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Ipsos-MORI net Johnson satisfaction rating slumps to minus 46% – politicalbetting.com
Ipsos-MORI net Johnson satisfaction rating slumps to minus 46% – politicalbetting.com
Although there has been something of an uptick for the Tories in some voting polls the latest from Ipsos-MORI in tonight’s London Standard is very bad for Johnson. A total of 70% said they were dissatisfied with him compared with just 24% saying they were satisfied.
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Steel baron wrote to senior Tory thanking him for his “personally instrumental” role in facilitating loans now subject to fraud investigation.
💣from @cynthiao (w/ help from @PickardJE and me): https://www.ft.com/content/fe8c33e7-a846-4f98-ab33-68b580c6896f
I would say mainstream Lib Dem opinion is equidistant from the current manifestation of the Tories, and Corbynism. Even in the last election though, the overriding issue of Brexit pushed more to vote tactically for Labour than for the Tories.
With Starmer heading Labour they are now clearly closer to the Lib Dems than the government is. To bring them back into equidistance you'd need something like a Rory Stewart-led Tory party with a positive attitude to Europe and the JRMs, Patels, Raabs and the rest of that shower in the backbench wilderness.
"the 1536 Act for Punishment of Sturdy Vagabonds and Beggars was passed. This more severe law stated that those caught outside of their parish without work would be punished by being whipped through the streets. If caught a second time they could lose an ear and if caught a third time they could be executed"
Three for one - inclouding a spot of flage and the death penalty. Just the kind of Henry VIII legislation they are calling for in the streets of Epping.
What the polls are saying to me is that this isn't 1995 - it's perfectly salvageable for the Tories as Labour are some way from sealing the deal but they have this very big dead weight on them, and the longer he stays the more he contaminates the brand.
I know the response is "but 2019". However, 2022 Johnson simply isn't 2019 Johnson - the joke isn't funny any more for most people. Also, of course, 2022 Starmer isn't 2019 Corbyn.
The people making this policy don't understand the real world.
Given that everything else is taxed to the point the laffer curve goes Nope you are having a laugh.
I suspect that even this forthcoming Employer NI increase is a step 2 far and we will start to see a whole set of dodgy deals to mitigate it. Employee NI is hard to avoid, even with the new IR35 rules there are ways to reduce the employer NI side of things.
If I read the stats right, every PM with ratings this bad has either been deposed before the next election or lost the election.
I thought Tony Blair's cronyism and cash for honours was bad enough, and John Major's sleaze regime, but this is something else.
Corruption on an industrial scale because the man at the top is bereft of one iota of morality.
Well, North Wales
LIVE: Boris Johnson visits North Wales ahead of publication of Sue Gray report
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/live-boris-johnson-visits-north-22891437#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60158264
Lampard is now favourite to get the Everton job so I suspect the story is going to go
Lampard gets the job
Everton are relegated (highly likely given the issues, the time left to fix things and Newcastle's spending)
Rooney arrives in the Summer to return them to glory.
We still need to offload players for cash this window, despite Digne.
I think Newcastle end up being safe if they do a trolley dash before the transfer deadline.
Burnley might be safe if they win the majority of their games in hand.
Norwich I fear are doomed despite Dean Smith's good work.
I think Everton should be safe but if DCL or Richarilson end up getting injured I think they might be screwed.
The problem that the Conservatives have is that Boris Johnson has not just contaminated the brand, he has absolutely poisoned it and killed it off. There is no way back for them.
All the Conservatives I know have switched over to the Lib Dems. There may be some who have switched to the Labour Party - but not round here. Tactical voting is working with a vengeance - and the electors are doing it spontaneously.
Simon Calder
EXCLUSIVE
Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on
Qantas
.
Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1486663145137614856?s=20
'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
It is also similar to Tony Blair’s lowest in Jan 2007 of 68/25, while his successor Gordon Brown had results at this level at his low points in 2008/9.'
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-satisfaction-rating-partygate-record-low-ipsos-mori-poll-b979124
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
I would be very surprised if the Party can remained unscathed from what the public have seen recently
Major was not pre 1997 either and like Boris no alternative Tory leaders led Labour in the hypothetical polls then either
Perhaps Johnson is just after some tiffin.
And we all know what OGH thinks about unrepresentative sub-samples...
Edit: Foxy got there before me!!
It was exactly the same in 1992-7. People thought that because John Major had pulled the cat out of the bag at the last minute with his stunning, and totally surprising, victory in 1992 that he would repeat the feat five years later.
Stay arrogant and myopic. Suits me.
Had Redwood led the Tories in 1997 even more Tory MPs would have lost their seats than did under Major
She would have had a team with her including security which has been suggested could have been 50 or more
Mike Butcher
@mikebutcher
Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
In theory at least the LDs could have gone with Brown in 2010 instead of Cameron and Brown stayed in power
I take the point on board about leader ratings but I also note a tendency on the party line here to favour pollsters who agree with them and downplay those which don't. Undoubtedly on voting intention there has been a narrowing and it's silly to ignore it. #BBI!
Anyway, cheers PB
The actual figure is 5.7 million. The roll out is roughly 60% complete, so the eventual figure could be around 9.5 million.
Of the 5.7 million, 1.7 million are searching for work. Another 1.3 million are expected to search for more work or prepare for it, for a total of 3 million.
There is a reasonably strong positive correlation between being on unemployment related benefits and labour vote share, last I checked. I might run that code on UC only and see what crops up.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
England
Lab 44%
Con 38%
LD 11%
Scotland
SNP 51%
Con 23%
Lab 16%
LD 10%
Wales
Lab 54%
PC 19%
Con 15%
(Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard; 19-25 January; 1,059)
"Umm Qasr is a city similar to Southampton," UK ex-defence minister Geoff Hoon said in the Commons yesterday. "He's either never been to Southampton, or he's never been to Umm Qasr" says a British squaddie patrolling Umm Qasr. Another soldier added: "There's no beer, no prostitutes and people are shooting at us. It's more like Portsmouth".
What you quickly discover is how much wealth is actually stored in primary residences so that will become an inevitable means of attack.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
“I’d rather risk beheading by Taliban than live in Wick”
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/8113251/afghanistan-refugee-taliban-scotland/
And that is how I knew he was here as the Great Orme was in the background
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1486697056773283842?s=20
The last time I looked outside of London the next most cost effective place was Sofia (productivity way lower but wages low enough to compensate). So it will be another one for Dublin where they wave most people through.
When they are the highest in 70 years, and people are choosing between heat and eat, not so much.
Same with Sunak's furlough fraud. People will not forgive and they will not tolerate. Nor should they.
London -21
Midlands -22
South -28
North -42
England -30
Wales -54
Scotland -58
N Ireland -77
(Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard; 19-25 January; 1,059)
Frontiers are a mess everywhere. Ironically, the easiest one I’ve encountered since Covid began is here, Sri Lanka, at Colombo airport
It is a silly story
Rather different reasons from you for your irrational dislike of that fine burgh.
https://twitter.com/cleanupgambling/status/1486595809038770176
Who can blame him. i have been there
*shudder*