Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END
Listening to Javid this morning and the nuance of other conversations I believe the public have made a lockdown decision themselves and there is unlikely to be a need for a circuit breaker
The question arises as to whether further financial support will be made but predictable calls this morning by Sadiq Khan for the return of furlough should be resisted
Does anyone really want this, or is it like the fad for 3d televisions?
Facebook wants it, as they want to run the platform. Everyone else, not so much.
Also because they own Oculus and VR has never really taken off.
Is the reason because "Actual Reality" beats "Virtual Reality" at anything more than a novelty level?
Having used all the VR headsets they just aren't that good, also having to use "controllers" totally breaks any immersion. And that's before the issues of motion sickness a lot of people suffer.
AR i am much more bullish on, but again the tech isn't there e.g. Hololens, its too narrow a field of view that it can work.
This is why you shouldn't assume that just because it hasn't got traction, it won't get traction. Like say electric cars it's hard to make it good enough that anyone except enthusiasts will use it, but if you can finally make it good enough with a lot of money and persistence then it could potentially grow very fast.
Perhaps....but there needs to be a huge step change. I have used all the state of the art VR systems, with rigs thats cost $10ks i.e. more than any home user can realistically afford, and its all miles off.
That isn't coming to a living room near you anytime soon. And i am still far from convinced people want it. 3D tv failed because people didn't want to sit at home wearing goggles.
Oh. VR. I have an Oculus. It's excellent. The boxing game is really good and a great workout. Not the same as getting twatted around the head in a ring but really lockdown (edit: not knockdown. Geddit) good.
Other games are quite fun also.
The key statement is exactly this "its not the same as"....the vision for the metaverse is that you are transported into a virtual world that is a believable replacement for the real world.
Surely every six months there will be an improvement.
Nope. There has been limited improvements in the past 5 years. Same with AR. Hololens 2 really isnt that much better than original one.
The rate of improvement compared to many other tech / AI / ML is tortoise pace.
Looks like the "et tu Brute" Froxit is a first step in a pre emptive move by the usual suspects to replace Johnson with one of their own. The point being that Hard Brexit is in danger of collapsing under its own contradictions so there needs to be a more determined attempt to ram through the unworkable before the penny drops and the voters decide to start rowing back.
It is a fanatics answer to the question of Johnson´s future, but I think the rebels do not have sufficent force in the Parliamentary party to make it stick. However they probably do have sufficent force to make a very big mess. The men in the grey suits (and/or white coats) need to get a grip and set some boundaries before the nutters see off yet another Tory leader.
There does come a point when "banging on about Europe" is such an immense turn off that the Tories are simply put out of our misery and we move on to a politics without them.
If voters conclude that the problem is not Johnson, but the Conservative Party, then this could even happen at the next election.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Issues like sick pay are a good example of where the government has completely failed. HMG spent a lot of money on testing people, but didn't change the law to ensure that people could take time off work if they were an infection risk.
This is why you shouldn't assume that just because it hasn't got traction, it won't get traction. Like say electric cars it's hard to make it good enough that anyone except enthusiasts will use it, but if you can finally make it good enough with a lot of money and persistence then it could potentially grow very fast.
Maybe; or maybe not. One comparison (which I steal from Benedict Evans) is that VR might turn out like the internet or smartphones, where the tech got better and better and now everybody uses it; or it might turn out like games consoles, where the tech got better and better but the total market of people who buy them seems to have a relatively low ceiling.
VR i am very much believe its the later category. AR is the one I see being ubiquitous.
I thought it was very revealing when new xbox came out, no VR and Sony, no new VR headset. They release they generational improvements to their consoles, something that happens once every 10 years and VR doesn't really feature.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Issues like sick pay are a good example of where the government has completely failed. HMG spent a lot of money on testing people, but didn't change the law to ensure that people could take time off work if they were an infection risk.
Our sick pay system isn't very good anyway. It's long overdue for proper reform.
Of course, as somebody posted yesterday, they have now made some adjustments to the process.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Issues like sick pay are a good example of where the government has completely failed. HMG spent a lot of money on testing people, but didn't change the law to ensure that people could take time off work if they were an infection risk.
Sick pay is one of the easiest opportunities for levelling up.
Middle class mostly get full pay paid for by employers. Lower paid mostly get pressured into working or unpaid with minimal state support.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The booster is the Omicron vaccine, those double jabbed with their booster rarely have significant Covid symptoms let alone need hospitalisation.
As I said Boris would face a VONC before the end of Jan and be removed and replaced as PM if he tried further circuit breaker/lockdowns
Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
Courtesy is a public choice.
Are you seriously saying it should be a criminal offence for someone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their house and risk infecting others?
Or are you prepared to accept the risk of people spreading respiratory illnesses including coronaviruses, so we're just debating where the line should be drawn?
I didn't say anything about the law. I think that's a red herring.
I've been quite consistent through this pandemic in saying that I don't like the government creating draconian laws on things where it should be showing leadership to encourage people to comply voluntarily. And since I'm willing to comply voluntarily it's the principle of doing the right thing that is more important to me than worrying about whether I am doing so entirely by choice or due to the law.
In your opposition to the law you are lurching to the other extreme of arguing that it's not even necessary to practice good public health behaviours voluntarily. That is my point.
Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
But as soon as we open up it will resume spreading quickly again? If we lockdown for a couple of weeks we might move the peak back a week or so, but what is the point of that?
truss quoted on r4 as saying she likes "carb-heavy lunches and karaoke." Presenter affects to mishear as carp-heavy lunches. My 100/1 shot says yes, my heart and head say jesus f c., she really could be worse than Boris.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove.
As last weeks vaxports vote showed Tory MPs are turning against restrictions and Boris could only get a lockdown through with Labour votes but he would then be swiftly removed as Tory leader by Tory MPs
The current SAGE projection, which they've admitted is designed to be on the worst case end of the scale, does not even warrant action.
