I like Andrew a lot so this is no comment on him, but it's not like a ministerial vacancy when this needed to be rushed out. So it is also a message of brutality, and indicative of a No10 operation that says whenever a good colleague is lost 'Next'.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He missed the long covid boat. He shound have deployed that last summer.
Yes, because he'd admit he's been unfit to be PM in at least one crucial sense, for a whole year and more [edit] if he now handed in his jotters.
If he had gone in the summer, he could have claimed, I have been suffering from long COVID, I have good days and bad, I hoped that I would be able to get over it, but after consultation with my doctor they have suggested that high levels of demand placed on any PM is harming any chances of making a full recovery from this appalling illness.
And the thing is I actually believe this has been the case.
Hmm, that's a thought, but it depends which summer you mean. Late 2020 yes, most certainly, late 2021 is pushing it surely.
Summer 2021 still be ok. You can absolutely say I have battled for over a year, as I am sure you have witnessed I have got better at times, then I have a particularly busy or demanding period and I regress. I feel deep empathy with all those suffering in a similar manner...Yadda yadda yadda.
Now if he did say that I think he was probably lying / overplaying it. But 2020, he absolutely wasn't with it at times. Simple softball questions at those press conferences at times couldn't remember what they said 15s ago, forgot their name etc.
But why would he have gone then? A couple of months after May 2021 locals and Hartlepool when his fans thought he was going to live and reign forever, the rest of us feared he would, and the lone voice saying that Hartlepool was the peak and the ride down would be faster than anyone thought, was ridiculed? If he is clinging on now why in the name of God would he have gone then when wallpaper was the worst of his worries?
I am not saying he would, I am saying that's the latest he could have deployed the long covid excuse.
Okay, now I’m really, really confused by this Jimmy Savile story!
Join the club, SKS was head of the CPS when they failed to prosecute Starmer, that is a statement of fact.
But there is little evidence to show that SKS was responsible for the initial decision and you only have to look at his later investigation to see that fact.
That she has served him for so long does make it seem rather odd that the Saville line was what finally was too much, but on the other hand makes the action, regardless of reason, much stronger. It's hard for him to credibly pretend his intent was reasonable when so loyal a person calls it too much.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He missed the long covid boat. He shound have deployed that last summer.
Yes, because he'd admit he's been unfit to be PM in at least one crucial sense, for a whole year and more [edit] if he now handed in his jotters.
If he had gone in the summer, he could have claimed, I have been suffering from long COVID, I have good days and bad, I hoped that I would be able to get over it, but after consultation with my doctor they have suggested that high levels of demand placed on any PM is harming any chances of making a full recovery from this appalling illness.
And the thing is I actually believe this has been the case.
Yes, me too
@MaxPB made a good point on the last thread. The Savile thing looks like classic Crosby, but maybe it was totally mishandled by Boris, because he’s not functioning at even 50% capacity
Because there are some questions to be asked about Starmer’s term as DPP, on various points, but the way Boris did it was blundering oafish and just damn ugly. Making it easy for Starmer to be aggrieved and making Boris look so bad he has had to say sorry 3 days later
This is just crap basic politics, and the old Boris - the funny, campaigning Boris - would not have made these egregious errors
It's not a Crosby thing.
Savile damages the Tories as much as Labour, all those photos of Savile with Thatcher, who gave him a knighthood etc.
Indeed, my point earlier was that lots of people were ascribing it to Crosby but it doesn't feel like a Crosby tactic. It feels like something dreamt up by someone thinking "what would Lynton do?" and completely fucking up.
I also don't buy the idea that Boris was flustered and said it in the heat of the moment. This was such an out of the blue attack on a subject no one in their right mind wants to approach (for reasons you outline) that it had to be calculated by Boris or one of his SPADs. Just someone without any real political antenna.
Crosby would absolutely deploy such tactics, but in a much more crafted way, one that is more aimed at mishandling of trials in the wake of Savile during which time Starmer was in charge.
It wouldn't be blurted out the blue in a PMQs / HoC business though.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He missed the long covid boat. He shound have deployed that last summer.
Yes, because he'd admit he's been unfit to be PM in at least one crucial sense, for a whole year and more [edit] if he now handed in his jotters.
If he had gone in the summer, he could have claimed, I have been suffering from long COVID, I have good days and bad, I hoped that I would be able to get over it, but after consultation with my doctor they have suggested that high levels of demand placed on any PM is harming any chances of making a full recovery from this appalling illness.
And the thing is I actually believe this has been the case.
