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Ipsos-MORI net Johnson satisfaction rating slumps to minus 46% – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Churchill wasn’t very tall, was he?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Lloyd George also looks a bit titchy, in photographs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    MrEd said:

    Mexico City is dodgy as f*ck. I was there in the late 90s and it was bad. I hear it is now x10 worse.
    Hideous. I was last there in about 2015.

    Even tourist areas of the country are now getting sprayed with gunfire



    https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/01/21/canadian-tourist-killed-2-wounded-in-mexico-resort-shooting.html
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    US economy grows at fastest pace in decades

    Good news for Dems hopefully
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    MrEd said:

    Without being accused of going all HYFUD (and, apologies HYFUD, you get a lot of abuse when you shouldn't), Labour should be having a double-digit lead at this point. What is probably even worse is they are struggling to break past 40%
    Yes - we must bear in mind two crucial things:
    (1) This isn't an important issue at all
    (2) This is such an important issue that Labour should be 25% ahead in the polls, so it proves Starmer is useless.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Well that doesnt fit my narrative.

    I might have to resort to Phils " Its an Outlier"

    Not really 9% over that period is not bad for Labour
    It probably is an outlier TBF –– I think there's been a narrowing, reversion to the mean perhaps as the most lurid headlines have quietened somewhat.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    The UC move is weird.

    The Treasury must know it won’t save any money, so should we construe it as a bit of red meat thrown out by Rishi to the fiscal ultras on the back bench.
  • Who are these euphoric Labour supporters who think GE24 is a done deal?

    And I see you are back on the Boris train again. Didn't take long.
    Do you ever read what I say

    I am on Rishi as I have said and want him in office ASAP

    It does not prevent me seeing a wider picture and expressing it, even if it upsets some
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    US economy grows at fastest pace in decades

    Good news for Dems hopefully

    Unlike the UK, the government here decided to invest in the real economy.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    MrEd said:

    Mexico City is dodgy as f*ck. I was there in the late 90s and it was bad. I hear it is now x10 worse.
    I went there a bit over a decade ago, in fact I think we went twice IIRC and it was lovely, so much interesting stuff to see, everyone was really friendly and we walked everywhere or took the metro and had absolutely no problems. It was funny because we stayed with my wife's uncle and aunt in Houston on the way and they were incredulous that we were going on holiday to Mexico but compared to Houston it was like an earthly paradise.
  • Churchill wasn’t very tall, was he?

    Churchill did keep losing elections tbf. Short and bald (and a redhead).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    Never been to the Cape, Leon.

    My comments were based on personal experience rather than statistics, and my own subjective feelings of how safe it felt generally. I was mostly in and around Pietermaritzburg, and spent some time in Durban and the resorts north of Durban beach. Naturally I avoided the more obvious hotspots but even so I've been in much more threatening places in the UK.....Cold Blow Lane and The Shed End for starters.
    i wasn’t trying to wind you up, I’m glad you had nice holibobs. But, objectively, nowhere in the UK is as dangerous as urban South Africa
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Who are these euphoric Labour supporters who think GE24 is a done deal?

    And I see you are back on the Boris train again. Didn't take long.
    My read is that Big G is not on the Boris train.
    He’s on the Rishi train, as he presumably likes grinding the face of UC claimants in the dust.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Churchill did keep losing elections tbf. Short and bald (and a redhead).
    And a speech impediment.
  • The UC move is weird.

    The Treasury must know it won’t save any money, so should we construe it as a bit of red meat thrown out by Rishi to the fiscal ultras on the back bench.

    First, is the UC change down to Rishi at all? If it is, it could be red meat thrown to Boris as part of Operation Red Meat, to prove he is on Team Big Dog, honest guv!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    edited January 2022
    For comparison, the UK had about 650 murders last year

    Mexico has about 70 murders a DAY, so it exceeds our annual toll in just over a week. Phenomenal violence. And that’s ignoring the rapes, tortures, kidnappings, attempted murders, unreported murders. Eeesh
  • And a speech impediment.
    Churchill was no Boris Johnson.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    Good article on the ECB.

    Tom Harrison can’t even talk a good game any more, so why is he still in charge?
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jan/27/tom-harrison-cant-talk-good-game-why-is-he-still-in-charge-ecb-cricket
    ...Presumably O’Farrell could talk eloquently about the problems facing Kodak, where he spent 36 years of his career, or the British Acupuncture Council, which he used to run, or the church in Great Missenden, where he works as a warden, but it felt like an act of satire to put him up in front of a parliamentary committee as the man who’s going to explain how to fix structural racism in the grassroots of English cricket.

    If you want a proper answer ask the people who work at the Ace Programme. Ask the people who work at Chance to Shine. Ask the people who work at the MCC Foundation. Ask anyone but the men who are actually in charge. There was one ray of hope. The new Yorkshire chair, Kamlesh Patel, was as impressive as he has been right through this process. Patel is plain-talking, has a clear idea of what’s wrong and how to begin to fix it. Which isn’t to say he’s always right, just that he doesn’t talk like he thinks he is.

