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The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sir Robert Buckland asking Boris to be serious !!!!!
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Johnson backtracks on commitment to publish report in full.

    He’s a slippery bastard
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    He is going to try and not publish the full report.

    I think his inability to commit to that could be the end.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    I wonder how close some Cabinet ministers are to breaking ranks.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    BoE making a decision on Thursday which will affect the price of everything.
  • Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Davey - What? 100ks of parents burying their children? Obv even one is too many, but that is barking

    Did he mean children burying their parents, and misspeak ?
    yeah, you really hope they were dead first.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Sir Bernard Jenkins puts him on a few months notice

    Thats a clear, we'll kick you out after the May elections if you don't buck up..
    Big mistake. An admission they don't care what happened, only that it is hurting polling. So he can behave however he likes so long as they don't get blowback from it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    What did Buckland say? Useless Five Live went back to the studio.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    This exchange with Mark Harper sounds significant as to whether there will be 54 letters or not. The response must surely have increased the odds that the letters are going in.

    Nope it requires 54 Tory MPs with a backbone and a disregard to their political careers if 54 letters aren't rapidly reached.

    It isn't going to happen.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    You are, I think, not watching this.

    It’s a PMQs for the ages.
  • The tone of the Tory backbenches is very much 'Boris gets one last chance'. This is over.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited January 2022
    Another Tory calls for full publication
  • Chris said:

    I wonder how close some Cabinet ministers are to breaking ranks.

    Sunak missed the ideal opportunity over the weekend.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    He is going to try and not publish the full report.

    I think his inability to commit to that could be the end.

    Yes, I agree. That will surely put some MPs over the edge.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    He denies the flat party again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    PM now refusing to say whether he was present in his own flat for a gathering on Nov 13 - which is being investigated by police.

    This feels like the trickiest issue for him. He has previously said no party occurred - and is still standing by that denial

    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1488183144834555906
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Really doesn’t look like a PM with massive amounts of party support
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Johnson backtracks on commitment to publish report in full.

    He’s a slippery bastard

    He is going to try and not publish the full report.

    I think his inability to commit to that could be the end.

    I agree

    If I were a Tory backbencher, that would be crucial as to whether I’d put my letter in.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    I wonder if this brief report will turn out to have been an error?
    He's getting a kicking here. He'd have got one for the full report too.
    But then it would have been over.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Chris said:

    I wonder how close some Cabinet ministers are to breaking ranks.

    Sunak missed the ideal opportunity over the weekend.
    Sunak kept the NI increase in place that Boris probably wanted scrapped (even though he was the person who first announced it).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Even Jacob Rees looked completely incredulous when Bozza told Jakey's good mate Jess P to "wait" when she simply asked him whether he was at the 13 Nov do.

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Davey - What? 100ks of parents burying their children? Obv even one is too many, but that is barking

    Did he mean children burying their parents, and misspeak ?
    There would also have been people in their 40s, 50s etc dying with one or both parents still alive. Even including those, 100k seems far too high.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    You are, I think, not watching this.

    It’s a PMQs for the ages.
    Please today of all days don't give Leon the oxygen. He's on another island but could be on another planet.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Chris said:

    I wonder how close some Cabinet ministers are to breaking ranks.

    Sunak missed the ideal opportunity over the weekend.
    I think now is ideal timing. Best if several go together. There would then be 54 letters guaranteed and he would be a goner.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    I think theres a decent chance of that. It's why the moment for a challenge was when people riled up. The tories might not recover with time, but the public wont remain as interested in these things as us.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    The problem Leon is that he is not suitable to hold the office of PM. Simples. He needs to get back into showbiz and scre*ing single and married women. He cannot and is unwilling to take any responsibility; we have seen that numerous times both in politics and his personal life. He's really not a very nice man. Worst PM of my lifetime for sure, probably of all time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    eek said:

    This exchange with Mark Harper sounds significant as to whether there will be 54 letters or not. The response must surely have increased the odds that the letters are going in.

    Nope it requires 54 Tory MPs with a backbone and a disregard to their political careers if 54 letters aren't rapidly reached.

