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As we await the formal result the latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Yup. Also it's too early for a honeymoon election for the new guy. Objectively it doesn't seem sensible to kick the leader out after 2 years; It has to be better to keep them until late in year 3 or early in year 4, then if the voters seem receptive they can call an election right away, and if it still looks bad they have another year to reorient and see if they can find a new path that the voters like.
    It's why I see Boris leaving in late 2022 with an election in late 2023 (can't be May 2023 as old boundaries and not enough time for tax cuts to be felt).

  • The people who have worked flat out to give the impression that "you can do your shop here" will be reassured that there was no crisis for them to work flat out to fix.

    The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.

    Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
    I don't doubt people have worked hard and I wish governments were as well run as supermarkets.

    But all the claims and predictions about empty supermarkets have been proved false for years all the way back to strawberries.

    Pigs in blankets are only the Christmas manifestation of these scare stories:

    2019 https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/10226655/pigs-in-blankets-shortage-christmas/
    2020 https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/pigs-blankets-shortage-supermarkets-shoppers-19327986
    2021 https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-faces-christmas-without-pigs-in-blankets-as-labor-shortage-hits/

    I predict that next August people will start predicting a pigs in blankets shortage for Christmas 2022.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat.

    And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
    His Paternity leave began at 22:01 yesterday.
  • Sean_F said:

    That's what's so stupid about it all. Had he simply let Paterson take his punishment, this would never have happened.
    But it is undeniably symptomatic of a deeper and more widespread problem in Johnson and his psyche. To lay his current misfortunes at the feet of a single wrong decision seems naive. It is just one of dozens of examples of his unsuitability for high office. Indeed, no matter how bad it was, if the Paterson decision had been a one off then Johnson might well have still won this by election. But it wasn't. Which is why he should be toast.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    North Shropshire will be back to a solid Con seat in 2023/2024 but Conservatives deserved to lose this after their recent behaviour starting with backing that fool Patterson.

    As for Boris I still stand by my prediction that he's stand down next summer'ish.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834

    I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat.

    And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
    This recent reluctance to contest such seats is most odd; you couldn't get more raw than Ian Gow blown up by the IRA, yet a full by-election went ahead. Seeing our usual and traditional democratic process continue despite those who threaten our politics is surely the right way to proceed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Just had a few quid on Steve Baker as next Cons leader.

    Everyone I know who knows him rates him very highly and according to Facebook posts by my ultra Cons friends he is close to the second coming.

    So got to be some kind of chance in there and he's 44s on bf.
  • I assume that’s partly on the back of that embarrassing Penny Mordaunt speech?
    If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
    What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.

    In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
  • HYUFD said:

    Apart from Brexit Boris is not governing from the right but from the centre. It was Partygate which cost him last night not being too right-wing, indeed he needed Labour votes to get vaxports through and is spending more than any Tory PM since Macmillan



    For a lot of non-Tories, Johnson's attacks on basic freedoms and our democratic checks and balances have galvanised them into an anyone but the Tories frame of mind. And there are more non-Tories than Tories. If they are joined by Tories who do not like the economic turn the country is taking, it is going to get very difficult for the government very quickly.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    Really interesting result. Boris won’t get out of 2022 as PM.

    Also note - remember before his big political comeback he lost weight, got a decent haircut and looked smarter? The last couple of videos have shown him to look like he’s just rolled out of bed. Image matters and he looks like he can’t give a shit
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    But it is undeniably symptomatic of a deeper and more widespread problem in Johnson and his psyche. To lay his current misfortunes at the feet of a single wrong decision seems naive. It is just one of dozens of examples of his unsuitability for high office. Indeed, no matter how bad it was, if the Paterson decision had been a one off then Johnson might well have still won this by election. But it wasn't. Which is why he should be toast.
    Straws, camels and all that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834

    I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat. However I've just had a look at their website, and they don't.

    And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
    They won't find him until someone in Number Ten goes to get some milk...
  • eek said:

    An issue someone has just pointed out.

    Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.

    With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.

    Solid competence and professional and personal integrity would be a big step.
  • Doesn't this feel different to you?

    Paterson could just be a black Wednesday moment for the Tories, a pinch point where everything goes horribly wrong thereafter. I did think the inch-high, inch-perfect Sunak would return the Tory doubters to the fold for the next GE, but he too has just ****** on his chips.

