Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Some terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com

1234568

Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a wacky thought which just occurred to me.
    Maybe the Paterson thing was actually because Owen threatened to reveal all this unless he was exonerated?
    Makes sense then. Makes no fucking sense otherwise.

    Interesting.
  • Regarding the Operation Big Dog team, wonder how many at the top tier are there to talk Boris into throwing in the towel?

    Could Linton Crosby see himself as being to Johnson, what Henry Kissinger was to Nixon?

    Kissinger wasn't being paid by Nixon to give advise and do polling.
    Crosby is being paid by Tory donors, not BoJo who famously don't have a pot to piss in.

    Nixon's donors did pay for his polling, burgling, etc. with difference that Tricky Dick had tight control over the finances AND was a respected world leader (even by the likes of me, who hated his guts back then) - neither of which apply in Johnson's case.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    20m
    THE GUARDIAN: Tory grassroots fury grows as No10 apologises to the Queen #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Worse than facing Starmer at PMQs will be next weeks audience.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a wacky thought which just occurred to me.
    Maybe the Paterson thing was actually because Owen threatened to reveal all this unless he was exonerated?
    Makes sense then. Makes no fucking sense otherwise.

    Well, it might, but only if Johnson is a really stupid, stuck up, self righteous and unselfaware prick who thinks he can do whatever the fuck he likes.

    Ah...it still makes sense, actually.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a wacky thought which just occurred to me.
    Maybe the Paterson thing was actually because Owen threatened to reveal all this unless he was exonerated?
    Makes sense then. Makes no fucking sense otherwise.

    Nah. The explanation that they just ceased on his case to gut the system just in case something came up later is simplest. They'd have done to let him take a fall, then try to gut the system.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    Because it's the Mail. The Daily Fail.......
    To be fair, it was sold to them by a very persuasive chancer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    Foxy said:


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    20m
    THE GUARDIAN: Tory grassroots fury grows as No10 apologises to the Queen #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Worse than facing Starmer at PMQs will be next weeks audience.
    If she wanted to epically troll him, she should make him meet Andrew instead...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Personally awaiting disclosure that PM & Co habitually begin their "working" days with whiskey for breakfast.

    It's the lowness of the stakes which is so breathtaking. Throwing it all away not for supermodel and cocaine parties but for a glass of warmish (till they got the fridge) chardonnay with Liz from accounts.
  • Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.
  • Farooq said:

    Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.

    We did try to warn you
    Yes but there was Corbyn who I was more worried about. I don’t fear New Labour re-emerging because they are the Ying to our Yang. A decent opposition is necessary to keep governments honest.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    edited January 2022

    Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.

    How about.

    4) Don't host and encourage piss-ups when you've made them illegal and folk can't see their dying parents?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IshmaelZ said:

    Personally awaiting disclosure that PM & Co habitually begin their "working" days with whiskey for breakfast.

    It's the lowness of the stakes which is so breathtaking. Throwing it all away not for supermodel and cocaine parties but for a glass of warmish (till they got the fridge) chardonnay with Liz from accounts.
    It's Accuri & Symonds all over again. If you're going to have embarrassing affairs that make you broke, you might as well hit up the supermodel directory.
  • dixiedean said:

    Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.

    How about.

    4) Don't host piss-ups when you've made them illegal and folk can't see their dying parents?
    I think that’s a pretty basic subset of (1)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited January 2022
    Anyone else remember Notts police fining 2 people on a socially distanced walk because they drove into Notts to a trail, from their home less than a mile away?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    Will Hutton
    @williamnhutton
    ·
    1h
    For a Tory PM to apologise to the Queen for misconduct in No 10 is a huge deal for every Tory constituency association in the land. Walk inside and the Queen’s portrait is always prominent. It defines Toryism. The shame is acute. Today he lost his grass roots.
  • Will Hutton
    @williamnhutton
    ·
    1h
    For a Tory PM to apologise to the Queen for misconduct in No 10 is a huge deal for every Tory constituency association in the land. Walk inside and the Queen’s portrait is always prominent. It defines Toryism. The shame is acute. Today he lost his grass roots.

    This
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    dixiedean said:

    Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.

    How about.

    4) Don't host piss-ups when you've made them illegal and folk can't see their dying parents?
    I think that’s a pretty basic subset of (1)
    Yes but. I'm setting a more realistic standard I expect even a Tory government to be able to achieve.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Chameleon said:

    Anyone else remember Notts police fining 2 people on a socially distanced walk because they drove into Notts to walk, from their home less than a mile away?

    It was Derbyshire on a freezing cold day, and two girls with a coffee - or a picnic as the cops deemed it.
  • Isn't this furore over a bit of fun for the hard working lads & lassies at No. 10, just more wokeism gone wild?

    Not really. Just sad at NOT seeing the w-word in a PB thread!
  • Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.

    We did try to warn you
    Yes but there was Corbyn who I was more worried about. I don’t fear New Labour re-emerging because they are the Ying to our Yang. A decent opposition is necessary to keep governments honest.
    Yes, but you voted for him to become leader in the first place
    Yes. Mea Culpa as I said some days ago. While I’m glad he beat Corbyn, the current shit show is appalling and I am ashamed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    Those figures were for November though.
    The lost festive period to omicron will take months of clawing back.
    Then we hit the tax and fuel price rises in April.
  • The former chairman and chief executive of supermarket chain Sainsbury's, Lord Sainsbury of Preston Candover, has died aged 94, the company has announced.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    On my twitter feed, in between shelf loads of jokes and news items about ILLEGAL parties during lockdown by No 10, I am now getting an advert to join the police to help fight crime.

