Nothing much productive in the bedrooms judging by their population pyramid.
There's a frightening pensions timebomb in that population pyramid. I hadn't realised how late Italy's post-war baby boom was - The 1960s rather than late 40s and 50s. Massive numbers of retirements due in the next couple of decades, and nobody to enter the workforce at the other end.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
Because he looks like a Bond villain.
Also recently booed by his own backbenches over Plan B. If Boris is defenestrated rapidly, the timing is off for him.
They won't be booing him when he's feeding them to sharks with fricking laser beams.
You'd need a very powerful laser to operate optical tweezers capable of picking up Tory backbenchers and dumping them in the shark tank!
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
Excellent header, but not really a " slippery slope". Arbitrarily depriving people of their nationality is in a pattern of autocratic moves from a profoundly despotic government.
Just in the past week, the same people have inserted last minute amendments to the Policing bill that will potentially make most of public protest a punishable offence. It's effectively at the discretion of the police or the Home secretary whether such an offence has occurred. All accountability for the use of stop and search is also ended.
Also this week was the floated idea that Ministers can strike down court judgements on whim.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
So glad I spoke out to appeal for your safe return.
If what you were saying was true then there would not be any such new powers being raised in the nationality and borders bill. Put the boot into Blair all you like - he's 15 years into the past. This is about this government, this home secretary and the new powers in this bill.
Me too.
There are no such new powers in the bill. That's the point.
What's being changed is how those powers are operated. No new powers are being granted.
Why is Sajid Javid not fancied in the next Tory leader market?
Currently Sunak is at ~3.4 and Truss at ~5 on Betfair, but Javid is at ~23.
This surprises me. Javid is personable, media-friendly, and vastly experienced. He does well enough in the ConHome members' survey, albeit nowhere near Truss levels, and pretty well in the YouGov rankings of the most popular Conservative politicians (5th place behind Sunak, Johnson, May and Davidson).
At these odds, Javid strikes me as worth a modest punt.
He is losing potential MP support, particularly after the Plan B business. Aside from the William Wragg call to resign, Greg Clark's question has stuck with me. Javid gave assurances to him and others that further restrictions would not be considered unless hospitalisations took a worrying turn; they have't yet here we are. Javid has lost trust.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
The problem with this reasoning, is we can look at the cases to hospitalisation rate a month ago in SA, when Omicron did not exitst and do the same now when Omicron is 85% or so of cases in SA, the ratio is very very different and as there has not been much change in the amount of Vaccination/prio-infection over the last month, there must be another reason.
Outside SA we can also look to Norway. if you what to panic look here:
Norway was affected early with Omicron where one party had 120 people affected and it has grown a lot since then. almost all the cases in Norway will now be Omicron, over 5,000 daily cases in a small nation, over 3 times more than any of there previous peaks, but still no big surge in hospitalisation.
Omicron is milled, was a theory based on anecdotes, now however the evidence has staked up it is miled.
Places like Downing Street being exempt is perfectly logical and unsurprising, as in at times of crisis you are going to need to gather all those people together for "work".....however that doesn't mean you take the piss and have a knees up.
Its a bit like the plod being able to speed under certain circumstances, but you don't expect them to just take the plod car out for a speed down the motorway at 100mph and doing doughnuts in the car park of Asda.
This section applies to any house, building or other premises being property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Crown or of the Duchy of Lancaster, or belonging to the Duchy of Cornwall, or belonging to a government department, or held in trust for Her Majesty for purposes of a government department. (2)In relation to any such property, the appropriate authority may agree with— (a)the council of the county, or (b)the local authority of the district,in which the property is situated that any relevant provision of this Act specified in the agreement shall apply to the property ; and, while the agreement is in force, that provision shall apply to that property accordingly, subject to the terms of the agreement. (3)Any such agreement may contain such consequential and incidental provisions (including, with the approval of the Treasury, provisions of a financial character) as appear to the appropriate authority to be necessary or equitable. (4)In this section, “the appropriate authority” means— (a)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Crown, the Crown Estate Commissioners or other government department having the management of the property ; (b)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Duchy of Lancaster, the Chancellor of the Duchy ; (c)in the case of property belonging to the Duchy of Cornwall, such person as the Duke of Cornwall, or the possessor for the time being of the Duchy of Cornwall, appoints ; and (d)in the case of property belonging to a government department or held in trust for Her Majesty for purposes of a government department, that department ;and, if any question arises as to what authority is the appropriate authority in relation to any property, that question shall be referred to the treasury, whose decision shall be final. [F1(5)In this section “premises” does not include any vessel— (a)belonging to Her Majesty, or (b)under the command or charge of an officer holding Her Majesty's commission.] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1984/22/section/73
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
I like the gin and tonic analogy. Instead of debating whether the gin is 40% or 37.5%, the key question is whether there are 1, 2 or 10 Fever tree tonic waters in there.
