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Some terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 14 in General
imageSome terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036
    First?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    London police accused of ‘stitch-up’ over refusal to probe Downing St parties https://on.ft.com/3K67P2x
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    How could YouGov have terrible findings for Boris when they are Tory controlled, I read that on Twitter many times.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    Lee Anderson, Conservative MP for Ashfield, creates poll on closed Facebook group asking constituents if it's time for:

    - Boris to quit
    - PM to go in six months
    - everyone to move on

    Anderson, former miner and Labour councillor elected in 2019, says he hasn't picked an option
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1482054046034898949/photo/1
  • Scott_xP said:

    London police accused of ‘stitch-up’ over refusal to probe Downing St parties https://on.ft.com/3K67P2x

    Sue Gray's report is the priority not a police investigation at this stage

    Once the report is released then by all means let the police investigate if they have the evidence

    It is not in anyone's interest to delay matters or kick them into the long grass

    All the momentum is heading to Boris going in the next few weeks

    That has to be the priority
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    Scott_xP said:

    London police accused of ‘stitch-up’ over refusal to probe Downing St parties https://on.ft.com/3K67P2x

    Don't be ridiculous.

    Doing stitch-ups is part of their job.

    That's like accusing water of being wet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,612
    FPT:
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting

    It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
    It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.

    I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
    I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
    Update on Tooting-gate.

    She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?

    So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile

    Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
    Aircraft regularly overfly London at altitude - just check FlightRadar24 and set the altitude filter to over 25,000 feet. They’ll be at cruising speed so moving much faster than those coming in to land.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    FPT
    Cookie said:

    DougSeal said:

    Cyclefree said:

    File under "You could not make it up"

    EXCLUSIVE :

    Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party


    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1482014927577624583?s=20

    In The Telegraph....

    At this rate the civil service is going to come out of this with an even worse reputation than Boris.
    It raises serious questions on their culture and just how long this has been going on

    A poster earlier said it was in 2017 and I have no doubt employment law will have to address this
    Why? It’s perfectly permissible for an employer to ban the consumption of alcohol on its premises at any time. Why do we have to legislate for terrible employers with awful cultures?
    Are we not addressing the wrong problem here? A culture of after-work jollity is not a problem AFAICS. It would be a shame to lose, in fact. And I'm not even averse to the odd blurred boundary between working and drinking - certainly I wouldn't want to live in the puritanical culture where the two cannot mix under any circumstances.
    The problem was having a party while telling everyone else not to.
    The equally big issue that the PM originally told both Parliament and the media a pack of lies, pretending to be furious when he found out about a party he actually attended, when he knew all along, seems to be receding from view.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    kle4 said:

    How could YouGov have terrible findings for Boris when they are Tory controlled, I read that on Twitter many times.

    They made up the 8% saying that Boris has been honest?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,612
    @ThatRyanChap:

    Despite party gate, I think the major calls made by Boris and Cabinet since Jan 2021 have been on the whole spot on.

    Roadmap till June. Vindicated
    Lifting in July. Vindicated
    No plan b in autumn. Vindicated
    No further measures in late Dec. Vindated
  • Firstly - thanks to the medication suggestions the other day. Chloraseptic in fact is benzocaine spray so it didn't make any difference, but thought is appreciated :)

    Secondly - am I the only PBer who does (when well) work in an office where late night drinking is encouraged and normal then? I can assure you it's very common in tech startups.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,382
    edited January 14
    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223
    8% think he's been honest.

    Surely an outlier.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036

    @ThatRyanChap:

    Despite party gate, I think the major calls made by Boris and Cabinet since Jan 2021 have been on the whole spot on.

    Roadmap till June. Vindicated
    Lifting in July. Vindicated
    No plan b in autumn. Vindicated
    No further measures in late Dec. Vindated

    Well, the four week delay to lifting restrictions on the basis of Hancock's dodgy data was wrong.
    And the choice to go for Plan B at all was gesture politics only.
    OTOH the decision to procure vaccines outside of the European effort was brave and vindicated to a huge degree.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting

    It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
    It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.

    I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
    I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
    Update on Tooting-gate.

    She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?

