Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).
I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.
Could he do it?
Young
MP since 2015
Remainer
St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan
No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift...
And who did a shit job of warning of the potential for problems beforehand - his committee, unlike their Lords equivalent, basically ignored Afghanistan in the two years beforehand.
Style over substance.
His uncle was an EU Commissioner, so there's that.
Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).
I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.
Could he do it?
Yes. The route is the Sherlockian one - once you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains however improbable must be the truth. While this is a fallacy technically, the real meaning is useful.
The steps:
1) Everyone currently in government is one, some or all of: useless, tainted, a risk because of what could emerge afterwards about bouncy castles and jelly, unelectable, without leadership quality
2) Hunt becomes unelectable because he is too moderate, sensible, remainery and decent to have a chance
3) The MPs in a fit of sense realise that while Steve Baker PM is a very funny joke, the members are capable of actually doing it so give them two others to choose from
which leaves almost no-one else.
Douglas Ross. If only to see JRM’s reaction as he is sacked.
You're gonna have to wait for the Mail to publish, for the actual video of Tooting-gate. Soz
Do tell us when it comes out, please. With linky.
The people at the Daily Mail think it is an amateur rocket enthusiast, FWIW, not a military jet
It certainly looks like a rocket
However the eye-witness contradicts them on size. She is adamant that the *thing* was enormous. There were planes in the sky for her to compare it with. She reckons the thing was ten times the size. That's quite an amateur rocket enthusiast
Could be an optical illusion/Father Ted effect, natch
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Ok - yeh. But I'm mainly interested in the modelling. As Lilico has been saying of late, why were there not more models, or models with different inputs/terms of reference?
The thing about smugly throwing brick bats at SAGE is I remember September 2020 and all the experts on here deriding the Whitty and Valence exponential graph and spending 2 weeks going, "well, ok maybe cases are increasing but they aren't doing so exponentially" , in the face of an incredibly obvious exponential rise.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Ok - yeh. But I'm mainly interested in the modelling. As Lilico has been saying of late, why were there not more models, or models with different inputs/terms of reference?
Completely agree of course. I simply feel the boffins can't be given an individual Get Out Of Jail Free card when they have exercised SO much undemocratic power. With power comes responsibility. Or it should
I don't suggest trials or anything. But yes, name and criticise the decisions and decision makers who, in retrospect, got it wrong: politicians and scientists alike
Operation Big Dog. Wow. He’s literally sitting at a desk planning how other people can fall on his sword. Apart from being a repugnant act of cowardice, this must constitute the first actual work he’s done since becoming PM.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Because they were not asked to get things 'right'. The only way they could have got things right would have been to say 'I'll tell you in a year's time when we have full information'. What you want as a government in this very difficult situation of having to take drastic decisions on very sketchy information - decisions which could lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths or to massive unnecessary economic and other damage - is the best opinions you can get, from people who are going to be as objective as possible, who know their stuff, are able to communicate it, and who are able to communicate the uncertainties. Castigating them for not being 'right' would be disastrous for the next time the government needs such advice.
Booster update - finally managed to book one at a time and place that is convenient to this (temporary) non-driver. I live in a Scottish city.
Oddly, I feel a bit rebellious toward it. I hope this is the last one I am obliged to have, given the new rules on vaxx-ports in Scotland. As I've pointed out before, for us young-uns the personal benefit is not immediately obvious, and it's an hour I'm taking off work to save the life of some 50 year old anti vaxxer. Fuck 'em.
Tom Tugendhadt has just gone 4th favourite for next Con leader, ahead of Gove (only behind Sunak, Truss, Hunt).
I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.
Could he do it?
Young
MP since 2015
Remainer
St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan
No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift...
And who did a shit job of warning of the potential for problems beforehand - his committee, unlike their Lords equivalent, basically ignored Afghanistan in the two years beforehand.
Style over substance.
His uncle was an EU Commissioner, so there's that.
Style is what wins elections
Possibly - but I don't see what he brings to the table in terms either of experience or prescience. I don't think his candidacy, were it to happen, would stand up to scrutiny. Though he's a reasonably polished performer, what sets him apart from anyone else ?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Because they were not asked to get things 'right'. The only way they could have got things right would have been to say 'I'll tell you in a year's time when we have full information'. What you want as a government in this very difficult situation of having to take drastic decisions on very sketchy information - decisions which could lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths or to massive unnecessary economic and other damage - is the best opinions you can get, from people who are going to be as objective as possible, who know their stuff, are able to communicate it, and who are able to communicate the uncertainties. Castigating them for not being 'right' would be disastrous for the next time the government needs such advice.