The tonic water is a great metaphor in another way too, because there's only so much liquid you can drink before getting bloated and slowing down. Likewise only as many infections a population can get through before it starts to approach herd immunity again.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
And would perhaps approve of it if he had?
My best guess is that he would be opposed in general to the idea on principle for citizens born in the UK (who wouldn't?) but may think differently if it was someone who had recently entered the country.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
So glad I spoke out to appeal for your safe return.
If what you were saying was true then there would not be any such new powers being raised in the nationality and borders bill. Put the boot into Blair all you like - he's 15 years into the past. This is about this government, this home secretary and the new powers in this bill.
Me too.
There are no such new powers in the bill. That's the point.
What's being changed is how those powers are operated. No new powers are being granted.
It was always within the power of HMG to execute people (until 1998). But how that power is operated has changed quite a lot ...
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
Harsh
Failing to win a majority against a tired and unpopular government, losing an historic referendum and then sloping off to dodgeville to have his pockets filled by some of the country’s shonkiest businessmen?
David Cameron flipped over 100 seats in one election and is the only reason the Tories are in Government today
You are right but not for the reason you think. Sorry to go all HYUFD on you but without Cameron’s promise to hold the referendum then yes, the Tories would not be in government, that much is clear.
But UKIP polled big in the 15 GE. Does this theory rest on the assumption they'd have polled much bigger without the Ref promise from DC?
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Yes, I saw that. Worth keeping an eye on, but genuinely too early to say whether it’s peaking there.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
And would perhaps approve of it if he had?
My best guess is that he would be opposed in general to the idea on principle for citizens born in the UK (who wouldn't?) but may think differently if it was someone who had recently entered the country.
Who wouldn't? Half or more of the posters on here in the case of Shamima Begum.
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
I said a couple of months ago that I thought all the criticism of Starmer was misplaced and that I could see him winning a majority. Now admittedly he is currently lucky in his opponent but luck is not enough. He has to make sure he and the Labour party are seen as fit for Government where clearly Johnson is not. I think he is doing that. Still probably not able to vote for him myself as a matter of principle but I certainly don't now fear a Labour Government in the way I do a continuation of Johnson in power.
The next election will be very different to 2019.
With this one line you have summarised the paradigm shift we are witnessing. Fear is a powerful weapon in politics, people so often vote for what they're least afraid of. The Johnson government is making itself so toxic that its removal is becoming an election goal for a lot of people.
Once you get to that stage it almost doesn't matter what the opposition does as long as they are seen as the least worst option. So forget HYUFDian protests about how BJ is a winner in the same red wall seats which he says can be ignored.
WAS a winner. Now a negative repelling factor. Why do you think Dishi is spending so much time in red wall seats to talk up the extra cash coming their way...?
Interesting observation on a thread on the spread... https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157773464125446 The UK is sequencing between 5000 and 8000 viruses everyday. Although turnaround times are fast, necessary processing delays permit a view that's basically lagged by ~7 days. Today, I have a strong view of Dec 1 data in @GISAID, but Dec 2 has much less data available to me. 3/21
Basic maths on the relative spread of Delta and Omicron taking 6% Omicron rate at the moment and assuming Omicron is trebling week on week (quite a modest assessment) and Delta is receding by 10% each week, which the likely stability of the 5/12 and 6/12 by sample date figures already seem to suggest:
The Omicron whump maybe comes just after Christmas, again.
At some point, of course, Omicron breaks the exponent and things bend down, but 250k cases per day is not an extreme outcome for an immune busting event.
If I were the government, with one eye on the NHS, I'd be asking the unvaccinated to pretty much shield within the next few days, or else everyone will be locked down by New Year.