    So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile

    Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
    Aircraft regularly overfly London at altitude - just check FlightRadar24 and set the altitude filter to over 25,000 feet. They’ll be at cruising speed so moving much faster than those coming in to land.
    Ta! The video looks nothing like an aircraft cruising at altitude. In all honesty, it looks like a human (emphasis on human) spaceship early in its ascent - but that seems unlikely in Tooting

    The best guess yet is a military fighter in unusual lighting conditions

    Anyway the mail are now deciding whether to run it and if they don’t I will post it here for people to opine
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284

    @ThatRyanChap:

    Despite party gate, I think the major calls made by Boris and Cabinet since Jan 2021 have been on the whole spot on.

    Roadmap till June. Vindicated
    Lifting in July. Vindicated
    No plan b in autumn. Vindicated
    No further measures in late Dec. Vindated

    The Tories were running rhe economy well in 1996 too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Yougov finds 25% of 2019 Conservative voters are now don't know, 20% voting for other parties and 48% still voting Conservative
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481986797806755842?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 14
    82% of voters think it is right Prince Andrew is no longer an HRH, 6% wrong.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1482015283900563468?s=20

    62% think it right he was removed from his military positions, 11% wrong
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481690651356196865?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478

    Scott_xP said:

    London police accused of ‘stitch-up’ over refusal to probe Downing St parties https://on.ft.com/3K67P2x

    Sue Gray's report is the priority not a police investigation at this stage

    Once the report is released then by all means let the police investigate if they have the evidence

    It is not in anyone's interest to delay matters or kick them into the long grass

    All the momentum is heading to Boris going in the next few weeks

    That has to be the priority
    If Ms Gray acquits Johnson on a technicality, perhaps on the grounds of Crown Immunity, are you comfortable for the Met to pull back and Johnson to continue unfettered?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,046
    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    If there was a crisis in Ukraine, for instance, he would be one to watch.
  • TresTres Posts: 671

    Firstly - thanks to the medication suggestions the other day. Chloraseptic in fact is benzocaine spray so it didn't make any difference, but thought is appreciated :)

    Secondly - am I the only PBer who does (when well) work in an office where late night drinking is encouraged and normal then? I can assure you it's very common in tech startups.

    No, but then again I've never worked in an office which wasn't 2 minutes walk away from a pub.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    "A woman was fined £12,000 for hosting a lockdown-busting party for her 27th birthday last year, a day after two gatherings were held in Downing Street.

    Vianna McKenzie-Bramble, 28, is one of thousands of people who have been taken to court for breaching Covid-curbing rules imposed by the Government."

    Mail Online
  • Scott_xP said:

    London police accused of ‘stitch-up’ over refusal to probe Downing St parties https://on.ft.com/3K67P2x

    Sue Gray's report is the priority not a police investigation at this stage

    Once the report is released then by all means let the police investigate if they have the evidence

    It is not in anyone's interest to delay matters or kick them into the long grass

    All the momentum is heading to Boris going in the next few weeks

    That has to be the priority
    If Ms Gray acquits Johnson on a technicality, perhaps on the grounds of Crown Immunity, are you comfortable for the Met to pull back and Johnson to continue unfettered?
    No
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    I ask again. Did no police in Downing Street notice any of these parties?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084

    8% thinking Boris has been honest is quite encouraging, really. In previous polls about 12% thought the moon landings were faked, so the population is becoming more in touch with reality.

    Crossover with the decapitated isn’t far away…
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting

    It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
    It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.

    I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
    I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
    Update on Tooting-gate.

    She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?

    So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile

    Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
    Aircraft regularly overfly London at altitude - just check FlightRadar24 and set the altitude filter to over 25,000 feet. They’ll be at cruising speed so moving much faster than those coming in to land.
    Ta! The video looks nothing like an aircraft cruising at altitude. In all honesty, it looks like a human (emphasis on human) spaceship early in its ascent - but that seems unlikely in Tooting

    The best guess yet is a military fighter in unusual lighting conditions

    Anyway the mail are now deciding whether to run it and if they don’t I will post it here for people to opine
    If they don't, forward it to that SeanT chap on twitter. Seems open to these kind of theories and has a few thousand followers.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    Oh dear Boris. You can fool some of the people all of the time (approx 8%!), some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

    Basic problem is that Johnson has always believed the public are idiots who are easily manipulated by his charms. He has to now realise that they have finally sussed him and the game is up.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    I doubt it, but he would get my vote, if I still had one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Tres said:

    Firstly - thanks to the medication suggestions the other day. Chloraseptic in fact is benzocaine spray so it didn't make any difference, but thought is appreciated :)

    Secondly - am I the only PBer who does (when well) work in an office where late night drinking is encouraged and normal then? I can assure you it's very common in tech startups.

