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Al Fresco at this time of year in this weather. Eh? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageAl Fresco at this time of year in this weather. Eh? – politicalbetting.com

“What is the point of them going to all these posh schools if they don’t think?”

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Test
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    Second, I reckon Frosty's departure is a better theme...
  • What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/
  • Student loans have income-contingent repayments. Could business support during Covid not have the same structure?
  • What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    It is possible but even in the event of indictment, what would actually happen? It is not likely that Trump will face a trial in the foreseeable future. It might even strengthen Trump's political influence by proving to his base that the deep state really is conspiring against him.
  • What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    It is possible but even in the event of indictment, what would actually happen? It is not likely that Trump will face a trial in the foreseeable future. It might even strengthen Trump's political influence by proving to his base that the deep state really is conspiring against him.
    Yeah, he can probably delay until 2024.
  • Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
  • Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    O/T

    Test Match Special is down due to a Covid alert.
  • Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    If the plan is to restrict opening until everyone is boosted, then surely an extension of vaxports down to smaller establishments would be enough.
  • Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    If the plan is to restrict opening until everyone is boosted, then surely an extension of vaxports down to smaller establishments would be enough.
    Would it? I don't know, vaxxed people can get it and spread it and it seems to be growing crazy fast.

    This is kind of "moderately disruptive" setting is what's been missing from the UK covid response. It's always too little too late, and that's how you end up with "nobody can leave their house except for their statutorily permitted walk".
  • AslanAslan Posts: 939

    I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,

    After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.

    Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
  • Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    If the plan is to restrict opening until everyone is boosted, then surely an extension of vaxports down to smaller establishments would be enough.
    Would it? I don't know, vaxxed people can get it and spread it and it seems to be growing crazy fast.

    This is kind of "moderately disruptive" setting is what's been missing from the UK covid response. It's always too little too late, and that's how you end up with "nobody can leave their house except for their statutorily permitted walk".
    "Enough" was perhaps the wrong word but if, as reported, the plan is that these mooted restrictions should last till everyone is boosted, then surely extending vaxports down to smaller establishments would have the equivalent effect in ensuring that only boosted customers can attend. What impact either measure would have on the spread of covid is a separate question.
  • Second, I reckon Frosty's departure is a better theme...

    Lord Frost's resignation could be seismic. As I said on the last thread, he was the Brexit talisman for Conservatives. Now the government will have to think not merely about his replacement but what, fundamentally, it is trying to achieve. How can Northern Ireland's circle be squared? What should our future relationship with the EU be? While Frost was taking care of it, deep thought was not required.

    And as we saw during the May government, when even Conservative Eurosceptics think deeply about Europe, they tend to split.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    Second, I reckon Frosty's departure is a better theme...

    Lord Frost's resignation could be seismic. As I said on the last thread, he was the Brexit talisman for Conservatives. Now the government will have to think not merely about his replacement but what, fundamentally, it is trying to achieve. How can Northern Ireland's circle be squared? What should our future relationship with the EU be? While Frost was taking care of it, deep thought was not required.

    And as we saw during the May government, when even Conservative Eurosceptics think deeply about Europe, they tend to split.
    I don't think I had heard of Lord Frost until yesterday.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    edited December 2021

    What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    At its heart, the story is a very simple one:

    To the tax authorities, Trump said his building was worth [x], and should pay tax based on that figure.

    To lenders, Trump said his building was worth [y], and they should loan him money accordingly.

    Now... if he said to the tax authorities "we have 80% occupancy, and there's the risk given the economic environment that it could go to 70%, so we don't think it should be valued at more than $[x]", and if said to the mortgage company "we have 80% occupancy, and through the cycle occupancy is usually in the low 90s, so you should value it at [y]", then he's OK. He hasn't lied. He's merely "framed" it in two different ways to two different audiences.

    But.

    If he said to the tax man: "occupancy is 55%. it's worth [x]. at best". While saying to lenders "man, demand is through the roof. we have 99% occupancy. [y] is a low number, really, should be much higher."

    Then he's lying to someone. If he's lying to the tax authorities that's tax fraud. And if he's lying to his lenders, that's wire fraud.

    I don't know which it is yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    edited December 2021

    What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    It is possible but even in the event of indictment, what would actually happen? It is not likely that Trump will face a trial in the foreseeable future. It might even strengthen Trump's political influence by proving to his base that the deep state really is conspiring against him.
    It is worth noting, though, that juries have been willing to convict Trump associates.

    People take jury duty pretty seriously. And if the story is a simple one, them he could be in a little bit of trouble.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Test Match Special is down due to a Covid alert.

    Right now, not following the cricket is by far the better option. Except for Australians, of course!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Firstly on topic. Beautiful photograph! But I can’t wait to get out there, splashing about like Peppa Pig.
    But yes seriously, irs very sad for businesses this sneaky hint hint wink wink lockdown that isn’t officially a lockdown 🤬 What’s Sunak going to do to help, he is dragging his feet! He wants to lead the country but he is another fuck business twit?

    Secondly on topic most people likely argue on here today. I have read through everything on here since Frosty The Go Man happened on our Journey. I think I understand what you are all saying: The Committee for Brexit Purity are going to execute Danton. That’s it?
    (Nearly all of you saying this, some, like Big G, still sure resignation got nothing to do with Brexit because not mentioned in resignation letter - which to be fair to Big G I took to mean literally refusing to accept Brexit isn’t done, the sheer horror of the prospect it goes on tearing the Tory Party to shreds🙁 )

    I’m very sorry but it has left me with two questions.