    He spoke proudly of the blind-hiring process Yorkshire used to find their new coach, Ottis Gibson. Through that blind process, Patel said: “We’ve gone from people who have been in the club a long, long time who were reasonable, to having one of the best coaches in the world as head coach.” Imagine what the sport would look like if it picked its chief executives and chairs in the same way....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    I went there a bit over a decade ago, in fact I think we went twice IIRC and it was lovely, so much interesting stuff to see, everyone was really friendly and we walked everywhere or took the metro and had absolutely no problems. It was funny because we stayed with my wife's uncle and aunt in Houston on the way and they were incredulous that we were going on holiday to Mexico but compared to Houston it was like an earthly paradise.
    Mexico City is seriously dangerous. I have witnessed it

    It is tragic because you are otherwise right: the country is fascinating and often stunning and the people are super amiable (if they’re not trying to rape you, rob you, or kill you)
  • My read is that Big G is not on the Boris train.
    He’s on the Rishi train, as he presumably likes grinding the face of UC claimants in the dust.
    Another nasty and unnecessary comment

    The move today seems sensible to open horizons to employment for those who are unemployed

    I assume anyone who has a genuine job prospects but needs time for interviewing and checks will be exempt
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Scott_xP said:

    Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls:
    1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60
    2.Major (Aug 94): -59
    3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56
    3= Foot (Aug 82): -56
    5. Brown (Jul 08): -51
    6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1486713816356249612

    So Johnson is ten points better off than the sainted Mrs T (peace be upon her), and a whole thirteen points better than a Mr Major who still had nearly three years to run as PM? ;)
  • Leon said:

    i wasn’t trying to wind you up, I’m glad you had nice holibobs. But, objectively, nowhere in the UK is as dangerous as urban South Africa
    Thanks, Leon, but I'm a long way from naive.

    SA is a difficult place to evaluate because it's hybrid 1stWorld/3rdWorld. The two co-exist strangely and uneasily at times, but my impression from living there for a bit with friends was that unless you went seriously off-piste, you should be ok most of the time. Obviously you can be unlucky, but then that applies in Primrose Hill too.

    Overall I felt comfortable. Perhaps I don't scare as easily as you. ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317
    Leon said:

    i wasn’t trying to wind you up, I’m glad you had nice holibobs. But, objectively, nowhere in the UK is as dangerous as urban South Africa
    So you've never been to Nechells.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    Thanks, Leon, but I'm a long way from naive.

    SA is a difficult place to evaluate because it's hybrid 1stWorld/3rdWorld. The two co-exist strangely and uneasily at times, but my impression from living there for a bit with friends was that unless you went seriously off-piste, you should be ok most of the time. Obviously you can be unlucky, but then that applies in Primrose Hill too.

    Overall I felt comfortable. Perhaps I don't scare as easily as you. ;)
    Your impression is wrong, in my opinion, but we must agree to differ

    Rural South Africa is an entirely different matter. Get out into the tiny towns, villages, and the mighty wilderness, and it is a wonderful country

    Some of my best travel experiences have been driving myself around SA and Namibia.

    Namibia! Glorious place
  • Russia reports 88,816 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 665 new deaths
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Leon said:

    i wasn’t trying to wind you up, I’m glad you had nice holibobs. But, objectively, nowhere in the UK is as dangerous as urban South Africa

    Another nasty and unnecessary comment

    The move today seems sensible to open horizons to employment for those who are unemployed

    I assume anyone who has a genuine job prospects but needs time for interviewing and checks will be exempt
    You assume too much.
    I’m afraid you have, at least, a failure of imagination when it comes to the lives of those at the bottom.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022
    There's another problem for Dom's project. The trail of revelations starting in December had so much force because the pandemic was becoming a live issue again, with Omicron. In fact I think that's probably why he and his allies he waited all the way 'till then to suddenly start producing those revelations from the start of the pandemic again.

    All this hypocrisy and rule-breaking feels much more egregious to people if it relates to a current situation, and if you cast your mind back to December, it was also the very relevant question of how a Prime Minister so compromised on this kind of rule-breaking could manage a pandemic, in the present, that gave the story so much force. There's definitely many people who are still very angry with him and feel very betrayed about it - he's lost key voters there, I think - but there's another large group for whom, if Covid disappears back over the horizon, it all feels a lot more distant and less relevant.

    That's also probably why , if Cummings has any more lockdown revelations, he probably needs to come up with them quite soon, and his longer-term hope is the moles he seems to have in the government that might keep it fairly unstable.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    The public starting to agree with you and I (and seemingly almost no-one else on here), that the PM’s wife bringing a cake to the office on his birthday, really isn’t the big story the Lobby and Opposition are trying to spin here?
    I've been predicting that he will stay past 2022. In my assessment, the reason is that the backbenchers are unlikely to act, because when it comes down to it, there is no successor who can reinvent his unique achievement in 2019 and hold the north/south electoral coalition together.

    Regarding cakegate and the party stuff, my advice would be to make up an excuse, accept a ticket from the police, and issue an apology. It will just go down as one of those things only Boris Johnson can get away with.


