The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

That means 12 out of 16 allegations against Johnson warrant separate police investigation. I expect Keir Starmer will make that the central platform of his attack in half an hour.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1488165706755682304

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.

Berlusconi and Sarkozy and Fillon were convicted of criminal offences, only Fillon served time though.

Berlusconi still leads Forza Italia

Until Bozo arrived Politics in Britain had higher moral standards than Italy.

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

Our Lord was arrested and jailed, and worse. If even He could come back from that, I am disappointed by your low expectations for the Dear Leader.

At which point, this is mandatory - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

I think if he’s interviewed under caution, let alone charged, convicted or imprisoned he’ll be gone.

A Tory I know - "He's had more parties than bastards".

For a redacted report that is about as bad as it could have been. No idea what happens next other than he will not resign. Is a cabinet resignation possible? Or a Dom Bomb?

I hardly ever watch politics on TV so I've never seen Angela Rayner 'in action' before...

She's terrible!

Eabhal said:

Farooq said:

My official verdict:

The "report" is riddled with cadences so ugly that they were either written by SeanT or they are being used to conceal a hidden message.

For example:
Every citizen has been impacted by the pandemic. Everyone has made personal
sacrifices, some the most profound, having been unable to see loved ones in their
last moments or care for vulnerable family and friends.
It is with that context in mind that I make the following general limited findings.

Do we have any steganography experts, or is it just a turd?

She famously doesn't like writing stuff down.

It's pretty much how I write. I would say, on that assumption, that the phrase "general limited findings" was her preferred term of art, the rest is getting there.

So… 49% now say @Keir_Starmer most capable PM choice vs 31% for @BorisJohnson Johnson may be at bedrock https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1488167929443192840/photo/1

I suggest some Civil Servants, high and low, are going to be thrown under the bus. The PM is going to ‘have been dreadfully let down’ and he’s going to get some ‘more reliable’ staff. He ‘inherited most of these staff from his predecessors’ … even if he didn’t, but by the time that’s been established events will have moved on.

BartholomewRoberts said:

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Far too early to say that.

If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.

That's a reframing in his favour that doesn't work. The bar is whether he lied to Parliament not whether he gets a fixed penalty notice. If he lied to Parliament he must go. Or to put it differently, if the evidence shows he lied to Parliament about these rule-breaking parties in the middle of a pandemic but he *still* won't resign, Tory MPs simply must remove him. And if they don't the public must punish them with a shellacking in the polls and a landslide loss of seats. If none of this happens we're fucked. It's Banana Republic and total loss of self-respect here we come.

We are about to see the leader v lawyer play out in full view

On this occasion the lawyer should walk it

OldKingCole said:

I suggest some Civil Servants, high and low, are going to be thrown under the bus. The PM is going to ‘have been dreadfully let down’ and he’s going to get some ‘more reliable’ staff. He ‘inherited most of these staff from his predecessors’ … even if he didn’t, but by the time that’s been established events will have moved on.

I don't think that civil servants deserver protecting in this. They were adults, who claim to be big enough to help run the country.

Malmesbury said:

OldKingCole said:

I suggest some Civil Servants, high and low, are going to be thrown under the bus. The PM is going to ‘have been dreadfully let down’ and he’s going to get some ‘more reliable’ staff. He ‘inherited most of these staff from his predecessors’ … even if he didn’t, but by the time that’s been established events will have moved on.

I don't think that civil servants deserver protecting in this. They were adults, who claim to be big enough to help run the country.

If your bosses boss was there you should be let off imo.

Benpointer said:

PB Lawyers: can someone tell me,

a) If the penalties for breaching the Covid rules were only FPNs and...

b) If receiving and paying uncontested a FPN equates to breaking the law and/or a criminal action?

Thanks

As I understand it is paid to the local authority and is not a criminal conviction

Farooq said:

Farooq said:

PDF tip. You can sometimes learn about the construction of the document by selecting all (Ctrl-A if you're on a Windows machine).

For example, scroll down to section 23. You can see from the blue highlighting that "limited" was added at a separate time from rest of the sentence.

In Section 16, "setting out general findings" appears to have been changed to "setting out some general findings now"

Section 13 is fascinating. The bit around the "secure storage" of information looks like it's been gone over a few times. Possibly some dithering or to and fro over the wording here.

Ah this is great fun. Anyone checked for an acrostic?

Benpointer said:

PB Lawyers: can someone tell me,

a) If the penalties for breaching the Covid rules were only FPNs and...

b) If receiving and paying uncontested a FPN equates to breaking the law and/or a criminal action?

Thanks

In respect of (b), FPNs are not technically admissions of guilt of the offence. They should be distinguished from fines, which are.

However they do sort of admit you did the thing, so a lot of weight being put on "technically" there.

