Schools in England should not be closing early for Christmas unless they have been told it is “necessary” on public health grounds, the British government has said.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman indicated that schools would be kept open unless there is an “absolute public health emergency”, PA reports.
So, expect schools to close from Wednesday then.
Schools close on Friday anyway. I have absolutely no worries that they're going to close early, that's simply not happening.
But if they think of not reopening them in the new year I'd be furious.
Though we're keeping ours off school for the first week back anyway. Taking them on holiday and I don't feel remotely guilty about it, they've been buggered about with for two years now by this hokey-cokey, they can have a week on holiday instead.
Have you asked for leave or are you just doing it anyway.
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
Tbh it seems like so many of the models we have seen so far, my favourite being a circuit breaker will save anywhere between 600 and 109,000 lives in the next 3 months.....when with no vaccines and it ripped through the population, we hadn't had 50k dearhs in 6 months. The thought two weeks of lockdown could save 100k lives in 12 weeks is so laughable those people shouldn't be anywhere near mathematical modelling for the government.
Tom Whipple @whippletom Someone at UKHSA does need to clarify the claim by Javid that there are 200k daily Omicron infections. Given they're also saying it isn't even dominant - ie there are a lot more delta- it implies we might as well pack up now and give up on the NHS...
Government sources now doubling down on @sajidjavid's 200,000 new Omicron cases a day claim.
Just to emphasise the implications: The Health Secretary said in his *very next sentence* that this was 20% of UK cases.
A question: what is the status of the Nichtingale Hospitals? Are they all mothballed or returned to other uses?
If the government was really worried about large numbers of hospitalisations, then I'd expect them to be getting them ready for action - if only in a preliminary manner/
They have no staff. They never had any staff.
They were a PR stunt, that's all.
They were a contingency plan. For the dying. Stick them on a ventilator and sedate them. Minimise staff.
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
Tbh it seems like so many of the models we have seen so far, my favourite being a circuit breaker will save anywhere between 600 and 109,000 lives in the next 3 months.....when with no vaccines and it ripped through the population, we hadn't had 50k dearhs in 6 months. The thought two weeks of lockdown could save 100k lives in 12 weeks is so laughable those people shouldn't be anywhere near mathematical modelling for the government.
Tom Whipple @whippletom Someone at UKHSA does need to clarify the claim by Javid that there are 200k daily Omicron infections. Given they're also saying it isn't even dominant - ie there are a lot more delta- it implies we might as well pack up now and give up on the NHS...
Government sources now doubling down on @sajidjavid's 200,000 new Omicron cases a day claim.
Just to emphasise the implications: The Health Secretary said in his *very next sentence* that this was 20% of UK cases.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
It makes absolutely no sense....
200k a day omicron today, it’s doubling every 2-3 days.
That implies 6.4million infections a day in 10-15 days.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
I cannot see that entry on their Covid feed. Have they perhaps taken it down?
No, still there when I refresh. As of 2053. Or 7 minutes before two bells in the evening watch.
Schools in England should not be closing early for Christmas unless they have been told it is “necessary” on public health grounds, the British government has said.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman indicated that schools would be kept open unless there is an “absolute public health emergency”, PA reports.
So, expect schools to close from Wednesday then.
Schools close on Friday anyway. I have absolutely no worries that they're going to close early, that's simply not happening.
But if they think of not reopening them in the new year I'd be furious.
Though we're keeping ours off school for the first week back anyway. Taking them on holiday and I don't feel remotely guilty about it, they've been buggered about with for two years now by this hokey-cokey, they can have a week on holiday instead.
Have you asked for leave or are you just doing it anyway.
Just doing it.
Haven't decided whether I'll tell them this week, or call them on the first day back and leave a voicemail.
A question: what is the status of the Nichtingale Hospitals? Are they all mothballed or returned to other uses?
If the government was really worried about large numbers of hospitalisations, then I'd expect them to be getting them ready for action - if only in a preliminary manner/
They have no staff. They never had any staff.
They were a PR stunt, that's all.
They were a contingency plan. For the dying. Stick them on a ventilator and sedate them. Minimise staff.
Maybe. And tbf in the early days there were bound to be some blind alleys. So I take it back.
Those with only 2 doses don't have zero protection. Omicron evades antibodies well, but not t-cells. And those with only 2 doses are much more likely to be in demographics with low intrinsic risk anyway. If you gave a million 25 year olds Omicron, you wouldn't get 5000 on ventilators even with no vaccines, and we have loads of vaccines with 95% antibody (and therefore t-cell) coverage.
Unfortunately, we have an unknown number of figure with no vaccine protection at all. Some of these might have achieved immunity via infection while others might have simply been able to evade earlier versions of the virus but might not be so lucky with Omicron.
Some of these unvaccinated people are going to contract Omicron and while, as we've said, for the vast majority, it's mild for the older unvaccinated it's a real risk. Again, do we have any sense of the numbers?
We know there are older unvaccinated people - shouldn't we be focusing all our efforts on getting this group to have one vaccine rather than piling up boosters for those who, by your definition, are statistically unlikely to have a problem with Omicron?
The cynic might argue it looks good for the Government to boast high booster vaccination numbers but shouldn't the effort be getting into some communities where anti-vaccination rhetoric has taken root and challenge that and get those who have so far eschewed the vaccination to take it?
I have some well-connected and prestigious friends who had lunch with Keir recently.
They left impressed by his tenacity on the internal clean-up job after Corbyn’s disastrous tenure (apparently something of personal mission given Keir’s family circumstances), but not at all convinced he has yet figured out a vision, let alone one he can sell to middle Britain.
Oh, and apparently Keir and Sir Ed are in regular contact. The tacit alliance is live and kicking.
Not wanting to be especially contentious, but what are his plans to finish the clean-up job?
I’m not enough of a Labour Kremlinologist to adjudge whether it is complete or not, but I do feel that stain of anti-semitism has evaporated.
Keir’s main internal issue these days must be with Angela Rayner, but my informant assured me she would STFU with Labour’s improving ratings.
I won't believe Labour is truly serious about dealing with left wing racism until Diane Abbott is kicked out the party.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
It makes absolutely no sense....