  • Leon said:

    For comparison, the UK had about 650 murders last year

    Mexico has about 70 murders a DAY, so it exceeds our annual toll in just over a week. Phenomenal violence. And that’s ignoring the rapes, tortures, kidnappings, attempted murders, unreported murders. Eeesh

    Would that be very much more than the USA, Leon? They're probably a bit sounder on recording the deaths in the USA but I thought the total murders just involving guns was about 10,000 a year.
  • Sandpit said:

    So Johnson is ten points better off than the sainted Mrs T (peace be upon her), and a whole thirteen points better than a Mr Major who still had nearly three years to run as PM? ;)
    Give the guy a chance. I reckon he can get to -70 easily if he's not defenestrated soon.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Sandpit said:

    So Johnson is ten points better off than the sainted Mrs T (peace be upon her), and a whole thirteen points better than a Mr Major who still had nearly three years to run as PM? ;)
    MORI, Aug 94:

    Lab - 56
    Con - 23
    Lib Dem - 18
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Lloyd George also looks a bit titchy, in photographs.

    And FDR had to use a wheelchair - but TV made a big difference.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    More ruthless than a supper party of Tory MPs.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/27/new-footage-reveals-killer-whales-hunting-and-feeding-on-blue-whales-in-brutal-attacks-aoe
    ...By the time observers reached the site, large chunks of skin and blubber had been stripped off the adult blue whale and most of the dorsal fin had been bitten off. After an hour of relentless attacks, three female killer whales lined up side-by-side and rammed the blue whale on its side, pushing it underwater, while two others attacked its head. The last one swam inside its mouth and started eating its tongue, which is nutritionally dense....
  • Wasting yet more time doing yet more fucking customs forms this time to export products which are zero tariff zero quota zero VAT from one place to another to declare that its the same fucking standards on one side of the border as it is on the other.

    Seriously, this is why the Border Operating Model doesn't work and why we're completely gumming up our border so that everything takes an eternity to get through. Pointless red tape to declare that no tariff is payable, that no vat is payable, that no standards are different because our standards are their standards are our fucking standards. What is the point in all this?

    Before some arse says "but you voted for this", no I didn't. "This" is the Boris Brexit deal. Where after decades of cutting red tape cost and petty bureaucracy the Tory party decided to fuck all that off and impose as much as possible. Not because we actually have diverged and there is anything to check. But because we might want to do so at some point in the future.

    Madness. And still prannocks say "but this is much better for the country than we had before". Is it fuck.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Let's imagine I'm a Tory MP, and I'm thinking - well, Boris is over the worst on Partygate, and there's some evidence that the polls are shifting back towards us a bit. So maybe I'll stick with him.

    But I then ask myself a second question. If Boris has ridden out this storm, am I confident that there won't be any more huge pratfalls between now and the next GE? And the answer I give is no. It's almost certain that even if he gets over this one, there will be more to come on something or other - he's bound to get himself into a heap of trouble. So I think I'll write to Mr. Brady anyway.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,132
    Ben Wallace says every aspect of the Kabul evacuation was "under his authority", to defend Johnson now.

    But remember when Raab was criticised for being on holiday in Crete while Kabul fell? He ALSO claimed he was in charge of the entire operation from his hotel room, throughout. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1486727903278559241/photo/1

    I know this is barely a ripple in the swirling fucking vortex of lies that is this government, but it is SO emblematic of their MO: Absolutely in charge of a thing when it suits them. Nothing to do with the same thing when it goes wrong. They are literally just making shit up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,548
    Long piece on Russia's military capability.


    "Russia used the war in Syria, experts say, as a laboratory to refine tactics and weaponry, and to gain combat experience for much of its force.

    Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu said last month that all ground troop commanders, 92 percent of air force pilots and 62 percent of the Navy had combat experience."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/world/europe/russia-military-putin-ukraine.html
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317

    My read is that Big G is not on the Boris train.
    He’s on the Rishi train, as he presumably likes grinding the face of UC claimants in the dust.
    Rishi's four square behind Big Dog.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    edited January 2022

    Another nasty and unnecessary comment

    The move today seems sensible to open horizons to employment for those who are unemployed

    I assume anyone who has a genuine job prospects but needs time for interviewing and checks will be exempt
    Assumptions make an ass of you, especially when DWP are involved - computer says No and because I (as a DWP haven't reached my quote for Sanctions this week) on the Sanctions list you go

    Oh and believe it or not DWP workers have Sanctions target they are supposed to meet otherwise its off to the other side of the counter.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821
    Dentist appointment in central Manchester today. Thought the best choice of transport from my suburb 6 miles out would be bike.
    The journey was fine, and cheaper and more reliable than any of other options. Which was a positive. And it also allowed me to call by a deli in Chorlton on the way home and get something for tea and some cake.
    Since when I have been absolutely starving and have done little but eat cake.
    My point is this: the health benefits of cycling may well be overstated. (I'm not convinced the day's been a positive dentally, either, to be frank).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,525
    edited January 2022

    Would that be very much more than the USA, Leon? They're probably a bit sounder on recording the deaths in the USA but I thought the total murders just involving guns was about 10,000 a year.
    Murder rate in Mexico is x7 the US (and that's if we believe Mexico accurately records all murders, when there is plenty of evidence in central america that local officials with do unofficial deals with cartels to "disappear" people rather than murder them i.e. when you murder people can you not leave the bodies lying around, thanks).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    I have eaten six olives in 2 days
  • Leon said:

    Your impression is wrong, in my opinion, but we must agree to differ

    Rural South Africa is an entirely different matter. Get out into the tiny towns, villages, and the mighty wilderness, and it is a wonderful country

    Some of my best travel experiences have been driving myself around SA and Namibia.

