Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look
He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions
Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed
In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice
So. You're calling today a bad day for Starmer?
No I did not say that
It is just I do not rate him, and do you disagree with the points I have made
Starmer is mediocre, but Boris is self-destructing
Yes but the longer Johnson stays in place the more he makes Starmer look impressive in comparison and the more difficult it will be for the new Tory leader to put Starmer back in the shade.
Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB
The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?
Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too
He may even get a safer seat.
When Shaun Woodward defected from the tories he was rewarded with a plum safe labour seat of St Helens South.
I think David Davis has been pissed with Boris since he (Davis) resigned from Theresa's government and Boris resigned hours later and stole all the limelight
Plus he's a regular member of the 'awkward squad' of rebels on things like dropping international aid to 0.5 and much much more. Almost every rebellion has had his name in it, so I'm not remotely surprised he's put the letter in and wouldn't read too much into it.
He has an interesting history. Famously threw away the Conservative leadership by making a terrible speech, resigned from Cameron Shadow Cabinet to force a by-election (can't remember what on), resigned as Brexit minister from May's cabinet. Also has cross-party friendships, notably with Alastair Campbell and Alex Salmond. Very much his own man. I think in calling for Boris to go he just felt he was acting in national interest and doesn't much care about personal repercussions.
There is a very good chance this is his last parliament. He'll be 75 in May 2024 and he probably gives no flucks anymore. He can say what he wants and get away with it.
Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB
The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?
Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too
Shaun Woodward and his butler were parachuted into St Helens South without much bother as I recall. But perhaps Blair and Campbell were good at applying the thumbscrews.
Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?
And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
I dont recall using the D word
Source
Although i do not believe it is good acceptable or consistent with a DS Party
I'd concur that SKS didn't land a killer blow on Boris today, his part of PMQs won't have driven the Tory party VONC over the line, but the mood on here after DD & D is setting a massively low bar for success for Boris, sort of an "I didn't even have to use my AK, yes it was a good day" level.
The whole situation is win / win for Labour - Boris stays on, damage the whole Tory brand, Boris goes, longer to go at the new man, more of the pain will stick to them, honeymoon over sooner, longer to make it to the next GE.
Does this 'ally' really expect people not to make the connection with the record of loyalty to Cameron and May of another prominent figure?
When was Boris disloyal to Cameron?
If you mean Brexit that was deemed by Cameron a matter of conscience. If "loyalty" was supposed to be expressed even on a conscience vote then presumably there were Brexiteers in 2016 putting misplaced loyalty to Cameron ahead of doing the right thing by the country?
Boris "two letters" Johnson.
1. Dear Boris, If I stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
2. Dear Boris, If I don't stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
Yet she's completely right. See @kinabalu 's sneering remark below
I had in mind a recent comment on here about Neville and his support for Labour, along the lines of Lab shouldn't be trying to ingratiate themselves with blue tick morons who shoot their mouths off on twitter. Well, the Tories have them in cabinet.
Of course masks of any description would be no longer welcome on the Tory side. UJ's on pretty much everything are of course naff as fuck.
I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.
The rest of him can do one.
Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.
The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.
One of the worst of his hobby horses.
I think I would prescribe you a compulsory E-bike
It's going to become more of an emphasis, not less.
I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.
The rest of him can do one.
Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.
The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.
One of the worst of his hobby horses.
Emergency and key workers also cycle to work
Unspoofable. When they're driving ambulances and care cars, not so much.....
Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?
And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
I dont recall using the D word
Source
Although i do not believe it is good acceptable or consistent with a DS Party
Well from the Corbynista, Boris loving left wing perspective you are not selling it as anything like a victory, if you don't mind me saying so
I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.
The rest of him can do one.
Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.
The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.
One of the worst of his hobby horses.
I think I would prescribe you a compulsory E-bike
It's going to become more of an emphasis, not less.
I don't drive, and am a keen cyclist.
Like most cyclists I have no problem sharing the road. The problem is the extremists who think otherwise.
Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB
The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?
Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too
Potential boundary changes complicate the matter. But the answer depends on what promises he extracted from Labour before agreeing to jump - and, of course, whether Labour is minded to keep them. Inserting a small caveat into the promise, which its recipient doesn’t take seriously at the time, can provide a way out, if the party is so minded.
A defector has huge leverage before they jump, and next to none afterwards. The only incentive for Labour to be honourable is so as not to dissuade those who might follow.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?
And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
I dont recall using the D word
Source
Although i do not believe it is good acceptable or consistent with a DS Party
Which in context presumably stands for "Disasterously Socialist".
I thought he was a great London Mayor. Less keen on his PM abilities.
The truth is that he was a figurehead in London, while other people made sure the work of his mayoralty was done. Insofar as he impacted on anything, he wasted large amounts of time and money on pursuing his various lunatic schemes.
He’d probably have made a reasonable President in a political system where the president is a figurehead and doesn’t have much real responsibility or work to do.
Sadly for him, our parliamentary system doesn’t work like that, and places demands on the leader that his abilities and character are simply unable to fulfil.
Plus of course. He put in competent people to do the job required in London. As PM he appointed solely on the basis of ideological purity...
No, there was also a clear effort to appoint those who who were less than competent.
I think that's right. The one eyed king surrounded himself with the blind. Or who at least would promise not to look.
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
But that shift in opinion is in considerable part because Mr J made such a hideous mess of the restrictions' legitimacy qua restrictions. Neither that nor his panic are affected by the objective nature of the virus. On which fingers crossed that it is the right decision for the wrong reasons.
Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB
The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?
Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too
Shaun Woodward and his butler were parachuted into St Helens South without much bother as I recall. But perhaps Blair and Campbell were good at applying the thumbscrews.
Shaun Woodward
An amazing survivor
I once heard gossip about his household that would make your eyes water. If half of it ever came out...
Of course - moderators please note! - it might very well NOT be true, and I am certainly not alleging anything. No sir. Not me. Nope.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
Name me the last Labour MP to defect TO the Tories.
The only one I know is Reg Prentice in the 1970s.
Although he was first deselected by his CLP in 1975, then defected from the Labour Party to the Tories after a couple of years, and was elected elsewhere as a Tory in 1979.
Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?
And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
Doesn't BJO think everything is a disaster for Labour at the moment? It certainly isn't the consensus view, nor even a very popular one.
Doesn’t really matter. As with any defector, his destiny for the rest of his term is to be ultra-loyal, doing exactly as he is told, and soaking up any shit passed his way. If he gets re-elected and shows any promise, he might be rewarded with a small step on the ladder thereafter.
Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?
And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
I dont recall using the D word
Source
Although i do not believe it is good acceptable or consistent with a DS Party
Well from the Corbynista, Boris loving left wing perspective you are not selling it as anything like a victory, if you don't mind me saying so
I dont think it is a victory I thiught RobD had asked has anyone called it a "DISASTER" for Lab.
You said myself and a couple of others had
I dont believe any PBer used that phrase
I was probably the most negative but never used that phrase.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
Even Mrs Truss has now abandoned her republicanism as well as her Remain stance of 2016
Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB
The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?
Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too
Potential boundary changes complicate the matter. But the answer depends on what promises he extracted from Labour before agreeing to jump - and, of course, whether Labour is minded to keep them. Inserting a small caveat into the promise, which its recipient doesn’t take seriously at the time, can provide a way out, if the party is so minded.
A defector has huge leverage before they jump, and next to none afterwards. The only incentive for Labour to be honourable is so as not to dissuade those who might follow.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
To deliver these letters to Sir Graham Brady I'm pretending to withdraw my letter.
Tory MPs play games on this all the time because it creates entertaining mayhem,
The Whips Office are stalking the corridors leading to Brady’s office so any “shy” letter senders are getting known opponents to carry them in for them….
The worst PM of my lifetime. Totally unsuited for this crisis. Actually unsuited for any office. A chaotic, appalling, lying, opportunistic, thoroughly nasty piece of work who threw Paterson under the bus and habitually shafts people.
If he's the sort of person you like, Sean, then you're welcome to him. The rest of us will move on and look back on this as the most disastrous premiership of our lives.
Not disastrous at all. He did break the Brexit logjam, and he did make some pretty good calls on Covid. And the focus on levelling-up was astute. He will go down as a consequential PM who committed hari-kiri in a most bizarre way. A brief blazing meteor of a premiership.
And, Leon is right, we will miss such an entertainer in high office.
I think Boris was a fit for the times.
Brexit needed someone not tied down by detail. That's why May failed. Yes, detail matters, but the principle mattered more. Some of the problems we've been left with were utterly predictable, but many of the problems that were predicted haven't happened. Trying to fix them all in advance would have been a waste of time.
Covid needed similar. We'd never have got to the current situation otherwise. Yes, there were mistakes in timing, but how quickly we forget that lockdowns were and are an unprecedented restriction of liberties. I'm glad we had someone in charge who really didn't like them and didn't obsess about numbers, even whilst we all sat here obsessing about numbers.
The aftermath of both needs someone different. And sooner rather than later.
I don't agree about what Brexit needed, but then I suppose I wouldn't would I. Assuming the goal was to deliver a successful Brexit deal, what it needed was someone with a proper eye for detail, but far better able to sell the necessary compromises than May was. Indeed in hindsight all it needed was May, but with the 2015 Cameron majority rather than the 2017 hung parliament.
The fact there's been such a lack of attention to or interest in the detail is one of a number of reasons why Brexit has ended up the ill-tempered mess that it is, and why nobody is now able to articulate any tangible benefits apart from the simple fact of regaining sovereignty (which is enough for some, but not a quorum of public opinion). The other reason is that, Iraq war style, there just wasn't a clear vision or plan for what came after. Just topple Saddam/Brussels and the rest will follow.
Trying to dot every i was impossible. We could have spent 10 years trying to come up with the perfect deal and not got anywhere because there really wasn't one, particularly as neither side was negotiating in good faith. A successful deal can only be reached once both sides have to deal with reality and we were never going to get that prior to it actually happening. It was never going to be done in a single step.
Sometimes you just have to say 'sod it' and plough on anyway.
That's pretty much Boris's modus operandi, and as we are seeing, that has its upsides, and it has its downsides.
I think we're past the upsides now, which is why he has to go. It needs someone new to deal with the aftermath (much like Iraq did).
Doesn’t really matter. As with any defector, his destiny for the rest of his term is to be ultra-loyal, doing exactly as he is told, and soaking up any shit passed his way. If he gets re-elected and shows any promise, he might be rewarded with a small step on the ladder thereafter.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
The Queen was born and brought up in the UK. As were both her parents. As were all four of her grandparents. How many generations do you have to go back to be free of immigrants do you have to be in the SNP view of the world?
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
Our Germans aristocrats have of course been irredeemably bourgeoisifed so maybe they don't count?
Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?
And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
I dont recall using the D word
Source
Although i do not believe it is good acceptable or consistent with a DS Party
Well from the Corbynista, Boris loving left wing perspective you are not selling it as anything like a victory, if you don't mind me saying so
I dont think it is a victory I thought RobD had asked has anyone called it a "DISASTER" for Lab.