200k a day omicron today, it’s doubling every 2-3 days.
That implies 6.4million infections a day in 10-15 days.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
I cannot see that entry on their Covid feed. Have they perhaps taken it down?
No, still there when I refresh. As of 2053. Or 7 minutes before two bells in the evening watch.
I have some well-connected and prestigious friends who had lunch with Keir recently.
They left impressed by his tenacity on the internal clean-up job after Corbyn’s disastrous tenure (apparently something of personal mission given Keir’s family circumstances), but not at all convinced he has yet figured out a vision, let alone one he can sell to middle Britain.
Oh, and apparently Keir and Sir Ed are in regular contact. The tacit alliance is live and kicking.
Not wanting to be especially contentious, but what are his plans to finish the clean-up job?
I’m not enough of a Labour Kremlinologist to adjudge whether it is complete or not, but I do feel that stain of anti-semitism has evaporated.
Keir’s main internal issue these days must be with Angela Rayner, but my informant assured me she would STFU with Labour’s improving ratings.
I won't believe Labour is truly serious about dealing with left wing racism until Diane Abbott is kicked out the party.
I haven't seen Starmer's speech yet. Was it that bad?
I've just watched it. Starmer was sober, smart and statesmanlike, addressing "the nation" as if he was PM. Of course it wasn't exciting. But he had a good dig at BJ, without being explicit, by saying "I know the British people will follow the rules as they have done for the last two years" (subtext - unlike Boris and his cronies). Included the customary appeal to patriotism - it's corny, but it needs to be done.
All in all, a decent address to the nation that will do him no harm at all.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
I cannot see that entry on their Covid feed. Have they perhaps taken it down?
No, still there when I refresh. As of 2053. Or 7 minutes before two bells in the evening watch.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
It makes absolutely no sense....
200k a day omicron today, it’s doubling every 2-3 days.
That implies 6.4million infections a day in 10-15 days.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
At the moment pub owners are getting zero support even as their bookings melt away.
If the government mandates something then their will have to be financial relief.
Unless they view hospitality as expendable - like the oil and gas industry.
Hospitality is totally expendable, apparently. To be fair, joins a loooong list under this government.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
At the moment pub owners are getting zero support even as their bookings melt away.
If the government mandates something then their will have to be financial relief.
Unless they view hospitality as expendable - like the oil and gas industry.
Hospitality is totally expendable, apparently. To be fair, joins a loooong list under this government.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
I cannot see that entry on their Covid feed. Have they perhaps taken it down?
No, still there when I refresh. As of 2053. Or 7 minutes before two bells in the evening watch.
Beg pardon, I was referring to the general politics feed. I can only grovel and plead it's easy to mix them up these days.
No need to apologise. I notice though that 'your' Graun feed has now been closed for the day. They've (probably inadvertently) left it with about as much clarity as the ending of No Time To Die.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
At the moment pub owners are getting zero support even as their bookings melt away.
If the government mandates something then their will have to be financial relief.
Unless they view hospitality as expendable - like the oil and gas industry.
Hospitality is totally expendable, apparently. To be fair, joins a loooong list under this government.
I owe Boris Johnson an apology.
He wasn't lying when he said 'Fuck business.'
I rather think the SG is waiting on the UKG to make decisions on furlough etc - a non-devolved general issue with furlough money coming direct from HMT.
If I was a new entrant to the next Con Leader/Next PM markets I'd be laying Sajid Javid like Boris Johnson lays his mistresses.
Total limp non entity of a chancellor. Came in as the new skeptical health secretary and already gone native. What a shame.
Must admit I thought PB was having one of its moments earlier over the now infamous 200k/day claim. It now seems like it’s moronic, innumerate and reckless of Javid. As you say, it was a welcome change having him arrive into the job, but he has been disappointing of late.
A question: what is the status of the Nichtingale Hospitals? Are they all mothballed or returned to other uses?
If the government was really worried about large numbers of hospitalisations, then I'd expect them to be getting them ready for action - if only in a preliminary manner/
They have no staff. They never had any staff.
They were a PR stunt, that's all.
They were a contingency plan. For the dying. Stick them on a ventilator and sedate them. Minimise staff.
The initial thought was that Covid was predominately a lung disease, requiring oxygen. In reality it is a very complex multisystem inflammatory disorder with renal, blood pressure and clotting issues as much as respiratory.
It is too complex a condition to be managed in such hospitals, even if there were staff.
Have been perusing the letters of Herbert Asquith to Venetia Stanley written from 1912 to the end of 1915. Some startling stuff, particularly as found interspersed in correspondence of a war-time prime minister to a vivacious, aristocratic, youngish woman who was is intimate confidante, though not (quite) his mistress.
For example
SECRET {Deciphered Telegram}
From Sir John French To Lord Kitchener
F26. August 24th 24/8/14
My troops have been engaged all day with the enemy on a line roughly east and west through Mons. The attack was renewed after dark but we held our ground tenaciously. I have just received word from General commanding 5th French Army that his troops have been driven back, that NAMUR has fallen, and he is taking up a line from MAUBEUGE to ROCROY. I have therefore ordered a retirement to the line VALENCIENNES to LONGUEVILLE-MAUBEGGE which is being carried out now. It will prove a difficult operation if the enemy remain in contact. I remember your precise instructions as to method and direction of retirement if necessity arises. I think that immediate attention should be directed to defense HAVRE. Will keep you fully informed.
SSI - From his MANY letters to Venetia, it's clear that Asquith was trying to impress a woman with whom he was hot to trot, certainly on an deeply emotional level.
One wonders how many other PMs have done the same (and worse) with highly classified super-secret information, for the same salacious (or close enough) purposes?
Schools in England should not be closing early for Christmas unless they have been told it is “necessary” on public health grounds, the British government has said.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman indicated that schools would be kept open unless there is an “absolute public health emergency”, PA reports.
So, expect schools to close from Wednesday then.
Schools close on Friday anyway. I have absolutely no worries that they're going to close early, that's simply not happening.
But if they think of not reopening them in the new year I'd be furious.