Yes, me too
@MaxPB made a good point on the last thread. The Savile thing looks like classic Crosby, but maybe it was totally mishandled by Boris, because he’s not functioning at even 50% capacity
Because there are some questions to be asked about Starmer’s term as DPP, on various points, but the way Boris did it was blundering oafish and just damn ugly. Making it easy for Starmer to be aggrieved and making Boris look so bad he has had to say sorry 3 days later
This is just crap basic politics, and the old Boris - the funny, campaigning Boris - would not have made these egregious errors
It's not a Crosby thing.
Savile damages the Tories as much as Labour, all those photos of Savile with Thatcher, who gave him a knighthood etc.
Indeed, my point earlier was that lots of people were ascribing it to Crosby but it doesn't feel like a Crosby tactic. It feels like something dreamt up by someone thinking "what would Lynton do?" and completely fucking up.
I also don't buy the idea that Boris was flustered and said it in the heat of the moment. This was such an out of the blue attack on a subject no one in their right mind wants to approach (for reasons you outline) that it had to be calculated by Boris or one of his SPADs. Just someone without any real political antenna.
I suspect it was a tactic that may have been discussed previously (possibly multiple times) but never used because it didn't fit the narrative.
Then Boris needs in a hurry (i.e. while stood inside the Commons) a reason why he shouldn't resign for allowing the parties to be held and voila it's the first idea that enters his head and leaves his mouth.
Tory insider - 'Munira was Boris’ brain and longest serving adviser. For her to depart at such a difficult time and in such a publicly critical way is simply devastating for the PM. It sends a strong signal to the Tory party that even those closest to the PM have now lost faith' https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1489273558077423616
The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Andrew Griffith MP as an unpaid Parliamentary Secretary (Minister for Policy and Head of the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit) in the Cabinet Office.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He missed the long covid boat. He shound have deployed that last summer.
Yes, because he'd admit he's been unfit to be PM in at least one crucial sense, for a whole year and more [edit] if he now handed in his jotters.
If he had gone in the summer, he could have claimed, I have been suffering from long COVID, I have good days and bad, I hoped that I would be able to get over it, but after consultation with my doctor they have suggested that high levels of demand placed on any PM is harming any chances of making a full recovery from this appalling illness.
And the thing is I actually believe this has been the case.
Yes, me too
@MaxPB made a good point on the last thread. The Savile thing looks like classic Crosby, but maybe it was totally mishandled by Boris, because he’s not functioning at even 50% capacity
Because there are some questions to be asked about Starmer’s term as DPP, on various points, but the way Boris did it was blundering oafish and just damn ugly. Making it easy for Starmer to be aggrieved and making Boris look so bad he has had to say sorry 3 days later
This is just crap basic politics, and the old Boris - the funny, campaigning Boris - would not have made these egregious errors
It's not a Crosby thing.
Savile damages the Tories as much as Labour, all those photos of Savile with Thatcher, who gave him a knighthood etc.
Indeed, my point earlier was that lots of people were ascribing it to Crosby but it doesn't feel like a Crosby tactic. It feels like something dreamt up by someone thinking "what would Lynton do?" and completely fucking up.
I also don't buy the idea that Boris was flustered and said it in the heat of the moment. This was such an out of the blue attack on a subject no one in their right mind wants to approach (for reasons you outline) that it had to be calculated by Boris or one of his SPADs. Just someone without any real political antenna.
One of Sir Lynton's rules are no fucking barnacles.
Compare and contrast this with Sir Michael Fallon's attack on Ed Miliband in the run up to GE2015.
Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back to become Labour leader. Now he is willing to stab the United Kingdom in the back to become prime minister
The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Andrew Griffith MP as an unpaid Parliamentary Secretary (Minister for Policy and Head of the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit) in the Cabinet Office.
Okay, now I’m really, really confused by this Jimmy Savile story!
Join the club, SKS was head of the CPS when they failed to prosecute Starmer, that is a statement of fact.
That would be entirely correct, or entirely incorrect on either interpretation. Either there was an apparent crime and he should have been suspended from prosecuting himself or not as he decided, or there was no crime and he was inherently innocent.
As for Mr Saville, the Conservatives (a) knighted him and (b) headed the administration which increased his status and access to at least one key NHS facility, Broadmoor.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
He should say “I agree with her but I’m currently Chancellor of the Exchequer and we have a fuel and cost of living problem that I’m focussed on night and day and so until I’m told otherwise that’s what I will continue to be and continue to do.
At present my personal opinion of the Prime Minister is secondary to my trying to do the best I can for the country.”
Since we’ve all been keen on our Macbeth metaphors recently, Munira Mirza resigning after a career working for Boris Johnson is a bit like that moment when Macbeth suddenly clocks that a great big wood is moving towards him. https://twitter.com/KateMaltby/status/1489262604904140809
Okay, now I’m really, really confused by this Jimmy Savile story!
Join the club, SKS was head of the CPS when they failed to prosecute Starmer, that is a statement of fact.