You said myself and a couple of others had
I dont believe any PBer used that phrase
I was probably the most negative but never used that phrase.
I was far too casual in my use of language. I am Boris Johnson and I claim my £5.
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
Today is one of those days where the weird inconsistencies seem to stand out
Boris doesn't have anything to say about anything anymore. Clearly to his detriment he has been caught and cannot justify himself
Boris would be taken to pieces if questioned under oath. He has no answers, because any answer he could now give will drop him in it because of his previous statements. He has lied, everybody knows it, he has no way out other than to say nothing about the parties and blather away with the tractor stats.
I find it inconceivable that Boris will be cleared by the inquiry, such a conclusion would stretch crediblity beyond any normal breaking point. If Boris is cleared I will simply assume that the inquiry was nobbled from the start.
He must think that he is going to be cleared to some extent. If the result of the enquiry was that he knew that it was a party and that he gave the go ahead for it then he will have to resign. He clearly does not think that this will happen
That's not quite the right way of looking at it, though.
It's not a question of whether it was a party, or whether Boris Johnson - like some proverbial High Court judge of old - wasn't really sure what a party was, even when he was at one.
The question is whether it was essential for work purposes. Conceivably it could be argued that it was. Strangely, I don't think I've ever heard that argued, though.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
Captain Darling: "Look, I'm as British as Queen Victoria!!"
Blackadder: "So your father's German, you're half German and you married a German!?
Name me the last Labour MP to defect TO the Tories.
The only one I know is Reg Prentice in the 1970s.
Although he was first deselected by his CLP in 1975, then defected from the Labour Party to the Tories after a couple of years, and was elected elsewhere as a Tory in 1979.
My MP is a Lab Councillor who went Tory.
And there are some interesting defections around - one of Lutfur Rahman's Tower Hamlets sidekicks is now a prominent Lib Dem iirc, for example.
None of this really matters now. The Conservative Party has shown itself to be as divided, if not more divided, than it was under May. Whether or not they do anything about it is up to them not the Labour Party. People have made their minds up about Johnson. You don’t come back from that sort of rating.
To deliver these letters to Sir Graham Brady I'm pretending to withdraw my letter.
Tory MPs play games on this all the time because it creates entertaining mayhem,
The Whips Office are stalking the corridors leading to Brady’s office so any “shy” letter senders are getting known opponents to carry them in for them….
Do they have to be physical letters? Won’t an email suffice?
Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?
And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
Doesn't BJO think everything is a disaster for Labour at the moment? It certainly isn't the consensus view, nor even a very popular one.
I am not unsympathetic to BJO's view that SKS and Labour are really quite rubbish, it is just when compared to the Conservatives 1992 to 2005 tribute act, SKS Labour are head and shoulders better.
Does this 'ally' really expect people not to make the connection with the record of loyalty to Cameron and May of another prominent figure?
When was Boris disloyal to Cameron?
If you mean Brexit that was deemed by Cameron a matter of conscience. If "loyalty" was supposed to be expressed even on a conscience vote then presumably there were Brexiteers in 2016 putting misplaced loyalty to Cameron ahead of doing the right thing by the country?
Boris "two letters" Johnson.
1. Dear Boris, If I stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
2. Dear Boris, If I don't stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
Hmm, decisions, decisions?
How was either stabbing Dave in the back, on a conscience vote?
And if that is the attitude then how many Tory MPs put loyalty to Dave ahead of their own better judgement on a referendum which was called a matter of conscience?
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
To deliver these letters to Sir Graham Brady I'm pretending to withdraw my letter.
Tory MPs play games on this all the time because it creates entertaining mayhem,
The Whips Office are stalking the corridors leading to Brady’s office so any “shy” letter senders are getting known opponents to carry them in for them….
Do they have to be physical letters? Won’t an email suffice?
I read this morning that you can send an email but they are not trusted for this kind of thing.
None of this really matters now. The Conservative Party has shown itself to be as divided, if not more divided, than it was under May. Whether or not they do anything about it is up to them not the Labour Party. People have made their minds up about Johnson. You don’t come back from that sort of rating.
Feels to me the party is rather united against Boris.
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
Quite a well calibrated response
I saw first hand why masks are bloody pointless in this country, on two separate tube trips last night - first one an old man took his mask off to sneeze into his hands and then proceeded to use the pole to get out of his seat after putting his mask back on, the second one a teenager took her mask off to cough but also didn't cover her mouth. I see this happen everyday. It's fine to look at scientific studies of how masks work if they're worn exactly right and changed every few hours but that's not how the public use them, half of all people don't wear them properly, the other half don't change them often enough, most are using pointless cloth masks which may actually cause transmission in winter due to condensation formation.
Once again we've got to thank the 100 Tories who stood up against the government on plan B and who hold the future of Boris in their hands right now. He can't cross them.
Does this 'ally' really expect people not to make the connection with the record of loyalty to Cameron and May of another prominent figure?
When was Boris disloyal to Cameron?
If you mean Brexit that was deemed by Cameron a matter of conscience. If "loyalty" was supposed to be expressed even on a conscience vote then presumably there were Brexiteers in 2016 putting misplaced loyalty to Cameron ahead of doing the right thing by the country?
Boris "two letters" Johnson.
1. Dear Boris, If I stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
2. Dear Boris, If I don't stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
Hmm, decisions, decisions?
How was either stabbing Dave in the back, on a conscience vote?
And if that is the attitude then how many Tory MPs put loyalty to Dave ahead of their own better judgement on a referendum which was called a matter of conscience?