Though we're keeping ours off school for the first week back anyway. Taking them on holiday and I don't feel remotely guilty about it, they've been buggered about with for two years now by this hokey-cokey, they can have a week on holiday instead.
Have you asked for leave or are you just doing it anyway.
Just doing it.
Haven't decided whether I'll tell them this week, or call them on the first day back and leave a voicemail.
Be prepared for a fine, unless they are at Independent Schools.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
I cannot see that entry on their Covid feed. Have they perhaps taken it down?
No, still there when I refresh. As of 2053. Or 7 minutes before two bells in the evening watch.
Beg pardon, I was referring to the general politics feed. I can only grovel and plead it's easy to mix them up these days.
No need to apologise. I notice though that 'your' Graun feed has now been closed for the day. They've (probably inadvertently) left it with about as much clarity as the ending of No Time To Die.
I don't blame them for sodding off home. Trying to make sense of the cabbalistic runes would have that effect on anyone, esp. if it seemed invidious to go home by way of the pub.
Maybe it's just me, but I've always though that there's something about Sajid Javid that makes me think he's not particularly bright. He doesn't seem to be able to think on his feet, and I don't think he's capable of coming up with an original thought. Rather robotic.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
Schools in England should not be closing early for Christmas unless they have been told it is “necessary” on public health grounds, the British government has said.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman indicated that schools would be kept open unless there is an “absolute public health emergency”, PA reports.
So, expect schools to close from Wednesday then.
Schools close on Friday anyway. I have absolutely no worries that they're going to close early, that's simply not happening.
But if they think of not reopening them in the new year I'd be furious.
Though we're keeping ours off school for the first week back anyway. Taking them on holiday and I don't feel remotely guilty about it, they've been buggered about with for two years now by this hokey-cokey, they can have a week on holiday instead.
Have you asked for leave or are you just doing it anyway.
Just doing it.
Haven't decided whether I'll tell them this week, or call them on the first day back and leave a voicemail.
Be prepared for a fine, unless they are at Independent Schools.
First World problem, but my daughter’s independent school closed today, suddenly, due to volume of LFT failures apparently.
We were given 45 minutes to pick her up, and the final week will resume tomorrow via Zoom.
I have other things going on, but I’m not sure whether to be annoyed by the abrupt panic, or impressed by the brutal efficiency.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
At the moment pub owners are getting zero support even as their bookings melt away.
If the government mandates something then their will have to be financial relief.
Unless they view hospitality as expendable - like the oil and gas industry.
Hospitality is totally expendable, apparently. To be fair, joins a loooong list under this government.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
Yep, that'll work. Not.
It definitely would. Get vaccinating and shut up should be the general order of the day. It should have been since the start of September but the government listened to the scientist wankers instead and now we've got 1m (lol) infections per day. The NHS exists to serve the public, not the other way around.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
Majority public opinion is taking the lead from the media, which in turn is looking to the government.
I genuinely don’t know whether we are facing a mass bout of sniffles, or a tidal wave of death.
The government has explained nothing, just made blank generalisations, and the media have done the rest.
As an aside, Steve Baker is almost the only Brexiter on earth I have any time for.
Schools in England should not be closing early for Christmas unless they have been told it is “necessary” on public health grounds, the British government has said.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman indicated that schools would be kept open unless there is an “absolute public health emergency”, PA reports.
So, expect schools to close from Wednesday then.
Schools close on Friday anyway. I have absolutely no worries that they're going to close early, that's simply not happening.
But if they think of not reopening them in the new year I'd be furious.
Though we're keeping ours off school for the first week back anyway. Taking them on holiday and I don't feel remotely guilty about it, they've been buggered about with for two years now by this hokey-cokey, they can have a week on holiday instead.
Have you asked for leave or are you just doing it anyway.
Just doing it.
Haven't decided whether I'll tell them this week, or call them on the first day back and leave a voicemail.
Be prepared for a fine, unless they are at Independent Schools.
LOL if they try and fine us after the last couple of years that'd really be taking the piss. 😂
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
It depends though doesn't it, if the scientists are wrong and Harper or someone like him has ignored them then it's huge foresight to keep us out of another economically damaging lockdown. Do you honestly believe there's 1m cases per day right now? It's laughable and the scientists need to be told firmly to get a grip.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
At the moment pub owners are getting zero support even as their bookings melt away.
If the government mandates something then their will have to be financial relief.
Unless they view hospitality as expendable - like the oil and gas industry.
Hospitality is totally expendable, apparently. To be fair, joins a loooong list under this government.
I owe Boris Johnson an apology.
He wasn't lying when he said 'Fuck business.'
FUCK BORIS!
Rather a large number of ladies reply, 'we already have.'
Maybe it's just me, but I've always though that there's something about Sajid Javid that makes me think he's not particularly bright. He doesn't seem to be able to think on his feet, and I don't think he's capable of coming up with an original thought. Rather robotic.
Hard to believe he's anything other than bright and numerate, given his career achievements.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
Majority public opinion is taking the lead from the media, which in turn is looking to the government.
I genuinely don’t know whether we are facing a mass bout of sniffles, or a tidal wave of death.
The government has explained nothing, just made blank generalisations, and the media have done the rest.
As an aside, Steve Baker is almost the only Brexiter on earth I have any time for.
On that last point, don't you think his chums might be a bit of a problem?
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
Tbh it seems like so many of the models we have seen so far, my favourite being a circuit breaker will save anywhere between 600 and 109,000 lives in the next 3 months.....when with no vaccines and it ripped through the population, we hadn't had 50k dearhs in 6 months. The thought two weeks of lockdown could save 100k lives in 12 weeks is so laughable those people shouldn't be anywhere near mathematical modelling for the government.
Tom Whipple @whippletom Someone at UKHSA does need to clarify the claim by Javid that there are 200k daily Omicron infections. Given they're also saying it isn't even dominant - ie there are a lot more delta- it implies we might as well pack up now and give up on the NHS...
Government sources now doubling down on @sajidjavid's 200,000 new Omicron cases a day claim.
Just to emphasise the implications: The Health Secretary said in his *very next sentence* that this was 20% of UK cases.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
At the moment pub owners are getting zero support even as their bookings melt away.