    It isn't going to happen.
    The letters are anonymous aren't they?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    JBriskin3 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    BoE making a decision on Thursday which will affect the price of everything.
    Not really it merely puts us where we should have been in December.
  • Has anyone at least done the basics and checked where Boris officially was on each of these days?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    Bryant powerful.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    This exchange with Mark Harper sounds significant as to whether there will be 54 letters or not. The response must surely have increased the odds that the letters are going in.

    Nope it requires 54 Tory MPs with a backbone and a disregard to their political careers if 54 letters aren't rapidly reached.

    It isn't going to happen.
    The letters are anonymous aren't they?
    Remember Boris has people trying to watch who is heading in that direction.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Yup. I think the moment for me is JRM's face dropping when Jess, inquiring about Bozzatron's attendance on Nov 13, said "I guess I'm going to be told to wait for something..." and he then told her to wait for something.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Bryant cracking point.

    Best parliamentary drama of my life.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Even Jacob Rees looked completely incredulous when Bozza told Jakey's good mate Jess P to "wait" when she simply asked him whether he was at the 13 Nov do.

    Indeed. Especially as she specifically prefaced her question with "I expect I'll be told to wait!"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Blackford is a counterproductive idiot, distracting the House and drawing attention onto himself.

    A 'lie' requires the knowledge of falsehood and intent to deceive - and it's extremely hard to prove someone else's knowledge and intent. They could just be lazy and winging it.


    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1488181592136818704?s=20&t=nQZNfBgj7Fd6QKC6qfr2UA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Chris said:

    I wonder how close some Cabinet ministers are to breaking ranks.

    I'd suspect not close. Remember when May seemingly couldn't get any Cabinet Ministers to defend her Brexit deal, and most of the defending it got done by Rory Stewart? That they wouldn't act then and still didn't resign, despite so many doing so, shows how few at so high a level break ranks
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    Back to your poolside drink, and leave this to those of us who are concentrating
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    eek said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    BoE making a decision on Thursday which will affect the price of everything.
    Not really it merely puts us where we should have been in December.
    That's if they hike. They were sounding like that's the case from my CNBC this morning.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1488184464861798401
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The COVID case panic has been delayed.

    Please wait patiently.

    Not even a time of release estimate!

    Won't someone think of the geeks. Boris must reaign.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Baker missed an open goal.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    It was always going to be near-impossible for Boris to handle this situation in the Commons, but I'm surprised he didn't at least attempt the humble contrition gambit. That probably shows how flustered he is.

    I can sort of understand it from his pov. Contrition, of attempted, wouldn't call off his internal critics, so a confident, punchy response stirs up his backers at least.
    Doing a Brett Kavanuagh.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    dixiedean said:

    Even Jacob Rees looked completely incredulous when Bozza told Jakey's good mate Jess P to "wait" when she simply asked him whether he was at the 13 Nov do.

    Indeed. Especially as she specifically prefaced her question with "I expect I'll be told to wait!"
    Yes, it was a masterstroke that. Made Bozza look like a complete idiot.
  • Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    Well that would be a perfectly normal and understandable reaction from the many who supported him in his rise to power. It's very difficult to admit a misjudgement. A sense of ennuie and ca ne fait rien is certainly more comfortable than one of embarassment.

    It is unlikely to detract however from the sense of disdain felt by those who always thought he was, is and will always remain a gobshite.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer must be overjoyed.

    Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

    Far too early to say that.

    If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

    If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

    Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.
    That's a reframing in his favour that doesn't work. The bar is whether he lied to Parliament not whether he gets a fixed penalty notice. If he lied to Parliament he must go. Or to put it differently, if the evidence shows he lied to Parliament about these rule-breaking parties in the middle of a pandemic but he *still* won't resign, Tory MPs simply must remove him. And if they don't the public must punish them with a shellacking in the polls and a landslide loss of seats. If none of this happens we're fucked. It's Banana Republic and total loss of self-respect here we come.
    Whether the law was broken, or whether the rules were broken, is the same thing.

    Guidelines are not rules. They're guidelines. Laws are the rules.

    This lies to Parliament thing is weird because if the threshold to say he lied has been met, the threshold he has to go for other reasons has also already been met. So yes if he's lied to Parliament he should go, but in this case it's an unnecessary and redundant condition.
    No, if he lied it doesn't follow he'll get a penalty notice. Likewise if he doesn't get a penalty notice it doesn't follow he didn't lie.

