Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Some terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com

1246789

Comments

  • Still, at least it puts the Sue Grey "independent investigation" into context. The one that was supposed to give Big Dog enough wiggle room to survive.

    How do they explain around "wine-time fridays" with the Downing Street Booze Fridge replenished by the suitcase? They were on the schlam every week. Never mind "I thought it was a work meeting" this is Friday night razzle dazzle every week.

    I still think he will try and brazen this out. But frankly can't see how "oh fuck right off" isn't the response to anyone trying to defend it.
  • Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    "WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP"

    Surely a question that answers itself?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_xP said:

    Thoughts and prayers with Rees-Mogg tonight. Fucking twat.

    Losing his seat on UNS in the latest poll.
  • On Monday morning, Graham Brady mail sack is going to be huge....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Or BJO to tell us any other leader would be 20 points ahead.
    Quite true, any other leader beginning with C would have focused their attacks on HS2 and public transport and ignored all this Westminster village nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1466033275462467584

  • DougSeal said:


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    7m
    EXCLUSIVE: No 10 staff held ‘wine-time Fridays’ throughout pandemic with Boris Johnson regularly witnessing the gatherings.

    Sources say PM encouraged aides to "let off steam" despite indoor socialising being banned under lockdown rules.

    Called it.....
    He's done.

    It is over.

    By Monday?
    Nope. Not a chance. None. He’s going nowhere.
    You keep saying that but this is terminal and soon
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    edited January 2022
    So. Operation Save Big Dog has basically made clear that the Civil Service will be blamed. And their bosses sacked.
    And suddenly we have photos and diaries?
    As anyone with half a knowledge of human nature could have told you straightaway.

    PS. There is a rumour there is a massive story Sunday. It'll be video drink in hand won't it?
    If I were a Tory MP I'd be testing positive sharpish.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,738
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    You're gonna have to wait for the Mail to publish, for the actual video of Tooting-gate. Soz

    Do tell us when it comes out, please. With linky.
    The people at the Daily Mail think it is an amateur rocket enthusiast, FWIW, not a military jet

    It certainly looks like a rocket

    However the eye-witness contradicts them on size. She is adamant that the *thing* was enormous. There were planes in the sky for her to compare it with. She reckons the thing was ten times the size. That's quite an amateur rocket enthusiast

    Could be an optical illusion/Father Ted effect, natch

    Thank you!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    On Monday morning, Graham Brady mail sack is going to be huge....

    He doesn't work weekends?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,958
    "Operation Save Big Dog" seems absurd and not possible right up to the moment at which you read that *this is what the prime minister calls it* and then you think, "Well, jesus christ, it's obviously true".
    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1482074834872020998
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Bear in mind with Wine Time Fridays that there's also 6 other days of the week.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    7m
    EXCLUSIVE: No 10 staff held ‘wine-time Fridays’ throughout pandemic with Boris Johnson regularly witnessing the gatherings.

    Sources say PM encouraged aides to "let off steam" despite indoor socialising being banned under lockdown rules.

    Called it.....
    He's done.

    It is over.

    By Monday?
    Nope. Not a chance. None. He’s going nowhere.
    You keep saying that but this is terminal and soon
    He’s slipperier than a greased pig.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2022
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.

    This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
    Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
    But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?

    Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks
    Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs
    Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything

    I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
    Ok - yeh. But I'm mainly interested in the modelling. As Lilico has been saying of late, why were there not more models, or models with different inputs/terms of reference?
    Why doesn't Lilico come up with his own model instead of sniping?
    He has, a few times now.

    In September 2020 his robust model predicted that even if there was a second wave in England there was no chance of a second wave in London.

    More recently in October 2021 he confidently predicted that cases in Winter would be lower than they were in mid October due to his cast iron modelling of under 18 infection rates ( this prediction was on course for a bust even before Omicron swept in)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Bear in mind with Wine Time Fridays that there's also 6 other days of the week.

    They won't like Margarita Mondays or Whisky Wednesdays in the Red Wall.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    7m
    EXCLUSIVE: No 10 staff held ‘wine-time Fridays’ throughout pandemic with Boris Johnson regularly witnessing the gatherings.

    Sources say PM encouraged aides to "let off steam" despite indoor socialising being banned under lockdown rules.

    Called it.....
    He's done.

    It is over.

    By Monday?
    Nope. Not a chance. None. He’s going nowhere.
    You keep saying that but this is terminal and soon
    He’s slipperier than a greased pig.
    A greased pig in a giant frying pan maybe!
  • dixiedean said:

    So. Operation Save Big Dog has basically made clear that the Civil Service will be blamed. And their bosses sacked.
    And suddenly we have photos and diaries?
    As anyone with half a knowledge of human nature could have told you straightaway.