    Firstly, the high ranking UK official who last week told EU negotiating team our key concession, UK will accept European Court Over ruling UK Democracy and Sovereignty (that is yes, we do wish to start down the slippery slope to being a vassal state of yours) was this, or was this not, Frosty the Go Man?

    Secondly, a question for those who voted for Brexit and still support Brexit if I may, does this mean Brexit isn’t over? Brexit is far from done, because from here Brexit means Slash Taxes and Slash Regulation until we are not anything like the European Social Model, or else Brexit is not Brexit and not going to work? 😕
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Richard Rogers has died.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59715838

    Whether you liked his architecture or not, he had a major effect on the built environment of many cities.

    (Personally, I think I prefer Foster's architecture.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    Aslan said:

    I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,

    After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.

    Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
    I'm a Lord Frost fan, but I'm not sure he managed all that.

    Ultimately, the deal that Johnson signed was little different from the deal that May had that was rejected by the DUP. The difference is that Johnson didn't need the DUP, and could say "fuck'em".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    rcs1000 said:

    What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    It is possible but even in the event of indictment, what would actually happen? It is not likely that Trump will face a trial in the foreseeable future. It might even strengthen Trump's political influence by proving to his base that the deep state really is conspiring against him.
    It is worth noting, though, that juries have been willing to convict Trump associates.

    People take jury duty pretty seriously. And if the story is a simple one, them he could be in a little bit of trouble.
    How on Earth does one find twelve Americans, with an unbiased view of Donald Trump?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    It is possible but even in the event of indictment, what would actually happen? It is not likely that Trump will face a trial in the foreseeable future. It might even strengthen Trump's political influence by proving to his base that the deep state really is conspiring against him.
    It is worth noting, though, that juries have been willing to convict Trump associates.

    People take jury duty pretty seriously. And if the story is a simple one, them he could be in a little bit of trouble.
    How on Earth does one find twelve Americans, with an unbiased view of Donald Trump?
    The same was true - though - of a number of people.

    Paul Manafort was Trump's campaign manager. And Trump tweeted a lot of support for him. And the Defence counsel said it was all a witch hunt aimed at getting Trump.

    And the jury convicted.

    I agree the bar is higher - much higher - with Trump himself. But I always find that people take jury service a lot more seriously than one might expect.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    Student loans have income-contingent repayments. Could business support during Covid not have the same structure?

    Some good thinking mate.👍🏻
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    Coming back to Frost's departure - its going to open up a heck of a lot of wounds... the former diplomat/whisky salesman may have papered over cracks that are about to explode in my opinion... it may help BJ once the swivel eyes start to fear that it might be the start of a REMAIN comeback....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    Firstly on topic. Beautiful photograph! But I can’t wait to get out there, splashing about like Peppa Pig.
    But yes seriously, irs very sad for businesses this sneaky hint hint wink wink lockdown that isn’t officially a lockdown 🤬 What’s Sunak going to do to help, he is dragging his feet! He wants to lead the country but he is another fuck business twit?

    Secondly on topic most people likely argue on here today. I have read through everything on here since Frosty The Go Man happened on our Journey. I think I understand what you are all saying: The Committee for Brexit Purity are going to execute Danton. That’s it?
    (Nearly all of you saying this, some, like Big G, still sure resignation got nothing to do with Brexit because not mentioned in resignation letter - which to be fair to Big G I took to mean literally refusing to accept Brexit isn’t done, the sheer horror of the prospect it goes on tearing the Tory Party to shreds🙁 )

    I’m very sorry but it has left me with two questions.

    Firstly, the high ranking UK official who last week told EU negotiating team our key concession, UK will accept European Court Over ruling UK Democracy and Sovereignty (that is yes, we do wish to start down the slippery slope to being a vassal state of yours) was this, or was this not, Frosty the Go Man?

    Secondly, a question for those who voted for Brexit and still support Brexit if I may, does this mean Brexit isn’t over? Brexit is far from done, because from here Brexit means Slash Taxes and Slash Regulation until we are not anything like the European Social Model, or else Brexit is not Brexit and not going to work? 😕

    PS it’s not that because now in borders of Yorkshire I am defending Leeds supporters, but I thought the way the news shows Arsenal rubbing their goals in with the local crowd to be a bit provocative. Provoking out of order response perhaps I add, but nonetheless unnecessaryly asking for some response. Can I say that?
    I’m York City anyway, as that is where Dad took me to football for first time when a was small. I know they are snug in National League North table not threatening to go anywhere last time I looked. 🙂
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    Firstly on topic. Beautiful photograph! But I can’t wait to get out there, splashing about like Peppa Pig.
    But yes seriously, irs very sad for businesses this sneaky hint hint wink wink lockdown that isn’t officially a lockdown 🤬 What’s Sunak going to do to help, he is dragging his feet! He wants to lead the country but he is another fuck business twit?

    Secondly on topic most people likely argue on here today. I have read through everything on here since Frosty The Go Man happened on our Journey. I think I understand what you are all saying: The Committee for Brexit Purity are going to execute Danton. That’s it?
    (Nearly all of you saying this, some, like Big G, still sure resignation got nothing to do with Brexit because not mentioned in resignation letter - which to be fair to Big G I took to mean literally refusing to accept Brexit isn’t done, the sheer horror of the prospect it goes on tearing the Tory Party to shreds🙁 )

    I’m very sorry but it has left me with two questions.

    Firstly, the high ranking UK official who last week told EU negotiating team our key concession, UK will accept European Court Over ruling UK Democracy and Sovereignty (that is yes, we do wish to start down the slippery slope to being a vassal state of yours) was this, or was this not, Frosty the Go Man?

