For what it's worth, my views as a social democrat are that there are some things that ought to be run by the state (railways, healthcare) and things that should not (most private enterprise).
Social democracy is about pursuing capitalism for the good of all, it is not about destroying and replacing it. And for me that is why I very much disliked much of the 2019 Labour manifesto - the 2017 manifesto I thought was good.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
I do realise I have a set of beliefs which don't really conform to most of the usual trends. I also do try (and generally fail) to be as Socratic as possible in my outlook. Assume that you are probably wrong, probably don't know anywhere near as much as you should and are probably surrounded by people who are brighter than you are. Much of that outlook has come from my time on PB and I like to think it has helped both to make me less arrogant and to crystallise my own core beliefs a little more.
You're an enigma, Richard. I find it hard to call your view on anything until I see it in writing. Quite unusual.
I would like to claim that it is because of some deep understanding beyond the wit of mortal man. But mostly it is because I haven't really thought stuff through in terms of its implications and practicalities until I actually come to write it down. I have a set of core beliefs but how they translate into words and deeds is often contradictory. I am as surprised as everyone else at some of the conclusions.
I think I see from inside the windows how confusion can often be mistaken for depth.
I think you need a certain depth in order to be confused. If you can hold only one basic idea at a time, you'll always be certain and usually wrong.
@Richard_Tyndall I really do think we need to move on from Brexit though, we've left and most have accepted it. I really wish certain people would stop needlessly bringing up what people voted for and said prior to GE19 when it clearly changed the balance in the country and Parliament. It just seems so self-defeating
Can't very well do that till HMG gets its arse sorted out from its elbow, never mind where the toilet paper is, in terms of HMRC, border controls, etc. etc. It's only been three and a bit years, tbf.
Ugly for Tory voters and supporters. But that was clearly the case a week or so ago.
I'm sure that the political landscape has entirely shifted. Boris has managed a political earthquake - unfortunately against him. Of course some aspects of this aren't his fault, and the opposition are making hay everywhere and in some aspects it's too much.
2024 (and it must now be 2024) will be an interesting year.
I don't think at all that it must be 2024. If the Tories gang up to get rid of Johnson, the successor will probably get a short term boost from a thankful electorate, much the same as Major initially got a boost in 1990 and 1991 for getting rid of Thatcher before the lead fell back later in 1991 and 1992.
That doesn't mean that the Tories can't win in 2024 under a new leader, just as Major did in 1992, but the odds would probably be better for them under a new leader in late 2022 or 2023, so the chances of an early election have in my view gone up with the rocketing odds that Johnson will go early. The only real spanner in that argument is that they'll do better under new boundaries.
I don't think the Tories will have polling leads any time soon. Under Boris.. what's he going to say/do? He's got no money. Under a new leader - maybe. Patel or Hunt are the only choices that have a hope in my view. Too early for Sunak. Nobody could want Gove. Truss just isn't very good.
My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:
1. Restrictions. 2. Short Lockdown. 3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports). 4. Long Lockdown.
Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.
If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.
And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.
The hard lockdown will be 2-3 months. The tail end, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, will take us all the way into Summer, just like last time. A catastrophe.
But that means many months of furlough, which we simply cannot afford. This time the Treasury will fight
And the rest of the world won't do it either, the UK will be alone on this Omicron panic while everyone else just gets on with life. This is a confected nonsense to get the public focussed on something other than the PM and his mates living it up while they condemned us all to lockdown last year.
My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:
1. Restrictions. 2. Short Lockdown. 3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports). 4. Long Lockdown.
Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.
If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.
And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.
The hard lockdown will be 2-3 months. The tail end, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, will take us all the way into Summer, just like last time. A catastrophe.
I think the temptation will be for that, but the Tory Party won't let Boris do that this time. But if we do go down the lockdown route (and I think we are being set up for it), one month isn't enough, so I can see Jan-Feb being lockdown or something akin to it with WFH, pubs closed, rule of 6, etc.
The size of the Tory rebellion matters naught. Enough of the Government's MPs are on side to get any amount of Covid crap through the Commons with the backing of Labour, which seems to be quite enthusiastic about locking us up for life and throwing away the key.
Lockdown from next weekend until the end of March. More Covid crap until July or August. About three months off, new variant, and we start all over again. Rinse and repeat.
It is not happening. Voters now oppose closing pubs and restaurants 49% to 31% and oppose too restrictions on households meeting indoors.
Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild
Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt
Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?
Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that
But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed
The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.
I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen
I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties. On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again. On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.
A very large fraction of the population, especially those aged between about 40 and 70, have been double jabbed with AZ - which, it transpires, is completely useless at protecting you against infection. At the rate that this expands, the very large fraction of us that can't obtain a Pfizer booster for weeks (my appointment is for the 29th, I daren't cancel it and try to get anything sooner because there probably aren't any slots left, so I'm basically down to going to a walk-in centre early next week and praying they've got sufficient supply) might as well resign ourselves to catching it.
A sufficiently large number of cases (even if Omicron is somewhat less harmful than Delta) = too many hospital patients = lockdown.
Omicron has now been with us for a little while, and the boffins will be looking very closely at the hospitalisation data as it comes in. If the explosion in cases and the percentage of infections leading to hospitalisation are both large enough, we've had it.
Given the preliminary findings about the transmissibility of Omicron and that so many of us are completely defenceless against infection, an explosion in cases seems inevitable - so it's all on how many of us get really sick. My own confidence on that front has collapsed. I'm not certain a lockdown announcement is coming next Saturday, but I think it quite likely. And once they do it, we know how that plays out. We'll be under house arrest for months and months and months.
You can rebook before you definitively cancel. They’ve changed that on the system
Thank you very much @Charles. I didn't know about that until you told me.
Now have a slot on Friday instead of after Christmas. Much appreciated.
My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:
1. Restrictions. 2. Short Lockdown. 3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports). 4. Long Lockdown.
Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.
If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.
And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.
The hard lockdown will be 2-3 months. The tail end, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, will take us all the way into Summer, just like last time. A catastrophe.
But that means many months of furlough, which we simply cannot afford. This time the Treasury will fight
It probably won't, not once the SAGE models have hit them.
Most likely they'll go back to the markets and attempt to borrow another £200bn or £300bn. But if they think they can't afford to support businesses, or no-one will lend them more money, then they won't attempt to veto the lockdown. They'll burn the businesses to save the hospitals.
They just print money* like last time.
* Sorry. Borrow from the independent Bank of England
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
I do realise I have a set of beliefs which don't really conform to most of the usual trends. I also do try (and generally fail) to be as Socratic as possible in my outlook. Assume that you are probably wrong, probably don't know anywhere near as much as you should and are probably surrounded by people who are brighter than you are. Much of that outlook has come from my time on PB and I like to think it has helped both to make me less arrogant and to crystallise my own core beliefs a little more.
I've definitely had the idea that I am a natural social democrat confirmed by my time on PB, falling down a rabbit hole during the Corbyn years has allowed me to return to my moderate home. And that is where I think much of the country are to be honest.
I'd for what it's worth, vote to stay out of the EU now but I am a big believer in the EEA model.
100% agree with you. If we had listened to some of the saner voices after Brexit that is where we would have ended up.
If the Redwall had not voted to end free movement Leave would not have won anyway. The Canadian style trade deal we now have with the EU respects what most Leavers voted for
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
You need to get out more. There's plenty out there.