    PS. There is a rumour there is a massive story Sunday. It'll be video drink in hand won't it?
    If I were a Tory MP I'd be testing positive sharpish.

    I did say that someone will have a pissgate video...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    No he won't. Not possible.
  • We know why Big Dom wasn't sacked immediately now....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    They delivered a fridge too small for BoZo to hide in...

    Maybe it was a misdelivery for no. 11?

    Typical Hermes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,738
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    The other thing is the double trail. Means two separate engines some distance apart. As on a 777 for instance.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,464
    dixiedean said:

    So. Operation Save Big Dog has basically made clear that the Civil Service will be blamed. And their bosses sacked.
    And suddenly we have photos and diaries?
    As anyone with half a knowledge of human nature could have told you straightaway.

    PS. There is a rumour there is a massive story Sunday. It'll be video drink in hand won't it?
    If I were a Tory MP I'd be testing positive sharpish.

    Time to get the wisdom teeth done. Sunak’s invisible. Liz team have pushed her out in front the camera’s for a turn outspoofed the spoofers.
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    They delivered a fridge too small for BoZo to hide in...

    Maybe it was a misdelivery for no. 11?

    Typical Hermes.
    Am currently waiting on a bloody delivery from them...
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    7m
    EXCLUSIVE: No 10 staff held ‘wine-time Fridays’ throughout pandemic with Boris Johnson regularly witnessing the gatherings.

    Sources say PM encouraged aides to "let off steam" despite indoor socialising being banned under lockdown rules.

    Called it.....
    He's done.

    It is over.

    By Monday?
    Nope. Not a chance. None. He’s going nowhere.
    You keep saying that but this is terminal and soon
    He’s slipperier than a greased pig.
    "“It is just flipping unbelievable. He is a mixture of Harry Houdini and a greased piglet. He is barely human in his elusiveness. Nailing Boris is like trying to pin jelly to a wall."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    How's that operations biggy doggy hopey go'in for you'all?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Have to say Friday drinks fridge is pretty small beer. My work has a Friday drinks fridge a lot bigger than that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    By Monday frankly.

    How on earth can he now face Starmer on Wed?

    Maybe he will get long covid?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Boris is going nowhere.

    Just like his alter-ego Jezza Corbyn, he’ll cling on with no dignity.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,702
    Might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,677
    edited January 2022
    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    I think so. At the moment it has very much the feel of Dr Kelly's death about it, with the PM teetering on the abyss, but Tone survived as will Boris.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    Only if his MPs say so. If they can't make up their minds what to do, or determine that dithering until after the local elections is in their best interest, then he stays. I doubt whether most of them care about the collateral damage (hundreds of local councillors unseated, open warfare with the Scottish party, etc., etc.)

    Quite honestly, who knows what's coming next?
  • DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    It is not in his hands anymore
  • As someone about to rent an office in that London and hire staff, the first thing I will be looking for are spaces for the wine fridge and the chunder bucket.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    No he won't. Not possible.
    He is crisp, lightly buttered toast. Done. Finished.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited January 2022
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Thoughts and prayers with Rees-Mogg tonight. Fucking twat.

    Losing his seat on UNS in the latest poll.
    Not after the boundary changes which move some LD and Labour wards nearer Bath in his seat to Frome.

    After boundary changes Electoral Calculus predicts a majority for Rees Mogg even now of 11% in his slightly more rural seat of Keynsham and North East Somerset


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Keynsham and North East Somerset

    Currently it forecasts only a 6% majority for NE Somerset on present boundaries

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Somerset+North+East
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Alistair said:

    Have to say Friday drinks fridge is pretty small beer. My work has a Friday drinks fridge a lot bigger than that.

    Did your work also ban the rest of the country from doing anything like it?

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    By Monday frankly.

    How on earth can he now face Starmer on Wed?

    Maybe he will get long covid?
    He might survive if this is it. But nobody spunks their big story on a Saturday when n Sunday is just round the corner.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    Someone in the comments says this:

    "SWR, Bournemouth, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    I also saw this from Bournemouth today, thought it looked really odd flying straight up and loads of trails."


    And thus a rumour grows

    I'm extremely tempted to believe your explanation, a large commercial aircraft, flying straight at her, caught in a low sun, so a kind of optical illusion. The two trails are a major hint

    What gives me pause is that I have the original video, and I have enlarged it, and at 8 seconds in you very briefly glimpse the object much more clearly, and it really looks nothing like a passenger plane. It looks mostly like a rocket, or a wasp-shaped fighter jet

    We shall never know. I have just kicked off a mystery for the ages. My work today is done. Time for an evening walk around Primrose Hill
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,738

    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    It is not in his hands anymore
    It is. The Gray report goes through him.
  • Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    It is not in his hands anymore
    It is. The Gray report goes through him.
    It is in his mps hands
  • Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    Someone in the comments says this:

    "SWR, Bournemouth, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    I also saw this from Bournemouth today, thought it looked really odd flying straight up and loads of trails."


