cling on in every way he can, and then sit on the opposition backbenches causing trouble for his successor, gathering a crowd of acolytes who believe he's the party's only way back to power.
Alistair Carmichael, Lib Dem home affairs spokesman who triggered the UK stats authority investigation, calls on Boris Johnson to "come before Parliament to apologise for his latest lie and set the record straight.”
Politicians now routinely referring to BoZo as a liar everywhere except on the floor of the house
Play it forward: Johnson doesn't resign as PM. HMQ doesn't fire him (50/50 I think, that one). The House unanimously votes no confidence in the form prescribed by FTPA.
The clock ticks on, polls show the Conservative vote (sub)30%, implying a third of the party will lose their seats in the imminent election. After 13 days, JRM, still Leader of the House, timetables a vote of confidence in HM Government, led by a certain B Johnson, in the form prescribed by FTPA. Does the new leader of the Conservative party whip against the motion and guarantee a general election which they will lose, or whip for the motion and try to work out a way to come to terms with the now-endorsed Prime Minister Johnson?
I'm more than 50:50 sure that if Boris loses a party VONC and a new leader, even an interim one, is selected, HMQ will be doing the old football manager "mutual consent" move: "resign, or I'll sack you".
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
Lol
The one thing IN YOUR ENTIRE LIFE that has made you angrier than anything else is when the British prime minister made a clumsy jibe at some boring Labour lawyer about a thing that DID happen under his watch but he was likely not responsible for blah blah
That made you ANGRIER THAN ANYTHING ELSE, EVAH???
GET A GRIP, MAN
And I just don’t believe you were “literally, trembling” over there in New York
What an entirely laughable comment, from beginning to end. Have a brandy
Yeh, it made me furious. I don’t get angry very often.
I know you don’t get it, but that’s because you’re a jaded debauchee.
It’s too early for a brandy, by 2 minutes.
But were you “literally, trembling” as you “felt the buckling of one of the pillars of British democracy”???
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Leon thinks ethics is a county between Kent and Suffolk.
- Cases are flat(ish). R is clustered about 1. R remains lower for the older groups - Admissions down - MV beds down - In hospital down - Deaths down
Thanks Malmesbury. I'm glad we're able to give this less attention nowadays - it's an infinitely healthier position to be in. But I for one still enjoy getting your updates - not least from a point of general interest, but also as a marker point in the day.
Thank you - I'm just disappointed that no one has remarked on the picture I use. A great character, built by a great actor - much against type, in a great film.
I had no idea what you were talking about and went and re-looked. Sorry to report, but in my thread it just comes up as a little 5mm/5mm icon and the word 'image'.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He won't leave with dignity. He doesn't do dignity.
I think he needs to be offered a new job.
And I was wondering: could he perhaps take over from Ursula van der Leyen? While traditionally the Commission President has been from an EU member, I doubt there is any legal need for it.
Boris is also used to working in Brussels, and did a good job (unlike UvdL) with vaccines.
It could be sold to EU as potentially resulting - long-term - in the UK rejoining (or at the very least having someone pissing outside the tend). And it could be sold in the UK as having someone in Brussels who understands our needs.
And from BJ's point of view, it would mean that he was the first Brit to be both Prime Minister and President.
I agree with the general thrust of this - I was going to post a few days ago that the way to get him out was offer some sort of cushy sinecure somewhere. I thought making him ambassador to the USA might work (for him and Carrie) or perhaps France. You attract more flies with honey etc.
In terms of Boris taking Tory voters with him, in a hypothetical scenario, while he still has plenty of support, how many would actually jump ship for Corbyn rather than stick with Starmer for example?
Painful. Sunak asked again (3rd time) whether the PM should say sorry over the Saville remarks. Sunak repeats "that's for the PM to decide but I'm glad he's clarified today" His clear refusal to row in behind the PM very very telling, and reflects Johnson's diminishing authority
I'm actually quite impressed by the Conservative Party over this. Tells me that there's decency around on the other side which is good to know. I had started to doubt it.
Just as Labour is recovering from Corbyn, the Conservatives will recover from Johnson.
This is incredibly conflicting for a good centre-leftie like myself.
Dominic Cummings, the man who screwed up schools beyond measure? Resigned/fired and has been knifing Boris ever since.
David Frost, the self-satisfied Mr Brexit? Resigned and knifed Boris on the way out.
Munira Mirza, the cynical author of the "war on woke"? Resigned and knifed Boris today.