I think you mean Savile
But if he was in charge of the CPS, then he was in charge of the CPS.
Cressida Dick hasn’t personally raped anyone, but it doesn’t stop the calls for her to resign when yet another of her officers gets sent down for rape.
Okay, now I’m really, really confused by this Jimmy Savile story!
Join the club, SKS was head of the CPS when they failed to prosecute Starmer, that is a statement of fact.
That would be entirely correct, or entirely incorrect on either interpretation. Either there was an apparent crime and he should have been suspended from prosecuting himself or not as he decided, or there was no crime and he was inherently innocent.
As for Mr Saville, the Conservatives (a) knighted him and (b) headed the administration which increased his status and access to at least one key NHS facility, Broadmoor.
And invited him to Chequers for New Year's Eve. Savile was around for decades. And was close to multiple senior figures. Which is why it is idiotic to go near it.
Cummings made it clear there is another expenses related scandal coming soon so it probably is a timely moment to step away from the bunker and attach your departure to the latest Trumpian excursion. But this lady has been closely associated with the perpetuation of the culture war so may be a little rich for some.
Okay, now I’m really, really confused by this Jimmy Savile story!
Join the club, SKS was head of the CPS when they failed to prosecute Starmer, that is a statement of fact.
I think you mean Savile
But if he was in charge of the CPS, then he was in charge of the CPS.
Cressida Dick hasn’t personally raped anyone, but it doesn’t stop the calls for her to resign when yet another of her officers gets sent down for rape.
[deleted - had forgotten for a moment quite how bad the Met's reputation is]
Have to hold my hand up, genuinely did not think we'd get any letters (or equivalent actions, like an official resigning) over the Starmer attack.
It was positively a QAnon thing.
I know some Tory MPs would never go down that route, not only is it bad morally, as the GOP have found, it ends up eating the moderate wing.
I don't know if the Starmer smear precipitated a letter from my MP to Graham Brady, but it precipitated my email to my MP. It felt like a Trumpian or QAnon moment.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
Tory insider - 'Munira was Boris’ brain and longest serving adviser. For her to depart at such a difficult time and in such a publicly critical way is simply devastating for the PM. It sends a strong signal to the Tory party that even those closest to the PM have now lost faith' https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1489273558077423616
Christ that Tory insider has screwed her future employment prospects by calling her “Boris’ brain”…..
Since we’ve all been keen on our Macbeth metaphors recently, Munira Mirza resigning after a career working for Boris Johnson is a bit like that moment when Macbeth suddenly clocks that a great big wood is moving towards him. https://twitter.com/KateMaltby/status/1489262604904140809
Nah, Macbeth had more awareness than the wonky Clown.
65% of 2015, 2017 and 2019 Conservative voters are still voting for the Tories, 21% undecided.
49% of 2017 and 2019 Conservative voters (but who did not vote Tory in 2015) are still voting for the Tories. 22% are undecided, 10% voting RefUK and 6% back Labour.
36% of 2015 and 2019 Conservative voters (but who did not vote Tory in 2017) are still voting Tory. 37% are undecided and 8% voting Labour and 5% LD.
The ERG will have to move now to remove Boris. Mirza was the ideological driver of Brexit within the PM's staff, she was the ultimate guarantee for them that Boris wouldn't backslide, without her being head of policy I don't see how the ERG will let Boris stay on as leader, they know he's doesn't give a shit either way.
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
Not really a palace coup when the backbenchers are the ones who have been rioting. If movement is happening it is someone trying to jump on a bandwagon. Who is going to be the Gul Dukat?
Mirza is married to Dougie Smith, a former senior Conservative party aide .... She had a son in 2013.[5]
You might want to recheck wikipedia...and edit your post.
And you to Google munira mirza husband. I may look stupid, but I am just bright enough to double source that sort of thing. Especially on a page I myself edited this afternoon.
Another former colleague of PM and Mirza predicts her departure could be start of the end game... 'The apocalypse is preceded by all sorts of things you never expect to happen. The moon turns red and the sun goes black. Munira leaving boris had to be on such a list.' https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1489276009232879619
The ERG will have to move now to remove Boris. Mirza was the ideological driver of Brexit within the PM's staff, she was the ultimate guarantee for them that Boris wouldn't backslide, without her being head of policy I don't see how the ERG will let Boris stay on as leader, they know he's doesn't give a shit either way.
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
The ERG are meaningless in this. The cabinet is where this happens.
The most dignified exit Boris can hope for now is faking his own death
Time to take a canoe into the North sea...
Please no. Some of us have to work out there. Don't contaminate the place like that.