Asking the unvaccinated to shield (as if they gave a toss about themselves or anyone else) probably wouldn't do much to hinder the spread of Omicron, because there is so much potential for immune escape among the vaccinated. It would probably halve the load on the hospitals - though they'd have to carry on shielding for the duration of the wave, not just for "the next few days". But halving the load on the hospitals would be worth only 2 or 3 days delay given the growth rate. Unless Omicron miraculously turns out to much milder - meaning a factor of 10 or something - I think we're all going to be in lockdown soon, regardless of what other measures are attempted.
(Starting) within the next few days not for the next few days.
Essentially, be ready for cases to get 500% or more higher than now, and for the main rise to hit from nowhere within 7-14 days.
What you want to prevent is Hospitalisations going 5x higher than now - still a tad below the January peak, but NHS has a worse start point. If you can make the crest of the main wave rebuild Omicron herd immunity in the fully immunised, boosted elderly, and perhaps only double the Hospitalisations, you've won, and the fact Omicron will target people that Delta doesn't touch is helpful in this regard.
The worst aspect of Omicron is the likely rapidity of the wave onset once critical mass is reached, if you don't get ahead of that, and protect the vulnerable, you simply won't have time to prevent the worst of it.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
You might ask yourself why she is seeking to make those powers so much easier to exercise.
My guess is that it touches upon something that Cyclefree mentioned in her OP, the court case on notifications and putting a note on the file.
Let's say a terrorist like Begum goes to Afghanistan. They can't be notified as we don't have their current address in Afghanistan.
It would make sense to put a note on the file for them, then if they try to return that note is activated and they can appeal like Begum is doing if necessary.
If you can't do that, and you can't notify them but you need to do so, then it becomes impossible to act.
Edit: And I notice a following tweet pointing out that following the law even at Windsor was good enough for HMtQ at PP's funeral.
HMQ would make a point of following that law even if it did not apply.
See not jumping the queue for a jab.....
At her age? What queue?
If you remember plenty of people got jabbed before Liz, if I remember correctly, wasn't until January. That was a month after the first shots. I doubt anybody (other than the most hardcore Republicans) would have objected to her getting it straight away.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
And would perhaps approve of it if he had?
My best guess is that he would be opposed in general to the idea on principle for citizens born in the UK (who wouldn't?) but may think differently if it was someone who had recently entered the country.
Who wouldn't? Half or more of the posters on here in the case of Shamima Begum.
Forgive me - I haven't been following the Begum story, but wasn't she born in the UK and if so would this new Bill actually apply to her?
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
I like the gin and tonic analogy. Instead of debating whether the gin is 40% or 37.5%, the key question is whether there are 1, 2 or 10 Fever tree tonic waters in there.
The tonic water is a great metaphor in another way too, because there's only so much liquid you can drink before getting bloated and slowing down. Likewise only as many infections a population can get through before it starts to approach herd immunity again.
Trigger warning for @SandyRentool on the Fever Tree tonic. Tesco value only for the PB Salt of the Earth Northerners.
Seems the Tories have broken their streak. A gain in Torridge from a disqualified Independent. And a hold in Tonbridge.
Big if true.
Indeed. Each one is utterly useless in itself. Local factors, candidates, etc., etc. But. Aggregated over a number of weeks they give a pretty accurate picture of what is going on. Particularly at regional level, probably better than opinion polls with tiny sub-samples.
Edit: And I notice a following tweet pointing out that following the law even at Windsor was good enough for HMtQ at PP's funeral.
HMQ would make a point of following that law even if it did not apply.
See not jumping the queue for a jab.....
At her age? What queue?
If you remember plenty of people got jabbed before Liz, if I remember correctly, wasn't until January. I doubt anybody (other than the most hardcore Republicans) would have objected to her getting it straight away.
I'm a hardcore Republican and I'd have had no issue.
Heck, my grandparents were jabbed in December and they're younger than the Queen.
Actually given her age what is weird is how LATE she was jabbed, not how early.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Yes, I saw that. Worth keeping an eye on, but genuinely too early to say whether it’s peaking there.
If we are doubling every 1.6 days, then by this time next week we will be expecting 200k+ cases/day. Got to hope that's an increasing proportion of people who get mild symptoms.
Edit: And I notice a following tweet pointing out that following the law even at Windsor was good enough for HMtQ at PP's funeral.
