Some terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

It might be a mistake to underestimate Starmer. His father was a toolmaker, his mother a nurse, struck down by illness. He rose, via the 11 plus to be DPP, knight of the realm, MP and leader of the Opposition.

Starmer does not greatly enthuse but he also does not scare middle class voters like Kinnock and Corbyn did either

dixiedean said:

MrEd said:

dixiedean said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

Without endorsing your analysis re: Labour and Starmer, the precedents of Eden> Macmillan and Thatcher > Major seems to bolster view that it's not (yet) game over for the Tories.

However. This would be their fourth PM in six years. At some stage folk will surely twig it isn't the leader who is the problem.
Surely?

It used to be the case only as late as ten years ago that, if you changed jobs in the City every 3 years it was seen as a negative. Now it’s seen as a negative if you don’t change that frequently.

I suspect the 4 leaders in 6 years won’t matter for much.

Maybe. Or maybe I grew up Thatcher to Blair era.
28 years. Only 3 PM's. That was historically the outlier I guess.

On that. Remarkable to think John Major lasted as long as the 2015 election to now.

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

Tragicomic

All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.

And here's another dog that didn't bark

"Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

"Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.

I think I only saw one Northern Irish poll on Article 16, but IIRC they were strongly opposed to its use.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

Tragicomic

All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.

And here's another dog that didn't bark

"Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

"Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.

I think I only saw one Northern Irish poll on Article 16, but IIRC they were strongly opposed to its use.

Unionists weren't and the DUP will walk out of the Stormont Executive if Article 16 is not triggered by May to regain votes lost to the TUV.

A Starmer premiership would resolve the problem largely anyway by taking GB back into a customs union with the EU and more closely aligned to the EEA, a Starmer Brexit would likely be May's Deal+

Very democratic.

rcs1000 said:

edmundintokyo said:

Leon said:

UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

Tragicomic

Have they really blown it though? I mean, can anyone think of a general election that was ever lost by trivial bullshit like this, even in some indirect "loss of trust" kind of way?

Maybe I'm missing the depth of anger on the ground and something to do with The Queen but these things happen in mid-term, I don't see why they can't just take the local election L and carry on.

I agree with this.

Let us not forget that the polls are not showing lots of Conservative to Labour switchers. They are instead showing lots of Conservative to Would Not Vote. When push comes to shove a great many of those (spiral of silence adjustment!) will come back.

Still: the Conservatives should not get too complacent. Even if three quarters of the WNV come back, that only gets them to 300-odd seats. Add in a little tactical voting (and I think 2024 will have the most tactical voting for almost two decades), and you get Conservatives neck-and-neck with Labour on around 280.

It has completely cut through. I have had a completely apolitical friend who has never voted ranting at me about Boris having a party while his aunt was dying in hospital.

MrEd said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

It might be a mistake to underestimate Starmer. His father was a toolmaker, his mother a nurse, struck down by illness. He rose, via the 11 plus to be DPP, knight of the realm, MP and leader of the Opposition.

Starmer does not greatly enthuse but he also does not scare middle class voters like Kinnock and Corbyn did either

To me and a lot of people, even on the left. He comes across as insincere. I think Starmer is going to be one of those leaders who underperforms expectations .

On the other hand, could be that Starmer turns out to be another Atlee, by exceeding expectations.

MrEd said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

It might be a mistake to underestimate Starmer. His father was a toolmaker, his mother a nurse, struck down by illness. He rose, via the 11 plus to be DPP, knight of the realm, MP and leader of the Opposition.

Starmer does not greatly enthuse but he also does not scare middle class voters like Kinnock and Corbyn did either

To me and a lot of people, even on the left. He comes across as insincere. I think Starmer is going to be one of those leaders who underperforms expectations .

Or he could be Biden to Boris' Trump, or Hollande to Boris' Sarkozy or Prodi to Boris' Berlusconi or even Attlee to Boris' Churchill

Leon said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

TimS said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

UK GDP back to pre pandemic levels. A great economic success story. All hail future PM Rishi.

France got there several months earlier:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/france-s-economy-is-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-growing

And as for Germany…

Germany hasn't managed it yet


"The US, France, Denmark and Sweden are among the other rich countries to have recovered all the lost ground during the pandemic while Germany, Italy and Spain have yet to pass the pandemic milestone"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/14/uk-economy-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-in-november

Well you have me there. I’m genuinely surprised given how much better than almost everyone else they did in 2020. 2021 seems to have been a very bad year for Germany.

Perhaps the relative performance of France vs Germany tells us all something about our assumptions about national economies.

I’m not surprised about Denmark. A smart country all round.

Bear in mind that Germany is a market heavily dependent on exports for GDP growth. Consumer consumption is quite low as a percentage. So, considering world markets have been impacted so much in terms of logistics etc, maybe not so much a surprise.

Having said that, the FT had an article saying Chinese exports had risen 30% during the pandemic.

Germany is super dependent on export of capital goods (i.e. the machines to make machines). Fixed capital investment plummeted during the last two years (although it's beginning to roar back), so we shouldn't be that surprised.