Boris Johnson, leader of a generally loathsome government who yet has been the prime mover behind something I particularly care about (Dutch-style safe cycle tracks).
Help me, who am I supposed to be rooting for here?
They are all utter scum. The next Tory PM will be less of a bloated narcissistic liar, but even more objectionable in policy terms. Hurrah!
Make yourself a negroni, keep a glass of hemlock handy, and enjoy the show. There's far more debasing entertainment to come.
Play it forward: Johnson doesn't resign as PM. HMQ doesn't fire him (50/50 I think, that one). The House unanimously votes no confidence in the form prescribed by FTPA.
The clock ticks on, polls show the Conservative vote (sub)30%, implying a third of the party will lose their seats in the imminent election. After 13 days, JRM, still Leader of the House, timetables a vote of confidence in HM Government, led by a certain B Johnson, in the form prescribed by FTPA. Does the new leader of the Conservative party whip against the motion and guarantee a general election which they will lose, or whip for the motion and try to work out a way to come to terms with the now-endorsed Prime Minister Johnson?
I'm more than 50:50 sure that if Boris loses a party VONC and a new leader, even an interim one, is selected, HMQ will be doing the old football manager "mutual consent" move: "resign, or I'll sack you".
But it's an interesting hypothetical.
I'd have agreed with you before the prorogation row, but accepting or rejecting the PM's request then was a test of the willingness of the crown to act as a guarantor of constitutional propriety, and we saw how that went. So now I think it's a coin toss on how it would go where the resignation of a PM who's lost the confidence of the House is concerned.
I think Patel's been taking geography lessons from Raab....."Push back" can work if you've got huge swathes of international water between you and your neighbours - the trouble for Patel is there is no international water on the route the Channel migrants are taking. It's either British or French.
Painful. Sunak asked again (3rd time) whether the PM should say sorry over the Saville remarks. Sunak repeats "that's for the PM to decide but I'm glad he's clarified today" His clear refusal to row in behind the PM very very telling, and reflects Johnson's diminishing authority
I'm actually quite impressed by the Conservative Party over this. Tells me that there's decency around on the other side which is good to know. I had started to doubt it.
I am the opposite. What is striking is that so many Conservatives are prepared to make mealy mouthed apologies for Johnson even now. It doesn't impress me at all that a large chunk of the party is prepared to doubling down in a style resembling the GOP kowtowing to Trump. And it also must be remembered that there's a succession crisis going on, such that those who do take issue with Johnson can be seen as using the Saville controversy as a coded way of advancing the interests of who they are allied with and as another direction from which to stick the knife in, rather than necessarily acting out of a sense of moral decency.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
I thought it was typical Boris, and shrugged my shoulders.
Perhaps you can help
Who is to blame for Saville not being prosecuted?
Did they apologize?
Were they sacked?
In fairness to whoever was nominally responsible, it wasn't like Rotherham, I don't think: it wasn't as if the evidence was there for all to see. I think most people were genuinely shocked when it all came out. Presumably whoever was DPP at the time felt the same. There have been many failures of public prosecution this century: known baddies not pursued, and innocent people hounded unnecessarily. But as far as I remember Savile was neither of those. I may be misremembering.
It is not at all clear that anyone was to blame. It is bloody difficult to convict people of stuff, largely because of our jolly unimprovable world beating impeccably English jury trial system. Just one example: the first thing West was prosecuted for was raping his own children. That trial collapsed, despite it being crystal clear they he was guilty.
But Cookie’s underlying point is sound
If anything should leave anyone “literally, trembling” with anger, it is the Asian grooming scandal WHICH IS STILL GOING ON
Actually agree with you for once
I read your earlier confessional with some interest, and, of course, great sympathy
What happened to you was awful, and I can now see why a hedonistic, self-aggrandizing old git like me, happy to admit to multiple liaisons with younger women, might wind you up, and I am sorry for that. But there is not much I can do about it, this is me. At least I am honest
I feel no need to defend myself, as I feel I have done nothing wrong, but I will offer this story: I was married for four years to a woman 30+ years younger than me. I have never been happier than during that marriage. She says the same. We only split because of the kids thing, I’ve had mine, she wanted her own. We are now divorced, I miss her every day (tho the pain ebbs). We just made each other laugh, constantly, in a way I have never encountered with anyone else, ever. We never argued. Ever. It was uncanny. It was true love, something which I doubted existed until it happened - very late in life, in my case
But I have paid a price for this with the brutal heartbreak that ensued. Which was worse for me than for her (simply because she is so much younger and more resilient).