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
Captain Darling: "Look, I'm as British as Queen Victoria!!"
Blackadder: "So your father's German, you're half German and you married a German!?
The modern version was "I am as British as Prince Philip"....
Yet she's completely right. See @kinabalu 's sneering remark below
I had in mind a recent comment on here about Neville and his support for Labour, along the lines of Lab shouldn't be trying to ingratiate themselves with blue tick morons who shoot their mouths off on twitter. Well, the Tories have them in cabinet.
Of course masks of any description would be no longer welcome on the Tory side. UJ's on pretty much everything are of course naff as fuck.
And I was hardly sneering. Just said I wasn't keen.
Don't know why the expression of mild dislike of something by somebody of a lefty persuasion is always referred to as "sneering".
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
Quite a well calibrated response
I saw first hand why masks are bloody pointless in this country, on two separate tube trips last night - first one an old man took his mask off to sneeze into his hands and then proceeded to use the pole to get out of his seat after putting his mask back on, the second one a teenager took her mask off to cough but also didn't cover her mouth. I see this happen everyday. It's fine to look at scientific studies of how masks work if they're worn exactly right and changed every few hours but that's not how the public use them, half of all people don't wear them properly, the other half don't change them often enough, most are using pointless cloth masks which may actually cause transmission in winter due to condensation formation.
Once again we've got to thank the 100 Tories who stood up against the government on plan B and who hold the future of Boris in their hands right now. He can't cross them.
Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.
End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.
I was called all sorts of names when I suggested that a month or two ago. Great to see it happening soon.
Yes, because a month or two ago it would have been totally inappropriate.
My wife calls me names if I suggest turning off the heating in February, but suddenly in May she's all for it.
Nice try but I was saying that at some point next year (now this year) we should be looking to drop the measure and March is quite early this year relatively. This is coming faster than I expected. 👍
The reaction of a lot of people here was that it would never be appropriate for the legal restriction on isolation for the positive to be dropped. Not that it should only be dropped in March instead.
Nice try, but this is what you actually said:
Rip off the bandage, have the virus burn through a vaccinated population and if anyone's unvaccinated then they can claim their Darwin Award on the way out.
That's far from the only post I ever made and is not what I was referring to since self isolation wasn't even mentioned in that post or the one I was replying to.
And I stand by that comment 100%.
With this 2 year pandemic drawing to a close, remaining restrictions clearly on their way out in just a short time, you started jumping up and down and yelling like a maniac about "liberty" in order to shore up your libertarian credentials which you feared tarnished by supporting the earlier lockdowns.
You were like a fan of a football club who'd drifted away, then when the team has got to the Cup Final, leading 3-0 with 10 mins left, you come charging into the ground with your club scarf and beanie on, roaring for subs and chasing a 4th.
Except the talk in December was of more restrictions going to be added, not restrictions being removed. So you're talking bullshit.
At the time I was receiving mounds of vitriol on here for bringing up the potential removal of isolation the speculation was of heading into Step 2 lockdown restrictions again. Which as a reminder is a lockdown making it illegal to go into others homes, and making hospitality trading indoors illegal.
We even had a thread header here from @Cyclefree about the idiocy of people expecting hospitality businesses to be trading putdoows only, in England.
So you're full of shit I'm afraid. It wasn't three nil up then. Well I accurately said we were winning because if vaccines etc which is why I was looking to the future, but the mood music and the media etc were fully about increasing restrictions and lockdown.
And again, my views were characterised by @RochdalePioneers and many others as "wanting the freedom to kill others". Why such vitriol and hate on something that was so inevitably going to be acceptable soon?
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
Quite a well calibrated response
I saw first hand why masks are bloody pointless in this country, on two separate tube trips last night - first one an old man took his mask off to sneeze into his hands and then proceeded to use the pole to get out of his seat after putting his mask back on.
While we are all whipping off our masks, let it be noted that yesterday Europe recorded more cases in a single day than at any other moment in the pandemic
Maybe a dozen European countries are at peak case-load - again for the whole pandemic. There are also hefty numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. And cases are rising again around the world - Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, etc etc etc - some of them reaching new peaks
This is presumably Omicron. The plague is far from over for 80% of the world.
And lurking in the shadows is the *possibility* - no more than that at the moment - that Omicron BA2 is behind some of the European troubles. There are weird double Omicron peaks occurring. eg Croatia
Doesn’t really matter. As with any defector, his destiny for the rest of his term is to be ultra-loyal, doing exactly as he is told, and soaking up any shit passed his way. If he gets re-elected and shows any promise, he might be rewarded with a small step on the ladder thereafter.
Shaun Woodward says hello
I think Shaun Woodward was slightly different though - he was married as I recall to the/a Sainsbury’s heiress and in the world of Blair’s Labour, who were very comfortable with wealth and enjoyed the social mixing and financial support of circles such as the Woodward-Sainsburys (sounds like an out of town hypermarket near Basingstoke), he was a very useful capture and so was given opportunities at a higher level.
I would imagine that the treacherous pig-dog of Bury South however will be forever lobby fodder at best as intellectually he’s probably not got much to offer, his back story is tarnished for many in Labour, he’s not connected in a useful way to business or society or media and so he’s not actually got great prospects I would think.
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
Quite a well calibrated response
I saw first hand why masks are bloody pointless in this country, on two separate tube trips last night - first one an old man took his mask off to sneeze into his hands and then proceeded to use the pole to get out of his seat after putting his mask back on, the second one a teenager took her mask off to cough but also didn't cover her mouth. I see this happen everyday. It's fine to look at scientific studies of how masks work if they're worn exactly right and changed every few hours but that's not how the public use them, half of all people don't wear them properly, the other half don't change them often enough, most are using pointless cloth masks which may actually cause transmission in winter due to condensation formation.