    The BBC are under instruction to make light of Conservative travails but ITV (even Ant and Dec) Sky, Chanel 4, 5, and the print media are relentless. And, I don't do much social media, but every day I get a comedy WhatsApp about Partygate, or Boris Johnson or the Conservatives.
    No it doesn't feel different to me, in fact why I was so positive the Lib Dems would win and why I had money on it was that this was the perfect storm of a by-election.

    Not just a mid-term by election, but a midterm by-election when the government has just kicked sand in the face of its supporters (tax rises and restrictions coming back) and the by-election was triggered by scandal with Paterson.

    You couldn't get a much more ideal midterm by-election if you tried. That's why I knew the Lib Dems would win and justifiably so.

    But midterms aren't General Elections. The 2024 General Election isn't going to be centred upon Owen Paterson.
  • Mr. Ed, waiting for a credible alternative might make sense if there were a credible incumbent.

    This is an Honorius situation. Better off rid of him, and sooner rather than later.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Golly, you think pay is always in perfect lockstep with inflation? Can I guess that you are well under 50?
    Unfortunately pay has been in near lockstep with inflation for the last 15 or so years.

    Whether the era or pay rising faster than inflation will return I can but hope.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505

    I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat.

    And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
    Hardball. The Greens and RefUK are down on Wiki page for the pending by-election as having agreed to stand aside, which is why I didn't suggest them.

    But, yes, they are probably the right party in the circumstances to build a broad anti government vote - moreso than the LDs who I can understand being reluctant because of the offence it might cause in GE target seats.

    Putative Green voters elsewhere won't give two figs.
  • Jonathan said:

    Unsurprisingly Labour didn’t win OB&S in 2021, much as they didn’t in 1997. But there was a decent Tory->Lab swing that brings the parties roughly back to where they were in 2005.

    I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
    I don't have a fight, I am not in a party. I wanted the Lib Dems to win last night, but I've not determined who will have my vote in the next General Election.

    In midterm by-elections Labour should be looking to do better than it did in 2005. Just as the Lib Dems did better last night. The fact Labour can't stir past that is weakness not strength.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,676

    True.

    But who is there, and what concrete things do they do, that turn this around for the government?

    A fresh face and a bit of coherence are necessary, but I'm not sure they are sufficient.
    I can't answer the first question, on the second it's easy. Stop partying in lockdown, stop giving away crony contracts and get some more competent advisors. That alone will change things.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Perhaps I’m not old enough but I’m at a loss to understand why Tory MPs are described as being ruthless to their leaders. They wobbled at the knees over May for two years after she sha*t the bed at the 2017 election. They left Major in charge even though it was clear he was leading them to a historic loss. Even IDS was left in too long (two years too long).

    And now we have the grubby spectacle of the MPs pretending to themselves and everyone else that Boris deserves one last chance and can still be a success going forwards.

    They are mad if they wait until after the locals. It’s another chance for lifelong Tory voters to tick a different box rather than just stay away, and once those voters cross the rubicon, they can’t ever be taken for granted again.

    The leadership contenders are the worst of all. We all know that you’re grubby and full of ego and would piss on your firstborn to get into the hot seat. So stop with the faux loyalty and get busy knifing.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Full of cards saying "sorry, we are out of stock of this item"...
    You don't visit supermarkets do you Scott.

    Even twatter has given up pretending that there are empty shelves.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    geoffw said:

    A reminder to govt not to take the electorate for granted. But Helen Morgan unlikely to hold on at a general election.

    Let's hope the North Shropshire CLP suddenly grow some tactical nous, and at the next election, decamp to Shrewsbury to try and dislodge Daniel Kawczynski.

    No, I don't expect they will, either.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,676
    TOPPING said:

    Just had a few quid on Steve Baker as next Cons leader.

    Everyone I know who knows him rates him very highly and according to Facebook posts by my ultra Cons friends he is close to the second coming.

    So got to be some kind of chance in there and he's 44s on bf.

    My punt on Mark Harper looking good too I think.
  • v good question. presume the returning officer has signed the result by now
    Betfair has now paid out.
  • eek said:

    Stockton though has a unique set of circumstances - the infrastructure just doesn't exist to support the new estates and the Tees makes adding that infrastructure incredibly expensive.
    Thats hardly unique, or accurate when the homes are being built in Ingleby or the bottom end of Yarm, or the massive "Darlington Back Lane development. Plenty of space there. But new houses blight existing areas - which is why Tories campaign against them. There isn't any money for new roads. Or schools. Or hospitals. Which are all needed for new homes. So the homes get built and everyone in the area suffers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited December 2021

    Thanks. I'm considering (no more than that) doing a Marathon distance to complete this insanity on Jan 1st or 2nd. It'll probably depend on weather, covid etc. I've never run that far before (have walked it many times, though).