Nor should we be surprised that countries with massive tourism sectors (Spain, Italy, Greece) have all been badly hit. (Portugal seems to have hit new highs in Q421, so that's the only exception to that.)

Portugal is always a bit of an outlier on that front because their Governments have always taken a broader view of the economy than “let’s rely on tourism”.

Personally, I think Portugal tonne one of the most underrated countries - great beaches, wonderful weather, food and architecture, and very friendly (although not the most attractive…)

Portuguese food is rather disappointing - not a patch on British food for variety, skill and imagination

Once you go beyond sardines and cataplana you struggle. Foreign cuisines are extremely hard to find outside the Algarve and Lisbon

On the coast you will generally get decent seafood. Always choose the simplest option. Grilled fish with potatoes. Clams and a glass of beer

Otherwise it’s a very pleasant country indeed. Glorious climate in the south. Very sunny but temperatures moderated by the Atlantic

Re: the seafood, sound a LOT like New Orleans & south Louisiana. Substituting crabs (or crawfish) for the clams.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

Tragicomic

All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.

And here's another dog that didn't bark

"Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

"Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.

I think I only saw one Northern Irish poll on Article 16, but IIRC they were strongly opposed to its use.

Unionists weren't and the DUP will walk out of the Stormont Executive if Article 16 is not triggered by May to regain votes lost to the TUV.

The TUV didn't contest the 2019 election.

They did the 2017 Assembly election

That pre-dated the 2019 general election by two years! They currently only have 1 assembly member out of 90, and only 6 councillors out of 462!

They currently are polling 11% to 18% for the DUP

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/dup-battling-back-but-sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-still-on-course-for-first-minister-41047391.html

HYUFD said:

MrEd said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

It might be a mistake to underestimate Starmer. His father was a toolmaker, his mother a nurse, struck down by illness. He rose, via the 11 plus to be DPP, knight of the realm, MP and leader of the Opposition.

Starmer does not greatly enthuse but he also does not scare middle class voters like Kinnock and Corbyn did either

To me and a lot of people, even on the left. He comes across as insincere. I think Starmer is going to be one of those leaders who underperforms expectations .

Or he could be Biden to Boris' Trump, or Hollande to Boris' Sarkozy or Prodi to Boris' Berlusconi or even Attlee to Boris' Churchill

While I see & agree where your coming from - on this point, anyway! - think that to make amends for the phrase "Boris's Churchill" you should travel post haste to Chartwell to tender you apologies to Sir Winston's no-doubt agitated spirit!

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

Tragicomic

All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.

And here's another dog that didn't bark

"Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

"Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.

I think I only saw one Northern Irish poll on Article 16, but IIRC they were strongly opposed to its use.

Unionists weren't and the DUP will walk out of the Stormont Executive if Article 16 is not triggered by May to regain votes lost to the TUV.

A Starmer premiership would resolve the problem largely anyway by taking the whole UK back into a customs union with the EU and more closely aligned to the EEA, a Starmer Brexit would likely be May's Deal+

If 95% of Republicans don't support the invocation of Article 16, and 40% of Unionists are opposed, then that's a pretty large majority against its use.

For what it's worth, just stumbled upon episodes of "Colditz" the TV series on YouTube. Which I've never before seen, even though I've been a fan of WWII POW escape literature for over 50 years.

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

Tragicomic

All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.

And here's another dog that didn't bark

"Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

"Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.

I think I only saw one Northern Irish poll on Article 16, but IIRC they were strongly opposed to its use.

NI seems to be booming already.

I wonder how the ROI economy will do after the changes to the international tax system?

Will some of that move to NI - are there enough differences between ROI 'single market' and NI 'single market'?

MattW said:

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

Tragicomic

All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.

And here's another dog that didn't bark

"Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

"Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.

I think I only saw one Northern Irish poll on Article 16, but IIRC they were strongly opposed to its use.

NI seems to be booming already.

I wonder how the ROI economy will do after the changes to the international tax system?

Will some of that move to NI - are there enough differences between ROI 'single market' and NI 'single market'?

Ireland isn't that much of a tax outlier any more - it's at 12.5% corporation tax, which is above some of the Eastern European countries. (Hungary is 9%.)

What will happen next is that Ireland will move corporation tax up to 15%, but introduce a whole bunch of things that can be offset against tax there (like corporate entertaining), that aren't allowed in most jurisdictions.

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Fishing said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

It shouldn't be too much to ask to find a leader with some charisma who will actually implement Conservative policies, rather than - Brexit aside - governing from the soft left.

The Redwall will not vote for more austerity either.

The Cameron Remain seats from 2015 now Labour or LD will not vote for anything but a softer Brexit which also loses the Redwall and sees Leavers go RefUK.

I see no path to a Tory majority even with Sunak, unless on a populist low tax, high spend, keep our current Brexit deal and no more restrictions on the vaccinated ticket which might scrape home a la Major 1992 but even then unlikely

I don't think you are as wrong as others on here suggest. I believe you have pitched Starmer about right. I also think you have the measure of Truss and to a lesser extent Hunt. Sunak, assuming he takes his opportunities quickly could revive the Conservatives fortunes unless the economy gets very lairy, which it will That said, there are some vastly more impressive potential leaders under the radar, and no, Steve Baker isn't one of them.