I don't doubt it - and I wasn't trying to imply there weren't many. I do think though that like the Remain side, the worst are the loudest.
I don't know if you're a Brexiteer but you're a reasonable chap too
I'm not a Brexiter, I'm quite against it. But I don't like the way people allow it to define them and mould their opinions about other things. And if someone is wrong (in my view) about one policy area then they might still be right about something else, and vice versa.
This is not a controversial view, I know, but one that deserves a more vocal and robust defence. Centrists of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but the fundamentalists on either side.
I completely agree with this.
As I pointed out a few times before, there seems to be a real misunderstanding by a few of what this new Tory coalition really wants. I am not convinced it is pro the Rishi Sunak model of economics, nor the Truss. I'm also not of the view they're anti lockdowns or anti-vaxers yet some people seem to think they are, which I think is very insulting.
The Tory coalition to me seems to be fundamentally at odds with itself - and we are seeing it now begin to collapse back the bedrock of 29% (1997)
The Tory coalition agreed about 2 things. Pro-Brexit, anti-Corbyn. They disagree on most everything else.
My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:
1. Restrictions. 2. Short Lockdown. 3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports). 4. Long Lockdown.
Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.
If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.
And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.
The hard lockdown will be 2-3 months. The tail end, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, will take us all the way into Summer, just like last time. A catastrophe.
But that means many months of furlough, which we simply cannot afford. This time the Treasury will fight
It probably won't, not once the SAGE models have hit them.
Most likely they'll go back to the markets and attempt to borrow another £200bn or £300bn. But if they think they can't afford to support businesses, or no-one will lend them more money, then they won't attempt to veto the lockdown. They'll burn the businesses to save the hospitals.
They just print money* like last time.
* Sorry. Borrow from the independent Bank of England
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
You need to get out more. There's plenty out there.
I don't doubt it - and I wasn't trying to imply there weren't many. I do think though that like the Remain side, the worst are the loudest.
I don't know if you're a Brexiteer but you're a reasonable chap too
I'm not a Brexiter, I'm quite against it. But I don't like the way people allow it to define them and mould their opinions about other things. And if someone is wrong (in my view) about one policy area then they might still be right about something else, and vice versa.
This is not a controversial view, I know, but one that deserves a more vocal and robust defence. Centrists of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but the fundamentalists on either side.
I completely agree with this.
As I pointed out a few times before, there seems to be a real misunderstanding by a few of what this new Tory coalition really wants. I am not convinced it is pro the Rishi Sunak model of economics, nor the Truss. I'm also not of the view they're anti lockdowns or anti-vaxers yet some people seem to think they are, which I think is very insulting.
The Tory coalition to me seems to be fundamentally at odds with itself - and we are seeing it now begin to collapse back the bedrock of 29% (1997)
The Tory coalition agreed about 2 things. Pro-Brexit, anti-Corbyn. They disagree on most everything else.
I've said many times that I believe Johnson would not have done nearly as well up against somebody else
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
I do realise I have a set of beliefs which don't really conform to most of the usual trends. I also do try (and generally fail) to be as Socratic as possible in my outlook. Assume that you are probably wrong, probably don't know anywhere near as much as you should and are probably surrounded by people who are brighter than you are. Much of that outlook has come from my time on PB and I like to think it has helped both to make me less arrogant and to crystallise my own core beliefs a little more.
I've definitely had the idea that I am a natural social democrat confirmed by my time on PB, falling down a rabbit hole during the Corbyn years has allowed me to return to my moderate home. And that is where I think much of the country are to be honest.
I'd for what it's worth, vote to stay out of the EU now but I am a big believer in the EEA model.
100% agree with you. If we had listened to some of the saner voices after Brexit that is where we would have ended up.
If the Redwall had not voted to end free movement Leave would not have won anyway
If we hadn't had austerity Brexit would have been lost, a truly wicked policy
Here is the full Wikipedia entry for Beauchamp Bagenal, for edification of PBers:
Beauchamp Bagenal (1741 – 1 May 1802) was an Irish rake, buck[clarification needed], duellist and politician.
He was born in County Carlow in 1741, son of Walter Bagenal, and his second wife Eleanor Beauchamp, and inherited the family estates aged 11. Bagenal gained a reputation as a hell raiser and serial heartbreaker, and was reportedly described as the handsomest man in Ireland.[1] According to Jonah Barrington, on his Grand Tour, Bagenal:
fought a prince, jilted a princess, intoxicated the Doge of Venice, carried off a duchess from Madrid, scaled the walls of a convent in Lisbon and fought a duel in Paris,[2]
The jilted Princess referred to above was Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz, afterwards married to George III of Great Britain
At his home, Dunleckney, Muine Bheag, County Carlow, he earned the nickname "King" Bagenal based on his lavish entertaining and the autocratic manner with which he ran what was virtually a court. Meals were "primarily drinking bouts. At table, he kept a brace of duelling pistols handy, one for tapping the barrel of claret, the other for dealing with any of his guests who failed to drink enough to send him reeling from the table. Dinner was followed by compulsory all night revels."[1]
Bagenal was less violent than his later reputation. There is no proof that he shot all, or even many, of his guests. He fought as few as a dozen duels, a derisory number compared to the great duellists of his day. One of the twelve was against his own cousin, Bagenal Harvey. Harvey fired first, but missed, to Bagenal's delight. "You damn you villain? Do you know you had like to kill your own godfather? Go back to Dunleckney, you dog, and have a good breakfast ready for us. I only wanted to see if you were stout."[1]
A number of other anecdotes of Bagenal's wildness and eccentricity exist online.
Bagenal was lame, and therefore, when fighting had to lean against a tombstone. He represented Enniscorthy in the Irish House of Commons from 1761 to 1768. He sat then as Member of Parliament (MP) for Carlow County between 1768 and 1776 and again between 1778 and 1783.
By his wife Maria he had three children; he had at least one illegitimate child, Sarah.
References Donaldson, William. Rogues, Villains & Eccentrics: An A-Z of Roguish Britons Through the Ages pp. 38–9, Phoenix, London, 2002 cited in Donaldson, in , William. Rogues, Villains & Eccentrics: An A-Z of Roguish Britons Through the Ages, Phoenix, London, 2002
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
I do realise I have a set of beliefs which don't really conform to most of the usual trends. I also do try (and generally fail) to be as Socratic as possible in my outlook. Assume that you are probably wrong, probably don't know anywhere near as much as you should and are probably surrounded by people who are brighter than you are. Much of that outlook has come from my time on PB and I like to think it has helped both to make me less arrogant and to crystallise my own core beliefs a little more.
I've definitely had the idea that I am a natural social democrat confirmed by my time on PB, falling down a rabbit hole during the Corbyn years has allowed me to return to my moderate home. And that is where I think much of the country are to be honest.
I'd for what it's worth, vote to stay out of the EU now but I am a big believer in the EEA model.
100% agree with you. If we had listened to some of the saner voices after Brexit that is where we would have ended up.