    Namibia! Glorious place
    The no difference, Leon. I'm merely reporting what I found. You are quoting stats, and maybe your experiences as a flint-knapper. We can both in a way be right.

    One thing I would say about SA is that you could very easily envisage it going the way of Zimbabwe. It doesn't have to be like that, but even a doe-eyed optimist like me can see how it could easily happen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited January 2022

    Another nasty and unnecessary comment

    The move today seems sensible to open horizons to employment for those who are unemployed

    I assume anyone who has a genuine job prospects but needs time for interviewing and checks will be exempt
    You assume too much.
    I’m afraid you have, at least, a failure of imagination when it comes to the lives of those at the bottom.

    My eldest son has been at the bottom for two years with deep PTSD and mental health problems, not able to leave his bedroom or work, with no income and recently enduring over 16 courses of ECT

    He was mentally scared attending ground zero in the Christchurch earthquake and his sobbing teafull recollection of that time over the phone to me a few weeks ago broke my heart

    I would just say I have been to NZ several times but have not encountered a Kiwi who is not generous and kind

    You have no idea how I feel
  • Murder rate in Mexico is x7 the US (and that's if we believe Mexico accurately records all murders, when there is plenty of evidence in central america that local officials with do unofficial deals with cartels to "disappear" people rather than murder them).
    And the US vis-a-vis the UK?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I wonder of BoJo is waiting for the heat to turn down a bit so he can resign without it looking as though he was forced from office?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    edited January 2022
    tlg86 said:

    MORI, Aug 94:

    Lab - 56
    Con - 23
    Lib Dem - 18
    Speaking to a pollster of that era flagged up the errors of making that comparison (and with Ed Miliband).

    The subsequent elections showed that the pre 1997 election polling and ditto 2015 massively overstated Labour, I think the final Ipsos MORI poll before GE 1997 gave Labour I think a 24% lead versus an actual lead of 12%.

    Edit the final Ipsos MORI had a Labour lead of 18% and it was the one day before that had a 24% Labour lead, point still stands.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821
    In more 'woke doesn't exist' news, Exeter Chiefs are to rebrand after being accused of cultural appropriation (by, if I remember the original story correctly, an utter pain in the arse).
    They will retain the name but base it on Celtic imagery instead.
    Although I do sort of get it I'm slightly puzzled as to why cultural appropriation of Native Americans is wrong but of Celts is ok.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2022/01/27/exeter-chiefs-replace-native-american-themed-imagery-end-season/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,525
    edited January 2022
    I know a number of SAs that have moved to the UK and every single one of them say its because of the incredible high levels of violent crime and not just theoretical on paper numbers, everybody they know in SA have been a victim and often despite living in rich gates areas with private security.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Wasting yet more time doing yet more fucking customs forms this time to export products which are zero tariff zero quota zero VAT from one place to another to declare that its the same fucking standards on one side of the border as it is on the other.

    Seriously, this is why the Border Operating Model doesn't work and why we're completely gumming up our border so that everything takes an eternity to get through. Pointless red tape to declare that no tariff is payable, that no vat is payable, that no standards are different because our standards are their standards are our fucking standards. What is the point in all this?

    Before some arse says "but you voted for this", no I didn't. "This" is the Boris Brexit deal. Where after decades of cutting red tape cost and petty bureaucracy the Tory party decided to fuck all that off and impose as much as possible. Not because we actually have diverged and there is anything to check. But because we might want to do so at some point in the future.

    Madness. And still prannocks say "but this is much better for the country than we had before". Is it fuck.

    Dear RP

    You voted for Brexit didnt you?

    Regards

    some arse
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I wonder of BoJo is waiting for the heat to turn down a bit so he can resign without it looking as though he was forced from office?

    No

    Desperate to cling on
  • Another nasty and unnecessary comment

    The move today seems sensible to open horizons to employment for those who are unemployed

    I assume anyone who has a genuine job prospects but needs time for interviewing and checks will be exempt
    They won't. They will be ground in the dirt as UC was designed to do. I'm not saying as GW was that you personally support that, but the lived experience of people in that position is face grinding.
  • The royals are disgusting sex obsessed tossers, so perfect for the role of the Supreme Governor of the Church of England.

    Edward VIII letter telling how he helped his brother George VI have affair with the original Australian 'good-looking Sheila' is unearthed 103 years on

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10448115/Edward-VIII-letter-helped-George-VI-affair-unearthed-103-years-on.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Russia reports 88,816 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 665 new deaths

    Don't you ever tire of posting these? Some country, somewhere, will always report a big number. We can find them ourselves. Sorry to be grumpy but it's just spam on the thread TBH.
  • I wonder of BoJo is waiting for the heat to turn down a bit so he can resign without it looking as though he was forced from office?

    Perhaps, although I suspect it is the various feel-good events that start in the summer that Boris has in mind: the Platinum Jubilee; the Commonwealth Games in sunny Birmingham; the World Cup and many others. Then resign next year to make some serious wedge.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Leon said:

    I have eaten six olives in 2 days

    I have had 3 shits over the same timescale
  • Dear RP

    You voted for Brexit didnt you?

