The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com
All detail stripped from Sue Gray's report, but it is still clear in its condemnation: – Behaviour is "difficult to justify"– "failures of leadership"– "Some of the events should not have been allowed"– "The excessive consumption of alcohol is not appropriate"
Comments
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Still won't be enough for 54 MPs to actually put their signatures on a letter.
Nor for 180 MPs to say get lost Boris.4 -
Second(s ticking away for Johnson)0
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12 parties being investigated and the watered down version as damning as it can be..eek said:Still won't be enough for 54 MPs to actually put their signatures on a letter.
Nor for 180 MPs to say get lost Boris.
Hmmm0 -
They’ve admitted all this and said Sorry
It won’t topple him0 -
I think Sue has done her best with that report. As I said on the previous thread, shes deliberately gutted it in protest.2
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Ceci n'est pas un rapport.2
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Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it0 -
Wounded but not downed. Personally very frustrated that Boris now looks likely to battle on, causing untold damage to reputation of the party, a probable dreadful result in May, before finally succumbing.2
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Did I read that right. Has Boris' birthday bash has met the standard for criminal investigation?0
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That is NOT what she says. At all.HYUFD said:
nothing criminal.Anabobazina said:Gray – as I predicted – tells us exactly what we already knew.
The report 'update' is quite damning in its own narrow way, but its findings will surprise precisely nobody.
I don't know if you are incapable of reading and assimilating something properly or whether you're just trolling us.
I'm beginning to think the latter?3 -
Crunch time for SKS, his reply to Johnson really could make all the difference now1
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"As a result of the Metropolitan Police’s investigations, and so as not to prejudice the police investigative process, they have told me that it would only be appropriate to make minimal reference to the gatherings on the dates they are investigating.
Unfortunately, this necessarily means that I am extremely limited in what I can say about those events and it is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather"1 -
Starmer must be overjoyed.
Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.6 -
..if Tory MPs plough on supporting a man who’s presided over “serious failings” in No.10 and “behaviour” that would be seen in poor light by the public, then on their heads be it.
Deserve all that’s coming to them1 -
Summary: it wasn't good.
Full version: It wasn't good. There were failures.
Boris: itwasn't me
That really is about all there is.0 -
The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.4
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ITs clearly very damaging, but I expect not damaging enough.
BJ will limp on for another day.0 -
The paragraph quoted by Mike in the second tweet confirms that there were indeed serious breaches of the rules, which of course is not really news but it is nonetheless significant that it has now been confirmed in a formal investigation. What is more, since there are no less than twelve (out of sixteen) events judged by the Met to meet their threshold for criminal investigation, how on earth can Boris claim, or Tory MPs accept, that he wasn't lying when he said there were no breaches of the rules? What's more, he said that, in parliament, after the first allegations had been made, when he should have properly informed himself even if you accept the indefensible defence that he wasn't already aware of the breaches of the rules.
So we now have a simple test of integrity to apply to Tory MPs. I expect most of them will fail it.12 -
Well, I thought this morning he might get away with leaving it at that and no further report being published, but I think that's out of the question now.HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it0 -
A semi-skimmed report. Showing a bit of leg, but that's all.
We'll have to wait for the full-fat version (after Dick has finished dicking about) to see how big a kicking Bozo actually gets.0 -
You're going to hate me for this. But to understand the report - even in a redacted form - you need to read the Terms of Reference.
These are here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039751/Terms_of_Reference_-_Cabinet_Secretary_Investigations_-_December_2021.docx.pdf.
Note the reference in the 3rd paragraph to "adherence to the guidance in place at the time".
The words in bold are critical. Guidance is not law. A breach of guidance does not mean that a breach of the law was committed.
In one sense this is helpful to the PM. In another it very much isn't because (a) he said to Parliament that the guidelines were followed and (b) it looks as if he and his staff could not be bothered to do what they were asking the rest of the country to do.
Anyway am off for a bit. Have fun everyone.0 -
pronounces the only Clownservative in the village....HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it0 -
My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.0 -
Far too early to say that.El_Capitano said:Starmer must be overjoyed.
Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.
If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.
If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.
Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.1 -
Clearly intended to make bozza's flesh creepBarnesian said:"As a result of the Metropolitan Police’s investigations, and so as not to prejudice the police investigative process, they have told me that it would only be appropriate to make minimal reference to the gatherings on the dates they are investigating.
