@ydoethur I was not aware of your seeing a counsellor before, I spend so much time talking about my self, I have selfishly not thought as to whether others may be going through trouble.
I really hope you keep well - and for your sake and mine, I hope we do avoid another lockdown.
Sending you and family my very best wishes.
I'm not surprised you don't know, as I've never mentioned it before! However, I thought you might like to know you weren't alone.
To be honest, from a purely personal point of view I don't mind being locked down. I've got a nice house, all of Cannock Chase to play with, a decent income and ways of topping it up. Lockdowns don't hurt me personally.
It's the rubbish they imposed on schools last year to try and avoid shutting them that half killed me to the extent there were times I couldn't actually walk due to stress related pains in my legs.
Which is another reason why I'm exploring options going forward.
Sorry to hear that, and hope it all works out for you.
I think Mrs Capitano is probably about to reach the same point, not helped by an unsympathetic academy trust. Trying to keep a school running with a quarter of the staff off at any given point, the supply budget all gone, and barely any supply teachers available in any case, is not a bundle of laughs right now.
I am sorry to read this.
I spend so much time in my own bubble, it is easy to forget the difficulties so many are experiencing, the way we treat teachers I really consider despicable in many ways.
Have the lockdown perverts stopped to make note of the top 5 reported symptoms from Omicron thus far? Not in South Africa, their experience is of no relevance at all to us because reasons. No, I’m talking about those reported by ZOE in London.
This is compared of course with fever, new continuous cough and loss of smell in Classic Covid.
Sounds remarkably like the symptoms for coronaviruses already in general circulation to me. Normally called “the common cold”. And is also consistent with the serology that indicated omicron is an upper rather than lower respiratory infection.
Anyway, back to the general bed wetting and calls to criminalise social interaction.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
No it's much prettier than that at the moment with the low sun but it's glorious sunshine and if it wasn't for your comrades in the Tory Party the South of France or Venice or Forence or Palma would be as accessible as Newcastle or Bristol or Aberdeen or even Cumbria.
If it wasn't for Macron it would still be easily accessible for travellers who were vaccinated and had had negative tests
Question for Macron is whether it was worth him breaking the legs of France's winter tourism economy for.
Tourism is 9% of France's economy. UK is 15% of France's Tourism.
According to wiki international tourism is 3% of French economy, and I doubt UK is 15% of French international tourism, though no doubt important to some winter resorts.
From a uni mate who runs a restaurant in a French ski resort..
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
Sure some people will cheat but most people will be honest and a lot of infectious people won't attend big event venues. It will have an impact on reducing the spread, whether that is a worth the cost to businesses who knows, but just because it is not perfect does not mean it has no impact.
Wrong....if you are fully vaccinated you don't have to do one. Its only unvaccinated. So again the responsible people might do one regardless of the law, but the law doesn't require it.
Some venues are now LFT required regardless of vaccination. And anyway my point is not wrong, for venues that apply the minimum by law. Infectious, honest unvaccinated people who would otherwise attend an event will not go, thereby reducing spread. That infectious, dishonest unvaccinated people will attend regardless does not change that.
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
With respect unless you were claiming that a new variant with a lot of mutations leading to deep reductions in vaccine efficacy and extremely high rates of transmission was coming then your "this seemed unlikely" isn't really much more accurate or useful than the people saying it was all over. The number of people predicting something like the Omicron variant coming in late 2021 could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. For a longtime I've personally thought that a sting in the tail could be ahead of us, but I didn't think we'd face it anything like this soon.
We have had a black swan of a variant crop up, that has left everyone dumbstruck.
I wasn't claiming that but surely in Government they should have been making contingencies for this kind of scenario.
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
This was compounded by Johnson's ridiculous argument about making the changes "irreversible" and that two jabs would get us to freedom, as I believe the Daily Mail reported.
The truth of the matter is that as long as COVID is around, Governments will have to decide how to deal with it. The Tories need to decide at what level they will accept deaths and cases being at and stick to that. It's the constant flip-flopping and lack of clarity that isn't helpful to anyone.
If the cases and deaths are irrelevant then they need to say so.
Lockdown til the summer again is a realistic (likely?) possibility now. If so I will certainly be "complacent" again in the summer and act without regard to the virus at the time for as long as we can next year.
What would your criteria be for coming out of lockdown this time?
I don't see the point in it extending beyond say mid-Feb, on the simplistically calculated basis that we are on track to have 85% of the population (not just adults) booster-vaccinated by around Jan 20th.
Add 3 weeks, and what value is added by a lockdown?
Perhaps NHS stress levels, but we have no idea how far those are going to rise.
I see @Carnyx liking my posts - I hope you too are keeping well
Yes, thank you; trying to be positive and making progress with at least some things such as clearing my late father's home. And I reciprocate the kind wishes, of course.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
Very few left now other than ideological anti-vaxxers, and they cannot be reasoned with.
A few may relent when unable to fly anywhere, but most have invested so much that they cannot turn back.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove
And yet, the threats cotinue. I don't have the confidence that you do that the opinions of individual ministers are that relevant. They will get led down whatever path the civil service wants to take them.
Johnson's problem is that he's been forced into putting Whitty, Valance etc front and centre of the public health messaging because repeated rule flouting by politicians and appointees like Cummings have destroyed public trust. So if he goes against scientific advice and the scientists resign, then the government is completely fucked - I don't think his premiership would survive Whitty resigning. But it's his own actions that have given the scientists this veto.
Witty won't resign. Its clear he hasn't agreed with a number of the government moves, but he then chooses his words carefully to make it clear he would have chosen a different path.
I think that's a function of the divergence between his views and the government’s actions not being that great. Which is a function of the government knowing he would resign if the divergence were great enough, and the knowledge that that would sink the government. Whitty resigning is off the equilibrium path, in the language of game theory.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
Sure some people will cheat but most people will be honest and a lot of infectious people won't attend big event venues. It will have an impact on reducing the spread, whether that is a worth the cost to businesses who knows, but just because it is not perfect does not mean it has no impact.
Wrong....if you are fully vaccinated you don't have to do one. Its only unvaccinated. So again the responsible people might do one regardless of the law, but the law doesn't require it.
Some venues are now LFT required regardless of vaccination. And anyway my point is not wrong, for venues that apply the minimum by law. Infectious, honest unvaccinated people who would otherwise attend an event will not go, thereby reducing spread. That infectious, dishonest unvaccinated people will attend regardless does not change that.
LFT regardless isn't the law though. That's the point. Some venues for the past 6 months have required a negative test, which is up to them. We are talking about the vaccine passport law.
Can somebody explain why there is so much vaccine hesitancy in certain groups? And how this might be combatted?
A lot of cutural, religious, political and other beliefs are total nonsense, also a hell of lot of people are idiots. I've no idea how to combat it that wouldn't sound extremely wicked.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
Yes some people will die but the vast majority will be unvaccinated.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK
You sound a bit like Scott n Paste fighting the last war. Restrictions are coming, its just a matter of quite how far they go, when they will be announced and when they will be introduced / for how long.
Increased hospitalisations and deaths are already baked in, even among double and triple jabbed. If when the sombero is finally flatten as a total is very large is a different debate to if we will get at best a short period of time when there will be a significant increase in deaths...and the public will be scared and be pro lockdown.
They are not coming, we are not going to impose another lockdown to save a few people from dying (mainly unvaccinated) if it means collapsing the Tory vote. You do not understand the Tory Party, our people, many of them owning or working in small businesses, do not want another lockdown.
Boosters not another lockdown
If you haven't noticed, the conservative vote has already collapsed
The latest polling still has the Conservatives in the mid 30s, introduce another lockdown and the Tory vote would collapse back to the early 20s or below and RefUK over 10% ie back to levels under May in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit as promised
It's possible to have outdoor seating for pubs in winter but you'd need a lot of those patio heaters which probably wouldn't go down well with environmental campaigners. A lot of city centre places already do.
A lot of places have no outdoor space, and many/most places that do have outdoor space are not economic using only outdoor space. There's also the issue of toilet facilities if you can't go indoors, and portaloos are confined spaces too.
Yes, for all the reasons in the thread header, the idea of al fresco hospitality in the winter is laughably impracticable.
By contrast, bringing in vaccine passports for smaller hospitality venues is more difficult but not impossible. It could have been made a lot more practicable if the Government had spent the past few months in liaison with the relevant industry bodies to work out the practical details of such putting in place contingency plans for operating effective schemes of this sort.
As it stands, I'm not going anywhere near a pub or restaurant at the moment. I would do still if effective vaccine passports were in force and I could see that they were being properly enforced.
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
This was compounded by Johnson's ridiculous argument about making the changes "irreversible" and that two jabs would get us to freedom, as I believe the Daily Mail reported.
The truth of the matter is that as long as COVID is around, Governments will have to decide how to deal with it. The Tories need to decide at what level they will accept deaths and cases being at and stick to that. It's the constant flip-flopping and lack of clarity that isn't helpful to anyone.
If the cases and deaths are irrelevant then they need to say so.
Lockdown til the summer again is a realistic (likely?) possibility now. If so I will certainly be "complacent" again in the summer and act without regard to the virus at the time for as long as we can next year.
What would your criteria be for coming out of lockdown this time?
I don't see the point in it extending beyond say mid-Feb, on the simplistically calculated basis that we are on track to have 85% of the population (not just adults) booster-vaccinated by around Jan 20th.
Add 3 weeks, and what value is added by a lockdown?
I am not in favour of lockdown precisely because no-one has given much thought to exit criteria, or at least publicly and honestly communicated that.
By mid Feb, the most vulnerable will have had their boosters 6 months ago. Is it better to have a load more u40s with a booster or the vulnerable with a more recent booster? We do not know and can't get the data in advance but I would not be at all surprised by the latter which will lead to the need for another round of jabs in the spring/early summer.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
There is an effective lockdown now for all those sectors dependant on socialising as people try and protect themselves.
Last night:
Well. Am in pub. Live music from a great band. Plenty of people here if not rammed. The atmosphere is wonderful.
Christ! Life is for living. Not cowering. Understand that others may take a different view. But I want to feel ALIVE! I want to bop and dance with a living breathing warm body and smile and laugh and flirt and just be with people.
And yes I have had a drink or two - a very nice Pasion Bobal.