I'm saying critiqued, not castigated
Jesus Christ if these people are so snowflakey they will collapse under the mildest criticism, perhaps they all need replacing
Operation Big Dog. Wow. He’s literally sitting at a desk planning how other people can fall on his sword. Apart from being a repugnant act of cowardice, this must constitute the first actual work he’s done since becoming PM.
Having wanted to be Prime Minister all his adult life (I suspect), Boris Johnson will be dragged kicking and screaming from No.10 either by Conservative MPs acting out of motivated self interest or (and this is much my preferred option) a vengeful electorate dishing out a defeat for the Conservatives which will make 1832, 1906, 1997 and 2001 look like mild setbacks.
Operation Big Dog. Wow. He’s literally sitting at a desk planning how other people can fall on his sword. Apart from being a repugnant act of cowardice, this must constitute the first actual work he’s done since becoming PM.
Operation Big Dog. Wow. He’s literally sitting at a desk planning how other people can fall on his sword. Apart from being a repugnant act of cowardice, this must constitute the first actual work he’s done since becoming PM.
Having wanted to be Prime Minister all his adult life (I suspect), Boris Johnson will be dragged kicking and screaming from No.10 either by Conservative MPs acting out of motivated self interest or (and this is much my preferred option) a vengeful electorate dishing out a defeat for the Conservatives which will make 1832, 1906, 1997 and 2001 look like mild setbacks.
Don't forget though that he wants to be someone who has been PM rather than actually do the tedious work of being PM.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Because they were not asked to get things 'right'. The only way they could have got things right would have been to say 'I'll tell you in a year's time when we have full information'. What you want as a government in this very difficult situation of having to take drastic decisions on very sketchy information - decisions which could lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths or to massive unnecessary economic and other damage - is the best opinions you can get, from people who are going to be as objective as possible, who know their stuff, are able to communicate it, and who are able to communicate the uncertainties. Castigating them for not being 'right' would be disastrous for the next time the government needs such advice.
I'm saying critiqued, not castigated
Jesus Christ if these people are so snowflakey they will collapse under the mildest criticism, perhaps they all need replacing
That's fair - scientific advice ought to be open and subject to (scientific) scrutiny.
Remember, this is not a pure Boris Johnson scandal, it's a Conservative Party scandal. No quick reinvention. Not on your nelly. A decade in opposition is the price they must pay. A chance not to be wasted. We only get a few. Need to convert!
I see the Arsenal want the derby with Spurs off now. This is ridiculous, teams playing if, and when, they feel like it. Should have cracked down at the very start. No team, youth team. No youth team forfeit. Simples.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Ok - yeh. But I'm mainly interested in the modelling. As Lilico has been saying of late, why were there not more models, or models with different inputs/terms of reference?
Why doesn't Lilico come up with his own model instead of sniping?
Operation Big Dog. Wow. He’s literally sitting at a desk planning how other people can fall on his sword. Apart from being a repugnant act of cowardice, this must constitute the first actual work he’s done since becoming PM.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2h We were told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
Indeed. I’m not clear why auditing their accuracy is considered so gauche, as many seem to think, right here on PB.
I see the Arsenal want the derby with Spurs off now. This is ridiculous, teams playing if, and when, they feel like it. Should have cracked down at the very start. No team, youth team. No youth team forfeit. Simples.
I remember the other day some people pointing out Labour hadn't gone up much.
Well, I was one of them, when Labour was at 38% and the Tories 28%. Much happier now, thanks, although the lead is exactly the same. I said I expected Labour to be in the 40s by this weekend, and they are. The Tories will fall below 32%, though.
Jesus Christ if these people are so snowflakey they will collapse under the mildest criticism, perhaps they all need replacing
Given the flak they have had, including physical assaults, without complaining, they are hardly snowflakes.
The assaults and abuse are absolutely wrong, and the idiots that do it need punishing
Nonetheless our scientific establishment has got lots of things badly wrong, from the get go (like presuming Covid was the flu, a terrible error in retrospect, which probably cost 50,000 lives?)
How come I knew masks were vital even as Profs Van Tam and Harries insisted they were useless? Etc
The inquiry needs to name the individuals if they made mistakes - and name their mistakes. So we can all learn.