HMQ would make a point of following that law even if it did not apply.
See not jumping the queue for a jab.....
At her age? What queue?
If you remember plenty of people got jabbed before Liz, if I remember correctly, wasn't until January. I doubt anybody (other than the most hardcore Republicans) would have objected to her getting it straight away.
I'm a hardcore Republican and I'd have had no issue.
Heck, my grandparents were jabbed in December and they're younger than the Queen.
Actually given her age what is weird is how LATE she was jabbed, not how early.
I presume a combination of they locked themselves away and probably not wanting to be seen to be getting any special treatment.
Thanks Cyclefree for another superb piece. I always read them even if I do not always comment.
May I ask the PB Brains Trust for clarification in respect of two related questions?
First, Mrs PtP was born in the UK of Canadian parents. The family moved back to Canada when she was eight and she was educated there until she was sixteen. Thereafter she resided at various times in the USA and France, but mostly in the UK where she now lives with me. (Lucky girl, eh?) She has dual citizenship, Canada/UK - and a passport from both countries. Is she affected by this damn legislation?
Secondly, Brexit caused me to encourage both my children to avail themselves of the Irish passport to which they are entitled by virtue of their grandmother's country of origin. Again, could they now be deprived of UK citizenship?
I know it is vanishly unlikely that any of these would be victimised by the Home Office but the mere fact that in theory they could is a sorry indictment of where our politicians (both sides of the House) have led us.
I thank you all in advance for your assistance.
if Cyclefree is correct, and that the government could possibly render people stateless then the people under most threat are those like me and millions of others who have no state rights outside the UK whatever. But, while I don't like the legislation, I think Cyclefree is exaggerating.
I think we need to bear in mind that there is not much evidence that holders of Canadian, UK and Irish passports will be deprived of the UK one unless they engage in acts which amount to treason. (And all cases will continue to be subject to the right of appeal, including the SC.) If there is, PBers have singularly failed to find it.
Yes, it is a slippery slope. Like, say the slippery slope whereby government could increase income tax to 120% on all income, or petrol to £1000 a litre to take effect immediately without a commons vote.
There is no harm in the principle that citizenship confers duties as well as rights.
Thanks Algakirk, and all those who answered my questions.
I certainly agree with your last sentence, and so would Mrs PtP who has made the same point to me many times.
I will pass on the replies to her. Perhaps she is touchier on the subject than most because she is half Jewish and the abuse of citizenship legislation resonates with her as a consequence.
Although I take your point(s), I am more troubled by the very real possibility of abuse of citiznship laws than the imposition of absurd rates of taxation, which would be impractical as well as daft.
The problem with trying to be relaxed about the legislation is what the powers allow and what they mean. Citizenship ceases to be a right and becomes a favour. Whether or not our citizenship continues is entirely at the whim of the system. Even if a malevolent lunatic like Priti Vacant isn't personally removing your citizenship, the system has the ability to do so.
We had this same bullshit with windrush. Examples of British citizens being marooned abroad with no rights and no appeal against a faceless "computer says no" system which has decided they no longer exist. Until one day there is a "whoops lets check this" from the Home Office and ah there you are, sorry we have left you homeless in Ghana for 2 years and destroyed your relationship with your children who think you have abandonded them.
The legislation is *wrong*. We're back to basic morality again.
Except you're full of crap.
Citizenship doesn't cease to be anything. The system doesn't gain powers. The system ALREADY HAS those powers and you voted for the party that gave those powers to the system when Blair did it.
I agree it's a basic morality question and it's one that's been flunked from Blair onwards. But you keep blaming "Priti Vacant" for it all you like.
You might ask yourself why she is seeking to make those powers so much easier to exercise.
My guess is that it touches upon something that Cyclefree mentioned in her OP, the court case on notifications and putting a note on the file.
Let's say a terrorist like Begum goes to Afghanistan. They can't be notified as we don't have their current address in Afghanistan.
It would make sense to put a note on the file for them, then if they try to return that note is activated and they can appeal like Begum is doing if necessary.
If you can't do that, and you can't notify them but you need to do so, then it becomes impossible to act.
All they need to do is to put up a page on the Government website "Notices to people to s*d off for good". Modern equivalent of the London Gazette. I can't see why this concealment is seen as good enough.