Marvellous. You saw two people taking masks off to cough or sneeze, and you think that proves they're pointless.
Perhaps you think the case of Steven Hilder proves that it's better not to bother with a parachute if you're skydiving.
None of this really matters now. The Conservative Party has shown itself to be as divided, if not more divided, than it was under May. Whether or not they do anything about it is up to them not the Labour Party. People have made their minds up about Johnson. You don’t come back from that sort of rating.
Comparing the May divisions over Brexit to a disagreement over whether to try to sack Boris now or in 1/3/9 months, is a bit much.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
The Queen was born and brought up in the UK. As were both her parents. As were all four of her grandparents. How many generations do you have to go back to be free of immigrants do you have to be in the SNP view of the world?
Nothing to do with the SNP, but the Tory Brexiter view of the world.
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Given 460k cases - which is certain to be a substantial undercount - I would have thought the end would certainly be in sight for France. That's probably 1.5% of the population getting COVID in a single day. That means half the country will have had it in just a month.
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
I wonder if France has Omicron BA2
One of the things about this "stealth Omicron" is that it isn't luckily picked up by routine PCR tests the way Omicron Classic is, you can only find it with proper genome sequencing: exactly the kind of thing which Denmark does, excellently. So Denmark may well not be unique, it's just noticed BA2 before anyone else, because it is actively looking for this kind of thing
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
While we are all whipping off our masks, let it be noted that yesterday Europe recorded more cases in a single day than at any other moment in the pandemic
Maybe a dozen European countries are at peak case-load - again for the whole pandemic. There are also hefty numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. And cases are rising again around the world - Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, etc etc etc - some of them reaching new peaks
This is presumably Omicron. The plague is far from over for 80% of the world.
And lurking in the shadows is the *possibility* - no more than that at the moment - that Omicron BA2 is behind some of the European troubles. There are weird double Omicron peaks occurring. eg Croatia
Spare a thought for poor old Macron, watching perfidious Albion getting freedom as he heaps restrictions on covid ridden France ahead of an election...
I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns
Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
I've not been out today (glued to my bloody home office desk, buried in work) but I did wonder whether the impact would be immediate. Officially, the masking mandate doesn't expire until 0001hrs on Thursday week.
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
In Camden the immediate reaction appears to be "keep your mask but let it dangle from your ear", or "look I've still got a tatty old mask but it is barely covering my chin"
Quite a well calibrated response
I saw first hand why masks are bloody pointless in this country, on two separate tube trips last night - first one an old man took his mask off to sneeze into his hands and then proceeded to use the pole to get out of his seat after putting his mask back on, the second one a teenager took her mask off to cough but also didn't cover her mouth. I see this happen everyday. It's fine to look at scientific studies of how masks work if they're worn exactly right and changed every few hours but that's not how the public use them, half of all people don't wear them properly, the other half don't change them often enough, most are using pointless cloth masks which may actually cause transmission in winter due to condensation formation.
Marvellous. You saw two people taking masks off to cough or sneeze, and you think that proves they're pointless.
Perhaps you think the case of Steven Hilder proves that it's better not to bother with a parachute if you're skydiving.
To be fair - the paper "cloth" masks are a gesture. Use an FFP3. It's not like you can't get them...
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
The Queen was born and brought up in the UK. As were both her parents. As were all four of her grandparents. How many generations do you have to go back to be free of immigrants do you have to be in the SNP view of the world?
lol. Reminds me of the local newspaper report here on a woman whose family moved here from Essex during the war, when she was a teenager, and she then spent the rest of her life on the island, involved in various charities and good works, eventually dying in her 90s. The story headline was “Well-known Chelmsford woman dies aged 95”.
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
France is quite similar to us, rather than say Italy.. Median Age = 42.3 For UK it is 40.6. Italy = 47.
The differences around the late 1940s to mid 1950s birthdates are intriguing, but explicable with a little thought.
BTW if you got AZ plus MRNA you lucked out. That's the optimum combo. It might even explain why the UK is APPARENTLY faring better AT THE MOMENT than elsewhere
"study participants who received heterologous vaccination with AZ followed by an mRNA vaccine showed markedly higher antibody titers than individuals who received two doses of an mRNA vaccine or two doses of AZ"
While we are all whipping off our masks, let it be noted that yesterday Europe recorded more cases in a single day than at any other moment in the pandemic
Maybe a dozen European countries are at peak case-load - again for the whole pandemic. There are also hefty numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. And cases are rising again around the world - Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, etc etc etc - some of them reaching new peaks
This is presumably Omicron. The plague is far from over for 80% of the world.
And lurking in the shadows is the *possibility* - no more than that at the moment - that Omicron BA2 is behind some of the European troubles. There are weird double Omicron peaks occurring. eg Croatia
I've been consistently bullish on Omicron. But I must admit, yesterday's numbers in the UK were very disappointing. We will see a WoW uptick in cases by day of test in a few days - that's not just a reporting quirk. And the peak in deaths keeps approaching but we haven't yet got to a stage where we can see it in the rear view mirror.
I remain optimistic that: a) the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths - while not broken - has been damaged. Far more cases than before are utterly trivial. b) deaths/hospitalisations from vs with, etc. etc. c) it will all be manageable and most importantly d) restrictions are justifiable neither in principle nor in practice.
But I'm not pretending covid's gone away, nor will do so for some time yet.
What happens in the rest of the world where they are less vaxxed and less priorly immune with omicron will be fascinating to see. If I were to guess I would guess it'll be a lot of worry about not much a la South Africa.