    Secondly, a question for those who voted for Brexit and still support Brexit if I may, does this mean Brexit isn’t over? Brexit is far from done, because from here Brexit means Slash Taxes and Slash Regulation until we are not anything like the European Social Model, or else Brexit is not Brexit and not going to work? 😕

    PS it’s not that because now in borders of Yorkshire I am defending Leeds supporters, but I thought the way the news shows Arsenal rubbing their goals in with the local crowd to be a bit provocative. Provoking out of order response perhaps I add, but nonetheless unnecessaryly asking for some response. Can I say that?
    I’m York City anyway, as that is where Dad took me to football for first time when a was small. I know they are snug in National League North table not threatening to go anywhere last time I looked. 🙂
    pS. I looked. They gave Matlock a one,nil drubbing yesterday 😁
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Just seen the news on Lord Frost. Quite surprising, and a big loss to the government.

    The big question now, is how many other Cabinet members would side with Frost over Johnson, over the general direction of travel? There’s certainly an awful lot of backbenchers holding Frost’s view.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    Andy_JS said:

    Second, I reckon Frosty's departure is a better theme...

    Lord Frost's resignation could be seismic. As I said on the last thread, he was the Brexit talisman for Conservatives. Now the government will have to think not merely about his replacement but what, fundamentally, it is trying to achieve. How can Northern Ireland's circle be squared? What should our future relationship with the EU be? While Frost was taking care of it, deep thought was not required.

    And as we saw during the May government, when even Conservative Eurosceptics think deeply about Europe, they tend to split.
    I don't think I had heard of Lord Frost until yesterday.
    What? Thommo rubs one out over Frosty's gammony fizzog on here every other day.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    This is hilarious:

    Some anti-5G pendants release minor levels of ionising radiation. One gave off the equivalent of five dental X-rays in a single day.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/12/anti-5g-quantum-pendants-are-radioactive/
  • New Allegra tape headache for Boris: No10 braces for fresh embarrassment amid fears ex-spokeswoman Allegra Stratton was questioned about the PM's private life in ANOTHER excerpt from Partygate tape that could be screened in days

    A source told The Mail on Sunday that the recorded sessions included mock questions aimed at Ms Stratton referring to 'mistresses' and 'love children' of Mr Johnson.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324485/New-Allegra-Stratton-tapes-Boris-Johnson-circulation.html

    Drip, drip, drip…

    Johnson has lost the support of the nutter press. Game soon over.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    "Bagehot
    Liz Truss declares an end to the age of introspection
    A new foreign secretary seeks to reshape British diplomacy" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/12/18/liz-truss-declares-an-end-to-the-age-of-introspection
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    ...
  • Are people locking down because they don't want the virus, or locking down because they don't want to isolate if they get the virus.

    Time to remove all restrictions on contact including isolation. Stop trying to prevent the spread of this virus and just allow the vaccines to do their job.

    Destroying businesses to save the lives of antivaxxers isn't OK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    rcs1000 said:

    What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    At its heart, the story is a very simple one:

    To the tax authorities, Trump said his building was worth [x], and should pay tax based on that figure.

    To lenders, Trump said his building was worth [y], and they should loan him money accordingly.

    Now... if he said to the tax authorities "we have 80% occupancy, and there's the risk given the economic environment that it could go to 70%, so we don't think it should be valued at more than $[x]", and if said to the mortgage company "we have 80% occupancy, and through the cycle occupancy is usually in the low 90s, so you should value it at [y]", then he's OK. He hasn't lied. He's merely "framed" it in two different ways to two different audiences.

    But.

    If he said to the tax man: "occupancy is 55%. it's worth [x]. at best". While saying to lenders "man, demand is through the roof. we have 99% occupancy. [y] is a low number, really, should be much higher."

    Then he's lying to someone. If he's lying to the tax authorities that's tax fraud. And if he's lying to his lenders, that's wire fraud.

    I don't know which it is yet.
    It’s Trump. Shouldn’t we consider the possibility he was lying to both of them?
  • Fraser Nelson has published his twitter conversation with Professor Medley on what drives the model making:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    The issue is that they’re not providing any financial support because they’re not *officially* closing restaurants and pubs.

    Which is why it’s not really helpful to frame it int he way you did about ‘no service indoors.’ There’s much more to it than that.

    Of course the Treasury is full of crooks, liars and morons - the IRP is their creation and proved it past all doubt - but even by their low standards this is deeply cynical and unedifying.

    And it’s even worse as it is totally useless in the fight against Covid, where hospitality is not a significant vector of transmission compared to schools, offices and medical settings. They’re being sacrificed to government attempts to ‘control the narrative.’
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    It must have been a hell of a decision trying to decide whether to spend December in Santa Monica or Northallerton.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Surprisingly cold this morning, though I suspect the frost won't last for long.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Fraser Nelson has published his twitter conversation with Professor Medley on what drives the model making:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

    And he still missed the obvious question:

    Who was it that was writing the brief?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    It must have been a hell of a decision trying to decide whether to spend December in Santa Monica or Northallerton.
    Well, not really. Who’d want to have to live in Southern California?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    It's possible to have outdoor seating for pubs in winter but you'd need a lot of those patio heaters which probably wouldn't go down well with environmental campaigners. A lot of city centre places already do.
  • Frost’s resignation is a body blow to Johnson. Johnson has made much of his Brexit sherpa, he elevated him to the Cabinet – in part to stop him leaving government– put him in charge of relations with EU governments, much to the then-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab’s chagrin, and repeatedly praised him as the greatest Frost since the Great Frost of 1709. Frost was meant to act as a sign of the government’s resolve on Brexit-related issues. For him to go while negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol are ongoing is devastating.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lord-frost-s-resignation-is-a-brutal-blow-to-boris-johnson
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607