Unfortunately, this necessarily means that I am extremely limited in what I can say about those events and it is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather"
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Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical AliHYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it6 -
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Agreed.El_Capitano said:Starmer must be overjoyed.
Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.
I don't think the tory MPs will have the courage to do what they need to and remove him.
Meanwhile we have the NI tax increase on its way.
Boris Johnson: High on Spending, High on Taxes.
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I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote2 -
Spinning like a top.HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it2 -
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I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.
May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.2 -
You missed a bit.Heathener said:
Agreed.El_Capitano said:Starmer must be overjoyed.
Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.
I don't think the tory MPs will have the courage to do what they need to and remove him.
Meanwhile we have the NI tax increase on its way.
Boris Johnson: High on Spending, High on Taxes. High on boozing.1 -
Met not investigatingNigel_Foremain said:
Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical AliHYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it
- 15 May 2020
- 27 November 2020
- 10 December 2020
- 15 December 2020
Which means they are investigating
- 20 May 2020: a gathering in the garden of No 10 Downing Street for No 10 staff;
- 18 June 2020: a gathering in the Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall on the departure of a No 10 private secretary;
- 19 June 2020: a gathering in the Cabinet room in No 10 Downing Street on the Prime Minister’s birthday;
- 13 November 2020:
- a gathering in the No 10 Downing Street flat;
- a gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of a special adviser;
- 17 December 2020:
- a gathering in Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall to hold an online Christmas quiz for the Cabinet Secretary’s private office;
- a gathering in Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall on the departure of a senior Cabinet Office official.
- a gathering in No 10 DowningStreet on the departure of a No 10 official;
- 18 December 2020: a gathering in No 10 Downing Street ahead of the Christmas break;
- 14 January 2021; a gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of two No 10 private secretaries;
- 16 April 2021;
- A gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of a senior No 10 official;
- A gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of another No 10 official.2 -
It's the pile of shite that hangs around Boris that many of us expected.HYUFD said:@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.
The thing is I want Boris to go because with a decent leader the Tories would have a chance at the next election. With Boris in place they simply don't as the options for attack are so plentiful
Levelling up - not done
No tax increases - nope NI rose 10% (depending on how you judge a percentage increase)
And if that doesn't work
Boris partied while you parents died alone.
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If a VONC does happen, the MPs will vote in the awareness that the worst is yet to come.HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote2 -
Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it
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Remember that the PM stood at the despatch box and told Parliament "all guidelines were followed"2
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He read it through his blue tinted spectacles.Heathener said:
That is NOT what she says. At all.HYUFD said:
nothing criminal.Anabobazina said:Gray – as I predicted – tells us exactly what we already knew.
The report 'update' is quite damning in its own narrow way, but its findings will surprise precisely nobody.
I don't know if you are incapable of reading and assimilating something properly or whether you're just trolling us.
I'm beginning to think the latter?0 -
If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.1
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Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.Nigel_Foremain said:I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.
May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.0 -
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?0 -
0
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https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1488161386299547648
Glen O'Hara
@gsoh31
Gray Report the equivalent of a horse's head in the Downing St bed - enough to tell you the end point, but not enough to lead to immediate evacuation of the building.4 -
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Mildly amusing Ali?Nigel_Foremain said:
Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical AliHYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it2 -
You believe this lot of Tory MPs have a backbone between them?HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
If you are stupid enough to believe the above I've got a Garden Bridge to sell you.1 -
I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....IshmaelZ said:
Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it0 -
Then the full report is published.Benpointer said:
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?1 -
For now. But he still faces the police investigations and then - if they find there is not enough evidence for criminal proceedings - the release of the full report without the redactions.Pro_Rata said:Summary: it wasn't good.
Full version: It wasn't good. There were failures.
Boris: itwasn't me
That really is about all there is.0 -
Well, obviously. The four are those the Met told her are definitely not criminal. The others are the ones that still might be.IanB2 said:The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.
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How anyone can step back from the report and think Boris is safe..IanB2 said:
There’s 12 events under investigation. Clear failure of leadership. More evidence to come out over the next few months.
