Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Not sure the LDs voting against vaxports will go down that well in North Shropshire, hardly a hotbed of young libertarians
When 79 or more conservatives are voting against that argument looks a bit strange
Most Conservative MPs will still vote for vaxports as will most Labour MPs.
Most LD MPs however will be on the same side as Fox and Tice it seems
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
But if we had planned for this back in the first half of the year when it was already becoming obvious that it would be needed, we could have phased it over a longer period meaning less resource needed, and trained up more people to deliver boosters, overall giving a much lower impact on ongoing services.
What I don't understand about the no-restrictions vaccines-only viewpoint (I'm not attributing this to you) is that its advocates seem very quiet about the increase in healthcare capacity needed to allow endemic covid to exist alongside functional routine medical services. Maybe we will have to "live with it" one day, but what does that mean in terms of permanent jobs delivering vaccines/boosters and increased ICU capacity?
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
No, I think that he will limp on for a while yet, until the next bit of stupidity.
I think Starmer as next PM is looking value. The Tories are not as ruthless as the legend.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Not sure the LDs voting against vaxports will go down that well in North Shropshire, hardly a hotbed of young libertarians
When 79 or more conservatives are voting against that argument looks a bit strange
Most Conservative MPs will still vote for vaxports as will most Labour MPs.
Most LD MPs however will be on the same side as Fox and Tice it seems
So most Conservatives are on the same side as Sturgeon. See how this works?
A little chink of light for all you SAD sufferers out there in PB land. Whilst there is still a week to go to the Winter Solstice, today marked the earliest sunset of the year. Very slowly the evenings will start to lighten from this point forward.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
I think this is location dependent. Looks like sunset tomorrow is four seconds earlier tomorrow than today up here. Not that anyone will notice, of course, but pedants dot com and all.
Apologies, I was working on Lincolnshire time which as you probably know is about .... oooo currently 1727 AD
But point taken.
I'll admit, I only went looking because I was sure the earliest sunset happened here about a week ago. Either way, it's dark dark dark here this time of year.
Still light enough (just) to cut the grass at 5pm here in west Cornwall. Annoyingly, because it's 13 degrees, the grass is still growing.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Some naked opportunism there from the LDs.
Not really. More like a further encouraging sign they've remembered what the "liberal" part of their name actually means.
Clue: the common US usage of a direct synonym for "socially left wing" is completely wrong.
Yes, Toby Young says he's a 'classical liberal' and I think what he's at pains to stress with 'classical' is 'not in the American sense'.
A little chink of light for all you SAD sufferers out there in PB land. Whilst there is still a week to go to the Winter Solstice, today marked the earliest sunset of the year. Very slowly the evenings will start to lighten from this point forward.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
I think this is location dependent. Looks like sunset tomorrow is four seconds earlier tomorrow than today up here. Not that anyone will notice, of course, but pedants dot com and all.
Apologies, I was working on Lincolnshire time which as you probably know is about .... oooo currently 1727 AD
But point taken.
I'll admit, I only went looking because I was sure the earliest sunset happened here about a week ago. Either way, it's dark dark dark here this time of year.
Still light enough (just) to cut the grass at 5pm here in west Cornwall. Annoyingly, because it's 13 degrees, the grass is still growing.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Some naked opportunism there from the LDs.
Not really. More like a further encouraging sign they've remembered what the "liberal" part of their name actually means.
Clue: the common US usage of a direct synonym for "socially left wing" is completely wrong.
Yes, Toby Young says he's a 'classical liberal' and I think what he's at pains to stress with 'classical' is 'not in the American sense'.
People who have "classical liberal" in their Twitter bio are usually fash without the tache.
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
Apparently he meant that 200,000 people have it and that is 20% of the people currently infected with COVID. That would equate to 0.3% of the population with Omicron and 1.5% of the population with COVID.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
No, I think that he will limp on for a while yet, until the next bit of stupidity.
I think Starmer as next PM is looking value. The Tories are not as ruthless as the legend.
It’s not ruthless, just plain sensible. Can this busted flush win for us? Nope. Then why are we hanging around whilst he digs us in a hole.
The decision by the Tory Party to get rid of Boris was made months ago, that’s the people who have been hollowing out his leadership in recent weeks, not opposition party’s.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
No, I think that he will limp on for a while yet, until the next bit of stupidity.
I think Starmer as next PM is looking value. The Tories are not as ruthless as the legend.