    Frost’s resignation is a body blow to Johnson. Johnson has made much of his Brexit sherpa, he elevated him to the Cabinet – in part to stop him leaving government– put him in charge of relations with EU governments, much to the then-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab’s chagrin, and repeatedly praised him as the greatest Frost since the Great Frost of 1709. Frost was meant to act as a sign of the government’s resolve on Brexit-related issues. For him to go while negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol are ongoing is devastating.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lord-frost-s-resignation-is-a-brutal-blow-to-boris-johnson

    Brexit is done.

    I'm sure I read that somewhere...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @Cyclefree

    What you are missing is an important point of principle.

    In shutting down the hospitality sector (regardless of whether de jure or de facto) government is taking a massive step beyond the usual bounds of its authority.

    It is important to preserve the principle that this is limited to the minimum necessary. I’m not arguing that what they are doing is right or proportionate, but it is clear that no case can be made for restricting outside activity from a public health perspective.

    It may not be economically rational, in practice, for hospitality to operate but it is important that the private sector makes that decision rather than government bans it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Lead now 411 for Oz.

    Do we think that’s enough for them to win by 350 or will they need a couple more?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Meanwhile Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary who ran against Johnson for the leadership in 2019, is said to be in touch with his former campaign team. He is positioning himself as the “I-told-you-so candidate” and sees himself as being a “John Major” who could come up through the middle. Hunt is seen as a soothing antidote to Liz Truss, the foreign secretary who, like Johnson, is regarded as too maverick.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unloved-by-the-voters-and-his-own-party-boris-johnsons-very-blue-christmas-jxsvpxtfk
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Of the 24 members of David Cameron’s Tory cabinet 5 years ago, only 3 are still in office & only one (Liz Truss) has been in office continuously since May 2016

    Frost is the 47th ministerial resignation related to Brexit

    A revolution devouring its children

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1472458428538839042
  • Aslan said:

    I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,

    After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.

    Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
    Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.

    Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 711
    edited December 2021
    I'm attending an outdoor gathering today with a fire pit.

    Light a fire even in winter. It's lovely.

    p.s. we obviously need tighter restrictions asap.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    Good morning to everyone. Some mist down here in London, too. Cyclefree's misty vista seems to highlight the desolation and urgency of the government's position at the moment in so many areas, including the need to act now to help hospitality businesses, too.

    On the possible Tory successors, as mentioned below, Jeremy Hunt does indeed look a very plausible candidate for the Tories, to me - the anti-Boris.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    The tragedy of @DavidGHFrost and those who think like him is that they can't see that the high tax burden they dislike is in part the result of the hard Brexit they chose 1/4

    That they won't acknowledge that wholesale deregulation - which is why they wanted to leave the EU - is not the Brexit that was sold to millions of Leave voters and not a viable political strategy for the Conservative Party 2/4

    And that they won't face up to the fact that we can walk away from the Northern Ireland Protocol or we can have a zero tariff deal with the EU + good relations with the Biden administration but we can't have both 3/4

    Sooner or later, someone is going to have to face up to these choices rather than resigning when confronted with them 4/4


    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1472352176940929026
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    If the plan is to restrict opening until everyone is boosted, then surely an extension of vaxports down to smaller establishments would be enough.
    Would it? I don't know, vaxxed people can get it and spread it and it seems to be growing crazy fast.

    This is kind of "moderately disruptive" setting is what's been missing from the UK covid response. It's always too little too late, and that's how you end up with "nobody can leave their house except for their statutorily permitted walk".
    "Enough" was perhaps the wrong word but if, as reported, the plan is that these mooted restrictions should last till everyone is boosted, then surely extending vaxports down to smaller establishments would have the equivalent effect in ensuring that only boosted customers can attend. What impact either measure would have on the spread of covid is a separate question.
    The principle that government can not license and restrict ordinary day to day activity is something we should fight hard to protect
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Aslan said:

    I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,

    After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.

    Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
    Eh? You can’t get more white and middle aged than the people inside the big office buildings in Brussels.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Heathener said:

    I'm attending an outdoor gathering today with a fire pit.

    Light a fire even in winter. It's lovely.

    But would you pay to eat food beside it while it’s raining?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607

    Good morning to everyone. Some mist down here in London, too.

    Jeremy Hunt indeed looks to me a very plausible candidate - the anti-Boris.

    There is a Liz Truss puff piece in The Times that makes that point. She is too like BoZo for many people right now
  • Are people locking down because they don't want the virus, or locking down because they don't want to isolate if they get the virus.

    Time to remove all restrictions on contact including isolation. Stop trying to prevent the spread of this virus and just allow the vaccines to do their job.

    Destroying businesses to save the lives of antivaxxers isn't OK.

    It's almost pitiful hearing you whine on. "People aren't going out to party when they are sick with Covid, it's so unfair, what about my liberty"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    What do we reckon about these claims of an incoming Trump indictment?
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067519/

    At its heart, the story is a very simple one:

    To the tax authorities, Trump said his building was worth [x], and should pay tax based on that figure.

    To lenders, Trump said his building was worth [y], and they should loan him money accordingly.