    Regards

    some arse
    Brexit is leaving the EU.

    Our problems now are because we have left the EEA

    The EEA is not the EU.

    We could have created a free trade deal with the EU which allowed free trade to continue to flow. We have chosen not to. That was done by the Conservative government elected in 2019. Which I did not vote for.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821

    Don't you ever tire of posting these? Some country, somewhere, will always report a big number. We can find them ourselves. Sorry to be grumpy but it's just spam on the thread TBH.
    Russia's daily deaths are suspiciously consistent. Far less day to day variation than you might expect.

    Of course, Russia's figures are suspicious in other ways too. I think I remember it said in 2020 that the only way their excess deaths could be explained against their rather modest reported covid deaths was if there was another unreported epidemic going on in Russia alongside covid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,525
    edited January 2022

    Don't you ever tire of posting these? Some country, somewhere, will always report a big number. We can find them ourselves. Sorry to be grumpy but it's just spam on the thread TBH.
    I think you are being massively grunpy. i only post a a very small number of updates ( < 5) these days just to give an flavour of where covid is currently very high. Its not like i am posting the daily numbers from every country in Europe etc.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022

    Let's imagine I'm a Tory MP, and I'm thinking - well, Boris is over the worst on Partygate, and there's some evidence that the polls are shifting back towards us a bit. So maybe I'll stick with him.

    But I then ask myself a second question. If Boris has ridden out this storm, am I confident that there won't be any more huge pratfalls between now and the next GE? And the answer I give is no. It's almost certain that even if he gets over this one, there will be more to come on something or other - he's bound to get himself into a heap of trouble. So I think I'll write to Mr. Brady anyway.

    Yes, and I think Cummings is still the other crucial factor there, too. He seems to have several allies in government, and he's going to keep going on and on. The Nowzat Dogs stuff is from way after most of the pandemic, for instance.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I think you are being massively grunpy. i only post a few per day these days, just to give an flavour of where covid is currently very high. Its not like i am posting the daily numbers from every country in Europe etc.
    It seems like you are! Your posts are often excellent – these don't fall into that category.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited January 2022

    I know a number of SAs that have moved to the UK and every single one of them say its because of the incredible high levels of violent crime and not just theoretical on paper numbers, everybody they know in SA have been a victim and often despite living in rich gates areas with private security.

    Yes, plenty of Saffas out here too, and many shocking stories of murder, rape, kidnap, armed robbery that come across as being everyday occupancies in much of the country.

    It’s always somewhere I have wanted to visit, but think I might leave it a while longer. Same as Mexico and Brazil will likely be the two remaining pieces of my lifetime F1 race jigsaw.
  • Yes, and I think Cummings is still the other crucial factor there, too. He seems to have several allies in government, and he's going to keep going on and on.
    I think Dom's going to go silent.

    He's not going to want to say or give evidence that might lead to the CPS grounds to charge him.
  • They won't. They will be ground in the dirt as UC was designed to do. I'm not saying as GW was that you personally support that, but the lived experience of people in that position is face grinding.
    I found his personal comments unnecessary and nasty

    He has no idea how I feel about those less fortunate and in particular our own family crisis with my eldest son who remains seriously ill and having been unable to work for two years
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Brexit is leaving the EU.

    Our problems now are because we have left the EEA

    The EEA is not the EU.

    We could have created a free trade deal with the EU which allowed free trade to continue to flow. We have chosen not to. That was done by the Conservative government elected in 2019. Which I did not vote for.

    Brexit is leaving the EU.

    Our problems now are because we have left the EEA

    The EEA is not the EU.

    We could have created a free trade deal with the EU which allowed free trade to continue to flow. We have chosen not to. That was done by the Conservative government elected in 2019. Which I did not vote for.
    Me too we do have a few things in common
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644
    edited January 2022

    I know a number of SAs that have moved to the UK and every single one of them say its because of the incredible high levels of violent crime and not just theoretical on paper numbers, everybody they know in SA have been a victim and often despite living in rich gates areas with private security.

    Fwiw, Francis, I was in Hilton, a suburb of PMB generally referred to as 'a white enclave'. It isn't 'gated' though, and I didn't notice any of these. You certainly notice a mix of whites and blacks around generally and you don't feel inclined to cross the road if you see a group of young black males walking towards you.

    The only time I froze a bit was when I saw a heavily armed security guard outside a bank, but that was because of a pending delivery and the fact that banks remain a soft target for armed robbers. Apart from that I can't recall seeing anybody but a policeman with a gun. That would not be true in many parts of the 1st World, notably the USA where it is common to see guns in civilian hands.

    The malls were generally friendly and warm places to visit. I'm sure I could have found some nastier spots easily enough, but I would have had to go look for them.

    I'm not disputing your friends' experiences. I can only report my own honestly and fairly.
  • Fwiw, Francis, I was in Hilton, a suburb of PMB generally referred to as 'a white enclave'. It isn't 'gated' though, and I didn't notice any of these. You certainly notice a mix of whites and blacks around generally and you don't feel inclined to cross the road if you see a group of young black males walking towards you.