    No, but then again I've never worked in an office which wasn't 2 minutes walk away from a pub.
    It doesn't matter if late night drinking is normal or not in Whitehall.

    What matters is that it was illegal to have gatherings or events in May 2020.

    And that Johnson has repeatedly lied about these gatherings.

    I fear that Gray is being directed to produce a report about years of Whitehall drinking culture rather than the matter in hand.

    Hope I am wrong.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478

    I ask again. Did no police in Downing Street notice any of these parties?

    Maybe they were at them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076

    Scott_xP said:

    London police accused of ‘stitch-up’ over refusal to probe Downing St parties https://on.ft.com/3K67P2x

    Sue Gray's report is the priority not a police investigation at this stage

    Once the report is released then by all means let the police investigate if they have the evidence

    It is not in anyone's interest to delay matters or kick them into the long grass

    All the momentum is heading to Boris going in the next few weeks

    That has to be the priority
    If Ms Gray acquits Johnson on a technicality, perhaps on the grounds of Crown Immunity, are you comfortable for the Met to pull back and Johnson to continue unfettered?
    It's not in her gift to acquit or convict.
    She isn't the police, nor a judge. You're buying into the Tory spin here.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    edited January 14
    *** Betting Post ***

    In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).

    The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:

    "We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "

    So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. The Betfair rules correctly reflect the fact that, constitutionally, there's no such thing as an interim PM, just a PM. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an temporary PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the temporary PM bonus.

    With other bookies, rules may be different.

    DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    FFS. They just can't help themselves can they? SAGE modellers warning of summer exit wave of 1000s of admissions.

    Is anyone listening anymore?


    "In a research paper submitted to No10's scientific advisory group (SAGE) last week, the team at Warwick University projected up to 10,000 daily admissions in an absolute worst-case scenario.

    The modellers admit that they cannot predict the summer wave 'with any certainty', but they are confident there will be a resurgence between May and July 'due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity'."

    Mail

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    I don't think Boris is going anywhere until at least May, but if he were to go and there was a hunt on for the most anonymous Tory MP who could avoid being labelled along with him, who would that be?

    Hard question, as the very fact of having heard of one might disqualify them, but there's got to be a few who:

    Have a decent amount of experience as an MP
    Possibly even some junior ministerial experience
    But lack any kind of media profile and are utterly inoffensive as a result.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036

    Oh dear Boris. You can fool some of the people all of the time (approx 8%!), some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

    Basic problem is that Johnson has always believed the public are idiots who are easily manipulated by his charms. He has to now realise that they have finally sussed him and the game is up.

    I don't think that's the problem. This isn't some Machiavellian scheme of great cunning. There's no manipulation involved. This is just Boris (and others) not following the rules they themselves set.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084

    *** Betting Post ***

    In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).

    The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:

    "We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "

    So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an interim PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the interim PM bonus.

    DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.

    It also makes laying some of the well known favourites in that market a more attractive strategy
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    kle4 said:

    I don't think Boris is going anywhere until at least May, but if he were to go and there was a hunt on for the most anonymous Tory MP who could avoid being labelled along with him, who would that be?

    Hard question, as the very fact of having heard of one might disqualify them, but there's got to be a few who:

    Have a decent amount of experience as an MP
    Possibly even some junior ministerial experience
    But lack any kind of media profile and are utterly inoffensive as a result.

    Scully?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076

    *** Betting Post ***

    In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).

    The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:

    "We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "

    So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an interim PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the interim PM bonus.

    DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.

    Good spot. As Deputy PM he's the obvious choice.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529
    Boris aint going anywhere
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds 25% of 2019 Conservative voters are now don't know, 20% voting for other parties and 48% still voting Conservative
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481986797806755842?s=20

    Wow

    That is all 2019 con voters, not first time con voters or anything. 48% is down from 68% in October.

    Remarkable
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148

    *** Betting Post ***

    In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).

    The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:

    "We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "

    So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. The Betfair rules correctly reflect the fact that, constitutionally, there's no such thing as an interim PM, just a PM. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an temporary PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the temporary PM bonus.

    With other bookies, rules may be different.

    DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.

    Ohh. Thanks. I have a hole in my next PM betting which is Raab taking over in an emergency as you say. Fixed.