It’s not ruthless, just plain sensible. Can this busted flush win for us? Nope. Then why are we hanging around whilst he digs us in a hole.
The decision by the Tory Party to get rid of Boris was made months ago, that’s the people who have been hollowing out his leadership in recent weeks, not opposition party’s.
The main person hollowing out Boris Johnson's leadership has been the man that his wife is married to.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Some naked opportunism there from the LDs.
Not really. More like a further encouraging sign they've remembered what the "liberal" part of their name actually means.
Clue: the common US usage of a direct synonym for "socially left wing" is completely wrong.
Yes, Toby Young says he's a 'classical liberal' and I think what he's at pains to stress with 'classical' is 'not in the American sense'.
There is already a Libertarian party in the US which got 3% in 2016. Young would probably support them
Excellent poll for Starmer. Even some behind the Red Wall must now think honesty's important. I can't see Johnson getting it back either. Once a brand is is soiled I can't think of many examples where it's redeemed itself. In politics I suppose the most recent example is Corbyn.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
The UK has already boosted the vulnerable and France is playing catchup from a much worse position. For the nth time running, you are making a fallacious argument.
South Africa COVID update: Positivity rate hits 31%
- New cases: 13,992 - Average: 20,488 (+1,087) - Positivity rate: 31.0% (+2.1) - In hospital: 6,198 (+635) - In ICU: 420 (+15) - New deaths: 11 - Average: 25 (+1)
The news from South Africa suggests we really ought not to be worrying too much. We are a bit different of course. Probably less natural infection (though more vaccinated) an older population and it's winter here versus summer there.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
I predicted over two weeks ago now that Omicron would be milder, and the evidence slowly builds in support of that.
Meanwhile, and not wanting to go all conspiracy theory, I still haven’t seen anything which supports a significant R-dampening effect of the measures announced last week, nor any metrics to define how close we are/aren’t to the “NHS collapsing”.
Therefore, personally, I would still vote against the measures tomorrow.
As for Boris, he was, is and remains a disgrace, but he will survive this time (even if he loses NS) and the Tories will limp on. And in no way has Keir “sealed the deal”.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Apart the lactose intolerant ones of course...
The lactose content of most hard and aged cheese is low enough for many lactose-intolerant people to eat them. However the moon is actually made of green, ie fresh, cheese so it is not suitable.
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
So there are few options: Javid has no idea what he's doing and has badly mangled the numbers given to him Javid has given us a best guess without knowing how that was calculated Javid is sitting on the knowledge that this is far worse than 2,207 but lets try and keep everyone calm and focused on boosters.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
No, I think that he will limp on for a while yet, until the next bit of stupidity.
I think Starmer as next PM is looking value. The Tories are not as ruthless as the legend.
It’s not ruthless, just plain sensible. Can this busted flush win for us? Nope. Then why are we hanging around whilst he digs us in a hole.
The decision by the Tory Party to get rid of Boris was made months ago, that’s the people who have been hollowing out his leadership in recent weeks, not opposition party’s.
The main person hollowing out Boris Johnson's leadership has been the man that his wife is married to.
We never agree Farooq! The line was holding until that video was leaked. Then bang!
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
So there are few options: Javid has no idea what he's doing and has badly mangled the numbers given to him Javid has given us a best guess without knowing how that was calculated Javid is sitting on the knowledge that this is far worse than 2,207 but lets try and keep everyone calm and focused on boosters.
Infection numbers are largely meaningless, whatever the number.
The only interesting numbers are current/projected hospitalisations, ICUs, and mortality.
Sky News are leading with the headline that Javid says Omicron is now infecting 200,000 people a day in the UK.
I wasn't watching and I can't see this figure mentioned anywhere else. Did he really say that?!
Yes.... remember throughout the pandemic it is always thought cases are 3-4x official test numbers and they are backward looking. This is the HSA model that as of today the rate is now at 200k new infections per say.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Some naked opportunism there from the LDs.
Not really. More like a further encouraging sign they've remembered what the "liberal" part of their name actually means.
Clue: the common US usage of a direct synonym for "socially left wing" is completely wrong.
Yes, Toby Young says he's a 'classical liberal' and I think what he's at pains to stress with 'classical' is 'not in the American sense'.
People who have "classical liberal" in their Twitter bio are usually fash without the tache.
He is right that there is a fundamental difference between British and American Libertarianism. The UK version is much closer to the old 19th century liberalism whilst the US version is more of the Tea party variety. Guns and God.