3k peak hospitalisation, with everything happening twice as quick (likely quicker in practice) than it did last year, yields total hospital admissions 1/3rd of what happened last year. It's not even close to justifying restrictions.
They're very alike. As we all come into contact with Covid often enough it's likely to become more and more like the common cold as we become more immune to it.
The biggest problem with Covid was our lack of immunity to it. Vaccines and boosters give some immunity. Getting the virus and beating it gives even more immunity. Ideally get the virus after getting your booster and vaccines but we're all going to get it.
That's the only way out. If you have another exit from this madness I'm all ears. But delusions of "stop it spreading" is just living in denial.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
Courtesy is a public choice.
Are you seriously saying it should be a criminal offence for someone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their house and risk infecting others?
Or are you prepared to accept the risk of people spreading respiratory illnesses including coronaviruses, so we're just debating where the line should be drawn?
I didn't say anything about the law. I think that's a red herring.
I've been quite consistent through this pandemic in saying that I don't like the government creating draconian laws on things where it should be showing leadership to encourage people to comply voluntarily. And since I'm willing to comply voluntarily it's the principle of doing the right thing that is more important to me than worrying about whether I am doing so entirely by choice or due to the law.
In your opposition to the law you are lurching to the other extreme of arguing that it's not even necessary to practice good public health behaviours voluntarily. That is my point.
I'm ok with people doing it voluntarily but it should be their choice.
Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END
Actually there could be a silver lining if Boris agrees the new EU proposals on NI and the threat of serving A16 disappears
As various experts have said quoted above, the government no longer has the political capital to survive the inevitable fall-out from taking on the EU so aggressively.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove
Nobody supports lockdown forever
I wouldn't go bail for Christina Pagel and Susan Michie.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove
Nobody supports lockdown forever
Anyone advocating lockdown for as long as Covid exists is supporting that.
There is no exit from Covid. There is only living with it and the best way to live with it is to be immune to it.
Listening to the Mayor of London, he says his Major Incident is based on number of cases, then admits that numbers in hospital are 80% lower than last year.
Which is a completely fallacious argument.
Does anyone have up to date numbers about hospital admissions in London?
I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,
After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.
Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.
Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.
Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
Under the May deal NI remained part of the UK trading zone - the idea that her deal would have caused the upset that abolishing the UK as a trading zone has caused is for the birds.
We gave up sovereignty. Whilst supplicants to the clown car claim that we had gained it. We added vast amounts of regulation, bureaucracy and red tape whist apologists for Peppa claimed we had abolished it.
There is nothing about this government's Brexit deal worth talking up. It does the reverse of what it claims to have done.
Under May’s deal the entire of the UK was stuck in the “backstop” with no plausible way out.
Which was fine as it would have been far less disruptive to businesses and individuals. The last 12 months have confirmed that nobody actually wants this "divergence" in regulations beyond a few Thatcherite hacks in Whitehall. Businesses just want consistency.
Less sovereignty though.
So what. Can I eat "sovereignty"? Can I trade it? Will it keep me afloat when my business goes bust? Or is it just some nebulous concept that means nothing outside of a Tory WhatsApp group?
It’s democratic control back in the hands of the people. Which is where it should be.
I appreciate there always those who would rather kowtow for a few morsels from the table of their lord. But I am not one of them.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove
And yet, the threats cotinue. I don't have the confidence that you do that the opinions of individual ministers are that relevant. They will get led down whatever path the civil service wants to take them.
Listening to the Mayor of London, he says his Major Incident is based on number of cases, then admits that numbers in hospital are 80% lower than last year.
Which is a completely fallacious argument.
Does anyone have up to date numbers about hospital admissions in London?
It's surely about the numbers of health staff off work due to infection or self-isolation?
Quite obviously with a much more easily transmissible variant, hospital workers are being hit hard
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, my thoughts exactly. Twenty races is quite sufficient.
They’re more likely to go for 25 rather than 20 though, as demand to host a race has never been higher and Liberty have paid a fortune for the commercial rights.
The teams have already said that 22 is too many for the mechanics and garage crews, are looking to hire a second shift to alternate races, or start chartering planes. Even the engineers - who fly business class, turn up on Thursday afternooon and leave Sunday evening - say it’s getting too busy.
Surely it doesn't matter how many races, so long as the last one finishes like the "Whacky Races" or "MarioKart64". Apparently the Dick Dastardly stuff and Michael "Donkey Kong" Masi throwing banana skins at competitors make it more of a spectacle.
WWF on wheels!
I get the feeling that the agreement whereby Mercedes dropped their appeal, has a review of the sport’s operation that doesn’t see Mr Masi remain in his post next year.
Those whose job is primarily safety, should not allow themselves to be influenced by the competitors, nor the commercial rights holder.
Companies such as Daimler, McLaren, Ferrari and Aston Martin, are not interested in investing billions of dollars to participate in WWF1.
I note you left Red Bull Racing off your list.
Oh, they’re quite happy with the Wacky Races, so long as they’re near the front. The controversy generates column inches, and just reminds everyone of their fizzy drinks. They don’t have a car brand with a reputation to uphold.
I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,
After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.
Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.
Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.
Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
Under the May deal NI remained part of the UK trading zone - the idea that her deal would have caused the upset that abolishing the UK as a trading zone has caused is for the birds.
We gave up sovereignty. Whilst supplicants to the clown car claim that we had gained it. We added vast amounts of regulation, bureaucracy and red tape whist apologists for Peppa claimed we had abolished it.
There is nothing about this government's Brexit deal worth talking up. It does the reverse of what it claims to have done.
Under May’s deal the entire of the UK was stuck in the “backstop” with no plausible way out.
