Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
There is a but. If you regard LD as centre, equally unallied with left or right it leaves 2 puzzles:
1) Why are there almost no Lab v LD seats, while there are loads of Con v LD seats - the obvious explanation being that in parts of the country the LDs take the position of the non Tory vote, but not the position of the non Lab vote
2) Why is it assumed (rightly I think) that the LDs will in some way prop up a Labour government but not a Tory one, following the fall out after 2010.
It's much easier when you're out of power to make a case for change. It's easier to imagine the Lib Dems aligning with the party that's taking power than the one that's on the verge of losing it. Plus the fact that the Conservatives have lurched in a more authoritarian direction that doesn't suit Lib Dem sensibilities. That's not so much a left-right thing. 2010 was about finances, but the next election will be about other things as well.
The next election will very likely be about tax and finances. We're in a big hole and taxes will have to go up, Labour have an opportunity here to propose taxing older people and ensuring working people aren't squeezed even further. I think the Lib Dems might be interested in that too.
We are going to end up with a wealth tax as it's virtual impossible to avoid it.
Given that everything else is taxed to the point the laffer curve goes Nope you are having a laugh.
I suspect that even this forthcoming Employer NI increase is a step 2 far and we will start to see a whole set of dodgy deals to mitigate it. Employee NI is hard to avoid, even with the new IR35 rules there are ways to reduce the employer NI side of things.
I think a 1-2% asset tax on certain classes of assets is on the cards. As I've said for years, the Tories would do well to get ahead of it and propose one with exemptions on primary residences and total shareholdings under £500k. Labour certainly wouldn't be as generous on shareholdings and may not exempt primary residences.
Labour aren't going to tax people's homes, certainly not those under a million quid or something.
A million quid is easy to hit in London and the SE. My parents home is a bog standard 4 bedroom semi in a nice suburb and a house on their road sold for more than a million. That's why I said the Tories should get ahead of it and exempt all primary residences, Labour will likely have some kind of limit and would be unlikely to include shareholdings above a low value threshold.
Yeah my house is worth well over a million. If Labour wanted to really exempt all but the properly wealthy they could go with £2mn or something, but then you're only going after a few people and it starts to look vindictive or politics of envy stuff. I'm guessing most people in £1mn homes are either nailed on Tories or nailed on Labour, and there aren't many in marginal seats, so maybe it doesn't matter. My point is, they're not going to tax the homes of 'normal' voters. The sensible thing would be a thorough reform of property taxation including the abolition of council tax and SDLT both of which are crappy taxes.
Rogue Poll. My personal sense is that the Tories are nudging ahead again, and Boris is recovering fast
My personal sense is that while Boris may have recovered (a bit) with wavering Tory MPs, he certainly hasn't with the great British public. And he won't either. If he survives a VONC there may be a sense of closure but it will be temporary. If he survives til a General Elections the Tories will get a walloping as the voters will just want the back of him. It's basically over.
(And I don't suppose Dom is likely to give up either. The pratfalls will keep coming.)
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
I have it on good authority that if Heathrow could pay to have its own officers at passport control, it would do so. But they have to be Border Force instead.
FPT, @MaxPB said there were only 1.5 million on UC.
The actual figure is 5.7 million. The roll out is roughly 60% complete, so the eventual figure could be around 9.5 million.
Of the 5.7 million, 1.7 million are searching for work. Another 1.3 million are expected to search for more work or prepare for it, for a total of 3 million.
There is a reasonably strong positive correlation between being on unemployment related benefits and labour vote share, last I checked. I might run that code on UC only and see what crops up.
So 1.7m people are affected by this policy then? I thought it was 1.5m at last count due to a big fall in claimants, but sure even at 1.7m people it's not a huge number directly and as I said, indirectly people tend to be in favour of fewer unemployed/freeloaders/scroungers (delete as appropriate). Whether or not it's a good policy is up for debate, I don't think it's going to hurt Rishi as HYFUD likes to claim, though. The most anti-scrounger people are working poor and lower-middle income people, what a lot of us would term red wall voters.
It is hardly scrounging to apply for jobs matching your skillset for 3 months before having to widen your search to still claim benefits after recent redundancy. Sunak now wants to slash that to just 1 month.
For all but the poorest and unskilled, for whom it will make no difference, this would be a worry if they ever lost their job and had few savings. Highly skilled and medium skilled workers would have to apply for unskilled, low pay jobs after just a month of claiming
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
I'm not going to click the link because the indy website is a hot mess of adverts and popups, so perhaps someone can bravely don a tin hat and delve in to tell me what's wrong with flying Quantas?
"Scheduled flights were available for the same itinerary, but it is understood the private flight was chosen for ‘security considerations’ amid fears that conversations could be overheard by other passengers."
Colour me wholly unconvinced. No idea about the economics of private flights versus public, but the given excuse sounds flimsy.
