Just as the sun rises in the East every morning, I see that the Met's investigation into the murders of 4 young gay men has been found to be wholly and serially incompetent by the inquest.
Listen to the report on WATO. The list of the Met's failures is endless. It is appalling.
FFS! When will someone give the Met the kicking it so richly deserves.
This comment is key from SA Health Minister on the increase in hospitalisations.
"It looks like it is purely because of the numbers rather than as a result of any severity of the variant itself."
Dr John's video yesterday was *very* bullish about Omicron spreading rapidly, driving out Delta, but being very mild. He reckoned in a couple of weeks time the pandemic could effectively be over, but it will be squeaky bum time until then.
However, he has been wrong before, notably on Ivermectin
This comment is key from SA Health Minister on the increase in hospitalisations.
"It looks like it is purely because of the numbers rather than as a result of any severity of the variant itself."
Lol
The rise in hospitalisations is purely because there is a rise in hospitalisations
The fact I am drunk is because I have drunk many drinks, and has nothing to do with the brand of rum
What they meant, was that because so many people have Omicron, that lots of people with unrelated conditions where coming in to hospitals for appendicitis, or broken legs, or whatever and while in they rea all tested for and testing positive.
Looking at Sturgeon’s remarks, we are so going into lockdown. The only question is before-or-after Xmas
South Africa is not in lockdown and there is little pressure on their hospitals.
Only a few per cent of the South African population is over 65.
How can people post so much and know so pitifully little?
The SA Health Minister said this, do you know more than him?
I'm more of a dove on restrictions than Chris but he has a good point.
South Africa has different demography to the UK. What might be right for them may not be for us. That has nothing to do with what the SA health Minister does or doesn't know, does or doesn't say.
SA had very high hospitlisations during the Delta wave, why was that?
The front line doctors there are saying over and over that Omicron is nothing like Delta. SA had a very harsh lockdown during Delta, yet are not having one during Omicron. Why is that?
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
I said a couple of months ago that I thought all the criticism of Starmer was misplaced and that I could see him winning a majority. Now admittedly he is currently lucky in his opponent but luck is not enough. He has to make sure he and the Labour party are seen as fit for Government where clearly Johnson is not. I think he is doing that. Still probably not able to vote for him myself as a matter of principle but I certainly don't now fear a Labour Government in the way I do a continuation of Johnson in power.
The next election will be very different to 2019.
The test, though, will be how many people move from "I wouldn't mind too much if people voted Labour" to actually voting Labour. If there are lots of people in your position, it will be like the Lincoln Project almost was in the US - principled, admirable, but nearly not achieving the objective of actually defeating Trump.
Yep. In terms of electing a new administration it is a binary choice. You vote for the candidate capable of beating the incumbent Party or you don't. Abstaining or third party has precisely half the effect. From the mood music on here from disaffected Tories I fear a 1992. Each one using 50% of their determination to see the back of Boris.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
I like the gin and tonic analogy. Instead of debating whether the gin is 40% or 37.5%, the key question is whether there are 1, 2 or 10 Fever tree tonic waters in there.
The tonic water is a great metaphor in another way too, because there's only so much liquid you can drink before getting bloated and slowing down. Likewise only as many infections a population can get through before it starts to approach herd immunity again.
Yes it’s a good analogy
But you also have to factor in how fast you drink - the speed of the variant’s spread, the doubling.
Omicron’s doubling speed is eye watering, so even though we are drinking “weaker” gin and tonics, with more liquid, we are sinking them like a Downing Street staffer
Eventually, as you say, our bladders will protest and say no more but by then we might have fallen on Carrie’s dog and vomited on the PM
ie the wave will have crushed the NHS
Relatedly
“Scotland facing "tsunami" of Omicron cases, with the variant likely to replace Delta as the dominant form of the virus within days, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warns”
Yes that seems to be the afeared scenario. I've been making the same "its just maths" point in less colourful language for a while - a huge spike in infections coupled with a lower sickness rate still equals enough sick people to sink the NHS.
Point is that we still don't know. They needed until next week to model what it looks like. But restrictions have been thrown in at 5 minutes notice this week to try and distract people from BJ and his crimes.