    Now... if he said to the tax authorities "we have 80% occupancy, and there's the risk given the economic environment that it could go to 70%, so we don't think it should be valued at more than $[x]", and if said to the mortgage company "we have 80% occupancy, and through the cycle occupancy is usually in the low 90s, so you should value it at [y]", then he's OK. He hasn't lied. He's merely "framed" it in two different ways to two different audiences.

    But.

    If he said to the tax man: "occupancy is 55%. it's worth [x]. at best". While saying to lenders "man, demand is through the roof. we have 99% occupancy. [y] is a low number, really, should be much higher."

    Then he's lying to someone. If he's lying to the tax authorities that's tax fraud. And if he's lying to his lenders, that's wire fraud.

    I don't know which it is yet.
    I would assume that the written filings are accurate. Verbal comments… well you can’t prove what he said….
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Charles said:

    Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    If the plan is to restrict opening until everyone is boosted, then surely an extension of vaxports down to smaller establishments would be enough.
    Would it? I don't know, vaxxed people can get it and spread it and it seems to be growing crazy fast.

    This is kind of "moderately disruptive" setting is what's been missing from the UK covid response. It's always too little too late, and that's how you end up with "nobody can leave their house except for their statutorily permitted walk".
    "Enough" was perhaps the wrong word but if, as reported, the plan is that these mooted restrictions should last till everyone is boosted, then surely extending vaxports down to smaller establishments would have the equivalent effect in ensuring that only boosted customers can attend. What impact either measure would have on the spread of covid is a separate question.
    The principle that government can not license and restrict ordinary day to day activity is something we should fight hard to protect
    and bankrupting 50% of hospitality venues in the country by issuing impossible orders isn’t doing so?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited December 2021
    Good morning; a greeting, not a comment on the weather.

    I usually agree with Ms Cyclefree, but it is not only hospitality which has been dealt a hammer blow; those retailers for whom Christmas provides a considerable amount of their takings are, am I certain, suffering severe hardship as well. Pictures of empty High Streets tell a gloomy story.
    I appreciate that for her and her daughter the pain is real, immediate and severe, but I suspect (fear) that we shall see many smaller retailers, especially for example, jewellers going to the wall in the next few months.
    Not everyone can set up an on-line business, and few on-line businesses make money immediately!


    @£y auto-correct!
  • Charles said:

    @Cyclefree

    What you are missing is an important point of principle.

    In shutting down the hospitality sector (regardless of whether de jure or de facto) government is taking a massive step beyond the usual bounds of its authority.

    It is important to preserve the principle that this is limited to the minimum necessary. I’m not arguing that what they are doing is right or proportionate, but it is clear that no case can be made for restricting outside activity from a public health perspective.

    It may not be economically rational, in practice, for hospitality to operate but it is important that the private sector makes that decision rather than government bans it

    They haven't (yet) banned it. But the simple truth is that people are locking themselves down. They have Covid, they live with someone who has Covid, or they want to avoid Covid so that they can have Christmas.

    It isn't the government doing this, it's Covid.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    Are people locking down because they don't want the virus, or locking down because they don't want to isolate if they get the virus.

    Time to remove all restrictions on contact including isolation. Stop trying to prevent the spread of this virus and just allow the vaccines to do their job.

    Destroying businesses to save the lives of antivaxxers isn't OK.

    It's almost pitiful hearing you whine on. "People aren't going out to party when they are sick with Covid, it's so unfair, what about my liberty"
    Are you really so ignorant that you still don’t understand many people get a positive result but have no symptoms?
  • King Cole, a fair point, although retail can shift online in a way certain businesses cannot.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Test Match Special is down due to a Covid alert.

    Right now, not following the cricket is by far the better option. Except for Australians, of course!
    We should let Australia go through to the final and focus on playing the runoff series against some other already vanquished team.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    I planned to spend Christmas in California with my family until omicron cases began surging in the UK.

    Does that make me a bad person?
  • moonshine said:

    Are people locking down because they don't want the virus, or locking down because they don't want to isolate if they get the virus.

    Time to remove all restrictions on contact including isolation. Stop trying to prevent the spread of this virus and just allow the vaccines to do their job.

    Destroying businesses to save the lives of antivaxxers isn't OK.

    It's almost pitiful hearing you whine on. "People aren't going out to party when they are sick with Covid, it's so unfair, what about my liberty"
    Are you really so ignorant that you still don’t understand many people get a positive result but have no symptoms?
    Define "many" as a percentage. With a peer-reviewed or at least credible medical source for your percentage.

    "Many people who are positive aren't sick. So they could go out and party. So it's all a lie"

    Hi Piers!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    ydoethur said:

    Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    The issue is that they’re not providing any financial support because they’re not *officially* closing restaurants and pubs.

    Which is why it’s not really helpful to frame it int he way you did about ‘no service indoors.’ There’s much more to it than that.

    Of course the Treasury is full of crooks, liars and morons - the IRP is their creation and proved it past all doubt - but even by their low standards this is deeply cynical and unedifying.

    And it’s even worse as it is totally useless in the fight against Covid, where hospitality is not a significant vector of transmission compared to schools, offices and medical settings. They’re being sacrificed to government attempts to ‘control the narrative.’
    The irony there is that while true of other variants because omicron is so much more transmittable, omicron is probably the first variant where it would make sense to treat hospitality as a place likely to be a vector.

    Not that I actually think you should shut things done as if something is that infectious nothing is going to significantly reduce numbers
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Charles said:

    Does that make me a bad person?

    Are you the chancellor?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    “Like the troubled comic genius Peter Sellers he seems to be only wholly at ease in public when dressing up.” Astute @cazjwheeler on @BorisJohnson preference for dressing up over governing.