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
So there are few options: Javid has no idea what he's doing and has badly mangled the numbers given to him Javid has given us a best guess without knowing how that was calculated Javid is sitting on the knowledge that this is far worse than 2,207 but lets try and keep everyone calm and focused on boosters.
The percentage is not really out of line with the other figures that have been stated, given that it's estimated to be doubling in 2-3 days, which means about a factor of 8 in a week (it would mean 2.5% a week ago). A million people infected with COVID is consistent with the ONS estimates of 1.5-2% of the population (bearing in mind that positive test results are only a fraction of infections and that it takes longer than a week to clear the infection).
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
So there are few options: Javid has no idea what he's doing and has badly mangled the numbers given to him Javid has given us a best guess without knowing how that was calculated Javid is sitting on the knowledge that this is far worse than 2,207 but lets try and keep everyone calm and focused on boosters.
Infection numbers are largely meaningless, whatever the number.
The only interesting numbers are current/projected hospitalisations, ICUs, and mortality.
But projected hozzies need projected infections as an input.
Sky News are leading with the headline that Javid says Omicron is now infecting 200,000 people a day in the UK.
I wasn't watching and I can't see this figure mentioned anywhere else. Did he really say that?!
Yes.... remember throughout the pandemic it is always thought cases are 3-4x official test numbers and they are backward looking. This is the HSA model that as of today the rate is now at 200k new infections per say.
And remember its only a model...
Yes I'm just surprised Javid said it as the real figure. I thought the Gov't have always denied this.
I like ZOE which I follow fairly closely. They're estimating 84,000 a day at the moment.
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
So there are few options: Javid has no idea what he's doing and has badly mangled the numbers given to him Javid has given us a best guess without knowing how that was calculated Javid is sitting on the knowledge that this is far worse than 2,207 but lets try and keep everyone calm and focused on boosters.
Infection numbers are largely meaningless, whatever the number.
The only interesting numbers are current/projected hospitalisations, ICUs, and mortality.
But projected hozzies need projected infections as an input.
Sure, but the gross infection number is meaningless to the general public (and MPs).
Sky News are leading with the headline that Javid says Omicron is now infecting 200,000 people a day in the UK.
I wasn't watching and I can't see this figure mentioned anywhere else. Did he really say that?!
Yes.... remember throughout the pandemic it is always thought cases are 3-4x official test numbers and they are backward looking. This is the HSA model that as of today the rate is now at 200k new infections per say.
And remember its only a model...
Yes I'm just surprised Javid said it as the real figure. I thought the Gov't have always denied this.
I like ZOE which I follow fairly closely. They're estimating 84,000 a day at the moment.
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
So there are few options: Javid has no idea what he's doing and has badly mangled the numbers given to him Javid has given us a best guess without knowing how that was calculated Javid is sitting on the knowledge that this is far worse than 2,207 but lets try and keep everyone calm and focused on boosters.
Infection numbers are largely meaningless, whatever the number.
The only interesting numbers are current/projected hospitalisations, ICUs, and mortality.
But projected hozzies need projected infections as an input.
An infection number with no context as to trend is meaningless though, just a bit scary number to scare the thick little people as far as the government are concerned.
Testing volumes are going up quicker than cases at the moment, so unless it is incredibly poorly targetted, it's very hard to see how the infection level can be rising much overall.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
But if we had planned for this back in the first half of the year when it was already becoming obvious that it would be needed, we could have phased it over a longer period meaning less resource needed, and trained up more people to deliver boosters, overall giving a much lower impact on ongoing services.
What I don't understand about the no-restrictions vaccines-only viewpoint (I'm not attributing this to you) is that its advocates seem very quiet about the increase in healthcare capacity needed to allow endemic covid to exist alongside functional routine medical services. Maybe we will have to "live with it" one day, but what does that mean in terms of permanent jobs delivering vaccines/boosters and increased ICU capacity?
I would certainly agree that one thing we could learn from this is to have a permanent vaccine arm of the NHS separate from the rest. They would do all the routine vaccinations from childhood onwards including seasonal flu vaccines. The trouble is that under the current funding arrangements that would not be popular with GPs as they make a not insignificant amount of their income from the flu vaccine season.
That's what he said, but according to the Guardian it's been "clarified" as: "Javid was indeed referring to Omicron infections, not Covid infections. But he was speaking about a UK Health Security Agency estimate for the total number of people currently infected with Omicron, not the number who are catching the infection for the first time every day (ie daily new cases)."