If the Redwall had not voted to end free movement Leave would not have won anyway
If we hadn't had austerity Brexit would have been lost, a truly wicked policy
A man has died after sustaining gunshot wounds in an incident involving armed officers, close to Kensington Palace in London, the Metropolitan Police said
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
‘The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat,” a former ally said last week. “He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”
It has never been hard to find people with a bad word to say about a man who has left a trail of broken friendships, colleagues, families and lovers in his wake. Time and time again, however, he defied the rules, including those of political gravity, to achieve a landslide election victory two years ago today, his crowning glory.
Now unforced errors over the past two months — the consequences of his flawed character, according to critics — might have put his premiership in mortal danger. How bad is the crisis? How did it happen? Is this the endgame for Johnson or will he once again fight free?
The stairs to the prime minister’s family flat start in a hall adjacent to the Downing Street press office, scene of the infamous Christmas party on December 18.
BIB - Is the point I've been banging on all week, even if Boris Johnson didn't attend the party, he would need to be deaf and blind to not know there was a party of 30+ happening downstairs.
To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now
But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek
WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?
Search google for UK Government Passenger Locator Form. It’s on a .gov.Uk site.
I think there is a link to it on one of the dozens of emails ba spams you with
That’s the one you do to come home. It’s too early.
Ugly for Tory voters and supporters. But that was clearly the case a week or so ago.
I'm sure that the political landscape has entirely shifted. Boris has managed a political earthquake - unfortunately against him. Of course some aspects of this aren't his fault, and the opposition are making hay everywhere and in some aspects it's too much.
2024 (and it must now be 2024) will be an interesting year.
I don't think at all that it must be 2024. If the Tories gang up to get rid of Johnson, the successor will probably get a short term boost from a thankful electorate, much the same as Major initially got a boost in 1990 and 1991 for getting rid of Thatcher before the lead fell back later in 1991 and 1992.
That doesn't mean that the Tories can't win in 2024 under a new leader, just as Major did in 1992, but the odds would probably be better for them under a new leader in late 2022 or 2023, so the chances of an early election have in my view gone up with the rocketing odds that Johnson will go early. The only real spanner in that argument is that they'll do better under new boundaries.
In the future timetable there are two similar but different questions: 1) Is Boris now finished so that it is a question of time, he can't recover and 2) Does Boris think this is the case either right now or soon.
Most people think (1) is true. FWIW I think there is just a tiny (2-5% chance?) chance that recovery could happen. (Win NS, Xmas goes OK, another Black Swan shows up, favourable to Boris, Mail Sun and Tele decide to back him)
(2) is important. Unless Boris thinks he is finished, he isn't. And when he does decide it's over he will need to maximise his legacy and his future. What effect does this have on his strategy? It's guesswork but I am not convinced that Boris thinks it's over. I suspect he will give it at least till the end of January to see where the land lies. This side of NS, Xmas, knowing where Omicron variant takes us will be too early.
Share Save ‘The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat,” a former ally said last week. “He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”
It has never been hard to find people with a bad word to say about a man who has left a trail of broken friendships, colleagues, families and lovers in his wake. Time and time again, however, he defied the rules, including those of political gravity, to achieve a landslide election victory two years ago today, his crowning glory.
Now unforced errors over the past two months — the consequences of his flawed character, according to critics — might have put his premiership in mortal danger. How bad is the crisis? How did it happen? Is this the endgame for Johnson or will he once again fight free?
The stairs to the prime minister’s family flat start in a hall adjacent to the Downing Street press office, scene of the infamous Christmas party on December 18.
BIB - Is the point I've been banging on all week, even if Boris Johnson didn't attend the party, he would need to be deaf and blind to not know there was a party of 30+ happening downstairs.
The fact he has been unwilling to throw everybody under the bus over this is the most telling thing. If he really had no idea, his own life would have been much easier if he just sacked them. Instead all these ridiculous lies. In fact, he might have been able to spin it as being decisive, we can't have this one rule for only some i.e. the initial way Cameron reacted over expense scandal.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
The concern is not that the vaccines have become wholly ineffectual - the current assumption seems to be that they should continue to give people a good chance of avoiding hospital - but that two doses are much less effective at protecting against both infection and some kind of symptomatic illness against Omicron than they are against Delta. In particular, AZ seems to offer (with the caveat that the data available to make this determination are necessarily still limited) little defence against mild illness and zilch against infection.
Therefore, the obvious concern is that we're dealing with a highly transmissible variant against which those who received a double helping of AZ in particular (which is the bulk of UK vaccine recipients between 40 and 70) will be defenceless against initial infection with, unless they've already had boosters. A large fraction of those of us in that age group, especially at the lower end, have yet to do so.
From there, mathematics takes over. Even if Omicron causes a smaller per capita number of severe disease cases requiring hospitalisation than Delta, if we have a large enough number of cases all at once this could easily still result in the number of admissions threatening to bust the healthcare system. At that point, more severe restrictions - up to and including lockdown - come back onto the table.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
Share Save ‘The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat,” a former ally said last week. “He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”
It has never been hard to find people with a bad word to say about a man who has left a trail of broken friendships, colleagues, families and lovers in his wake. Time and time again, however, he defied the rules, including those of political gravity, to achieve a landslide election victory two years ago today, his crowning glory.
Now unforced errors over the past two months — the consequences of his flawed character, according to critics — might have put his premiership in mortal danger. How bad is the crisis? How did it happen? Is this the endgame for Johnson or will he once again fight free?
The stairs to the prime minister’s family flat start in a hall adjacent to the Downing Street press office, scene of the infamous Christmas party on December 18.
BIB - Is the point I've been banging on all week, even if Boris Johnson didn't attend the party, he would need to be deaf and blind to not know there was a party of 30+ happening downstairs.
The fact he has been unwilling to throw everybody under the bus over this is the most telling thing. If he really had no idea, his own life would have been much easier if he just sacked them. Instead all these ridiculous lies. In fact, he might have been able to spin it as being decisive, we can't have this one rule for only some i.e. the initial way Cameron reacted over expense scandal.
Yes. he would have done better with an early admission, and a fine 'the buck stops here' speech. The stuff about being horrified and appalled at how he and his set behave on that absurd video (when objectively it was just knockabout anyway), and everyone but him might be to blame and disciplined was toe curling.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
I do realise I have a set of beliefs which don't really conform to most of the usual trends. I also do try (and generally fail) to be as Socratic as possible in my outlook. Assume that you are probably wrong, probably don't know anywhere near as much as you should and are probably surrounded by people who are brighter than you are. Much of that outlook has come from my time on PB and I like to think it has helped both to make me less arrogant and to crystallise my own core beliefs a little more.
You're an enigma, Richard. I find it hard to call your view on anything until I see it in writing. Quite unusual.
I would like to claim that it is because of some deep understanding beyond the wit of mortal man. But mostly it is because I haven't really thought stuff through in terms of its implications and practicalities until I actually come to write it down. I have a set of core beliefs but how they translate into words and deeds is often contradictory. I am as surprised as everyone else at some of the conclusions.
I think I see from inside the windows how confusion can often be mistaken for depth.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
I think it’s already over half in my borough. So if I catch Covid in the next few days it’s highly likely to be Omicron.
To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now
But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek
WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?
Search google for UK Government Passenger Locator Form. It’s on a .gov.Uk site.
I think there is a link to it on one of the dozens of emails ba spams you with
That’s the one you do to come home. It’s too early.