    Excellent spot.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,983

    Scott_xP said:

    London police accused of ‘stitch-up’ over refusal to probe Downing St parties https://on.ft.com/3K67P2x

    Sue Gray's report is the priority not a police investigation at this stage

    Once the report is released then by all means let the police investigate if they have the evidence

    It is not in anyone's interest to delay matters or kick them into the long grass

    All the momentum is heading to Boris going in the next few weeks

    That has to be the priority
    Her report will be a whitewash or at best a fudge blaming others etc and saying not intended , poor old Boris , nothing to see here , move along to next promotion.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,046

    FFS. They just can't help themselves can they? SAGE modellers warning of summer exit wave of 1000s of admissions.

    Is anyone listening anymore?


    "In a research paper submitted to No10's scientific advisory group (SAGE) last week, the team at Warwick University projected up to 10,000 daily admissions in an absolute worst-case scenario.

    The modellers admit that they cannot predict the summer wave 'with any certainty', but they are confident there will be a resurgence between May and July 'due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity'."

    Mail

    Hmmm. The vaccine thing is quite significant. Do we keep them going at least for the vulnerable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    dixiedean said:

    *** Betting Post ***

    In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).

    The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:

    "We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "

    So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an interim PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the interim PM bonus.

    DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.

    Good spot. As Deputy PM he's the obvious choice.
    When Boris goes, Raab will be interim PM, unless somehow, the new Conservative leader is chosen first.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036

    Boris aint going anywhere

    Well I think the opposite. Have just placed a small bet on Boris to be out by the end of March at 3.5 with Skybet. Other better value might be available!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    edited January 14
    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,475

    Firstly - thanks to the medication suggestions the other day. Chloraseptic in fact is benzocaine spray so it didn't make any difference, but thought is appreciated :)

    Secondly - am I the only PBer who does (when well) work in an office where late night drinking is encouraged and normal then? I can assure you it's very common in tech startups.

    In my experience it's varied. I've worked in places where a pint at lunchtime is practically mandatory, and a couple of beers at your desk if you're working past six p.m. is commonplace.

    I also worked in one place where a colleague had a single Guinness with his lunch, was ten minutes late for a meeting (they took ages bringing the bill) and was given an official reprimand for being drunk and missing his meeting. Needless to say I did not stay at that place long.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog.
    Good grief.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,983
    Roger said:

    8% think he's been honest.

    Surely an outlier.

    Just the dumbest of the dumb
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Been reading Humankind by Rutger Bregmen. Interesting little book, but it comes across as a bit odd to me at times, in that it's about how humans are mostly good, which despite our cultural bias to the opposite view I actually totally buy, but at various points it feels more like he's more just idolising pre-historical human society on not much evidence at all (when he at times persuasively makes the case at other points that 'realists' are often cynical about human nature based on little to nothing), assuming it to be some golden age.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog.
    Good grief.
    This is a joke right
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    Young

    MP since 2015

    Remainer

    St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan

    No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift

    Seems aggressive and ambitious
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    Cookie said:

    Oh dear Boris. You can fool some of the people all of the time (approx 8%!), some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

    Basic problem is that Johnson has always believed the public are idiots who are easily manipulated by his charms. He has to now realise that they have finally sussed him and the game is up.

    I don't think that's the problem. This isn't some Machiavellian scheme of great cunning. There's no manipulation involved. This is just Boris (and others) not following the rules they themselves set.
    I didn't suggest it is any great cunning (no linguist jokes please). It is his general attitude. Some folk think (thought) he is a likeable blokey chap. He isn't; he is a cynical pathological liar. He treats everyone as fools not only because he thinks he can get away with it, but because he really does think they are fools. Let's face it there were large numbers of posters on here only a month or two ago that were still rallying to his defence. He only really has one defender now, someone who I am disinclined to tease because he gets so much from everyone else, but shall we say he reminds he a little of Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 936
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds 25% of 2019 Conservative voters are now don't know, 20% voting for other parties and 48% still voting Conservative
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481986797806755842?s=20

    Most of those who voted Conservative in 2019 were and are quite clearly decent people. But 48% are living in a fool's paradise. Gullible fools.

    Time for you Conservatives to pull your socks up, young HY, and do the decent thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015

    I ask again. Did no police in Downing Street notice any of these parties?