...
Well, place is now full. People are bopping, it is FUCKING awesome!
How quickly the line changes when its required to demand another handout.
Shall I mention all the other nights when there were 4 people in the pub all evening? Or in one case one person. Even last night it was not as full as on previous occasions when this band has performed.
Revenue this month so far has been down 60%. One night will help. But Daughter expects to make a loss in December.
Stuff happens.
Lots of people have struggled, lost money, have had to adapt.
And they all have my sympathy.
But what you're asking for is that the people who are still working pay more taxes so that others can get a handout while doing nothing.
This cannot go on forever.
Excuse me - my daughter has been and is working hard, harder probably than a lot of people who sat around getting fat contracts because they were friends of a Minister.
Unlike some of them - based in offshore tax havens and paying no tax - she is about to pay corporation tax on last year's profits.
She is not asking for a handout to do nothing. She is asking for some coherent government policy making which takes account of the realities of business life and some temporary support. Not lies about non-existent support and incoherent and confusing statements.
She is adapting. By cutting down on staff costs- which means a lower income for people, on supplies - lower revenue for other businesses and on hours - to save on fixed costs. All of this means lower revenue, lower income for others, lower growth and lower tax revenues.
And since support won't be forthcoming she will close the pub in January - it is always closed in the first 2 weeks of the year anyway - and will see whether it is worth reopening before the lease comes to an end. She is not extending in part because of all this. And so another viable business - because until now it has been profitable - disappears with a loss of local jobs etc.
Maybe it will reopen. Who knows?
Ireland and Norway have provided limited targeted support. I do not see why Britain cannot do the same. As it is the government is happy to splash out cash to help its mates but expects small businesses in a variety of sectors to bear the cost of actions taken to preserve public health. I do not think this fair and I would say this even if Daughter was not in this particular business.
It seems to me that what is being done now is not being driven by public health or economic concerns or a well thought out balance between the two but by whatever suits the political ambitions of particular Ministers (see @NickPalmer's post up thread on Sunak) and internal Tory party politicking. The effect on others is just unfortunate collateral damage. This is not how a country should be governed.
@Cyclefree I just wanted to say thank you for the header and as always, I send you and family, including and especially your daughter, my absolute best wishes over this difficult period.
I hope you all stay well and have a lovely Christmas.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
With respect unless you were claiming that a new variant with a lot of mutations leading to deep reductions in vaccine efficacy and extremely high rates of transmission was coming then your "this seemed unlikely" isn't really much more accurate or useful than the people saying it was all over. The number of people predicting something like the Omicron variant coming in late 2021 could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. For a longtime I've personally thought that a sting in the tail could be ahead of us, but I didn't think we'd face it anything like this soon.
We have had a black swan of a variant crop up, that has left everyone dumbstruck.
I wasn't claiming that but surely in Government they should have been making contingencies for this kind of scenario.
Well, they were, as we know from @Heathener 's sources (although she misunderstood what was happening I didn't doubt her information the planning was happening - what was more disturbing was the way her source seemed to be willing on lockdown). What they don't seem to have thought of is what to do if lockdowns were not going to be effective for whatever reason. And that's a really bad error.
One obvious contingency plan that should have been explored in February last year was to open Nightingale Schools - take over disused offices and bring back teachers on supply, newly retired, left the profession etc so you could dramatically cut the number of children in classrooms and thereby spread them out more. That would have done far more to contain the spread than face masks, and it would probably have been cheaper in the long run. But nobody even seems to have thought of it. Plus, what was all that about forcing unis back when there were so many things that could have been done to ameliorate the pandemic by keeping things online for a term, or even suspending them for a semester?
The whole government machine, throughout, has shown a lack of imagination and flexibility that is just breathtaking. And it doesn't bode well for other areas of policy either (indeed, the IRP is a classic example of it - 'just run the trains faster on the existing track will do the trick.') As for health, how long did it take to even think about different types of mask?
So I'm not surprised the government hasn't set itself meaningful criteria to judge its actions and responses.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove
And yet, the threats cotinue. I don't have the confidence that you do that the opinions of individual ministers are that relevant. They will get led down whatever path the civil service wants to take them.
Johnson's problem is that he's been forced into putting Whitty, Valance etc front and centre of the public health messaging because repeated rule flouting by politicians and appointees like Cummings have destroyed public trust. So if he goes against scientific advice and the scientists resign, then the government is completely fucked - I don't think his premiership would survive Whitty resigning. But it's his own actions that have given the scientists this veto.
Witty won't resign. Its clear he hasn't agreed with a number of the government moves, but he then chooses his words carefully to make it clear he would have chosen a different path.
I think that's a function of the divergence between his views and the government’s actions not being that great. Which is a function of the government knowing he would resign if the divergence were great enough, and the knowledge that that would sink the government. Whitty resigning is off the equilibrium path, in the language of game theory.
It has and is. He didn't believe in the Tier idea. He doesn't believe in Plan B, he clearly wanted a lockdown 2 weeks ago. He made a big point of saying Plan B wasn't his idea and when asked questions about parties etc, he was diplomatic but clear it was if up to him they would be banned.
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
With respect unless you were claiming that a new variant with a lot of mutations leading to deep reductions in vaccine efficacy and extremely high rates of transmission was coming then your "this seemed unlikely" isn't really much more accurate or useful than the people saying it was all over. The number of people predicting something like the Omicron variant coming in late 2021 could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. For a longtime I've personally thought that a sting in the tail could be ahead of us, but I didn't think we'd face it anything like this soon.
We have had a black swan of a variant crop up, that has left everyone dumbstruck.
I wasn't claiming that but surely in Government they should have been making contingencies for this kind of scenario.
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
With respect unless you were claiming that a new variant with a lot of mutations leading to deep reductions in vaccine efficacy and extremely high rates of transmission was coming then your "this seemed unlikely" isn't really much more accurate or useful than the people saying it was all over. The number of people predicting something like the Omicron variant coming in late 2021 could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. For a longtime I've personally thought that a sting in the tail could be ahead of us, but I didn't think we'd face it anything like this soon.
We have had a black swan of a variant crop up, that has left everyone dumbstruck.
I wasn't claiming that but surely in Government they should have been making contingencies for this kind of scenario.
You're looking at a multi-factor situation - vaccinations, previous infections, variants, hospitalisations.
Its impossible to make a long term plan because the factors are constantly changing.
And any long term plan would immediately be criticised by those who want to criticise the government for anything.
The only realistic long term strategy is for everyone to infected at least once. Preferably with vaccine protection.
But if the government said that everyone will be infected it will immediately be criticised by all those who think covid can be made to disappear.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
Yes some people will die but the vast majority will be unvaccinated.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK
You sound a bit like Scott n Paste fighting the last war. Restrictions are coming, its just a matter of quite how far they go, when they will be announced and when they will be introduced / for how long.
Increased hospitalisations and deaths are already baked in, even among double and triple jabbed. If when the sombero is finally flatten as a total is very large is a different debate to if we will get at best a short period of time when there will be a significant increase in deaths...and the public will be scared and be pro lockdown.
They are not coming, we are not going to impose another lockdown to save a few people from dying (mainly unvaccinated) if it means collapsing the Tory vote. You do not understand the Tory Party, our people, many of them owning or working in small businesses, do not want another lockdown.
Boosters not another lockdown
If you haven't noticed, the conservative vote has already collapsed
The latest polling still has the Conservatives in the mid 30s, introduce another lockdown and the Tory vote would collapse back to the early 20s or below and RefUK over 10% ie back to levels under May in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit as promised
You mean the one that had conservatives on 30%
After May failed to deliver Brexit by 10th April until the European elections when she resigned, the Tory poll range was 19%-29%, they failed to even reach 30%
There is an effective lockdown now for all those sectors dependant on socialising as people try and protect themselves.
Last night:
Well. Am in pub. Live music from a great band. Plenty of people here if not rammed. The atmosphere is wonderful.
Christ! Life is for living. Not cowering. Understand that others may take a different view. But I want to feel ALIVE! I want to bop and dance with a living breathing warm body and smile and laugh and flirt and just be with people.
And yes I have had a drink or two - a very nice Pasion Bobal.
...
Well, place is now full. People are bopping, it is FUCKING awesome!
How quickly the line changes when its required to demand another handout.
Shall I mention all the other nights when there were 4 people in the pub all evening? Or in one case one person. Even last night it was not as full as on previous occasions when this band has performed.
Revenue this month so far has been down 60%. One night will help. But Daughter expects to make a loss in December.
Stuff happens.
Lots of people have struggled, lost money, have had to adapt.
And they all have my sympathy.
But what you're asking for is that the people who are still working pay more taxes so that others can get a handout while doing nothing.
This cannot go on forever.
Excuse me - my daughter has been and is working hard, harder probably than a lot of people who sat around getting fat contracts because they were friends of a Minister.
Unlike some of them - based in offshore tax havens and paying no tax - she is about to pay corporation tax on last year's profits.
She is not asking for a handout to do nothing. She is asking for some coherent government policy making which takes account of the realities of business life and some temporary support. Not lies about non-existent support and incoherent and confusing statements.
She is adapting. By cutting down on staff costs- which means a lower income for people, on supplies - lower revenue for other businesses and on hours - to save on fixed costs. All of this means lower revenue, lower income for others, lower growth and lower tax revenues.
And since support won't be forthcoming she will close the pub in January - it is always closed in the first 2 weeks of the year anyway - and will see whether it is worth reopening before the lease comes to an end. She is not extending in part because of all this. And so another viable business - because until now it has been profitable - disappears with a loss of local jobs etc.
Maybe it will reopen. Who knows?
Ireland and Norway have provided limited targeted support. I do not see why Britain cannot do the same. As it is the government is happy to splash out cash to help its mates but expects small businesses in a variety of sectors to bear the cost of actions taken to preserve public health. I do not think this fair and I would say this even if Daughter was not in this particular business.
It seems to me that what is being done now is not being driven by public health or economic concerns or a well thought out balance between the two but by whatever suits the political ambitions of particular Ministers (see @NickPalmer's post up thread on Sunak) and internal Tory party politicking. The effect on others is just unfortunate collateral damage. This is not how a country should be governed.