Where you are wrong is Johnson. There is no way back from the party fiascos. What was he thinking? It's time for you to realise, the World King is dead, long live the King.

Speaking of Churhill(s) perhaps the fine example of John Churchill, subsequently 1st Duke of Marlborough, may be intructive?

> When James II took the thrown, JC was his longtime supporter AND protege, and he took a major role in suppressing Monmouth's (premature) Rebellion.

> When the "Protestant Wind" carried William of Orange (husband of James's daughter Mary) from Holland to England, JC took the field with King James against the invader

> But JC was increasingly disturbed, both by James's overt, intensifying Catholic agenda AND by the King's growing, expanding unpopularity in England, if not (most) of Ireland

> So when it was clear that the bulk of establishment & public opinion was behind William, JC chose his moment . . . and galloped over to William's camp.

Where JC > Duke of Marlborough remained with considerable personal & professional success - to put it most mildly. Until that is his wife Sarah pissed off W's successor & sister in law Queen Anne BIG time.

But THAT's a whole other soap opera / Masterpiece Theater special.

Choosing the right moment to abandon ship for safer haven, is a skill developed to at least some extent by all successful politicos under just about any political system. Esp. true for top-to-mid level British parliamentarians.

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

HYUFD said:

Fishing said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

It shouldn't be too much to ask to find a leader with some charisma who will actually implement Conservative policies, rather than - Brexit aside - governing from the soft left.

The Redwall will not vote for more austerity either.

The Cameron Remain seats from 2015 now Labour or LD will not vote for anything but a softer Brexit which also loses the Redwall and sees Leavers go RefUK.

I see no path to a Tory majority even with Sunak, unless on a populist low tax, high spend, keep our current Brexit deal and no more restrictions on the vaccinated ticket which might scrape home a la Major 1992 but even then unlikely

Major won by 8 points - hardly scraping home. The same performance by the Conservatives on UNS would give a substantial majority, especially if they could squeeze the Brexit party vote from 2019.

Major was the first PM who got hammered by anti-Conservative tactical voting. On UNS, the Cons should have managed a 40 or 50 seat majority as their vote only dipped by 0.3%, but they ended up with 21.

Anti-Conservative tactical voting worsened in 1997, and remained a major problem for the party until the 2010 General Election. It's worth remembering that the Labour Party got a 66 seat majority in 2006 on just a 3.2% lead over Labour.

Another problem for the Tories was that the boundaries in 1992 were based on 1976 electorates which was before a lot of places like Cambridgeshire and Northamptonshire had started to register major population growth in the 80s and early 90s, which meant the Tories piled up huge numbers of votes in seats like Major's own in Huntingdon.

TimS said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

UK GDP back to pre pandemic levels. A great economic success story. All hail future PM Rishi.

France got there several months earlier:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/france-s-economy-is-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-growing

And as for Germany…

Germany hasn't managed it yet


"The US, France, Denmark and Sweden are among the other rich countries to have recovered all the lost ground during the pandemic while Germany, Italy and Spain have yet to pass the pandemic milestone"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/14/uk-economy-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-in-november

Well you have me there. I’m genuinely surprised given how much better than almost everyone else they did in 2020. 2021 seems to have been a very bad year for Germany.

Perhaps the relative performance of France vs Germany tells us all something about our assumptions about national economies.

I’m not surprised about Denmark. A smart country all round.

Germany and Italy both continued to take the restrictions seriously through 2021, hence the continuing hit to their economies. Also in the latter’s case, the hit to tourism, which is big for Italy, and which they exacerbated by essentially turning off British and American tourism for the whole summer.

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

HYUFD said:

Fishing said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

Chameleon said:

Leon said:

The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

None of the others do

He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.

I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

And he's more articulate than Starmer

I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see

Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.

Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority

It shouldn't be too much to ask to find a leader with some charisma who will actually implement Conservative policies, rather than - Brexit aside - governing from the soft left.

The Redwall will not vote for more austerity either.

The Cameron Remain seats from 2015 now Labour or LD will not vote for anything but a softer Brexit which also loses the Redwall and sees Leavers go RefUK.

I see no path to a Tory majority even with Sunak, unless on a populist low tax, high spend, keep our current Brexit deal and no more restrictions on the vaccinated ticket which might scrape home a la Major 1992 but even then unlikely

Major won by 8 points - hardly scraping home. The same performance by the Conservatives on UNS would give a substantial majority, especially if they could squeeze the Brexit party vote from 2019.

Major was the first PM who got hammered by anti-Conservative tactical voting. On UNS, the Cons should have managed a 40 or 50 seat majority as their vote only dipped by 0.3%, but they ended up with 21.

Anti-Conservative tactical voting worsenedimproved in 1997, and remained a major problem for the party until the 2010 General Election. It's worth remembering that the Labour Party got a 66 seat majority in 2006 on just a 3.2% lead over Labour.

Corrected for you.