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
I said a couple of months ago that I thought all the criticism of Starmer was misplaced and that I could see him winning a majority. Now admittedly he is currently lucky in his opponent but luck is not enough. He has to make sure he and the Labour party are seen as fit for Government where clearly Johnson is not. I think he is doing that. Still probably not able to vote for him myself as a matter of principle but I certainly don't now fear a Labour Government in the way I do a continuation of Johnson in power.
The next election will be very different to 2019.
With this one line you have summarised the paradigm shift we are witnessing. Fear is a powerful weapon in politics, people so often vote for what they're least afraid of. The Johnson government is making itself so toxic that its removal is becoming an election goal for a lot of people.
Once you get to that stage it almost doesn't matter what the opposition does as long as they are seen as the least worst option. So forget HYUFDian protests about how BJ is a winner in the same red wall seats which he says can be ignored.
WAS a winner. Now a negative repelling factor. Why do you think Dishi is spending so much time in red wall seats to talk up the extra cash coming their way...?
Well. In which case it is up to folk to actually vote them out then isn't it? Rather than caveating. I fear we may be in a 1992 situation next time, where voters give them one last chance. Then almost immediately regret it.
The Secret Barrister thinks it is trying to get Boris off on a fabricated technicality.
I'm inclined to think it is another faceplant because they are prats.
Labour will be delighted if the PM gets off using the law does not apply to me and my mates as an excuse. Far better for them than his resigning or facing a censure of some kind.
Seems the Tories have broken their streak. A gain in Torridge from a disqualified Independent. And a hold in Tonbridge.
Big if true.
Indeed. Each one is utterly useless in itself. Local factors, candidates, etc., etc. But. Aggregated over a number of weeks they give a pretty accurate picture of what is going on. Particularly at regional level, probably better than opinion polls with tiny sub-samples.
Not sure. Independents are often Tories who have [edit] been kicked out of/resigned from the party wqhip, like that chap in Fort W and Lochaber was for a time. Or can't get on personally with the current Tory colleagues. So replacement of Independent with Tory doesn't mean much unless one inquires.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
I like the gin and tonic analogy. Instead of debating whether the gin is 40% or 37.5%, the key question is whether there are 1, 2 or 10 Fever tree tonic waters in there.
The tonic water is a great metaphor in another way too, because there's only so much liquid you can drink before getting bloated and slowing down. Likewise only as many infections a population can get through before it starts to approach herd immunity again.
Yes it’s a good analogy
But you also have to factor in how fast you drink - the speed of the variant’s spread, the doubling.
Omicron’s doubling speed is eye watering, so even though we are drinking “weaker” gin and tonics, with more liquid, we are sinking them like a Downing Street staffer
Eventually, as you say, our bladders will protest and say no more but by then we might have fallen on Carrie’s dog and vomited on the PM
ie the wave will have crushed the NHS
Relatedly
“Scotland facing "tsunami" of Omicron cases, with the variant likely to replace Delta as the dominant form of the virus within days, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warns”
I see weirdo and bully John Bercow was on GMB sticking the boot in to Boris this morning... If people like Bercow start appearing regularly to stick the boot in that could give Boris a bit of a repreieve with a lot of Con 2019 voters.
If it all starts looking like an orchestrated attack by the Forces Of Remainistan a lot of Con 2019 voters will hold their nose and start to rally round...
It seems remarkable that the day after tomorrow is only the 2nd anniversary of the last election.
So there's quite a lot of time left, assuming BJ is dumped PDQ.
And yes, we still need a Parliamentary into John Bercow, his alleged bullying activities, and his definite abuse-of-position covering up activities.
I think the Tories will give Boris another 6-12 months (and Boris won't want to go before be's beaten Theresa May's tenure of 3 years 11 days lol)
I doubt Sunak, Truss, etc would want to take over while Covid is blowing up.
What may happen is something like Blair in 2006 where Boris is forced to give an undertaking that he's not going to fight the next election and then a transition takes place next summer/autumn. I think something like that is more likely here than a brutal Thatcher/May type end for Johnson.
I hope they are more ruthless than that.
Boris has shat the bed and is currently smearing the shit over everyone in sight, including the reputation of the party.
Needs to be put out of his misery.