You joke but as a young canoeist canoeing in the sea off Berwick I did capsize and had to swim ashore with the help of a BOAC inflatable jacket circa 1958
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
This is why the FTPA is so shit. The Queen would have refused a dissolution under these circumstances I think if she had retained that power. If sufficient Tory MPs could make it clear there was no need for a GE and an alternative PM would command the house she would not take the advice, nor is she bound to, of an effectively 'resigned' PM.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Boris Johnson's claim that Sir Lynton Crosby is returning to his side was, I hear, a great surprise not just to him (in Australia, where he is staying for family reasons), but everyone in No10 too. Crosby and Johnson talk from time to time on the phone as friends, but that's it. https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1489276943300239362
The SNP pension double-down is both a sign of desperation, and incredibly clever. It’s an utter hoax of course, but Brexit showed that you can fool 52% of the population if you are brazen enough.
It will take at least (checks calendar) 5 and a half years for the lies to catch up with you, but hey who cares about tomorrow?
The BoE announcement is tragic. Some - not all of course, is again down to Brexit. In 2016 the UK started on a course of fantasy economics and such projects never prosper. So much for the roaring 20s. The UK has - in a very short time - found itself in a high tax, low growth, stagnant wages trap. History demonstrates that such things tend to destabilise society and have all sorts of nasty knock-on effects.
The energy loans thing is a disaster. Better to take the hit now I would have thought. Instead, it’s going to drag on and on. It’s open goal after open goal for Labour.
Munira’s letter is very interesting. For a long-term loyalist, it doesn’t read very loyal. Perhaps she has already secured the next gig with Boris’s replacement.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
Boris Johnson's claim that Sir Lynton Crosby is returning to his side was, I hear, a great surprise not just to him (in Australia, where he is staying for family reasons), but everyone in No10 too. Crosby and Johnson talk from time to time on the phone as friends, but that's it. https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1489276943300239362
The ERG will have to move now to remove Boris. Mirza was the ideological driver of Brexit within the PM's staff, she was the ultimate guarantee for them that Boris wouldn't backslide, without her being head of policy I don't see how the ERG will let Boris stay on as leader, they know he's doesn't give a shit either way.
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
The ERG are meaningless in this. The cabinet is where this happens.
The ERG can get the letters to 54 tonight if they wish...
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He missed the long covid boat. He shound have deployed that last summer.
Yes, because he'd admit he's been unfit to be PM in at least one crucial sense, for a whole year and more [edit] if he now handed in his jotters.
If he had gone in the summer, he could have claimed, I have been suffering from long COVID, I have good days and bad, I hoped that I would be able to get over it, but after consultation with my doctor they have suggested that high levels of demand placed on any PM is harming any chances of making a full recovery from this appalling illness.
And the thing is I actually believe this has been the case.
Yes, me too
@MaxPB made a good point on the last thread. The Savile thing looks like classic Crosby, but maybe it was totally mishandled by Boris, because he’s not functioning at even 50% capacity
Because there are some questions to be asked about Starmer’s term as DPP, on various points, but the way Boris did it was blundering oafish and just damn ugly. Making it easy for Starmer to be aggrieved and making Boris look so bad he has had to say sorry 3 days later
This is just crap basic politics, and the old Boris - the funny, campaigning Boris - would not have made these egregious errors
It's not a Crosby thing.
Savile damages the Tories as much as Labour, all those photos of Savile with Thatcher, who gave him a knighthood etc.
Indeed, my point earlier was that lots of people were ascribing it to Crosby but it doesn't feel like a Crosby tactic. It feels like something dreamt up by someone thinking "what would Lynton do?" and completely fucking up.
I also don't buy the idea that Boris was flustered and said it in the heat of the moment. This was such an out of the blue attack on a subject no one in their right mind wants to approach (for reasons you outline) that it had to be calculated by Boris or one of his SPADs. Just someone without any real political antenna.
If it was supposed to be a dead cat, then he cocked it up, since the idea is to get people talking about something different. Stopping people talking about your lying by telling another big lie doesn't work.
I do buy that he was flustered - but agree it was a reference he had in his head already, probably from some session he had in the past going through Starmer's history and weak points. It's quite possible that it was discarded but he remembered it and, yes, came out with it in the heat of the moment. You can see from the early part of that reply to Starmer how rattled he was.
The ERG will have to move now to remove Boris. Mirza was the ideological driver of Brexit within the PM's staff, she was the ultimate guarantee for them that Boris wouldn't backslide, without her being head of policy I don't see how the ERG will let Boris stay on as leader, they know he's doesn't give a shit either way.
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
The ERG are meaningless in this. The cabinet is where this happens.
The ERG is over 100 MPs at last count, they can get to 55 letters and then ensure Boris loses the VONC by allying with the ONC grouping to get rid.
Have to hold my hand up, genuinely did not think we'd get any letters (or equivalent actions, like an official resigning) over the Starmer attack.