If the government mandates something then their will have to be financial relief.
Unless they view hospitality as expendable - like the oil and gas industry.
Hospitality is totally expendable, apparently. To be fair, joins a loooong list under this government.
I owe Boris Johnson an apology.
He wasn't lying when he said 'Fuck business.'
FUCK BORIS!
Rather a large number of ladies reply, 'we already have.'
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
Tbh it seems like so many of the models we have seen so far, my favourite being a circuit breaker will save anywhere between 600 and 109,000 lives in the next 3 months.....when with no vaccines and it ripped through the population, we hadn't had 50k dearhs in 6 months. The thought two weeks of lockdown could save 100k lives in 12 weeks is so laughable those people shouldn't be anywhere near mathematical modelling for the government.
Tom Whipple @whippletom Someone at UKHSA does need to clarify the claim by Javid that there are 200k daily Omicron infections. Given they're also saying it isn't even dominant - ie there are a lot more delta- it implies we might as well pack up now and give up on the NHS...
Government sources now doubling down on @sajidjavid's 200,000 new Omicron cases a day claim.
Just to emphasise the implications: The Health Secretary said in his *very next sentence* that this was 20% of UK cases.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
Majority public opinion is taking the lead from the media, which in turn is looking to the government.
I genuinely don’t know whether we are facing a mass bout of sniffles, or a tidal wave of death.
The government has explained nothing, just made blank generalisations, and the media have done the rest.
As an aside, Steve Baker is almost the only Brexiter on earth I have any time for.
On that last point, don't you think his chums might be a bit of a problem?
I just want the turds flushed, Carnyx. I’m beyond caring much beyond that.
Small business owners shouldn’t have to deal with this bollocks.
I'm still shocked that the government is trying to say there's 800k non-omicron infections per day. It's laughable.
I don't think they're trying to say that, I think its clear that someone has ballsed up the clarification.
The ONS is saying that 1/55 are positive, that's a million cases. 20% are Omicron, that's 200k.
All the numbers add up so long as you squint at them and stop trying to say daily. The problem is someone has got the wrong end of the stick and is now running with it.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
Majority public opinion is taking the lead from the media, which in turn is looking to the government.
I genuinely don’t know whether we are facing a mass bout of sniffles, or a tidal wave of death.
The government has explained nothing, just made blank generalisations, and the media have done the rest.
As an aside, Steve Baker is almost the only Brexiter on earth I have any time for.
Exactly if the government is telling everyone 24h to save the NHS the people will generally believe it. I'm sure this 1m cases per day "fact" will be repeated ad nauseam over the next few days too.
It's all so chaotic. The scientists are pushing the same disingenuous models as usual, the NHS bods are doing the same useless job as usual and the politicians are probably worst we've had in a lifetime. From the PM to the cabinet, this is the worst assembled group of politicians that we've been subjected to in my lifetime.
Here's how the Graun is now reporting Javid's remarks:
Addressing MPs, Sajid Javid revealed there may now be as many 200,000 UK Covid infections a day, with 20% of those likely to be the Omicron variant, and warned of “difficult weeks ahead”. In London, the Omicron centre, it accounted for over 44% of cases and was expected to become the dominant within 48 hours, the health secretary said.
i.e. 200,000 infections per day total, 20% of which are Omicron, rather than a million a day, 200k of which are Omicron. Given that the ONS were estimating the total number of people with Covid at just over a million for the seven days ending 1 Dec, something like 1.5 million over the course of the most recent week doesn't seem entirely implausible.
Meanwhile, insofar as I can see, the Beeb is only reporting the 20% of all cases now being Omicron estimate.
Of course, the journalists may now be taking it upon themselves to correct the mistakes and make guesses as to what Javid really meant. Who knows?
Schools in England should not be closing early for Christmas unless they have been told it is “necessary” on public health grounds, the British government has said.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman indicated that schools would be kept open unless there is an “absolute public health emergency”, PA reports.
So, expect schools to close from Wednesday then.
Schools close on Friday anyway. I have absolutely no worries that they're going to close early, that's simply not happening.
But if they think of not reopening them in the new year I'd be furious.
Though we're keeping ours off school for the first week back anyway. Taking them on holiday and I don't feel remotely guilty about it, they've been buggered about with for two years now by this hokey-cokey, they can have a week on holiday instead.
Have you asked for leave or are you just doing it anyway.
Just doing it.
Haven't decided whether I'll tell them this week, or call them on the first day back and leave a voicemail.
Be prepared for a fine, unless they are at Independent Schools.
LOL if they try and fine us after the last couple of years that'd really be taking the piss. 😂
As an ex-teacher myself I have never agreed with stopping parents taking their kids on hol now and again, as long as it's not at a crucial exam time or something. Thankfully the Independent school I taught in up to retirement was a lot more flexible.
Here's how the Graun is now reporting Javid's remarks:
Addressing MPs, Sajid Javid revealed there may now be as many 200,000 UK Covid infections a day, with 20% of those likely to be the Omicron variant, and warned of “difficult weeks ahead”. In London, the Omicron centre, it accounted for over 44% of cases and was expected to become the dominant within 48 hours, the health secretary said.
i.e. 200,000 infections per day total, 20% of which are Omicron, rather than a million a day, 200k of which are Omicron. Given that the ONS were estimating the total number of people with Covid at just over a million for the seven days ending 1 Dec, something like 1.5 million over the course of the most recent week doesn't seem entirely implausible.
Meanwhile, insofar as I can see, the Beeb is only reporting the 20% of all cases now being Omicron estimate.
Of course, the journalists may now be taking it upon themselves to correct the mistakes and make guesses as to what Javid really meant. Who knows?
There we go, that makes much more sense.
Someone didn't understand the numbers.
Garbage In, Garbage Out. Most ironclad rule of data analysis.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
It depends though doesn't it, if the scientists are wrong and Harper or someone like him has ignored them then it's huge foresight to keep us out of another economically damaging lockdown. Do you honestly believe there's 1m cases per day right now? It's laughable and the scientists need to be told firmly to get a grip.