    And thus a rumour grows

    I'm extremely tempted to believe your explanation, a large commercial aircraft, flying straight at her, caught in a low sun, so a kind of optical illusion. The two trails are a major hint

    What gives me pause is that I have the original video, and I have enlarged it, and at 8 seconds in you very briefly glimpse the object much more clearly, and it really looks nothing like a passenger plane. It looks mostly like a rocket, or a wasp-shaped fighter jet

    We shall never know. I have just kicked off a mystery for the ages. My work today is done. Time for an evening walk around Primrose Hill
    If it was real, you would have seen it from Primrose Hill, no?
  • Scott_xP said:
    I think my folks have the same wine fridge. Don't buy their wine from Tesco though.

    I don't personally care at all about these Downing St parties, but I do totally understand why a lot of people are genuinely angry about them. I think there's also quite a bit of confected outrage out there, but that really doesn't matter when I'm clearly in such an ever shrinking minority of people who don't care.

    I can't see Boris surviving this. If he does survive long enough I'm pretty sure he'll lead the Tories out of government at the next election. But.. If he could come back from this and retain a working majority in the Commons, then he'd have to be called the best UK electioneer in living memory.

    I don't think I'd bet on Boris winning the next election at less than about 10/1 at the moment though. He's not that good. And Keir isn't that bad. I suppose he might have a great big Keirstone built yet..
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Gives a whole new meaning to drinking on the job! 😂
    Way back when, that is when yours truly was working directly on political campaigns, it was quite common to have cased of wine somewhere in the office.

    However, this was NOT for "drinks parties" or any other consumption by staff. Instead, it was for deployment at campaign fundraisers.

    Every once and a while there might be a six-pack of beer around, but generally any drinking of alcohol in the office was frowned upon, mainly because it might make a bad impression on volunteers, media and other visitors.

    NOT a good look and risky to boot, at least in OUR line of work. Pretty obviously one would think.
    Maybe it’s a New England Puritan thing but my (by U.K. standards very moderate) drinking habits have me labelled as a borderline alcoholic by my Connecticut in-laws.
    Very US.

    I have heard people describe the drinking of 4 Martinis as "frightening"
    4 proper sized martinis is a fair amount of drink
  • Polls published today have Labour leading the Tories by 10 points, 11 points and 14 points. A hattrick of double-figure leads.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1482093399465410570

    Sir Keir fans please explain.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Wonder how wine time is going just now?
    At least they'll be in peace from Big Dog safely kennelled.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    Chameleon said:

    Bear in mind with Wine Time Fridays that there's also 6 other days of the week.

    They won't like Margarita Mondays or Whisky Wednesdays in the Red Wall.
    We're the police acting as bouncers when all this was going on?
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    By Monday frankly.

    How on earth can he now face Starmer on Wed?

    Maybe he will get long covid?
    I suspect the possibility of a Monday resignation is not as unlikely as may be thought judging by the latest revelations and the rumours of a further bombshell Sunday press
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836
    geoffw said:

    James Forsyth points out that it is not just the Conservative MPs but also the local associations that can put pressure on the PM.

    There is also a device by which 65 associations can force a special conference to vote on the leader's future. The vote is non-binding but would make the position of any leader who lost it untenable. The threat of such a vote was one of the things that led to Theresa May resigning.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-tory-grassroots-are-putting-pressure-on-boris-johnson

    Important if true. The MPs might be willing to throw the councillors on the bonfire if they find it convenient to leave Johnson to twist in the wind until after the local elections; the associations, less so. A meaningful number of members and office holders in said associations will also be councillors, after all.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,958
    'Absolutely disgusted': grassroots UK Conservatives turning against PM Johnson http://reut.rs/3Fyy2Dg https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1482094009656954884/photo/1
  • Gary 🗣 "We get these Friday night matches, and we always seem to get a massive party."

    Carra 🗣 "Let's be straight this is not a party tonight, this is about work."

    https://twitter.com/footballdaily/status/1482073312197021696
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,958
    in retrospect, amazing that even Johnson could keep a straight face through this:

    “I have been repeatedly assured…that there was no party”
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1482094062735929352/photo/1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    They delivered a fridge too small for BoZo to hide in...

    Maybe it was a misdelivery for no. 11?

    Typical Hermes.
    Am currently waiting on a bloody delivery from them...
    Don’t make the mistake of thinking they provide a logistics service.