    More Mr Benn, than PM.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/762b6e8e-6009-11ec-8ca2-4e56f587e18b?shareToken=82eea8d78622fd66b61cfd67f3e5c3f7 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1472471908633526277/photo/1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    I planned to spend Christmas in California with my family until omicron cases began surging in the UK.

    Does that make me a bad person?
    How could you even think of having all that heat and expense when you could enjoy the fog, short days and excellent transport links in Northallerton?

    (Incidentally, I would choose Northallerton. I didn’t much enjoy my time in California because I’m highly vulnerable to skin cancer so I was (a) nervous and (b) well covered up. But I’m not altogether surprised others feel differently.)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Are people locking down because they don't want the virus, or locking down because they don't want to isolate if they get the virus.

    Time to remove all restrictions on contact including isolation. Stop trying to prevent the spread of this virus and just allow the vaccines to do their job.

    Destroying businesses to save the lives of antivaxxers isn't OK.

    This isn’t about saving antivaxxers.

    It’s a simple question of capacity. We’ve seen mass cancellations of medical appointments to provide capacity for treatment of Covid.

    If you want to preserve the principle that the NHS serves all citizens free at the point of need, then that is the necessary step.

    So it makes sense to try and slow down the rate at which people will become infected. Otherwise demand will exceed capacity and people will suffer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Aslan said:

    I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,

    After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.

    Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
    Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.

    Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!

    As a minister and negotiator, Lord Frost was a spectacular mediocrity who revelled in making UK citizens and businesses less free. Good riddance.

    Can I 'like' this twice? He's caused, AIUI, a great deal to his former employers in Scotland, too!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    It must have been a hell of a decision trying to decide whether to spend December in Santa Monica or Northallerton.
    Well, not really. Who’d want to have to live in Southern California?
    Maybe @rcs1000 has a perspective?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021

    New Allegra tape headache for Boris: No10 braces for fresh embarrassment amid fears ex-spokeswoman Allegra Stratton was questioned about the PM's private life in ANOTHER excerpt from Partygate tape that could be screened in days

    A source told The Mail on Sunday that the recorded sessions included mock questions aimed at Ms Stratton referring to 'mistresses' and 'love children' of Mr Johnson.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324485/New-Allegra-Stratton-tapes-Boris-Johnson-circulation.html

    Drip, drip, drip…

    Johnson has lost the support of the nutter press. Game soon over.
    The Mirror (whether guided by Cummo or otherwise) is handling this cleverly, with lots of time between each revelation to allow for the political ramifications and for it to sink in with the public. They clearly took a punt on the by-election being already lost and knew the time afterwards would be the maximum pressure on the PM.

    The only thing they may not have allowed for is the imminent Christmas breather (although a counter-argument would be that Xmas is a time when families are gathered around the TV with lots of time to discuss the news - previous events during the holiday period - the fall of Ceausescu, the Air France hijack, the Indonesian tsunami - have got lots of attention).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    It must have been a hell of a decision trying to decide whether to spend December in Santa Monica or Northallerton.
    Well, not really. Who’d want to have to live in Southern California?
    Maybe @rcs1000 has a perspective?
    While planning his move to Arizona? :smile: (Although I think that’s his business not him personally.)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Aslan said:

    I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,

    After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.

    Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
    Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.

    Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
    And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.

    Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
  • Charles said:

    Are people locking down because they don't want the virus, or locking down because they don't want to isolate if they get the virus.

    Time to remove all restrictions on contact including isolation. Stop trying to prevent the spread of this virus and just allow the vaccines to do their job.

    Destroying businesses to save the lives of antivaxxers isn't OK.

    This isn’t about saving antivaxxers.

    It’s a simple question of capacity. We’ve seen mass cancellations of medical appointments to provide capacity for treatment of Covid.

    If you want to preserve the principle that the NHS serves all citizens free at the point of need, then that is the necessary step.

    So it makes sense to try and slow down the rate at which people will become infected. Otherwise demand will exceed capacity and people will suffer.
    But Philip wants other people to hurry up and die already so that he and his can have their personal liberty
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    “Like the troubled comic genius Peter Sellers he seems to be only wholly at ease in public when dressing up.” Astute @cazjwheeler on @BorisJohnson preference for dressing up over governing.

    More Mr Benn, than PM.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/762b6e8e-6009-11ec-8ca2-4e56f587e18b?shareToken=82eea8d78622fd66b61cfd67f3e5c3f7 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1472471908633526277/photo/1

    Yes. Peter Sellers is a comparison I've made before.

    He seems particularly to have something in common from the character of "Being There" at the moment, possibly his most interesting film and greatest legacy , from the late '70s.
  • Ryan @ThatRyanChap
    I don’t know [what] is worse, the frame of reference from ministers that the models have to model worse case scenario for decisions making or said ministers/advisers not understanding that.


    https://mobile.twitter.com/ThatRyanChap
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    If the plan is to restrict opening until everyone is boosted, then surely an extension of vaxports down to smaller establishments would be enough.
    Would it? I don't know, vaxxed people can get it and spread it and it seems to be growing crazy fast.

    This is kind of "moderately disruptive" setting is what's been missing from the UK covid response. It's always too little too late, and that's how you end up with "nobody can leave their house except for their statutorily permitted walk".
    "Enough" was perhaps the wrong word but if, as reported, the plan is that these mooted restrictions should last till everyone is boosted, then surely extending vaxports down to smaller establishments would have the equivalent effect in ensuring that only boosted customers can attend. What impact either measure would have on the spread of covid is a separate question.
    The principle that government can not license and restrict ordinary day to day activity is something we should fight hard to protect
    and bankrupting 50% of hospitality venues in the country by issuing impossible orders isn’t doing so?
    Government support is a different question.