    The only time I froze a bit was when I saw a heavily armed security guard outside a bank, but that was because of a pending delivery and the fact that banks remain a soft target for armed robbers. Apart from that I can't recall seeing anybody but a policeman with a gun. That would not be true in many parts of the 1st World, notably the USA where it is common to see guns in civilian hands.

    The malls were generally friendly and warm places to visit. I'm sure I could have found some nastier spots easily enough, but I would have had to go look for them.

    I'm not disputing your friends' experiences. I can only report my own honestly and fairly.
    The thing is the stats back up my friends experiences as the norm not yours.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022

    I think Dom's going to go silent.

    He's not going to want to say or give evidence that might lead to the CPS grounds to charge him.
    But he seems to have a hotline to people inside government on all sorts of other stuff - look at the dogs issue, as mentioned.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,525
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, plenty of Saffas out here too, and many shocking stories of murder, rape, kidnap, armed robbery that come across as being every occupancies in much of the country.

    It’s always somewhere I have wanted to visit, but think I might leave it a while longer. Same as Mexico and Brazil will likely be the two remaining pieces of my lifetime F1 race jigsaw.
    Its the rape / threat of rape, especially with the prevalence of AIDs that is a particular scary "weapon" commonly used against individuals.

    I have a SA female friend whose tells a story of a friendship group, the guys went off to golf, girls had a pamper party, she popped out to get some bits and pieces, came back, gang had broken in, raped 15 women there, to make them give up all their valuables etc.

    That would be national news here (see the Sarah Everard story was), SA, just another home invasion.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,132
    Official figures show the UK has recorded 338 new COVID-related deaths and 96,871 new cases

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Cookie said:

    In more 'woke doesn't exist' news, Exeter Chiefs are to rebrand after being accused of cultural appropriation (by, if I remember the original story correctly, an utter pain in the arse).
    They will retain the name but base it on Celtic imagery instead.
    Although I do sort of get it I'm slightly puzzled as to why cultural appropriation of Native Americans is wrong but of Celts is ok.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2022/01/27/exeter-chiefs-replace-native-american-themed-imagery-end-season/

    Especially as the border is the other side of Plymouth from Exeter ...
  • The thing is the stats back up my friends experiences as the norm not yours.
    I'm not saying my experiences are the norm. What does that mean anyway? There are parts of PMB which you just don't visit. Everybody knows what the norm is there.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Farooq said:

    I don't want to get too dragged into this discussion, but most people in the UK are descended from the pre-Saxon native peoples, including Celts, the Anglo-Saxon incomers, AND the Norman incomers post-Hastings.
    Probably few people here have significant Native American heritage. Moreover, Celtic culture is basically extinct. All that's left are some pockets of Brythonic and Goidelic language, which are grand-daughter languages of any possible proto-Celtic language. Celtic as an identity is distant and loosely held, in much the same way as, say, Goths. There comes a point when there's nobody really left to feel offended. When was the last time you met someone who described their identity as "Celt"?
    Just go to Glasgow on a Saturday.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317

    They won't. They will be ground in the dirt as UC was designed to do. I'm not saying as GW was that you personally support that, but the lived experience of people in that position is face grinding.
    Have these peasants not got benevolent wealthy benefactors or Newspaper Magnates they can rely on when they run out of cash... that is how Boris Johnson gets by when times are tight, so what's wrong with them?
  • Yes, and I think Cummings is still the other crucial factor there, too. He seems to have several allies in government, and he's going to keep going on and on. The Nowzat Dogs stuff is from way after most of the pandemic, for instance.
    More to the point, Kabul (and, for that matter, at least some of the parties) came after Dominic Cummings had been sacked from Number 10. Is it lazy journalism or cheap politics to ascribe every revelation to Cummings?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644
    edited January 2022

    I have had 3 shits over the same timescale
    Ronnie and Reggie Kray were walking through Hackney one day when Ronnie says 'Hang on Reg, I need to do a shit.'

    Reggie says 'I'd better come with you in case I know him.'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    Sandpit said:

    The public starting to agree with you and I (and seemingly almost no-one else on here), that the PM’s wife bringing a cake to the office on his birthday, really isn’t the big story the Lobby and Opposition are trying to spin here?
    Half right. The public doesn't really care about the cake. Boris' half truths and outright lies and untrustworthiness are what's pulling his personal ratings to the toilet & that's why he needs to go.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    More to the point, Kabul (and, for that matter, at least some of the parties) came after Dominic Cummings had been sacked from Number 10. Is it lazy journalism or cheap politics to ascribe every revelation to Cummings?
    Wasn't the Kabul stuff published by the FAC? Straight forward sabotage by tugendhat, and good for him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,218
    Scott_xP said:

    Official figures show the UK has recorded 338 new COVID-related deaths and 96,871 new cases

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

    Copy and past - from Sky?

    Rather than https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    Fail
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738

    Have these peasants not got benevolent wealthy benefactors or Newspaper Magnates they can rely on when they run out of cash... that is how Boris Johnson gets by when times are tight, so what's wrong with them?
    They aren't Boris.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    “Sadly Barry Cryer passed away today, aged 86. Do you know who he was?”