    It’s really a social service, designed to get you chatting to the other people in your street.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    This might back fire slightly. My graduate scheme alumni group think the staffer with the fridge is a hero - much nostalgia for our old, entry-level jobs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    It is not in his hands anymore
    It is. The Gray report goes through him.
    That report is now irrelevant.

    By time the Tory MPs return from the dragon fire meetings they are getting tomorrow with members and voters there will be no alternative. He is done.





  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    By Monday frankly.

    How on earth can he now face Starmer on Wed?

    Maybe he will get long covid?
    I suspect the possibility of a Monday resignation is not as unlikely as may be thought judging by the latest revelations and the rumours of a further bombshell Sunday press
    OTOH the man is totally shameless and no shortage of cabinet ministers have turned out to support him. So, we shall see.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Thoughts and prayers with Rees-Mogg tonight. Fucking twat.

    Losing his seat on UNS in the latest poll.
    Not after the boundary changes which move some LD and Labour wards nearer Bath in his seat to Frome.

    After boundary changes Electoral Calculus predicts a majority for Rees Mogg even now of 11% in his slightly more rural seat of Keynsham and North East Somerset


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Keynsham and North East Somerset

    Currently it forecasts only a 6% majority for NE Somerset on present boundaries

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Somerset+North+East
    He will be on the back benches very soon
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Taz said:

    Why are so many shrewd Political Punters on here, at this end of the week, still posting they think he will survive? The Smithsons, Eagles?

    I’m calling it. The moment the reports published the letters go in.

    What the report says, how damaging it is, doesn’t matter at all now, my tip to Sue play it safe warble on about Peppa Pig, no one will notice it doesn’t matter what you say, because report publication it’s purely the moment the Conservative Party claims it has enough to act.

    This is the kicker: They have already been given enough to act, by Boris himself this week, when he admitted he lied to Parliament, admitted he broke the law, admitted he was at a party the same hour his spokesman was telling the nation nobody could! After the report, MPs send their letters in with piece to camera saying ‘from this report it unfortunately looks like Boris repeatedly mislead the house, and I don’t want to do this, as you know I voted for him, but we can’t have that.’

    The report doesn’t matter now, they already have what they need. It matters only as symbolic cover for the action. The truth is, what drives the remaining letters and the comprehensive vonc is appreciating how this cocktail of anger and ridicule, of memes on distrust and betrayal that perhaps last for generations, is now damaging the whole party long term, not just Boris electoral prospects long term.

    I’ve called it. Only about ten more excruciating days of Boozy Bozo to go and we enter the interesting New World of post Boris Conservative Politics.

    And on that note, let’s party 🥳

    I think he’s gone after he drubbing they get in the May locals. The party won’t stomach the loss of many hard working councillors to pander to this clowns ego.
    They would probably have lost plenty by virtue of being in office 12 years, so while he is making things so much worse for them I'm not sure they Tory MPs have the stones to take action even then. Not if they think he will do a Dom and act like a child throwing a tantrum, rather than bow out gracefully.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    Someone in the comments says this:

    "SWR, Bournemouth, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    I also saw this from Bournemouth today, thought it looked really odd flying straight up and loads of trails."


    And thus a rumour grows

    I'm extremely tempted to believe your explanation, a large commercial aircraft, flying straight at her, caught in a low sun, so a kind of optical illusion. The two trails are a major hint

    What gives me pause is that I have the original video, and I have enlarged it, and at 8 seconds in you very briefly glimpse the object much more clearly, and it really looks nothing like a passenger plane. It looks mostly like a rocket, or a wasp-shaped fighter jet

    We shall never know. I have just kicked off a mystery for the ages. My work today is done. Time for an evening walk around Primrose Hill
    I get all my trusted reporting from the Mail Online comments.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    Someone in the comments says this:

    "SWR, Bournemouth, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    I also saw this from Bournemouth today, thought it looked really odd flying straight up and loads of trails."


    And thus a rumour grows

    I'm extremely tempted to believe your explanation, a large commercial aircraft, flying straight at her, caught in a low sun, so a kind of optical illusion. The two trails are a major hint

    What gives me pause is that I have the original video, and I have enlarged it, and at 8 seconds in you very briefly glimpse the object much more clearly, and it really looks nothing like a passenger plane. It looks mostly like a rocket, or a wasp-shaped fighter jet

    We shall never know. I have just kicked off a mystery for the ages. My work today is done. Time for an evening walk around Primrose Hill
    If it was real, you would have seen it from Primrose Hill, no?
    It was over Tooting, why would I see it in Camden? Also I would have to be looking out the window, in the right direction, at the exact same time as my pal
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849

    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    I think so. At the moment it has very much the feel of Dr Kelly's death about it, with the PM teetering on the abyss, but Tone survived as will Boris.
    I’m not sure the comparison stands up.