I think I just heard Christina Pagel saying on BBC news that the 25k-75k deaths "model" takes no account of the severity of Omicron. So they presumably are assuming it is as deadly as Delta. When asked about the apparently low hospitalisation rate in SA, she put it down to the prevalence of prior infection and hence natural immunity. So the best case scenario is not a best case scenario.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
@Richard_Tyndall I really do think we need to move on from Brexit though, we've left and most have accepted it. I really wish certain people would stop needlessly bringing up what people voted for and said prior to GE19 when it clearly changed the balance in the country and Parliament. It just seems so self-defeating
Can't very well do that till HMG gets its arse sorted out from its elbow, never mind where the toilet paper is, in terms of HMRC, border controls, etc. etc. It's only been three and a bit years, tbf.
I am not convinced this lot could do it in three and a half centuries.
Had to change trains in Edinburgh. Used the 70 minutes to have a last meal (mmmmm Burger King, it's been a long time) and some fresh air.
City centre heaving with some fair thing on. Only way to get about was wall in the road dodging buses.
And then back to the station. Aberdeen express booked for 4-car HST, with a 2-car DMU working it. Arrived on the platform 8 minutes before departure to find it crush loaded with people left on the platform.
Bravo ScotRail borrowing a 4-car set arriving in from Perth. Now 6-car there is bags of room and I don't have to worry about people. Does feel like I am sculking home in disgrace though.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
@FrankBooth have just read elsewhere that the booster booking website may now be taking appointments for thirtysomethings. Give it a try and let us know what it says.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I think he was very stupid and sadly “Left Out” has made this clear to me. But I don’t think he was malicious in the way Johnson seems to be.
To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now
But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek
WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?
Search google for UK Government Passenger Locator Form. It’s on a .gov.Uk site.
I think there is a link to it on one of the dozens of emails ba spams you with
That’s the one you do to come home. It’s too early.
But it’s on the BA prompt from the beginning
Yes, it is, which is why it is so confusing. Just shit web design
My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:
1. Restrictions. 2. Short Lockdown. 3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports). 4. Long Lockdown.
Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.
If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.
And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.
The hard lockdown will be 2-3 months. The tail end, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, will take us all the way into Summer, just like last time. A catastrophe.
But that means many months of furlough, which we simply cannot afford. This time the Treasury will fight
It probably won't, not once the SAGE models have hit them.
Most likely they'll go back to the markets and attempt to borrow another £200bn or £300bn. But if they think they can't afford to support businesses, or no-one will lend them more money, then they won't attempt to veto the lockdown. They'll burn the businesses to save the hospitals.
Your posts read well but you and reason have parted company on this topic.
That might not be entirely unfair. We have been here before, I can see the next lockdown coming, I'm one of life's natural pessimists, and giving vent to frustrations is part of my coping mechanism.
FWIW I was trying very hard to be optimistic about this situation until recently. I managed to successfully convince myself for a while, even after the wretched virus mutated again, that the Government wouldn't make us live through a repeat of last Winter because it couldn't afford the cost. Certainly before Omicron it looked like things genuinely weren't going at all badly.
But now? Massive wave of cases looks highly likely, accompanied by a pile of catastrophic models being shoved under ministers' noses. Unless Omicron is substantially milder than Delta, that predicates in favour of much more severe restrictions, and we know from the last time around how reluctant the authorities are to let go of them once they're imposed.
Ok, but I actually don't see much evidence that the authorities were reluctant to let previous restrictions go once the need for them had gone.
Hey and I think we have literally 'been here before', haven't we? I sense you're a particular old poster back with new name. I won't say which in case you don't want that. Plus I could be wrong (but I think not).
Share Save ‘The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat,” a former ally said last week. “He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”
It has never been hard to find people with a bad word to say about a man who has left a trail of broken friendships, colleagues, families and lovers in his wake. Time and time again, however, he defied the rules, including those of political gravity, to achieve a landslide election victory two years ago today, his crowning glory.
Now unforced errors over the past two months — the consequences of his flawed character, according to critics — might have put his premiership in mortal danger. How bad is the crisis? How did it happen? Is this the endgame for Johnson or will he once again fight free?
The stairs to the prime minister’s family flat start in a hall adjacent to the Downing Street press office, scene of the infamous Christmas party on December 18.
BIB - Is the point I've been banging on all week, even if Boris Johnson didn't attend the party, he would need to be deaf and blind to not know there was a party of 30+ happening downstairs.
The fact he has been unwilling to throw everybody under the bus over this is the most telling thing. If he really had no idea, his own life would have been much easier if he just sacked them. Instead all these ridiculous lies. In fact, he might have been able to spin it as being decisive, we can't have this one rule for only some i.e. the initial way Cameron reacted over expense scandal.
Word is that he refused the press guy’s resignation so that he’ll be there to sack when the cabinet Secretary comes back with a damning inquiry.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
The concern is not that the vaccines have become wholly ineffectual - the current assumption seems to be that they should continue to give people a good chance of avoiding hospital - but that two doses are much less effective at protecting against both infection and some kind of symptomatic illness against Omicron than they are against Delta. In particular, AZ seems to offer (with the caveat that the data available to make this determination are necessarily still limited) little defence against mild illness and zilch against infection.
Therefore, the obvious concern is that we're dealing with a highly transmissible variant against which those who received a double helping of AZ in particular (which is the bulk of UK vaccine recipients between 40 and 70) will be defenceless against initial infection with, unless they've already had boosters. A large fraction of those of us in that age group, especially at the lower end, have yet to do so.
From there, mathematics takes over. Even if Omicron causes a smaller per capita number of severe disease cases requiring hospitalisation than Delta, if we have a large enough number of cases all at once this could easily still result in the number of admissions threatening to bust the healthcare system. At that point, more severe restrictions - up to and including lockdown - come back onto the table.
The main thing is that the vaccines offer protection against serious illness. I may reinfect someone else who so long as they are vaccinated will probably be fine. Are we going to do all this because of people not wanting to get vaccinated.
If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.
The United States pays its debts when they are due. That’s why today, I signed a bill to fast-track the process to raise our debt limit. https://t.co/Rx4MNC1XS9
I think Joe you mean you haven't repaid, so need to take out more debt...
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I don’t agree. To me this question is like the Master and Commander scene, where they were judging the lesser of two weevils. Only in this instance swapping the weevils with cunts.
Back later a live band is about to start. Dare I say I am at a party 💃🏻
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
Share Save ‘The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat,” a former ally said last week. “He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”
It has never been hard to find people with a bad word to say about a man who has left a trail of broken friendships, colleagues, families and lovers in his wake. Time and time again, however, he defied the rules, including those of political gravity, to achieve a landslide election victory two years ago today, his crowning glory.
Now unforced errors over the past two months — the consequences of his flawed character, according to critics — might have put his premiership in mortal danger. How bad is the crisis? How did it happen? Is this the endgame for Johnson or will he once again fight free?
The stairs to the prime minister’s family flat start in a hall adjacent to the Downing Street press office, scene of the infamous Christmas party on December 18.
BIB - Is the point I've been banging on all week, even if Boris Johnson didn't attend the party, he would need to be deaf and blind to not know there was a party of 30+ happening downstairs.
The fact he has been unwilling to throw everybody under the bus over this is the most telling thing. If he really had no idea, his own life would have been much easier if he just sacked them. Instead all these ridiculous lies. In fact, he might have been able to spin it as being decisive, we can't have this one rule for only some i.e. the initial way Cameron reacted over expense scandal.