No plausible way out? But all the Brexiteer Tory MPs insisted there was a techno border solution for Ireland...
Anyway, back to sovereignty. You know the mindset of Tory backbenchers more than I do. Does the abolition of the UK as a trading zone worry any of the people who make claims about how we have gained sovereignty? For the first time in the history of the union between the islands of Britain and Ireland we need paperwork and licenses to trade. Surely that isn't something they think is a gain vs the status quo ante?
Or does Ireland not matter?
A trusted trader solution is the way out.
But May’s deal meant that it was up to the EU if they accepted it or kept us as a rule taker as infinitum.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
People will forgive high death numbers. Well over a hundred thousand have died already. If a few thousand more die more that's a fraction of a statistic if we are honest.
The disruption is causing more damage than primarily antivaxxers snuffing it. And the wave would be over within a few weeks, it already seems to be over in Gauteng.
Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END
Actually there could be a silver lining if Boris agrees the new EU proposals on NI and the threat of serving A16 disappears
As various experts have said quoted above, the government no longer has the political capital to survive the inevitable fall-out from taking on the EU so aggressively.
The one thing Frost did achieve was for the EU to look at the agreement again and propose adjustments and that in itself is sensible
Frost and the 100 plus conservative rebels are hard Brexiteers in the main and they are not living in the real world
It looks like Boris will be in place until the Spring and he should accept the compromise and end threats of A16
Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END
Reaction from a (senior) EU diplomat: “Until now, every British Brexit negotiator has resigned or was sacked. Is it because Brexit is bad for Britain and leaves UK negotiators with the impossible task of squaring the circle?” Ouch. https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1472310341828755460
In fairness, short of dying on the job, surely everyone ends an employment by either resigning or being sacked?
To be even fairer you would have thought they could have found one person that was up to the job.
Not if the job is impossible and self-contradictory
It was the clowns in the job that made it that way though, it did not have to be that way. Incompetent arrogant thick clowns made it impossible.
I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,
After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.
Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.
Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.
Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
Under the May deal NI remained part of the UK trading zone - the idea that her deal would have caused the upset that abolishing the UK as a trading zone has caused is for the birds.
We gave up sovereignty. Whilst supplicants to the clown car claim that we had gained it. We added vast amounts of regulation, bureaucracy and red tape whist apologists for Peppa claimed we had abolished it.
There is nothing about this government's Brexit deal worth talking up. It does the reverse of what it claims to have done.
It’s not fair to call Charles a keyboard warrior but I hadn’t taken him for someone who contradicted someone who clearly knows what the reality is (as it’s part of their day to day job).
January is going to be fun for imports and exports and the person responsible is running away roughly 3 weeks before the complete lack of implementation becomes obvious.
My post was on the narrow point about sovereign. I’m happy to “own” that I don’t know the precise status of implementation planning although given the amount of other stuff the government has had going on over their last 2 years, plus their own background level of competence, I’d assume it’s not as advanced as one might like
I don't consider you to be any kind of warrior, don't worry about that. And ok lets set aside our laughable lack of preparedness for the mass of red tape cost and bureaucracy we are about to impose on ourselves, and talk about sovereignty.
Our Brexit deal cut off part of the UK. We went from being able to trade freely within not just the UK but the CTA, to being able to trade freely within the EEC/EC/EU/EEA to being restricted only to free trade within GB.
Even if we set aside the rest of the CTA for a minute, I now need to apply for an export license and complete paperwork declaring my intentions to move products from our Shepton Mallet warehouse to customers in NI. In our own country. It is far easier to allow a partner based in Dublin to make that trade whereas before Brexit it almost certainly would have been a UK company in the north trading with the whole island.
Brexit lost us sovereignty over our own country. How can you and yours continue to champion the great gains made by your Brexit deal in this area when we have lost our ability to freely trade with ourselves in our own country.
Again, does Ireland not matter? Not the Republic, the North. Because if not - and that is the direct read of what you and your say and do with regards to this matter - then what is sovereignty to you? Sovereignty of what? It isn't of the UK as you ceded part of that. What then?
The people of Northern Ireland have the unilateral right to change their mind. That’s sovereignty.
There is an effective lockdown now for all those sectors dependant on socialising as people try and protect themselves.
Last night:
Well. Am in pub. Live music from a great band. Plenty of people here if not rammed. The atmosphere is wonderful.
Christ! Life is for living. Not cowering. Understand that others may take a different view. But I want to feel ALIVE! I want to bop and dance with a living breathing warm body and smile and laugh and flirt and just be with people.
And yes I have had a drink or two - a very nice Pasion Bobal.
...
Well, place is now full. People are bopping, it is FUCKING awesome!
How quickly the line changes when its required to demand another handout.
What you are missing is an important point of principle.
In shutting down the hospitality sector (regardless of whether de jure or de facto) government is taking a massive step beyond the usual bounds of its authority.
It is important to preserve the principle that this is limited to the minimum necessary. I’m not arguing that what they are doing is right or proportionate, but it is clear that no case can be made for restricting outside activity from a public health perspective.
It may not be economically rational, in practice, for hospitality to operate but it is important that the private sector makes that decision rather than government bans it
I think you are missing my point. Operating outside is not practical in large parts of the country at this time of year. Saying to businesses you can do it and that is why we are not going to help is nonsense.
If businesses have to be closed for public health reasons, fine. But then provide support as happened in 2020.
But don't claim - dishonestly - that there is support (there isn't) or - stupidly- that there is an alternative way of operating.
As I predicted 2 weeks ago, the debate has quickly moved on from Plan B, hardly pausing through if there will be any further tweaks, to when there will be new much harder restrictions.
Now its just the false war of every fraction pretending the inevitable won't happen, who was first to call for exactly what restrictions etc.
Had a lovely Christmas dinner with friends last night, made more merry by our "drink if you mention lockdown" rule.