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
France is quite similar to us, rather than say Italy.. Median Age = 42.3 For UK it is 40.6. Italy = 47.
France UK
Fascinating. I wonder why there is that sharp drop in population at around 73 in France? And the peak and then drop at about the same age in the UK? At fist I thought something to do with the end of the war but that doesn't work as it is a few years out.
Doesn’t really matter. As with any defector, his destiny for the rest of his term is to be ultra-loyal, doing exactly as he is told, and soaking up any shit passed his way. If he gets re-elected and shows any promise, he might be rewarded with a small step on the ladder thereafter.
Shaun Woodward says hello
I think Shaun Woodward was slightly different though - he was married as I recall to the/a Sainsbury’s heiress and in the world of Blair’s Labour, who were very comfortable with wealth and enjoyed the social mixing and financial support of circles such as the Woodward-Sainsburys (sounds like an out of town hypermarket near Basingstoke), he was a very useful capture and so was given opportunities at a higher level.
I would imagine that the treacherous pig-dog of Bury South however will be forever lobby fodder at best as intellectually he’s probably not got much to offer, his back story is tarnished for many in Labour, he’s not connected in a useful way to business or society or media and so he’s not actually got great prospects I would think.
I always think it's a bit seedy when people slag off former colleagues the moment they've defected - I made a point of not doing it with people who left Labour in 2017-19, though I had to bite my lip at times. Ultimately MPs are entitled to change their views as the parties around them evolve. Let's see how he develops.
In Shaun's case, IIRC he has a disabled child and was especially upset about Conservative policy in that area.
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
France is quite similar to us, rather than say Italy.. Median Age = 42.3 For UK it is 40.6. Italy = 47.
France UK
Fascinating. I wonder why there is that sharp drop in population at around 73 in France? And the peak and then drop at about the same age in the UK? At fist I thought something to do with the end of the war but that doesn't work as it is a few years out.
BTW if you got AZ plus MRNA you lucked out. That's the optimum combo. It might even explain why the UK is APPARENTLY faring better AT THE MOMENT than elsewhere
"study participants who received heterologous vaccination with AZ followed by an mRNA vaccine showed markedly higher antibody titers than individuals who received two doses of an mRNA vaccine or two doses of AZ"
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
France is quite similar to us, rather than say Italy.. Median Age = 42.3 For UK it is 40.6. Italy = 47.
France UK
Fascinating. I wonder why there is that sharp drop in population at around 73 in France? And the peak and then drop at about the same age in the UK? At fist I thought something to do with the end of the war but that doesn't work as it is a few years out.
That's 1949 births - but don't forget
(a) demobilization took a while, then people took a while to settle and find partners and get married, then add 9 months (b) there was still a backlog of housing to be repaired so people had to stay with in-laws - would have waited till accommodation became available
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
The Queen was born and brought up in the UK. As were both her parents. As were all four of her grandparents. How many generations do you have to go back to be free of immigrants do you have to be in the SNP view of the world?
Nothing to do with the SNP, but the Tory Brexiter view of the world.
It was you that was describing the Queen as German. And it appears the Tories are about to make a child of immigrants the British Prime Minister.
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
France is quite similar to us, rather than say Italy.. Median Age = 42.3 For UK it is 40.6. Italy = 47.
France UK
Fascinating. I wonder why there is that sharp drop in population at around 73 in France? And the peak and then drop at about the same age in the UK? At fist I thought something to do with the end of the war but that doesn't work as it is a few years out.
What's weird is it seems to be matched by a spike in births in the UK at almost the same age.
Of course, worth noting that Italy is older because lots of young Italians (and other EUropeans) left for the UK.
While we are all whipping off our masks, let it be noted that yesterday Europe recorded more cases in a single day than at any other moment in the pandemic
Maybe a dozen European countries are at peak case-load - again for the whole pandemic. There are also hefty numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. And cases are rising again around the world - Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, etc etc etc - some of them reaching new peaks
This is presumably Omicron. The plague is far from over for 80% of the world.
And lurking in the shadows is the *possibility* - no more than that at the moment - that Omicron BA2 is behind some of the European troubles. There are weird double Omicron peaks occurring. eg Croatia
I've been consistently bullish on Omicron. But I must admit, yesterday's numbers in the UK were very disappointing. We will see a WoW uptick in cases by day of test in a few days - that's not just a reporting quirk. And the peak in deaths keeps approaching but we haven't yet got to a stage where we can see it in the rear view mirror.
I remain optimistic that: a) the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths - while not broken - has been damaged. Far more cases than before are utterly trivial. b) deaths/hospitalisations from vs with, etc. etc. c) it will all be manageable and most importantly d) restrictions are justifiable neither in principle nor in practice.
But I'm not pretending covid's gone away, nor will do so for some time yet.
What happens in the rest of the world where they are less vaxxed and less priorly immune with omicron will be fascinating to see. If I were to guess I would guess it'll be a lot of worry about not much a la South Africa.
Yes, if BA2 is more transmissible (seems likely now) then it will surely come here and our cases will rise again. I don't see why we would be immune. Tho our much greater level of prior infection, and an excellent booster roll out, will help
The big worry then is: can it reinfect? And can it reinfect people who have already had Omicron the First?
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
France is quite similar to us, rather than say Italy.. Median Age = 42.3 For UK it is 40.6. Italy = 47.
France UK
Fascinating. I wonder why there is that sharp drop in population at around 73 in France? And the peak and then drop at about the same age in the UK? At fist I thought something to do with the end of the war but that doesn't work as it is a few years out.