"With hindsight, so-and-so was wrong to recommend a further lockdown/Plan B, etc etc"
That's all I am suggesting. It's not exactly kneecappings and show trials
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Ok - yeh. But I'm mainly interested in the modelling. As Lilico has been saying of late, why were there not more models, or models with different inputs/terms of reference?
Why doesn't Lilico come up with his own model instead of sniping?
He’s had a few goes at modelling back before Omicron
So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an interim PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the interim PM bonus.
DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.
Good spot. As Deputy PM he's the obvious choice.
After a bad vonc and Boris flounce to pals home on the med, could the temp be anyone but Raab? Would Chair of leadership election say someone not a candidate for example?
Operation Big Dog. Wow. He’s literally sitting at a desk planning how other people can fall on his sword. Apart from being a repugnant act of cowardice, this must constitute the first actual work he’s done since becoming PM.
FFS. They just can't help themselves can they? SAGE modellers warning of summer exit wave of 1000s of admissions.
Is anyone listening anymore?
"In a research paper submitted to No10's scientific advisory group (SAGE) last week, the team at Warwick University projected up to 10,000 daily admissions in an absolute worst-case scenario.
The modellers admit that they cannot predict the summer wave 'with any certainty', but they are confident there will be a resurgence between May and July 'due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity'."
Mail
Hmmm. The vaccine thing is quite significant. Do we keep them going at least for the vulnerable.
Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”
There was a gobby overweight idiot I used to play rugby with insisted everyone call him “Big Dog”. I used to refer to him as “Small Mutt” or “Tiny Chihuahua” just to piss him off.
Choosing your own nickname is always ridiculous. Unless it is a handle on some bulletin board, of course.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2h We were told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
Indeed. I’m not clear why auditing their accuracy is considered so gauche, as many seem to think, right here on PB.
To start with, Show Your Workings.
These models do not require vast computational resources. Github the code, complete with some handy examples - in easily runnable form.
Open source the inputs you are using for the model as well - set it up so anyone can download and run what you have done. And twiddle the inputs.
Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”
There was a gobby overweight idiot I used to play rugby with insisted everyone call him “Big Dog”. I used to refer to him as “Small Mutt” or “Tiny Chihuahua” just to piss him off.
Choosing your own nickname is always ridiculous. Unless it is a handle on some bulletin board, of course.
Yes. It's on the same level as claiming to be hard or cool.
Most people just have one party at a time (I never have any at all). How do you manage two? Is one in the attic and the other in the basement and do people shuttle between the two?
It must be a new interpretation of socially distanced parties?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2ere told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
This. The problem is that that by crying wolf repeatedly, and not discussing false alarms, they are trashing the brand. Bit like BJ and parties at Downing Street.
Public inquiry needs a thorough review of how SAGE operates and how modelling is used. No blame for individuals - looking at systemic issues. The number of modelling teams is too narrow imho.
But individuals like Whitty are happy to take gongs and knighthoods, why should they be spared individual blame for getting things badly wrong?
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Because they were not asked to get things 'right'. The only way they could have got things right would have been to say 'I'll tell you in a year's time when we have full information'. What you want as a government in this very difficult situation of having to take drastic decisions on very sketchy information - decisions which could lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths or to massive unnecessary economic and other damage - is the best opinions you can get, from people who are going to be as objective as possible, who know their stuff, are able to communicate it, and who are able to communicate the uncertainties. Castigating them for not being 'right' would be disastrous for the next time the government needs such advice.
Simply saying that all expert advice has no comeback in public service is ridiculous.
It's a hard concept for some. IIRC the police in Strathclyde tried to seize and use as evidence interview recordings from an air accident. When interviewed on TV, it was quite clear the policeman doing the interview couldn't understand why anyone would not want to find a person to blame.....
We need a feedback system of
1) What went right 2) What went wrong 3) What nearly went wrong 4) What nearly went right 5) Next time.....
You're gonna have to wait for the Mail to publish, for the actual video of Tooting-gate. Soz
Do tell us when it comes out, please. With linky.
The people at the Daily Mail think it is an amateur rocket enthusiast, FWIW, not a military jet
It certainly looks like a rocket
However the eye-witness contradicts them on size. She is adamant that the *thing* was enormous. There were planes in the sky for her to compare it with. She reckons the thing was ten times the size. That's quite an amateur rocket enthusiast
Could be an optical illusion/Father Ted effect, natch
So she was standing there watching it, what happened to it? Where did it go? Some amateur rocket isnt going to achieve stable orbit.