    He said he had no knowledge of rule-breaking events. Will the Gray Report (when we get the proper one) and/or the Met investigation show that to be a lie?

    Let's see.
    If the PM knew the law was being broken by either himself or his team and did nothing about it then he should resign. Whether he'd said to the House that the law wasn't being broken or not.

    Lawmakers can not be lawbreakers.
    Yep. And PMs cannot be liars to parliaments. Either should be enough to end him unless he and the Tory Party wish to take up residence in the gutter.
  • ThePoliticalPartyThePoliticalParty Posts: 446
    edited January 2022
    Where was he on 13 November 2020?

    DomCum may remember...
  • Baker missed an open goal.

    That would be intentional then, surely?

    If he wanted to hit an open goal, he surely would have.

    He knows what he's doing.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022

    Where was he on 13 November 2020?

    DomCum may remember...

    I wonder if there'll be any more as soon as he sits down, like last week with the dogs at the kabul airport.
  • Catherine West for Prime Minister.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

    Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

    If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point
    What a bizarre comment

    You become more ridiculous day by day
    Actually quite a few leaders have done time then returned to lead

    Lenin?
    Stalin maybe
    Vaclav Havel
    Gandhi
    Ho Chi Minh
    Aung Sun Sue Khi
    Nehru
    Oh, that's much more like it! With that post you are competing with HYUFD for the Unembarrassed Boris Apologist Award, also known as the Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Award for Most Comical & Absurd Defence
    There is more an issue of why these persons went to prison. Herr Hitler, for instance, did not go to prison for his government of the Third Reich. He went to prison for trying to overthrow the Weimar Republic (or the Bavarian Land - I'ma bit hazy on that detail at present, but you get the idea). And Mr Mandela did not go to prison for his implementation of the apartheid policy of the RSA Government at the time.
    Mandela went to prison for TERRORISM

    Say what you like about Boris, and I admit he is not a saint, he didn’t anything as bad at MADIBA
    Mr M didn't go to prison for being President, and Herr Hitler didn't go to prison for being Ministerpraesident.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Steve Baker intervention notably unhelpful. Seems to have made his mind up. Given what Mark Harper, former chief whip, said a few minutes ago not looking good for the PM.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.

    Doesn’t end there…surely some of those photos have Johnson in them
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1488184464861798401

    That would indicate that the observation that Cummings was required to hand over all the information that he had in his possession was salient
  • eek said:

    This exchange with Mark Harper sounds significant as to whether there will be 54 letters or not. The response must surely have increased the odds that the letters are going in.

    Nope it requires 54 Tory MPs with a backbone and a disregard to their political careers if 54 letters aren't rapidly reached.

    It isn't going to happen.
    I thought the only person who would ever be supposed to know who submitted letters would be Graham Brady unless the letter writers choose to announce it themselves.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Catherine West for Prime Minister.

    Yeah, one of the good convicts
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer must be overjoyed.

    Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

    Far too early to say that.

    If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

    If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

    Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.
    That's a reframing in his favour that doesn't work. The bar is whether he lied to Parliament not whether he gets a fixed penalty notice. If he lied to Parliament he must go. Or to put it differently, if the evidence shows he lied to Parliament about these rule-breaking parties in the middle of a pandemic but he *still* won't resign, Tory MPs simply must remove him. And if they don't the public must punish them with a shellacking in the polls and a landslide loss of seats. If none of this happens we're fucked. It's Banana Republic and total loss of self-respect here we come.
    Whether the law was broken, or whether the rules were broken, is the same thing.

    Guidelines are not rules. They're guidelines. Laws are the rules.

    This lies to Parliament thing is weird because if the threshold to say he lied has been met, the threshold he has to go for other reasons has also already been met. So yes if he's lied to Parliament he should go, but in this case it's an unnecessary and redundant condition.
    No, if he lied it doesn't follow he'll get a penalty notice. Likewise if he doesn't get a penalty notice it doesn't follow he didn't lie.

    He said he had no knowledge of rule-breaking events. Will the Gray Report (when we get the proper one) and/or the Met investigation show that to be a lie?

    Let's see.
    If the PM knew the law was being broken by either himself or his team and did nothing about it then he should resign. Whether he'd said to the House that the law wasn't being broken or not.