On a small pedantic point, 'Britain' needs qualification. Scottish Gmt is providing £66m support (out of its other budgets, there neing no Barnett consequential from the nonexistentUKG support. I think Wales too.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
It is not really unthinkable it is what we had this very year. It was shit for many and actually good for others. Not in favour but think it is far more likely than lockdown for a month or less and then open up again.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
Now that's an idea with possible mileage. That might just tip the people who aren't getting vaccines over the edge without forcing them to or denying them treatment. Which had seemed the alternatives up to now.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
Very few left now other than ideological anti-vaxxers, and they cannot be reasoned with.
A few may relent when unable to fly anywhere, but most have invested so much that they cannot turn back.
Ultimately they all get infected and the problem disappears.
To be honest I'm surprised they haven't all been infected already.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
Yes some people will die but the vast majority will be unvaccinated.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK
You sound a bit like Scott n Paste fighting the last war. Restrictions are coming, its just a matter of quite how far they go, when they will be announced and when they will be introduced / for how long.
Increased hospitalisations and deaths are already baked in, even among double and triple jabbed. If when the sombero is finally flatten as a total is very large is a different debate to if we will get at best a short period of time when there will be a significant increase in deaths...and the public will be scared and be pro lockdown.
They are not coming, we are not going to impose another lockdown to save a few people from dying (mainly unvaccinated) if it means collapsing the Tory vote. You do not understand the Tory Party, our people, many of them owning or working in small businesses, do not want another lockdown.
Boosters not another lockdown
If you haven't noticed, the conservative vote has already collapsed
The latest polling still has the Conservatives in the mid 30s, introduce another lockdown and the Tory vote would collapse back to the early 20s or below and RefUK over 10% ie back to levels under May in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit as promised
You mean the one that had conservatives on 30%
After May failed to deliver Brexit by 10th April until the European elections when she resigned, the Tory poll range was 19%-29%, they failed to even reach 30%
Wait until May 2022 - if things don’t change Boris will be on about 25% - those quietly implemented tax increases are going to be a surprise as will the new energy prices.
No it's much prettier than that at the moment with the low sun but it's glorious sunshine and if it wasn't for your comrades in the Tory Party the South of France or Venice or Forence or Palma would be as accessible as Newcastle or Bristol or Aberdeen or even Cumbria.
If it wasn't for Macron it would still be easily accessible for travellers who were vaccinated and had had negative tests
Question for Macron is whether it was worth him breaking the legs of France's winter tourism economy for.
Tourism is 9% of France's economy. UK is 15% of France's Tourism.
According to wiki international tourism is 3% of French economy, and I doubt UK is 15% of French international tourism, though no doubt important to some winter resorts.
I think the winter resorts are the key problem. As per the article linked UK is about 9% of visitors to French Ski resorts but a much larger % of spending due to a love of the apres ski….!
Also as per the article some resorts will be screwed - the head of Val D’isere quotes a UK figure of 42% and I imagine there are many other resorts such as Morzine, Les Arcs and the Portes du Soleil which will be devastated too.
I'd like to say a word in defence of Chris Whitty. From the start of this crisis, it strikes me that he has been the voice of sanity while others around him flail wildly in the dark. He's always dispassionate, measured, reasonable, evidence-based and coherent. He's the only one I've really trusted. And he's generally been pretty spot-on with his reasoning.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
That's a recipe for permanent division of the body politic. What happened to One Nation Toryism?
If we are to have more restrictions, the Government really needs to spend the next several months coming up with an actual plan around whether we need more boosters, what level of restrictions is acceptable or not, what level of deaths and cases are acceptable and having very strict parameters around what we do going forward.
We simply cannot continue to respond as and when things happen anymore. We had a whole summer to prepare and we seem to have done very little, let's please not make that mistake again. For all our sakes.
We have been doing very well with Delta, and Omicron only arrived 4 weeks or so ago from South Africa which has changed the science and way of dealing with it that is not possible to predict beforehand and even now nobody knows just where this is going
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
Now that's an idea with possible mileage. That might just tip the people who aren't getting vaccines over the edge without forcing them to or denying them treatment. Which had seemed the alternatives up to now.
You’re fighting yesterday’s war. Anti vaxxers will all be getting nature’s own vaccine in the next few weeks.
I'd like to say a word in defence of Chris Whitty. From the start of this crisis, it strikes me that he has been the voice of sanity while others around him flail wildly in the dark. He's always dispassionate, measured, reasonable, evidence-based and coherent. He's the only one I've really trusted. And he's generally been pretty spot-on with his reasoning.
Yes he has been impressive. I think he is a bit over cautious but that is probably the right thing to be given the PMs "instincts".
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
They're comfortable in their big houses with big gardens and established lives. No thought given whatsoever to 20-somethings living 4 in a three bedroom flat with no outdoor space and nowhere to go for months on end, or to kids who's education and life chances are being wrecked so blithely to save people from their own stupidity of not getting the vaccine.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
Yes some people will die but the vast majority will be unvaccinated.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK
You sound a bit like Scott n Paste fighting the last war. Restrictions are coming, its just a matter of quite how far they go, when they will be announced and when they will be introduced / for how long.
Increased hospitalisations and deaths are already baked in, even among double and triple jabbed. If when the sombero is finally flatten as a total is very large is a different debate to if we will get at best a short period of time when there will be a significant increase in deaths...and the public will be scared and be pro lockdown.
They are not coming, we are not going to impose another lockdown to save a few people from dying (mainly unvaccinated) if it means collapsing the Tory vote. You do not understand the Tory Party, our people, many of them owning or working in small businesses, do not want another lockdown.
Boosters not another lockdown
If you haven't noticed, the conservative vote has already collapsed
The latest polling still has the Conservatives in the mid 30s, introduce another lockdown and the Tory vote would collapse back to the early 20s or below and RefUK over 10% ie back to levels under May in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit as promised
You mean the one that had conservatives on 30%
After May failed to deliver Brexit by 10th April until the European elections when she resigned, the Tory poll range was 19%-29%, they failed to even reach 30%
Wait until May 2022 - if things don’t change Boris will be on about 25% - those quietly implemented tax increases are going to be a surprise as will the new energy prices.
Tax rises are already baked in but only in terms of NI, the only way he falls to 25% is if he introduces further lockdowns. In which case yes his resignation or overthrow would be inevitable
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
It is not really unthinkable it is what we had this very year. It was shit for many and actually good for others. Not in favour but think it is far more likely than lockdown for a month or less and then open up again.
It is unthinkable because we've had 125m vaccinations since then.
Plus likely a further 15m acquired immunity since then.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
Now that's an idea with possible mileage. That might just tip the people who aren't getting vaccines over the edge without forcing them to or denying them treatment. Which had seemed the alternatives up to now.
It’s a good idea in theory, but not sure (in the UK) it would survive the first Guardian editorial calling it racist, quickly picked up by footballers and Labour MPs for the areas of low vaccine take up.
Lord Frost seems to have produced the remarkable achievement of negotiating a deal that already existed, saying the deal he negotiated was crap and then leaving because the deal he negotiated was crap
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
That's a recipe for permanent division of the body politic. What happened to One Nation Toryism?
Even One Nation Toryism was not socialism. How many socialists voted for One Nation Tory MPs rather than Labour MPs? Zero
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
This was compounded by Johnson's ridiculous argument about making the changes "irreversible" and that two jabs would get us to freedom, as I believe the Daily Mail reported.
The truth of the matter is that as long as COVID is around, Governments will have to decide how to deal with it. The Tories need to decide at what level they will accept deaths and cases being at and stick to that. It's the constant flip-flopping and lack of clarity that isn't helpful to anyone.
If the cases and deaths are irrelevant then they need to say so.
Lockdown til the summer again is a realistic (likely?) possibility now. If so I will certainly be "complacent" again in the summer and act without regard to the virus at the time for as long as we can next year.
What would your criteria be for coming out of lockdown this time?
I don't see the point in it extending beyond say mid-Feb, on the simplistically calculated basis that we are on track to have 85% of the population (not just adults) booster-vaccinated by around Jan 20th.
Add 3 weeks, and what value is added by a lockdown?
I am not in favour of lockdown precisely because no-one has given much thought to exit criteria, or at least publicly and honestly communicated that.
By mid Feb, the most vulnerable will have had their boosters 6 months ago. Is it better to have a load more u40s with a booster or the vulnerable with a more recent booster? We do not know and can't get the data in advance but I would not be at all surprised by the latter which will lead to the need for another round of jabs in the spring/early summer.
Not quite right afaics.
UK booster campaign started mid-Sep (6 months would be mid-March), and the vulnerable Groups 1-9 were done by approx - if we call it 10m - Nov week 1.
Agree on possible further boosters, but as yous say we need the data.
I would suggest the vax profile this time round has been a decent balance - they ran from Sep -> Omicron at 200k building to 400k a day ish, to as I see it (may be wrong if someone has more data) allow resources to stay pivoted back to normal NHS. Then we have had a bit of a panic wrt Omicron which has doubled the Vax rate to 1.25% pop or 1.5% of adults per day.
The tricky balance is Covid damage vs neglect of routine and acute healthcare damage.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
It is not really unthinkable it is what we had this very year. It was shit for many and actually good for others. Not in favour but think it is far more likely than lockdown for a month or less and then open up again.
Unfortunately I agree that outcome is quite possible. But I also believe that, if it happens, the consequences will be much worse than the last winter lockdown
You could see people beginning to crumble last time. It took many close to the edge (me included). Another lockdown like that would crack marriages and minds everywhere
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
Yep were you MP to turn up here my comment would be “told you so, shame you didn’t listen” as I closed the door on him.
The told you so is that I said with Boris’s deal I would need paperwork to send stuff to Northern Ireland and oh look we do. Granted it’s a niche complaint but hey he did say exporting would be easier.
@Cyclefree I just wanted to say thank you for the header and as always, I send you and family, including and especially your daughter, my absolute best wishes over this difficult period.
I hope you all stay well and have a lovely Christmas.
Thank you.
I wish you and yours the very best too - for Christmas and beyond. Stay well.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
They're comfortable in their big houses with big gardens and established lives. No thought given whatsoever to 20-somethings living 4 in a three bedroom flat with no outdoor space and nowhere to go for months on end, or to kids who's education and life chances are being wrecked so blithely to save people from their own stupidity of not getting the vaccine.