    But in general the government should not underwrite equity risk.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    The Times is also reporting that BoZo's big plan to keep the Brexiteers onside is...

    The return of IDS !!!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @Cyclefree

    What you are missing is an important point of principle.

    In shutting down the hospitality sector (regardless of whether de jure or de facto) government is taking a massive step beyond the usual bounds of its authority.

    It is important to preserve the principle that this is limited to the minimum necessary. I’m not arguing that what they are doing is right or proportionate, but it is clear that no case can be made for restricting outside activity from a public health perspective.

    It may not be economically rational, in practice, for hospitality to operate but it is important that the private sector makes that decision rather than government bans it

    They haven't (yet) banned it. But the simple truth is that people are locking themselves down. They have Covid, they live with someone who has Covid, or they want to avoid Covid so that they can have Christmas.

    It isn't the government doing this, it's Covid.
    That’s what I was trying to convey with “de jure or de facto”. I think people are (rationally) making that choice due to isolation rules and government mood music.

    Sorry if that wasn’t clear
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    Does that make me a bad person?

    Are you the chancellor?
    Are you calling me a short-arse?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    moonshine said:

    Are people locking down because they don't want the virus, or locking down because they don't want to isolate if they get the virus.

    Time to remove all restrictions on contact including isolation. Stop trying to prevent the spread of this virus and just allow the vaccines to do their job.

    Destroying businesses to save the lives of antivaxxers isn't OK.

    It's almost pitiful hearing you whine on. "People aren't going out to party when they are sick with Covid, it's so unfair, what about my liberty"
    Are you really so ignorant that you still don’t understand many people get a positive result but have no symptoms?
    Define "many" as a percentage. With a peer-reviewed or at least credible medical source for your percentage.

    "Many people who are positive aren't sick. So they could go out and party. So it's all a lie"

    Hi Piers!
    Happy to help.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-thrives-airways-not-lungs-new-data-asymptomatic-cases-2021-12-15/

    “Infected people who show no symptoms might be contributing significantly to transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, given that they account for 40.5% of confirmed infections worldwide, according to a study published online Tuesday in the journal JAMA Network Open.

    The researchers pooled data from 77 earlier studies involving a total of 19,884 individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections. They found that among infected people in the general community, about 40% were asymptomatic, as were 54% of infected pregnant women, 53% of infected air or cruise travelers, 48% of infected nursing home residents or staff and 30% of infected healthcare workers or hospitalized patients.”

    Note the use of language. Not “mild symptoms”, or “like a cold”. Asymptomatic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    ydoethur said:

    Lead now 411 for Oz.

    Do we think that’s enough for them to win by 350 or will they need a couple more?

    It's going to finish 5 nil, isn't it?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    I planned to spend Christmas in California with my family until omicron cases began surging in the UK.

    Does that make me a bad person?
    How could you even think of having all that heat and expense when you could enjoy the fog, short days and excellent transport links in Northallerton?

    (Incidentally, I would choose Northallerton. I didn’t much enjoy my time in California because I’m highly vulnerable to skin cancer so I was (a) nervous and (b) well covered up. But I’m not altogether surprised others feel differently.)
    At the moment the temperature is in the mid 60s-low 70s. Sunny with low UV…

    I cover up well in SoCal too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited December 2021
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @Cyclefree

    What you are missing is an important point of principle.

    In shutting down the hospitality sector (regardless of whether de jure or de facto) government is taking a massive step beyond the usual bounds of its authority.

    It is important to preserve the principle that this is limited to the minimum necessary. I’m not arguing that what they are doing is right or proportionate, but it is clear that no case can be made for restricting outside activity from a public health perspective.

    It may not be economically rational, in practice, for hospitality to operate but it is important that the private sector makes that decision rather than government bans it

    They haven't (yet) banned it. But the simple truth is that people are locking themselves down. They have Covid, they live with someone who has Covid, or they want to avoid Covid so that they can have Christmas.

    It isn't the government doing this, it's Covid.
    That’s what I was trying to convey with “de jure or de facto”. I think people are (rationally) making that choice due to isolation rules and government mood music.

    Sorry if that wasn’t clear
    It's not just isolation rules (which are unenforced) but the risk of infecting vulnerable members of the family. My eighty something parents are triple jabbed but I wouldn't go near them if I were test positive, even if asymptomatic. Neither would I go near other peoples similarly aged parents.
  • ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm attending an outdoor gathering today with a fire pit.

    Light a fire even in winter. It's lovely.

    But would you pay to eat food beside it while it’s raining?
    Yes.

    I spend much of my time outdoors.

    Really and truly, whilst I know this is people's businesses there's a hierarchy of needs here. Life and Death (covid) takes priority over making money. Temporary assistance during December for the hospitality industry would have been a better response than letting the pandemic run riot which is going to lead to many unnecessary deaths and knock-on effects on other public services including the NHS.

    You can't expect the hard right people (incl. on here) to understand this. They don't believe in society or helping others.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Would this make more sense to people if it was phrased as "restaurants and pubs cannot operate *indoors*"?

    You've got a virus that spreads mainly from people's breath when indoors. If you need to stop it spreading, banning pubs and restaurants from operating *indoors* seems like an obvious move. It also doesn't make sense to ban them from operating outdoors, since it doesn't spread much that way. Making those the rules doesn't mean that you're advocating that everybody go to pubs and restaurants outdoors, and obviously a lot of places will decide there's no point in trying to operate under those conditions, depending on their customers and their climate. But that doesn't mean that those shouldn't be the rules, if (and I know this is somewhat controversial) you think it's important to try to stop the spread.