The 1m cases per day / 200k omi cases is clearly an error. Someone in the UKHSA has fucked up, probably in their press office.
But as for the rest of it, the pure science is going to be significantly right. The predictions and effects though, stray into the same issues that economics does; they are open to interpretation.
In particular, the balance between risk and restriction is not really science but politics, public opinion, judgement etc.
I just think public opinion overall is way more cautious than you or Mark Harper are, and a fair bit more cautious than I am for that matter.
I do not think the public would support a 'let-covid-rip-and-deal-with-it' approach.
At the school gate, one parent, who I believe is supposed to be a tax resident of Monaco, told me he is refusing to be boostered until AZ is made available, because “fuck mRNA”.
Is that even a thing? AZ boosters, I mean.
The guy is filthy rich so I guess he could be talking about another country?
Maybe it's just me, but I've always though that there's something about Sajid Javid that makes me think he's not particularly bright. He doesn't seem to be able to think on his feet, and I don't think he's capable of coming up with an original thought. Rather robotic.
Hard to believe he's anything other than bright and numerate, given his career achievements.
He's dropped a ball on this one though.
How sweet that you should assume a senior executive in banking need be bright and numerate, much less a commodities banker at Deutsche.
I haven't seen Starmer's speech yet. Was it that bad?
I've just watched it. Starmer was sober, smart and statesmanlike, addressing "the nation" as if he was PM. Of course it wasn't exciting. But he had a good dig at BJ, without being explicit, by saying "I know the British people will follow the rules as they have done for the last two years" (subtext - unlike Boris and his cronies). Included the customary appeal to patriotism - it's corny, but it needs to be done.
All in all, a decent address to the nation that will do him no harm at all.
It was a total waste of time and broadcast space, with no useful purpose other than political posturing. Exactly like Boris the night before.
I'm still shocked that the government is trying to say there's 800k non-omicron infections per day. It's laughable.
I don't think they're trying to say that, I think its clear that someone has ballsed up the clarification.
The ONS is saying that 1/55 are positive, that's a million cases. 20% are Omicron, that's 200k.
All the numbers add up so long as you squint at them and stop trying to say daily. The problem is someone has got the wrong end of the stick and is now running with it.
Again Hansard/Javid There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of omicron in the UK The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000
I'd be laughed out of court if my work reports were as sloppy as this
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
Tbh it seems like so many of the models we have seen so far, my favourite being a circuit breaker will save anywhere between 600 and 109,000 lives in the next 3 months.....when with no vaccines and it ripped through the population, we hadn't had 50k dearhs in 6 months. The thought two weeks of lockdown could save 100k lives in 12 weeks is so laughable those people shouldn't be anywhere near mathematical modelling for the government.
Tom Whipple @whippletom Someone at UKHSA does need to clarify the claim by Javid that there are 200k daily Omicron infections. Given they're also saying it isn't even dominant - ie there are a lot more delta- it implies we might as well pack up now and give up on the NHS...
Government sources now doubling down on @sajidjavid's 200,000 new Omicron cases a day claim.
Just to emphasise the implications: The Health Secretary said in his *very next sentence* that this was 20% of UK cases.
I see I was an early adopter of 200k confusion. And of hosting omicron. I'm becoming quite a trendsetter. This time next week everyone will need two naps a day.
Maybe it's just me, but I've always though that there's something about Sajid Javid that makes me think he's not particularly bright. He doesn't seem to be able to think on his feet, and I don't think he's capable of coming up with an original thought. Rather robotic.
I was very struck by the contrast of his speech to the commons today with his response to Streeting. Speech was pretty fluent, response not. As you say, not that good at thinking on his feet. I could have answered Streeting’s questions better.
I see I was an early adopter of 200k confusion. And of hosting omicron. I'm becoming quite a trendsetter. This time next week everyone will need two naps a day.
Are you definitely an Omicron hoster ?
Odds are still in favour of you having delta is you're unsequenced.
I'm still shocked that the government is trying to say there's 800k non-omicron infections per day. It's laughable.
It beggars belief - they're just lucky most people neither can nor wish to keep up, because their claim completely undermines the idea there's a crisis. If we're at 1m a day, most of which is delta, and things are basically fine, then frankly we're never going to be in serious trouble.
I'm wondering whether there might be an opening in the market for a device that allows people to access the more positive aspects of the online world while making it difficult or impossible to access the more negative parts of it.
Re those folk being snotty about the Graun earlier - this is what their feed says:
"55m ago 19:46 Late update: The UK Health Security Agency has been in touch to offer final confirmation as to what Sajid Javid meant when he told MPs earlier that “the current number of daily infections are around 200,000”. He did mean that it is estimated that 200,000 people are getting infected with the Omicron variant every day. That is what we thought originally, but we took down the headline on the post (see 4.19am) after it was suggested he meant something else, and it has taken a while to get clarity from officials. A UKHSA spokesperson said Javid was “referring to the number of new infections today [13 December] based on modelling, not the number who are currently infected”. I have amended the wording in the summary as a result."
I cannot see that entry on their Covid feed. Have they perhaps taken it down?
No, still there when I refresh. As of 2053. Or 7 minutes before two bells in the evening watch.
If the government cannot get the numbers right (not that infections tells us anything) then they can’t expect any support for their new measures.
How do you think they're trying to ram them through, it's a government of liars and it's the only way they know.
Call me an idiot, but I had allowed myself to warm to Javid.
Me too, but being in proximity to Boris has clearly rubbed off. I think it's time for Mark Harper and Steve Baker to wield the knife and get rid of them all. Harper as PM will simply tell the scientist wankers and NHS wankers to get fucked and deal with it.
That will not wash with the majority public opinion in the country though. Do you not think that is a teeny-weeny bit of a problem?
It depends though doesn't it, if the scientists are wrong and Harper or someone like him has ignored them then it's huge foresight to keep us out of another economically damaging lockdown. Do you honestly believe there's 1m cases per day right now? It's laughable and the scientists need to be told firmly to get a grip.
The 1m cases per day / 200k omi cases is clearly an error. Someone in the UKHSA has fucked up, probably in their press office.