And now I trot around the world, drinking too much but enjoying the sunshine, I do not ever want to fall in love like that again (I doubt it is even possible). The pain of loss is too fierce
Thank you for this heartfelt response and I apologise for being so personal. You see where I was coming from (thank you) but that doesn't justify me tarring you with the same brush and I was unacceptably rude. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry too for your heartbreak.
Is it really better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all? From the happiness you mention I guess you will say 'yes'? But that pain sounds horribly raw.
The pain was horrifically raw. The problem with true love (and I believe this is what I encountered and I believe it is rare, so I was “lucky”) is that it always ends.
I came close to suicide several times (it didn’t help that it coincided with lockdowns 2 and 3, my god they were bad). I could tell some horror stories but you get the picture
Yes I am glad I experienced it but no, not again, thanks. I’d quite like to meet someone nice a bit nearer my age now, and have a pleasant little house in the Algarve sun and a flat in London. That’ll do me. I’ve had a magnificently varied and lucky life, I’d quite like to beat @Gardenwalker ‘s actuarial predictions and make it to my mid 70s, relatively intact
I am, by the way, not whitewashing my younger life. I was a selfish amoral wanker as a young man, for much of the time. I got away with it by being funny and occasionally charming, but I wince when I look back,. Ouch.
Agenbite of inwit, as Joyce said
Anyway, I am glad we are on peaceable terms. Please stay for the hit-and-miss cooking tips.
The collapse of the Conservative Party and government into unimaginable chaos is quite fun to watch, I must say.
Pity about the collateral damage, though.
Yep I'm genuinely torn about this.
On the one hand as a leftie it's fun to watch. Actually, it's particularly fun to watch Boris' star fall because of all the tories I've ever encountered he is the biggest turd of the lot. This is nothing to do with Brexit (Leon) - I don't particularly blame Boris for Brexit. There were a whole heap of factors and ultimately it was the British people who narrowly decided to leave and, frankly, the EU didn't exactly help its cause half the time.
No, I derive pleasure from seeing Boris fall because he is an utter shit. The nastiest piece of work to hold high office in my lifetime by a long way.
On the other hand, I am genuinely worried about the current chaotic state of this country. It's really bad for all of us. We desperately need a sure hand on the tiller and even if that's a Conservative I don't always agree with, I'd like to see some semblance of sensible and sound governance restored.
I think the "current chaotic state of the country" is overblown TBH.
But the country wants to move on from the Boris Show. It will be willing Rishi to do well, someone most people seem to rather like. And in pretty well every way (quietly spoken, modest, compact, organised, etc) he is personally the anti-Boris. A bit contrast.
As you say, we all want a semblance of sensible and sound governance. He seems the best bet to provide it.
(What the Tories musn't do is put in someone who is very easy to dislike like Truss or, shudders, Raab)
Truss is essentially lightweight, despite her many good qualities. Raab is indeed easy to dislike, not terrifically smart and may have problems holding his seat.
Hunt is the obvious alternative but I assume a Remainer would be unacceptable.
It’s worth noting that whatever the question about Britain’s state, Rishi is not the answer.
He’s a fully paid up Treasury stooge who thinks levelling up is a waste of time.
But he’s more impressive than Boris. If I was Keir I’d be a bit concerned.
there isn't any Tory that is going to spend money levelling up - that's the problem. It's going to take a Labour party willing to look at Treasury models and destroy the appalling foundations they are built on.
Unfortunately the people who understand that earn £100,000+ way more than the Treasury fools you currently use the models and don't see the flaws or missing factors.
Hint for anyone reading infrastructure sometimes needs to be built because it solves problems.
Funny how we agree violently on this but (IIRC) disagree equally violently on immigration.
You gotta ask: in choosing today, are team Sunak looking at turnout data in Sarfend which they think will help precipitate the Borapocalypse? Private polling? Hints about postals?
I feel sorry for him - there is no one more loyal to the big man than Sunak, but no one believes him.
The collapse of the Conservative Party and government into unimaginable chaos is quite fun to watch, I must say.
Pity about the collateral damage, though.
Yep I'm genuinely torn about this.