    A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.

    I really admire that sort of insanity. ;)

    edit: and congrats to your wife as well!
    Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop )
    I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
  • I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat. However I've just had a look at their website, and they don't.

    And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
    The Journos have to find him first. Do we know which fridge he is staying in?
  • Solid competence and professional and personal integrity would be a big step.
    I'm not sure there is a worse option currently available on those measures. I think any of them would be an improvement. Even Raab.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752

    The position is objectively difficult for any PM, actually, especially a Conservative one - yes, many of us wouldn't have started from here, and we wouldn't be making the same unforced errors, but the pandemic plus the contradictions of hard Brexit plus the intractability of the refugee issue would make it difficult for any Tory PM. A subtle danger for the Tories is that they conclude the problem is Johnson, rush to replace him with, say, Truss, and find that she sinks in the same way. They can't credibly change leaders twice in one Parliament.
    I'm inclined to Truss staying in her current post - there's still most of the legwork on post-Brexit trade to be done, plus the EU FTA to be sorted and bedded in.

    And especially where we can have a competitive advantage where the EuCo is sclerotic.
  • The people who have worked flat out to give the impression that "you can do your shop here" will be reassured that there was no crisis for them to work flat out to fix.

    The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.

    Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
    Except you missed the fact that I said there wouldn't be issues because companies would work flat out to fix them. I repeatedly said any companies that didn't fix any issues would end up without customers and business as a result, those companies that did fix them would win customers and market share and profit.

    This is the invisible hand in action.

    That the invisible had has worked, that the markets have done their job, that the companies have done their job, is a success for the free market not a failure. The invisible hand works.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,086
    this by @TanyaGold1 is spot on. for years, the Tories have tried to win by-elections by not allowing their candidates to do any media interviews. can you blame voters for saying ‘no, thanks’?

    https://unherd.com/2021/12/the-battle-for-north-shropshire/ https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1471772914383003649/photo/1
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 325
    DougSeal said:

    This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
    The dinner was NOT at the Reform Club (I am a member of the Reform). It was at the Garrick, which, shamefully, does not admit ladies as members.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,669
    MaxPB said:

    I can't answer the first question, on the second it's easy. Stop partying in lockdown, stop giving away crony contracts and get some more competent advisors. That alone will change things.
    Stop unforced errors. It's like watching tennis. It's unwatchable when there are lots of unforced errors. Brilliant when there aren't even though someone loses.

    ATM watching the Tories is like watching a decent tennis player constantly doing much less well through unforced errors. Toe curling. Chap called Tim was bad this way sometimes.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    edited December 2021

    Thats hardly unique, or accurate when the homes are being built in Ingleby or the bottom end of Yarm, or the massive "Darlington Back Lane development. Plenty of space there. But new houses blight existing areas - which is why Tories campaign against them. There isn't any money for new roads. Or schools. Or hospitals. Which are all needed for new homes. So the homes get built and everyone in the area suffers.
    You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.

    Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.

    IMO that is unfair on the FTBs who mainly buy the houses, as they will pick up part of the cost rather than it going through Council Tax.
  • What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.

    In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
    Insofar as Trump had a coherent international policy including the UK, it appeared to be based on him being excited by Brexit. If PM Truss can do a bit of arsecrawling and dangle another visit with King Charles in front of him, Trump might be enticed into another petulant trade war with the EU.
  • Solid competence and professional and personal integrity would be a big step.
    That would narrow the numbers down quite a bit.
  • eek said:

    An issue someone has just pointed out.

    Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.

    With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.

    The problem with Boris is that he’s good at presenting himself superficially as all things for all people but scratch away the surface and he’s not. His sensibilities are London and the shires. His circle largely comes from the same old Tory political elite. People have started to work that one out, now that the sheen is coming off.

    His problem is that his 2019 intake were too junior to really climb the ranks. But a smart politician really keen on levelling up and building on the 2019 foundations would have said that by 2 years into the Parliament they’d be promoting more of the red wall Tories into government. The individuals at the upper echelons of the party are still either remnants from the Cameron generation or speak to traditional Tory stereotypes, by and large.