Word is that he refused the press guy’s resignation so that he’ll be there to sack when the cabinet Secretary comes back with a damning inquiry.
If you were personally innicent, dragging out to eventually sack that one guy has to be one of most stupid political moves (even by Boris standards).... that's why he clearly isn't innocent.
As i said before, my take is I reckon a culture of piss up in the office became a thing...then there was can we have a Christmas do, Boris has given it if I never said you could, but if one was to occur i never knew it happened.
My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:
1. Restrictions. 2. Short Lockdown. 3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports). 4. Long Lockdown.
Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.
If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.
And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.
The hard lockdown will be 2-3 months. The tail end, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, will take us all the way into Summer, just like last time. A catastrophe.
But that means many months of furlough, which we simply cannot afford. This time the Treasury will fight
It probably won't, not once the SAGE models have hit them.
Most likely they'll go back to the markets and attempt to borrow another £200bn or £300bn. But if they think they can't afford to support businesses, or no-one will lend them more money, then they won't attempt to veto the lockdown. They'll burn the businesses to save the hospitals.
Your posts read well but you and reason have parted company on this topic.
That might not be entirely unfair. We have been here before, I can see the next lockdown coming, I'm one of life's natural pessimists, and giving vent to frustrations is part of my coping mechanism.
FWIW I was trying very hard to be optimistic about this situation until recently. I managed to successfully convince myself for a while, even after the wretched virus mutated again, that the Government wouldn't make us live through a repeat of last Winter because it couldn't afford the cost. Certainly before Omicron it looked like things genuinely weren't going at all badly.
But now? Massive wave of cases looks highly likely, accompanied by a pile of catastrophic models being shoved under ministers' noses. Unless Omicron is substantially milder than Delta, that predicates in favour of much more severe restrictions, and we know from the last time around how reluctant the authorities are to let go of them once they're imposed.
Ok, but I actually don't see much evidence that the authorities were reluctant to let previous restrictions go once the need for them had gone.
Hey and I think we have literally 'been here before', haven't we? I sense you're a particular old poster back with new name. I won't say which in case you don't want that. Plus I could be wrong (but I think not).
The lockdown last Winter was very long, and so was the crawl out of it afterwards. Arguably unnecessarily so. And I'm not at all trusting that we won't end up with a repeat, in particular because the Government is probably still afraid of the accusation that it's gone too far the other way (as per the move into the tier system after the circuit breaker in Autumn 2020,) but also because its scientific advisers - who are fixated primarily on suppressing the virus rather than the broader effects of restrictions, which is after all their role in all of this - will be telling it that we daren't let go.
If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.
I can see the Tories holding on in West Bromwich as the West Midlands very much seems like 'the new heartland' for the Tories but most of those other places, particularly in the North I'm more inclined to agree.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
@FrankBooth have just read elsewhere that the booster booking website may now be taking appointments for thirtysomethings. Give it a try and let us know what it says.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
You're one of the few reasonable Brexiteers I've ever spoken to
You need to get out more. There's plenty out there.
I don't doubt it - and I wasn't trying to imply there weren't many. I do think though that like the Remain side, the worst are the loudest.
I don't know if you're a Brexiteer but you're a reasonable chap too
I'm not a Brexiter, I'm quite against it. But I don't like the way people allow it to define them and mould their opinions about other things. And if someone is wrong (in my view) about one policy area then they might still be right about something else, and vice versa.
This is not a controversial view, I know, but one that deserves a more vocal and robust defence. Centrists of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but the fundamentalists on either side.
I completely agree with this.
As I pointed out a few times before, there seems to be a real misunderstanding by a few of what this new Tory coalition really wants. I am not convinced it is pro the Rishi Sunak model of economics, nor the Truss. I'm also not of the view they're anti lockdowns or anti-vaxers yet some people seem to think they are, which I think is very insulting.
The Tory coalition to me seems to be fundamentally at odds with itself - and we are seeing it now begin to collapse back the bedrock of 29% (1997)
The Tory coalition agreed about 2 things. Pro-Brexit, anti-Corbyn. They disagree on most everything else.
They also agree on tilting the economy towards those with assets - homeowners, pensioners, landlords, etc - and away from those reliant on selling their labour. Hence the increase in National Insurance rates, and the inevitable pre-election cut to Income Tax.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
@FrankBooth have just read elsewhere that the booster booking website may now be taking appointments for thirtysomethings. Give it a try and let us know what it says.
In England? I'm in Wales.
Yes, I am fully confident that the booking attempt by a thirtysomething in question was made in England.
Still, give it a go regardless. The worst that the computer can do is say no.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I don’t agree. To me this question is like the Master and Commander scene, where they were judging the lesser of two weevils. Only in this instance swapping the weevils with cunts.
Back later a live band is about to start. Dare I say I am at a party 💃🏻
I think I just heard Christina Pagel saying on BBC news that the 25k-75k deaths "model" takes no account of the severity of Omicron. So they presumably are assuming it is as deadly as Delta. When asked about the apparently low hospitalisation rate in SA, she put it down to the prevalence of prior infection and hence natural immunity. So the best case scenario is not a best case scenario.
They may have more natural immunity but we have more vaccinations. Difficult to make a direct comparison but how can you predict deaths if you have no idea of severity?
I feel this is a bit like the financial crisis. lots of people with mathematical models to prove things who nonetheless didn't really understand economics or finance. Where are the actual epidemiologists and virologists?
If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.
Yes but the interesting thing about the clown’s emerging toxicity is that it plays most badly in those middle class seats where there is less sneaking admiration for a prime minister with dodgy standards.
The United States pays its debts when they are due. That’s why today, I signed a bill to fast-track the process to raise our debt limit. https://t.co/Rx4MNC1XS9
I think Joe you mean you haven't repaid, so need to take out more debt...
Experts are starting to contemplate the possibility of US inflation over 10% not so far into 2022.
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
I think he is mistaken here. If i remember correctly there was report of a technical glitch the other day, which is probably that 45%. Most of the week it has been 25-30%.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
As much as I dislike the labour party, which I quit several years ago; I have a lot of admiration for Keir Starmer. What he has achieved is incredible. He has stuck through the Corbyn era to become leader, purged the front bench of Corbynites and made the labour party electable again; as reflected in these polls. I would guess that a lot people will ultimately vote labour because Starmer just seems more sensible and competent. I'd said before that the Boris and Trump epitomised disillisionment with politics and Starmer was the antithesis to that, but people may well now be concluding that, in the end, politics isn't actually the joke it was before and the problems the country faces merits a serious person as PM. The tories would do well to adapt to this logic by getting rid of the Boris and Carrie circus and fielding their own serious and sensible leader.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
@FrankBooth have just read elsewhere that the booster booking website may now be taking appointments for thirtysomethings. Give it a try and let us know what it says.
In England? I'm in Wales.
Hospitals in Chester, Hereford, Shrewsbury are vaccinating tons of Welsh folk.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
@FrankBooth have just read elsewhere that the booster booking website may now be taking appointments for thirtysomethings. Give it a try and let us know what it says.
In England? I'm in Wales.
Hospitals in Chester, Hereford, Shrewsbury are vaccinating tons of Welsh folk.
If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.