    The thing with this story is that we all - or many of us - feel involved, on account of our sacrifices
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    By Monday frankly.

    How on earth can he now face Starmer on Wed?

    Maybe he will get long covid?
    I suspect the possibility of a Monday resignation is not as unlikely as may be thought judging by the latest revelations and the rumours of a further bombshell Sunday press
    OTOH the man is totally shameless and no shortage of cabinet ministers have turned out to support him. So, we shall see.
    Of course. They are selected for stupidity and loyalty. Back to banchbench obscurity when Johnson goes.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,960
    Not so much Big Dog as the Wolf of Downing St.
  • Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    ‘kin hell
    EC says Lab 362 con 188 on those figures.
    JRM loses Somerset NE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    By Monday frankly.

    How on earth can he now face Starmer on Wed?

    Maybe he will get long covid?
    I suspect the possibility of a Monday resignation is not as unlikely as may be thought judging by the latest revelations and the rumours of a further bombshell Sunday press
    There is no way that Boris Johnson will be facing Starmer next Wednesday.

    It is done. Over. Gone.

    I guess it will be Raab as interim pending a leadership election.

    Unless Johnson claims he has covid and ducks for a week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Polls published today have Labour leading the Tories by 10 points, 11 points and 14 points. A hattrick of double-figure leads.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1482093399465410570

    Sir Keir fans please explain.

    At this point even a recovery will probably see them still down by 5-6. Starmer's strategy of building his own credibility and biding his time has been vindicated.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,738

    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    I don't see how anybody working in #10 at the time can survive.

    Its very fortunate that Dishy Rishi doesn't live in Downing Street.

    This has now gone thermo nuclear in political terms.

    There is no way I think that Johnson can be standing at the despatch box next Wed for PMQs.

    The Raab discussion earlier just got interesting.
    Of course Johnson will be there. He’ll brazen this out just like everything else.
    It is not in his hands anymore
    It is. The Gray report goes through him.
    That report is now irrelevant.

    By time the Tory MPs return from the dragon fire meetings they are getting tomorrow with members and voters there will be no alternative. He is done.





    I'm sceptical. Old Etonian arrogance carries a long way. But you may be right.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,840
    edited January 2022
    From Mirror link...

    They are a long-standing Downing Street tradition, including under previous administrations, to help staff wind down at the end of a busy week. But the event continued many Fridays even after restrictions were introduced to help curb the Covid surge.

    As I said previously, clearly rather than end of week drinks and down the boozer, instead with pubs closed, they just did it all in the office.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,960

    Scott_xP said:
    I think my folks have the same wine fridge. Don't buy their wine from Tesco though.

    I don't personally care at all about these Downing St parties, but I do totally understand why a lot of people are genuinely angry about them. I think there's also quite a bit of confected outrage out there, but that really doesn't matter when I'm clearly in such an ever shrinking minority of people who don't care.

    I can't see Boris surviving this. If he does survive long enough I'm pretty sure he'll lead the Tories out of government at the next election. But.. If he could come back from this and retain a working majority in the Commons, then he'd have to be called the best UK electioneer in living memory.

    I don't think I'd bet on Boris winning the next election at less than about 10/1 at the moment though. He's not that good. And Keir isn't that bad. I suppose he might have a great big Keirstone built yet..
    I’m in the same boat. I’m not particularly bothered by it, but I dislike the government for various other reasons so it’s enjoyable seeing it unfold.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    Someone in the comments says this:

    "SWR, Bournemouth, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    I also saw this from Bournemouth today, thought it looked really odd flying straight up and loads of trails."


    And thus a rumour grows

    I'm extremely tempted to believe your explanation, a large commercial aircraft, flying straight at her, caught in a low sun, so a kind of optical illusion. The two trails are a major hint

    What gives me pause is that I have the original video, and I have enlarged it, and at 8 seconds in you very briefly glimpse the object much more clearly, and it really looks nothing like a passenger plane. It looks mostly like a rocket, or a wasp-shaped fighter jet

    We shall never know. I have just kicked off a mystery for the ages. My work today is done. Time for an evening walk around Primrose Hill
    I get all my trusted reporting from the Mail Online comments.
    However there are some useful ones


    RocketSpottersSE1, London, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    We saw it too in SE1.... but then it turned and flew overhead and it looked like an Army plane. We thought it was a rocket too at first!


    Cahootscackle, Wimbledon, United Kingdom, 2 minutes ago

    I saw this from Wimbledon, it was 100% a plane


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577

    From Mirror link...

    They are a long-standing Downing Street tradition, including under previous administrations, to help staff wind down at the end of a busy week. But the event continued many Fridays even after restrictions were introduced to help curb the Covid surge.