    Lawmakers can not be lawbreakers.
    Yep. And PMs cannot be liars to parliaments. Either should be enough to end him unless he and the Tory Party wish to take up residence in the gutter.
    Indeed but you're trying to set up lying to Parliament as somehow a lower or easier bar to clear than proving knowledge of lawbreaking. It isn't.

    If he knew about lawbreaking and did nothing he should resign. If he doesn't, he hasn't lied.

    I find the latter implausible given the evidence we know about. But at the end of the day if its not shown he knew about lawbreaking, then its not shown he lied either.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1488184464861798401

    That would indicate that the observation that Cummings was required to hand over all the information that he had in his possession was salient
    The timing is as expected, and possibly police have had no choice but to make it known, now - however, he can't publish them. Takes a bit of the edge of him.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    Steve Baker intervention notably unhelpful. Seems to have made his mind up. Given what Mark Harper, former chief whip, said a few minutes ago not looking good for the PM.

    The 54 letters is just the start of course. Could he go on to survive the resulting VOC?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1488184464861798401

    That would indicate that the observation that Cummings was required to hand over all the information that he had in his possession was salient
    Not really. More than one person will have taken a photo, surely?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Baker missed an open goal.

    That would be intentional then, surely?

    If he wanted to hit an open goal, he surely would have.

    He knows what he's doing.
    Yep - it was a strange question, but he stopped the ball just before he entered the penalty box...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited January 2022
    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    The problem Leon is that he is not suitable to hold the office of PM. Simples. He needs to get back into showbiz and scre*ing single and married women. He cannot and is unwilling to take any responsibility; we have seen that numerous times both in politics and his personal life. He's really not a very nice man. Worst PM of my lifetime for sure, probably of all time.
    We must agree to differ. For me he is better than Brown, May, Cameron, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan and Major. He did something amazing: won the Brexit vote. Then something even amazinger: forced Brexit through by winning a genius majority

    Has he squandered all that with his idiotic lies and silly marriage and hie venal inability to focus? Yes, that too

    So now it is time for him to go as he has been revealed as a lying twat good for not much more than winning campaigns (which he does brilliantly) and telling decent jokes. Off you toddle, now, Boris

    But will he? All my points today have been practical not ideological. I can see him surviving, quite easily. Indeed I can see him winning another, slender majority in 2024. His mortal enemy is not partygate, not any more, it is tax and inflation
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Caroline Lucas getting it wrong - if she wants Johnson gone, she should be appealing to Tory MPs' better natures, not claiming they are all as bad as each other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Essexit said:

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Davey - What? 100ks of parents burying their children? Obv even one is too many, but that is barking

    Did he mean children burying their parents, and misspeak ?
    There would also have been people in their 40s, 50s etc dying with one or both parents still alive. Even including those, 100k seems far too high.
    I was thinking of my father's funeral, in spring 2020, where only a handful of close family could attend under the then rules. We weren't even allowed inside the crematorium.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Catherine West for Prime Minister.

    Yeah, one of the good convicts
    She’s actually quite a nasty piece of work, but dyor
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    IshmaelZ said:

    This must be terminal

    It's bad with the censored report. Just think what it would have been like with the proper one.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1488184464861798401

    That would indicate that the observation that Cummings was required to hand over all the information that he had in his possession was salient
    Not really. More than one person will have taken a photo, surely?
    Yes but it does indicate that Cummings has had to comply with Met police demand for all he knows
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Caroline Lucas getting it wrong - if she wants Johnson gone, she should be appealing to Tory MPs' better natures, not claiming they are all as bad as each other.

    Outside of the tory party the game is to attack Boris but not enough to actually kill him.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Leon said:

    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    The problem Leon is that he is not suitable to hold the office of PM. Simples. He needs to get back into showbiz and scre*ing single and married women. He cannot and is unwilling to take any responsibility; we have seen that numerous times both in politics and his personal life. He's really not a very nice man. Worst PM of my lifetime for sure, probably of all time.
    We must agree to differ. For me he is better than Brown, May, Cameron, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan and Major. He did something amazing: won the Brexit vote. Then something even amazinger: forced Brexit through by winning a genius majority

    Has he squandered all that with his idiotic lies and silly marriage and hie venal inability to focus? Yes, that too

    So now it is time for him to go as he has been revealed as a lying twat good for not much more than winning campaigns (which he does brilliantly) and telling decent jokes. Off you toddle, now, Boris