But as for the rest of it, the pure science is going to be significantly right. The predictions and effects though, stray into the same issues that economics does; they are open to interpretation.
In particular, the balance between risk and restriction is not really science but politics, public opinion, judgement etc.
I just think public opinion overall is way more cautious than you or Mark Harper are, and a fair bit more cautious than I am for that matter.
I do not think the public would support a 'let-covid-rip-and-deal-with-it' approach.
And yet here we are with the politicians and scientists telling obvious lies to try and scare the nation into submission.
The nation is being cautious because of these frankly, ridiculous stats that we get every few hours/days and anonymous briefings about the necessity for more restrictions etc...
It's a completely circular argument. When we had no restrictions the public was more bullish, now that we have more restrictions they are less so.
Ultimately, Boris has achieved what he wanted. No one is talking about his dodgy parties, saving animals instead of people in Afghanistan, about dodgy donors, about his general incompetence. Instead the nation's attention has been forcibly dragged to COVID, to save their skins.
Utterly appalling Red Wall breaks for the Tories in today’s Redfield & Wilton:
North East Lab 44% Con 22% North West Lab 52% Con 26% Yorkshire & Humber Lab 47% Con 36% West Midlands Lab 54% Con 31% East Midlands Lab 41% Con 37%
Totally Ratnered.
Will it stay that way?
These stats feel “sticky”.
What amazes me is suddenly how well the Tories are doing in their traditional Blue Wall heartland! This feels like a watershed: was the breaking of the Red Wall simply a one-off?
At the school gate, one parent, who I believe is supposed to be a tax resident of Monaco, told me he is refusing to be boostered until AZ is made available, because “fuck mRNA”.
Is that even a thing? AZ boosters, I mean.
The guy is filthy rich so I guess he could be talking about another country?
If he's that rich it's really not hard to buy as many of whatever type he wants himself.
I'm still shocked that the government is trying to say there's 800k non-omicron infections per day. It's laughable.
I don't think they're trying to say that, I think its clear that someone has ballsed up the clarification.
The ONS is saying that 1/55 are positive, that's a million cases. 20% are Omicron, that's 200k.
All the numbers add up so long as you squint at them and stop trying to say daily. The problem is someone has got the wrong end of the stick and is now running with it.
Again Hansard/Javid There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of omicron in the UK The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000
I'd be laughed out of court if my work reports were as sloppy as this
Indeed but the numbers work if they mean the current number of people who are currently infected daily, rather than the number of daily infections.
The public data matches that, it doesn't match what has been said.
At the school gate, one parent, who I believe is supposed to be a tax resident of Monaco, told me he is refusing to be boostered until AZ is made available, because “fuck mRNA”.
Is that even a thing? AZ boosters, I mean.
The guy is filthy rich so I guess he could be talking about another country?
He could potentially try and get Novavax? Apparently it's about to be approved.
Have been perusing the letters of Herbert Asquith to Venetia Stanley written from 1912 to the end of 1915. Some startling stuff, particularly as found interspersed in correspondence of a war-time prime minister to a vivacious, aristocratic, youngish woman who was is intimate confidante, though not (quite) his mistress.
For example
SECRET {Deciphered Telegram}
From Sir John French To Lord Kitchener
F26. August 24th 24/8/14
My troops have been engaged all day with the enemy on a line roughly east and west through Mons. The attack was renewed after dark but we held our ground tenaciously. I have just received word from General commanding 5th French Army that his troops have been driven back, that NAMUR has fallen, and he is taking up a line from MAUBEUGE to ROCROY. I have therefore ordered a retirement to the line VALENCIENNES to LONGUEVILLE-MAUBEGGE which is being carried out now. It will prove a difficult operation if the enemy remain in contact. I remember your precise instructions as to method and direction of retirement if necessity arises. I think that immediate attention should be directed to defense HAVRE. Will keep you fully informed.
SSI - From his MANY letters to Venetia, it's clear that Asquith was trying to impress a woman with whom he was hot to trot, certainly on an deeply emotional level.
One wonders how many other PMs have done the same (and worse) with highly classified super-secret information, for the same salacious (or close enough) purposes?
I'm wondering whether there might be an opening in the market for a device that allows people to access the more positive aspects of the online world while making it difficult or impossible to access the more negative parts of it.
EXCL: No 10 staff have received an email this evening warning that some of them will be contacted by the internal investigations team in the coming days to give evidence.
Elsewhere in the Guardian write-up of the current situation, this gem:
The BMA, which represents 150,000 doctors, is the first major medical organisation to call for stricter measures. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, BMA council chair, said: “Despite describing the current situation as an ‘emergency’ with a ‘tidal wave’ of infections on the horizon, the government’s response relying entirely on the vaccine booster programme is missing the wider measures required to control the spread of Omicron, including protecting millions of people who will not be eligible for the booster programme by the end of December.”
Does anyone know if Dr Nagpaul and his trade union are still arguing for Draconian mandatory curbs for the general public, but simultaneously bemoaning the terrible iniquity of compulsory vaccination for its own members?
I see I was an early adopter of 200k confusion. And of hosting omicron. I'm becoming quite a trendsetter. This time next week everyone will need two naps a day.
Are you definitely an Omicron hoster ?
Odds are still in favour of you having delta is you're unsequenced.
Not sure you get to find out. Symptoms were classic omicron. As was how I caught it.
I'm wondering whether there might be an opening in the market for a device that allows people to access the more positive aspects of the online world while making it difficult or impossible to access the more negative parts of it.
Utterly appalling Red Wall breaks for the Tories in today’s Redfield & Wilton:
North East Lab 44% Con 22% North West Lab 52% Con 26% Yorkshire & Humber Lab 47% Con 36% West Midlands Lab 54% Con 31% East Midlands Lab 41% Con 37%
Totally Ratnered.
Will it stay that way?
These stats feel “sticky”.
What amazes me is suddenly how well the Tories are doing in their traditional Blue Wall heartland! This feels like a watershed: was the breaking of the Red Wall simply a one-off?
Now the Tories won't lose Redditch at the next GE, or if they do they'll be down to around 130 seats.