    The fridge was delivered in Dec 2020...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    dixiedean said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+5)
    CON: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 13 - 14 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 09 Jan

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1482069385913286660

    That's only a 1.25% swing from 1997.
    Am I using Electoral Calculus correctly then? It shows Labour still 1 short of a majority on these figures.
    Difference is: Scotland MPs in 1997 = 56 Lab, 10 LD, 6 SNP. Scotland MPs today on this poll = 59 SNP
    Hard to see Ian Murray losing his seat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    Someone in the comments says this:

    "SWR, Bournemouth, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    I also saw this from Bournemouth today, thought it looked really odd flying straight up and loads of trails."


    And thus a rumour grows

    I'm extremely tempted to believe your explanation, a large commercial aircraft, flying straight at her, caught in a low sun, so a kind of optical illusion. The two trails are a major hint

    What gives me pause is that I have the original video, and I have enlarged it, and at 8 seconds in you very briefly glimpse the object much more clearly, and it really looks nothing like a passenger plane. It looks mostly like a rocket, or a wasp-shaped fighter jet

    We shall never know. I have just kicked off a mystery for the ages. My work today is done. Time for an evening walk around Primrose Hill
    You’d have to visit a lot of planets to find a less reliable source than the comments under a mail online article!

    Something taking off from south London won’t be visible from bournemouth; the planet does this curvy thing that makes that difficult.

    Also, there’s a high pressure temperature inversion, with a fair bit of low altitude haze that I’m seeing even here out by the sea; London must be a lot worse. So you’re going to get a lot of atmospheric distortion and shimmering - if the image appeared differently for just a few seconds, that could be it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    Jeez. You can still get Johnson gone in 2022 on BF for 1.55.

    Better than the bank.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited January 2022
    Foxy said:

    From Mirror link...

    They are a long-standing Downing Street tradition, including under previous administrations, to help staff wind down at the end of a busy week. But the event continued many Fridays even after restrictions were introduced to help curb the Covid surge.

    The fridge was delivered in Dec 2020...
    More stress = more partying and wine, as a dr you should know that! They probably ran out of space in their main work fridge.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,464
    edited January 2022

    DougSeal said:


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    7m
    EXCLUSIVE: No 10 staff held ‘wine-time Fridays’ throughout pandemic with Boris Johnson regularly witnessing the gatherings.

    Sources say PM encouraged aides to "let off steam" despite indoor socialising being banned under lockdown rules.

    Called it.....
    He's done.

    It is over.

    By Monday?
    Nope. Not a chance. None. He’s going nowhere.
    You keep saying that but this is terminal and soon
    Are they making you really cross too Big G?

    “oh he’ll survive” just seems to be tossed in too casually. I even accuse Eagles and Mike Smithson and RCS in this. I intend to challenge each of them, we need to hear now why they think he will survive. What does survive mean anyway? Do they mean The weekend? Until the The next general election? Still PM at the next Friday Wine session? Has anyone ever come back from so destroyed? What’s their reasoning? In Rishi there is a perfectly credible PM in waiting, the most trusted politician by the electorate.

    Is it fair now to ask such experienced Political Punters to paint a picture of what they are seeing?

    I’m happy to start saying I am watching something getting duffed up by an invisible assailant, a victim that hasn’t a clue what to expect next or when. The assailant is in complete control here, determined to complete its task, just calmly getting on with it, and nearly done. The victim actually has shown no means of fighting back against this. There is only one way this can end. Surely Nothing can come back from being so hollowed out of credibility - this is sheer anger from all the public, from all his own side and his own fans and praetorian guard.

    Like 🤷‍♀️
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Have to say Friday drinks fridge is pretty small beer. My work has a Friday drinks fridge a lot bigger than that.

    Did your work also ban the rest of the country from doing anything like it?
    That is certainly he other side of the coin.

    Basically i think once you've got to suitcase fulls of booze a parties just before a state funeral a wee mini fridge is barely tickling my outrage gland any more.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,840
    edited January 2022
    Foxy said:

    From Mirror link...

    They are a long-standing Downing Street tradition, including under previous administrations, to help staff wind down at the end of a busy week. But the event continued many Fridays even after restrictions were introduced to help curb the Covid surge.

    The fridge was delivered in Dec 2020...
    Not sure your point.....

    I am saying there was a drinking culture in the office pre covid, with pubs closed they carried on (encouraged by Boris), it became a bigger thing, where parties were regular, such they then needed a dedicated 30 bottle fridge for all the booze they were getting through.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Since we're all speculating about Boris going, and who will definitely be out, what about the figures who would still be in when he is replaced?