We all decided it was worth the risk having all got negative LFTs. There were tears at the end - we all know our Hogmanay party won't be going ahead, and there is no such thing as a "circuit breaker" - this is going to be months, not weeks.
I was perhaps the luckiest one there. The two junior Doctors were full of anxiety, and my two friends in travel/hospitality have been looking at their mortgage terms in close detail, starting the process of asking parents for financial help.
I think much of the energy in our cities mentioned by posters above is not an indicator of younger people ignoring what is happening, but a symptom of the experience of last year. Those worried about our behaviour in the months to come will be pleasantly surprised, I reckon. This was just a last hurrah.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
Courtesy is a public choice.
Are you seriously saying it should be a criminal offence for someone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their house and risk infecting others?
Or are you prepared to accept the risk of people spreading respiratory illnesses including coronaviruses, so we're just debating where the line should be drawn?
I didn't say anything about the law. I think that's a red herring.
I've been quite consistent through this pandemic in saying that I don't like the government creating draconian laws on things where it should be showing leadership to encourage people to comply voluntarily. And since I'm willing to comply voluntarily it's the principle of doing the right thing that is more important to me than worrying about whether I am doing so entirely by choice or due to the law.
In your opposition to the law you are lurching to the other extreme of arguing that it's not even necessary to practice good public health behaviours voluntarily. That is my point.
I'm ok with people doing it voluntarily but it should be their choice.
Do you have an objection to that?
I would like our leaders to set a clear direction, rather than hide behind "personal choice". I think there is room for clear public health guidance, making clear that we consider not abiding by certain behaviours should be socially taboo, but I do not think that in general it is required to always creating new criminal offences for everything that we disapprove of.
So my ideal would be not to have it mandated by law, but for it not to be simply left to "personal choice" either.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
Listening to the Mayor of London, he says his Major Incident is based on number of cases, then admits that numbers in hospital are 80% lower than last year.
Which is a completely fallacious argument.
Does anyone have up to date numbers about hospital admissions in London?
Bear in mind that he also declared a Major Incident last year - he's just doing it earlier this time because the disease spreads much more quickly. That doesn't seem intrinsically fallacious, but simply consistent. You could argue that he should never declare one, but it's a technical measure to accelerate cooperation between the different public services beyond the routine level, and that seems justified.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Issues like sick pay are a good example of where the government has completely failed. HMG spent a lot of money on testing people, but didn't change the law to ensure that people could take time off work if they were an infection risk.
Sick pay is one of the easiest opportunities for levelling up.
Middle class mostly get full pay paid for by employers. Lower paid mostly get pressured into working or unpaid with minimal state support.
My mum was a receptionist in a dental surgery. The company she worked for didn't give sick pay which just seemed spectacularly stupid given the opportunities staff have to spread bugs. She took early retirement during the pandemic for this reason.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
People will forgive high death numbers. Well over a hundred thousand have died already. If a few thousand more die more that's a fraction of a statistic if we are honest.
The disruption is causing more damage than primarily antivaxxers snuffing it. And the wave would be over within a few weeks, it already seems to be over in Gauteng.
I think people have forgiven the death numbers to an extent because the government clearly had shown they made an effort to try and reduce deaths throughout this pandemic. With lockdowns, social distancing masks, other restrictions and vaccines. We can question the timing of certain measures when it comes to delaying their implementation and how long they had them in place but they did act.
It's a bit different if they just do nothing and let it rip. It will be perceived by some people that the government sat on its hands and did nothing, that's dangerous to a government and they may not be forgiven for it
Good morning; a greeting, not a comment on the weather.
I usually agree with Ms Cyclefree, but it is not only hospitality which has been dealt a hammer blow; those retailers for whom Christmas provides a considerable amount of their takings are, am I certain, suffering severe hardship as well. Pictures of empty High Streets tell a gloomy story. I appreciate that for her and her daughter the pain is real, immediate and severe, but I suspect (fear) that we shall see many smaller retailers, especially for example, jewellers going to the wall in the next few months. Not everyone can set up an on-line business, and few on-line businesses make money immediately!
Oh I know. And they should get support as well. We are in the same position as we were in March 2020 even with vaccines. So a similar short-term financial package should be put in place for those sectors - not just hospitality - put in place.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
Courtesy is a public choice.
Are you seriously saying it should be a criminal offence for someone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their house and risk infecting others?
Or are you prepared to accept the risk of people spreading respiratory illnesses including coronaviruses, so we're just debating where the line should be drawn?
I didn't say anything about the law. I think that's a red herring.
I've been quite consistent through this pandemic in saying that I don't like the government creating draconian laws on things where it should be showing leadership to encourage people to comply voluntarily. And since I'm willing to comply voluntarily it's the principle of doing the right thing that is more important to me than worrying about whether I am doing so entirely by choice or due to the law.
In your opposition to the law you are lurching to the other extreme of arguing that it's not even necessary to practice good public health behaviours voluntarily. That is my point.
I'm ok with people doing it voluntarily but it should be their choice.
Do you have an objection to that?
I would like our leaders to set a clear direction, rather than hide behind "personal choice". I think there is room for clear public health guidance, making clear that we consider not abiding by certain behaviours should be socially taboo, but I do not think that in general it is required to always creating new criminal offences for everything that we disapprove of.
So my ideal would be not to have it mandated by law, but for it not to be simply left to "personal choice" either.
Surely that's exactly what we got from Whitty this week. Prioritise. Recognise that in the current circumstances it is not possible to have it all. Decide what is important to you and go for it but recognise the more you go for the more risk there is that you will miss out on other things.
I don't really see how a government not inclined to use the heavy hand of the law (which I agree with) can do much more than that.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,
After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.
Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.
Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.
Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
Under the May deal NI remained part of the UK trading zone - the idea that her deal would have caused the upset that abolishing the UK as a trading zone has caused is for the birds.