Yeah everyone making the decisions has pretty much guaranteed work, can work from home and is ultra-cautious for lives but not the economy. The only plausible reason for introducing draconian restrictions is if the NHS is about to fall over, the big problem with that it's that's the line that's been on repeat every winter since about 1990.
Quick unsolicited advice on what next after Frost. Three ways to do replacement if you are Number 10 - path they choose will tell you a lot about nature of political operation left in building 1/
Option one. Go with true believer Brexiteer from backbenches. Assuming someone willing to take the job, this will get you c.12 hours breathing space with latest incarnation of ERG and please some excitable folk. 2/
Won't work in long run because this Government is not going to invoke Article 16 next year - and nor should they in the short term. Cue resignation, WhatsApp bloodletting, compounding chaos 3/
Option Two. Go with largely anonymous safe pair of hands. Fine. But there's no political advance by doing this. And said individual will become target for those mourning Frost the man and myth. Compounding chaos again 4/
Ps on Frost man and myth, depending on your politics he seems this morning to be somewhere between Abraham Lincoln and over promoted booze lobbyist. Suspect neither caricature true - but fascinating to watch narratives nonetheless 5/
Option Three. Give it to the Foreign Secretary where arguably should reside. Triggering Article 16 somewhat more impactful decision than trade deal with Australia. Politically this helps Johnson because tests LT mettle with Brexit BBs and whether for real or just words 6/
Positive inflection for Team Truss is that it offers them platform to do something politically hard. she can conclude to satisfaction of both ERG and wider party then leadership is hers to lose 7/end
Option 4: Is Gove not somewhat underemployed at the moment? He has impeccable credentials with the head bangers but is clever enough to be pragmatic and get this sorted. He may consider it a demotion now that the caravan has moved on somewhat but it could perhaps be combined with his other duties.
Gove is fully employed trying to turn Boris's other slogan into a policy: levelling up.
I am sorry to hear your despondency over your daughters business. I am sympathetic, not least because FoxJr2's plans are also up in smoke. Fortunately he is just 20 so plenty of further opportunities.
I think this wave will blow through quite quickly, but like the pub trade 6 weeks in my work at a critical time can be very serious indeed.
What do you think would be effective interventions for hospitality? I am pretty pessimistic on interventions at the hospital, it looks like being a real repeat of last winter to me.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
It is not really unthinkable it is what we had this very year. It was shit for many and actually good for others. Not in favour but think it is far more likely than lockdown for a month or less and then open up again.
It is unthinkable because we've had 125m vaccinations since then.
Plus likely a further 15m acquired immunity since then.
Not sure what that has to do with being unthinkable? Similar countries are entering lockdowns now. Personally I have not heard any convincing arguments as to how and when those countries will exit lockdown.
Whether we are in favour of it or not, and I am not, it is a very plausible course of action for the UK, and one which we actually know the economic, social and psychological costs very well as we did it this year.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
Now that's an idea with possible mileage. That might just tip the people who aren't getting vaccines over the edge without forcing them to or denying them treatment. Which had seemed the alternatives up to now.
It’s a good idea in theory, but not sure (in the UK) it would survive the first Guardian editorial calling it racist, quickly picked up by footballers and Labour MPs for the areas of low vaccine take up.
Strange how travel restrictions on SA was racist and colonialism....travel restrictions on the UK....countries actually sensibly to limit spread (even though far more seeded in those countries).
I'd like to say a word in defence of Chris Whitty. From the start of this crisis, it strikes me that he has been the voice of sanity while others around him flail wildly in the dark. He's always dispassionate, measured, reasonable, evidence-based and coherent. He's the only one I've really trusted. And he's generally been pretty spot-on with his reasoning.
Also appears to have managed to sublimate every sign of having an ego, unlike many other parties involved (including a lot of the scientists).
LFT clear! Not even a faint line now. Agree with the calls for reducing isolation to 7 days with clear LFTs. Now my wife and I are stuck indoors for three more days spending no money at Xmas when wed be happy to splash some cash at bara and pubs this week.
I know it’s what you are supposed to do, but no one will be checking. If you need to go out, do. After all, hard working civil servants needed a drink after work last year and did...
Quick unsolicited advice on what next after Frost. Three ways to do replacement if you are Number 10 - path they choose will tell you a lot about nature of political operation left in building 1/
Option one. Go with true believer Brexiteer from backbenches. Assuming someone willing to take the job, this will get you c.12 hours breathing space with latest incarnation of ERG and please some excitable folk. 2/
Won't work in long run because this Government is not going to invoke Article 16 next year - and nor should they in the short term. Cue resignation, WhatsApp bloodletting, compounding chaos 3/
Option Two. Go with largely anonymous safe pair of hands. Fine. But there's no political advance by doing this. And said individual will become target for those mourning Frost the man and myth. Compounding chaos again 4/
Ps on Frost man and myth, depending on your politics he seems this morning to be somewhere between Abraham Lincoln and over promoted booze lobbyist. Suspect neither caricature true - but fascinating to watch narratives nonetheless 5/
Option Three. Give it to the Foreign Secretary where arguably should reside. Triggering Article 16 somewhat more impactful decision than trade deal with Australia. Politically this helps Johnson because tests LT mettle with Brexit BBs and whether for real or just words 6/
Positive inflection for Team Truss is that it offers them platform to do something politically hard. she can conclude to satisfaction of both ERG and wider party then leadership is hers to lose 7/end
Option 4: Is Gove not somewhat underemployed at the moment? He has impeccable credentials with the head bangers but is clever enough to be pragmatic and get this sorted. He may consider it a demotion now that the caravan has moved on somewhat but it could perhaps be combined with his other duties.
Gove is fully employed trying to turn Boris's other slogan into a policy: levelling up.
That will be Gove’s excuse to avoid a very poisoned chalice. However levelling up is already cancelled unless Gove can find a way to allow mayors to tax more (or at least spend some of the local income tax revenue) borrow money and have real power.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
That's a recipe for permanent division of the body politic. What happened to One Nation Toryism?
Even One Nation Toryism was not socialism. How many socialists voted for One Nation Tory MPs rather than Labour MPs? Zero
You are always telling us of the importance ot tactical voting in Scotland. It is self-evident that a hell of a lot of Scots voted for One Nation Toryism than the modern "Conservatism".
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
Yep were you MP to turn up here my comment would be “told you so, shame you didn’t listen” as I closed the door on him.
The told you so is that I said with Boris’s deal I would need paperwork to send stuff to Northern Ireland and oh look we do. Granted it’s a niche complaint but hey he did say exporting would be easier.
Unless you voted for him before why would he care? If you already hold a seat the only voters you really care about when canvassing are those who voted for you before and the unknowns or newly joined the registers
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
This is an insane position. With this attitude Tory MPs would not have won any seats in the red wall. Why bother appealing to Labour voters right?
It seems to me that yet again we've spent an entire summer being complacent and saying the virus had gone away, some of us said this seemed unlikely and were shouted down.
This was compounded by Johnson's ridiculous argument about making the changes "irreversible" and that two jabs would get us to freedom, as I believe the Daily Mail reported.
The truth of the matter is that as long as COVID is around, Governments will have to decide how to deal with it. The Tories need to decide at what level they will accept deaths and cases being at and stick to that. It's the constant flip-flopping and lack of clarity that isn't helpful to anyone.
If the cases and deaths are irrelevant then they need to say so.
Lockdown til the summer again is a realistic (likely?) possibility now. If so I will certainly be "complacent" again in the summer and act without regard to the virus at the time for as long as we can next year.
What would your criteria be for coming out of lockdown this time?
I don't see the point in it extending beyond say mid-Feb, on the simplistically calculated basis that we are on track to have 85% of the population (not just adults) booster-vaccinated by around Jan 20th.
Add 3 weeks, and what value is added by a lockdown?
I am not in favour of lockdown precisely because no-one has given much thought to exit criteria, or at least publicly and honestly communicated that.
By mid Feb, the most vulnerable will have had their boosters 6 months ago. Is it better to have a load more u40s with a booster or the vulnerable with a more recent booster? We do not know and can't get the data in advance but I would not be at all surprised by the latter which will lead to the need for another round of jabs in the spring/early summer.
Not quite right afaics.
UK booster campaign started mid-Sep (6 months would be mid-March), and the vulnerable Groups 1-9 were done by approx - if we call it 10m - Nov week 1.
Agree on possible further boosters, but as yous say we need the data.
I would suggest the vax profile this time round has been a decent balance - they ran from Sep -> Omicron at 200k building to 400k a day ish, to as I see it (may be wrong if someone has more data) allow resources to stay pivoted back to normal NHS. Then we have had a bit of a panic wrt Omicron which has doubled the Vax rate to 1.25% pop or 1.5% of adults per day.
The tricky balance is Covid damage vs neglect of routine and acute healthcare damage.
The most vulnerable as per my post, not the 9 vulnerable groups as per your reply, were started in mid Sept.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
That's a recipe for permanent division of the body politic. What happened to One Nation Toryism?
Even One Nation Toryism was not socialism. How many socialists voted for One Nation Tory MPs rather than Labour MPs? Zero
You are always telling us of the importance ot tactical voting in Scotland. It is self-evident that a hell of a lot of Scots voted for One Nation Toryism than the modern "Conservatism".
They voted for Unionists and half of Scots still voted for Labour not them, even in the 1950s
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
Very few left now other than ideological anti-vaxxers, and they cannot be reasoned with.
A few may relent when unable to fly anywhere, but most have invested so much that they cannot turn back.
Ultimately they all get infected and the problem disappears.
To be honest I'm surprised they haven't all been infected already.
It doesn't disappear. There now seem to be significant numbers of reinfections.
Have the lockdown perverts stopped to make note of the top 5 reported symptoms from Omicron thus far? Not in South Africa, their experience is of no relevance at all to us because reasons. No, I’m talking about those reported by ZOE in London.
This is compared of course with fever, new continuous cough and loss of smell in Classic Covid.
Sounds remarkably like the symptoms for coronaviruses already in general circulation to me. Normally called “the common cold”. And is also consistent with the serology that indicated omicron is an upper rather than lower respiratory infection.