There’s no positive in this. The whole thing drags on0 -
Is there a book on how many underlings Boris sacks in an attempt to save his own skin ?0
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I actually think that this report is about as bad as it could be for Johnson given the constraints placed on it by the Met investigations. If Tory MPs had any guts they would move now before he destroys their whole brand, but they won't.3
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That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.eek said:
Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.Nigel_Foremain said:I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.
May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.0 -
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In effect, she's said that if she can't cover the more serious allegations, she's not going to confine herself to the less serious ones. Because that would understate the seriousness of the allegations, and might allow Johnson to pretend the matter was closed.Endillion said:
Well, obviously. The four are those the Met told her are definitely not criminal. The others are the ones that still might be.IanB2 said:The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.
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What's the killer question?
"You asked for us to wait for the report. We now see serious failings are proven. Some in your own flat. You are the Prime Minister, the buck stops with you. Will you go now and save us all the disgrace of a British Prime Minster under criminal investigation? Or do we now have to wait for you to be charged?"0 -
Could she have said:
"The full, factual account of all sixteen gatherings will be released on the 1st March or at the conclusion of the police investigation, whichever comes sooner"
The Met will take roughly a month per party I reckon.0 -
Yeah what about my fucking betting positions? Have these people no consideration for others?BartholomewRoberts said:
Far too early to say that.El_Capitano said:Starmer must be overjoyed.
Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.
If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.
If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.
Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.
#bozzaoutbyendQ1
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There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...Malmesbury said:
I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....IshmaelZ said:
Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it0 -
Take a step back. The 12 alleged gatherings (of 16) being investigated by the Met include one in Johnson's flat, one he attended in the garden, and one which was to celebrate his birthday.
So the prime minister is under investigation for multiple breaches of his own Covid laws
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1488161561546223618?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ7 -
Question is when they start interviewing under caution.Eabhal said:Could she have said:
"The full, factual account of all sixteen gatherings will be released on the 1st March or at the conclusion of the police investigation, whichever comes sooner"
The Met will take roughly a month per party I reckon.
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There's obviously a lot worse to come that Gray has held back until the police investigation is over but the issue is that the Met will suspiciously take no further action meaning her conclusions will be dismissed as non-criminal. Boris has scraped through IMO and the Tories are going to get battered in May and in 2024. Deservedly.2
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Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.Benpointer said:
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?
Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met0 -
So the
@metpolice
are investigating a gathering in the Prime Minister's flat on 13 November.
Lethal news.
https://twitter.com/robinkellett/status/14881568521227960390 -
What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.HYUFD said:
Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.Benpointer said:
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?
Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
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Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.Jonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point-1 -
ah - okEndillion said:
There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...Malmesbury said:
I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....IshmaelZ said:
Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it0 -
No that should not be the end of the matter. Having committed a criminal offence is far beyond the line which no PM should cross. Lying to Parliament should also be over that line, as should breaking his own Covid guidance. If the Tory party allow this to drag on to the election then they are deservedly lost.BartholomewRoberts said:
Far too early to say that.El_Capitano said:Starmer must be overjoyed.
Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.
If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.
If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.
Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.2 -
It is an absolute fecking disgrace. A few more Tories need to grow some and publicly call on him to resign. A co-ordinated drip drip is needed.CarlottaVance said:Take a step back. The 12 alleged gatherings (of 16) being investigated by the Met include one in Johnson's flat, one he attended in the garden, and one which was to celebrate his birthday.
So the prime minister is under investigation for multiple breaches of his own Covid laws
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1488161561546223618?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ5 -
Just so we're 100% clear, which point? Arrested or jailed?HYUFD said:
Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.Jonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point0 -
I don't agree. We're not America.Jonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
The only one carrying on for Boris is HYUFD and the second Boris is gone HYUFD will get a firmware update and be an uberloyalist for his successor.2 -
That's 8/12 *dates* some dates are multi event.Malmesbury said:
I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....IshmaelZ said:
Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it
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I think you actually just did. Good grief.HYUFD said:
Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.Jonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
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On the whole, I'm surprised you don't think it would be feasible for him to govern the country from a prison cell!HYUFD said:
Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.Benpointer said:
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?
Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met5 -
@JustinTrudeau
Officiel du gouvernement - Canada
This morning, I tested positive for COVID-19. I’m feeling fine – and I’ll continue to work remotely this week while following public health guidelines. Everyone, please get vaccinated and get boosted.0 -
The day Cummings was dismissed!IshmaelZ said:So the
@metpolice
are investigating a gathering in the Prime Minister's flat on 13 November.