Rogue Poll. My personal sense is that the Tories are nudging ahead again, and Boris is recovering fast
My personal sense is that while Boris may have recovered (a bit) with wavering Tory MPs, he certainly hasn't with the great British public. And he won't either. If he survives a VONC there may be a sense of closure but it will be temporary. If he survives til a General Elections the Tories will get a walloping as the voters will just want the back of him. It's basically over.
(And I don't suppose Dom is likely to give up either. The pratfalls will keep coming.)
There was a report that Sue Gray has demanded Cummings hands over all the information he has and maybe that is why photos have been submitted
Lampard is now favourite to get the Everton job so I suspect the story is going to go
Lampard gets the job Everton are relegated (highly likely given the issues, the time left to fix things and Newcastle's spending) Rooney arrives in the Summer to return them to glory.
In a way I find HY's attitude rather comforting. If enough tories don't think they now have a problem that's all the better for the Opposition.
It was exactly the same in 1992-7. People thought that because John Major had pulled the cat out of the bag at the last minute with his stunning, and totally surprising, victory in 1992 that he would repeat the feat five years later.
Stay arrogant and myopic. Suits me.
They say Tories have but two states of mind: complacency, and panic.
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
I have it on good authority that if Heathrow could pay to have its own officers at passport control, it would do so. But they have to be Border Force instead.
It’s baffling. Same the last time I flew to the US. Rich country, one and a half hour queues, three quarters of the booths closed. And not to do with covid paperwork - that was all done by the airlines. And, as has been said, it’s bad for our reputation.
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
I'm not going to click the link because the indy website is a hot mess of adverts and popups, so perhaps someone can bravely don a tin hat and delve in to tell me what's wrong with flying Quantas?
"Scheduled flights were available for the same itinerary, but it is understood the private flight was chosen for ‘security considerations’ amid fears that conversations could be overheard by other passengers."
Colour me wholly unconvinced. No idea about the economics of private flights versus public, but the given excuse sounds flimsy.
Also - 50 people means 50 x the risk of a covid foulup (someone being negative but incubating). Which would be undiplomatic.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
In a way I find HY's attitude rather comforting. If enough tories don't think they now have a problem that's all the better for the Opposition.
It was exactly the same in 1992-7. People thought that because John Major had pulled the cat out of the bag at the last minute with his stunning, and totally surprising, victory in 1992 that he would repeat the feat five years later.
Stay arrogant and myopic. Suits me.
Yes. And was recently watching the election night coverage from 1997. That expectation was only extinguished with the exit poll for some
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
When the e-gates are open, but merely temperamental, I’ve had good luck asking the attendant if I can just try another e-gate lane rather than get dumped into the big queue. Both times they have said yes, and both times the new gate was fine.
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
I have it on good authority that if Heathrow could pay to have its own officers at passport control, it would do so. But they have to be Border Force instead.
Being 1 of the 3 Border Force staff at Durham Tees on a Friday night must have been 1 of the cushiest jobs available. It was literally letting in the same 100 people every week
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
She would have had a team with her including security which has been suggested could have been 50 or more
If she's flying 50 people to Australia that's a waste of public money in itself.
All diplomatic trips have staff and security and no different if labour were in power
It is a silly story
I don't agree. The restaurant thing was a silly story. Clearly if you are entertaining foreign dignitaries then you should be able to take them to a decent restaurant.
This insistence on flying around the world on the part of Johnson and co by private plane seems to be rooted in vanity. But I'm not sure it is a good look. In fact, it looks more like a misjudgement, given the salience of the environment as a political issue, and the fact that the same politicians who are flying around the world by private plane at great financial and environmental cost are also rolling out green taxes and a net zero agenda, impacting adversely on things like energy bills and the cost of motoring.
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
She would have had a team with her including security which has been suggested could have been 50 or more
If she's flying 50 people to Australia that's a waste of public money in itself.
All diplomatic trips have staff and security and no different if labour were in power
It is a silly story
I don't agree. The restaurant thing was a silly story. Clearly if you are entertaining foreign dignitaries then you should be able to take them to a decent restaurant.
This insistence on flying around the world on the part of Johnson and co by private plane seems to be rooted in vanity. But I'm not sure it is a good look. In fact, it looks more like a misjudgement, given the salience of the environment as a political issue, and the fact that the same politicians who are flying around the world by private plane at great financial and environmental cost are also rolling out green taxes and a net zero agenda, impacting adversely on things like energy bills and the cost of motoring.
In a way I find HY's attitude rather comforting. If enough tories don't think they now have a problem that's all the better for the Opposition.
It was exactly the same in 1992-7. People thought that because John Major had pulled the cat out of the bag at the last minute with his stunning, and totally surprising, victory in 1992 that he would repeat the feat five years later.
Stay arrogant and myopic. Suits me.
Yes. And was recently watching the election night coverage from 1997. That expectation was only extinguished with the exit poll for some
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentos and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
The Tories are odds on with all the bookies to get most seats at the next election.