    You could not make it up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports. Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

    Makes you curious as to why the rest of Britain chose not to then?
  • ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    20m
    THE GUARDIAN: Tory grassroots fury grows as No10 apologises to the Queen #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Worse than facing Starmer at PMQs will be next weeks audience.
    If she wanted to epically troll him, she should make him meet Andrew instead...
    Or she could make him sit alone while she gets p1ssed with her mates in the garden.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    On my twitter feed, in between shelf loads of jokes and news items about ILLEGAL parties during lockdown by No 10, I am now getting an advert to join the police to help fight crime.

    You could not make it up.

    To be fair, they pretty clearly need the help.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.

    We did try to warn you
    Yes but there was Corbyn who I was more worried about. I don’t fear New Labour re-emerging because they are the Ying to our Yang. A decent opposition is necessary to keep governments honest.
    Yes, but you voted for him to become leader in the first place
    Yes. Mea Culpa as I said some days ago. While I’m glad he beat Corbyn, the current shit show is appalling and I am ashamed.
    Perhaps you'll have an opportunity in the coming weeks to pick someone better.
    I suspect if there's a contest you'll be picking between someone better and someone else better.
    We will see. I’m sure the PB Labour and Lib Dem posters will have their view on whom we should choose, although I suspect you’d like us to choose JRM who might be sub-optimal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625

    Chameleon said:

    Anyone else remember Notts police fining 2 people on a socially distanced walk because they drove into Notts to walk, from their home less than a mile away?

    It was Derbyshire on a freezing cold day, and two girls with a coffee - or a picnic as the cops deemed it.
    Yep.

    The difference between the police attitude in say Derbys and the current Met is damning.

    Nothing to see here says Cressida Dick because it happened last year.

  • stjohn said:

    My views on Boris Johnson.

    He is unfit to be PM. He is a moral vacuum. His actions over Brexit were motivated and calculated to secure his ultimate goal of becoming PM. With a lot of duplicity, luck and media backing, (despite the fact that the media knew his true character), he achieved his aims and then won a comfortable majority in parliament at the subsequent GE. He has used that majority to exclude anyone who is not an admirer of his, or a Yes man/woman, from ministerial office. As a result we have a cabinet largely bereft of talent.

    His character was known before he became PM. For the "talking heads" to now say he is NOW "not fit for office" and needs to go because he has "lost public confidence" is a bit rich. He's never been fit for office but somehow our media and electoral system enabled him to achieve public confidence and gain an almost "unassailable" position.

    I blame the media as much as Boris for the mess we are in.

    It is not the media's job to ensure we get good leaders. It is the job of Tory (and Labour) MPs, both have failed spectacularly with Johnson and Corbyn.
  • As referenced by Dixie, what is mechanism for Conservative associations to have a role in potentially upending Fearless Leader?

    Believe one has already voted no confidence in Boris Johnson?

    I ask this based on the grounds that dissing the Queen is what American's used to call the Third Rail = political death.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Three things I expect of a Conservative PM:
    1) Basic competence.
    2) Conservative policies.
    3) Don’t disrespect Her Majesty the Queen.

    A straw poll of party members I know confirms that we are all furious now.

    We did try to warn you
    Yes but there was Corbyn who I was more worried about. I don’t fear New Labour re-emerging because they are the Ying to our Yang. A decent opposition is necessary to keep governments honest.
    Yes, but you voted for him to become leader in the first place
    Yes. Mea Culpa as I said some days ago. While I’m glad he beat Corbyn, the current shit show is appalling and I am ashamed.
    Perhaps you'll have an opportunity in the coming weeks to pick someone better.
    I suspect if there's a contest you'll be picking between someone better and someone else better.
    We will see. I’m sure the PB Labour and Lib Dem posters will have their view on whom we should choose, although I suspect you’d like us to choose JRM who might be sub-optimal.
    Strangely enough the JRM for leader has only come from the resident Boris loyalist.
    Though greeted with much joy at the prospect admittedly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll from Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 13 Jan
    Lab 41% +3
    Con 27% -3
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -2
    Reform 5% -2
    Changes since 14-15 Dec https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1482079893919838208

    Ok, where's Mohammed Saeed al-Hyufd got to? We need an explanation, now.
    Still not as low even on that poll as May's Tories in Spring 2019 or Major's Tories in 1995 who were both sub 25%
    Give up and surrender

    It is over for Boris and soon
    Thanks to Cummings it is probably also over for the Tories for the next decade.

    Don't expect even Sunak to suddenly be able to turn it round. Boris may well be the last Conservative leader to win a general election majority for the next 10 to 15 years
    And had it not been for Brexit Cummings would now be an obscure footnote. Yet another Tory PM destroyed by European policy.
    You could argue that had it not been for Cummings, Brexit might now be an obscure footnote.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

    You haven’t been paying attention have you? It doesn’t matter that NI businesses are benefiting from the protocol. It matters even less that NI businesses are happy about that. The only thing that matters is that the protocol threatens the purity of the One True Brexit. All competing considerations will be destroyed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    Chameleon said:

    On my twitter feed, in between shelf loads of jokes and news items about ILLEGAL parties during lockdown by No 10, I am now getting an advert to join the police to help fight crime.

    You could not make it up.

    To be fair, they pretty clearly need the help.
    Perhaps - and here is a tip - they could actually look into some crime. They might find some, erm, law breakers.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    MaxPB said:

    Fucking suitcased already and my mate has gone to get refreshments worthy of Michael Gove.