On the one hand as a leftie it's fun to watch. Actually, it's particularly fun to watch Boris' star fall because of all the tories I've ever encountered he is the biggest turd of the lot. This is nothing to do with Brexit (Leon) - I don't particularly blame Boris for Brexit. There were a whole heap of factors and ultimately it was the British people who narrowly decided to leave and, frankly, the EU didn't exactly help its cause half the time.
No, I derive pleasure from seeing Boris fall because he is an utter shit. The nastiest piece of work to hold high office in my lifetime by a long way.
On the other hand, I am genuinely worried about the current chaotic state of this country. It's really bad for all of us. We desperately need a sure hand on the tiller and even if that's a Conservative I don't always agree with, I'd like to see some semblance of sensible and sound governance restored.
I think the "current chaotic state of the country" is overblown TBH.
But the country wants to move on from the Boris Show. It will be willing Rishi to do well, someone most people seem to rather like. And in pretty well every way (quietly spoken, modest, compact, organised, etc) he is personally the anti-Boris. A bit contrast.
As you say, we all want a semblance of sensible and sound governance. He seems the best bet to provide it.
(What the Tories musn't do is put in someone who is very easy to dislike like Truss or, shudders, Raab)
Truss is essentially lightweight, despite her many good qualities. Raab is indeed easy to dislike, not terrifically smart and may have problems holding his seat.
Hunt is the obvious alternative but I assume a Remainer would be unacceptable.
Play it forward: Johnson doesn't resign as PM. HMQ doesn't fire him (50/50 I think, that one). The House unanimously votes no confidence in the form prescribed by FTPA.
The clock ticks on, polls show the Conservative vote (sub)30%, implying a third of the party will lose their seats in the imminent election. After 13 days, JRM, still Leader of the House, timetables a vote of confidence in HM Government, led by a certain B Johnson, in the form prescribed by FTPA. Does the new leader of the Conservative party whip against the motion and guarantee a general election which they will lose, or whip for the motion and try to work out a way to come to terms with the now-endorsed Prime Minister Johnson?
I'm more than 50:50 sure that if Boris loses a party VONC and a new leader, even an interim one, is selected, HMQ will be doing the old football manager "mutual consent" move: "resign, or I'll sack you".
But it's an interesting hypothetical.
I'd have agreed with you before the prorogation row, but accepting or rejecting the PM's request then was a test of the willingness of the crown to act as a guarantor of constitutional propriety, and we saw how that went. So now I think it's a coin toss on how it would go where the resignation of a PM who's lost the confidence of the House is concerned.
The "prorogation row" was massively overblown, though.
It’s worth noting that whatever the question about Britain’s state, Rishi is not the answer.
He’s a fully paid up Treasury stooge who thinks levelling up is a waste of time.
But he’s more impressive than Boris. If I was Keir I’d be a bit concerned.
there isn't any Tory that is going to spend money levelling up - that's the problem. It's going to take a Labour party willing to look at Treasury models and destroy the appalling foundations they are built on.
Unfortunately the people who understand that earn £100,000+ way more than the Treasury fools you currently use the models and don't see the flaws or missing factors.
Hint for anyone reading infrastructure sometimes needs to be built because it solves problems.
Funny how we agree violently on this but (IIRC) disagree equally violently on immigration.
Don't think I've ever commented on immigration that much.
Were I to do so my only comment would be you allow skilled workers into the country (using a sane minimum pay level well above the average wage) and ensure that you don't allow unskilled / low paid workers in.
Sadly we can't use the tricks other European countries could use (native language tests) because everyone speaks English better than you typical English native.
Comments
Just distanced himself from the PM over his smear of Starmer over Savile. "It's a question for the prime minister rather than me" he tells @Peston
About as far as he could go without resigning?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1489286123096616966?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
It's from the same stable as 'recollections may vary' - exuberantly understated and we know exactly what he means.
Rishi is very, very good at choosing his words.
I’m just providing the actuarial view.
Just distanced himself from the PM over his smear of Starmer over Savile. "It's a question for the prime minister rather than me" he tells @Peston
About as far as he could go without resigning?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1489286123096616966
Russia has withdrawn the press credentials of all Deutsche Welle staff and is shutting down the organization's office in Moscow
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1489233197254729728
Et tu Brute
In Number 10 Dougie Smith is the key Tory fixer – the man who knows where the bodies are buried and hardly ever gets mentioned by the press, for some reason. This Boris loyalist is now firmly in the “it has to be Rishi” camp, say insiders. Smith is married to Munira Mirza, who has worked for Johnson for 14 years.