Since there are only 2 parties who realistically can win "most seats", it is possible for both to be odds-on, say 10/11 (or 5/6 for greedy bookies) each.
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
The bloke's got a good two or three inches on me, to be fair.
I think the same is true in terms of his height as well.
Rogue Poll. My personal sense is that the Tories are nudging ahead again, and Boris is recovering fast
My personal sense is that while Boris may have recovered (a bit) with wavering Tory MPs, he certainly hasn't with the great British public. And he won't either. If he survives a VONC there may be a sense of closure but it will be temporary. If he survives til a General Elections the Tories will get a walloping as the voters will just want the back of him. It's basically over.
(And I don't suppose Dom is likely to give up either. The pratfalls will keep coming.)
There was a report that Sue Gray has demanded Cummings hands over all the information he has and maybe that is why photos have been submitted
Not wanting to quibble, but does she have the authority to do that? AFAIAA Cummings is a private citizen and she is neither a lawyer nor a warranted officer. Can Sue Gray demand my phone?
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
She would have had a team with her including security which has been suggested could have been 50 or more
If she's flying 50 people to Australia that's a waste of public money in itself.
All diplomatic trips have staff and security and no different if labour were in power
It is a silly story
Not to mention that it’s a 24 hour trip in each direction, so there would be an expectation of work being done in flight, requiring secure communication lines etc. It might be a good idea for the Foreign Secretary to receive several sensitive briefings per day as to the situation in Ukraine at the moment, for example.
Booking out biz class on a commercial jet wouldn’t be a million miles away from £500k anyway, and they’ll get some of the costs back from charging journalists and other non-government staff who were on the plane.
If it were Ms Truss and her assistant, with only the pilots for company and enjoying the G&T for two days, then the complainants might have a point. These delegations are always dozens of people.
Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls: 1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60 2.Major (Aug 94): -59 3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56 3= Foot (Aug 82): -56 5. Brown (Jul 08): -51 6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ I'm afraid I don't buy the argument that Conservative Party voters have given up on the party forever. The latest polls suggest some are drifting back, albeit tentatively. Think it is too early to be making these kinds of sweeping statements.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
In a way I find HY's attitude rather comforting. If enough tories don't think they now have a problem that's all the better for the Opposition.
It was exactly the same in 1992-7. People thought that because John Major had pulled the cat out of the bag at the last minute with his stunning, and totally surprising, victory in 1992 that he would repeat the feat five years later.
Stay arrogant and myopic. Suits me.
Yes. And was recently watching the election night coverage from 1997. That expectation was only extinguished with the exit poll for some
1997 was my best night in Politics ever.
I did enjoy the exit poll release in 2017 too
They were also my top 2 - 1997 first, 2017 a close second.
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
SA Police are widely maligned and probably with good reason but the two I dealt with were perfect gents. My SA friends to a man and woman said they were surprised they didn't at least put me in the cells until I offered a few hundred rand 'compensation', but no. They were faultlessly civil and proper.
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
In a way I find HY's attitude rather comforting. If enough tories don't think they now have a problem that's all the better for the Opposition.
It was exactly the same in 1992-7. People thought that because John Major had pulled the cat out of the bag at the last minute with his stunning, and totally surprising, victory in 1992 that he would repeat the feat five years later.
Stay arrogant and myopic. Suits me.
Yes. And was recently watching the election night coverage from 1997. That expectation was only extinguished with the exit poll for some
I remember meeting some girls in the university bar on the late afternoon of 1 May 1997, they were all dressed in red and had been out door knocking all day and for every day the week prior.
They were completely nervous and wouldn't even entertain my suggestion that they might walk it. They were downing halves of lager and shots of vodka to settle their nerves. Anyway, one of them invited me to a house party that night, which I attended.
At the party, nobody even wanted to believe the exit poll. It was only after enough seats had fallen that the dancing began.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
My favorite was the guy who wouldn't vote for Neil Kinnock because of the color of his hair. He had nothing against redheads, it's just that he thought it would be awkward when he had to travel to hot, sunny places. 'Redheads burn easily' he said, in all seriousness.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
Again, is there any evidence, from the UK, that the height of the candidate makes much difference to the outcome? I keep reading this but I’m yet to see any data supporting it.
In a way I find HY's attitude rather comforting. If enough tories don't think they now have a problem that's all the better for the Opposition.
It was exactly the same in 1992-7. People thought that because John Major had pulled the cat out of the bag at the last minute with his stunning, and totally surprising, victory in 1992 that he would repeat the feat five years later.
Stay arrogant and myopic. Suits me.
Yes. And was recently watching the election night coverage from 1997. That expectation was only extinguished with the exit poll for some
1997 was my best night in Politics ever.
I did enjoy the exit poll release in 2017 too
They were also my top 2 - 1997 first, 2017 a close second.