Why are so many shrewd Political Punters on here, at this end of the week, still posting they think he will survive? The Smithsons, Eagles?
I’m calling it. The moment the reports published the letters go in.
What the report says, how damaging it is, doesn’t matter at all now, my tip to Sue play it safe warble on about Peppa Pig, no one will notice it doesn’t matter what you say, because report publication it’s purely the moment the Conservative Party claims it has enough to act.
This is the kicker: They have already been given enough to act, by Boris himself this week, when he admitted he lied to Parliament, admitted he broke the law, admitted he was at a party the same hour his spokesman was telling the nation nobody could! After the report, MPs send their letters in with piece to camera saying ‘from this report it unfortunately looks like Boris repeatedly mislead the house, and I don’t want to do this, as you know I voted for him, but we can’t have that.’
The report doesn’t matter now, they already have what they need. It matters only as symbolic cover for the action. The truth is, what drives the remaining letters and the comprehensive vonc is appreciating how this cocktail of anger and ridicule, of memes on distrust and betrayal that perhaps last for generations, is now damaging the whole party long term, not just Boris electoral prospects long term.
I’ve called it. Only about ten more excruciating days of Boozy Bozo to go and we enter the interesting New World of post Boris Conservative Politics.
8% thinking Boris has been honest is quite encouraging, really. In previous polls about 12% thought the moon landings were faked, so the population is becoming more in touch with reality.
I wonder what percentage of folk believe that aliens are regularly visiting us and simultaneously think Brexit was a good thing?
Presumably the ones who think the aliens are here to sign a brilliant trade deal with us.
Why are so many shrewd Political Punters on here, at this end of the week, still posting they think he will survive? The Smithsons, Eagles?
I’m calling it. The moment the reports published the letters go in.
What the report says, how damaging it is, doesn’t matter at all now, my tip to Sue play it safe warble on about Peppa Pig, no one will notice it doesn’t matter what you say, because report publication it’s purely the moment the Conservative Party claims it has enough to act.
This is the kicker: They have already been given enough to act, by Boris himself this week, when he admitted he lied to Parliament, admitted he broke the law, admitted he was at a party the same hour his spokesman was telling the nation nobody could! After the report, MPs send their letters in with piece to camera saying ‘from this report it unfortunately looks like Boris repeatedly mislead the house, and I don’t want to do this, as you know I voted for him, but we can’t have that.’
The report doesn’t matter now, they already have what they need. It matters only as symbolic cover for the action. The truth is, what drives the remaining letters and the comprehensive vonc is appreciating how this cocktail of anger and ridicule, of memes on distrust and betrayal that perhaps last for generations, is now damaging the whole party long term, not just Boris electoral prospects long term.
I’ve called it. Only about ten more excruciating days of Boozy Bozo to go and we enter the interesting New World of post Boris Conservative Politics.
And on that note, let’s party 🥳
I think he’s gone after he drubbing they get in the May locals. The party won’t stomach the loss of many hard working councillors to pander to this clowns ego.
Why are so many shrewd Political Punters on here, at this end of the week, still posting they think he will survive? The Smithsons, Eagles?
I’m calling it. The moment the reports published the letters go in.
What the report says, how damaging it is, doesn’t matter at all now, my tip to Sue play it safe warble on about Peppa Pig, no one will notice it doesn’t matter what you say, because report publication it’s purely the moment the Conservative Party claims it has enough to act.
This is the kicker: They have already been given enough to act, by Boris himself this week, when he admitted he lied to Parliament, admitted he broke the law, admitted he was at a party the same hour his spokesman was telling the nation nobody could! After the report, MPs send their letters in with piece to camera saying ‘from this report it unfortunately looks like Boris repeatedly mislead the house, and I don’t want to do this, as you know I voted for him, but we can’t have that.’
The report doesn’t matter now, they already have what they need. It matters only as symbolic cover for the action. The truth is, what drives the remaining letters and the comprehensive vonc is appreciating how this cocktail of anger and ridicule, of memes on distrust and betrayal that perhaps last for generations, is now damaging the whole party long term, not just Boris electoral prospects long term.
I’ve called it. Only about ten more excruciating days of Boozy Bozo to go and we enter the interesting New World of post Boris Conservative Politics.
And on that note, let’s party 🥳
It's matter of the politics catching up with the reality. Binning the PM because of some press report, and a few polls, the report not even begun? People are talking themselves in and out of it. It needs something concrete.... Something that is "real" in the political world.
Until that happens, we are still in Phase 1 of this, I think.
Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been ruled out of Gabon's Africa Cup of Nations game against Ghana with 'heart lesions' after a bout of Covid.
Did we establish whether aliens have landed in Tooting? It’s the other side of London from me, and I haven’t been in years, but there’s a few decent boozers down there. The King’s Head is reasonable choice for our intergalactic friends.
I've enlarged THE TOOTING-GATE UAP VIDEO and I reckon the Daily Mail are right, it is a rocket. You can freeze frame it at 8 seconds, when for a tiny moment the image clarifies, and it has a distinct cinched waist like a more angular V2 rocket
Though that could also fit a fighter jet shooting straight up, I suppose
The size remains a mystery, it must be pretty big, but if it is as big as she claims that is sensational. 10 times the size of a jet plane?
That has to be wrong, an optical illusion, but even so - as I say - it must be pretty big. It's too stable to be little
Who the hell is firing chunky-ass rockets to the south west of Tooting?!
The outrage about today's "revelations" about people partying on the eve of Prince Philips funeral seems confected as well given the vast majority of the leftie journos at BBC, ITV and Sky as well as the Labour Party would get rid of Her Majesty tomorrow is they could.
I think the Sunday papers need to bring something new to the table or it feels like it's starting to fizzle until that Sue persons reports anyway...
I've enlarged THE TOOTING-GATE UAP VIDEO and I reckon the Daily Mail are right, it is a rocket. You can freeze frame it at 8 seconds, when for a tiny moment the image clarifies, and it has a distinct cinched waist like a more angular V2 rocket
Though that could also fit a fighter jet shooting straight up, I suppose
The size remains a mystery, it must be pretty big, but if it is as big as she claims that is sensational. 10 times the size of a jet plane?
That has to be wrong, an optical illusion, but even so - as I say - it must be pretty big. It's too stable to be little
Who the hell is firing chunky-ass rockets to the south west of Tooting?!
The outrage about today's "revelations" about people partying on the eve of Prince Philips funeral seems confected as well given the vast majority of the leftie journos at BBC, ITV and Sky as well as the Labour Party would get rid of Her Majesty tomorrow is they could.
I think the Sunday papers need to bring something new to the table or it feels like it's starting to fizzle until that Sue persons reports anyway...
Hope springs eternal. Like Tory faith in Boris Johnson?
Did we establish whether aliens have landed in Tooting? It’s the other side of London from me, and I haven’t been in years, but there’s a few decent boozers down there. The King’s Head is reasonable choice for our intergalactic friends.
Kudos.
Jaffna House does some of the best Sri Lankan food in London.
I've enlarged THE TOOTING-GATE UAP VIDEO and I reckon the Daily Mail are right, it is a rocket. You can freeze frame it at 8 seconds, when for a tiny moment the image clarifies, and it has a distinct cinched waist like a more angular V2 rocket
Though that could also fit a fighter jet shooting straight up, I suppose
The size remains a mystery, it must be pretty big, but if it is as big as she claims that is sensational. 10 times the size of a jet plane?
That has to be wrong, an optical illusion, but even so - as I say - it must be pretty big. It's too stable to be little
Who the hell is firing chunky-ass rockets to the south west of Tooting?!
Comments
Not least the Queen.
It certainly looks like a rocket
However the eye-witness contradicts them on size. She is adamant that the *thing* was enormous. There were planes in the sky for her to compare it with. She reckons the thing was ten times the size. That's quite an amateur rocket enthusiast
Could be an optical illusion/Father Ted effect, natch
Build Back Borisless.
I don't suggest trials or anything. But yes, name and criticise the decisions and decision makers who, in retrospect, got it wrong: politicians and scientists alike
Just leave, you tedious pile of sick.
https://twitter.com/RealMarkDexter/status/1482071317247627264
Shed of the Rose Garden on White House grounds, is where they should have locked up #45.
LAB: 42% (+5)
CON: 32% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)
via
@SavantaComRes
, 13 - 14 Jan
Chgs. w/ 09 Jan
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1482069385913286660
Oddly, I feel a bit rebellious toward it. I hope this is the last one I am obliged to have, given the new rules on vaxx-ports in Scotland. As I've pointed out before, for us young-uns the personal benefit is not immediately obvious, and it's an hour I'm taking off work to save the life of some 50 year old anti vaxxer. Fuck 'em.
I don't think his candidacy, were it to happen, would stand up to scrutiny. Though he's a reasonably polished performer, what sets him apart from anyone else ?