It was positively a QAnon thing.
I know some Tory MPs would never go down that route, not only is it bad morally, as the GOP have found, it ends up eating the moderate wing.
Did people notice how the "impeccably mannered" Rees Mogg reveled in the Savile quip when Johnson made it in the HoC? He was giving it the full point and smirky chuckle treatment. Another poshboy thug with a core of petty malice inside the coating of high-end privilege. No wonder he and "Boris" hit it off so well. If we could somehow see the back of these types in positions of power (all walks) we'd be cooking with gas. It's *really* important we find a way to do this. More important to our prospects than almost anything.
The ERG will have to move now to remove Boris. Mirza was the ideological driver of Brexit within the PM's staff, she was the ultimate guarantee for them that Boris wouldn't backslide, without her being head of policy I don't see how the ERG will let Boris stay on as leader, they know he's doesn't give a shit either way.
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
The ERG are meaningless in this. The cabinet is where this happens.
The ERG can get the letters to 54 tonight if they wish...
The ERG will have to move now to remove Boris. Mirza was the ideological driver of Brexit within the PM's staff, she was the ultimate guarantee for them that Boris wouldn't backslide, without her being head of policy I don't see how the ERG will let Boris stay on as leader, they know he's doesn't give a shit either way.
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
The ERG are meaningless in this. The cabinet is where this happens.
The ERG can get the letters to 54 tonight if they wish...
Mirza is married to Dougie Smith, a former senior Conservative party aide .... She had a son in 2013.[5]
You might want to recheck wikipedia...and edit your post.
And you to Google munira mirza husband. I may look stupid, but I am just bright enough to double source that sort of thing. Especially on a page I myself edited this afternoon.
My apologises. You are quite right. Apparently unashamedly so.
Wonder who is busy taking it down from wikipedia given this is the case?
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
The ERG will have to move now to remove Boris. Mirza was the ideological driver of Brexit within the PM's staff, she was the ultimate guarantee for them that Boris wouldn't backslide, without her being head of policy I don't see how the ERG will let Boris stay on as leader, they know he's doesn't give a shit either way.
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
The ERG are meaningless in this. The cabinet is where this happens.
The ERG is over 100 MPs at last count, they can get to 55 letters and then ensure Boris loses the VONC by allying with the ONC grouping to get rid.
Yes of course, but if it was the ERG alone they'd lose. This is about the broad spectrum of Tory MPs.
I see there's a handful still on here trying to justify BJ's Savile smear, on the grounds of 1) he's got a point, hasn't he - Starmer was DPP - and/or 2) Johnson just blurted it out unthinkingly.
On 1) anybody who has looked into it properly would conclude, like Mirza, that no, he hasn't got a point at all.
On 2) note that Johnson left the smear to his final comments at PMQs quite deliberately - the PM gets the last word, and he knew Starmer couldn't get up and rebut it there and then. It went exactly as BJ planned.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
The Conservative Party, for all its grandiose pretensions, is not part of the constitution. Johnson remains PM until he decides to advise HMQ to send for someone else. That decision doesn't follow automatically from a party VONC, even if you and TSE think it ought to.
What are the chances of a members’ ballot between Sunak and Patel?
I think it will either be Truss or Raab in the final two with Sunak... but then again Con leadership contents are unpredictable things so you just never know... Who knows what dirty little secrets Dom has up his sleeve to leak on everyone at the most opportune moment...
BREAKING: Northern Ireland's first minister Paul Givan has quit.
Good. Should get the hardline Unionist vote back behind the DUP from the TUV
Yes one thing we have learned from the last few years is that the DUP are master political strategists
Indeed, marvel at how well they used their position holding up May to ensure they got what they wanted, rather than pushed things so far the whole thing collapsed. I cannot wait to see what they try next.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Interesting though that we aren’t talking about Class A drug use on the Labour front bench.
Indeed, but surely much closer to home even than Mr Saville as far as the Conservative front bench is concerned, even ignoring those tales of No 10 parties.
Boris Johnson's claim that Sir Lynton Crosby is returning to his side was, I hear, a great surprise not just to him (in Australia, where he is staying for family reasons), but everyone in No10 too. Crosby and Johnson talk from time to time on the phone as friends, but that's it. https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1489276943300239362
BREAKING: Northern Ireland's first minister Paul Givan has quit.
Good. Should get the hardline Unionist vote back behind the DUP from the TUV
Yes one thing we have learned from the last few years is that the DUP are master political strategists
76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters in NI wanted the DUP to withdraw from the Stormont Executive either now or within the next 3 months until the NI Protocol is scrapped.