There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of omicron in the UK. The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000
Sorry if he meant there were now 200,000 covid cases he really should have said that. He doesn't. There is NO reference to Covid generally; his last reference is to Omicron. So you HAVE to take Javid's statement that there are 200,000 Omicron cases a day - not Covid. His subsequent "While omicron represents more than 20% of cases in England, we have already seen it rise to over 44% in London, and we expect it to become the dominant covid-19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours." doesn't change that. He's badly mangled the record to the point of meaninglessness.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government, building next election win, that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as flu jabs, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
Which kind of misses the fact that there have been continual vaccinations going on ever since last winter. First and second jabs for everyone, followed by and overlapping with jabs for schoolkids - many of whom are still only on their first jab - and then boosters. Certainly our local vaccination centre has never stopped.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Some naked opportunism there from the LDs.
Not really. More like a further encouraging sign they've remembered what the "liberal" part of their name actually means.
Clue: the common US usage of a direct synonym for "socially left wing" is completely wrong.
Yes, Toby Young says he's a 'classical liberal' and I think what he's at pains to stress with 'classical' is 'not in the American sense'.
People who have "classical liberal" in their Twitter bio are usually fash without the tache.
He is right that there is a fundamental difference between British and American Libertarianism. The UK version is much closer to the old 19th century liberalism whilst the US version is more of the Tea party variety. Guns and God.
Yep, but what Tobe is stressing here is that he aint no US style 'liberal', ie like the woke Dems. He's not a liberal in that sense. He's more of a John Stuart Mill type of thinker. That's as HE sees it, is what I mean. I'm personally not equating him with John Stuart Mill.
That's what he said, but according to the Guardian it's been "clarified" as: "Javid was indeed referring to Omicron infections, not Covid infections. But he was speaking about a UK Health Security Agency estimate for the total number of people currently infected with Omicron, not the number who are catching the infection for the first time every day (ie daily new cases)."
Hey Chrissy
What would you do right now. You're PM with a huge majority that will vote for whatever you say.
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k new (all covid variants) infections per day, based on a model, that has throughout the pandemic been roughly 3x higher than official case numbers. If that is accurate or not, is another matter.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government, building next election win, that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
What a downer of a post. I can tell you have never been to Peppa Pig World.
Stumbled on this interesting read from Sept 2020 on why South Africa was experiencing lower death rates compared to countries in Europe back then during that early wave. Even mentions them seeing 'milder illness' and looks at factors why this might be the case:
There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of omicron in the UK. The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000
Sorry if he meant there were now 200,000 covid cases he really should have said that. He doesn't. There is NO reference to Covid generally; his last reference is to Omicron. So you HAVE to take Javid's statement that there are 200,000 Omicron cases a day - not Covid. His subsequent "While omicron represents more than 20% of cases in England, we have already seen it rise to over 44% in London, and we expect it to become the dominant covid-19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours." doesn't change that. He's badly mangled the record to the point of meaninglessness.
Yes.
That's exactly what Sky News is reporting him to have said
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
On the second you're being entirely unreasonable. The boosters were expanded but they explicitly said they would stick with the priority regimen. So yes as a thirty nine year old my eligibility was only accepted on the weekend but that wasn't because they had no plan to implement ... It is because they quite rightly stuck with the plan of jabbing those who were older and vulnerable first.
It makes no sense to be vaccinating not vulnerable 39 year olds before all 49 or 59 year olds have been done first. That's sticking with the plan and if you look at the by age breakdown chart @CarlottaVance shared earlier it's worked.
Not only has the UK done double the booster jabs that any other comparable nation, but they've gone to the right people.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government building next election win that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
And what is Starmerism?
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
Thatcher was charismatic, she was certainly not dull.
Though yes some dull PMs and leaders do OK, Attlee too of course and John Howard in Australia and Merkel in Germany, all dull as dishwater but competent and effective.
Albeit some dull leaders end up disasters eg Hollande in France or final years Major and Brown and May
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k (all covid) infections.
That is NOT what Sky News are reporting.
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
Well that is nonsense. Think about it logically. That would mean a million new cases a day now. That juat isn't possible. Also, although they only sequence a small percentage, we woild be getting 10ks of omicron cases being reported by that stat.
Its basically case numbers x3-4....which is what today 60k, times be 3, thats basically your 200k.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as flu jabs, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
Which kind of misses the fact that there have been continual vaccinations going on ever since last winter. First and second jabs for everyone, followed by and overlapping with jabs for schoolkids - many of whom are still only on their first jab - and then boosters. Certainly our local vaccination centre has never stopped.