    “I’m sorry, I haven’t a clue”.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022

    More to the point, Kabul (and, for that matter, at least some of the parties) came after Dominic Cummings had been sacked from Number 10. Is it lazy journalism or cheap politics to ascribe every revelation to Cummings?
    I don't think so really, because he's intimated or flagged up a lot of revelations that later seem to be released by someone else, which makes him seem like the go-to person or link-man for leaks.

    I was thinking it could be it was the police intervention that really upset his plans this week, both delaying the actual report and making it harder him for leak at any time. Maybe he's had to shelve all the stunners he had planned for just this period. He would certainly know that waiting another few days, a week, or however long it is until the report is released won't do him any good at all.
  • Farooq said:

    I don't want to get too dragged into this discussion, but most people in the UK are descended from the pre-Saxon native peoples, including Celts, the Anglo-Saxon incomers, AND the Norman incomers post-Hastings.
    Probably few people here have significant Native American heritage. Moreover, Celtic culture is basically extinct. All that's left are some pockets of Brythonic and Goidelic language, which are grand-daughter languages of any possible proto-Celtic language. Celtic as an identity is distant and loosely held, in much the same way as, say, Goths. There comes a point when there's nobody really left to feel offended. When was the last time you met someone who described their identity as "Celt"?
    Richard Burton was once being pestered by a pub bore who insisted they were both 'Celts', which the bore pronounced with a soft C.

    'No', replied Burton, 'I'm a Selt, you're a Sunt.'
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Cookie said:

    Dentist appointment in central Manchester today. Thought the best choice of transport from my suburb 6 miles out would be bike.
    The journey was fine, and cheaper and more reliable than any of other options. Which was a positive. And it also allowed me to call by a deli in Chorlton on the way home and get something for tea and some cake.
    Since when I have been absolutely starving and have done little but eat cake.
    My point is this: the health benefits of cycling may well be overstated. (I'm not convinced the day's been a positive dentally, either, to be frank).

    LOL! Totally understand and plays into our previous discussion (or the discussion on here) which noted that some people "exercise to eat" which I appreciate isn't the case here.

    I do remember however that I was at my fittest (while at an office) when I had a sausage bap (+ red sauce, obvs) every day then went to smash it at the gym as I had a lot of energy.

    Did you have breakfast before you started out because that might be a clue - if you exercise hungry then your body begins to crave calories that will overshoot what you have used up.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821

    Brexit is leaving the EU.

    Our problems now are because we have left the EEA

    The EEA is not the EU.

    We could have created a free trade deal with the EU which allowed free trade to continue to flow. We have chosen not to. That was done by the Conservative government elected in 2019. Which I did not vote for.
    When we voted in the referendum, we had to weigh up:
    - what was the outcome we wanted.
    - a few scenarios of what might have happened had we voted remain, the positives and negatives of each, and the chances of each
    - a few scenarios of what might have happened had we voted leave, the positives and negatives of each, and the chances of each.

    I don't think anyone can be wholly blamed for not getting the outcome they wanted, as long as they went into the process with their eyes open.

    My preference was also an EEA-type deal. I thought the chances of getting it were less than 50% - though I thought we would be prevented from getting it more out of European spite than Remainer obstinance. I hold 2017-2019 Remainers partly responsible, though in all honesty European spite played a not insignificant part in Theresa May's deal not being particularly attractive, along with Theresa May's negotiating team not negotiating particularly effectively. But there we are.

    We may still end up with an EEA deal - which we never would had we voted Remain.

    I took - and still take - the slightly niche position that Remain was the high risk option, and that the worst case scenario of leaving is nothing like as scary as the worst case scenario of remaining: further integration, democracy whittling away bit by bit, incompetent technocrats in power, the Euro exploding and being significantly on the hook for it. Troublesome borders seem minor and soluble problems in comparison.

    Anyway, the point is, it was a massively complex weighing up exercise and Rochdale's decisions were reasonable at the time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    edited January 2022

    Wasting yet more time doing yet more fucking customs forms this time to export products which are zero tariff zero quota zero VAT from one place to another to declare that its the same fucking standards on one side of the border as it is on the other.

    Seriously, this is why the Border Operating Model doesn't work and why we're completely gumming up our border so that everything takes an eternity to get through. Pointless red tape to declare that no tariff is payable, that no vat is payable, that no standards are different because our standards are their standards are our fucking standards. What is the point in all this?

    Before some arse says "but you voted for this", no I didn't. "This" is the Boris Brexit deal. Where after decades of cutting red tape cost and petty bureaucracy the Tory party decided to fuck all that off and impose as much as possible. Not because we actually have diverged and there is anything to check. But because we might want to do so at some point in the future.

    Madness. And still prannocks say "but this is much better for the country than we had before". Is it fuck.