    If you’re going to build such a diverse coalition as what Boris did in 2019, it’s tricky to keep them all on the bus. Blair did it through promising and delivering (particularly in the 1997-2005 era) economic security. Boris hasn’t had that luck: he’s had a crisis instead. But he could’ve done a lot more to cater to the broad church than he has been doing.
  • Unfortunately pay has been in near lockstep with inflation for the last 15 or so years.

    Whether the era or pay rising faster than inflation will return I can but hope.
    Even worse, if you look at real inflation including house prices and not the sham that is CPI, then pay rises have been below inflation for decades.

    Fantastic for those who bought their homes in the past, not so good for anyone younger than them.

    The only thing worse than inflation, is no inflation it seems.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    geoffw said:

    Percentage shares of the vote from Wiki:

    Note: a 22% drop in turnout compared to the GE with Tory voters both switching to LD and sitting on their hands.
    A reminder to govt not to take the electorate for granted. But Helen Morgan unlikely to hold on at a general election.

    Lib Dems = Omicron
    Cons = Delta
    Labour = Alpha
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    How?
    If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.

    Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.

    The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834

    The problem with Boris is that he’s good at presenting himself superficially as all things for all people but scratch away the surface and he’s not. His sensibilities are London and the shires. His circle largely comes from the same old Tory political elite. People have started to work that one out, now that the sheen is coming off.

    His problem is that his 2019 intake were too junior to really climb the ranks. But a smart politician really keen on levelling up and building on the 2019 foundations would have said that by 2 years into the Parliament they’d be promoting more of the red wall Tories into government. The individuals at the upper echelons of the party are still either remnants from the Cameron generation or speak to traditional Tory stereotypes, by and large.

    If you’re going to build such a diverse coalition as what Boris did in 2019, it’s tricky to keep them all on the bus. Blair did it through promising and delivering (particularly in the 1997-2005 era) economic security. Boris hasn’t had that luck: he’s had a crisis instead. But he could’ve done a lot more to cater to the broad church than he has been doing.
    TLDR: He is (?was) a tactician, not a strategist.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    MaxPB said:

    My punt on Mark Harper looking good too I think.
    What are his wider politics? I’m a bit wary of having a single issue PM to sort out the issue of the day. Tried that with BoJo.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    franklyn said:

    The dinner was NOT at the Reform Club (I am a member of the Reform). It was at the Garrick, which, shamefully, does not admit ladies as members.
    Arghh! Sorry! You are 100% right and I apologise. I should know better. Rushed post. I even had the image of the Garrick in my head. If it makes you feel better one of my bitterest regrets is not accepting an offer from a college friend of mine 20 years ago to put me up for the Reform. I ended up joining the O&C and often sigh whistfully as I wander past your place.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    MattW said:

    You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.

    Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.

    Um, kind of.

    Our local district council (West Oxfordshire) is proposing that the five massive "strategic development sites" in the area will be entirely exempt from Community Infrastructure Levy, because otherwise they would be uneconomic for the builders. (This is trivially disprovable but that's another story.)

    So although the new school places will be funded by the builders, the "and the rest" won't be.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,929
    Someone half-humorously suggested recently that the Tories might soon start polling better in Scotland than England. Council by-election from last night:

    Argyll & Bute: Lomond North - Conservative hold
    based on first preference votes

    Paul Collins (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) – 742 (+11.3%)
    Ken Smith (Scottish National Party) – 459 (+5.0%)
    Mark Irvine (Independent) – 418 (from nowhere)
    Robert MacIntyre (Independent) – 204 (+0.5%)

    Swing: SNP to Conservative 3¼% since 2017 and 5¼% since 2012 and 8¾% since 2007.

    BTW - Boris won't be going anywhere. Tories are always extremely vulnerable when challenged by LibDems in high profile by-elections, even when in opposition, never mind government. I was mildly surprised at how well they did in Old Bexley. The really surprising by-election was Hartlepool. It's when there are big swings to Labour that the Tories will need to worry. They'll regain North Shropshire at the GE. Even so, a bloody nose for Boris, and he's fortunate that we are going into Xmas recess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,291
    edited December 2021
    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    PR would mean we would never have a socialist or even full social democratic Labour majority government ever again too. Even Attlee would not have won a majority under PR in 1945 nor would Wilson in 1966 nor Blair in 1997.