    Last bit definitely TMI.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    edited January 2022
    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    5m
    I know it's only a poll but the Greens + Labour are actually... 20 points ahead
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Odds on Russia mirroring their Georgian invasion by launching it on the opening day of a Chinese Olympics again?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    5m
    I know it's only a poll but the Greens + Labour are actually... 20 points ahead

    Any other leader meme has finally been killed.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Alistair said:

    Ok, someone needs to talk me through why 1.55 on Boris to be gone this year isn't an absolutely stonking value bet. What is the counter narrative?

    Say MPs pull the trigger now or after the local elections, what happens?

    - Circular firing circle where all the leadership contenders leak each other's lockdown activities (see @rottenborough's point)
    - Unpredictable outcome, the members are clearly as mad as a box of frogs and could easily pick someone even worse (JRM?)
    - Not clear anybody else can hold Boris's coalition together, if you think the polling is bad now wait until Farage comes back.
    - New PM shows up in mid-term, they might get a bounce but it's too early for a snap election. They're lumbered with the lingering virus issues, and there's more Brexit-related gunge to wade through that they won't have time to avoid.

    If I'm a Tory MP concerned about nothing except my own job (which is all of them since Boris kicked the other ones out of the party in 2019), I think I leave him there for now and hope the lockdown party thing blows over. If he's doing better in 2023 then cool, if not flip the switch then. If the new person is popular they can call an election right away, if not they have enough time to try something new but not enough time to get really unpopular.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625

    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    2h
    Ignorant nonsense from Cohen. FACT: Police do NOT 'scan' bags of those with a no10 pass, u cd walk a grenade or cocaine in if you wanted. Trying to shift blame to police who guard the building is stupid & offensive. Blame lies with the Shopping cart & some staff, NOT No10 guards/custodians
  • On my twitter feed, in between shelf loads of jokes and news items about ILLEGAL parties during lockdown by No 10, I am now getting an advert to join the police to help fight crime.

    You could not make it up.

    Not sure you really want to join the forces of order BUT if you do, then perhaps you can demonstrate your zeal, by raiding that notorious den of criminal infamy, No. 10 Downing Street.

    Worst disorderly house in whole City of Westminster - judging by the wallpaper alone.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    On my twitter feed, in between shelf loads of jokes and news items about ILLEGAL parties during lockdown by No 10, I am now getting an advert to join the police to help fight crime.

    You could not make it up.

    To be fair, they pretty clearly need the help.
    Perhaps - and here is a tip - they could actually look into some crime. They might find some, erm, law breakers.
    I wouldn't be giving out that gold for free. Tell No.10 that you're a close acquaintance of some Tory MPs and you could charge several grand a day to deliver that to the Met
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    Chameleon said:

    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    5m
    I know it's only a poll but the Greens + Labour are actually... 20 points ahead

    Any other leader meme has finally been killed.
    Thoughts and prays for Owen Jones and Len McCluskey.

  • Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    2h
    Ignorant nonsense from Cohen. FACT: Police do NOT 'scan' bags of those with a no10 pass, u cd walk a grenade or cocaine in if you wanted. Trying to shift blame to police who guard the building is stupid & offensive. Blame lies with the Shopping cart & some staff, NOT No10 guards/custodians

    Blimey, not just random capitalisation but the use of "fact" too. I am not sure anyone has ever lost an argument on the internet when they have taken those measures.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    Those figures were for November though.
    The lost festive period to omicron will take months of clawing back.
    Then we hit the tax and fuel price rises in April.
    Don’t forget the MP’s pay rise.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    stjohn said:

    I wonder if the best strategy for a wannabe PM is simply to be unflinchingly loyal, combined with hard work, ability, success in your ministerial office and patience? So many wannabes seem to trip themselves up by their poorly concealed ambition and by being seen to be "on manoeuvres"

    Heseltine's naked ambition; Portillo and the phone lines; Gove and his admission that he enjoys the Machiavellian plotting in "Game of Thrones"; Liz's with Fizz parties.

    What about BJ's supposed role model, WSC?

    Who in May 1940 actually closed the Norway Debate on behalf of the (then) government. And marched though the division lobby (along with Brendan Bracken) in support of Chamberlain.

    EDIT - Perhaps more relevant examples are Harold Macmillan and John Major. Would seem that Sunak is doing (modified) version of Mac, while Truss is taking a leaf from JM''s playbook.
    SSI. I also have a view on how failed PM wannabes should behave, They should also stay loyally on the back benches (or seek quick re-election by a by-election, if required) as their time may yet come around sooner than they think. in recent years this could apply to David Miliband, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, George Osborne, maybe others?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    As referenced by Dixie, what is mechanism for Conservative associations to have a role in potentially upending Fearless Leader?

    Believe one has already voted no confidence in Boris Johnson?

    I ask this based on the grounds that dissing the Queen is what American's used to call the Third Rail = political death.