    Look on the bright side, VAT returns are simpler now :D & no intrastat *

    * Except in NI
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821
    Farooq said:

    I don't want to get too dragged into this discussion, but most people in the UK are descended from the pre-Saxon native peoples, including Celts, the Anglo-Saxon incomers, AND the Norman incomers post-Hastings.
    Probably few people here have significant Native American heritage. Moreover, Celtic culture is basically extinct. All that's left are some pockets of Brythonic and Goidelic language, which are grand-daughter languages of any possible proto-Celtic language. Celtic as an identity is distant and loosely held, in much the same way as, say, Goths. There comes a point when there's nobody really left to feel offended. When was the last time you met someone who described their identity as "Celt"?
    All fair points - but equally I would be astonished were Native Americans up in arms because of the brand identity of a rugby club from Devon.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Farooq said:

    I don't want to get too dragged into this discussion, but most people in the UK are descended from the pre-Saxon native peoples, including Celts, the Anglo-Saxon incomers, AND the Norman incomers post-Hastings.
    Probably few people here have significant Native American heritage. Moreover, Celtic culture is basically extinct. All that's left are some pockets of Brythonic and Goidelic language, which are grand-daughter languages of any possible proto-Celtic language. Celtic as an identity is distant and loosely held, in much the same way as, say, Goths. There comes a point when there's nobody really left to feel offended. When was the last time you met someone who described their identity as "Celt"?
    A lot of what passes for Celtic culture is an invention of the Romantic period, as with much of the ancient origins of the various national identities of Europe. It serves fairly directly as the bedrock for non-English identity in the islands of Britain and Ireland.

    Is Exeter far enough West to claim a lineage from the "Celts" in the South West of England? I don't know.

    On the one hand it is all a nonsense, but on the other hand it touches at a deep level on people's sense of identity. It's easy to feel a bit annoyed that they're exploiting other people's identity to make money. That doesn't sit comfortably with me.

    Exeter has a long and colourful history as a Roman garrison, home to early English poetry, a loyal Royalist city, and more. Surely the rugby club can create a club identity based on some of the real local history instead of lazily appropriating somebody else's?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821
    TOPPING said:

    LOL! Totally understand and plays into our previous discussion (or the discussion on here) which noted that some people "exercise to eat" which I appreciate isn't the case here.

    I do remember however that I was at my fittest (while at an office) when I had a sausage bap (+ red sauce, obvs) every day then went to smash it at the gym as I had a lot of energy.

    Did you have breakfast before you started out because that might be a clue - if you exercise hungry then your body begins to crave calories that will overshoot what you have used up.
    Sadly I do not have that excuse! I had a perfectly adequate breakfast. I think I've just managed to trick myself into eating an excess of cake.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,983
    edited January 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Especially as the border is the other side of Plymouth from Exeter ...
    The club Wasps also got involved:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/oct/12/wasps-ask-premiership-to-consider-ban-on-exeter-chiefs-headdresses

    But did anyone ask the eponymous insects used on their logo if it was okay? If not isn't that also a form of cultural appropriation? To deny it is surely pure speciesism.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Farooq said:

    That's a no thanks from me.
    Seriously, though, I think the problem is that Celtic is a sort of collective word for the ancient British and Irish - and tdheir identities are still active: Cornish, Welsh, Irish, Gael [but not Scottish: that's a mixture, which is why Celtic Fringe is so stupid as a political lazy shorthand]. Irish and Gaelic FC would sound daft ...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    I see Dave Nellist is standing in the Erdington By Election

    As an MP he only ever took the Salary of his "average Constituent" donated the rest to his CLP

  • Sandpit said:

    “Sadly Barry Cryer passed away today, aged 86. Do you know who he was?”

    “I’m sorry, I haven’t a clue”.

    Am I correct in thinking that a lot of his best work you won't know it was him as he was ghost writer of lots of jokes for much more famous comedians?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    The club Wasps also got involved:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/oct/12/wasps-ask-premiership-to-consider-ban-on-exeter-chiefs-headdresses

    But did anyone ask the eponymous insects used on their logo if it was okay? If not isn't that also a form of cultural appropriation? To deny it is surely pure speciesism.
    Buzz off!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Cookie said:

    All fair points - but equally I would be astonished were Native Americans up in arms because of the brand identity of a rugby club from Devon.
    Not to say a hockey team in Chicago.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Scott_xP said:

    Official figures show the UK has recorded 338 new COVID-related deaths and 96,871 new cases

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

    Quite a substantial fall on last Thursday's figure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Cookie said:

    Sadly I do not have that excuse! I had a perfectly adequate breakfast. I think I've just managed to trick myself into eating an excess of cake.
    Well tbh it's been on all our minds of late.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Cookie said:

    All fair points - but equally I would be astonished were Native Americans up in arms because of the brand identity of a rugby club from Devon.
    Not the strongest candidate for "Woke Watch" - must be thin pickings these days.
  • Brexit is leaving the EU.

    Our problems now are because we have left the EEA

    The EEA is not the EU.

    We could have created a free trade deal with the EU which allowed free trade to continue to flow. We have chosen not to. That was done by the Conservative government elected in 2019. Which I did not vote for.
    Not surprisingly I suppose, I agree with you 100%. Even worse this is not 20:20 hindsight. There were plenty of us saying this before the referendum.

    Mind you it is why I am both still very happy with my vote and in the long term prospects. Get some adults in number 10 - from whatever party it might be - and the fixes are not that difficult. It just takes willing and common sense. I believe Starmer gets this, as do a fair few on the Tory side. Get rid of Boris one way or another and we can start to put things right.
This discussion has been closed.