We gave up sovereignty. Whilst supplicants to the clown car claim that we had gained it. We added vast amounts of regulation, bureaucracy and red tape whist apologists for Peppa claimed we had abolished it.
There is nothing about this government's Brexit deal worth talking up. It does the reverse of what it claims to have done.
Under May’s deal the entire of the UK was stuck in the “backstop” with no plausible way out.
No plausible way out? But all the Brexiteer Tory MPs insisted there was a techno border solution for Ireland...
Anyway, back to sovereignty. You know the mindset of Tory backbenchers more than I do. Does the abolition of the UK as a trading zone worry any of the people who make claims about how we have gained sovereignty? For the first time in the history of the union between the islands of Britain and Ireland we need paperwork and licenses to trade. Surely that isn't something they think is a gain vs the status quo ante?
Or does Ireland not matter?
A trusted trader solution is the way out.
But May’s deal meant that it was up to the EU if they accepted it or kept us as a rule taker as infinitum.
Someone pressed the off-Topic button. A quick flick through the thread will show that my post was about the only post ON-TOPIC!
On topic
Or the fanbois are so grumpy at the prospect of some kind of circuit breaker/lockdown that they are taking out their ire on innocent centrist Remainer posters.
The circuit breaker, should it happen, will take some humble pie consumption by Johnsonian enthusiasts, who having heartily guffawed at the (admittedly poorly executed) circuit breaker in Wales in November 2020 will have to spin it as Johnsonian genius.
If Boris imposes a circuit breaker lockdown, judging by last night's posts the only Boris fanboy left would be BigG
A circuit breaker is only going to be a prelude for a six month lockdown in this scenario.
Boris would lose a VONC amongst Tory MPs well before he got to that
Which is why it will be presented as a circuit breaker, then extended to end of Jan, then another review middle of Feb, etc
What are the realistic conditions where the reasons to go into lockdown no longer apply?
Either we stay open, or we realistically have to wait for an omicron vaccine to be designed, get approval, produced, get enough supply here in another global race for the specific vaccines, and then a 2-3 month roll out.
The realistic conditions are that it peaks soon, starts to decline and doesn't put too many people in hospital for too long.
Well that's what realistically will happen with the virus. But I don't fear the virus, I fear the government, whose actions seem only tangentially related to the likely trajectory of the virus. The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
The only Cabinet Minister who comes close to supporting lockdown forever is Gove.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove
And yet, the threats cotinue. I don't have the confidence that you do that the opinions of individual ministers are that relevant. They will get led down whatever path the civil service wants to take them.
If the civil service always got its way Brexit would never have happened, the civil service serves and advises, politicians decide
Jeremy Corbyn's brother Piers has been arrested for allegedly encouraging people to commit arson by burning down the offices of MPs who support lockdown and vaccines.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
Courtesy is a public choice.
Are you seriously saying it should be a criminal offence for someone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their house and risk infecting others?
Or are you prepared to accept the risk of people spreading respiratory illnesses including coronaviruses, so we're just debating where the line should be drawn?
I didn't say anything about the law. I think that's a red herring.
I've been quite consistent through this pandemic in saying that I don't like the government creating draconian laws on things where it should be showing leadership to encourage people to comply voluntarily. And since I'm willing to comply voluntarily it's the principle of doing the right thing that is more important to me than worrying about whether I am doing so entirely by choice or due to the law.
In your opposition to the law you are lurching to the other extreme of arguing that it's not even necessary to practice good public health behaviours voluntarily. That is my point.
I'm ok with people doing it voluntarily but it should be their choice.
Do you have an objection to that?
I do, in principle. If someone's behaviour unreasonably endangers others (e.g. driving at 200 mph), I din't think it should be up to them to decide on it. You're arguing that the spread of Covid is inevitable and perhaps necessary, so mingling with others even if you have Covid doesn't unreasonably endanger them. That's a different argument.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
If it wasn't the run up to Christmas I think you would have seen different polling.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the UK adult population have already had their boosters and that number is rising everyday. The only deaths rising will be virtually all amongst the unvaccinated and the public will have had enough of cancelling social events and going out and Christmas to protect them.
If you want to avoid the vaccines fine but don't expect everybody else to have to shut down their lives to protect you from serious Omicron effects in return, you will have to lock yourself down instead
Jeremy Corbyn's brother Piers has been arrested for allegedly encouraging people to commit arson by burning down the offices of MPs who support lockdown and vaccines.
Given the amount of arson around he's been doing this was inevitable.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
'However, as we don't have one of them right now...'
I loved that "Acceptable under the circumstances" skit. It was perfect.
Yes, it always cheers me up.
In many ways it was also more convincing than the official Biden campaign vids. He was flawed, quite deeply flawed, but better than the alternative and therefore acceptable, under the circumstances.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
The government can’t win in this situation. If more severe restrictions had been introduced already, the papers would have been full of stories of cancelled Christmases and how horrible is Boris.
I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,
After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.
Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.
Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.
Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
Under the May deal NI remained part of the UK trading zone - the idea that her deal would have caused the upset that abolishing the UK as a trading zone has caused is for the birds.
We gave up sovereignty. Whilst supplicants to the clown car claim that we had gained it. We added vast amounts of regulation, bureaucracy and red tape whist apologists for Peppa claimed we had abolished it.
There is nothing about this government's Brexit deal worth talking up. It does the reverse of what it claims to have done.
Under May’s deal the entire of the UK was stuck in the “backstop” with no plausible way out.
No plausible way out? But all the Brexiteer Tory MPs insisted there was a techno border solution for Ireland...
Anyway, back to sovereignty. You know the mindset of Tory backbenchers more than I do. Does the abolition of the UK as a trading zone worry any of the people who make claims about how we have gained sovereignty? For the first time in the history of the union between the islands of Britain and Ireland we need paperwork and licenses to trade. Surely that isn't something they think is a gain vs the status quo ante?