But the die is cast for North Shropshire, I don't think it'll be particularly close. And not in a good way for Boris. Might be a move against him with the absolute pants down shellacking they're about to receive.
I'm wondering whether there might be an opening in the market for a device that allows people to access the more positive aspects of the online world while making it difficult or impossible to access the more negative parts of it.
That well known and free device called the freedom of the will?
I'm wondering whether there might be an opening in the market for a device that allows people to access the more positive aspects of the online world while making it difficult or impossible to access the more negative parts of it.
George Orwell wrote a novel about that.
“At the apex of the pyramid comes Big Brother. Big Brother is infallible and all-powerful. Every success, every achievement, every victory, every scientific discovery, all knowledge, all wisdom, all happiness, all virtue, are held to issue directly from his leadership and inspiration.”
Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon · 42m “There are 200,000 Omicron infections a day.” “Correction: There are 200,000 cases of Omicron in total.” “Correction: There are 200,000 Covid infections a day, 20% of which are Omicron.” “Correction: Our model reckons there were 200,000 Covid infections today.”
I see I was an early adopter of 200k confusion. And of hosting omicron. I'm becoming quite a trendsetter. This time next week everyone will need two naps a day.
“There are 200,000 Omicron infections a day.” “Correction: There are 200,000 cases of Omicron in total.” “Correction: There are 200,000 Covid infections a day, 20% of which are Omicron.” “Correction: Our model reckons there were 200,000 Covid infections today.”
One person in the UK has died from omicron. This means the end of the world is nigh. According to some.
Covid numbers (nearly all unvaccinated) on our ICU do seem to be slowly growing. All staff dreading redeployment. Many are having sleepless nights at the prospect of being sent back to covid ICU.
One person in the UK has died from omicron. This means the end of the world is nigh. According to some.
Covid numbers (nearly all unvaccinated) on our ICU do seem to be slowly growing. All staff dreading redeployment. Many are having sleepless nights at the prospect of being sent back to covid ICU.
How the fuck are they still almost all unvaccinated with our population denominators.
One person in the UK has died from omicron. This means the end of the world is nigh. According to some.
Covid numbers (nearly all unvaccinated) on our ICU do seem to be slowly growing. All staff dreading redeployment. Many are having sleepless nights at the prospect of being sent back to covid ICU.
How the fuck are they still almost all unvaccinated with our population denominators.
There are some very obvious predictors of being unvaccinated that people don't like talking about.
I'm wondering whether there might be an opening in the market for a device that allows people to access the more positive aspects of the online world while making it difficult or impossible to access the more negative parts of it.
There already is such a device. The human brain.
Tbf, I think @Andy_JS has a point. I could see an independent body quality approving sites; probably several bodies, and you decide which you trust. It will come in time, I suspect.
In a way the traditional news media have done that with print stories. If I read the Guardian I am not going to find it full of QAnon conspiracies - nor, for that matter, much scurrilous soap gossip. If I read the DM or The Sun, I'll get a different slant. All of them though offer some protection from the sort of total madness you get on social media.
Comments
Oooops.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/13/uk-covid-live-nhs-appointments-postponed-help-omicron-booster-jabs-boris-johnson-latest-updates
Haven't decided whether I'll tell them this week, or call them on the first day back and leave a voicemail.
Some of these unvaccinated people are going to contract Omicron and while, as we've said, for the vast majority, it's mild for the older unvaccinated it's a real risk. Again, do we have any sense of the numbers?
We know there are older unvaccinated people - shouldn't we be focusing all our efforts on getting this group to have one vaccine rather than piling up boosters for those who, by your definition, are statistically unlikely to have a problem with Omicron?
The cynic might argue it looks good for the Government to boast high booster vaccination numbers but shouldn't the effort be getting into some communities where anti-vaccination rhetoric has taken root and challenge that and get those who have so far eschewed the vaccination to take it?
There have been 200k daily cases, because they've registered all the Leon's individually.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/13/covid-news-live-boris-johnson-warns-of-omicron-tidal-wave-south-african-president-tests-positive?filterKeyEvents=false
All in all, a decent address to the nation that will do him no harm at all.
I'll get my coat...
To be fair, joins a loooong list under this government.
He wasn't lying when he said 'Fuck business.'
It is too complex a condition to be managed in such hospitals, even if there were staff.
For example
SECRET {Deciphered Telegram}
From Sir John French
To Lord Kitchener
F26. August 24th 24/8/14
My troops have been engaged all day with the enemy on a line roughly east and west through Mons. The attack was renewed after dark but we held our ground tenaciously. I have just received word from General commanding 5th French Army that his troops have been driven back, that NAMUR has fallen, and he is taking up a line from MAUBEUGE to ROCROY. I have therefore ordered a retirement to the line VALENCIENNES to LONGUEVILLE-MAUBEGGE which is being carried out now. It will prove a difficult operation if the enemy remain in contact. I remember your precise instructions as to method and direction of retirement if necessity arises. I think that immediate attention should be directed to defense HAVRE. Will keep you fully informed.
SSI - From his MANY letters to Venetia, it's clear that Asquith was trying to impress a woman with whom he was hot to trot, certainly on an deeply emotional level.
One wonders how many other PMs have done the same (and worse) with highly classified super-secret information, for the same salacious (or close enough) purposes?
We were given 45 minutes to pick her up, and the final week will resume tomorrow via Zoom.
I have other things going on, but I’m not sure whether to be annoyed by the abrupt panic, or impressed by the brutal efficiency.
I genuinely don’t know whether we are facing a mass bout of sniffles, or a tidal wave of death.
The government has explained nothing, just made blank generalisations, and the media have done the rest.
As an aside, Steve Baker is almost the only Brexiter on earth I have any time for.
He's dropped a ball on this one though.
I’m beyond caring much beyond that.
Small business owners shouldn’t have to deal with this bollocks.
The ONS is saying that 1/55 are positive, that's a million cases. 20% are Omicron, that's 200k.
All the numbers add up so long as you squint at them and stop trying to say daily. The problem is someone has got the wrong end of the stick and is now running with it.