    They were the bouncers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog.
    Good grief.
    This is a joke right
    It appears to be a serious report in the Indy. Which doesn’t mean as much as it once did, but still…

    I expect Newsnight will be on the case.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,831

    *** Betting Post ***

    In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).

    The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:

    "We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "

    So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. The Betfair rules correctly reflect the fact that, constitutionally, there's no such thing as an interim PM, just a PM. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an temporary PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the temporary PM bonus.

    With other bookies, rules may be different.

    DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.

    Excellent advice that I would follow if not for the Theresa May exit date market debacle.

    I know this is not directly analogous but I remain nervous.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917

    8% thinking Boris has been honest is quite encouraging, really. In previous polls about 12% thought the moon landings were faked, so the population is becoming more in touch with reality.

    I wonder what percentage of folk believe that aliens are regularly visiting us and simultaneously think Brexit was a good thing?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,606
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds 25% of 2019 Conservative voters are now don't know, 20% voting for other parties and 48% still voting Conservative
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481986797806755842?s=20

    The worry is the swing from Conservative to Labour on YouGov is 11.5% so with tactical voting I'd argue any Conservative MP in a seat where Labour requires less than a 15% swing should be worried.

    The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 7.5% so with tactical voting I'd suggest any Conservative in a seat where the Liberal Democrat is the opponent and the swing required to unseat is 10% or less should also be worried.

    Without knowing the full aspects of churn, given both the Greens and Reform UK are well up on their 2019 numbers (double and triple respectively) we can theorise the Conservative vote is going primarily to Labour and Reform with a small move to the LDs offset by LD losses to Labour and the Greens.

    As YouGov themselves suggest, once voters are gone it's harder to get them back as distinct from those in the "Don't Know" column. Assuming most of the current Don't Knows return to the Conservative camp (and if they don't whether through abstention or moving to another party, it's all over for the Conservatives), we could be looking at both Conservative and Labour parties in the upper 30s with the LDs in the low teens but that looks best case scenario for the Conservatives at this time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    We were told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,366
    IshmaelZ said:

    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    Young

    MP since 2015

    Remainer

    St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan

    No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift

    Seems aggressive and ambitious
    The fact that you listed his almae matres is powerfully depressing
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478

    Tres said:

    Firstly - thanks to the medication suggestions the other day. Chloraseptic in fact is benzocaine spray so it didn't make any difference, but thought is appreciated :)

    Secondly - am I the only PBer who does (when well) work in an office where late night drinking is encouraged and normal then? I can assure you it's very common in tech startups.

    No, but then again I've never worked in an office which wasn't 2 minutes walk away from a pub.
    It doesn't matter if late night drinking is normal or not in Whitehall.

    What matters is that it was illegal to have gatherings or events in May 2020.

    And that Johnson has repeatedly lied about these gatherings.

    I fear that Gray is being directed to produce a report about years of Whitehall drinking culture rather than the matter in hand.

    Hope I am wrong.
    That might be a bit like being caught for drink driving and blaming the car manufacturer for the standard of one's driving.
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog? You couldn't make it up.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Jesus

    The r4 trail for Broadcasting House on Sunday morning said word on the street is there's a massive story in one of the Sundays. Hopefully the coup de grace
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    Alistair said:

    *** Betting Post ***

    In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).

    The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:

    "We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "

    So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. The Betfair rules correctly reflect the fact that, constitutionally, there's no such thing as an interim PM, just a PM. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an temporary PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the temporary PM bonus.

    With other bookies, rules may be different.

    DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.

    Excellent advice that I would follow if not for the Theresa May exit date market debacle.

    I know this is not directly analogous but I remain nervous.
    That’s why I’d prefer lumping a bit more on lay bets for the favourites I don’t fancy. If Raab covering is judged next PM it’s an additional way to win, but it’s still a worthwhile bet otherwise.

    The only difficulty is trying to judge where the sanity bar is going to be out given the electorate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,443
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog.
    Good grief.
    This is a joke right
    It appears to be a serious report in the Indy. Which doesn’t mean as much as it once did, but still…

    I expect Newsnight will be on the case.
    I wonder if someone somewhere is alluding to the Kabul flights?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog.
    Good grief.
    What a mutt.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    We were told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.

    This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,578
    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    Yes. The route is the Sherlockian one - once you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains however improbable must be the truth. While this is a fallacy technically, the real meaning is useful.