News of the resignation was broken by The Spectator’s James Forsyth, a friend of Mirza. His wife Allegra Stratton worked alongside her in Downing Street.
- Cases are flat(ish). R is clustered about 1. R remains lower for the older groups
- Admissions down
- MV beds down
- In hospital down
- Deaths down
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1489275600762253312?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
Answering questions quite well. More reassuring than Boris, that’s for sure. And interestingly distancing himself from the Saville comments
I think the Board generally might be over-interpreting this. The Savile slur was bad but it wasn't a massive departure from Johnson. I wasn't as shocked as some others. And I doubt it's the real reason for Mirza jacking her job in. She wasn't influential and her departure isn't such a massive deal. It's interesting and important but it's not imo something to bring the house down.
I still give Johnson a decent outside chance of surviving to the GE and winning it if he does. What would change my assessment is if the public - via polls and/or the local elections - make it clear to Tory MPs that they need to ditch him if they want to avoid a mass loss of seats and a Labour government.
So, Johnson has just lost a VoNC and is no longer leader of the Conservative Party. Other than Nadine Dorries and JRM, which MP says 'fuck it, let's quit the Conservatives and start a rival party'?
It simply wouldn't happen.
In the last Ukrainian war, they found that they had developers in Moscow. And QA being done in Kyiv.
That led to some interesting projects meetings....
- "SeanT"
- "Strong ethical values"
in the same sentence. Something kept going wrong - bit like magnets with poles opposing each other.
...all while his presumed closest rival to takeover is stuck in Covid quarantine. Doubly convenient.
https://twitter.com/benrathe/status/1489284850783772677
https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/1489287690415706118
No reason party members should not get to choose the PM if their party has a majority in the Commons and the PM is changed midterm. MPs in any case nominate the candidates and in the Tory party select the final 2 the members pick from
It's rather like the chaps who complain on the Guardian about the small number of people who own lots of the land in this country - it's as much to do with people not wanting to buy it as anything else....
But the country wants to move on from the Boris Show. It will be willing Rishi to do well, someone most people seem to rather like. And in pretty well every way (quietly spoken, modest, compact, organised, etc) he is personally the anti-Boris. A bit contrast.
As you say, we all want a semblance of sensible and sound governance. He seems the best bet to provide it.
(What the Tories musn't do is put in someone who is very easy to dislike like Truss or, shudders, Raab)
Dan Walsh
@danofbingley
Replying to
@JayMitchinson
I'm sure Rishi would prefer a contest now before people notice their take home pay going down
Come April Rishi's chances are gone forever. If he is in power before then someone else will carry the can (probably Sajid)
His clear refusal to row in behind the PM very very telling, and reflects Johnson's diminishing authority
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1489288916503076867?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
Nows your moment, find a flicker of moral courage & 'push what is falling'
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1489263223790465027
https://twitter.com/thequentinletts/status/1489289232300625921
Home Office also used the figures in a misleading way the UKSA says
https://twitter.com/BBCTomSymonds/status/1489286075277266950?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
The clock ticks on, polls show the Conservative vote <30%, implying a third of the party will lose their seats in the imminent election. After 13 days, JRM, still Leader of the House, timetables a vote of confidence in HM Government, led by a certain B Johnson, in the form prescribed by FTPA. Does the new leader of the Conservative party whip against the motion and guarantee a general election which they will lose, or whip for the motion and try to work out a way to come to terms with the now-endorsed Prime Minister Johnson?
I'm glad we're able to give this less attention nowadays - it's an infinitely healthier position to be in. But I for one still enjoy getting your updates - not least from a point of general interest, but also as a marker point in the day.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1489289551092887552
No other cabinet minister has the profile and podium access that Rishi Sunak does. How do the other leadership hopefuls carve out a wee moment in the spotlight for themselves? Being the first cabinet minister to resign would do it…
https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1489289575361036298
It’s pathological. He has a mental disorder.
Boris would take most current Tory voters and members with him (as Trump would also take most of the GOP voters now with him).