I can see the Tories holding on in West Bromwich as the West Midlands very much seems like 'the new heartland' for the Tories but most of those other places, particularly in the North I'm more inclined to agree.
Think they'd pick up East. Only a 1.5k majority, not much of a Brexit Party presence there, and Galloway picked up several hundred voters there who probably would have voted Labour otherwise. Dudley North, on the other hand, is a WM seat which looks much trickier for Labour to get back. The Tories have an 11k majority there, now.
The United States pays its debts when they are due. That’s why today, I signed a bill to fast-track the process to raise our debt limit. https://t.co/Rx4MNC1XS9
I think Joe you mean you haven't repaid, so need to take out more debt...
Experts are starting to contemplate the possibility of US inflation over 10% not so far into 2022.
That can't be right, his advisers said inflation has been solved in the west and this blip was merely a short term transitory effect.
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
This is a serious question (although it sounds sarcastic given the need to ask it) - Has anyone actually died from Omicron in this country? I have not heard of any . Honestly the hysteria is fking ridiculous
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
I actually dispute Boris decisions have been purely popularity related. If they were, it is clear the polling is lockdowns are very popular, especially among his base. But each time he has been later than he needs to be. The easiest thing to do each time would have been to lock down earlier and harder. Same as now, it would be easier to have gone harder than the nonsense Plan B, and clearly SAGE want him to do so.
I don't think he has many scrupples or principles, but the lockdown does conflict him, and that is why he trolleys, he tries to avoid the one thing that works at all costs.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I don’t agree. To me this question is like the Master and Commander scene, where they were judging the lesser of two weevils. Only in this instance swapping the weevils with cunts.
Back later a live band is about to start. Dare I say I am at a party 💃🏻
A nice literary allusion! Or was it in the film?
Both - from O'Brian's The Fortune of War IIRC and the Master and Commander film of course.
This is a serious question (although it sounds sarcastic given the need to ask it) - Has anyone actually died from Omicron in this country? I have not heard of any . Honestly the hysteria is fking ridiculous
This is a serious question (although it sounds sarcastic given the need to ask it) - Has anyone actually died from Omicron in this country? I have not heard of any . Honestly the hysteria is fking ridiculous
It's far too early. There is reason for optimism, but a lack of confirmed Omicron deaths in the UK is not one of them
This is a serious question (although it sounds sarcastic given the need to ask it) - Has anyone actually died from Omicron in this country? I have not heard of any . Honestly the hysteria is fking ridiculous
It is genuinely too soon. It’s only been known for a couple of weeks, and death from Covid takes time.
No information has been available for three weeks about the location or condition of Republican state Sen. Doug Ericksen of Ferndale, who was reportedly being treated for COVID-19 at a Florida hospital after testing positive for the virus in El Salvador.
Calls to Ericksen have not been returned recently . . . [and] his public Facebook page . . . has not been updated recently.
Ericksen’s legislative staff members have told The Bellingham Herald that they can’t comment. . .
Brad Hendrickson, secretary of the Senate, told The Herald on Friday, Dec. 10, that Ericksen hasn’t reached out to the Senate administration. . . . Whatcom Republicans Chairman John Ramsey told The Herald that he’d heard nothing about Ericksen’s condition.
On Nov. 19, Ericksen was reported in stable condition at a Fort Lauderdale hospital and improving after receiving treatment for COVID-19, according to former state Rep. Luanne Van Werven, who said she had spoken with the Ericksen family.
In a text message Friday, Van Werven told The Herald that she had no new information and it would be best to contact Ericksen’s family. The Herald has made multiple unsuccessful attempts to reach the family.
Ericksen wasn’t listed as a patient in large Fort Lauderdale hospitals on Friday. . . .
“I took a trip to El Salvador and tested positive for COVID shortly after I arrived,” Ericksen said in a [November 11] message to members of the state House and Senate. He arranged a medevac flight from El Salvador that weekend, Van Werven said.
While Ericksen has been ailing, several parts of his 42nd Legislative District were hit by catastrophic flooding that damaged some 1,900 homes, businesses and other buildings. His legislative counterparts, Rep. Alicia Rule, D-Blaine, and Rep. Sharon Shewmake, D-Bellingham, have helped with cleanup efforts and have promised aid to the flood-stricken communities of Everson, Nooksack and Sumas. Gov. Jay Inslee visited Whatcom County to see the devastation first-hand.
In November, Shewmake said she will run in the August 2022 primary for Ericksen’s state Senate seat. Ericksen’s staff was unable to say if he planned to seek a fourth Senate term in 2022. He has been elected to the state Senate three times, most recently in 2018. . .
Ericksen said in December that he would introduce a state law to prevent vaccine mandates of the kind issued in August by Inslee, several counties and cities, and private employers. . . .
SSI - Ericksen's last re-election in 2018 was VERY close, in fact there was a mandatory hand recount. Redistricting has not altered his legislative district too much electorally-speaking, it's still a marginal, swing district, one of just a handful in the state. So the 2022 races here will be VERY interesting.
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
This is someone (Corbyn) who won't even say whether or not he has taken the vaccine. I think he is sincere in his beliefs and respect what he does as a backbench MP; but I just don't believe he is up to being the most important decision maker in the country, in a pandemic.
This is a serious question (although it sounds sarcastic given the need to ask it) - Has anyone actually died from Omicron in this country? I have not heard of any . Honestly the hysteria is fking ridiculous
It is genuinely too soon. It’s only been known for a couple of weeks, and death from Covid takes time.
ok hospitalised then? This is beyond a joke .i am living in an alice in wonderland country (other countries seem to know its not a big deal)
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
Under Labour the approach to precautions and restrictions to combat the spread of the virus would surely have been more consistent and timely. But the reservations fall into two areas:
- the one good thing about the Tories is that they share liberals’ instinctive fear of over-powerful central government, whereas Labour would have revelled in imposing greater restrictions for longer, and we’d probably have people burning tyres in Trafalgar Square by now;
- Labour’s disdain for the private sector would probably have hindered our vaccination programme. Whereas the Tories overshot by entrusting production of vital PPE to various mates of Tory MPs with business experience limited to being a pub landlord and whose medical experience was zero, Labour would have tried to manage and control everything within the public sector, with different but equally serious downsides.
This is a serious question (although it sounds sarcastic given the need to ask it) - Has anyone actually died from Omicron in this country? I have not heard of any . Honestly the hysteria is fking ridiculous
It's far too early. There is reason for optimism, but a lack of confirmed Omicron deaths in the UK is not one of them
No? bloody hell I thought that it might be good news . I repeat i am incredulous at the stupidity of people, many of whom seem to have power to make decisions
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
I have had more dangerous curries
No, you haven't.
To be fair he may have had some horrendous curries
Its amazing that people on here can call a general election from an exit poll and a result from sunderland South but need to wait more than two weeks (and god knows how many more in SA etc ) to realise this virus is weaker than Charles Paultrey
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
I have had more dangerous curries
No, you haven't.
To be fair he may have had some horrendous curries
Yes, but a life-threatening haemorrhage of the rectum? Or aspiration of vomit? The mind boggles.
I think I just heard Christina Pagel saying on BBC news that the 25k-75k deaths "model" takes no account of the severity of Omicron. So they presumably are assuming it is as deadly as Delta. When asked about the apparently low hospitalisation rate in SA, she put it down to the prevalence of prior infection and hence natural immunity. So the best case scenario is not a best case scenario.