Me too things can only get better really resonated
Securuty, prosperity and erm and er erm and erm respect not so much
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
SA Police are widely maligned and probably with good reason but the two I dealt with were perfect gents. My SA friends to a man and woman said they were surprised they didn't at least put me in the cells until I offered a few hundred rand 'compensation', but no. They were faultlessly civil and proper.
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
With all due respect, you consider Cape Town to be “reasonably safe” despite it having the highest murder rate in Africa, the highest murder rate outside the Americas, and a top ten ranking for global homicides
Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls: 1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60 2.Major (Aug 94): -59 3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56 3= Foot (Aug 82): -56 5. Brown (Jul 08): -51 6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46
FPT, @MaxPB said there were only 1.5 million on UC.
The actual figure is 5.7 million. The roll out is roughly 60% complete, so the eventual figure could be around 9.5 million.
Of the 5.7 million, 1.7 million are searching for work. Another 1.3 million are expected to search for more work or prepare for it, for a total of 3 million.
There is a reasonably strong positive correlation between being on unemployment related benefits and labour vote share, last I checked. I might run that code on UC only and see what crops up.
So 1.7m people are affected by this policy then? I thought it was 1.5m at last count due to a big fall in claimants, but sure even at 1.7m people it's not a huge number directly and as I said, indirectly people tend to be in favour of fewer unemployed/freeloaders/scroungers (delete as appropriate). Whether or not it's a good policy is up for debate, I don't think it's going to hurt Rishi as HYFUD likes to claim, though. The most anti-scrounger people are working poor and lower-middle income people, what a lot of us would term red wall voters.
I don't disagree, though I think it will be more like 3 million. This has bedroom tax/zero-hours contract written all over it.
Fwiw, I loved my zero hours contract at uni. I flatly refused to attend a weekend shift before an exam, and was promptly given as many hours as I wanted after they finished.
They are great if there is huge demand for (your) labour, as there is now. If not...
That's also why furlough/ £20 uplift was such smart politics. It was the only time unemployment benefits would've hurt lots of Tory-minded people.
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
She would have had a team with her including security which has been suggested could have been 50 or more
If she's flying 50 people to Australia that's a waste of public money in itself.
All diplomatic trips have staff and security and no different if labour were in power
It is a silly story
Not to mention that it’s a 24 hour trip in each direction, so there would be an expectation of work being done in flight, requiring secure communication lines etc. It might be a good idea for the Foreign Secretary to receive several sensitive briefings per day as to the situation in Ukraine at the moment, for example.
Booking out biz class on a commercial jet wouldn’t be a million miles away from £500k anyway, and they’ll get some of the costs back from charging journalists and other non-government staff who were on the plane.
If it were Ms Truss and her assistant, with only the pilots for company and enjoying the G&T for two days, then the complainants might have a point. These delegations are always dozens of people.
Possibly. It is right that questions are asked, the Independent are on to something here.
Would the same considerations have applied for Johnsons return trip to London from COP26?
Arguing the toss over polling is PB at its most tedious. One poll is bad for Boris, one is marginally better for him. So what? The polls are irrelevant because he’s going nowhere come rain or shine. The PCP are hopeless.
Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls: 1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60 2.Major (Aug 94): -59 3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56 3= Foot (Aug 82): -56 5. Brown (Jul 08): -51 6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46
Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls: 1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60 2.Major (Aug 94): -59 3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56 3= Foot (Aug 82): -56 5. Brown (Jul 08): -51 6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
SA Police are widely maligned and probably with good reason but the two I dealt with were perfect gents. My SA friends to a man and woman said they were surprised they didn't at least put me in the cells until I offered a few hundred rand 'compensation', but no. They were faultlessly civil and proper.
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
With all due respect, you consider Cape Town to be “reasonably safe” despite it having the highest murder rate in Africa, the highest murder rate outside the Americas, and a top ten ranking for global homicides
That will be because of the Cape Flats. When I lived in SA (97), Cape Town around the City Centre was reasonably safe, in SA terms, and certainly well policed. However, the Cape Flats were considered far more dangerous than Soweto and Alexandra in Jo'Burg (all relative though).
Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls: 1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60 2.Major (Aug 94): -59 3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56 3= Foot (Aug 82): -56 5. Brown (Jul 08): -51 6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
She would have had a team with her including security which has been suggested could have been 50 or more
If she's flying 50 people to Australia that's a waste of public money in itself.
All diplomatic trips have staff and security and no different if labour were in power
It is a silly story
Not to mention that it’s a 24 hour trip in each direction, so there would be an expectation of work being done in flight, requiring secure communication lines etc. It might be a good idea for the Foreign Secretary to receive several sensitive briefings per day as to the situation in Ukraine at the moment, for example.
Booking out biz class on a commercial jet wouldn’t be a million miles away from £500k anyway, and they’ll get some of the costs back from charging journalists and other non-government staff who were on the plane.
If it were Ms Truss and her assistant, with only the pilots for company and enjoying the G&T for two days, then the complainants might have a point. These delegations are always dozens of people.