    IANAE.
    65 (ie 10%) of associations is enough to call a special convention for a motion of No Confidence.
    The leader wouldn't have to quit if lost. But the mere threat of one played a role in May quitting.
    Boris is more shameless however...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    @ydoethur ought to enjoy the latest example of politicians legislating what should be taught in schools…

    https://twitter.com/ProfMMurray/status/1482001933628067840
    Is this real? Are we actually living in a TL where the legislature of Virginia is proposing to reform education by teaching its students that the Lincoln-Douglas debates featured Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.
    That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

    They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

    That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.
  • dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports. Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

    Makes you curious as to why the rest of Britain chose not to then?
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports. Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

    Makes you curious as to why the rest of Britain chose not to then?
    Yes, prior to Brexit the whole of the UK shared 'the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets'. Now we're supposed to celebrate that that luxury is now reserved for one small enclave. Bonza...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.
    That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

    They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

    That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.
    But they are myopic fools. Of course

    Northern Ireland booming within the Brexit framework CEMENTS its place in the Union. Why would you jeopardise a thriving and peaceful Ulster economy for some horribly risky, horribly controversial reunification which might easily return the island to awful violence?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    2h
    Ignorant nonsense from Cohen. FACT: Police do NOT 'scan' bags of those with a no10 pass, u cd walk a grenade or cocaine in if you wanted. Trying to shift blame to police who guard the building is stupid & offensive. Blame lies with the Shopping cart & some staff, NOT No10 guards/custodians

    Wait.
    They don't scan you if you have a pass.
    Why in holy hell not???
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:
    From the video it could easily be a plane flying across, obliquely.

    If you are the mentioned-in-passing second witness, that’s dodgy reporting!
    lol. The Daily Mail doing dodgy reporting??? Never!

    The way the chemtrail curves does suggest a plane, but then the absence of wings is odd, but that can be explained by the distance and the low sunlight, and maybe pollution haze


    FFS IT'S A PLANE WHY IS THE MAIL PRINTING THIS SENSATIONALIST CRAP
    Because it's the Mail. The Daily Fail.......
    To be fair, it was sold to them by a very persuasive chancer.
    unbelievable
  • stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    I wonder if the best strategy for a wannabe PM is simply to be unflinchingly loyal, combined with hard work, ability, success in your ministerial office and patience? So many wannabes seem to trip themselves up by their poorly concealed ambition and by being seen to be "on manoeuvres"

    Heseltine's naked ambition; Portillo and the phone lines; Gove and his admission that he enjoys the Machiavellian plotting in "Game of Thrones"; Liz's with Fizz parties.

    What about BJ's supposed role model, WSC?

    Who in May 1940 actually closed the Norway Debate on behalf of the (then) government. And marched though the division lobby (along with Brendan Bracken) in support of Chamberlain.

    EDIT - Perhaps more relevant examples are Harold Macmillan and John Major. Would seem that Sunak is doing (modified) version of Mac, while Truss is taking a leaf from JM''s playbook.
    SSI. I also have a view on how failed PM wannabes should behave, They should also stay loyally on the back benches (or seek quick re-election by a by-election, if required) as their time may yet come around sooner than they think. in recent years this could apply to David Miliband, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, George Osborne, maybe others?
    To be fair Ed Balls did stay as long as he could. He did not resign but was turfed out by the electors of Morely and Outwood in favour of Andrea Jenkyns in 2015. I actually think that was a considerable loss to Parliament.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.
    That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

    They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

    That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.
    But they are myopic fools. Of course

    Northern Ireland booming within the Brexit framework CEMENTS its place in the Union. Why would you jeopardise a thriving and peaceful Ulster economy for some horribly risky, horribly controversial reunification which might easily return the island to awful violence?

    But it is booming precisely because it is outside the Brexit framework...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    The thing about accepting that it’s OK for national leaders to lie…

    https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1482051797141368833
    This is important: The purpose of a lot of Russian disinformation/lies is NOT to fool anyone but to act with impunity in violating the rules without purporting to change the rules. Under international law, wars of aggression are illegal. If one means to launch one...
    ...one has to either (a) confront a problem under international rules and norms (b) or simply lie about what happened. Putin's innovation is that he has realized that it matters not at all if the lie is credible or even plausible. As long as you say it, it works.
  • dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.
    That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

    They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

    That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.
    But they are myopic fools. Of course

    Northern Ireland booming within the Brexit framework CEMENTS its place in the Union. Why would you jeopardise a thriving and peaceful Ulster economy for some horribly risky, horribly controversial reunification which might easily return the island to awful violence?

    But it is booming precisely because it is outside the Brexit framework...
    Leon makes the perfect case for Theresa's Deal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.
    That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

    They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

    That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.
    But they are myopic fools. Of course

    Northern Ireland booming within the Brexit framework CEMENTS its place in the Union. Why would you jeopardise a thriving and peaceful Ulster economy for some horribly risky, horribly controversial reunification which might easily return the island to awful violence?

    But it is booming precisely because it is outside the Brexit framework...
    Leon makes the perfect case for Theresa's Deal.
    Or indeed for staying in in the first place.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    stjohn said:

    My views on Boris Johnson.

    He is unfit to be PM. He is a moral vacuum. His actions over Brexit were motivated and calculated to secure his ultimate goal of becoming PM. With a lot of duplicity, luck and media backing, (despite the fact that the media knew his true character), he achieved his aims and then won a comfortable majority in parliament at the subsequent GE. He has used that majority to exclude anyone who is not an admirer of his, or a Yes man/woman, from ministerial office. As a result we have a cabinet largely bereft of talent.

    His character was known before he became PM. For the "talking heads" to now say he is NOW "not fit for office" and needs to go because he has "lost public confidence" is a bit rich. He's never been fit for office but somehow our media and electoral system enabled him to achieve public confidence and gain an almost "unassailable" position.

    I blame the media as much as Boris for the mess we are in.

    It is not the media's job to ensure we get good leaders. It is the job of Tory (and Labour) MPs, both have failed spectacularly with Johnson and Corbyn.
    I agree that the MPs should choose better leaders. But as you imply, recently they haven't.

    The rules, dynamics and vested interests that influence leadership elections, (which are not aligned with identifying the most talented candidates, nor candidates that the public generally would prefer), have resulted in terrible, recent electoral choices - which I feel have have been significantly influenced, in some cases, by the media.

