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Some terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com
Some terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com
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Some terrible findings for Johnson & co from YouGov – politicalbetting.com
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- Boris to quit
- PM to go in six months
- everyone to move on
Anderson, former miner and Labour councillor elected in 2019, says he hasn't picked an option https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1482054046034898949/photo/1
Once the report is released then by all means let the police investigate if they have the evidence
It is not in anyone's interest to delay matters or kick them into the long grass
All the momentum is heading to Boris going in the next few weeks
That has to be the priority
Doing stitch-ups is part of their job.
That's like accusing water of being wet.
Despite party gate, I think the major calls made by Boris and Cabinet since Jan 2021 have been on the whole spot on.
Roadmap till June. Vindicated
Lifting in July. Vindicated
No plan b in autumn. Vindicated
No further measures in late Dec. Vindated
Secondly - am I the only PBer who does (when well) work in an office where late night drinking is encouraged and normal then? I can assure you it's very common in tech startups.
I don't think I've seen a single post on here recently even mentioning him.
Could he do it?
Surely an outlier.
And the choice to go for Plan B at all was gesture politics only.
OTOH the decision to procure vaccines outside of the European effort was brave and vindicated to a huge degree.
The best guess yet is a military fighter in unusual lighting conditions
Anyway the mail are now deciding whether to run it and if they don’t I will post it here for people to opine
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481986797806755842?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1482015283900563468?s=20
62% think it right he was removed from his military positions, 11% wrong
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481690651356196865?s=20
Vianna McKenzie-Bramble, 28, is one of thousands of people who have been taken to court for breaching Covid-curbing rules imposed by the Government."
Mail Online
Basic problem is that Johnson has always believed the public are idiots who are easily manipulated by his charms. He has to now realise that they have finally sussed him and the game is up.
What matters is that it was illegal to have gatherings or events in May 2020.
And that Johnson has repeatedly lied about these gatherings.
I fear that Gray is being directed to produce a report about years of Whitehall drinking culture rather than the matter in hand.
Hope I am wrong.
Remember, these are trained, expert policemen. Who can clearly remember, in detail, things that didn't happen. Like being called a pleb. Stuff that actually happens - why would they need remember that?
She isn't the police, nor a judge. You're buying into the Tory spin here.
In the Next PM market (Betfair), you can currently get over 40.0 on Raab. I think that's excellent value (I've just topped up at 50.0).
The important thing here is the exact rules which Betfair apply:
"We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister "
So this is NOT the same as the Next Leader market, where an interim leader doesn't count. The Betfair rules correctly reflect the fact that, constitutionally, there's no such thing as an interim PM, just a PM. If Boris stands down in a hurry, then there's a possibility we might need an temporary PM while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader. There's a good chance that would be current Deputy PM Raab, in which you win. You might also win by him becoming next leader; that's not likely, but better than 40 to 1 odds ain't bad even without the temporary PM bonus.
With other bookies, rules may be different.
DYOR, this is not advice, etc etc.
Is anyone listening anymore?
"In a research paper submitted to No10's scientific advisory group (SAGE) last week, the team at Warwick University projected up to 10,000 daily admissions in an absolute worst-case scenario.
The modellers admit that they cannot predict the summer wave 'with any certainty', but they are confident there will be a resurgence between May and July 'due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity'."
Mail
Hard question, as the very fact of having heard of one might disqualify them, but there's got to be a few who:
Have a decent amount of experience as an MP
Possibly even some junior ministerial experience
But lack any kind of media profile and are utterly inoffensive as a result.
That is all 2019 con voters, not first time con voters or anything. 48% is down from 68% in October.
Remarkable
Excellent spot.
The Indy claims to have details of the clown’s plan to dump the blame on lots of others:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html
Which the idiot has allegedly himself named “Operation Save Big Dog”
I also worked in one place where a colleague had a single Guinness with his lunch, was ten minutes late for a meeting (they took ages bringing the bill) and was given an official reprimand for being drunk and missing his meeting. Needless to say I did not stay at that place long.
Good grief.
MP since 2015
Remainer
St Pauls and Cambridge. Fought in Iraq and Afghanistan
No govt job ever but chair of Foreign Affairs Committee whose vital current job is to crucify the Johnsons over the Kabul airlift
Seems aggressive and ambitious
Time for you Conservatives to pull your socks up, young HY, and do the decent thing.
I expect Newsnight will be on the case.
I know this is not directly analogous but I remain nervous.
The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 7.5% so with tactical voting I'd suggest any Conservative in a seat where the Liberal Democrat is the opponent and the swing required to unseat is 10% or less should also be worried.
Without knowing the full aspects of churn, given both the Greens and Reform UK are well up on their 2019 numbers (double and triple respectively) we can theorise the Conservative vote is going primarily to Labour and Reform with a small move to the LDs offset by LD losses to Labour and the Greens.
As YouGov themselves suggest, once voters are gone it's harder to get them back as distinct from those in the "Don't Know" column. Assuming most of the current Don't Knows return to the Conservative camp (and if they don't whether through abstention or moving to another party, it's all over for the Conservatives), we could be looking at both Conservative and Labour parties in the upper 30s with the LDs in the low teens but that looks best case scenario for the Conservatives at this time.
@DPJHodges
·
2h
We were told we had to follow the advice of the experts. Fine. But if we're going to be expected to do that, then we have to assess the accuracy and validity of that advice. And in the case of Omicron it was wrong. Manifestly, spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
The r4 trail for Broadcasting House on Sunday morning said word on the street is there's a massive story in one of the Sundays. Hopefully the coup de grace
The only difficulty is trying to judge where the sanity bar is going to be out given the electorate.
The steps:
1) Everyone currently in government is one, some or all of: useless, tainted, a risk because of what could emerge afterwards about bouncy castles and jelly, unelectable, without leadership quality
2) Hunt becomes unelectable because he is too moderate, sensible, remainery and decent to have a chance
3) The MPs in a fit of sense realise that while Steve Baker PM is a very funny joke, the members are capable of actually doing it so give them two others to choose from
which leaves almost no-one else.
I wouldn’t expect them to have reported anything at the time - but they may be useful witnesses if ever it is investigated properly (which looks unlikely).
You may not like that it matters, nor do I, but it matters to what is after all the most snobbish selectorate in the world
Vaccinations are pretty cheap, really. Why not keep them going?
mRNA vaccines tailored to Omicron will kick it out of existence, is my guess.
Style over substance.
His uncle was an EU Commissioner, so there's that.
Well, they fell down on the job there then because some pissed policy wonk fell off child's swing from what we have heard.
Although I think we have reached the stage where Starmer and co are praying on their knees to the gods that the Clown-in-Chief (aka Big Dog Nappy Pants) clings on until the next GE.
This is ridiculous, teams playing if, and when, they feel like it.
Should have cracked down at the very start. No team, youth team. No youth team forfeit.
Simples.
The aliens are coming to either
a) aid their fellow alien Boris Johnson in his time of need (perhaps by deploying hordes of bots to canvass for the Tories in upcoming local elections)?
b) transport BJ back to their home planet; or
c) vaporize him AND us pesky earthlings, leastways those of us withing a Martian league of London?
Labour 42%
Conservatives 32%
LDs 11%
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1482064968568778759?s=20
Van Tam got it horribly wrong on masks
Whitty surely got it wrong on Plan B and his advice to scrap all parties might have ruined 1000 pubs
Jenny Harries got it wrong on pretty much everything
I don't see why boffins can be credited but not critiqued
Another failed gag from the master comic who's out of touch.
Not least the Queen.