Postcode lottery anecdote I guess, but our vaccination centres seemed to wind down August/September with boosters etc delivered just via GPs in early autumn. School vaccination programme literally didn't start in September or October. Walk-in vaccination centre for under 18s opened at the end of October 40 miles away (we were there on the first day I think). When booster booking opened up in November it was all for GP surgery appointments and not until late December - at the beginning of December some one-day special centres started opening in our town again.
We live in a fairly remote area, but I think this might be typical for those not living near larger urban centres.
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k (all covid) infections.
That is NOT what Sky News are reporting.
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
Well that is nonsense. Think about it logically. That would mean a million new cases a day now. That juat isn't possible.
Its basically case numbers x3-4....which is what today 60k, times be 3, thats basically your 200k.
I assume that it was a slip of the tongue, and he meant that the boffins are estimating a total of 200,000 Covid infections per day. All the cases confirmed by test, plus substantial numbers where tests aren't taken or reported, including a great many asymptomatic ones.
Stumbled on this interesting read from Sept 2020 on why South Africa was experiencing lower death rates compared to countries in Europe back then during that early wave. Even mentions them seeing 'milder illness' and looks at factors why this might be the case:
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
Did someone elect the JCVI to government. It's the govt's responsibility. They can do what they want. They are advised by scientists and the JCVI but they make the decisions.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
Our politics has become rather degraded - as have we - if the necessary attributes for being PM are now the same as for winning Celebrity Big Brother.
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
Thatcher was charismatic, she was certainly not dull.
Possibly and I know what you mean but she famously had no sense of humour. She wasn't frothy or light-hearted by any stretch. A very serious person.
Perhaps she should be put in a category all of her own. You probably know that I rate her the greatest PM of my lifetime, even though I profoundly disagree with much of what she stood for.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government building next election win that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
And what is Starmerism?
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
Calm down mate, think of your blood pressure 👍🏻
Totally agree with you Socialism is a busted flush in 21st century. That’s why I’m a Lib Dem. 🙂
But I do agree with all the Financial Times editorials, UK Capitalism needs a reset and we aren’t getting that from the current myopic Tories, are we?
If Starmer wins the next election within a year Boris will do a Trump and say 'miss me yet', as Trump now does after his loss last year to Biden
If he throws away an 80-seat majority at the next election, do you imagine the Conservative Party being inclined to give Boris Johnson another go in 2029?
If Starmer wins the next election within a year Boris will do a Trump and say 'miss me yet', as Trump now does after his loss last year to Biden
If he throws away an 80-seat majority at the next election, do you imagine the Conservative Party being inclined to give Boris Johnson another go in 2029?
Trump now leads a number of polls v Biden for 2024.
Churchill lost heavily in 1945 but came back to win another term as PM in 1951. Berlusconi lost and won again multiple times in Italy.
It was of course Boris who won that 80 seat majority in the first place, stranger things have happened
Comments
Most LD MPs however will be on the same side as Fox and Tice it seems
What I don't understand about the no-restrictions vaccines-only viewpoint (I'm not attributing this to you) is that its advocates seem very quiet about the increase in healthcare capacity needed to allow endemic covid to exist alongside functional routine medical services. Maybe we will have to "live with it" one day, but what does that mean in terms of permanent jobs delivering vaccines/boosters and increased ICU capacity?
I think Starmer as next PM is looking value. The Tories are not as ruthless as the legend.
- New cases: 13,992
- Average: 20,488 (+1,087)
- Positivity rate: 31.0% (+2.1)
- In hospital: 6,198 (+635)
- In ICU: 420 (+15)
- New deaths: 11
- Average: 25 (+1)
See how this works?
What will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
16 entries so far.
You're being petulant.
(as we did testing in Spring 2020)
The decision by the Tory Party to get rid of Boris was made months ago, that’s the people who have been hollowing out his leadership in recent weeks, not opposition party’s.
I notice on the same thread we have Baker getting a bit 'intense' too - urging people all across the land to join his "New Movement For Freedom".
Stevo Stevo Stevo ...
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
I predicted over two weeks ago now that Omicron would be milder, and the evidence slowly builds in support of that.
Meanwhile, and not wanting to go all conspiracy theory, I still haven’t seen anything which supports a significant R-dampening effect of the measures announced last week, nor any metrics to define how close we are/aren’t to the “NHS collapsing”.