    Truss is popular with Members and I don't really get why she upsets some others, and as she apparently wants the top job herself she could probably be relied upon to serve on in a high profile role for any Boris replacement, if it is not her. Raab and Patel are presumably gone. Gove is useful to keep an eye on so probably moved again. Javid was in then out then in again under Boris, so might be safe if he jumps at the right time. Zahawi has improved his reputation in the last year so would probably be an asset. Many of the rest are non entities not worth keeping in place of allies of the new leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    Thanks to Cummings it is probably also over for the Tories for the next decade.

    Don't expect even Sunak to suddenly be able to turn it round. Boris may well be the last Conservative leader to win a general election majority for the next 10 to 15 years
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Con Meltdown.

    At this rate the Cons will be polling higher in Scotland than in England.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,925

    Leon said:
    Airplane contrail caught in the setting Sun.

    What else have you got?
    Combining two separate lines of thought, has the Sun’s protection of their Deputy Editor destroyed their reputation for being in touch with the national mood?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    When the sun is low, it shines sideways on the body of the plane, with the wings edge-on not throwing much of a reflection or casting much of a shadow

    Either there was a second witness or there wasn’t. Someone who phones it in for fifty quid isn’t an eye witness.
    Someone in the comments says this:

    "SWR, Bournemouth, United Kingdom, about a minute ago

    I also saw this from Bournemouth today, thought it looked really odd flying straight up and loads of trails."


    And thus a rumour grows

    I'm extremely tempted to believe your explanation, a large commercial aircraft, flying straight at her, caught in a low sun, so a kind of optical illusion. The two trails are a major hint

    What gives me pause is that I have the original video, and I have enlarged it, and at 8 seconds in you very briefly glimpse the object much more clearly, and it really looks nothing like a passenger plane. It looks mostly like a rocket, or a wasp-shaped fighter jet

    We shall never know. I have just kicked off a mystery for the ages. My work today is done. Time for an evening walk around Primrose Hill
    You’d have to visit a lot of planets to find a less reliable source than the comments under a mail online article!

    Something taking off from south London won’t be visible from bournemouth.

    Also, there’s a high pressure temperature inversion, with a fair bit of low altitude haze that I’m seeing even here out by the sea; London must be a lot worse. So you’re going to get a lot of atmospheric distortion and shimmering - if the image appeared differently for just a few seconds, that could be it.
    Some of the comments seem sensible, however.

    I am now going with fighter jet doing maneuvers in the low sun, causing optical illusion

    But then the lack of noise, and the alleged size

    FWIW my friend Gabriella, hearing of the "it's just a plane" comments, says this:

    Well they can suck my butt
    It was FUCKING MASSIVE
    and weird
    idk
    I was genuinely shocked?



    She sounds quite convincing that this was way out of the ordinary...... on the other hand she has been isolating from Covid for a week and is a bit emosh
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited January 2022
    Alistair said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Have to say Friday drinks fridge is pretty small beer. My work has a Friday drinks fridge a lot bigger than that.

    Did your work also ban the rest of the country from doing anything like it?
    That is certainly he other side of the coin.

    Basically i think once you've got to suitcase fulls of booze a parties just before a state funeral a wee mini fridge is barely tickling my outrage gland any more.
    Fair enough - personally, with the exception of partying while the Monarch mourned alone (which goes down as one of the most distasteful things I can think of in recent politics), I'm not that wound up by the actual parties, it's more the restrictions itself that wound me up.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,702
    Though I'd be very disappointed to see Boris's time as pm end because of all this, it does seem to stem from his larger-than-life Lord of Misrule persona. If only he had kept it in check.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,486
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    Proof we are not alone in the Universe the only story that can save Boris?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,925

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    :lol:
    image
    That’s not how I imagined HYUFD would look like.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    Thanks to Cummings it is probably also over for the Tories for the next decade.

    Don't expect even Sunak to suddenly be able to turn it round. Boris may well be the last Conservative leader to win a general election majority for the next 10 to 15 years
    So it's Cummings fault not Johnson's?

    It looks like you have conceded the game's up though - well done.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Has anyone done a poll entirely post the party on Phillip's grave? We could see some truly stunning numbers.
  • DougSeal said:


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    7m
    EXCLUSIVE: No 10 staff held ‘wine-time Fridays’ throughout pandemic with Boris Johnson regularly witnessing the gatherings.

    Sources say PM encouraged aides to "let off steam" despite indoor socialising being banned under lockdown rules.

    Called it.....
    He's done.

    It is over.

    By Monday?
    Nope. Not a chance. None. He’s going nowhere.
    You keep saying that but this is terminal and soon
    Are they making you really cross too Big G?

    “oh he’ll survive” just seems to be tossed in too casually. I even accuse Eagles and Mike Smithson and RCS in this. I intend to challenge each of them, we need to hear now why they think he will survive. What does survive mean anyway? Do they mean The weekend? Until the The next general election? Still PM at the next Friday Wine session? Has anyone ever come back from so destroyed? What’s their reasoning? In Rishi there is a perfectly credible PM in waiting, the most trusted politician by the electorate.