Since all her models have proven wrong, some by a factor of 130%, her opinion is pretty well worthless.
It's outrageous that the BBC are giving a platform to somebody whose track record is scarcely better than that of Roy Meadow.
This is a serious question (although it sounds sarcastic given the need to ask it) - Has anyone actually died from Omicron in this country? I have not heard of any . Honestly the hysteria is fking ridiculous
Off topic, but I hope you’ve checked your bet with Ladbrokes? Reclaim and Reform are different political parties.
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
Under Labour the approach to precautions and restrictions to combat the spread of the virus would surely have been more consistent and timely. But the reservations fall into two areas:
- the one good thing about the Tories is that they share liberals’ instinctive fear of over-powerful central government, whereas Labour would have revelled in imposing greater restrictions for longer, and we’d probably have people burning tyres in Trafalgar Square by now;
- Labour’s disdain for the private sector would probably have hindered our vaccination programme. Whereas the Tories overshot by entrusting production of vital PPE to various mates of Tory MPs with business experience limited to being a pub landlord and whose medical experience was zero, Labour would have tried to manage and control everything within the public sector, with different but equally serious downsides.
On your last point, I think you're saying that we wouldn't have seen the same level of corruption and cronyism under Labour. I agree.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
@FrankBooth have just read elsewhere that the booster booking website may now be taking appointments for thirtysomethings. Give it a try and let us know what it says.
In England? I'm in Wales.
Yes, I am fully confident that the booking attempt by a thirtysomething in question was made in England.
Still, give it a go regardless. The worst that the computer can do is say no.
GET IN! YOU ARE A LEGEND SIR.
Booked for next Sunday.
PS - sorry to be all SeanT Leon about this but I've been longing to book that for ages especially since my father is ill and I'm having to spend a lot of time with him.
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
As much as I dislike the labour party, which I quit several years ago; I have a lot of admiration for Keir Starmer. What he has achieved is incredible. He has stuck through the Corbyn era to become leader, purged the front bench of Corbynites and made the labour party electable again; as reflected in these polls. I would guess that a lot people will ultimately vote labour because Starmer just seems more sensible and competent. I'd said before that the Boris and Trump epitomised disillisionment with politics and Starmer was the antithesis to that, but people may well now be concluding that, in the end, politics isn't actually the joke it was before and the problems the country faces merits a serious person as PM. The tories would do well to adapt to this logic by getting rid of the Boris and Carrie circus and fielding their own serious and sensible leader.
For that picture Hunt v Starmer is the obvious fixture. Everyone else is either too close to Boris, mad, or no longer an MP. Rishi is next best, but both flashy and close to the outgoing regime.
I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas
"Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."
It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.
My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.
Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.
Welcome to the dark side.
I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
Under Labour the approach to precautions and restrictions to combat the spread of the virus would surely have been more consistent and timely. But the reservations fall into two areas:
- the one good thing about the Tories is that they share liberals’ instinctive fear of over-powerful central government, whereas Labour would have revelled in imposing greater restrictions for longer, and we’d probably have people burning tyres in Trafalgar Square by now;
- Labour’s disdain for the private sector would probably have hindered our vaccination programme. Whereas the Tories overshot by entrusting production of vital PPE to various mates of Tory MPs with business experience limited to being a pub landlord and whose medical experience was zero, Labour would have tried to manage and control everything within the public sector, with different but equally serious downsides.
On your last point, I think you're saying that we wouldn't have seen the same level of corruption and cronyism under Labour. I agree.
We wouldn’t, but equally they would likely have been less willing to find someone like Bingham and her team and let them get on with it without interference. OK, this happened because the scientists saw what an abject shambles Tory politicians had made of PPE procurement and said “not again”, but Labour might not have surrendered so meekly to this as Johnson did.
Its amazing that people on here can call a general election from an exit poll and a result from sunderland South but need to wait more than two weeks (and god knows how many more in SA etc ) to realise this virus is weaker than Charles Paultrey
Tying together sequencing and individual patient records is quite a job. Real potential for data lag.
I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas
"Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."
You already have chips on every number on the green felt, and really don’t need to post any more and can wait for the wheel to spin confident that, whatever happens, you already have it covered. You’re only f**ked if it comes up 00.
Comments
Social democracy is about pursuing capitalism for the good of all, it is not about destroying and replacing it. And for me that is why I very much disliked much of the 2019 Labour manifesto - the 2017 manifesto I thought was good.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
Now have a slot on Friday instead of after Christmas. Much appreciated.
* Sorry. Borrow from the independent Bank of England
They disagree on most everything else.
Here is the full Wikipedia entry for Beauchamp Bagenal, for edification of PBers:
Beauchamp Bagenal (1741 – 1 May 1802) was an Irish rake, buck[clarification needed], duellist and politician.
He was born in County Carlow in 1741, son of Walter Bagenal, and his second wife Eleanor Beauchamp, and inherited the family estates aged 11. Bagenal gained a reputation as a hell raiser and serial heartbreaker, and was reportedly described as the handsomest man in Ireland.[1] According to Jonah Barrington, on his Grand Tour, Bagenal:
fought a prince, jilted a princess, intoxicated the Doge of Venice, carried off a duchess from Madrid, scaled the walls of a convent in Lisbon and fought a duel in Paris,[2]
The jilted Princess referred to above was Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz, afterwards married to George III of Great Britain
At his home, Dunleckney, Muine Bheag, County Carlow, he earned the nickname "King" Bagenal based on his lavish entertaining and the autocratic manner with which he ran what was virtually a court. Meals were "primarily drinking bouts. At table, he kept a brace of duelling pistols handy, one for tapping the barrel of claret, the other for dealing with any of his guests who failed to drink enough to send him reeling from the table. Dinner was followed by compulsory all night revels."[1]
Bagenal was less violent than his later reputation. There is no proof that he shot all, or even many, of his guests. He fought as few as a dozen duels, a derisory number compared to the great duellists of his day. One of the twelve was against his own cousin, Bagenal Harvey. Harvey fired first, but missed, to Bagenal's delight. "You damn you villain? Do you know you had like to kill your own godfather? Go back to Dunleckney, you dog, and have a good breakfast ready for us. I only wanted to see if you were stout."[1]
A number of other anecdotes of Bagenal's wildness and eccentricity exist online.
Bagenal was lame, and therefore, when fighting had to lean against a tombstone. He represented Enniscorthy in the Irish House of Commons from 1761 to 1768. He sat then as Member of Parliament (MP) for Carlow County between 1768 and 1776 and again between 1778 and 1783.
By his wife Maria he had three children; he had at least one illegitimate child, Sarah.
References
Donaldson, William. Rogues, Villains & Eccentrics: An A-Z of Roguish Britons Through the Ages pp. 38–9, Phoenix, London, 2002
cited in Donaldson, in , William. Rogues, Villains & Eccentrics: An A-Z of Roguish Britons Through the Ages, Phoenix, London, 2002
https://twitter.com/PA/status/1469729030589009927
It has never been hard to find people with a bad word to say about a man who has left a trail of broken friendships, colleagues, families and lovers in his wake. Time and time again, however, he defied the rules, including those of political gravity, to achieve a landslide election victory two years ago today, his crowning glory.