ETA: R v Hunter (Nigel) [2015] EWCA Crim 631

kinabalu said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Far too early to say that.

If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.

That's a reframing in his favour that doesn't work. The bar is whether he lied to Parliament not whether he gets a fixed penalty notice. If he lied to Parliament he must go. Or to put it differently, if the evidence shows he lied to Parliament about these rule-breaking parties in the middle of a pandemic but he *still* won't resign, Tory MPs simply must remove him. And if they don't the public must punish them with a shellacking in the polls and a landslide loss of seats. If none of this happens we're fucked. It's Banana Republic and total loss of self-respect here we come.

Whether the law was broken, or whether the rules were broken, is the same thing.

Guidelines are not rules. They're guidelines. Laws are the rules.

This lies to Parliament thing is weird because if the threshold to say he lied has been met, the threshold he has to go for other reasons has also already been met. So yes if he's lied to Parliament he should go, but in this case it's an unnecessary and redundant condition.

eek said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

eek said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.

That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.

Yep but none of the analysis is going to be bad enough to remove Boris from No 10. Anyone thinking that May 2022 is going to be seriously bad news for the Tories doesn't understand the May 2018 election.

Well thank you Mr Eek for pointing out the apparent inadequacy of my political understanding and the superiority of yours. In order that I might 1) put in an order for a hair shirt and 2) enhance my understanding, please enlighten me how, for example, a less than 30% of votes for the Tories might not be considered bad news by Tory MPs?

As a matter of interest, why don't the Westminster Conservative Party politely ask Boris Johnson to stand down temporarily pending police investigation?

If criminal activity is found, he goes. If it isn't, he stays.

Meantime they appoint a caretaker.

Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

I give no pass to Boris, but Rayner trying to excuse the civil servants involved is an utterly nonsense

Heathener said:

As a matter of interest, why don't the Westminster Conservative Party politely ask Boris Johnson to stand down temporarily pending police investigation?

If criminal activity is found, he goes. If it isn't, he stays.

Meantime they appoint a caretaker.

No such thing as a caretaker PM..

Barnesian said:

"As a result of the Metropolitan Police’s investigations, and so as not to prejudice the police investigative process, they have told me that it would only be appropriate to make minimal reference to the gatherings on the dates they are investigating.

Unfortunately, this necessarily means that I am extremely limited in what I can say about those events and it is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather"

Rare to see a report so blatantly admit its own pointlessness.

Malmesbury said:

OldKingCole said:

I suggest some Civil Servants, high and low, are going to be thrown under the bus. The PM is going to ‘have been dreadfully let down’ and he’s going to get some ‘more reliable’ staff. He ‘inherited most of these staff from his predecessors’ … even if he didn’t, but by the time that’s been established events will have moved on.

I don't think that civil servants deserver protecting in this. They were adults, who claim to be big enough to help run the country.

We need to see how many of the people at these parties were real civil servants and how many were political appointees by Johnson.

Time will tell (hopefully) but I think it's easy to blame 'civil servants' when I suspect many of those involved were no such thing (in the generally accepted sense)

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I give no pass to Boris, but Rayner trying to excuse the civil servants involved is an utterly nonsense

Were you a civil servant in No 10 was it better for your career to attend the parties or to avoid them

Up to early December 2021 I suspect attending parties was a better career move as it meant you were in with the right people.

Eabhal said:

Farooq said:

My official verdict:

The "report" is riddled with cadences so ugly that they were either written by SeanT or they are being used to conceal a hidden message.

For example:
Every citizen has been impacted by the pandemic. Everyone has made personal
sacrifices, some the most profound, having been unable to see loved ones in their
last moments or care for vulnerable family and friends.
It is with that context in mind that I make the following general limited findings.

Do we have any steganography experts, or is it just a turd?

She famously doesn't like writing stuff down.

I think it's more a combination of pressure and changes made by others and working on it late till she's cross-eyed. And lack of time to revise. When I'm writing a detailed research paper I need to leave it for a clear week before revising *just* to check the style and grammar.

eek said:

Heathener said:

As a matter of interest, why don't the Westminster Conservative Party politely ask Boris Johnson to stand down temporarily pending police investigation?

If criminal activity is found, he goes. If it isn't, he stays.

Meantime they appoint a caretaker.

No such thing as a caretaker PM..

Rules are made for, er, breaking. Just ask Boris.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

What a bizarre comment

You become more ridiculous day by day

Actually quite a few leaders have done time then returned to lead

Lenin?
Stalin maybe
Vaclav Havel
Gandhi
Ho Chi Minh
Aung Sun Sue Khi
Nehru

MikeSmithson said:

Leon said:

Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

A BoJo luvvie speaks

He still has around 20-25% of the countries support so it would be strange if there were no supporters on here. If continually lying to us is trivial, I can see why they still like him. Delivers sunny false optimism, but if the false does not matter as it is dull, then why not?