Donaldson's Party by doing this where Foster failed to do it will bring back TUV voters to the DUP as Boris brought back Brexit Party voters to the Tories after May failed to deliver Brexit
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
It is Boris, and he alone, who is doing the betraying to his colleagues, his party and his country
That she has served him for so long does make it seem rather odd that the Saville line was what finally was too much, but on the other hand makes the action, regardless of reason, much stronger. It's hard for him to credibly pretend his intent was reasonable when so loyal a person calls it too much.
‘I have served the Leader faithfully, but his treatment of Blondi was the absolute final straw’
Mirza is married to Dougie Smith, a former senior Conservative party aide .... She had a son in 2013.[5]
You might want to recheck wikipedia...and edit your post.
And you to Google munira mirza husband. I may look stupid, but I am just bright enough to double source that sort of thing. Especially on a page I myself edited this afternoon.
My apologises. You are quite right. Apparently unashamedly so.
Wonder who is busy taking it down from wikipedia given this is the case?
Fascinating looking at the wikipedia edit history for that page. It's been furiously updated and reupdated all afternoon. The person who took down the detail about Dougie Smith appears now - if I am reading it correctly, which I may well not be - on to editing a list of Eastenders characters.
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
He won't leave with dignity. He doesn't do dignity.
I think he needs to be offered a new job.
And I was wondering: could he perhaps take over from Ursula van der Leyen? While traditionally the Commission President has been from an EU member, I doubt there is any legal need for it.
Boris is also used to working in Brussels, and did a good job (unlike UvdL) with vaccines.
It could be sold to EU as potentially resulting - long-term - in the UK rejoining (or at the very least having someone pissing outside the tend). And it could be sold in the UK as having someone in Brussels who understands our needs.
And from BJ's point of view, it would mean that he was the first Brit to be both Prime Minister and President.
I see there's a handful still on here trying to justify BJ's Savile smear, on the grounds of 1) he's got a point, hasn't he - Starmer was DPP - and/or 2) Johnson just blurted it out unthinkingly.
On 1) anybody who has looked into it properly would conclude, like Mirza, that no, he hasn't got a point at all.
On 2) note that Johnson left the smear to his final comments at PMQs quite deliberately - the PM gets the last word, and he knew Starmer couldn't get up and rebut it there and then. It went exactly as BJ planned.
I think on the second point there is nuance. That it wasn't preplanned in the sense of a carefully crafted line of attack, more Boris getting flustered = Boris says stuff that gets him a lot of trouble.
My hypothesis is Starmer's time at DPP has been discussed as potential avenue of attack, lots of crap cases etc, and Boris goes right, so he sits there thinking cripes I need something to whack him with at the end, lets do the that Savile stuff that they talked about when I wasn't really listening and out comes the untruth.
The question now arises. Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser. How does he answer?
Just announce he is resigning from Cabinet and will seek a leadership election at the earliest moment.
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
I feel it is too late now for anyone who remains in government, all this time after the Starmer smear, to recover credibility as a PM candidate. An open goal now for Tugendhat, Hunt et al.
Neither of whom the Tory membership will vote for.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I wouldn't be surprised to see this one kept away from the membership, and sorted out in parliament.
Yes. If the leader walks, or is given a vote of no confidence, it’s really not good to keep a contest running for two months when you’re in government.
Maybe they’ll appoint a caretaker PM from the cabinet, who agrees not to stand, but the easiest way is for the MPs to appoint a leader in a similar way to Mrs May’s appointment.
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
It was the hook for my latest missive to my MP. Standing up Putin to instead arse about in parliament, using Savile as a deflection from the criminal investigation into himself. A real low.
This is incredibly conflicting for a good centre-leftie like myself.
Dominic Cummings, the man who screwed up schools beyond measure? Resigned/fired and has been knifing Boris ever since.
David Frost, the self-satisfied Mr Brexit? Resigned and knifed Boris on the way out.
Munira Mirza, the cynical author of the "war on woke"? Resigned and knifed Boris today.
Boris Johnson, leader of a generally loathsome government who yet has been the prime mover behind something I particularly care about (Dutch-style safe cycle tracks).
Help me, who am I supposed to be rooting for here?
Boris needs a face-saving exit. The revolver on the mahogany table, with a tumbler of Highland Park
If he’s not careful he will end up like Mussolini or Gadaffi (metaphorically). Not dignified
He needs some excuse to resign that somehow seems principled. What could it be? Long Covid? He’s left it a bit late to suddenly start saying Oh I’m too ill. But what else is there?
Trump held on even when he had lost the EC in 2020 and refused to concede defeat until eventually Congress awarded the election to Biden.
Corbyn even lost a VONC in 2016 amongst his MPs, refused to resign and went to a membership vote where he was re elected and stayed leader until defeat at the 2019 general election.