    Hence the trade unions and Corbynites oppose PR as much as the Tory right. It would also see Corbynites split from Labour and form their own party with some of the Tory right joining RefUK who would also win seats under PR.

    However almost every government would include the LDs a la 2010 to 2015
  • Sean_F said:

    That's what's so stupid about it all. Had he simply let Paterson take his punishment, this would never have happened.
    What's even more stupid is that if Paterson had been willing to take his punishment he would still be an MP and would end up in the Lords at some point.

    Instead he has been utterly disgraced and become a synonym for sleazy politicians.

    During the whole grotty plan nobody seems to have wondered what would happen if things didn't go as they wanted.
  • Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
  • Insofar as Trump had a coherent international policy including the UK, it appeared to be based on him being excited by Brexit. If PM Truss can do a bit of arsecrawling and dangle another visit with King Charles in front of him, Trump might be enticed into another petulant trade war with the EU.
    Indeed, but if Trump has form for anything in trade deals, it is ripping them up rather than signing new ones.

    Trump will not save the Tories.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited December 2021
    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    Trump's vote is way more inelastic than Boris. In the USA the republican party could take a shit on every one of their voter's doormats and most would still vote for them.
    That's not the case in the UK.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    Farooq said:

    You mean it would remove their disproportionate advantage.
    Yes. I'm in favour of PR, regardless of party.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    I think there are interesting parallels between Johnson and Corbyn. Corbyn's achievement in 2017 was genuinely astonishing, and unexpected. He still lost, but what a close thing it was. But two years later and events had shown him up for what he was. Combined with the shenanigans over Brexit, and a public that saw Boris as different and fresh (for all that he wasn't really fresh, and definitely isn't different), and the Tories won a resounding victory, and Corbyn was buried.
    Now, two years on (and what a couple of years - no-one could have foreseen covid, or that we would still be grappling with it now after a year of mass vaccination), the shine has come off the turd that is Johnson and the public sees him as he really is. He doesn't give a shit about you and I, the only thing that matters is him being world king and sticking his member into as many blondes as he can. If he stays as leader of the Tories I think they could well be utterly smashed, except it won't quite be 1997 - Scotland will have vast hordes of SNP, and in RUK there will not be enough Labour seats for a majority, so it will inevitably be a coalition or C&S.

    Can the Tories prevent this? Changing the leader is fine, but recent times have shown that too many Tory MP's really haven't changed - they are still the venal, grasping wankers we've always seen. Whenever they are in power too long the shit rises to the top.

    Change the leader, and possibly the Tories might cling on, assuming covid is well on its way to being less serious (not impossible). Is there a charismatic, young Tory who could re-invigorate the party while in power? Or do they need once again to get kicked out to go and have a real hard think about things again...
    This result is not a shock of surprise to anyone who has even a small understanding of history. I think this result though will ensure that there will not be an early election before enactment of the boundary changes.

    So at the next election we will see an outworking of

    - Possible Brexit party unwinding
    - Boundary changes

    These should help the Tories to an extent

    - Unwinding of anti Corbyn vote (stay at home, LDs - back to labour)
    - Unwinding of pro Cornyn vote (Labour to green and fringes stay at home)
    - Tory Sleaze
    - Desire for change

    These should help Labour

    The one main issue that could change his leadership - Labour look locked in to SKS, but Tories could remove Boris if someone else can make the case. Starker doesn't have good personal numbers so if the Tories switched to a better narrative - say Javid and his growing up in a poor area of Bristol above his immigrant parents shop - and if they can get to a point where levelling up is more than a slogan, and is showing some intent - not necessarily spades in the ground as large investment can take years, but masterplan / planning permissions stage would certainly be something that could be sold to voters by incumbent MPs.

    As ever the government hold the cards hence why votes to back to them towards elections.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834
    https://unherd.com/thepost/shropshire-north-marks-the-end-of-the-brexit-era/

    Brexit, it would seem, is no longer Mr Johnson’s ‘safe place.’ It is little remarked upon, but Starmer has managed to free himself of the label of ‘Remainer in chief.’ Just one in four Remain voters believe that the UK re-joining the EU in the next ten years is at all likely. For a leader whose biggest problem when first running for leader was his association with Remain, it is a remarkable fact that only one in five Leave voters think that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party want the UK to rejoin.