    The steps:

    1) Everyone currently in government is one, some or all of: useless, tainted, a risk because of what could emerge afterwards about bouncy castles and jelly, unelectable, without leadership quality

    2) Hunt becomes unelectable because he is too moderate, sensible, remainery and decent to have a chance

    3) The MPs in a fit of sense realise that while Steve Baker PM is a very funny joke, the members are capable of actually doing it so give them two others to choose from

    which leaves almost no-one else.





  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084

    I ask again. Did no police in Downing Street notice any of these parties?

    TBF the whole essence of their job is to keep the place safe and secure and otherwise close their eyes and ears to everything going on inside.

    I wouldn’t expect them to have reported anything at the time - but they may be useful witnesses if ever it is investigated properly (which looks unlikely).

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    Young

    MP since 2015

    Remainer

    St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan

    No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift

    Seems aggressive and ambitious
    The fact that you listed his almae matres is powerfully depressing
    I was going to say just posh but decided to be more informative

    You may not like that it matters, nor do I, but it matters to what is after all the most snobbish selectorate in the world
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801

    FFS. They just can't help themselves can they? SAGE modellers warning of summer exit wave of 1000s of admissions.

    Is anyone listening anymore?


    "In a research paper submitted to No10's scientific advisory group (SAGE) last week, the team at Warwick University projected up to 10,000 daily admissions in an absolute worst-case scenario.

    The modellers admit that they cannot predict the summer wave 'with any certainty', but they are confident there will be a resurgence between May and July 'due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity'."

    Mail

    Hmmm. The vaccine thing is quite significant. Do we keep them going at least for the vulnerable.
    Indeed -

    image

    Vaccinations are pretty cheap, really. Why not keep them going?

    mRNA vaccines tailored to Omicron will kick it out of existence, is my guess.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,366
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog.
    Good grief.
    What a mutt.
    Please nobody bring Carrie into this conversation
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,710

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Operation Save Big Dog.
    Good grief.
    This is a joke right
    They hit on that, having decided against ‘he’s still the dogs’ bollocks’.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    edited January 14
    IshmaelZ said:

    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    Young

    MP since 2015

    Remainer

    St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan

    No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift...
    And who did a shit job of warning of the potential for problems beforehand - his committee, unlike their Lords equivalent, basically ignored Afghanistan in the two years beforehand.

    Style over substance.

    His uncle was an EU Commissioner, so there's that.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,366
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MikeL said:

    Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).

    I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.

    Could he do it?

    Young

    MP since 2015

    Remainer

    St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan

    No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift

    Seems aggressive and ambitious
    The fact that you listed his almae matres is powerfully depressing
    I was going to say just posh but decided to be more informative

    You may not like that it matters, nor do I, but it matters to what is after all the most snobbish selectorate in the world
    You're probably right, which is why it is powerfully depressing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    IanB2 said:

    I ask again. Did no police in Downing Street notice any of these parties?

    TBF the whole essence of their job is to keep the place safe and secure and otherwise close their eyes and ears to everything going on inside.

    I wouldn’t expect them to have reported anything at the time - but they may be useful witnesses if ever it is investigated properly (which looks unlikely).
    Everything about this episode has a parallel in The Death of Stalin. Dom exiting no 10 with his box is Beria handing Stalin's files through the window to his driver, the policemen are the two young soldiers outside Stalin's door pretending not to hear him falling over.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    We were told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.

    This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
    Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    IanB2 said:

    I ask again. Did no police in Downing Street notice any of these parties?

    TBF the whole essence of their job is to keep the place safe and secure and otherwise close their eyes and ears to everything going on inside.

    I wouldn’t expect them to have reported anything at the time - but they may be useful witnesses if ever it is investigated properly (which looks unlikely).

    "the whole essence of their job is to keep the place safe"

    Well, they fell down on the job there then because some pissed policy wonk fell off child's swing from what we have heard.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    Most people just have one party at a time (I never have any at all). How do you manage two? Is one in the attic and the other in the basement and do people shuttle between the two?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    edited January 14
    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    Jesus

    The r4 trail for Broadcasting House on Sunday morning said word on the street is there's a massive story in one of the Sundays. Hopefully the coup de grace
    Fingers crossed.