Or does Ireland not matter?
A trusted trader solution is the way out.
But May’s deal meant that it was up to the EU if they accepted it or kept us as a rule taker as infinitum.
Not forever. Until we decided to leave it.
There was no unilateral exit from the backstop other than abrogating the treaty.
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heartbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
That's from 10 days ago, there's been a lot of covid growth since then.
The Sunday Times also has a poll out today showing voters against further lockdowns and 2019 Tory voters especially so and with a majority Tory government it is Tory voters views which count most for this government
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heartbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heartbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
No it's much prettier than that at the moment with the low sun but it's glorious sunshine and if it wasn't for your comrades in the Tory Party the South of France or Venice or Forence or Palma would be as accessible as Newcastle or Bristol or Aberdeen or even Cumbria.
If it wasn't for Macron it would still be easily accessible for travellers who were vaccinated and had had negative tests
Question for Macron is whether it was worth him breaking the legs of France's winter tourism economy for.
Tourism is 9% of France's economy. UK is 15% of France's Tourism.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
Yes some people will die but the vast majority will be unvaccinated.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK as well as destroying large numbers of small businesses
Do you think we should make it illegal for anyone with a common cold coronavirus to leave their home so they might infect others?
It is common courtesy and basic good public health to encourage a culture whereby people with a respiratory infection stay at home to avoid spreading it to other people.
The Irish government have been running some good ads on this theme, "we're all so glad you didn't come."
I think it’s something we should encourage, but it runs counter to the presenteeism culture ingrained in many of us. For the lucky ones who can work from home, and I can do a fair amount of my job from home, but by no means all, I think we do need to be better at being sick, and behaving sensibly. For others in jobs where it’s not possible that’s going to be harder, and sick pay is not always as good as mine is.
Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heartbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
Has anyone else watched Long Way Up on Apple TV+? Very interesting. Makes me want an electric motorbike!
It's interesting how the Japanese and European OEMs were completely outflanked by HD on electric motorbikes.
I thought about getting an Energica Ego but my MV Agusta years have put me off subscale manufacturers. There is an electric Ducati sports bike coming in 2023 which will probably be a weapon so I'm going to get one of those.
As I predicted 2 weeks ago, the debate has quickly moved on from Plan B, hardly pausing through if there will be any further tweaks, to when there will be new much harder restrictions.
Now its just the false war of every fraction pretending the inevitable won't happen, who was first to call for exactly what restrictions etc.
Which one of your sixty six thousand posts did you predict it in Franny?
Please can you give me your view on hospitalisations and uncertainty for next week? You're the professional modeller and you alway seem to get it right.
I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,
After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.
Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.
Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.
Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
Under the May deal NI remained part of the UK trading zone - the idea that her deal would have caused the upset that abolishing the UK as a trading zone has caused is for the birds.
We gave up sovereignty. Whilst supplicants to the clown car claim that we had gained it. We added vast amounts of regulation, bureaucracy and red tape whist apologists for Peppa claimed we had abolished it.
There is nothing about this government's Brexit deal worth talking up. It does the reverse of what it claims to have done.
Under May’s deal the entire of the UK was stuck in the “backstop” with no plausible way out.
No plausible way out? But all the Brexiteer Tory MPs insisted there was a techno border solution for Ireland...
Anyway, back to sovereignty. You know the mindset of Tory backbenchers more than I do. Does the abolition of the UK as a trading zone worry any of the people who make claims about how we have gained sovereignty? For the first time in the history of the union between the islands of Britain and Ireland we need paperwork and licenses to trade. Surely that isn't something they think is a gain vs the status quo ante?
Or does Ireland not matter?
A trusted trader solution is the way out.
But May’s deal meant that it was up to the EU if they accepted it or kept us as a rule taker as infinitum.
Not forever. Until we decided to leave it.
There was no unilateral exit from the backstop other than abrogating the treaty.
I see Lord frost has resigned, FWIW I am not sure he ever achieved much,,,
After the weakness of May, Lord Frost was the man who secured a proper Brexit and got the EU to back down on all manners of areas. He even got the EU to roll back on its red line that it would never change its own internal law to address Brexit. Amazing that the very arch-Remainers who backed the EU up on that position are now saying Frost was useless as a negotiator.
Of course these are the same people that think less of people for being "white and middle aged". Such talk belies how much they detest the native British majority, or the thought of these people governing the country. Far better for our fate to be determined by those more sophisticated nationalities in Brussels.
Yep. He did such an ace job, and got the EU to yield to our primacy so much that we accepted a deal that broke up the UK as a trading nation.
Having to get an export license and complete customs paperwork to "export" from one part of the UK to the other really is us sticking our newly found sovrinty up the Euro arse. Huzzah!
And if the representatives of NI decide they don’t like that structure they have the ability to overturn it.
Under May’s proposal no one in the UK had that ability
Under the May deal NI remained part of the UK trading zone - the idea that her deal would have caused the upset that abolishing the UK as a trading zone has caused is for the birds.
We gave up sovereignty. Whilst supplicants to the clown car claim that we had gained it. We added vast amounts of regulation, bureaucracy and red tape whist apologists for Peppa claimed we had abolished it.
There is nothing about this government's Brexit deal worth talking up. It does the reverse of what it claims to have done.
It’s not fair to call Charles a keyboard warrior but I hadn’t taken him for someone who contradicted someone who clearly knows what the reality is (as it’s part of their day to day job).
January is going to be fun for imports and exports and the person responsible is running away roughly 3 weeks before the complete lack of implementation becomes obvious.