    The question is what steps mitigate against the airborne spread of covid. Schools and buses are told to keep their windows open. Many pubs and some restaurants have high ceilings: combined with air conditioning (from outside) would that be effective against viral spread? Government ought to be looking (by commissioning research) on how to fight the spread and not just flip-flop between lockdown and openness. The fight against Covid needs to be technological as well as medical.
    I mean sure, there's definitely a lot more they should have been doing, especially with ventilation where they apparently spent the best part of a year fighting the last pandemic. But given where they are, they don't have a system in place to make sure pubs and restaurants are well-ventilated, and just asking them is going to have a limited effect because places will do what they have to to stay in business.

    Right now "inside bad, go outside if you like" is something they can implement fast, and if they're going to make a meaningful attempt to stop omicron spreading (I know there's an argument that it's a lost cause) this seems like the kind of only moderately disruptive/coercive thing they should be doing.
    If the plan is to restrict opening until everyone is boosted, then surely an extension of vaxports down to smaller establishments would be enough.
    Would it? I don't know, vaxxed people can get it and spread it and it seems to be growing crazy fast.

    This is kind of "moderately disruptive" setting is what's been missing from the UK covid response. It's always too little too late, and that's how you end up with "nobody can leave their house except for their statutorily permitted walk".
    "Enough" was perhaps the wrong word but if, as reported, the plan is that these mooted restrictions should last till everyone is boosted, then surely extending vaxports down to smaller establishments would have the equivalent effect in ensuring that only boosted customers can attend. What impact either measure would have on the spread of covid is a separate question.
    The principle that government can not license and restrict ordinary day to day activity is something we should fight hard to protect
    and bankrupting 50% of hospitality venues in the country by issuing impossible orders isn’t doing so?
    Government support is a different question.

    But in general the government should not underwrite equity risk.
    If the government takes somebody's lawful business off them, they should compensate them. That's a well established principle.

    That's also what this lot have been trying to wriggle out of one way and another pretty much since the start.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder which blonde cabinet member leaked this?

    Rishi Sunak planned to spend Christmas in California with his family until omicron cases began surging in the UK, The Telegraph can disclose. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/19/rishi-sunak-drops-californian-christmas-holiday-plans-tackle/

    It must have been a hell of a decision trying to decide whether to spend December in Santa Monica or Northallerton.
    Well, not really. Who’d want to have to live in Southern California?
    Maybe @rcs1000 has a perspective?
    While planning his move to Arizona? :smile: (Although I think that’s his business not him personally.)
    Nothing to do with his income tax rate changing from 12.3% to 4.5%?
  • Glad the government has not ordered a lockdown. Equally glad that Sunak is trying to avoid the fiscal incompetence of bailing out every industry. Pubs and restaurants here in Gloucestershire are still busy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    "Sage seeks 'immediate' curtailment of indoor mixing, putting Christmas gatherings at risk
    Scientific advisers say the Government cannot delay restrictions if it wants to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/18/sage-seeks-immediate-curtailment-indoor-mixing-putting-christmas/
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @Cyclefree

    What you are missing is an important point of principle.

    In shutting down the hospitality sector (regardless of whether de jure or de facto) government is taking a massive step beyond the usual bounds of its authority.

    It is important to preserve the principle that this is limited to the minimum necessary. I’m not arguing that what they are doing is right or proportionate, but it is clear that no case can be made for restricting outside activity from a public health perspective.

    It may not be economically rational, in practice, for hospitality to operate but it is important that the private sector makes that decision rather than government bans it

    They haven't (yet) banned it. But the simple truth is that people are locking themselves down. They have Covid, they live with someone who has Covid, or they want to avoid Covid so that they can have Christmas.

    It isn't the government doing this, it's Covid.
    That’s what I was trying to convey with “de jure or de facto”. I think people are (rationally) making that choice due to isolation rules and government mood music.

    Sorry if that wasn’t clear
    No no, it was clear. I am in full agreement. Whats more if they try to lock us down - especially this side of Christmas - I think there will be mass disobedience, such is the level of trust in the clown car government and Peppa himself.

    People aren't stupid. Anecdotally most people can now see Covid somewhere near them. They have it, or someone they know has it - this is different to a month ago even with the months of 30-40k new cases a day. That was background noise, Covid is now front and centre in people's lived experience.

    Yes there are still the "fuck Covid, I don't care, lets do this" people. An old mate of mine really upset that his team keeps having PL games cancelled because other teams have too many players off. A minority though, and the brainier Corbyn brother saying "burn the MPs" is really helping, as who wants to be associated with that?

    But most people get it. They want Christmas - *need* Christmas. So even if they and theirs aren't sick they are pulling the plug and hiding away so that Christmas happens. Because only a Philip is going to still do Christmas whilst infected to try and kill off Granny.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Lead now 411 for Oz.

    Do we think that’s enough for them to win by 350 or will they need a couple more?

    It's going to finish 5 nil, isn't it?
    Only a lot of rain is going to save England from a 5-0 whitewash.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Lead now 411 for Oz.

    Do we think that’s enough for them to win by 350 or will they need a couple more?

    It's going to finish 5 nil, isn't it?
    Good to see somebody is optimistic.

    England are going to end up backwards in the WTC points given all these negative over rates.

    And I suspect Root's captaincy is finished.
This discussion has been closed.