    Although I think we have reached the stage where Starmer and co are praying on their knees to the gods that the Clown-in-Chief (aka Big Dog Nappy Pants) clings on until the next GE.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    edited January 14
    I see the Arsenal want the derby with Spurs off now.
    This is ridiculous, teams playing if, and when, they feel like it.
    Should have cracked down at the very start. No team, youth team. No youth team forfeit.
    Simples.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    You're gonna have to wait for the Mail to publish, for the actual video of Tooting-gate. Soz
  • FPT:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting

    It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
    It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.

    I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
    I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
    Update on Tooting-gate.

    She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?

    So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile

    Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
    Aircraft regularly overfly London at altitude - just check FlightRadar24 and set the altitude filter to over 25,000 feet. They’ll be at cruising speed so moving much faster than those coming in to land.
    Alternate explanation for Tooting UAP (or UFO for you oldtimers):

    The aliens are coming to either

    a) aid their fellow alien Boris Johnson in his time of need (perhaps by deploying hordes of bots to canvass for the Tories in upcoming local elections)?

    b) transport BJ back to their home planet; or

    c) vaporize him AND us pesky earthlings, leastways those of us withing a Martian league of London?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,443
    FF43 said:

    Most people just have one party at a time (I never have any at all). How do you manage two? Is one in the attic and the other in the basement and do people shuttle between the two?

    One in the residential flat and one in the office part? Or maybe one in No 10 and one in No 11. I imagine there is a limit to the number of holes in the wall between the two, because of the C18 jerrybuilding.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    FF43 said:

    Most people just have one party at a time (I never have any at all). How do you manage two? Is one in the attic and the other in the basement and do people shuttle between the two?

    It's a big place with lots of people working in it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    FF43 said:

    Most people just have one party at a time (I never have any at all). How do you manage two? Is one in the attic and the other in the basement and do people shuttle between the two?

    Haven't you heard of chill out rooms?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,443

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting

    It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
    It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.

    I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
    I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
    Update on Tooting-gate.

    She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?

    So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile

    Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
    Aircraft regularly overfly London at altitude - just check FlightRadar24 and set the altitude filter to over 25,000 feet. They’ll be at cruising speed so moving much faster than those coming in to land.
    Alternate explanation for Tooting UAP (or UFO for you oldtimers):

    The aliens are coming to either

    a) aid their fellow alien Boris Johnson in his time of need (perhaps by deploying hordes of bots to canvass for the Tories in upcoming local elections)?

    b) transport BJ back to their home planet; or

    c) vaporize him AND us pesky earthlings, leastways those of us withing a Martian league of London?
    What do you think all that dilute alcohol was for? Propellant and reaction mass.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,366
    dixiedean said:

    I see the Arsenal want the derby with Spurs off now.
    This is ridiculous, teams playing if, and when, they feel like it.
    Should have cracked down at the very start. No team, youth team. No youth team forfeit.
    Simples.

    It's especially annoying that ESL Money Bastards are doing this.
    "We're too big for this league. Oh, we can't put a team together"
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    I ask again. Did no police in Downing Street notice any of these parties?

    TBF the whole essence of their job is to keep the place safe and secure and otherwise close their eyes and ears to everything going on inside.

    I wouldn’t expect them to have reported anything at the time - but they may be useful witnesses if ever it is investigated properly (which looks unlikely).
    Everything about this episode has a parallel in The Death of Stalin. Dom exiting no 10 with his box is Beria handing Stalin's files through the window to his driver, the policemen are the two young soldiers outside Stalin's door pretending not to hear him falling over.
    And while Fearless Leader is gurgling his last before their eyes, they fall to cursing him & fighting each other?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,132

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    We were told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.

    This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
    Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
    We need genuine red team versus blue team approach to difficult decisions with all material and data open source. Energy policy is a good example where dodgy group think and special interest influence is leading us towards disaster.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,443
    edited January 14
    Leon said:

    You're gonna have to wait for the Mail to publish, for the actual video of Tooting-gate. Soz

    Do tell us when it comes out, please. With linky.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,890
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking:

    The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html

    Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”

    There was a gobby overweight idiot I used to play rugby with insisted everyone call him “Big Dog”. I used to refer to him as “Small Mutt” or “Tiny Chihuahua” just to piss him off.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.

    This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
    Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
    But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?

    Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks
    Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs
    Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything

    I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Have a feeling Big Dog is going to run and run.
    Another failed gag from the master comic who's out of touch.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    FF43 said:

    Most people just have one party at a time (I never have any at all). How do you manage two? Is one in the attic and the other in the basement and do people shuttle between the two?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_(Blackadder)
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