Possibly. It is right that questions are asked, the Independent are on to something here.
Would the same considerations have applied for Johnsons return trip to London from COP26?
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
SA Police are widely maligned and probably with good reason but the two I dealt with were perfect gents. My SA friends to a man and woman said they were surprised they didn't at least put me in the cells until I offered a few hundred rand 'compensation', but no. They were faultlessly civil and proper.
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
With all due respect, you consider Cape Town to be “reasonably safe” despite it having the highest murder rate in Africa, the highest murder rate outside the Americas, and a top ten ranking for global homicides
A 5% lead isn't enough for Labour at this stage. Not good for Starmer at all.
Without being accused of going all HYFUD (and, apologies HYFUD, you get a lot of abuse when you shouldn't), Labour should be having a double-digit lead at this point. What is probably even worse is they are struggling to break past 40%
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
Again, is there any evidence, from the UK, that the height of the candidate makes much difference to the outcome? I keep reading this but I’m yet to see any data supporting it.
It’s not the UK but it took me 25 seconds to find this. I doubt we are any different
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
It's a betting site. I come here because people don't let their personal values get in the way of their bank balance.
Recognition of Drakeford's popularity is the best example of this.
A 5% lead isn't enough for Labour at this stage. Not good for Starmer at all.
Without being accused of going all HYFUD (and, apologies HYFUD, you get a lot of abuse when you shouldn't), Labour should be having a double-digit lead at this point. What is probably even worse is they are struggling to break past 40%
Remember that the Lib Dems are now sat at 10-11% rather than the 5-6% they used to get.
A 5% lead isn't enough for Labour at this stage. Not good for Starmer at all.
Without being accused of going all HYFUD (and, apologies HYFUD, you get a lot of abuse when you shouldn't), Labour should be having a double-digit lead at this point. What is probably even worse is they are struggling to break past 40%
They did a week to two weeks ago, but the public's attention seems to be shifting. Unless Dom has something dramatic up his sleeve, Johnson could survive at least until May, if not a lot longer.
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
SA Police are widely maligned and probably with good reason but the two I dealt with were perfect gents. My SA friends to a man and woman said they were surprised they didn't at least put me in the cells until I offered a few hundred rand 'compensation', but no. They were faultlessly civil and proper.
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
With all due respect, you consider Cape Town to be “reasonably safe” despite it having the highest murder rate in Africa, the highest murder rate outside the Americas, and a top ten ranking for global homicides
That will be because of the Cape Flats. When I lived in SA (97), Cape Town around the City Centre was reasonably safe, in SA terms, and certainly well policed. However, the Cape Flats were considered far more dangerous than Soweto and Alexandra in Jo'Burg (all relative though).
OMG the Cape Flats, Horrific. Like a concentration camp
However, and sadly, the latest goss I hear from SA-born or linked friends is that even central Cape Town is not great, not any more
What is amazing is that the worst city in SA for murders is ONLY the tenth worst in the world. The state of the violence in Latin America, especially Mexico, is just mind blowing; This is a society in collapse
Simon Calder EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on Qantas . Instead, Liz Truss travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
She would have had a team with her including security which has been suggested could have been 50 or more
If she's flying 50 people to Australia that's a waste of public money in itself.
All diplomatic trips have staff and security and no different if labour were in power
It is a silly story
Not to mention that it’s a 24 hour trip in each direction, so there would be an expectation of work being done in flight, requiring secure communication lines etc. It might be a good idea for the Foreign Secretary to receive several sensitive briefings per day as to the situation in Ukraine at the moment, for example.
Booking out biz class on a commercial jet wouldn’t be a million miles away from £500k anyway, and they’ll get some of the costs back from charging journalists and other non-government staff who were on the plane.
If it were Ms Truss and her assistant, with only the pilots for company and enjoying the G&T for two days, then the complainants might have a point. These delegations are always dozens of people.
Possibly. It is right that questions are asked, the Independent are on to something here.
Would the same considerations have applied for Johnsons return trip to London from COP26?
There’s usually half a story to these things, but the arrangements are not usually made by the ministers directly, rather the civil service from the lead department and the security services. The minister insisting on an additional cost, for unspecified reasons of their own, might be worthy of investigation.
One additional issue with Australia specifically might have been the Covid protocols - would the whole plane be potentially isolated if a random pax on a commercial flight tested positive on arrival? With a private flight, everyone’s movement can be accounted for in the days before the trip.
But I will laugh along with everyone else at all the planes in Glasgow for COP26. Hypocrisy at its finest, from everyone who was there. As far as I know, no two leaders even tried to fly on the same plane, no-one except Johnson arrived by train, and as you say he left by plane to London.
I would say mainstream Lib Dem opinion is equidistant from the current manifestation of the Tories, and Corbynism. Even in the last election though, the overriding issue of Brexit pushed more to vote tactically for Labour than for the Tories.