The baby boom peaked at the end of the 40s.
Ah. Just realised I was reading the graph the wrong way round of course. It is a jump not a drop.
While we are all whipping off our masks, let it be noted that yesterday Europe recorded more cases in a single day than at any other moment in the pandemic
Maybe a dozen European countries are at peak case-load - again for the whole pandemic. There are also hefty numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. And cases are rising again around the world - Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, etc etc etc - some of them reaching new peaks
This is presumably Omicron. The plague is far from over for 80% of the world.
And lurking in the shadows is the *possibility* - no more than that at the moment - that Omicron BA2 is behind some of the European troubles. There are weird double Omicron peaks occurring. eg Croatia
I've been consistently bullish on Omicron. But I must admit, yesterday's numbers in the UK were very disappointing. We will see a WoW uptick in cases by day of test in a few days - that's not just a reporting quirk. And the peak in deaths keeps approaching but we haven't yet got to a stage where we can see it in the rear view mirror.
I remain optimistic that: a) the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths - while not broken - has been damaged. Far more cases than before are utterly trivial. b) deaths/hospitalisations from vs with, etc. etc. c) it will all be manageable and most importantly d) restrictions are justifiable neither in principle nor in practice.
But I'm not pretending covid's gone away, nor will do so for some time yet.
What happens in the rest of the world where they are less vaxxed and less priorly immune with omicron will be fascinating to see. If I were to guess I would guess it'll be a lot of worry about not much a la South Africa.
Yes, if BA2 is more transmissible (seems likely now) then it will surely come here and our cases will rise again. I don't see why we would be immune. Tho our much greater level of prior infection, and an excellent booster roll out, will help
The big worry then is: can it reinfect? And can it reinfect people who have already had Omicron the First?
If the answer is yes that could be trouble
If it does reinfect, one would expect an even milder case, as the body will already have Omicron antibodies.
While we are all whipping off our masks, let it be noted that yesterday Europe recorded more cases in a single day than at any other moment in the pandemic
Maybe a dozen European countries are at peak case-load - again for the whole pandemic. There are also hefty numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. And cases are rising again around the world - Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, etc etc etc - some of them reaching new peaks
This is presumably Omicron. The plague is far from over for 80% of the world.
And lurking in the shadows is the *possibility* - no more than that at the moment - that Omicron BA2 is behind some of the European troubles. There are weird double Omicron peaks occurring. eg Croatia
I've been consistently bullish on Omicron. But I must admit, yesterday's numbers in the UK were very disappointing. We will see a WoW uptick in cases by day of test in a few days - that's not just a reporting quirk. And the peak in deaths keeps approaching but we haven't yet got to a stage where we can see it in the rear view mirror.
I remain optimistic that: a) the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths - while not broken - has been damaged. Far more cases than before are utterly trivial. b) deaths/hospitalisations from vs with, etc. etc. c) it will all be manageable and most importantly d) restrictions are justifiable neither in principle nor in practice.
But I'm not pretending covid's gone away, nor will do so for some time yet.
What happens in the rest of the world where they are less vaxxed and less priorly immune with omicron will be fascinating to see. If I were to guess I would guess it'll be a lot of worry about not much a la South Africa.
Yes, if BA2 is more transmissible (seems likely now) then it will surely come here and our cases will rise again. I don't see why we would be immune. Tho our much greater level of prior infection, and an excellent booster roll out, will help
The big worry then is: can it reinfect? And can it reinfect people who have already had Omicron the First?
If the answer is yes that could be trouble
Each time someone gets reinfected the severity will decrease, our immune systems are better primed to recognise and destroy infected cells. I saw somewhere that something like 2% of people in the UK haven't previously been infected or vaccinated. The pandemic is over, the public health threat is over and it's been over since the middle of June last year.
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
I think Remainers licking their lips about taking us back into the EU or EU-lite are making a big mistake. The UK being in charge of our own laws, controlling immigration, not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us etc is still very popular in the red wall and most of the South. A Tory PM that exudes competence and reflects those values can restore the realignment of the electorate.
"not having appointed German aristocrats ruling us"
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
The Queen was born and brought up in the UK. As were both her parents. As were all four of her grandparents. How many generations do you have to go back to be free of immigrants do you have to be in the SNP view of the world?
lol. Reminds me of the local newspaper report here on a woman whose family moved here from Essex during the war, when she was a teenager, and she then spent the rest of her life on the island, involved in various charities and good works, eventually dying in her 90s. The story headline was “Well-known Chelmsford woman dies aged 95”.
You can take the lady out of The 'Ford, but you can't take The 'Ford out of the lady
Comments
When Shaun Woodward defected from the tories he was rewarded with a plum safe labour seat of St Helens South.
Source
Although i do not believe it is good acceptable or consistent with a DS Party
The whole situation is win / win for Labour - Boris stays on, damage the whole Tory brand, Boris goes, longer to go at the new man, more of the pain will stick to them, honeymoon over sooner, longer to make it to the next GE.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1483800069388357633
1. Dear Boris, If I stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
2. Dear Boris, If I don't stab Dave in the back do I become PM. Lots of Love Boris
Hmm, decisions, decisions?
https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/
I never knew that Sunak was SUCH a eurosceptic. He was a Leaver in his teens, there is nothing opportunistic about it
For this reason alone he is sure to win. The Brexiteers want to secure Brexit. His biggest rivals are Remainers
Of course masks of any description would be no longer welcome on the Tory side. UJ's on pretty much everything are of course naff as fuck.
It's going to become more of an emphasis, not less.