    Labour are even beginning to weaponise Brexit. Starmer’s new line, debuted last month, is ‘Make Brexit work’. As time passes and the pandemic (hopefully) recedes, the UK’s continued stuttering economic performance will be harder to blame on lockdown... over a third of Leave voters now feel that the cost of living has been negatively affected by leaving the EU.

    All this is growing evidence that, just as Labour’s acquiescence on Brexit aged badly from 2017 to 2019, Boris Johnson’s Brexit boosterism is more difficult to pull off now than it was in December 2019. Appeals to simple Brexit divisions — tempting as they might become for a beleaguered Prime Minister — are increasingly likely to feel as if they come from a different era of British politics.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Pulpstar said:

    Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop )
    I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
    One good thing in the last few months - races returning. Although even there the silly covid theatre reigns. At a local 10K, where everyone was inside a hall in the build up to the race, they had a wave start to keep people apart OUTSIDE...

    People really do not have a clue about proper risk assessment...
  • MattW said:

    You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.

    Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.

    IMO that is unfair on the FTBs who mainly buy the houses, as they will pick up part of the cost rather than it going through Council Tax.
    I haven't, and it would appear that my experiences on Teesside and on either side of my bit of the Pennines are not indicative of ex mining areas. That they are different isn't a surprise. But with respect to developers funding roads, schools etc if that is true in principle why isn't it done in practice? Paying for the immediate bit of tarmac to tie new estate onto existing road is not remotely the same as funding the new roads needed to cope with the new traffic.
  • HYUFD said:

    Apart from Brexit Boris is not governing from the right but from the centre. It was Partygate which cost him last night not being too right-wing, indeed he needed Labour votes to get vaxports through and is spending more than any Tory PM since Macmillan

    And for all the characterisation of Red Wall Tory voters as right-wing, they were tempted as much by the promise of levelling up and sunlit uplands as Getting Brexit Done at a "stop faffing around and do what we told you" level.

    If the Tories replace Boris with a Spartan-type who goes back to austerity, through choice or otherwise, I think they'll soon find out how welcome that is in Hartlepool (if not North Shropshire).

    As often happens when parties are in a "this isn't working, we must do something" mood, the diagnosis and treatment devised by MPs/activists may not match that of the voters they need to keep/attract.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Um, kind of.

    Our local district council (West Oxfordshire) is proposing that the five massive "strategic development sites" in the area will be entirely exempt from Community Infrastructure Levy, because otherwise they would be uneconomic for the builders. (This is trivially disprovable but that's another story.)

    So although the new school places will be funded by the builders, the "and the rest" won't be.
    If the builders overpaid for the land - surely that's their problem and not the local councils.

  • New data (22-27 Nov) show

    - 60% of respondents took additional measures beyond government guidelines to keep themselves and others safe from #COVID19

    - 29% felt isolation guidance for double-vaccinated people was insufficient to keep the public safe

    http://ow.ly/jymt50HcUtg
    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1471774889380130819?s=20
  • BF have paid.
  • HYUFD said:

    PR would mean we would never have a socialist or even full social democratic Labour majority government ever again too. Even Attlee would not have won a majority under PR in 1945 nor would Wilson in 1966 nor Blair in 1997.

    Hence the trade unions and Corbynites oppose PR as much as the Tory right. It would also see Corbynites split from Labour and form their own party with some of the Tory right joining RefUK who would also win seats under PR.

    However almost every government would include the LDs a la 2010 to 2015
    I think FPTP could be defended when the parties were broader churches. Now that political parties are pretty much only joined by glassy-eyed ideological automata, often on the fringes be that right or left and delivering MPs that mirror that, the prospect of mushy centrism, sometimes a bit more left, sometimes a bit more right, but generally balanced and reflecting the views of the moderate majority, very appealing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,676
    moonshine said:

    What are his wider politics? I’m a bit wary of having a single issue PM to sort out the issue of the day. Tried that with BoJo.
    Bog standard centre right Tory.
  • No it doesn't feel different to me, in fact why I was so positive the Lib Dems would win and why I had money on it was that this was the perfect storm of a by-election.

    Not just a mid-term by election, but a midterm by-election when the government has just kicked sand in the face of its supporters (tax rises and restrictions coming back) and the by-election was triggered by scandal with Paterson.

    You couldn't get a much more ideal midterm by-election if you tried. That's why I knew the Lib Dems would win and justifiably so.