For me, the WFH and masks measures are reasonable on the precautionary principle - potent new variant, act to mitigate whilst the data is crunched, then keep or drop depending on results. But the vaxports thing is silly and fails the cost/benefit test. And I agree it looks like the whole exercise was rushed in order to distract. Hope not but the evidence rather points that way.
This comment is key from SA Health Minister on the increase in hospitalisations.
"It looks like it is purely because of the numbers rather than as a result of any severity of the variant itself."
Lol
The rise in hospitalisations is purely because there is a rise in hospitalisations
The fact I am drunk is because I have drunk many drinks, and has nothing to do with the brand of rum
What they meant, was that because so many people have Omicron, that lots of people with unrelated conditions where coming in to hospitals for appendicitis, or broken legs, or whatever and while in they rea all tested for and testing positive.
As I said, there is lots of harmless Fever Tree tonic in this gin and tonic. And the next gin and tonic. But they also contain a potent slug of gin. And we are downing them fast
Looking at Sturgeon’s remarks, we are so going into lockdown. The only question is before-or-after Xmas
I said the other day that I thought Witty had pushed for a lot harder restrictions, clearly signally the just WFH order wasn't his decision and look at these scary graphs from SA.
“Emergency Cobra Meeting”
“12:45 Gove to chair Cobra meeting on Covid with Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish first ministers
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished, and No 10 announced that Michael Gove, in his capacity as minister for intergovernmental relations, will chair a meeting of the government’s emergency Cobra meeting today to discuss Covid. The first ministers and deputy first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will participate.
I will post more from the lobby soon.“
The news has gotten worse. Plan C very soon? Early school closures? Then lockdown after Xmas
The plan B announcement did not change the narrative enough to get Boris off the front pages, so they are going with this more like.
Looking at Sturgeon’s remarks, we are so going into lockdown. The only question is before-or-after Xmas
South Africa is not in lockdown and there is little pressure on their hospitals.
Only a few per cent of the South African population is over 65.
How can people post so much and know so pitifully little?
The SA Health Minister said this, do you know more than him?
I'm more of a dove on restrictions than Chris but he has a good point.
South Africa has different demography to the UK. What might be right for them may not be for us. That has nothing to do with what the SA health Minister does or doesn't know, does or doesn't say.
SA had very high hospitlisations during the Delta wave, why was that?
The front line doctors there are saying over and over that Omicron is nothing like Delta. SA had a very harsh lockdown during Delta, yet are not having one during Omicron. Why is that?
Indeed. SA also has a far lower vaccination rate than us, which Chris doesn’t mention.
Regarding the doubling rate of Omicron, it can only continue for so long.
Currently 1 in 60 people in England are infected with Covid (pre-Omicron) as per the latest ONS study.
The question is what is the realistic ceiling for the proportion of a highly vaccinated population that has a lot of prior Covid-19 exposure? I think 1 in 10 school children is the highest we've seen in any subset so far.
This, by the way, is the same SA boffin who first nailed the scary extra transmissibility of Omicron in SA. Many scoffed. He was right
“Trajectory of Omicron in the UK (doubling every 1.6 days) is outpacing earlier model projections for US Omicron cases (2.25-3.3 day doubling). Assumption is no changes in NPIs or behaviors.”
I'm a bit skeptical that some of this might be testing - i.e. we are looking for it now, and finding lots. Not disputing that it is here and spreading fast.
This comment is key from SA Health Minister on the increase in hospitalisations.
"It looks like it is purely because of the numbers rather than as a result of any severity of the variant itself."
Lol
The rise in hospitalisations is purely because there is a rise in hospitalisations
The fact I am drunk is because I have drunk many drinks, and has nothing to do with the brand of rum
What they meant, was that because so many people have Omicron, that lots of people with unrelated conditions where coming in to hospitals for appendicitis, or broken legs, or whatever and while in they rea all tested for and testing positive.
As I said, there is lots of harmless Fever Tree tonic in this gin and tonic. And the next gin and tonic. But they also contain a potent slug of gin. And we are downing them fast
If the gin and tonic is going to get you, at least go down drinking the good stuff. Isle of Harris, Caorunn or Darnleys.
As of tonight, King Co Elections has just 41 valid votes left to count. A couple hundred more may come in over the next week and be counted, but will NOT change the outcome.