Anyway, back to the general bed wetting and calls to criminalise social interaction.
Have the lockdown perverts stopped to make note of the top 5 reported symptoms from Omicron thus far? Not in South Africa, their experience is of no relevance at all to us because reasons. No, I’m talking about those reported by ZOE in London.
This is compared of course with fever, new continuous cough and loss of smell in Classic Covid.
Sounds remarkably like the symptoms for coronaviruses already in general circulation to me. Normally called “the common cold”. And is also consistent with the serology that indicated omicron is an upper rather than lower respiratory infection.
Anyway, back to the general bed wetting and calls to criminalise social interaction.
Very much my experience of the symptoms. And does sound on paper like a common cold. However. It is many, many times worse than any cold I've ever experienced. So. A bit of both really. I don't think it falls into the lockdown category. But equally it isn't owt to be blasé about either. The vulnerable need to take care. Everyone needs to get boosted, and some will be quite ill whatever they do.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
It is not really unthinkable it is what we had this very year. It was shit for many and actually good for others. Not in favour but think it is far more likely than lockdown for a month or less and then open up again.
Unfortunately I agree that outcome is quite possible. But I also believe that, if it happens, the consequences will be much worse than the last winter lockdown
You could see people beginning to crumble last time. It took many close to the edge (me included). Another lockdown like that would crack marriages and minds everywhere
On the marriage front, one of my friends was pretty close to a divorce last lockdown, I thought their marriage was bulletproof but they live in a one bedroom flat with no outdoor space in South London quite far away from the rest of the social circle in North and West London making it difficult for them to do last minute garden drinks with us. Months and months of only seeing each other was really tough according to him, eventually you run out of things to talk about and neither are the kind of people that are happy just sitting together doing their own thing in silence. My wife and I are fine just lying on the same sofa together, saying and doing nothing but I know that's pretty rare.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
Now that's an idea with possible mileage. That might just tip the people who aren't getting vaccines over the edge without forcing them to or denying them treatment. Which had seemed the alternatives up to now.
It’s a good idea in theory, but not sure (in the UK) it would survive the first Guardian editorial calling it racist, quickly picked up by footballers and Labour MPs for the areas of low vaccine take up.
Strange how travel restrictions on SA was racist and colonialism....travel restrictions on the UK....countries actually sensibly to limit spread (even though far more seeded in those countries).
The same words have been used throughout the pandemic, starting from when Trump banned flights from China in January 2020.
In the UK and the US, there are groups of commentators who are so instinctively opposed to anything the government does, and the same idea can be brilliant or evil, depending purely on which ‘side’ the proposer sits politically.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
This is an insane position. With this attitude Tory MPs would not have won any seats in the red wall. Why bother appealing to Labour voters right?
Do you think before you post?
No for an already elected MP, which was the original premise ie NOT a Tory candidate trying to win a Redwall seat for the first time in 2019, it applies absolutely. Only if you are targeting a seat you are not already Tory MP for or the Tory party does not already hold do you need to bother to canvass voters who were not already Tory voters last time or are new voters or voting intentions unknown
There is an effective lockdown now for all those sectors dependant on socialising as people try and protect themselves.
Last night:
Well. Am in pub. Live music from a great band. Plenty of people here if not rammed. The atmosphere is wonderful.
Christ! Life is for living. Not cowering. Understand that others may take a different view. But I want to feel ALIVE! I want to bop and dance with a living breathing warm body and smile and laugh and flirt and just be with people.
And yes I have had a drink or two - a very nice Pasion Bobal.
...
Well, place is now full. People are bopping, it is FUCKING awesome!
How quickly the line changes when its required to demand another handout.
Shall I mention all the other nights when there were 4 people in the pub all evening? Or in one case one person. Even last night it was not as full as on previous occasions when this band has performed.
Revenue this month so far has been down 60%. One night will help. But Daughter expects to make a loss in December.
Stuff happens.
Lots of people have struggled, lost money, have had to adapt.
And they all have my sympathy.
But what you're asking for is that the people who are still working pay more taxes so that others can get a handout while doing nothing.
This cannot go on forever.
Excuse me - my daughter has been and is working hard, harder probably than a lot of people who sat around getting fat contracts because they were friends of a Minister.
Unlike some of them - based in offshore tax havens and paying no tax - she is about to pay corporation tax on last year's profits.
She is not asking for a handout to do nothing. She is asking for some coherent government policy making which takes account of the realities of business life and some temporary support. Not lies about non-existent support and incoherent and confusing statements.
She is adapting. By cutting down on staff costs- which means a lower income for people, on supplies - lower revenue for other businesses and on hours - to save on fixed costs. All of this means lower revenue, lower income for others, lower growth and lower tax revenues.
And since support won't be forthcoming she will close the pub in January - it is always closed in the first 2 weeks of the year anyway - and will see whether it is worth reopening before the lease comes to an end. She is not extending in part because of all this. And so another viable business - because until now it has been profitable - disappears with a loss of local jobs etc.
Maybe it will reopen. Who knows?
Ireland and Norway have provided limited targeted support. I do not see why Britain cannot do the same. As it is the government is happy to splash out cash to help its mates but expects small businesses in a variety of sectors to bear the cost of actions taken to preserve public health. I do not think this fair and I would say this even if Daughter was not in this particular business.
It seems to me that what is being done now is not being driven by public health or economic concerns or a well thought out balance between the two but by whatever suits the political ambitions of particular Ministers (see @NickPalmer's post up thread on Sunak) and internal Tory party politicking. The effect on others is just unfortunate collateral damage. This is not how a country should be governed.
The hospitality sector has had lots of targeted support - VAT reductions, EOtHO, business rate reductions and doubtless much more.
Ultimately all of them are paid for by other sectors of the economy, other businesses, other workers.
And with every handout given so does the addiction to handouts.
Instead of asking for more handouts you'd do better to demand an end to restrictions and a return to normality.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
This is an insane position. With this attitude Tory MPs would not have won any seats in the red wall. Why bother appealing to Labour voters right?
Do you think before you post?
No for an already elected MP, which was the original premise ie NOT a Tory candidate trying to win a Redwall seat for the first time in 2019, it applies absolutely. Only if you are targeting a seat you are not already MP for or your party does not already hold do you need to canvass voters who are not already Tory voters or new voters or voting intentions unknown
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
They're comfortable in their big houses with big gardens and established lives. No thought given whatsoever to 20-somethings living 4 in a three bedroom flat with no outdoor space and nowhere to go for months on end, or to kids who's education and life chances are being wrecked so blithely to save people from their own stupidity of not getting the vaccine.
I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family
They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country
PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away
I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
Very few left now other than ideological anti-vaxxers, and they cannot be reasoned with.
A few may relent when unable to fly anywhere, but most have invested so much that they cannot turn back.
Ultimately they all get infected and the problem disappears.
To be honest I'm surprised they haven't all been infected already.
It doesn't disappear. There now seem to be significant numbers of reinfections.
Which are likely to get steadily milder.
Covid is here and it isn't going away so we will learn to live with it.
Firstly on topic. Beautiful photograph! But I can’t wait to get out there, splashing about like Peppa Pig. But yes seriously, irs very sad for businesses this sneaky hint hint wink wink lockdown that isn’t officially a lockdown 🤬 What’s Sunak going to do to help, he is dragging his feet! He wants to lead the country but he is another fuck business twit?
Secondly on topic most people likely argue on here today. I have read through everything on here since Frosty The Go Man happened on our Journey. I think I understand what you are all saying: The Committee for Brexit Purity are going to execute Danton. That’s it? (Nearly all of you saying this, some, like Big G, still sure resignation got nothing to do with Brexit because not mentioned in resignation letter - which to be fair to Big G I took to mean literally refusing to accept Brexit isn’t done, the sheer horror of the prospect it goes on tearing the Tory Party to shreds🙁 )
I’m very sorry but it has left me with two questions.
Firstly, the high ranking UK official who last week told EU negotiating team our key concession, UK will accept European Court Over ruling UK Democracy and Sovereignty (that is yes, we do wish to start down the slippery slope to being a vassal state of yours) was this, or was this not, Frosty the Go Man?
Secondly, a question for those who voted for Brexit and still support Brexit if I may, does this mean Brexit isn’t over? Brexit is far from done, because from here Brexit means Slash Taxes and Slash Regulation until we are not anything like the European Social Model, or else Brexit is not Brexit and not going to work? 😕
Bad day for my horses yesterday, both pulled up. Hope you did a bit better.
I was on your two who pulled up. Samarrive before I knew you backed him, and the other to use your due diligence to make up a lucky 15. But I did tip a brilliant winner in Champ in out of seat finish, so I got a third of my stake back.
You are very welcome Malcolm, have a happy and enjoyable Christmas mate 🥳
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
This is an insane position. With this attitude Tory MPs would not have won any seats in the red wall. Why bother appealing to Labour voters right?
Do you think before you post?
No for an already elected MP, which was the original premise ie NOT a Tory candidate trying to win a Redwall seat for the first time in 2019, it applies absolutely. Only if you are targeting a seat you are not already MP for or your party does not already hold do you need to canvass voters who are not already Tory voters or new voters or voting intentions unknown
Absolute rubbish. 😂
Says someone who has obviously never done a half decent canvass
Great view from @Cyclefrees window there. I'm an urban spaceman but I can see the attraction of that. And yes there should be govt support for sectors hammered by a legal or de facto lockdown. I don't see it discussed much but I bet one of the biggest challenges with it is the potential for fraud. I understand the previous scheme led to large sums being bamboozled.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
It is not really unthinkable it is what we had this very year. It was shit for many and actually good for others. Not in favour but think it is far more likely than lockdown for a month or less and then open up again.
It is unthinkable because we've had 125m vaccinations since then.
Plus likely a further 15m acquired immunity since then.
Not sure what that has to do with being unthinkable? Similar countries are entering lockdowns now. Personally I have not heard any convincing arguments as to how and when those countries will exit lockdown.
Whether we are in favour of it or not, and I am not, it is a very plausible course of action for the UK, and one which we actually know the economic, social and psychological costs very well as we did it this year.
Psychologically I think its very different.
A year ago vaccinations had only just begun and they promised release.
If we're to say that after three vaccinations plus a good chance of previous infection that you still need to be restricted from doing all the nice things in life its going to be very hard to take for very many people.