    I don't hold the media culpable over Corbyn. But I do over Johnson.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    "Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor)"

    Interesting. Have you heard this on the grapevine? Seems unlikely to me.
  • dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports. Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

    Makes you curious as to why the rest of Britain chose not to then?
    Well, not all of the rest of Britain..
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    By pure coincidence, I was getting mildly suitcased (hand luggaged?) in Doctors this evening.
  • stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    I wonder if the best strategy for a wannabe PM is simply to be unflinchingly loyal, combined with hard work, ability, success in your ministerial office and patience? So many wannabes seem to trip themselves up by their poorly concealed ambition and by being seen to be "on manoeuvres"

    Heseltine's naked ambition; Portillo and the phone lines; Gove and his admission that he enjoys the Machiavellian plotting in "Game of Thrones"; Liz's with Fizz parties.

    What about BJ's supposed role model, WSC?

    Who in May 1940 actually closed the Norway Debate on behalf of the (then) government. And marched though the division lobby (along with Brendan Bracken) in support of Chamberlain.

    EDIT - Perhaps more relevant examples are Harold Macmillan and John Major. Would seem that Sunak is doing (modified) version of Mac, while Truss is taking a leaf from JM''s playbook.
    SSI. I also have a view on how failed PM wannabes should behave, They should also stay loyally on the back benches (or seek quick re-election by a by-election, if required) as their time may yet come around sooner than they think. in recent years this could apply to David Miliband, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, George Osborne, maybe others?
    Am doubtful there IS a way back for most, or rather almost all failed PM wannabes. Very hard even for former PMs who get turfed out. Baldwin did it, and Wilson too; but neither had lost the leadership of their party.

    Churchill is, I think, sui generis in this as in other ways.

    Too early to tell re: Burnham? Could be that, in the 3rd millennium, being OUT of Parliament might be a better strategy than being in? Of course, to be Labour leader let alone Prime Minister he'd need to get into the House of Commons. Heck, in theory he could even do that AFTER the fact, though of course THAT would be a feat in itself.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,960
    UK GDP back to pre pandemic levels. A great economic success story. All hail future PM Rishi.

    France got there several months earlier:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/france-s-economy-is-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-growing

    And as for Germany…
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.
    That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

    They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

    That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.
    But they are myopic fools. Of course

    Northern Ireland booming within the Brexit framework CEMENTS its place in the Union. Why would you jeopardise a thriving and peaceful Ulster economy for some horribly risky, horribly controversial reunification which might easily return the island to awful violence?
    As might collapsing the protocol and imposing a hard border with the Republic.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,017
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    It shouldn't be too much to ask to find a leader with some charisma who will actually implement Conservative policies, rather than - Brexit aside - governing from the soft left.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    edited January 2022
    TimS said:

    UK GDP back to pre pandemic levels. A great economic success story. All hail future PM Rishi.

    France got there several months earlier:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/france-s-economy-is-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-growing

    And as for Germany…

    Germany hasn't managed it yet


    "The US, France, Denmark and Sweden are among the other rich countries to have recovered all the lost ground during the pandemic while Germany, Italy and Spain have yet to pass the pandemic milestone"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/14/uk-economy-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-in-november
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Eabhal said:

    By pure coincidence, I was getting mildly suitcased (hand luggaged?) in Doctors this evening.

    Also saw Kingsman, which wasn't as bad as the reviews suggested. Perfectly ok popcorn film.

    Classic racist trope of Scot baddie, however.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,017
    edited January 2022

    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    I wonder if the best strategy for a wannabe PM is simply to be unflinchingly loyal, combined with hard work, ability, success in your ministerial office and patience? So many wannabes seem to trip themselves up by their poorly concealed ambition and by being seen to be "on manoeuvres"

    Heseltine's naked ambition; Portillo and the phone lines; Gove and his admission that he enjoys the Machiavellian plotting in "Game of Thrones"; Liz's with Fizz parties.

    What about BJ's supposed role model, WSC?

    Who in May 1940 actually closed the Norway Debate on behalf of the (then) government. And marched though the division lobby (along with Brendan Bracken) in support of Chamberlain.

    EDIT - Perhaps more relevant examples are Harold Macmillan and John Major. Would seem that Sunak is doing (modified) version of Mac, while Truss is taking a leaf from JM''s playbook.
    SSI. I also have a view on how failed PM wannabes should behave, They should also stay loyally on the back benches (or seek quick re-election by a by-election, if required) as their time may yet come around sooner than they think. in recent years this could apply to David Miliband, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, George Osborne, maybe others?
    To be fair Ed Balls did stay as long as he could. He did not resign but was turfed out by the electors of Morely and Outwood in favour of Andrea Jenkyns in 2015. I actually think that was a considerable loss to Parliament.
    Not necessarily to the country, though. One of my memories from when I worked in government is hearing a very distinguished economist coming out of a meeting with him shaking his head and muttering to himself, "Ed Balls is an absolutely terrible economist". And he was by no means the only person I heard saying something similar.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports. Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.

    Makes you curious as to why the rest of Britain chose not to then?
    Well, not all of the rest of Britain..
    Well indeed.
    And far from all of England too.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Possible repurcussion - huge pressure on Sturgeon to go for the referendum asap. "Lightweight" comments, and you'll never get a better opportunity as the Tories collapse and UK politics are highly fluid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited January 2022
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    It shouldn't be too much to ask to find a leader with some charisma who will actually implement Conservative policies, rather than - Brexit aside - governing from the soft left.
    The Redwall will not vote for more austerity either.