Jesus Christ if these people are so snowflakey they will collapse under the mildest criticism, perhaps they all need replacing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/59884125
Reminds me of the closure of NotW to save the career of one woman. Worked in the end.
https://twitter.com/DavidRoe92/status/1482073989744836617
Although they pissed around so much last season that only the Mighty Wigan played all their games in the end.
But yeah. 48-0 time has come.
I don't think his personality will save him.
Nonetheless our scientific establishment has got lots of things badly wrong, from the get go (like presuming Covid was the flu, a terrible error in retrospect, which probably cost 50,000 lives?)
How come I knew masks were vital even as Profs Van Tam and Harries insisted they were useless? Etc
The inquiry needs to name the individuals if they made mistakes - and name their mistakes. So we can all learn.
"With hindsight, so-and-so was wrong to recommend a further lockdown/Plan B, etc etc"
That's all I am suggesting. It's not exactly kneecappings and show trials
Not since Blair????
See operation big dog for more information
I wonder if Boris's tenure can be described entirely in "do" words.
Dom, doxx (as he now does to his officials), doss, doff (their caps to 'im) and, more than any other, d'oh!
Where was his place of work during lockdown?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1482039865856385024
EDIT - FAKE NEWS - Labour polled 42% under Starmer in November 2020.
Unless it is a handle on some bulletin board, of course.
These models do not require vast computational resources. Github the code, complete with some handy examples - in easily runnable form.
Open source the inputs you are using for the model as well - set it up so anyone can download and run what you have done. And twiddle the inputs.
Maybe it's not real?
SOMETHING IS DEFINITELY GOING ON
He peaked with Lab on 46 on 1.12.17 an 8 pt lead.
His biggest lead was 44/32 also in 2017
Corbyn's high was 46 in two polls in June 2017!
It's not about castigation - what we need here is good old https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_culture
It's a hard concept for some. IIRC the police in Strathclyde tried to seize and use as evidence interview recordings from an air accident. When interviewed on TV, it was quite clear the policeman doing the interview couldn't understand why anyone would not want to find a person to blame.....
We need a feedback system of
1) What went right
2) What went wrong
3) What nearly went wrong
4) What nearly went right
5) Next time.....
I’m calling it. The moment the reports published the letters go in.
What the report says, how damaging it is, doesn’t matter at all now, my tip to Sue play it safe warble on about Peppa Pig, no one will notice it doesn’t matter what you say, because report publication it’s purely the moment the Conservative Party claims it has enough to act.
This is the kicker: They have already been given enough to act, by Boris himself this week, when he admitted he lied to Parliament, admitted he broke the law, admitted he was at a party the same hour his spokesman was telling the nation nobody could! After the report, MPs send their letters in with piece to camera saying ‘from this report it unfortunately looks like Boris repeatedly mislead the house, and I don’t want to do this, as you know I voted for him, but we can’t have that.’
The report doesn’t matter now, they already have what they need. It matters only as symbolic cover for the action. The truth is, what drives the remaining letters and the comprehensive vonc is appreciating how this cocktail of anger and ridicule, of memes on distrust and betrayal that perhaps last for generations, is now damaging the whole party long term, not just Boris electoral prospects long term.
I’ve called it. Only about ten more excruciating days of Boozy Bozo to go and we enter the interesting New World of post Boris Conservative Politics.
And on that note, let’s party 🥳
Until that happens, we are still in Phase 1 of this, I think.
Quick, someone warn the good (and bad) folk of Ealing, Darjeeling, Steyning and Wheeling!
Kudos.
Though that could also fit a fighter jet shooting straight up, I suppose
The size remains a mystery, it must be pretty big, but if it is as big as she claims that is sensational. 10 times the size of a jet plane?
That has to be wrong, an optical illusion, but even so - as I say - it must be pretty big. It's too stable to be little
Who the hell is firing chunky-ass rockets to the south west of Tooting?!
AT LEAST IT SEEMS TO BE FOG
Anyone else starting to get bored with Partygate?
The outrage about today's "revelations" about people partying on the eve of Prince Philips funeral seems confected as well given the vast majority of the leftie journos at BBC, ITV and Sky as well as the Labour Party would get rid of Her Majesty tomorrow is they could.
I think the Sunday papers need to bring something new to the table or it feels like it's starting to fizzle until that Sue persons reports anyway...
He hasn't been on tonite.
Spooky.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10403999/What-f-Unidentified-enormous-object-filmed-flying-straight-London-sky.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBT68a56s70