My post was on the narrow point about sovereign. I’m happy to “own” that I don’t know the precise status of implementation planning although given the amount of other stuff the government has had going on over their last 2 years, plus their own background level of competence, I’d assume it’s not as advanced as one might like
I don't consider you to be any kind of warrior, don't worry about that. And ok lets set aside our laughable lack of preparedness for the mass of red tape cost and bureaucracy we are about to impose on ourselves, and talk about sovereignty.
Our Brexit deal cut off part of the UK. We went from being able to trade freely within not just the UK but the CTA, to being able to trade freely within the EEC/EC/EU/EEA to being restricted only to free trade within GB.
Even if we set aside the rest of the CTA for a minute, I now need to apply for an export license and complete paperwork declaring my intentions to move products from our Shepton Mallet warehouse to customers in NI. In our own country. It is far easier to allow a partner based in Dublin to make that trade whereas before Brexit it almost certainly would have been a UK company in the north trading with the whole island.
Brexit lost us sovereignty over our own country. How can you and yours continue to champion the great gains made by your Brexit deal in this area when we have lost our ability to freely trade with ourselves in our own country.
Again, does Ireland not matter? Not the Republic, the North. Because if not - and that is the direct read of what you and your say and do with regards to this matter - then what is sovereignty to you? Sovereignty of what? It isn't of the UK as you ceded part of that. What then?
The people of Northern Ireland have the unilateral right to change their mind. That’s sovereignty.
We had the same right, it was called Brexit. We said "We're leaving" and the EU said "Of course, that is your right. We would like you to stay, but we cannot make you"
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
We have to balance the damage caused by the virus with the damage to society by lockdowns, which is something experts can't do. It's the job of politicians to do that.
As I see it they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
I guess they'll wait until the hospitals are already full and then apply the restrictions, which is the worst of both worlds but the politically easiest.
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
They aren't now.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
In 2-3 weeks time when hospitalisations are way up, deaths rising, i fully expect the same public to be say why didn't the government introduction restrictions earlier.....we wanted locking down much sooner.
Hospitalisations will not be way up and deaths rising, half the population have already had their boosters and that that number is rising everyday
Even in the most optimistic scenario (i certainly don't believe the we are going to hell in a handcart), but simple maths tells you they will be. If you don't understand this, you don't understand simple statistics.
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
Yes some people will die but the vast majority will be unvaccinated.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK
You sound a bit like Scott n Paste fighting the last war. Restrictions are coming, its just a matter of quite how far they go, when they will be announced and when they will be introduced / for how long.
Increased hospitalisations and deaths are already baked in, even among double and triple jabbed. If when the sombero is finally flatten as a total is very large is a different debate to if we will get at best a short period of time when there will be a significant increase in deaths...and the public will be scared and be pro lockdown.
Comments
The question arises as to whether further financial support will be made but predictable calls this morning by Sadiq Khan for the return of furlough should be resisted
The rate of improvement compared to many other tech / AI / ML is tortoise pace.
It is a fanatics answer to the question of Johnson´s future, but I think the rebels do not have sufficent force in the Parliamentary party to make it stick. However they probably do have sufficent force to make a very big mess. The men in the grey suits (and/or white coats) need to get a grip and set some boundaries before the nutters see off yet another Tory leader.
There does come a point when "banging on about Europe" is such an immense turn off that the Tories are simply put out of our misery and we move on to a politics without them.
If voters conclude that the problem is not Johnson, but the Conservative Party, then this could even happen at the next election.
I thought it was very revealing when new xbox came out, no VR and Sony, no new VR headset. They release they generational improvements to their consoles, something that happens once every 10 years and VR doesn't really feature.
Of course, as somebody posted yesterday, they have now made some adjustments to the process.
Middle class mostly get full pay paid for by employers.
Lower paid mostly get pressured into working or unpaid with minimal state support.
As I said Boris would face a VONC before the end of Jan and be removed and replaced as PM if he tried further circuit breaker/lockdowns
I've been quite consistent through this pandemic in saying that I don't like the government creating draconian laws on things where it should be showing leadership to encourage people to comply voluntarily. And since I'm willing to comply voluntarily it's the principle of doing the right thing that is more important to me than worrying about whether I am doing so entirely by choice or due to the law.
In your opposition to the law you are lurching to the other extreme of arguing that it's not even necessary to practice good public health behaviours voluntarily. That is my point.
Theresa May might be permitted a wry smile...
The common cold != covid.
It's sad this needs saying.
@krishgm
RIP Richard Rogers, whose wonderful buildings are testament to an amazing, inventive, charismatic man. Big loss."
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1472391265152954368
The lockdown-forever lobby seems worryingly influential in government. They're not going to see a circuit breaker as temporary even if presented as such: there will always be reasons for it to be extended.
Impose restrictions to slow the spread so that Health services don't become overwhelmed but that leads to economic, societal and other problems such as Mental Health.
Do nothing and let it rip, thousands could end up in hospital, thousands will die directly from Covid and not from Covid as Health Services get overwhelmed.
Either decision could bring down a government at the next election. People won't forgive the government if they lose their jobs and businesses and are restricted in terms of what they can do. People won't forgive high death numbers and potentially lingering health issues that have ramifications for years to come.
Tough times ahead and whoever is running the government whether that is Boris or someone else at the helm they will be punished for it. It really is a no win situation.
Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Kwarteng etc are all more anti restrictions than Boris, let alone Gove.
As last weeks vaxports vote showed Tory MPs are turning against restrictions and Boris could only get a lockdown through with Labour votes but he would then be swiftly removed as Tory leader by Tory MPs
3k peak hospitalisation, with everything happening twice as quick (likely quicker in practice) than it did last year, yields total hospital admissions 1/3rd of what happened last year. It's not even close to justifying restrictions.
The biggest problem with Covid was our lack of immunity to it. Vaccines and boosters give some immunity. Getting the virus and beating it gives even more immunity. Ideally get the virus after getting your booster and vaccines but we're all going to get it.