    But midterms aren't General Elections. The 2024 General Election isn't going to be centred upon Owen Paterson.
    As Chancellor Norman Lamont so adroitly observed, the next General Election isn't going to be centred around Black Wednesday.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    Pulpstar said:

    Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop )
    I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
    My fastest 10k is 46 minutes. Mind you that was (checks - oh!) coming up to a decade ago. 2 hour half in 2018.

    My biggest problem has been dialling down the pace for longer distances. I struggled with the first 10k training as I was used to popping out 5k in 20 minutes - I couldn't keep that pace up for 10k, but it seemed unnatural to slow down too.
  • Indeed, but if Trump has form for anything in trade deals, it is ripping them up rather than signing new ones.

    Trump will not save the Tories.
    Oh, I’m not saying he’d save them but the current strain of Toryism (if it can still be called that) is burning through options like Nero with a flamethrower.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,929

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
  • As Chancellor Norman Lamont so adroitly observed, the next General Election isn't going to be centred around Black Wednesday.
    You really think that Owen Paterson and Black Wednesday are in the same league?

    To quote John McEnroe You can not be serious!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,676
    PCR results back in - both positive. My lateral flow barely registers a line now, my wife's is clear. Think we must either have had it for ages already or we got a tiny infection.

    My mum said she's feeling better this morning too, sister reported no symptoms on the video call either. B-i-L seems to be the only one who's got any actual symptoms left.
  • IanB2 said:

    Starmer’s new line, debuted last month, is ‘Make Brexit work’.

    That's better than nothing but I hope and believe it will be upgraded to "unfuck business".
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    MaxPB said:

    I can't answer the first question, on the second it's easy. Stop partying in lockdown, stop giving away crony contracts and get some more competent advisors. That alone will change things.
    Have some joined up policies across government that actually support "build back better" and "levelling up". Sell the levelling up agenda across the South and Sw as a strategy to alleviate pressure on public services.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116

    I think Johnson is potentially far more toxic than Thatcher. There is nothing beyond Johnson himself, whereas with Thatcher there was a coherent philosophy that did deliver meaningful results. Her personal popularity was never her selling point. It is all that Johnson has. And the problem is that he is what he is: a bone idle, lying, self-centred, chancer.

    That's true but the reason she was so toxic were her moral judgements which had little to do with domestic politics. Her love for Pinochet. Her support of Reagan's adventurism in South America. Section 28. Her tacit support for Apartheid in South Africa etc etc No real domestic issues. Those were just par for the course with Tory Governments.
  • Selebian said:

    My fastest 10k is 46 minutes. Mind you that was (checks - oh!) coming up to a decade ago. 2 hour half in 2018.

    My biggest problem has been dialling down the pace for longer distances. I struggled with the first 10k training as I was used to popping out 5k in 20 minutes - I couldn't keep that pace up for 10k, but it seemed unnatural to slow down too.
    I have fallen out of running and switched to walking. Being in lockdown during a week of nice weather has me pining to get back out and restart my efforts. Will be slow and painful. But I will do it.

    My best? 5k 29:30, 10k about an hour and 5. Much slower than many, but I am not and never have been built for running...
  • Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Yes if anything is why Boris is going to fail its that he doesn't seem to be in a hard hat enough, rather than too much.

    If it were up to me, I'd be advising he get cracking on new motorways and plenty of other opportunities for development. He's walking the walk, he doesn't seem to be talking the talk though.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,165
    Have any tory twats been on TV talking about 'listening' to the voters yet? That's generally a sign of terminal decline. cf the last days of Brown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834

    This thread has lost its seat.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    MaxPB said:

    PCR results back in - both positive. My lateral flow barely registers a line now, my wife's is clear. Think we must either have had it for ages already or we got a tiny infection.

    My mum said she's feeling better this morning too, sister reported no symptoms on the video call either. B-i-L seems to be the only one who's got any actual symptoms left.

    Good news and all power to vaccines/prior infection. If we weren't testing would this have affected your life? thats the end point we need to get to.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.

    In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
    Just massively increased drone strikes and eliminated civilian death reporting requirements in the conflicts they were involved in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834
    edited December 2021
    ..
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    I haven't, and it would appear that my experiences on Teesside and on either side of my bit of the Pennines are not indicative of ex mining areas. That they are different isn't a surprise. But with respect to developers funding roads, schools etc if that is true in principle why isn't it done in practice? Paying for the immediate bit of tarmac to tie new estate onto existing road is not remotely the same as funding the new roads needed to cope with the new traffic.
    I think that the cost bit is the wrong way around. A house builder can see how much they will get for a house, and what section 106 money they will have to contribute. This means that rather than FTB paying it is an indirect land tax - the valuation of the land will be lower in the first place.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,765
    Johnson just looks dreadful at the mo. Tired, as the Doctor would say.