Therefore, personally, I would still vote against the measures tomorrow.
As for Boris, he was, is and remains a disgrace, but he will survive this time (even if he loses NS) and the Tories will limp on. And in no way has Keir “sealed the deal”.
Javid has no idea what he's doing and has badly mangled the numbers given to him
Javid has given us a best guess without knowing how that was calculated
Javid is sitting on the knowledge that this is far worse than 2,207 but lets try and keep everyone calm and focused on boosters.
Sky News are leading with the headline that Javid says Omicron is now infecting 200,000 people a day in the UK.
I wasn't watching and I can't see this figure mentioned anywhere else. Did he really say that?!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-cases-omicron-latest-today-b1975243.html
The only interesting numbers are current/projected hospitalisations, ICUs, and mortality.
https://news.sky.com/
p.s. thanks
And remember its only a model...
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
What a yawn Starmer is. He's no Corbyn, but he's not Prime Ministerial material either.
I like ZOE which I follow fairly closely. They're estimating 84,000 a day at the moment.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I don't watch them in fact. It's their website. But I know what you mean
Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
·
2h
South Africa has daily Omicron cases with least daily deaths since May 2020. Need a week to get deaths/case.
The latest outbreak of Omicron daily cases starts near zero. It is beautifully Gompertz with J(t) becoming a dropping straight-line blue line).
He is a bit dreary but tbh this really isn't the time for someone light-hearted and frivolous. Oh wait ...
Testing volumes are going up quicker than cases at the moment, so unless it is incredibly poorly targetted, it's very hard to see how the infection level can be rising much overall.
And that's all we get.
"Javid was indeed referring to Omicron infections, not Covid infections.
But he was speaking about a UK Health Security Agency estimate for the total number of people currently infected with Omicron, not the number who are catching the infection for the first time every day (ie daily new cases)."
There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of omicron in the UK. The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000
Sorry if he meant there were now 200,000 covid cases he really should have said that. He doesn't. There is NO reference to Covid generally; his last reference is to Omicron. So you HAVE to take Javid's statement that there are 200,000 Omicron cases a day - not Covid. His subsequent "While omicron represents more than 20% of cases in England, we have already seen it rise to over 44% in London, and we expect it to become the dominant covid-19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours." doesn't change that. He's badly mangled the record to the point of meaninglessness.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government, building next election win, that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
What would you do right now. You're PM with a huge majority that will vote for whatever you say.
What's the plan.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53998374
That's exactly what Sky News is reporting him to have said
On the second you're being entirely unreasonable. The boosters were expanded but they explicitly said they would stick with the priority regimen. So yes as a thirty nine year old my eligibility was only accepted on the weekend but that wasn't because they had no plan to implement ... It is because they quite rightly stuck with the plan of jabbing those who were older and vulnerable first.
It makes no sense to be vaccinating not vulnerable 39 year olds before all 49 or 59 year olds have been done first. That's sticking with the plan and if you look at the by age breakdown chart @CarlottaVance shared earlier it's worked.
Not only has the UK done double the booster jabs that any other comparable nation, but they've gone to the right people.
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
Though yes some dull PMs and leaders do OK, Attlee too of course and John Howard in Australia and Merkel in Germany, all dull as dishwater but competent and effective.
Albeit some dull leaders end up disasters eg Hollande in France or final years Major and Brown and May
Has the engine just cut out on the doodlebug and we're waiting for impact.
Its basically case numbers x3-4....which is what today 60k, times be 3, thats basically your 200k.
I am reporting what Sky News are saying Javid said. I'm not the Health Secretary, sadly.
We live in a fairly remote area, but I think this might be typical for those not living near larger urban centres.
Which is why I queried it on here as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately Francis seems to think it was me making the statement in the House of Commons.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
Perhaps she should be put in a category all of her own. You probably know that I rate her the greatest PM of my lifetime, even though I profoundly disagree with much of what she stood for.
Totally agree with you Socialism is a busted flush in 21st century. That’s why I’m a Lib Dem. 🙂
But I do agree with all the Financial Times editorials, UK Capitalism needs a reset and we aren’t getting that from the current myopic Tories, are we?
It was Chris thay said "you need to think", not me.
Oh yes indeedy.
Churchill lost heavily in 1945 but came back to win another term as PM in 1951. Berlusconi lost and won again multiple times in Italy.
It was of course Boris who won that 80 seat majority in the first place, stranger things have happened