However I think members will get a say so that is unlikely and even if they did not MPs would pick Sunak, not Hunt
What happened to you was awful, and I can now see why a hedonistic, self-aggrandizing old git like me, happy to admit to multiple liaisons with younger women, might wind you up, and I am sorry for that. But there is not much I can do about it, this is me. At least I am honest
I feel no need to defend myself, as I feel I have done nothing wrong, but I will offer this story: I was married for four years to a woman 30+ years younger than me. I have never been happier than during that marriage. She says the same. We only split because of the kids thing, I’ve had mine, she wanted her own. We are now divorced, I miss her every day (tho the pain ebbs). We just made each other laugh, constantly, in a way I have never encountered with anyone else, ever. We never argued. Ever. It was uncanny. It was true love, something which I doubted existed until it happened - very late in life, in my case
But I have paid a price for this with the brutal heartbreak that ensued. Which was worse for me than for her (simply because she is so much younger and more resilient).
And now I trot around the world, drinking too much but enjoying the sunshine, I do not ever want to fall in love like that again (I doubt it is even possible). The pain of loss is too fierce
You gotta ask: in choosing today, are team Sunak looking at turnout data in Sarfend which they think will help precipitate the Borapocalypse? Private polling? Hints about postals?
He’s a fully paid up Treasury stooge who thinks levelling up is a waste of time.
But he’s more impressive than Boris. If I was Keir I’d be a bit concerned.
Very funny, nonetheless!
'He's good isn't he'
I think it was good not only the way he answered but the number of questions invited
Definite audition
He’s not interested in policy and has no great goal to achieve; he wanted to sit in the big chair, and get his photo on the Downing Street staircase, and he has. He can go off and make some £££ and not have to worry about voters or standards of behaviour ever again.
I'm sorry too for your heartbreak.
Is it really better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all? From the happiness you mention I guess you will say 'yes'? But that pain sounds horribly raw.
The Northern Irish protocol is a transitionary measure, until the Trusted Trader Programme (TTP) is up and running.
Back in the first half of 2021, there was some serious concern that the EU was simply going to not deliver on the TPP, and at the time invoking Article 16 was a sensible and proportional response.
The UK indicated they would do so, and the EU suddenly got their arse into gear and submitted their proposals for the TPP. The report to the Northern Ireland committee of the House of Commons is that development of the TPP is now progressing as planned with all parties engaged.
The EU has not reneged on its treaty commitments, and we are now heading towards the end situation envisaged in the original agreement.
Withdrawing from the Protocol when the other party is not in breach would be a serious act of bad faith by the UK and an incredibly odd one too, give it's going to disappear in the relatively short term.
Unfortunately the people who understand that earn £100,000+ way more than the Treasury fools you currently use the models and don't see the flaws or missing factors.
Hint for anyone reading infrastructure sometimes needs to be built because it solves problems.
Alistair Carmichael, Lib Dem home affairs spokesman who triggered the UK stats authority investigation, calls on Boris Johnson to "come before Parliament to apologise for his latest lie and set the record straight.”
Politicians now routinely referring to BoZo as a liar everywhere except on the floor of the house
But it's an interesting hypothetical.
Who is it meant to be?
But they still need the 54 letters.
https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1489292602826498051
https://twitter.com/anushkaasthana/status/1489284114897383427
Make yourself a negroni, keep a glass of hemlock handy, and enjoy the show. There's far more debasing entertainment to come.
https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1489289169176346624
I came close to suicide several times (it didn’t help that it coincided with lockdowns 2 and 3, my god they were bad). I could tell some horror stories but you get the picture
Yes I am glad I experienced it but no, not again, thanks. I’d quite like to meet someone nice a bit nearer my age now, and have a pleasant little house in the Algarve sun and a flat in London. That’ll do me. I’ve had a magnificently varied and lucky life, I’d quite like to beat @Gardenwalker ‘s actuarial predictions and make it to my mid 70s, relatively intact
I am, by the way, not whitewashing my younger life. I was a selfish amoral wanker as a young man, for much of the time. I got away with it by being funny and occasionally charming, but I wince when I look back,. Ouch.
Agenbite of inwit, as Joyce said
Anyway, I am glad we are on peaceable terms. Please stay for the hit-and-miss cooking tips.
Hunt is the obvious alternative but I assume a Remainer would be unacceptable.
One No10 official: "Boris will feel more sorrow than Mary did watching Christ on the cross. It’s that level of void left in his life."
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1489275600762253312
Were I to do so my only comment would be you allow skilled workers into the country (using a sane minimum pay level well above the average wage) and ensure that you don't allow unskilled / low paid workers in.
Sadly we can't use the tricks other European countries could use (native language tests) because everyone speaks English better than you typical English native.