Boris is as stubborn as Trump and Corbyn, he will not resign even if there is a VONC and even if he only wins it 50.5% to 49.5%
As I have pointed out before, if Johnson loses a VONC of Tory MPs there is no constitutional requirement for him to resign. He can wait for Starmer to table a VONC in Parliament and dare the PCP to desert him. If they do he can challenge Starmer to a general election to which the latter can hardly demur. His position is hopeless so anything could happen.
I understood that TSE had already comprehensively scotched this idea quoting the Tory party rulebook. If he loses the party VONC he is out. There will be a new leader of the Tory party and it will be up to that person to try to command a majority in Parliament. But Johnson will be done.
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
I've been arguing the opposite and didn't see TSE's comments (but as a non-lawyer I'd defer to his view of it, but the Tory party rulebook only gets rid of him as party leader) - I'd still be interested to see an explanation of how a potential new PM can meet the confidence vote test set out in FTPA, which demands that the House vote confidence in "HM Government" not "a possible alternative government". Unless the existing PM is honourable enough to resign no such vote can take place because no other government can be appointed... you see the problem when you get to the word "honourable".
The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Andrew Griffith MP as an unpaid Parliamentary Secretary (Minister for Policy and Head of the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit) in the Cabinet Office. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1489271863238959122
I can’t remember being so angry as I was when Boris made his Jimmy Savile smear at PMQs.
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
Sort of agree but this looks quite a lot like Meet the new boss same as the old boss. Sunak's two besties according to peston are MM's husband, and James forsyth of the Spectator who had the exclusive on this. This is a coup not a spontaneous uprising.
Mirza is married to Dougie Smith, a former senior Conservative party aide .... She had a son in 2013.[5]
You might want to recheck wikipedia...and edit your post.
And you to Google munira mirza husband. I may look stupid, but I am just bright enough to double source that sort of thing. Especially on a page I myself edited this afternoon.
My apologises. You are quite right. Apparently unashamedly so.
Wonder who is busy taking it down from wikipedia given this is the case?
Not a conspiracy - it is one of WP's regular wonks tidying the page because he knows it's going to be well visited. The former business venture of her other half isn't really pertinent to her own WP article.
Comments
The debate has been whether he WILL go, and the chances of him then winning the GE
I believe he will now go, and fairly soon
https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1489272995269033986
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1489271854217023496
Sunak is bound to be asked whether he agrees with Mirza or the PM at this presser.
How does he answer?
She asked him to apologize and he refused.
It wouldn't be blurted out the blue in a PMQs / HoC business though.
Then Boris needs in a hurry (i.e. while stood inside the Commons) a reason why he shouldn't resign for allowing the parties to be held and voila it's the first idea that enters his head and leaves his mouth.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1489273558077423616
Compare and contrast this with Sir Michael Fallon's attack on Ed Miliband in the run up to GE2015.
Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back to become Labour leader. Now he is willing to stab the United Kingdom in the back to become prime minister
Or be Dave Miliband.
Purnell has just walked from Johnson's bunker.
That would be entirely correct, or entirely incorrect on either interpretation. Either there was an apparent crime and he should have been suspended from prosecuting himself or not as he decided, or there was no crime and he was inherently innocent.
As for Mr Saville, the Conservatives
(a) knighted him and
(b) headed the administration which increased his status and access to at least one key NHS facility, Broadmoor.
At present my personal opinion of the Prime Minister is secondary to my trying to do the best I can for the country.”
https://twitter.com/KateMaltby/status/1489262604904140809
But if he was in charge of the CPS, then he was in charge of the CPS.
Cressida Dick hasn’t personally raped anyone, but it doesn’t stop the calls for her to resign when yet another of her officers gets sent down for rape.
Which is why it is idiotic to go near it.
Mirza is married to Dougie Smith, a former senior Conservative party aide and organiser of swinger parties.[42][43] She had a son in 2013.[5]
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1489265601688137728
Like saying “she was Hitler’s moral conscience”.
65% of 2015, 2017 and 2019 Conservative voters are still voting for the Tories, 21% undecided.
49% of 2017 and 2019 Conservative voters (but who did not vote Tory in 2015) are still voting for the Tories. 22% are undecided, 10% voting RefUK and 6% back Labour.
36% of 2015 and 2019 Conservative voters (but who did not vote Tory in 2017) are still voting Tory. 37% are undecided and 8% voting Labour and 5% LD.
34% of 2019 Conservative voters (but who did not vote Tory in 2015 or 2017) are still voting Tory. 27% are undecided, 13% voting Labour and 7% voting RefUK
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1489181607562989569?s=20&t=GHvdvBKXJ1dz9LR9og9Mbg
It's really, really hard to overestimate just how important Mirza was to team Boris. A huge player, her loss is a dagger for Boris. His inability to ever admit he did something wrong or broke the rules has caught up with him, and over something really trivial as well that he could have walked back really easily.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1489276009232879619
Meanwhile, breaking, the NI FM resigns....