With Starmer heading Labour they are now clearly closer to the Lib Dems than the government is. To bring them back into equidistance you'd need something like a Rory Stewart-led Tory party with a positive attitude to Europe and the JRMs, Patels, Raabs and the rest of that shower in the backbench wilderness.
Yes but that risks Farage coming back to lead RefUK and the Tories being replaced by RefUK as the main opposition if Stewart came back on a BINO Brexit ticket
I thought you said Brexit is done.
Story keeps changing.
It’s a moveable feast.
Strangely the feasting always seems to be going on somewhere else.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
Again, is there any evidence, from the UK, that the height of the candidate makes much difference to the outcome? I keep reading this but I’m yet to see any data supporting it.
It’s not the UK but it took me 25 seconds to find this. I doubt we are any different
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
SA Police are widely maligned and probably with good reason but the two I dealt with were perfect gents. My SA friends to a man and woman said they were surprised they didn't at least put me in the cells until I offered a few hundred rand 'compensation', but no. They were faultlessly civil and proper.
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
With all due respect, you consider Cape Town to be “reasonably safe” despite it having the highest murder rate in Africa, the highest murder rate outside the Americas, and a top ten ranking for global homicides
That will be because of the Cape Flats. When I lived in SA (97), Cape Town around the City Centre was reasonably safe, in SA terms, and certainly well policed. However, the Cape Flats were considered far more dangerous than Soweto and Alexandra in Jo'Burg (all relative though).
OMG the Cape Flats, Horrific. Like a concentration camp
However, and sadly, the latest goss I hear from SA-born or linked friends is that even central Cape Town is not great, not any more
What is amazing is that the worst city in SA for murders is ONLY the tenth worst in the world. The state of the violence in Latin America, especially Mexico, is just mind blowing; This is a society in collapse
Mexico City is dodgy as f*ck. I was there in the late 90s and it was bad. I hear it is now x10 worse.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
Again, is there any evidence, from the UK, that the height of the candidate makes much difference to the outcome? I keep reading this but I’m yet to see any data supporting it.
It’s not the UK but it took me 25 seconds to find this. I doubt we are any different
A 5% lead isn't enough for Labour at this stage. Not good for Starmer at all.
Without being accused of going all HYFUD (and, apologies HYFUD, you get a lot of abuse when you shouldn't), Labour should be having a double-digit lead at this point. What is probably even worse is they are struggling to break past 40%
They did a week to two weeks ago, but the public's attention seems to be shifting. Unless Dom has something dramatic up his sleeve, Johnson could survive at least until May, if not a lot longer.
I've posted before that I find it hard to get excited too much about what he's done (cue for abuse) but it does feel as though the story is getting a bit lost in the weeds now and complicated - "so he had a party but what did the Policemen see and, wait, where do the dogs fit in?". That is usually when people lose interest.
The thread header is wrong. Thatcher did have lower ratings than Boris with Mori in 1990, as did Major in 1994 and as did May as mentioned in 2019 and Blair and Brown had similar in 2007 and in 2009. 'However, it is not as bad as John Major’s low point of 76/17 in August 1994, or Margaret Thatcher’s of 76/20 in March 1990.
As for being seen as an election winner. Labour's lead is still under 10% with Mori today and lower with other pollsters. All alternative Tory leaders to Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris does bar Sunak. Sunak does fractionally better but how long that lasts if he continues to make unpopular decisions like he did over UC today which will hit skilled workers facing redundancy remains to be seen
Thatcher got deposed and Major got the Tories wiped out. I'm not sure your examples are very helpful.
Thatcher only got deposed as polls showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock Labour while the Tories under her trailed.
No alternative Tory leader led Blair's Labour pre 1997 and no alternative leader leads Starmer Labour in hypothetical polls now either, even Sunak
Polls show Johnson is less popular that the Conservative Party, and Sunak is more popular than the Conservative Party. It's reasonable to assume that the Conservatives would get a bit of a poll boost if they replaced Johnson with Sunak, if only temporarily.
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
You just want him gone, I suspect
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
Is it really necessary to bring up Sunak's height yet again? There are many things you could criticise him for, but his height isn't one of them.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
It’s not a fucking criticism. It’s just a fact, Voters often vote for the most superficial of reasons. They don’t like bald men, and they don’t like short men. They’re not that keen on shouty women
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
Again, is there any evidence, from the UK, that the height of the candidate makes much difference to the outcome? I keep reading this but I’m yet to see any data supporting it.
It’s not the UK but it took me 25 seconds to find this. I doubt we are any different
Off-topic but one that MaxPB and others will understand
Mike Butcher @mikebutcher Big tech entrepreneur messages me: "Stuck at the UK border (non-UK, EU, US) in LHR for 4+ hrs. Last time it was 2.5+. Kids crying all around. Officers drift in & out. Barely a quarter booths occupied. I was thinking of opening an office in London, but now I doubt I will." #Brexit
I've known Mike for 25 years so this is a true story it ain't point scoring and shows how the little things matter.