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

What a bizarre comment

You become more ridiculous day by day

Actually quite a few leaders have done time then returned to lead

Lenin?
Stalin maybe
Vaclav Havel
Gandhi
Ho Chi Minh
Aung Sun Sue Khi
Nehru

Bernard: And as you know the letters JB are the highest honour in the Commonwealth.
Hacker: JB?
Sir Humphrey: Jailed by the British. Gandhi, Nkrumah, Makarios, Ben Gurion, Kenyatta, Nehru, Mugabe, the list of world leaders is endless, and contains several of our students.

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

What a bizarre comment

You become more ridiculous day by day

Actually quite a few leaders have done time then returned to lead

Lenin?
Stalin maybe
Vaclav Havel
Gandhi
Ho Chi Minh
Aung Sun Sue Khi
Nehru

Hitler

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I give no pass to Boris, but Rayner trying to excuse the civil servants involved is an utterly nonsense

Were you a civil servant in No 10 was it better for your career to attend the parties or to avoid them

Up to early December 2021 I suspect attending parties was a better career move as it meant you were in with the right people.

I do not have an issue with junior civil servants but those in management should resign in block

Heathener said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country

This is a particularly remarkable moment in the life of politicalbetting.com



(And, no, even saying you're not making a 'direct' comparison doesn't help)

If no comparison had been intended, there was no conceivable reason for his having typed it out

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Far too early to say that.

If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.

That's a reframing in his favour that doesn't work. The bar is whether he lied to Parliament not whether he gets a fixed penalty notice. If he lied to Parliament he must go. Or to put it differently, if the evidence shows he lied to Parliament about these rule-breaking parties in the middle of a pandemic but he *still* won't resign, Tory MPs simply must remove him. And if they don't the public must punish them with a shellacking in the polls and a landslide loss of seats. If none of this happens we're fucked. It's Banana Republic and total loss of self-respect here we come.

Whether the law was broken, or whether the rules were broken, is the same thing.

Guidelines are not rules. They're guidelines. Laws are the rules.

This lies to Parliament thing is weird because if the threshold to say he lied has been met, the threshold he has to go for other reasons has also already been met. So yes if he's lied to Parliament he should go, but in this case it's an unnecessary and redundant condition.

No, if he lied it doesn't follow he'll get a penalty notice. Likewise if he doesn't get a penalty notice it doesn't follow he didn't lie.

He said he had no knowledge of rule-breaking events. Will the Gray Report (when we get the proper one) and/or the Met investigation show that to be a lie?

Let's see.

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.

Berlusconi and Sarkozy and Fillon were convicted of criminal offences, only Fillon served time though.

Berlusconi still leads Forza Italia

Until Bozo arrived Politics in Britain had higher moral standards than Italy.

Apart from say Blair taking a million donation to the Labour party to change a policy, I'd generally agree with you.

Richard_Nabavi said:

As so often, David Gauke is right on the button:


David Gauke @DavidGauke

A question that Conservative MPs will have to ask themselves is this. If they leave Johnson in place, how will they justify this delay to their constituents when the full details are finally (and inevitably) set out?

This theme followed through to its logical conclusion leads to a new “temp”PM chosen by the cabinet by tomorrow. If Frost hadn’t resigned he would be the slam dunk choice, as he couldn’t realistically run for the job full time in this day and age.

The clown knows this is bad.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I give no pass to Boris, but Rayner trying to excuse the civil servants involved is an utterly nonsense

Were you a civil servant in No 10 was it better for your career to attend the parties or to avoid them

Up to early December 2021 I suspect attending parties was a better career move as it meant you were in with the right people.

I do not have an issue with junior civil servants but those in management should resign in block

Equally they were all partying because that was what the management above them were doing.

You basically end up with 2 people responsible for this mess and the one at the very top is going to do anything and everything to stay there.

Gray sounds very unimpressed.

Oh for goodness' sake. Throwing No 10 and CabOff civil servants under the bus to save his skin.

Humiliating for the world king.

"lessons will be learned"

"Thoughts and prayers"

It all just sounds so American to me.

HYUFD said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

What a bizarre comment

You become more ridiculous day by day

Actually quite a few leaders have done time then returned to lead

Lenin?
Stalin maybe
Vaclav Havel
Gandhi
Ho Chi Minh
Aung Sun Sue Khi
Nehru

Hitler

Mussolini too

Just before he was hung from a lamppost?

Nigel_Foremain said:

SouthamObserver said:

An honourable man would resign.
A patriotic party would remove him.
It's that simple.

Yep, a mirror image re-run of Labour's slow car crash with Corbyn.

And Tony Blair.

Oh dear - "I get it and I will fix it".

Now into "Yes We Can" Bob the Builder chanting.

We are SURELY better than this.