Plus the economic costs which can be justified in an emergency cannot be on a continual basis.
@HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?
Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
What about rule of 6?
No
So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.
The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.
LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
Now that's an idea with possible mileage. That might just tip the people who aren't getting vaccines over the edge without forcing them to or denying them treatment. Which had seemed the alternatives up to now.
It’s a good idea in theory, but not sure (in the UK) it would survive the first Guardian editorial calling it racist, quickly picked up by footballers and Labour MPs for the areas of low vaccine take up.
Effective measures to address the disproportionately low vaccine take up and disproportionately high Covid death rate amongst ethnic minorities would be anything but racist. You'll find most on the left in support of such measures, just as we are in favour of addressing health inequalities in general.
And anyway you could go beyond a system of financial penalties by balancing it with financial rewards for getting a first or second vaccine and later on a booster, with the penalties helping fund the incentives.
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
It is not really unthinkable it is what we had this very year. It was shit for many and actually good for others. Not in favour but think it is far more likely than lockdown for a month or less and then open up again.
It is unthinkable because we've had 125m vaccinations since then.
Plus likely a further 15m acquired immunity since then.
Not sure what that has to do with being unthinkable? Similar countries are entering lockdowns now. Personally I have not heard any convincing arguments as to how and when those countries will exit lockdown.
Whether we are in favour of it or not, and I am not, it is a very plausible course of action for the UK, and one which we actually know the economic, social and psychological costs very well as we did it this year.
Psychologically I think its very different.
A year ago vaccinations had only just begun and they promised release.
If we're to say that after three vaccinations plus a good chance of previous infection that you still need to be restricted from doing all the nice things in life its going to be very hard to take for very many people.
Plus the economic costs which can be justified in an emergency cannot be on a continual basis.
I don't particularly disagree apart from those are reasons not to do it, rather than reasons that make it unthinkable.
There is an effective lockdown now for all those sectors dependant on socialising as people try and protect themselves.
Last night:
Well. Am in pub. Live music from a great band. Plenty of people here if not rammed. The atmosphere is wonderful.
Christ! Life is for living. Not cowering. Understand that others may take a different view. But I want to feel ALIVE! I want to bop and dance with a living breathing warm body and smile and laugh and flirt and just be with people.
And yes I have had a drink or two - a very nice Pasion Bobal.
...
Well, place is now full. People are bopping, it is FUCKING awesome!
How quickly the line changes when its required to demand another handout.
Shall I mention all the other nights when there were 4 people in the pub all evening? Or in one case one person. Even last night it was not as full as on previous occasions when this band has performed.
Revenue this month so far has been down 60%. One night will help. But Daughter expects to make a loss in December.
Stuff happens.
Lots of people have struggled, lost money, have had to adapt.
And they all have my sympathy.
But what you're asking for is that the people who are still working pay more taxes so that others can get a handout while doing nothing.
This cannot go on forever.
Excuse me - my daughter has been and is working hard, harder probably than a lot of people who sat around getting fat contracts because they were friends of a Minister.
Unlike some of them - based in offshore tax havens and paying no tax - she is about to pay corporation tax on last year's profits.
She is not asking for a handout to do nothing. She is asking for some coherent government policy making which takes account of the realities of business life and some temporary support. Not lies about non-existent support and incoherent and confusing statements.
She is adapting. By cutting down on staff costs- which means a lower income for people, on supplies - lower revenue for other businesses and on hours - to save on fixed costs. All of this means lower revenue, lower income for others, lower growth and lower tax revenues.
And since support won't be forthcoming she will close the pub in January - it is always closed in the first 2 weeks of the year anyway - and will see whether it is worth reopening before the lease comes to an end. She is not extending in part because of all this. And so another viable business - because until now it has been profitable - disappears with a loss of local jobs etc.
Maybe it will reopen. Who knows?
Ireland and Norway have provided limited targeted support. I do not see why Britain cannot do the same. As it is the government is happy to splash out cash to help its mates but expects small businesses in a variety of sectors to bear the cost of actions taken to preserve public health. I do not think this fair and I would say this even if Daughter was not in this particular business.
It seems to me that what is being done now is not being driven by public health or economic concerns or a well thought out balance between the two but by whatever suits the political ambitions of particular Ministers (see @NickPalmer's post up thread on Sunak) and internal Tory party politicking. The effect on others is just unfortunate collateral damage. This is not how a country should be governed.
I’d also note the £8bn which has disappeared in bounce back loan fraud (as distinct from the similar amount which won’t get paid back because companies are genuinely unable to do so). Some fraud was inevitable, but losses on this scale certainly not.
The hospitality industry is a genuinely hard problem for government. But right now they are just washing their hands of it.
Hitler was a fool, wasn't he? He should just have asked people smugglers to get the SS across rather than all that BS with invasion barges and the Luftwaffe. The invasion would have taken mere hours!
Well we are hardly going to send in the RAF to bomb boats of migrants crossing the channel as the RAF would have bombed Nazi invasion barges and the RN shelled them too
So you're ranking illegal migrants above rebellious Scots, now, is it?
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
That’s an extraordinarily narrow view of the role of MPs. Do you have any attachment to liberal democracy ?
No it's much prettier than that at the moment with the low sun but it's glorious sunshine and if it wasn't for your comrades in the Tory Party the South of France or Venice or Forence or Palma would be as accessible as Newcastle or Bristol or Aberdeen or even Cumbria.
If it wasn't for Macron it would still be easily accessible for travellers who were vaccinated and had had negative tests
Question for Macron is whether it was worth him breaking the legs of France's winter tourism economy for.
Tourism is 9% of France's economy. UK is 15% of France's Tourism.
According to wiki international tourism is 3% of French economy, and I doubt UK is 15% of French international tourism, though no doubt important to some winter resorts.
My links:
"Breakdown of foreign tourists in France in 2018, by country of residence". UK = 14.8%
French Government says 8% overall number on its website:
France has been the world’s leading tourist destination for more than 30 years. In 2019, 90 million international tourists visited France to discover our rich natural and architectural heritage and to enjoy our world-renowned hospitality and way of life. In France, tourism accounts for 8% of GDP. This is thanks to the millions of people, passionate about their jobs and their country, who uphold its excellent reputation day after day.
I'll agree that that is a little ambiguous about domestic / international.
According to this Reuters piece about the impact on Skiing, the UK accounts for 15% of French skiing customers overall (not just international). As the French Tourism Minister put it. However you slice it, it is a very major impact:
Tourism minister Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne said on BFM TV that British tourists accounted for about 15% of French ski resort customers overall, but the percentage was much higher in some resorts such as Val d'Isere, Courchevel and Meribel.
They're very alike. As we all come into contact with Covid often enough it's likely to become more and more like the common cold as we become more immune to it.
The biggest problem with Covid was our lack of immunity to it. Vaccines and boosters give some immunity. Getting the virus and beating it gives even more immunity. Ideally get the virus after getting your booster and vaccines but we're all going to get it.
That's the only way out. If you have another exit from this madness I'm all ears. But delusions of "stop it spreading" is just living in denial.
They are really not. Aside from being viruses. Common colds are caused by a number of different viruses - mainly rhinoviruses.
Your attempts to downplay Covid-19 and the deaths it causes are, frankly, sickening. You are the delusional one.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
Yes some people will die but the vast majority will be unvaccinated.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK
You sound a bit like Scott n Paste fighting the last war. Restrictions are coming, its just a matter of quite how far they go, when they will be announced and when they will be introduced / for how long.
Increased hospitalisations and deaths are already baked in, even among double and triple jabbed. If when the sombero is finally flatten as a total is very large is a different debate to if we will get at best a short period of time when there will be a significant increase in deaths...and the public will be scared and be pro lockdown.
They are not coming, we are not going to impose another lockdown to save a few people from dying (mainly unvaccinated) if it means collapsing the Tory vote. You do not understand the Tory Party, our people, many of them owning or working in small businesses, do not want another lockdown.
Boosters not another lockdown
If you haven't noticed, the conservative vote has already collapsed
The latest polling still has the Conservatives in the mid 30s, introduce another lockdown and the Tory vote would collapse back to the early 20s or below and RefUK over 10% ie back to levels under May in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit as promised
You mean the one that had conservatives on 30%
After May failed to deliver Brexit by 10th April until the European elections when she resigned, the Tory poll range was 19%-29%, they failed to even reach 30%
Wait until May 2022 - if things don’t change Boris will be on about 25% - those quietly implemented tax increases are going to be a surprise as will the new energy prices.
...the only way he falls to 25% is if he introduces further lockdowns...
That would make a good competition, except that I suspect Bozo will soon trump all of the entries with his own
There is an effective lockdown now for all those sectors dependant on socialising as people try and protect themselves.
Last night:
Well. Am in pub. Live music from a great band. Plenty of people here if not rammed. The atmosphere is wonderful.
Christ! Life is for living. Not cowering. Understand that others may take a different view. But I want to feel ALIVE! I want to bop and dance with a living breathing warm body and smile and laugh and flirt and just be with people.
And yes I have had a drink or two - a very nice Pasion Bobal.
...
Well, place is now full. People are bopping, it is FUCKING awesome!
How quickly the line changes when its required to demand another handout.
Shall I mention all the other nights when there were 4 people in the pub all evening? Or in one case one person. Even last night it was not as full as on previous occasions when this band has performed.
Revenue this month so far has been down 60%. One night will help. But Daughter expects to make a loss in December.
Stuff happens.
Lots of people have struggled, lost money, have had to adapt.
And they all have my sympathy.
But what you're asking for is that the people who are still working pay more taxes so that others can get a handout while doing nothing.
This cannot go on forever.
Excuse me - my daughter has been and is working hard, harder probably than a lot of people who sat around getting fat contracts because they were friends of a Minister.
Unlike some of them - based in offshore tax havens and paying no tax - she is about to pay corporation tax on last year's profits.
She is not asking for a handout to do nothing. She is asking for some coherent government policy making which takes account of the realities of business life and some temporary support. Not lies about non-existent support and incoherent and confusing statements.
She is adapting. By cutting down on staff costs- which means a lower income for people, on supplies - lower revenue for other businesses and on hours - to save on fixed costs. All of this means lower revenue, lower income for others, lower growth and lower tax revenues.