    Is it fair now to ask such experienced Political Punters to paint a picture of what they are seeing?

    I’m happy to start saying I am watching something getting duffed up by an invisible assailant, a victim that hasn’t a clue what to expect next or when. The assailant is in complete control here, determined to complete its task, just calmly getting on with it, and nearly done. The victim actually has shown no means of fighting back against this. There is only one way this can end. Surely Nothing can come back from being so hollowed out of credibility - this is sheer anger from all the public, from all his own side and his own fans and praetorian guard.

    Like 🤷‍♀️
    Not cross but just seems unrealistic in the circumstances for Boris to survive and I expect it to be over very soon
  • Based on what I read here on PB, seems that those who support - or in some cased used to support - Boris Johnson rely on these arguments:

    1. He's proven vote winner
    2. He delivered Brexit AND jabs.
    3. He is the leader of the Conservative Party

    And also seems to me that

    1. Is no longer operative, nor likely to ever be
    2. Indeed, but what has he done for you (or rather UK) recently?
    3. Until he ain't, which could well be the best thing FOR the Conservative Party.

    Note the interesting contrasts between the Sainted Margaret and the (once-) Blessed Bojo

    A. Took her over a decade to wear out HER welcome with voters AND her cabinet, caucus and party.
    B. She fell over matters of principle (poll tax & Europe) and also because her polling numbers were slumping well BEFORE her final hours as PM
    C. Boris will likely fall NOT because of any principle, but rather due to the rank irresponsibility of himself and virtually everyone in his cabal with exception of Wilfred, Romy and (maybe) Dilyn.

    Further note this stark contrast between Boris Johnson and his alleged role model:

    > When Winston Churchill was thrown out by a landslide in 1945, it was at the HEIGHT of his personal acclaim by the British people, indeed the world - one reason why he was able to make a comeback and return to No. 10 as Prime Minister.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited January 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    ‘kin hell
    EC says Lab 362 con 188 on those figures.
    JRM loses Somerset NE.
    Nope on the new boundaries Jacob still would hold his safer Keynsham and North East Somerset seat

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=27&LAB=41&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=2&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    It would be pretty amusing if winning majorities now seemed to be career damaging for Tory leaders.

    Cameron PM for 5 years without a majority, then a year after winning one one. May PM for 3 years, still managing for two after losing that majority. Boris PM 2.x years after winning a huge majority?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,340
    darkage said:

    Lying isn't the problem here.
    People complain that all politicians are liars, and lying is part of Johnsons style, somehow he turns it in to a positive.
    The problem is with the egregious lockdown breaches on the part of the people making the rules, whilst everyone else was following the rules and suffering for it. This is what will ultimately ruin Johnson, it isn't just business as usual.

    I beg to differ - both are a problem. Of course breaking the rules you make should be enough to bring you down.

    But the lying is a huge problem. Not the odd lie - the constant, mendacious lying that Boris does, treating people as utterly stupid and hoping that we can't see through the lies. It's the lying that most people I know object to the most, It's not either/or.
  • 'Well they can suck my butt
    It was FUCKING MASSIVE
    and weird
    idk
    I was genuinely shocked?'

    Yeah, but what did she think of the rocket, Sean?
  • HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Thoughts and prayers with Rees-Mogg tonight. Fucking twat.

    Losing his seat on UNS in the latest poll.
    Not after the boundary changes which move some LD and Labour wards nearer Bath in his seat to Frome.

    After boundary changes Electoral Calculus predicts a majority for Rees Mogg even now of 11% in his slightly more rural seat of Keynsham and North East Somerset


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Keynsham and North East Somerset

    Currently it forecasts only a 6% majority for NE Somerset on present boundaries

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Somerset+North+East
    He will be on the back benches very soon
    He won't. He'll take the Chiltern Hundreds.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Consistently lower than Thatcher's Tories in the months preceding her departure.

    Further behind Labour than May was at any point in her premiership.

    And further behind Labour than the margin by which Blair won in 1997.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    Thanks to Cummings it is probably also over for the Tories for the next decade.

    Don't expect even Sunak to suddenly be able to turn it round. Boris may well be the last Conservative leader to win a general election majority for the next 10 to 15 years
    No need to sound so pleased about it is there?

    And Cummings only managed this because Johnson was his puppet
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103

    'Well they can suck my butt
    It was FUCKING MASSIVE
    and weird
    idk
    I was genuinely shocked?'

    Yeah, but what did she think of the rocket, Sean?

    Genuine lol
This discussion has been closed.