    I'm sure there is potential for a recovery as others suggest, but it's no better than 1/3. He's never been a loser before. Christmas will make or break him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Century for Woakes
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,881

    I have fallen out of running and switched to walking. Being in lockdown during a week of nice weather has me pining to get back out and restart my efforts. Will be slow and painful. But I will do it.

    My best? 5k 29:30, 10k about an hour and 5. Much slower than many, but I am not and never have been built for running...
    I've made the opposite journey: my real love is walking, but having a little 'un in the house means I cannot escape for a week at a time. So I switched from walking to running. But I really want to get back to walking. There are a couple of National Trails I've yet to do, and I've always had a hankering to do the coast again...

    The latter needs a year though, so not until the little 'un's fled the nest. Or otherwise it'll be divorce and castration. At best :wink:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834
    Pulpstar said:

    Century for Woakes

    Bad luck for the anti-woakes, then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,242
    MaxPB said:

    My punt on Mark Harper looking good too I think.
    They can't both win. :smile:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    MaxPB said:

    PCR results back in - both positive. My lateral flow barely registers a line now, my wife's is clear. Think we must either have had it for ages already or we got a tiny infection.

    My mum said she's feeling better this morning too, sister reported no symptoms on the video call either. B-i-L seems to be the only one who's got any actual symptoms left.

    Great to hear. Does the PCR say what flavour you have had
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,317
    Congratulations to @Philip_Thompson for his betting last night as the odds flipped back and forth for no rational reason whatsoever. I loved one of Philip's later comments (and I think it had only just completely dawned on him the full grand extent of the nonsense TV and Twitter reporting before even a ballot box had been opened, even though he was successfully exploiting it). It went something along the lines of 'Nobody has a clue do they?'. Excellent job of betting against people reacting to rumours based upon no facts whatsoever.

    I was surprised by people being taken in by Libby Weiner's comments on the 10 o'clock news (looking at you HYUFD), when not all the ballot boxes would have arrived let alone opened at that point.
  • Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    How does a proportional system disproportionately disadvantage anyone? Remove a disproportionate advantage they take for granted, sure.
  • Nigelb said:

    They can't both win. :smile:
    They can both trade odds on though....
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    HYUFD said:

    PR would mean we would never have a socialist or even full social democratic Labour majority government ever again too. Even Attlee would not have won a majority under PR in 1945 nor would Wilson in 1966 nor Blair in 1997.

    Hence the trade unions and Corbynites oppose PR as much as the Tory right. It would also see Corbynites split from Labour and form their own party with some of the Tory right joining RefUK who would also win seats under PR.

    However almost every government would include the LDs a la 2010 to 2015
    Would it though? I suspect the Greens will get a massive boost. And probably then change away from their uber-radical agenda to something more European. The LD Orange Bookers could ally themselves more closely with the Tory wets, whilst the right-wing Tories may not be so comfortable in a centre-right party.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    Yep I have a small company that makes and sells model vehicles. That is in addition to my main career providing consultancy services. There is a bit more obvious paperwork when dealing with the EU but mostly that has been an up front process which is now in place. But as a country we are now removed from vast swathes of present and future rules and regulations on a wider scale outside of commerce which for me is a good thing.

    Of course the economics of this has never for me been the point of it so it is easier for me to claim satisfaction and I would still have pushed for EFTA membership. But like I said, I never expected perfection.
    I see the opposite side, I used to buy models from Europe and now they either don't sell to UK or prices are horrendous due to them having to do all the VAT/customs paperwork etc. Many of the models you couldnot get here or they were hideously expensive due to niche type. An absolute clusterfcuk.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    Good morning Malcolm! How is sunny Scotland this morning?
    Hello Bev, not much sun about today , a bit grey but at least dry and I am very well. I hope you are well. @Beibheirli_C
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    Unfortunately pay has been in near lockstep with inflation for the last 15 or so years.

    Whether the era or pay rising faster than inflation will return I can but hope.
    Total bollocks
This discussion has been closed.