I’m hoping for the letters to be announced on Tuesday - which will give the Tory resistance all of Christmas and new year to get the no confidence votes ready for the first day parliament gets back.
And Boris will spend Xmas and new year with every piece of plotting being endlessly reported upon
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Could be behaviour change. Humans are very adaptable. If I were there I certainly would be assessing what I choose to do extremely carefully.
Cuts both ways, though. I once complained about the creaky, shaky and barely functional lifts in the Commons, and was told that as it's Crown property they are exempt from normal regulations.
The Secret Barrister thinks it is trying to get Boris off on a fabricated technicality.
I'm inclined to think it is another faceplant because they are prats.
Labour will be delighted if the PM gets off using the law does not apply to me and my mates as an excuse. Far better for them than his resigning or facing a censure of some kind.
Would they be that stupid?
Great Jumping Jolyon would jump on that for a JR or High Court Declaration, complete with Kimono and Katana.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Yes, I saw that. Worth keeping an eye on, but genuinely too early to say whether it’s peaking there.
If we are doubling every 1.6 days, then by this time next week we will be expecting 200k+ cases/day. Got to hope that's an increasing proportion of people who get mild symptoms.
One of the unanswered questions I have is if the number of people in this country who have already had Covid gives us an additional level of protection that may not be available in others? If not against infection, then against serious illness.
Cuts both ways, though. I once complained about the creaky, shaky and barely functional lifts in the Commons, and was told that as it's Crown property they are exempt from normal regulations.
After that, I walked upstairs...
Refurb cost already gone from £4bn to £12bn, will the final cost be over or under £20bn? That is £3m per MP, for that I hope they actually put in enough seats this time so some don't have to stand.
Cuts both ways, though. I once complained about the creaky, shaky and barely functional lifts in the Commons, and was told that as it's Crown property they are exempt from normal regulations.
After that, I walked upstairs...
It's probably powered by a dog-wheel (see National Trust Spit Turners) and you should have rescued the dog.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Yes, I saw that. Worth keeping an eye on, but genuinely too early to say whether it’s peaking there.
If we are doubling every 1.6 days, then by this time next week we will be expecting 200k+ cases/day. Got to hope that's an increasing proportion of people who get mild symptoms.
Yup. We know Omicron is more transmissible and less susceptible to neutralisation with current vaccines. In the other hand it may be less virulent in its effects. Overall the prospects aren't looking good.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
The problem with this reasoning, is we can look at the cases to hospitalisation rate a month ago in SA, when Omicron did not exitst and do the same now when Omicron is 85% or so of cases in SA, the ratio is very very different and as there has not been much change in the amount of Vaccination/prio-infection over the last month, there must be another reason.
Outside SA we can also look to Norway. if you what to panic look here:
Norway was affected early with Omicron where one party had 120 people affected and it has grown a lot since then. almost all the cases in Norway will now be Omicron, over 5,000 daily cases in a small nation, over 3 times more than any of there previous peaks, but still no big surge in hospitalisation.
Omicron is milled, was a theory based on anecdotes, now however the evidence has staked up it is miled.
I hope you’re right. Tho two days ago Norway recorded its second worst day of Covid deaths, ever
Ms Sturgeon outlines new rules around self-isolating. She says given that Omicron is becoming dominant, the rules must change.
From tomorrow, the advice is that all household contacts of any confirmed Covid case should isolate for 10 days regardless of vaccination status - even if they initially get a negative PCR test.
Non-household contacts should isolate pending a PCR result. If it is negative, they can leave isolation at this point as long as they are double vaccinated.
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
The first minister says there are now 110 confirmed cases of Omicron.
Ten days ago there were nine, she says.
The first minister says Omicron is rising exponentially - the fastest exponential growth we have seen in the pandemic so far and says the variant is doubling every two and three days and is closer to two.
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
I said a couple of months ago that I thought all the criticism of Starmer was misplaced and that I could see him winning a majority. Now admittedly he is currently lucky in his opponent but luck is not enough. He has to make sure he and the Labour party are seen as fit for Government where clearly Johnson is not. I think he is doing that. Still probably not able to vote for him myself as a matter of principle but I certainly don't now fear a Labour Government in the way I do a continuation of Johnson in power.
The next election will be very different to 2019.