North East Lab 44% Con 22%
North West Lab 52% Con 26%
Yorkshire & Humber Lab 47% Con 36%
West Midlands Lab 54% Con 31%
East Midlands Lab 41% Con 37%
Women Lab 43% Con 31%
It's all so chaotic. The scientists are pushing the same disingenuous models as usual, the NHS bods are doing the same useless job as usual and the politicians are probably worst we've had in a lifetime. From the PM to the cabinet, this is the worst assembled group of politicians that we've been subjected to in my lifetime.
Will it stay that way?
Addressing MPs, Sajid Javid revealed there may now be as many 200,000 UK Covid infections a day, with 20% of those likely to be the Omicron variant, and warned of “difficult weeks ahead”. In London, the Omicron centre, it accounted for over 44% of cases and was expected to become the dominant within 48 hours, the health secretary said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/13/covid-nhs-in-crisis-mode-as-hospitals-told-to-discharge-patients-where-possible
i.e. 200,000 infections per day total, 20% of which are Omicron, rather than a million a day, 200k of which are Omicron. Given that the ONS were estimating the total number of people with Covid at just over a million for the seven days ending 1 Dec, something like 1.5 million over the course of the most recent week doesn't seem entirely implausible.
Meanwhile, insofar as I can see, the Beeb is only reporting the 20% of all cases now being Omicron estimate.
Of course, the journalists may now be taking it upon themselves to correct the mistakes and make guesses as to what Javid really meant. Who knows?
Someone didn't understand the numbers.
Garbage In, Garbage Out. Most ironclad rule of data analysis.
But as for the rest of it, the pure science is going to be significantly right. The predictions and effects though, stray into the same issues that economics does; they are open to interpretation.
In particular, the balance between risk and restriction is not really science but politics, public opinion, judgement etc.
I just think public opinion overall is way more cautious than you or Mark Harper are, and a fair bit more cautious than I am for that matter.
I do not think the public would support a 'let-covid-rip-and-deal-with-it' approach.
Is that even a thing? AZ boosters, I mean.
The guy is filthy rich so I guess he could be talking about another country?
There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of omicron in the UK
The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000
I'd be laughed out of court if my work reports were as sloppy as this
And of hosting omicron.
I'm becoming quite a trendsetter. This time next week everyone will need two naps a day.
Odds are still in favour of you having delta is you're unsequenced.
I'm wondering whether there might be an opening in the market for a device that allows people to access the more positive aspects of the online world while making it difficult or impossible to access the more negative parts of it.
The nation is being cautious because of these frankly, ridiculous stats that we get every few hours/days and anonymous briefings about the necessity for more restrictions etc...
It's a completely circular argument. When we had no restrictions the public was more bullish, now that we have more restrictions they are less so.
Ultimately, Boris has achieved what he wanted. No one is talking about his dodgy parties, saving animals instead of people in Afghanistan, about dodgy donors, about his general incompetence. Instead the nation's attention has been forcibly dragged to COVID, to save their skins.
What amazes me is suddenly how well the Tories are doing in their traditional Blue Wall heartland! This feels like a watershed: was the breaking of the Red Wall simply a one-off?
(Note oddities: SW Lib Dems on 26! SLab on 11%!)
The public data matches that, it doesn't match what has been said.
Screw up over conspiracy is my guess.
https://lettersofnote.com/2009/10/28/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then/
300k a day in a population of 5 million...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10304779/Norway-faces-Omicron-contagion-bomb-300-000-cases-daily-Europe-faces-Covid-onslaught.html
It directs them to "not destroy any relevant information" relating to Christmas parties last year.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470506750193422339
The BMA, which represents 150,000 doctors, is the first major medical organisation to call for stricter measures. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, BMA council chair, said: “Despite describing the current situation as an ‘emergency’ with a ‘tidal wave’ of infections on the horizon, the government’s response relying entirely on the vaccine booster programme is missing the wider measures required to control the spread of Omicron, including protecting millions of people who will not be eligible for the booster programme by the end of December.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/13/covid-nhs-in-crisis-mode-as-hospitals-told-to-discharge-patients-where-possible
Does anyone know if Dr Nagpaul and his trade union are still arguing for Draconian mandatory curbs for the general public, but simultaneously bemoaning the terrible iniquity of compulsory vaccination for its own members?
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
16m
>1% - higher than folk were hoping from the South African data. At that level it wouldn't be milder at all.
Symptoms were classic omicron. As was how I caught it.
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2019-12-12/results/Location/Region/West Midlands
Con 54%, Lab 34%
A 20% swing - they're losing Redditch on this.
Now the Tories won't lose Redditch at the next GE, or if they do they'll be down to around 130 seats.
But the die is cast for North Shropshire, I don't think it'll be particularly close. And not in a good way for Boris. Might be a move against him with the absolute pants down shellacking they're about to receive.
“At the apex of the pyramid comes Big Brother. Big Brother is infallible and all-powerful. Every success, every achievement, every victory, every scientific discovery, all knowledge, all wisdom, all happiness, all virtue, are held to issue directly from his leadership and inspiration.”
Christopher Snowdon
@cjsnowdon
·
42m
“There are 200,000 Omicron infections a day.”
“Correction: There are 200,000 cases of Omicron in total.”
“Correction: There are 200,000 Covid infections a day, 20% of which are Omicron.”
“Correction: Our model reckons there were 200,000 Covid infections today.”
What a shower.
“Correction: There are 200,000 cases of Omicron in total.”
“Correction: There are 200,000 Covid infections a day, 20% of which are Omicron.”
“Correction: Our model reckons there were 200,000 Covid infections today.”
What a shower.
https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1470497424997289988
We shouldn’t let the fact that Javid garbled the figures in Parliament distract us from the fact that figures come from an unpunished UKHSA model and are therefore worthless. (Like their last model: https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-million-cases-day-by-christmas.html?m=1)
In a way the traditional news media have done that with print stories. If I read the Guardian I am not going to find it full of QAnon conspiracies - nor, for that matter, much scurrilous soap gossip. If I read the DM or The Sun, I'll get a different slant. All of them though offer some protection from the sort of total madness you get on social media.
I dunno, just thinking aloud really.