Beyond automatic recount range (0.5% margin) even if there were automatic recounts on recalls, which under WA state law there are not. Recall sponsors could still request - and pay for - a recount. But hard to think of why this would be likely to change the result. Election workers actually did a hand check of three ballot batches, and it matched the machine count perfectly. And recent recounts - including three for the 2021 general election - have shown little to no changes.
I remember you mentioning that Amazon played a a role in this recall. How much influence do you think they had in the end?
Amazon played way less of a part in the recall, than they did in the 2019 election, primary and especially general. It was public backlash against their lavish anti-Sawant spending in 2019 that saved her in the general that year.
This year their role (read funding) was much more muted. Though business did spend over a million trying to get her out; she raised & spent equivalent to stay in. Her base was clearly motivated by the anti-corporate argument, as well as some swing voters with a lingering hangover from 2019.
Think the X factor this very special election, however, was reluctance of some voters who are tired of her or even opposed - folks who supported her in the past but not now - to chuck her out in the middle of a term she won fair & square. Especially as the charges against her in the recall were NOT exactly capital crimes.
As it proved, did NOT require a large number who felt this way, to swing the recall vote in her favor.
Wes Streeting who is only 38 looks like a future leader and PM
Wes's handicap is that he's audibly from London. And being from London seems to be toxic in political leaders at the moment. That Londoners don't count and are out of touch with "real people" seems to be the one thing everyone on in the country outside the capital can safely unite on. No doubt the Tories would go one further and claim he's from Islington.
Yes, you see that sort of moronic prejudice on PB. @SandyRentool is a prime example of it.
Good morning!
It is all about the optics. The perception that politicians in the north London bubble, shopping at Waitrose and attending dinner parties, are totally out of touch with the residents of an estate* in County Durham and prioritise issues that mean nothing to voters in the real world.
*Housing estate, not country estate.
Ah, Waitrose, we have precious few of them in the North East and none in Durham
Is Hexham in Durham?
Gallowgate will be getting upset. Hexham is the jewel in the crown that is Northumberland. and it has a Waitrose. Apart from that affectation it's great. Luckily for actual people Lidl open up in 2022.
Scored very highly indeed in some recent survey of "best places in the UK to live", AIR?
Yep. If you are over 70 and loaded. Not if you want anything to do. Or be out past 5 pm. Or be employed. Or have kids who want an education or to be entertained within 20 miles of your home. Or don't have a car. I could continue...
Not much change since the Romans left, then.
As Al Murray, I believe, has observed, the North East is there so that those Scots who come marauding across the border are sufficiently discouraged at how s**t it is in England that they return home rather than continuing south.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
So glad I spoke out to appeal for your safe return.
If what you were saying was true then there would not be any such new powers being raised in the nationality and borders bill. Put the boot into Blair all you like - he's 15 years into the past. This is about this government, this home secretary and the new powers in this bill.
Me too.
There are no such new powers in the bill. That's the point.
What's being changed is how those powers are operated. No new powers are being granted.
If that's supposed to be a defence of a bill which makes the operation of already arbitrary powers easier and less capable of being challenged, then it's a very poor one.
Just as the sun rises in the East every morning, I see that the Met's investigation into the murders of 4 young gay men has been found to be wholly and serially incompetent by the inquest.
Listen to the report on WATO. The list of the Met's failures is endless. It is appalling.
FFS! When will someone give the Met the kicking it so richly deserves.
Seems highly unlikely under the current administration (or indeed the current mayoralty).
Comments
Listen to the report on WATO. The list of the Met's failures is endless. It is appalling.
FFS! When will someone give the Met the kicking it so richly deserves.
However, he has been wrong before, notably on Ivermectin
The front line doctors there are saying over and over that Omicron is nothing like Delta. SA had a very harsh lockdown during Delta, yet are not having one during Omicron. Why is that?
Abstaining or third party has precisely half the effect.
From the mood music on here from disaffected Tories I fear a 1992.
Each one using 50% of their determination to see the back of Boris.
He is a troll I’m afraid.
NEW THREAD
Currently 1 in 60 people in England are infected with Covid (pre-Omicron) as per the latest ONS study.
The question is what is the realistic ceiling for the proportion of a highly vaccinated population that has a lot of prior Covid-19 exposure? I think 1 in 10 school children is the highest we've seen in any subset so far.
Cheers!