    The Cameron Remain seats from 2015 now Labour or LD will not vote for anything but a softer Brexit which also loses the Redwall and sees Leavers go RefUK.

    I see no path to a Tory majority even with Sunak, unless on a populist low tax, high spend, keep our current Brexit deal and no more restrictions on the vaccinated ticket which might scrape home a la Major 1992 but even then unlikely
  • Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    Without endorsing your analysis re: Labour and Starmer, the precedents of Eden> Macmillan and Thatcher > Major seems to bolster view that it's not (yet) game over for the Tories.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Eabhal said:

    By pure coincidence, I was getting mildly suitcased (hand luggaged?) in Doctors this evening.

    This is great. I love new euphemisms. Is a swift half a quick carrier bag? Go on. But I'm not having more than a backpack, mind.
    All this and Big Dog too.
    Been a good day.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    All the more reason for them to dump Johnson and get someone in their who won't waste it all.
    And here's another dog that didn't bark

    "Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries – survey

    "Top concern is labour shortages as 28% of manufacturers say trade with EU has increased"


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/northern-ireland-manufacturers-say-brexit-protocol-least-of-worries-survey

    As I have long predicted on here, Northern Ireland is going to boom post-Brexit, as it is in the ultimate sweet spot: inside both the UK and EU Single Markets (and Ulsterfolk get Freedom of Movement AND UK passports). Talk of the death of the Union is wildly premature.
    That was never the problem. As far as the DUP are concerned this is the problem they were trying to avoid. They don't want an NI doing more trade with the EU and the Republic, because they see that as a threat to its place in the UK.

    They wanted a border on the island of Ireland to create division and make reunification look impossible.

    That's why the better NI's economy does with the protocol the stronger the imperative for Unionists to blow the whole thing up becomes.
    But they are myopic fools. Of course

    Northern Ireland booming within the Brexit framework CEMENTS its place in the Union. Why would you jeopardise a thriving and peaceful Ulster economy for some horribly risky, horribly controversial reunification which might easily return the island to awful violence?
    A strong NI economy would mean the NHS there wouldn't be reliant on subsidy from London. It would necessarily be an economy that was integrating with Dublin and the Republic.

    It would point to political unity making common sense and in mutual interest.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    Have they really blown it though? I mean, can anyone think of a general election that was ever lost by trivial bullshit like this, even in some indirect "loss of trust" kind of way?

    Maybe I'm missing the depth of anger on the ground and something to do with The Queen but these things happen in mid-term, I don't see why they can't just take the local election L and carry on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    Without endorsing your analysis re: Labour and Starmer, the precedents of Eden> Macmillan and Thatcher > Major seems to bolster view that it's not (yet) game over for the Tories.
    Eden to Macmillan was only 6 years into a Tory government, Major scraped home in 1992 after a major policy change from Thatcher on the poll tax. There would be no major change from Boris policy wise from any alternative.

    By 1997 Major was trounced by New Labour anyway
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,520
    dixiedean said:


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    2h
    Ignorant nonsense from Cohen. FACT: Police do NOT 'scan' bags of those with a no10 pass, u cd walk a grenade or cocaine in if you wanted. Trying to shift blame to police who guard the building is stupid & offensive. Blame lies with the Shopping cart & some staff, NOT No10 guards/custodians

    Wait.
    They don't scan you if you have a pass.
    Why in holy hell not???
    The theory is that anyone who is elected or selected by someone elected should be trusted, as otherwise you are undermining the dignity of Parliament.

    Oh, stop laughing at the back.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    Without endorsing your analysis re: Labour and Starmer, the precedents of Eden> Macmillan and Thatcher > Major seems to bolster view that it's not (yet) game over for the Tories.
    However. This would be their fourth PM in six years. At some stage folk will surely twig it isn't the leader who is the problem.
    Surely?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,960
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    UK GDP back to pre pandemic levels. A great economic success story. All hail future PM Rishi.

    France got there several months earlier:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/france-s-economy-is-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-growing

    And as for Germany…

    Germany hasn't managed it yet


    "The US, France, Denmark and Sweden are among the other rich countries to have recovered all the lost ground during the pandemic while Germany, Italy and Spain have yet to pass the pandemic milestone"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/14/uk-economy-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-in-november
    Well you have me there. I’m genuinely surprised given how much better than almost everyone else they did in 2020. 2021 seems to have been a very bad year for Germany.

    Perhaps the relative performance of France vs Germany tells us all something about our assumptions about national economies.

    I’m not surprised about Denmark. A smart country all round.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,017
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    It shouldn't be too much to ask to find a leader with some charisma who will actually implement Conservative policies, rather than - Brexit aside - governing from the soft left.
    The Redwall will not vote for more austerity either.

    The Cameron Remain seats from 2015 now Labour or LD will not vote for anything but a softer Brexit which also loses the Redwall and sees Leavers go RefUK.

    I see no path to a Tory majority even with Sunak, unless on a populist low tax, high spend, keep our current Brexit deal and no more restrictions on the vaccinated ticket which might scrape home a la Major 1992 but even then unlikely
    Major won by 8 points - hardly scraping home. The same performance by the Conservatives on UNS would give a substantial majority, especially if they could squeeze the Brexit party vote from 2019.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    dixiedean said:


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    2h
    Ignorant nonsense from Cohen. FACT: Police do NOT 'scan' bags of those with a no10 pass, u cd walk a grenade or cocaine in if you wanted. Trying to shift blame to police who guard the building is stupid & offensive. Blame lies with the Shopping cart & some staff, NOT No10 guards/custodians

    Wait.
    They don't scan you if you have a pass.
    Why in holy hell not???
    The theory is that anyone who is elected or selected by someone elected should be trusted, as otherwise you are undermining the dignity of Parliament.