This shit happened before Brexit, the issue is always the same - e-gates have stopped working and right now the incessant checks on COVID stuff at the border. The US border in SF is pretty awful too right now, I know some people who just went and were stuck for hours.
Anyone who is basing investment decisions on COVID travel probably makes pretty poor decisions overall, though that doesn't excuse the border agents not being staffed properly or actually working.
London Heathrow IME is normally one of the more efficient airport experiences. They've figured out that in security you should have multiple stations for people taking off shoes for each x-ray scanner, rather than making it go one-by-one. Why other countries can't do this, I do not know.
Heathrow is pretty efficient to get airside, but the border is variable. When the e-gates are working it's not an issue for basically anyone coming from the e-gates approved countries. When they aren't it can take literally hours to get through. I've waited 6 hours before in the UK queue and when we got to the desk the border person said my wife would have to go and queue up separately because she's a Swiss citizen and needs to go into the non-UK queue. I bitched at him and eventually he scanned her passport and let us through, but said that from then we should queue separately. Idiot.
You think security at Heathrow is good?
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentoes and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
Presumably because you didn't have the correct gun to fire it!
SA Police are widely maligned and probably with good reason but the two I dealt with were perfect gents. My SA friends to a man and woman said they were surprised they didn't at least put me in the cells until I offered a few hundred rand 'compensation', but no. They were faultlessly civil and proper.
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
With all due respect, you consider Cape Town to be “reasonably safe” despite it having the highest murder rate in Africa, the highest murder rate outside the Americas, and a top ten ranking for global homicides
My comments were based on personal experience rather than statistics, and my own subjective feelings of how safe it felt generally. I was mostly in and around Pietermaritzburg, and spent some time in Durban and the resorts north of Durban beach. Naturally I avoided the more obvious hotspots but even so I've been in much more threatening places in the UK.....Cold Blow Lane and The Shed End for starters.
Comments
https://twitter.com/cleanupgambling/status/1486595809038770176
Who can blame him. i have been there
*shudder*
(And I don't suppose Dom is likely to give up either. The pratfalls will keep coming.)
What did I say about ten minutes ago?
I told you: I am plugged into the British national psyche. It is uncanny
It might not solve the other problem that they have - what is their story? Why should people vote for them again after so many years in government? What are they for?
Of course Conservatives should get rid of Johnson anyway.
For all but the poorest and unskilled, for whom it will make no difference, this would be a worry if they ever lost their job and had few savings. Highly skilled and medium skilled workers would have to apply for unskilled, low pay jobs after just a month of claiming
No idea about the economics of private flights versus public, but the given excuse sounds flimsy.
Many of them are panicking.
Some of them are complacent.
Johnson beating Omicron this week has probably helped too.
https://cleanupgambling.com/news/cracked-labs
Getting rid of Boris means getting rid of a proven election winner and a brilliant campaigner. Yes, his polling is in the Khazi but if any British politician can defeat the rules of politics, it is him
This is not my personal opinion - I think morally he should quit. I am just looking at it objectively
What if this is just some mad late Covid polling squall? Who is to say? It may pass in two weeks, or it may be a tectonic shift. We haven’t had a plague for.a century so normal rules don’t apply
Meanwhile the billionaire Borrower Sunak is a total unknown. He might be an absolutely terrible campaigner, who knows, he might go out canvassing and get lost between some paving stones, as he is so small
I can see why Tory MPs are extremely hesitant. Meanwhile, Labour aren’t that much of an alternative, A boring leader, no ideas
And was recently watching the election night coverage from 1997.
That expectation was only extinguished with the exit poll for some
Fieldwork 4th to 21st January? Is that normal
9% would seem right over that time period
We could do with another poll where fieldwork was this last week
This insistence on flying around the world on the part of Johnson and co by private plane seems to be rooted in vanity. But I'm not sure it is a good look. In fact, it looks more like a misjudgement, given the salience of the environment as a political issue, and the fact that the same politicians who are flying around the world by private plane at great financial and environmental cost are also rolling out green taxes and a net zero agenda, impacting adversely on things like energy bills and the cost of motoring.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1486697056773283842?t=9WvfOvQ9nNd-LWwpF7DLWA&s=19
I did enjoy the exit poll release in 2017 too
Well done, Colonel Hindsight.
It really is moronic – I'm on the short side of six foot but the tallness or shortness of politicians is entirely irrelevant to my vote.
I recently travelled to Johannesburg from London via Zurich. I went through all the normal security checks without problem.
At Johannesburg I attempted to board a local plane down to Pietermaritzburg but the girl on security was troubled by my hand luggage, a small attache case. She emptied it, shook it out, and listened to my words of reassurance but she was convinced 'there's something in there'. She then took a penknife to one of the penholder pockets and withdrew a four inch long bullet. I recognised it immediately. It came from my Dad's war momentos and I'd put it in the case a few months previous intending to have it checked out by a local gunsmith, but I'd forgotten all about it and it wasn't visible so I overlooked it when I decided to use the case on the trip.