Lethal news.
https://twitter.com/robinkellett/status/14881568521227960393 -
Would receiving and paying a FPN, count as evidence of a 'criminal act' in your view?HYUFD said:
Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.Benpointer said:
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?
Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met1 -
"the extensive factual information I have been able to gather" is a shot across the police's bows.MaxPB said:There's obviously a lot worse to come that Gray has held back until the police investigation is over but the issue is that the Met will suspiciously take no further action meaning her conclusions will be dismissed as non-criminal. Boris has scraped through IMO and the Tories are going to get battered in May and in 2024. Deservedly.
0 -
Arrested - this is a FPN offence unless you are alleging misconduct in public officeHYUFD said:
Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.Benpointer said:
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?
Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
And you seem incapable of recognising the optics
Time for Boris to resign3 -
"Was there a party in Downing Street on the 13th November?"
Boris Johnson: "no"
Police are now investigating a party on that date, in his own flat. https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1488164842112491526/video/14 -
I think Johnson will be OK unless the Tories suffer huge losses in the Midlands and Labour gets a 7%+ lead in the NEV like Miliband in 2012.Nigel_Foremain said:
That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.eek said:
Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.Nigel_Foremain said:I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.
May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.
I expect the Tories to get hammered in northern mets but there are small nos. Of seats the Torues can actually lose.
I think the Tories will hold their ground seatswise in Scotland like we're seeing in local elections.
London I'm not sure about although I think the Tories losing Barnet and Wandsworth is already expected by pundits so if Johnson holds either or both of those the Tories can spin a relative success in London.0 -
Boris Johnson, December 8:
"I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no covid rules were broken. That is what I have been repeatedly assured. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to establish all the facts.."
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1488161556986802177?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ2 -
This is a particularly remarkable moment in the life of politicalbetting.comHYUFD said:
Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his countryJonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
(And, no, even saying you're not making a 'direct' comparison doesn't help)7 -
Yep but none of the analysis is going to be bad enough to remove Boris from No 10. Anyone thinking that May 2022 is going to be seriously bad news for the Tories doesn't understand the May 2018 election.Nigel_Foremain said:
That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.eek said:
Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.Nigel_Foremain said:I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.
May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.0 -
Berlusconi and Sarkozy and Fillon were convicted of criminal offences, only Fillon served time though.Jonathan said:
What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.HYUFD said:
Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.Benpointer said:
Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...HYUFD said:
I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.moonshine said:My MP finally replied to me earlier today.
Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…
And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.
On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.
What then?
Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
Berlusconi still leads Forza Italia0 -
The prime minister's lockdown parties are almost as difficult to enumerate as his offspring.Malmesbury said:
ah - okEndillion said:
There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...Malmesbury said:
I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....IshmaelZ said:
Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."HYUFD said:Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.
However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.
There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it1 -
A lot of confidence letters will probably be from people who aren't that bothered about PartyGate but are still annoyed about Boris being Brexiteer-in-chief.0
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Our PM does not offer a great deal in terms of either truth or reconciliation.Heathener said:
This is a particularly remarkable moment in the life of politicalbetting.comHYUFD said:
Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his countryJonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
(And, no, even saying you're not making a 'direct' comparison doesn't help)0 -
Our Lord was arrested and jailed, and worse. If even He could come back from that, I am disappointed by your low expectations for the Dear Leader.HYUFD said:
Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.Jonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point
3 -
It's this kind of thing which ought to unseat the oaf.CarlottaVance said:Boris Johnson, December 8:
"I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no covid rules were broken. That is what I have been repeatedly assured. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to establish all the facts.."
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1488161556986802177?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ
It's down to tory MPs. Will they or won't they?
I'm not sure. I think they're daft enough to leave him in place. Suits me. But doesn't suit the country.1 -
In 14 or so years of reading PB, I think that is the funniest and most unspoofable comment I have seen.HYUFD said:
Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.Jonathan said:If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point13 -
I'm guessing at least 5 or 6 per party, so that's a squillion or so.OnlyLivingBoy said:I actually think that this report is about as bad as it could be for Johnson given the constraints placed on it by the Met investigations. If Tory MPs had any guts they would move now before he destroys their whole brand, but they won't.
0