    Oh, stop laughing at the back.

    I am genuinely shocked and surprised to learn that.
    Thanks for the insider info.
    Seems barmy.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    I wonder if the best strategy for a wannabe PM is simply to be unflinchingly loyal, combined with hard work, ability, success in your ministerial office and patience? So many wannabes seem to trip themselves up by their poorly concealed ambition and by being seen to be "on manoeuvres"

    Heseltine's naked ambition; Portillo and the phone lines; Gove and his admission that he enjoys the Machiavellian plotting in "Game of Thrones"; Liz's with Fizz parties.

    What about BJ's supposed role model, WSC?

    Who in May 1940 actually closed the Norway Debate on behalf of the (then) government. And marched though the division lobby (along with Brendan Bracken) in support of Chamberlain.

    EDIT - Perhaps more relevant examples are Harold Macmillan and John Major. Would seem that Sunak is doing (modified) version of Mac, while Truss is taking a leaf from JM''s playbook.
    SSI. I also have a view on how failed PM wannabes should behave, They should also stay loyally on the back benches (or seek quick re-election by a by-election, if required) as their time may yet come around sooner than they think. in recent years this could apply to David Miliband, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, George Osborne, maybe others?
    Am doubtful there IS a way back for most, or rather almost all failed PM wannabes. Very hard even for former PMs who get turfed out. Baldwin did it, and Wilson too; but neither had lost the leadership of their party.

    Churchill is, I think, sui generis in this as in other ways.

    Too early to tell re: Burnham? Could be that, in the 3rd millennium, being OUT of Parliament might be a better strategy than being in? Of course, to be Labour leader let alone Prime Minister he'd need to get into the House of Commons. Heck, in theory he could even do that AFTER the fact, though of course THAT would be a feat in itself.
    I think if David Miliband or George Osborne had stayed in parliament, and loyally supported the leader(s) of their party following their departure, (Ed Miliband/Corbyn, or May/Boris,) and had they competently held any cabinet position that may have also come their way, they would each have each been in pole position to succeed to the leadership of their party, whenever a leadership vacancy arose.

    By not being in parliament, neither had a path to power.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited January 2022
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    It shouldn't be too much to ask to find a leader with some charisma who will actually implement Conservative policies, rather than - Brexit aside - governing from the soft left.
    The Redwall will not vote for more austerity either.

    The Cameron Remain seats from 2015 now Labour or LD will not vote for anything but a softer Brexit which also loses the Redwall and sees Leavers go RefUK.

    I see no path to a Tory majority even with Sunak, unless on a populist low tax, high spend, keep our current Brexit deal and no more restrictions on the vaccinated ticket which might scrape home a la Major 1992 but even then unlikely
    Major won by 8 points - hardly scraping home. The same performance by the Conservatives on UNS would give a substantial majority, especially if they could squeeze the Brexit party vote from 2019.
    The only hypothetical poll we have with the Tories under Sunak has them on 34%, not the 42% Major got.

    Major also had all middle class fiscal Conservatives behind him. Some middle class fiscal Conservatives are now voting Starmer Labour and LD and will not go back to Tories the absent a softer Brexit which also loses the Tories the redwall and Leavers, many of the latter backed Major in 1992 but went Referendum Party and UKIP in 1997 and would go RefUK if a softer Brexit

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    UK GDP back to pre pandemic levels. A great economic success story. All hail future PM Rishi.

    France got there several months earlier:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/france-s-economy-is-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-growing

    And as for Germany…

    Germany hasn't managed it yet


    "The US, France, Denmark and Sweden are among the other rich countries to have recovered all the lost ground during the pandemic while Germany, Italy and Spain have yet to pass the pandemic milestone"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/14/uk-economy-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-in-november
    Well you have me there. I’m genuinely surprised given how much better than almost everyone else they did in 2020. 2021 seems to have been a very bad year for Germany.

    Perhaps the relative performance of France vs Germany tells us all something about our assumptions about national economies.

    I’m not surprised about Denmark. A smart country all round.
    It's because they are so much more reliant on manufacturing and allied exports, for a start. And China slowing is really not good for them

    Plus they have quite a few major restrictions, up to full lockdowns in certain regions, and still Omicron surges

    Result:


    "The risk of recession is looming for #Germany after Europe's biggest economy shrank at the end of 2021 and as it faces a bumpy start to this year, with the rapid spread of #Omicron variant."


    https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1482117824239730690?s=20
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    Without endorsing your analysis re: Labour and Starmer, the precedents of Eden> Macmillan and Thatcher > Major seems to bolster view that it's not (yet) game over for the Tories.
    However. This would be their fourth PM in six years. At some stage folk will surely twig it isn't the leader who is the problem.
    Surely?
    It used to be the case only as late as ten years ago that, if you changed jobs in the City every 3 years it was seen as a negative. Now it’s seen as a negative if you don’t change that frequently.

    I suspect the 4 leaders in 6 years won’t matter for much.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,625
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    It might be a mistake to underestimate Starmer. His father was a toolmaker, his mother a nurse, struck down by illness. He rose, via the 11 plus to be DPP, knight of the realm, MP and leader of the Opposition.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    UK GDP back to pre pandemic levels. A great economic success story. All hail future PM Rishi.