Now unforced errors over the past two months — the consequences of his flawed character, according to critics — might have put his premiership in mortal danger. How bad is the crisis? How did it happen? Is this the endgame for Johnson or will he once again fight free?
The stairs to the prime minister’s family flat start in a hall adjacent to the Downing Street press office, scene of the infamous Christmas party on December 18.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-is-the-ultimate-escape-artist-even-he-will-struggle-to-wriggle-out-of-this-one-989xrw7lh
BIB - Is the point I've been banging on all week, even if Boris Johnson didn't attend the party, he would need to be deaf and blind to not know there was a party of 30+ happening downstairs.
1) Is Boris now finished so that it is a question of time, he can't recover
and
2) Does Boris think this is the case either right now or soon.
Most people think (1) is true. FWIW I think there is just a tiny (2-5% chance?) chance that recovery could happen. (Win NS, Xmas goes OK, another Black Swan shows up, favourable to Boris, Mail Sun and Tele decide to back him)
(2) is important. Unless Boris thinks he is finished, he isn't. And when he does decide it's over he will need to maximise his legacy and his future. What effect does this have on his strategy? It's guesswork but I am not convinced that Boris thinks it's over. I suspect he will give it at least till the end of January to see where the land lies. This side of NS, Xmas, knowing where Omicron variant takes us will be too early.
Evening Sir. I take it you are a somewhat wealthier Stodge this evening?
Thanks for the tip.
Therefore, the obvious concern is that we're dealing with a highly transmissible variant against which those who received a double helping of AZ in particular (which is the bulk of UK vaccine recipients between 40 and 70) will be defenceless against initial infection with, unless they've already had boosters. A large fraction of those of us in that age group, especially at the lower end, have yet to do so.
From there, mathematics takes over. Even if Omicron causes a smaller per capita number of severe disease cases requiring hospitalisation than Delta, if we have a large enough number of cases all at once this could easily still result in the number of admissions threatening to bust the healthcare system. At that point, more severe restrictions - up to and including lockdown - come back onto the table.
Some details available here:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59619224
https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469693591299710980?s=21
If it’s anything like that in Britain, or even better as we are more jabbed, then we’re going to be fine.
Arm a little sore, but OK.
City centre heaving with some fair thing on. Only way to get about was wall in the road dodging buses.
And then back to the station. Aberdeen express booked for 4-car HST, with a 2-car DMU working it. Arrived on the platform 8 minutes before departure to find it crush loaded with people left on the platform.
Bravo ScotRail borrowing a 4-car set arriving in from Perth. Now 6-car there is bags of room and I don't have to worry about people. Does feel like I am sculking home in disgrace though.
Hey and I think we have literally 'been here before', haven't we? I sense you're a particular old poster back with new name. I won't say which in case you don't want that. Plus I could be wrong (but I think not).
The United States pays its debts when they are due. That’s why today, I signed a bill to fast-track the process to raise our debt limit. https://t.co/Rx4MNC1XS9
I think Joe you mean you haven't repaid, so need to take out more debt...
Back later a live band is about to start. Dare I say I am at a party 💃🏻
As i said before, my take is I reckon a culture of piss up in the office became a thing...then there was can we have a Christmas do, Boris has given it if I never said you could, but if one was to occur i never knew it happened.
No comment
Also, which publisher/producer gets rights to OP's tell-all autobiography, working title "A Shropshire Lad"?
Still, give it a go regardless. The worst that the computer can do is say no.
Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
2/
?????
I feel this is a bit like the financial crisis. lots of people with mathematical models to prove things who nonetheless didn't really understand economics or finance. Where are the actual epidemiologists and virologists?
Dudley North, on the other hand, is a WM seat which looks much trickier for Labour to get back. The Tories have an 11k majority there, now.
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
I don't think he has many scrupples or principles, but the lockdown does conflict him, and that is why he trolleys, he tries to avoid the one thing that works at all costs.
Bellingham [WA] Herald - No word on condition of Whatcom state Sen. Doug Ericksen after COVID treatment
https://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/politics-government/article256465666.html
No information has been available for three weeks about the location or condition of Republican state Sen. Doug Ericksen of Ferndale, who was reportedly being treated for COVID-19 at a Florida hospital after testing positive for the virus in El Salvador.
Calls to Ericksen have not been returned recently . . . [and] his public Facebook page . . . has not been updated recently.
Ericksen’s legislative staff members have told The Bellingham Herald that they can’t comment. . .
Brad Hendrickson, secretary of the Senate, told The Herald on Friday, Dec. 10, that Ericksen hasn’t reached out to the Senate administration. . . . Whatcom Republicans Chairman John Ramsey told The Herald that he’d heard nothing about Ericksen’s condition.
On Nov. 19, Ericksen was reported in stable condition at a Fort Lauderdale hospital and improving after receiving treatment for COVID-19, according to former state Rep. Luanne Van Werven, who said she had spoken with the Ericksen family.
In a text message Friday, Van Werven told The Herald that she had no new information and it would be best to contact Ericksen’s family. The Herald has made multiple unsuccessful attempts to reach the family.
Ericksen wasn’t listed as a patient in large Fort Lauderdale hospitals on Friday. . . .
“I took a trip to El Salvador and tested positive for COVID shortly after I arrived,” Ericksen said in a [November 11] message to members of the state House and Senate. He arranged a medevac flight from El Salvador that weekend, Van Werven said.
While Ericksen has been ailing, several parts of his 42nd Legislative District were hit by catastrophic flooding that damaged some 1,900 homes, businesses and other buildings. His legislative counterparts, Rep. Alicia Rule, D-Blaine, and Rep. Sharon Shewmake, D-Bellingham, have helped with cleanup efforts and have promised aid to the flood-stricken communities of Everson, Nooksack and Sumas. Gov. Jay Inslee visited Whatcom County to see the devastation first-hand.
In November, Shewmake said she will run in the August 2022 primary for Ericksen’s state Senate seat. Ericksen’s staff was unable to say if he planned to seek a fourth Senate term in 2022. He has been elected to the state Senate three times, most recently in 2018. . .
Ericksen said in December that he would introduce a state law to prevent vaccine mandates of the kind issued in August by Inslee, several counties and cities, and private employers. . . .
SSI - Ericksen's last re-election in 2018 was VERY close, in fact there was a mandatory hand recount. Redistricting has not altered his legislative district too much electorally-speaking, it's still a marginal, swing district, one of just a handful in the state. So the 2022 races here will be VERY interesting.
- the one good thing about the Tories is that they share liberals’ instinctive fear of over-powerful central government, whereas Labour would have revelled in imposing greater restrictions for longer, and we’d probably have people burning tyres in Trafalgar Square by now;
- Labour’s disdain for the private sector would probably have hindered our vaccination programme. Whereas the Tories overshot by entrusting production of vital PPE to various mates of Tory MPs with business experience limited to being a pub landlord and whose medical experience was zero, Labour would have tried to manage and control everything within the public sector, with different but equally serious downsides.
It's outrageous that the BBC are giving a platform to somebody whose track record is scarcely better than that of Roy Meadow.
Booked for next Sunday.
PS - sorry to be all
SeanTLeon about this but I've been longing to book that for ages especially since my father is ill and I'm having to spend a lot of time with him.Gosh it would be dull.
"Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."
https://twitter.com/gnuseibeh/status/1469735787491213312?s=20