Happily the SA police accepted my story but it was an awkward moment, and left me pondering how this live round had escaped scrutiny at Heathrow/Zurich/Joburg.
I think the round was for a WW2 machine gun but I'll never find out now because I left it with the cops in Joburg.
I distinctly remember being by the Iguazu Falls in Argentina when I realised, correctly, that Boris was heading for an 80 seat majority
It was about an hour after the release of the exit poll, when I got back to my hotel and checked
I think the same is true in terms of his height as well.
Can Sue Gray demand my phone?
Booking out biz class on a commercial jet wouldn’t be a million miles away from £500k anyway, and they’ll get some of the costs back from charging journalists and other non-government staff who were on the plane.
If it were Ms Truss and her assistant, with only the pilots for company and enjoying the G&T for two days, then the complainants might have a point. These delegations are always dozens of people.
Survation one seems to be more like you would expect given SKS peaked 8 days ago!
1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60
2.Major (Aug 94): -59
3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56
3= Foot (Aug 82): -56
5. Brown (Jul 08): -51
6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1486713816356249612
Matt Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
I'm afraid I don't buy the argument that Conservative Party voters have given up on the party forever. The latest polls suggest some are drifting back, albeit tentatively. Think it is too early to be making these kinds of sweeping statements.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1486664408046702596
Don’t blame me, blame the intrinsic failings of democracy
I've had worse experiences with the fuzz over here.
They were completely nervous and wouldn't even entertain my suggestion that they might walk it. They were downing halves of lager and shots of vodka to settle their nerves. Anyway, one of them invited me to a house party that night, which I attended.
At the party, nobody even wanted to believe the exit poll. It was only after enough seats had fallen that the dancing began.
Well, I suppose it's true, but....
Securuty, prosperity and erm and er erm and erm respect not so much
https://twitter.com/olafdoesstuff/status/1478344439143800832
https://www.worldatlas.com/cities/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world.html
https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1486699574211358723/photo/1
Fwiw, I loved my zero hours contract at uni. I flatly refused to attend a weekend shift before an exam, and was promptly given as many hours as I wanted after they finished.
They are great if there is huge demand for (your) labour, as there is now. If not...
That's also why furlough/ £20 uplift was such smart politics. It was the only time unemployment benefits would've hurt lots of Tory-minded people.
Would the same considerations have applied for Johnsons return trip to London from COP26?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/03/johnson-takes-private-jet-from-cop26-to-london-to-attend-dinner
They chose that month because that's when the Hutton report was published.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/19/in-politics-height-matters
https://digitalcommons.spu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1051&context=honorsprojects
Poland:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229805429_Politicians'_estimated_height_as_an_indicator_of_their_popularity
But No 10 refuses to confirm whether PM ever discussed the issue with Trudy Harrison at the time 🤔
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1486674148709523460
https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1486434102127607810
Recognition of Drakeford's popularity is the best example of this.
Not all anti-Tory traffic is to Labour.
Do we know the previous poll dates that are referred to for change purposes
I see 37% say Labour should get a new leader before the next General Election (was 34% last July), including 28% of Labour voters.
However, and sadly, the latest goss I hear from SA-born or linked friends is that even central Cape Town is not great, not any more
What is amazing is that the worst city in SA for murders is ONLY the tenth worst in the world. The state of the violence in Latin America, especially Mexico, is just mind blowing; This is a society in collapse
One additional issue with Australia specifically might have been the Covid protocols - would the whole plane be potentially isolated if a random pax on a commercial flight tested positive on arrival? With a private flight, everyone’s movement can be accounted for in the days before the trip.
But I will laugh along with everyone else at all the planes in Glasgow for COP26. Hypocrisy at its finest, from everyone who was there. As far as I know, no two leaders even tried to fly on the same plane, no-one except Johnson arrived by train, and as you say he left by plane to London.
Strangely the feasting always seems to be going on somewhere else.
What is their rationale? That the Brits are a different species of hominid?
Height matters. Tall people succeed.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/tall-people-more-likely-to-be-successful-in-life-study-find-a6919431.html
They succeed particularly in politics, where image is so important
Rishi would change the narrative and I believe would be a very good PM and is my choice and has been for months
Boris is an extraordinary politician, even unique, and his talent is winning elections, and indeed that is the only reason he is still in office
I just think we all need to be careful not to underestimate Boris
And a like from @HYUFD is assured
My comments were based on personal experience rather than statistics, and my own subjective feelings of how safe it felt generally. I was mostly in and around Pietermaritzburg, and spent some time in Durban and the resorts north of Durban beach. Naturally I avoided the more obvious hotspots but even so I've been in much more threatening places in the UK.....Cold Blow Lane and The Shed End for starters.