Tory MPs play games on this all the time because it creates entertaining mayhem,
Like most cyclists I have no problem sharing the road. The problem is the extremists who think otherwise.
A defector has huge leverage before they jump, and next to none afterwards. The only incentive for Labour to be honourable is so as not to dissuade those who might follow.
https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1483807316793307140?s=20
https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1483807754951270405?s=20
An amazing survivor
I once heard gossip about his household that would make your eyes water. If half of it ever came out...
Of course - moderators please note! - it might very well NOT be true, and I am certainly not alleging anything. No sir. Not me. Nope.
I didn't know the Brexiters had gone hard-on Republican (well except Ms Truss of course).
But it's now a lame duck rule. Is anyone going to enforce it for the next week? Is it already a gonna?
You said myself and a couple of others had
I dont believe any PBer used that phrase
I was probably the most negative but never used that phrase.
Sometimes you just have to say 'sod it' and plough on anyway.
That's pretty much Boris's modus operandi, and as we are seeing, that has its upsides, and it has its downsides.
I think we're past the upsides now, which is why he has to go. It needs someone new to deal with the aftermath (much like Iraq did).
Quite a well calibrated response
It's not a question of whether it was a party, or whether Boris Johnson - like some proverbial High Court judge of old - wasn't really sure what a party was, even when he was at one.
The question is whether it was essential for work purposes. Conceivably it could be argued that it was. Strangely, I don't think I've ever heard that argued, though.
Blackadder: "So your father's German, you're half German and you married a German!?
And there are some interesting defections around - one of Lutfur Rahman's Tower Hamlets sidekicks is now a prominent Lib Dem iirc, for example.
And if that is the attitude then how many Tory MPs put loyalty to Dave ahead of their own better judgement on a referendum which was called a matter of conscience?
Once again we've got to thank the 100 Tories who stood up against the government on plan B and who hold the future of Boris in their hands right now. He can't cross them.
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2.
-what is BA.2?
-what is BA.2 doing currently?
-Should we be concerned about it?"
https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1483768659420094464?s=20
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2
The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone.
16 more Covid-linked deaths.
Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821
The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1483790427769774081?s=20
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
Don't know why the expression of mild dislike of something by somebody of a lefty persuasion is always referred to as "sneering".
At the time I was receiving mounds of vitriol on here for bringing up the potential removal of isolation the speculation was of heading into Step 2 lockdown restrictions again. Which as a reminder is a lockdown making it illegal to go into others homes, and making hospitality trading indoors illegal.
We even had a thread header here from @Cyclefree about the idiocy of people expecting hospitality businesses to be trading putdoows only, in England.
So you're full of shit I'm afraid. It wasn't three nil up then. Well I accurately said we were winning because if vaccines etc which is why I was looking to the future, but the mood music and the media etc were fully about increasing restrictions and lockdown.
And again, my views were characterised by @RochdalePioneers and many others as "wanting the freedom to kill others". Why such vitriol and hate on something that was so inevitably going to be acceptable soon?
Maybe a dozen European countries are at peak case-load - again for the whole pandemic. There are also hefty numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. And cases are rising again around the world - Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, etc etc etc - some of them reaching new peaks
This is presumably Omicron. The plague is far from over for 80% of the world.
And lurking in the shadows is the *possibility* - no more than that at the moment - that Omicron BA2 is behind some of the European troubles. There are weird double Omicron peaks occurring. eg Croatia
I would imagine that the treacherous pig-dog of Bury South however will be forever lobby fodder at best as intellectually he’s probably not got much to offer, his back story is tarnished for many in Labour, he’s not connected in a useful way to business or society or media and so he’s not actually got great prospects I would think.
Perhaps you think the case of Steven Hilder proves that it's better not to bother with a parachute if you're skydiving.
One of the things about this "stealth Omicron" is that it isn't luckily picked up by routine PCR tests the way Omicron Classic is, you can only find it with proper genome sequencing: exactly the kind of thing which Denmark does, excellently. So Denmark may well not be unique, it's just noticed BA2 before anyone else, because it is actively looking for this kind of thing
The differences around the late 1940s to mid 1950s birthdates are intriguing, but explicable with a little thought.
France
UK
"study participants who received heterologous vaccination with AZ followed by an mRNA vaccine showed markedly higher antibody titers than individuals who received two doses of an mRNA vaccine or two doses of AZ"
https://twitter.com/YachtNinky/status/1483774751906615297?s=20
I remain optimistic that:
a) the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths - while not broken - has been damaged. Far more cases than before are utterly trivial.
b) deaths/hospitalisations from vs with, etc. etc.
c) it will all be manageable
and most importantly d) restrictions are justifiable neither in principle nor in practice.
But I'm not pretending covid's gone away, nor will do so for some time yet.
What happens in the rest of the world where they are less vaxxed and less priorly immune with omicron will be fascinating to see. If I were to guess I would guess it'll be a lot of worry about not much a la South Africa.
In Shaun's case, IIRC he has a disabled child and was especially upset about Conservative policy in that area.
Germany, btw, has actually been pretty good at mixing-and-matching. Merkel was AZ followed by Pfizer.
Edit to add: the first studies on mixing and matching are from relatively early last year, and were very clear on the benefits.
(a) demobilization took a while, then people took a while to settle and find partners and get married, then add 9 months
(b) there was still a backlog of housing to be repaired so people had to stay with in-laws - would have waited till accommodation became available
Of course, worth noting that Italy is older because lots of young Italians (and other EUropeans) left for the UK.
The big worry then is: can it reinfect? And can it reinfect people who have already had Omicron the First?
If the answer is yes that could be trouble