That's the only way out. If you have another exit from this madness I'm all ears. But delusions of "stop it spreading" is just living in denial.
Do you have an objection to that?
There is no exit from Covid. There is only living with it and the best way to live with it is to be immune to it.
Listening to the Mayor of London, he says his Major Incident is based on number of cases, then admits that numbers in hospital are 80% lower than last year.
Which is a completely fallacious argument.
Does anyone have up to date numbers about hospital admissions in London?
I appreciate there always those who would rather kowtow for a few morsels from the table of their lord. But I am not one of them.
I don't have the confidence that you do that the opinions of individual ministers are that relevant. They will get led down whatever path the civil service wants to take them.
Quite obviously with a much more easily transmissible variant, hospital workers are being hit hard
The voters in general (as opposed to right-wing Conservatives) are quite enthusiastic about having their freedom taken away, so it should help Boris pick himself up off the floor.
But May’s deal meant that it was up to the EU if they accepted it or kept us as a rule taker as infinitum.
The disruption is causing more damage than primarily antivaxxers snuffing it. And the wave would be over within a few weeks, it already seems to be over in Gauteng.
Frost and the 100 plus conservative rebels are hard Brexiteers in the main and they are not living in the real world
It looks like Boris will be in place until the Spring and he should accept the compromise and end threats of A16
The Prime Minister is hiding from his own backbenchers and failing to lead.
This isn't sustainable. Labour is prepared to put party politics aside and put public health first. https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1472503787860414469
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1472510652640079873
Last night:
Well. Am in pub. Live music from a great band. Plenty of people here if not rammed. The atmosphere is wonderful.
Christ! Life is for living. Not cowering. Understand that others may take a different view. But I want to feel ALIVE! I want to bop and dance with a living breathing warm body and smile and laugh and flirt and just be with people.
And yes I have had a drink or two - a very nice Pasion Bobal.
...
Well, place is now full. People are bopping, it is FUCKING awesome!
How quickly the line changes when its required to demand another handout.
If businesses have to be closed for public health reasons, fine. But then provide support as happened in 2020.
But don't claim - dishonestly - that there is support (there isn't) or - stupidly- that there is an alternative way of operating.
Now its just the false war of every fraction pretending the inevitable won't happen, who was first to call for exactly what restrictions etc.
We all decided it was worth the risk having all got negative LFTs. There were tears at the end - we all know our Hogmanay party won't be going ahead, and there is no such thing as a "circuit breaker" - this is going to be months, not weeks.
I was perhaps the luckiest one there. The two junior Doctors were full of anxiety, and my two friends in travel/hospitality have been looking at their mortgage terms in close detail, starting the process of asking parents for financial help.
I think much of the energy in our cities mentioned by posters above is not an indicator of younger people ignoring what is happening, but a symptom of the experience of last year. Those worried about our behaviour in the months to come will be pleasantly surprised, I reckon. This was just a last hurrah.
'However, as we don't have one of them right now...'
So my ideal would be not to have it mandated by law, but for it not to be simply left to "personal choice" either.
67% of voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants (including 79% of 2019 Tory voters) and 61% oppose not being allowed to meet people outside their household indoors (including 67% of 2019 Tory voters)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/12/14/people-england-remain-opposed-total-ban-indoor-soc
This data is from last week:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/covid-hospital-admissions-increase-london-omicron-b971864.html
I'm just not sure who that would be.
It's a bit different if they just do nothing and let it rip. It will be perceived by some people that the government sat on its hands and did nothing, that's dangerous to a government and they may not be forgiven for it
I don't really see how a government not inclined to use the heavy hand of the law (which I agree with) can do much more than that.
https://news.met.police.uk/news/man-arrested-on-suspicion-of-encouragement-to-commit-arson-439753
On an entirely unrelated note; how about la pizza aux kiwis (happens to be from France)?
If you want to avoid the vaccines fine but don't expect everybody else to have to shut down their lives to protect you from serious Omicron effects in return, you will have to lock yourself down instead
Even with boosters, the best number is low 90% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalisation, while being less effective against infection versus Omicron than Delta. Millions being infected in a very short period will result in a significant uptick in this and thus deaths.
The only debate is how large the increases will be, from quite a lot to massive.
In many ways it was also more convincing than the official Biden campaign vids. He was flawed, quite deeply flawed, but better than the alternative and therefore acceptable, under the circumstances.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
"Why?" asked @Leon on the phone incredulously.
"Simple!" Boris's underling replied. "You're not entitled to any..." He paused for effect. "...Statue-Tory Sick Pay!"
I thank you!
The question now is whether we lose tonight or lose tomorrow morning.
Do your shopping and visiting today while you can.
Even that might not be enough.
https://www.ft.com/content/c1c61ff4-045f-4072-a83a-eaaac3ecd3d9
Tourism is 9% of France's economy.
UK is 15% of France's Tourism.
Introduce another lockdown and Farage wlll return and the Tories will leak votes like a sieve to RefUK. Tory MPs will not back allowing a further lockdown to save a few mainly unvaccinated people from dying if it means they risk seeing a collapse of the Tory vote to RefUK as well as destroying large numbers of small businesses
I thought about getting an Energica Ego but my MV Agusta years have put me off subscale manufacturers. There is an electric Ducati sports bike coming in 2023 which will probably be a weapon so I'm going to get one of those.
Please can you give me your view on hospitalisations and uncertainty for next week? You're the professional modeller and you alway seem to get it right.
Brexit proves we ALWAYS had sovereignty.
Increased hospitalisations and deaths are already baked in, even among double and triple jabbed. If when the sombero is finally flatten as a total is very large is a different debate to if we will get at best a short period of time when there will be a significant increase in deaths...and the public will be scared and be pro lockdown.