And since support won't be forthcoming she will close the pub in January - it is always closed in the first 2 weeks of the year anyway - and will see whether it is worth reopening before the lease comes to an end. She is not extending in part because of all this. And so another viable business - because until now it has been profitable - disappears with a loss of local jobs etc.
Maybe it will reopen. Who knows?
Ireland and Norway have provided limited targeted support. I do not see why Britain cannot do the same. As it is the government is happy to splash out cash to help its mates but expects small businesses in a variety of sectors to bear the cost of actions taken to preserve public health. I do not think this fair and I would say this even if Daughter was not in this particular business.
It seems to me that what is being done now is not being driven by public health or economic concerns or a well thought out balance between the two but by whatever suits the political ambitions of particular Ministers (see @NickPalmer's post up thread on Sunak) and internal Tory party politicking. The effect on others is just unfortunate collateral damage. This is not how a country should be governed.
On a small pedantic point, 'Britain' needs qualification. Scottish Gmt is providing £66m support (out of its other budgets, there neing no Barnett consequential from the nonexistentUKG support. I think Wales too.
Good afternoon Carnyx, cold but pleasant on West coast, hope you are hale and hearty.
Firstly on topic. Beautiful photograph! But I can’t wait to get out there, splashing about like Peppa Pig. But yes seriously, irs very sad for businesses this sneaky hint hint wink wink lockdown that isn’t officially a lockdown 🤬 What’s Sunak going to do to help, he is dragging his feet! He wants to lead the country but he is another fuck business twit?
Secondly on topic most people likely argue on here today. I have read through everything on here since Frosty The Go Man happened on our Journey. I think I understand what you are all saying: The Committee for Brexit Purity are going to execute Danton. That’s it? (Nearly all of you saying this, some, like Big G, still sure resignation got nothing to do with Brexit because not mentioned in resignation letter - which to be fair to Big G I took to mean literally refusing to accept Brexit isn’t done, the sheer horror of the prospect it goes on tearing the Tory Party to shreds🙁 )
I’m very sorry but it has left me with two questions.
Firstly, the high ranking UK official who last week told EU negotiating team our key concession, UK will accept European Court Over ruling UK Democracy and Sovereignty (that is yes, we do wish to start down the slippery slope to being a vassal state of yours) was this, or was this not, Frosty the Go Man?
Secondly, a question for those who voted for Brexit and still support Brexit if I may, does this mean Brexit isn’t over? Brexit is far from done, because from here Brexit means Slash Taxes and Slash Regulation until we are not anything like the European Social Model, or else Brexit is not Brexit and not going to work? 😕
Bad day for my horses yesterday, both pulled up. Hope you did a bit better.
I was on your two who pulled up. Samarrive before I knew you backed him, and the other to use your due diligence to make up a lucky 15. But I did tip a brilliant winner in Champ in out of seat finish, so I got a third of my stake back.
You are very welcome Malcolm, have a happy and enjoyable Christmas mate 🥳
Cheers, Champ was down to a good mark after indifferent form for a while, great pick. Merry Christmas to you and your family, hopefully we will get a few good ones on Boxing Day.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
All voters views should count for all governments. That’s why MPs are elected to represent a constituency, not a party. How would you feel if Epping Forest was represented by, say, the Lib Dems, and your constituency MP refused to listen to you because you voted for a different party?
I would expect a LD MP to ignore my views as a Tory voter unless they could help on a specific personal casework matter, obviously they would focus on what the LD voters who elected them thought
I wouldn’t expect any MP to ignore any constituent. After all, they will be hoping they’ll vote for them at the next election.
If an MP did not get your vote when they were elected, the likelihood is they would never get it. So why would they bother trying to appease you? They would focus on keeping the votes of the voters who elected them in the first place
This is an insane position. With this attitude Tory MPs would not have won any seats in the red wall. Why bother appealing to Labour voters right?
Do you think before you post?
No for an already elected MP, which was the original premise ie NOT a Tory candidate trying to win a Redwall seat for the first time in 2019, it applies absolutely. Only if you are targeting a seat you are not already Tory MP for or the Tory party does not already hold do you need to bother to canvass voters who were not already Tory voters last time or are new voters or voting intentions unknown
Not aware that anyone was talking about newly elected MPs.
I'd like to say a word in defence of Chris Whitty. From the start of this crisis, it strikes me that he has been the voice of sanity while others around him flail wildly in the dark. He's always dispassionate, measured, reasonable, evidence-based and coherent. He's the only one I've really trusted. And he's generally been pretty spot-on with his reasoning.
Also appears to have managed to sublimate every sign of having an ego, unlike many other parties involved (including a lot of the scientists).
My wife have been listening to a number of Prof Witty's public lectures on YouTube, which are very accessible and informative.
Lockdown til the summer again is a realistic (likely?) possibility now.
Not really. We have a vaccination protocol (2 jabs + boosters) that is >98% effective in preventing hospitalisation, but omicron is so transmissible - if it could maintain its initial transmission rate (which it won't) then it would infect everybody in Britain within 6 weeks - that it's going to cause a short sharp shock to health provision through a combination of demand and knocking out staff. To get a flavour, from the CEO of NHS Providers https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1472297080672722954 "London NHS pressure mounting rapidly. Hospitalised covid patients up 30% in week vs national 4%. At 1,534 yesterday (vs 8k in Jan'21 peak). Covid linked staff absences up 140% from 1,900 Sunday to 4,700 Thurs. Some trusts now having to postpone non essential activity...Trusts beyond full stretch doing three things at once, each of which is a massive task by itself. Cope with huge pressure in non-covid care (e.g. urgent care and care backlogs). Exponentially expand booster vaccination campaign, at top speed, working with local govt partners....And get ready for rapid onset of potentially large numbers of new omicron hospitalised covid patients with very large numbers of staff on omicron related sick absence. Trust leaders, as always, doing all they can to provide best possible care in a very pressured context...Important to understand it's not just hospital trusts beyond full stretch. Same applies to community, mental health and ambulance trusts too. For example, London Ambulance Service is taking c2,500 more calls a day than it usually does alongside significant staff absences...Trust leaders tell us the vast majority of hospitalised covid patients in London are not vaccinated, which they find frustrating. Especially since it prevents their trusts from providing the best possible care to all those who need it, covid and non-covid patients alike"
So it looks like we're heading for a real crisis in early January, but will be over the worst of it by the end of the month. All that can be done at this stage is short-term measures to flatten the curve - but after January omicron, at least, looks manageable.
Part of the problem is that omicron spreads like wildfire in hospitals https://twitter.com/docsuzy/status/1471521039771439105 Word from the front line trenches: omicron spreads like wildfire. Omicron went from one patient in a ward, to 8 pts and 4 staff infected overnight to 5 wards full (mostly hospital acquired)4 days later. Monday was horrible Tuesday worse.
Strange how travel restrictions on SA was racist and colonialism....travel restrictions on the UK....countries actually sensibly to limit spread (even though far more seeded in those countries).
I read that Germany's sequencing has shown that they had reached 0.5% cases being Omicron on Dec 5th, so in all likelihood their current level is around 50% (2^7 or so higher). So banning Brits is going to do absolutely nothing. Of course I don't blame them as lots of governments and institutions are busy being seen to do something.
Lockdown til the summer again is a realistic (likely?) possibility now.
Not really. We have a vaccination protocol (2 jabs + boosters) that is >98% effective in preventing hospitalisation, but omicron is so transmissible - if it could maintain its initial transmission rate (which it won't) then it would infect everybody in Britain within 6 weeks - that it's going to cause a short sharp shock to health provision through a combination of demand and knocking out staff. To get a flavour, from the CEO of NHS Providers https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1472297080672722954 "London NHS pressure mounting rapidly. Hospitalised covid patients up 30% in week vs national 4%. At 1,534 yesterday (vs 8k in Jan'21 peak). Covid linked staff absences up 140% from 1,900 Sunday to 4,700 Thurs. Some trusts now having to postpone non essential activity...Trusts beyond full stretch doing three things at once, each of which is a massive task by itself. Cope with huge pressure in non-covid care (e.g. urgent care and care backlogs). Exponentially expand booster vaccination campaign, at top speed, working with local govt partners....And get ready for rapid onset of potentially large numbers of new omicron hospitalised covid patients with very large numbers of staff on omicron related sick absence. Trust leaders, as always, doing all they can to provide best possible care in a very pressured context...Important to understand it's not just hospital trusts beyond full stretch. Same applies to community, mental health and ambulance trusts too. For example, London Ambulance Service is taking c2,500 more calls a day than it usually does alongside significant staff absences...Trust leaders tell us the vast majority of hospitalised covid patients in London are not vaccinated, which they find frustrating. Especially since it prevents their trusts from providing the best possible care to all those who need it, covid and non-covid patients alike"
So it looks like we're heading for a real crisis in early January, but will be over the worst of it by the end of the month. All that can be done at this stage is short-term measures to flatten the curve - but after January omicron, at least, looks manageable.
Part of the problem is that omicron spreads like wildfire in hospitals https://twitter.com/docsuzy/status/1471521039771439105 Word from the front line trenches: omicron spreads like wildfire. Omicron went from one patient in a ward, to 8 pts and 4 staff infected overnight to 5 wards full (mostly hospital acquired)4 days later. Monday was horrible Tuesday worse.
Comments
I spend so much time in my own bubble, it is easy to forget the difficulties so many are experiencing, the way we treat teachers I really consider despicable in many ways.
They are: 1) runny nose, 2) headache, 3) fatigue, 4) sneezing, 5) sore throat.
This is compared of course with fever, new continuous cough and loss of smell in Classic Covid.
Sounds remarkably like the symptoms for coronaviruses already in general circulation to me. Normally called “the common cold”. And is also consistent with the serology that indicated omicron is an upper rather than lower respiratory infection.
Anyway, back to the general bed wetting and calls to criminalise social interaction.
I don't see the point in it extending beyond say mid-Feb, on the simplistically calculated basis that we are on track to have 85% of the population (not just adults) booster-vaccinated by around Jan 20th.
Add 3 weeks, and what value is added by a lockdown?
Perhaps NHS stress levels, but we have no idea how far those are going to rise.