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1489276943300239362
Just catching up.
The SNP pension double-down is both a sign of desperation, and incredibly clever. It’s an utter hoax of course, but Brexit showed that you can fool 52% of the population if you are brazen enough.
It will take at least (checks calendar) 5 and a half years for the lies to catch up with you, but hey who cares about tomorrow?
The BoE announcement is tragic. Some - not all of course, is again down to Brexit. In 2016 the UK started on a course of fantasy economics and such projects never prosper. So much for the roaring 20s. The UK has - in a very short time - found itself in a high tax, low growth, stagnant wages trap. History demonstrates that such things tend to destabilise society and have all sorts of nasty knock-on effects.
The energy loans thing is a disaster. Better to take the hit now I would have thought. Instead, it’s going to drag on and on. It’s open goal after open goal for Labour.
Munira’s letter is very interesting. For a long-term loyalist, it doesn’t read very loyal. Perhaps she has already secured the next gig with Boris’s replacement.
A Boris loyalist like Truss would easily beat them once it gets to the membership if Boris was forced out.
As would Sunak if he is still seen as not having betrayed Boris
I do buy that he was flustered - but agree it was a reference he had in his head already, probably from some session he had in the past going through Starmer's history and weak points. It's quite possible that it was discarded but he remembered it and, yes, came out with it in the heat of the moment. You can see from the early part of that reply to Starmer how rattled he was.
‘Christ, I didn’t mean to actually…uuuurrrrgh’
I was literally trembling.
At that moment, one of the pillars underneath British democracy buckled.
Im really fucking glad so many have decided, too much.
Wonder who is busy taking it down from wikipedia given this is the case?
And currently a GE requires 66% of the MPs whilst a new Tory leader only needs a majority of 1.
On 1) anybody who has looked into it properly would conclude, like Mirza, that no, he hasn't got a point at all.
On 2) note that Johnson left the smear to his final comments at PMQs quite deliberately - the PM gets the last word, and he knew Starmer couldn't get up and rebut it there and then. It went exactly as BJ planned.
https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/03/previewing-the-by-elections-of-03-feb-2022/
As well as Southend West we have
Berkhampsted West - Dacorum Council- LD defence
Boxmoor - Dacorum Council- LD defence
Campden and Vale - Cotswold Council- C defence
Spital - Tamworth Council- C defence
Evington - Leicester Council - Lab defence
Ancoats and Beswick - Manchester Council - Lab defence
https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=ENfIPEaCMJIQwCAmFEjXVA
https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=ENfIPEaCMJIQwCAmFEjXVA
Donaldson's Party by doing this where Foster failed to do it will bring back TUV voters to the DUP as Boris brought back Brexit Party voters to the Tories after May failed to deliver Brexit
The person who took down the detail about Dougie Smith appears now - if I am reading it correctly, which I may well not be - on to editing a list of Eastenders characters.
We just fundamentally disagree on Brexit.
I suspect if we could be arsed to break it down more thoroughly we would even agree on various sub-themes of Brexit.
And I was wondering: could he perhaps take over from Ursula van der Leyen? While traditionally the Commission President has been from an EU member, I doubt there is any legal need for it.
Boris is also used to working in Brussels, and did a good job (unlike UvdL) with vaccines.
It could be sold to EU as potentially resulting - long-term - in the UK rejoining (or at the very least having someone pissing outside the tend). And it could be sold in the UK as having someone in Brussels who understands our needs.
And from BJ's point of view, it would mean that he was the first Brit to be both Prime Minister and President.
My hypothesis is Starmer's time at DPP has been discussed as potential avenue of attack, lots of crap cases etc, and Boris goes right, so he sits there thinking cripes I need something to whack him with at the end, lets do the that Savile stuff that they talked about when I wasn't really listening and out comes the untruth.
Maybe they’ll appoint a caretaker PM from the cabinet, who agrees not to stand, but the easiest way is for the MPs to appoint a leader in a similar way to Mrs May’s appointment.
Quite right, too.
Perhaps you can help
Who is to blame for Saville not being prosecuted?
Did they apologize?
Were they sacked?
Dominic Cummings, the man who screwed up schools beyond measure? Resigned/fired and has been knifing Boris ever since.
David Frost, the self-satisfied Mr Brexit? Resigned and knifed Boris on the way out.
Munira Mirza, the cynical author of the "war on woke"? Resigned and knifed Boris today.
Boris Johnson, leader of a generally loathsome government who yet has been the prime mover behind something I particularly care about (Dutch-style safe cycle tracks).
Help me, who am I supposed to be rooting for here?
https://twitter.com/donaeldunready/status/1489280201724936195
We'll see