    But will he? All my points today have been practical not ideological. I can see him surviving, quite easily. Indeed I can see him winning another, slender majority in 2024. His mortal enemy is not partygate, not any more, it is tax and inflation
    If the definition of amazing encompasses idiotic.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Leon said:

    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    The problem Leon is that he is not suitable to hold the office of PM. Simples. He needs to get back into showbiz and scre*ing single and married women. He cannot and is unwilling to take any responsibility; we have seen that numerous times both in politics and his personal life. He's really not a very nice man. Worst PM of my lifetime for sure, probably of all time.
    We must agree to differ. For me he is better than Brown, May, Cameron, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan and Major. He did something amazing: won the Brexit vote. Then something even amazinger: forced Brexit through by winning a genius majority

    Has he squandered all that with his idiotic lies and silly marriage and hie venal inability to focus? Yes, that too

    So now it is time for him to go as he has been revealed as a lying twat good for not much more than winning campaigns (which he does brilliantly) and telling decent jokes. Off you toddle, now, Boris

    But will he? All my points today have been practical not ideological. I can see him surviving, quite easily. Indeed I can see him winning another, slender majority in 2024. His mortal enemy is not partygate, not any more, it is tax and inflation
    By the way, how was Sri Lanka this time? Hope you managed to get some decent food this time...
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    Jackie Doyle-Price gets the award for missing the bleeding obvious. If she thinks ministers should be responsible for what goes on in No 10 then the PM should resign.
  • Stocky said:

    Steve Baker intervention notably unhelpful. Seems to have made his mind up. Given what Mark Harper, former chief whip, said a few minutes ago not looking good for the PM.

    The 54 letters is just the start of course. Could he go on to survive the resulting VOC?
    That is the question
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    It's very rare for Leaders of the Opposition to get to speak for the country. It's even rarer for them to get it right when they do. Starmer knocked it out of the park today.

    Sir Keir was overacting a bit too much today. Makes us all look like fools when you realise the whole thing is a charade.

    I liked Boris today actually - not sure if he's going to survive or not though.

    As I hinted at earlier the main duty of a current PM (for me) is that they respond quickly and curtly to the next Section 30 letter. There may be better Dear Nippy letter writers amongst the Tory favourites so I'm open minded.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    The residents of Stourbridge must be delighted to be told they aren't interested.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1488184464861798401

    300 isn't a lot, but it may be enough.
  • Stupid Stourbridge MP even more stupid than Hoyle

    "They've taken too long talking about this, so I'm going to talk about it some more"
  • Priti Patel doesn't look happy at all.

    The Home Secretary appeared to be nodding along to Keir Starmer.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    It was always going to be near-impossible for Boris to handle this situation in the Commons, but I'm surprised he didn't at least attempt the humble contrition gambit. That probably shows how flustered he is.

    I can sort of understand it from his pov. Contrition, of attempted, wouldn't call off his internal critics, so a confident, punchy response stirs up his backers at least.
    Doing a Brett Kavanuagh.
    Does he like beer?
  • dixiedean said:

    The residents of Stourbridge must be delighted to be told they aren't interested.

    The residents of Stourbridge must be as thick as pigshit to elect that MP
  • Boris showing just a glimmer of a little smirk. He knows he's got away with this.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    Priti Patel doesn't look happy at all.

    The Home Secretary appeared to be nodding along to Keir Starmer.
    Might she resign?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    You are, I think, not watching this.

    It’s a PMQs for the ages.
    And far more important than any other domestic matter right now.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Stocky said:

    Steve Baker intervention notably unhelpful. Seems to have made his mind up. Given what Mark Harper, former chief whip, said a few minutes ago not looking good for the PM.

    The 54 letters is just the start of course. Could he go on to survive the resulting VOC?
    That is the question
    Got to get 54 letters first.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking: Scotland Yard just said they've been handed more than **300** photographs as part of their partygate probe. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1488184464861798401

    300 isn't a lot, but it may be enough.
    One's enough if it's good enough. :)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    dixiedean said:

    The residents of Stourbridge must be delighted to be told they aren't interested.

    They may also think his premiership needs to be consigned to Ned's Atomic Dustbin.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2022
    The back bench "hear hears" in response to Tory MP softballs getting feebler....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Davey didn't mean "hundreds of thousands".