A few may relent when unable to fly anywhere, but most have invested so much that they cannot turn back.
Wasn't Sajid previously one of the anti-lockdown folks?
People toss out these phrases, blithely, like they are predicting “overcast skies for the weekend”
Lockdown til summer. Sweet Jesus and Bloody Mary. The damage that will do to the economic, social, psychological fabric of the nation is unthinkable. And all because some scientists are pessimistic, and some idiots won’t get injected
By contrast, bringing in vaccine passports for smaller hospitality venues is more difficult but not impossible. It could have been made a lot more practicable if the Government had spent the past few months in liaison with the relevant industry bodies to work out the practical details of such putting in place contingency plans for operating effective schemes of this sort.
As it stands, I'm not going anywhere near a pub or restaurant at the moment. I would do still if effective vaccine passports were in force and I could see that they were being properly enforced.
By mid Feb, the most vulnerable will have had their boosters 6 months ago. Is it better to have a load more u40s with a booster or the vulnerable with a more recent booster? We do not know and can't get the data in advance but I would not be at all surprised by the latter which will lead to the need for another round of jabs in the spring/early summer.
Unlike some of them - based in offshore tax havens and paying no tax - she is about to pay corporation tax on last year's profits.
She is not asking for a handout to do nothing. She is asking for some coherent government policy making which takes account of the realities of business life and some temporary support. Not lies about non-existent support and incoherent and confusing statements.
She is adapting. By cutting down on staff costs- which means a lower income for people, on supplies - lower revenue for other businesses and on hours - to save on fixed costs. All of this means lower revenue, lower income for others, lower growth and lower tax revenues.
And since support won't be forthcoming she will close the pub in January - it is always closed in the first 2 weeks of the year anyway - and will see whether it is worth reopening before the lease comes to an end. She is not extending in part because of all this. And so another viable business - because until now it has been profitable - disappears with a loss of local jobs etc.
Maybe it will reopen. Who knows?
Ireland and Norway have provided limited targeted support. I do not see why Britain cannot do the same. As it is the government is happy to splash out cash to help its mates but expects small businesses in a variety of sectors to bear the cost of actions taken to preserve public health. I do not think this fair and I would say this even if Daughter was not in this particular business.
It seems to me that what is being done now is not being driven by public health or economic concerns or a well thought out balance between the two but by whatever suits the political ambitions of particular Ministers (see @NickPalmer's post up thread on Sunak) and internal Tory party politicking. The effect on others is just unfortunate collateral damage. This is not how a country should be governed.
I hope you all stay well and have a lovely Christmas.
In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
One obvious contingency plan that should have been explored in February last year was to open Nightingale Schools - take over disused offices and bring back teachers on supply, newly retired, left the profession etc so you could dramatically cut the number of children in classrooms and thereby spread them out more. That would have done far more to contain the spread than face masks, and it would probably have been cheaper in the long run. But nobody even seems to have thought of it. Plus, what was all that about forcing unis back when there were so many things that could have been done to ameliorate the pandemic by keeping things online for a term, or even suspending them for a semester?
The whole government machine, throughout, has shown a lack of imagination and flexibility that is just breathtaking. And it doesn't bode well for other areas of policy either (indeed, the IRP is a classic example of it - 'just run the trains faster on the existing track will do the trick.') As for health, how long did it take to even think about different types of mask?
So I'm not surprised the government hasn't set itself meaningful criteria to judge its actions and responses.
Its impossible to make a long term plan because the factors are constantly changing.
And any long term plan would immediately be criticised by those who want to criticise the government for anything.
The only realistic long term strategy is for everyone to infected at least once. Preferably with vaccine protection.
But if the government said that everyone will be infected it will immediately be criticised by all those who think covid can be made to disappear.
To be honest I'm surprised they haven't all been infected already.
Also as per the article some resorts will be screwed - the head of Val D’isere quotes a UK figure of 42% and I imagine there are many other resorts such as Morzine, Les Arcs and the Portes du Soleil which will be devastated too.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-tourist-travel-ban-disaster-french-ski-resorts-2021-12-17/
And he's generally been pretty spot-on with his reasoning.
Plus likely a further 15m acquired immunity since then.
UK booster campaign started mid-Sep (6 months would be mid-March), and the vulnerable Groups 1-9 were done by approx - if we call it 10m - Nov week 1.
Agree on possible further boosters, but as yous say we need the data.
I would suggest the vax profile this time round has been a decent balance - they ran from Sep -> Omicron at 200k building to 400k a day ish, to as I see it (may be wrong if someone has more data) allow resources to stay pivoted back to normal NHS. Then we have had a bit of a panic wrt Omicron which has doubled the Vax rate to 1.25% pop or 1.5% of adults per day.
The tricky balance is Covid damage vs neglect of routine and acute healthcare damage.
You could see people beginning to crumble last time. It took many close to the edge (me included). Another lockdown like that would crack marriages and minds everywhere
The told you so is that I said with Boris’s deal I would need paperwork to send stuff to Northern Ireland and oh look we do. Granted it’s a niche complaint but hey he did say exporting would be easier.
I wish you and yours the very best too - for Christmas and beyond. Stay well.
I am sorry to hear your despondency over your daughters business. I am sympathetic, not least because FoxJr2's plans are also up in smoke. Fortunately he is just 20 so plenty of further opportunities.
I think this wave will blow through quite quickly, but like the pub trade 6 weeks in my work at a critical time can be very serious indeed.
What do you think would be effective interventions for hospitality? I am pretty pessimistic on interventions at the hospital, it looks like being a real repeat of last winter to me.
Whether we are in favour of it or not, and I am not, it is a very plausible course of action for the UK, and one which we actually know the economic, social and psychological costs very well as we did it this year.
After all, hard working civil servants needed a drink after work last year and did...
Do you think before you post?
'Hell, I've started oozing again'
However. It is many, many times worse than any cold I've ever experienced.
So. A bit of both really.
I don't think it falls into the lockdown category. But equally it isn't owt to be blasé about either. The vulnerable need to take care. Everyone needs to get boosted, and some will be quite ill whatever they do.
In the UK and the US, there are groups of commentators who are so instinctively opposed to anything the government does, and the same idea can be brilliant or evil, depending purely on which ‘side’ the proposer sits politically.
Ultimately all of them are paid for by other sectors of the economy, other businesses, other workers.
And with every handout given so does the addiction to handouts.
Instead of asking for more handouts you'd do better to demand an end to restrictions and a return to normality.
new thread
They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country
PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away
I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.
Fuck that shit
Covid is here and it isn't going away so we will learn to live with it.
You are very welcome Malcolm, have a happy and enjoyable Christmas mate 🥳
A year ago vaccinations had only just begun and they promised release.
If we're to say that after three vaccinations plus a good chance of previous infection that you still need to be restricted from doing all the nice things in life its going to be very hard to take for very many people.
Plus the economic costs which can be justified in an emergency cannot be on a continual basis.
Last time the real world results were better than the best case scenario modelled by Sage yet still some were calling for restrictions.
And anyway you could go beyond a system of financial penalties by balancing it with financial rewards for getting a first or second vaccine and later on a booster, with the penalties helping fund the incentives.
The hospitality industry is a genuinely hard problem for government. But right now they are just washing their hands of it.
Do you have any attachment to liberal democracy ?
"Breakdown of foreign tourists in France in 2018, by country of residence". UK = 14.8%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/765912/distribution-tourists-foreign-in-la-france-by-zoned-of-residence/
French Government says 8% overall number on its website:
France has been the world’s leading tourist destination for more than 30 years. In 2019, 90 million international tourists visited France to discover our rich natural and architectural heritage and to enjoy our world-renowned hospitality and way of life. In France, tourism accounts for 8% of GDP. This is thanks to the millions of people, passionate about their jobs and their country, who uphold its excellent reputation day after day.
https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/tourism/
I'll agree that that is a little ambiguous about domestic / international.
According to this Reuters piece about the impact on Skiing, the UK accounts for 15% of French skiing customers overall (not just international). As the French Tourism Minister put it. However you slice it, it is a very major impact:
Tourism minister Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne said on BFM TV that British tourists accounted for about 15% of French ski resort customers overall, but the percentage was much higher in some resorts such as Val d'Isere, Courchevel and Meribel.
"Last year the government has provided 7 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of support for the sector and we will continue to stand by the industry," Lemoyne said, without specifying what measures could be implemented.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-support-ski-resorts-hit-by-british-tourists-ban-2021-12-18/
Your attempts to downplay Covid-19 and the deaths it causes are, frankly, sickening. You are the delusional one.
Merry Christmas to you and your family, hopefully we will get a few good ones on Boxing Day.
"London NHS pressure mounting rapidly. Hospitalised covid patients up 30% in week vs national 4%. At 1,534 yesterday (vs 8k in Jan'21 peak). Covid linked staff absences up 140% from 1,900 Sunday to 4,700 Thurs. Some trusts now having to postpone non essential activity...Trusts beyond full stretch doing three things at once, each of which is a massive task by itself. Cope with huge pressure in non-covid care (e.g. urgent care and care backlogs). Exponentially expand booster vaccination campaign, at top speed, working with local govt partners....And get ready for rapid onset of potentially large numbers of new omicron hospitalised covid patients with very large numbers of staff on omicron related sick absence. Trust leaders, as always, doing all they can to provide best possible care in a very pressured context...Important to understand it's not just hospital trusts beyond full stretch. Same applies to community, mental health and ambulance trusts too. For example, London Ambulance Service is taking c2,500 more calls a day than it usually does alongside significant staff absences...Trust leaders tell us the vast majority of hospitalised covid patients in London are not vaccinated, which they find frustrating. Especially since it prevents their trusts from providing the best possible care to all those who need it, covid and non-covid patients alike"
So it looks like we're heading for a real crisis in early January, but will be over the worst of it by the end of the month. All that can be done at this stage is short-term measures to flatten the curve - but after January omicron, at least, looks manageable.
Part of the problem is that omicron spreads like wildfire in hospitals
https://twitter.com/docsuzy/status/1471521039771439105
Word from the front line trenches: omicron spreads like wildfire. Omicron went from one patient in a ward, to 8 pts and 4 staff infected overnight to 5 wards full (mostly hospital acquired)4 days later. Monday was horrible Tuesday worse.