    France got there several months earlier:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/france-s-economy-is-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-growing

    And as for Germany…

    Germany hasn't managed it yet


    "The US, France, Denmark and Sweden are among the other rich countries to have recovered all the lost ground during the pandemic while Germany, Italy and Spain have yet to pass the pandemic milestone"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/14/uk-economy-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-in-november
    Well you have me there. I’m genuinely surprised given how much better than almost everyone else they did in 2020. 2021 seems to have been a very bad year for Germany.

    Perhaps the relative performance of France vs Germany tells us all something about our assumptions about national economies.

    I’m not surprised about Denmark. A smart country all round.
    Bear in mind that Germany is a market heavily dependent on exports for GDP growth. Consumer consumption is quite low as a percentage. So, considering world markets have been impacted so much in terms of logistics etc, maybe not so much a surprise.

    Having said that, the FT had an article saying Chinese exports had risen 30% during the pandemic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    Have they really blown it though? I mean, can anyone think of a general election that was ever lost by trivial bullshit like this, even in some indirect "loss of trust" kind of way?

    Maybe I'm missing the depth of anger on the ground and something to do with The Queen but these things happen in mid-term, I don't see why they can't just take the local election L and carry on.
    You are missing a depth of anger. It is palpable. But you are nonetheless right that it is fairly trivial bullshit.

    This is not Major's ERM debacle when they were revealed as economically beyond clueless, wedded to a calamitous policy, as they tried to raise interest rates to 15%. That WAS serious and it took them 15 years to regain the lost trust

    This is more moral and emotional. It may therefore be transient. What if it emerges a few Labour figures have had parties of their own? We shall see

    And now, to bed, perchance to drink
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    The relative success of the UK economy in bouncing back so swiftly from such an incredible slump in GDP is surely a reason to plump for Sunak? As the Boris replacement?

    He actually has something he can point to and say: Look, I did that

    None of the others do

    He may be 2 foot 6 and a trillionaire but he is possibly the Tories' best bet. And his ethnicity makes him somewhat harder for the Left to attack (that should not be the case, but it is)

    Issue is that ~70% of voters will see the Sunak tax on their payslip every month from April.
    I still reckon he's their best option. If they want rid of the Bozza. Sunak seems competent and he has done stuff

    He's a teetotal workaholic with a regular and happy family life (albeit super-rich). Right now that will seem really quite appealing to a lot of angry Tory voters

    And he's more articulate than Starmer

    I like Boris, still, I think he is a deeply flawed character yet he had great potential; but I accept this is terminal, he's fucked it all up by a combination of his complacency, arrogance and maybe some Long Covid mental fogging. Plus being a knackered new dad at too old an age

    Anyway. The Tories should bite the nasty bullet, briskly dump him, and get a new leader. And Sunak is the optimum choice, of the contenders I can see
    Agree with ditching Johnson, best case he loses next election.

    I feel that Sunak's who they will go for, I've just been pretty unimpressed with his paint by numbers politics so far. From a betting perspective Halfon@1/100, Barclay at 1/66 (likely to run initially then become Sunak's chancellor), and Harper at 1/66 all seem like value to me.
    Sunak at least pays lip service to a smaller state and lower taxes, and might even one day aim for that, our enormous debt permitting

    Tories should not despair. Cummings' analysis of Starmer is correct. Starmer is a dead player. An inert public sector mannequin. Labour are riding high because the Tories have self-destructed, not from any genius politicking of their own

    Labour have zero interesting policies and still no way of solving their Scottish problem. And the boundary review will aid the Tories even further. If the Tories can cure the Boris migraine they can still win another majority
    Without endorsing your analysis re: Labour and Starmer, the precedents of Eden> Macmillan and Thatcher > Major seems to bolster view that it's not (yet) game over for the Tories.
    However. This would be their fourth PM in six years. At some stage folk will surely twig it isn't the leader who is the problem.
    Surely?
    It used to be the case only as late as ten years ago that, if you changed jobs in the City every 3 years it was seen as a negative. Now it’s seen as a negative if you don’t change that frequently.

    I suspect the 4 leaders in 6 years won’t matter for much.
    Maybe. Or maybe I grew up Thatcher to Blair era.
    28 years. Only 3 PM's. That was historically the outlier I guess.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Leon said:

    UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59991870


    Quite the irony here. Right now, the UK government actually has a pretty good story to tell. Vaccine success, booster success, and now economic success. We were meant to be the great laggard of western economies, but actually we are doing pretty well. Of big western nations only the UK, France and America have entirely recovered their Covid losses, Italy Spain and even Germany have not

    And now it seems Omicron is definitely receding and Britain avoided many of the further restrictions seen elsewhere.

    The UK government could be sitting on its 5-10% poll lead, still, with every prospect of re-election

    Yet somehow they have utterly blown it by having a series of ridiculous, shoddy, juvenile, illegal parties with cheap Co-op wine.

    Tragicomic

    Have they really blown it though? I mean, can anyone think of a general election that was ever lost by trivial bullshit like this, even in some indirect "loss of trust" kind of way?

    Maybe I'm missing the depth of anger on the ground and something to do with The Queen but these things happen in mid-term, I don't see why they can't just take the local election L and carry on.
    I’d agree with that. I think the Cons are still in pole position to win the next GE. The fact that Labour struggles to breach 40% should be a warning sign. You know what the Tories (generally) stands for, not the case with Labour / Starmer.

    As for the Cons, they should either get rid of him quickly (ruthless, let a new leader consolidate) or get behind him and continue with him to the next GE. It’s the indecision that will kill then (possibly).
This discussion has been closed.