    He started with "hundreds" and then corrected it on the fly to "thousands".
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    I think I now understand the Prime Minister's defence against claims he misled the House when he denied that there was a party in Downing Street on 13th November 2020. There wasn't *a* party: there were two parties!

    If you have a few friends round for a celebratory drink - at what point does it become something that is defined as a party.

    I suspect anything that doesn't have a formal party invitation isn't a party in Carrie / Boris's world.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Stocky said:

    Bryant powerful.

    ...He then references Johnson's comments to parliament on 13 November, when he said the guidance and rules were followed in Downing Street.

    "If he won't correct the record today, there's nothing accidental, it's deliberate," Bryant says.

    "I don't know what he's saying Mr Speaker," Johnson says in reply...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Stocky said:

    Steve Baker intervention notably unhelpful. Seems to have made his mind up. Given what Mark Harper, former chief whip, said a few minutes ago not looking good for the PM.

    The 54 letters is just the start of course. Could he go on to survive the resulting VOC?
    The letters are anonymous, but is the ballot?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Nigelb said:

    Essexit said:

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Davey - What? 100ks of parents burying their children? Obv even one is too many, but that is barking

    Did he mean children burying their parents, and misspeak ?
    There would also have been people in their 40s, 50s etc dying with one or both parents still alive. Even including those, 100k seems far too high.
    I was thinking of my father's funeral, in spring 2020, where only a handful of close family could attend under the then rules. We weren't even allowed inside the crematorium.
    I wasn't allowed to visit an uncle who was a father figure to me. He died before I could say goodbye.

    If people like Leon don't get this then they are sewerage.

    Next 48 hours are critical. I expect Johnson to fly to Ukraine tonight or tomorrow morning to try to deflect attention. Tory MPs either see through it and act or they're stuck with Johnson until at least May and quite possibly 2024, when they will get a trouncing.

    p.s. Sir Keir Starmer is looking prime ministerial. Dour and sometimes (really) dull but prime ministerial.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Difficult to express how boring this all seems from 5000 miles away, by the lacy moonlit waves of the Laccadive Sea

    I accept that’s it’s probably way more exciting if you are there in, er, Swindon, or whatever.

    It just seems phenomenally trivial. Obviously wrong, but equally trivial.

    I wonder if for this reason Boris has an unexpected chance of reviving, as no other PM which such terrible polling has ever done.

    Presenting things as boring or complicated and so not worth the bother is a standard evasion tactic.

    Much will be trivial, were it not for the context and particularly comments made about those events. And suddenly even the boring and trivial can become more vital. The pettiness can compound the error not exculpate the participant.
    I just get the sense - from a trillion miles away on balcony on a tropical seashore - that this is beginning to bore the fuck out of voters. And today won’t make any difference - at least in the polls

    I’m not saying it is boring PER SE, I’m a politics geek. Tho, actually, even as a geek this feels a bit damp squib-esque

    We know he is a lying fuck, we know they lied and had pastries, whatever yawn yes, we hate them, but what are they going to do about the price of petrol? Etc?
    The problem Leon is that he is not suitable to hold the office of PM. Simples. He needs to get back into showbiz and scre*ing single and married women. He cannot and is unwilling to take any responsibility; we have seen that numerous times both in politics and his personal life. He's really not a very nice man. Worst PM of my lifetime for sure, probably of all time.
    For me he is better than Brown, May, Cameron, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan and Major. He did something amazing: won the Brexit vote. Then something even amazinger: forced Brexit through by winning a genius majority
    If Boris is so amazing for getting Brexit done then surely Cameron is amazinger for having the vote in the first place.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Tissue Price up.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Tissue Price up.
  • JBriskin3 said:

    How longs Blackford out for? Forever??

    Sfaict Blackford was not thrown out because he had already left. We'll need to wait and see if the Speaker completes the paperwork.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    In assessing the back benchers reaction it might be helpful to bear in mind that some might want proper low tax and freedom conservatism back at least as much as they want Boris gone.

    If not more.

    And they don't really care how they get it.

    They can sell a few party transgressions to workers. What they cannot sell is higher taxes forever, rocketing fuel bills and slow growth. Like it or not, that is part of the narrative here.
This discussion has been closed.