The test, though, will be how many people move from "I wouldn't mind too much if people voted Labour" to actually voting Labour. If there are lots of people in your position, it will be like the Lincoln Project almost was in the US - principled, admirable, but nearly not achieving the objective of actually defeating Trump.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
The problem with this reasoning, is we can look at the cases to hospitalisation rate a month ago in SA, when Omicron did not exitst and do the same now when Omicron is 85% or so of cases in SA, the ratio is very very different and as there has not been much change in the amount of Vaccination/prio-infection over the last month, there must be another reason.
Outside SA we can also look to Norway. if you what to panic look here:
Norway was affected early with Omicron where one party had 120 people affected and it has grown a lot since then. almost all the cases in Norway will now be Omicron, over 5,000 daily cases in a small nation, over 3 times more than any of there previous peaks, but still no big surge in hospitalisation.
Omicron is milled, was a theory based on anecdotes, now however the evidence has staked up it is miled.
I hope you’re right. Tho two days ago Norway recorded its second worst day of Covid deaths, ever
But it is a tiny country with volatile stats
We were meant to be going to Norway next week returning just before Christmas. We cancelled a few days ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see Norway go on a red list. If it does and we had gone we would have been stuck in a quarantine hotel for Christmas.
Cuts both ways, though. I once complained about the creaky, shaky and barely functional lifts in the Commons, and was told that as it's Crown property they are exempt from normal regulations.
After that, I walked upstairs...
Refurb cost already gone from £4bn to £12bn, will the final cost be over or under £20bn? That is £3m per MP, for that I hope they actually put in enough seats this time so some don't have to stand.
That's where the rest of the bloody HS2 money went, then.
12-15bn on Stamp Duty break driving house prices. 8 bn more on HOC. X bn on tunnels for Nimbys.
If that is genuine then I think that is disgraceful. It using public money for political campaigning.
It's probably one of those "guerrilla" ads that people put up over the genuine ones. The current ones are, apparently:
Inversnaid by Gerald Manley Hopkins To Autumn by John Keats Beacon of Hope(for John La Rose) by Linton Kwesi Johnson Leaf by Seán Hewitt Hot Bright Visionary Flies by Sean Borodale Promise by Jackie Kay
Anecdote: Just had an interesting chat with my Brexiteer hairy-arsed window cleaner. Big Johnson fan. Or was.
He's just told me that he liked Johnson originally because he was "something different" but now thinks he's the most corrupt lying politician we have ever had. Also, he's livid about Plan B.
He'll never vote Tory while Johnson remains leader. Says all his mates agree. Bojo is done.
Not the Nationality & Borders bill then.
Well, he is a very low-information fellow. I very much doubt that he would have heard of it.
And would perhaps approve of it if he had?
My best guess is that he would be opposed in general to the idea on principle for citizens born in the UK (who wouldn't?) but may think differently if it was someone who had recently entered the country.
Who wouldn't? Half or more of the posters on here in the case of Shamima Begum.
Forgive me - I haven't been following the Begum story, but wasn't she born in the UK and if so would this new Bill actually apply to her?
It would yes. The Bill makes it easier to strip British citizens of their citizenship, wherever they are born. It doesn't extend the number of people who can be deprived of citizenship, it just removes further elements of due process. I am against the principle of stripping people of citizenship, full stop, regardless of the cause. I could tolerate an exception for those who first came to the UK as adults and have been citizens for say <5 years and have committed a crime like murder. Although on the slippery slope principle I'd rather there were no exceptions at all. My opposition rests on three arguments: 1. British citizens who do bad things are a British problem, not one we should foist on others; 2. Equality before the law: if two people are convicted of the same crime, they should receive the same punishment, it shouldn't vary depending on their parentage; 3. Politicians should not be pandering to a widespread and racist view that some British citizens are less British than others, rather they should be fighting against it and promoting a shared British identity based on equality.
He says: “I think I’m less clear on how we’re all getting on as a society than I was during the days when Thatcher was re-arranging Britain.” In a watershed moment on stage, he was complimentary about “Thatch” during his new show when it toured in 2019 (“I miss Mrs Thatcher, she was a woman of principle,” he said). He looks surprised that I’m surprised. “I always recognised she was a person of genuine principle,” he explains. “I always believed she was doing what she did because she believed it from the bottom of her heart. I hate what she did but I didn’t see her as personally reprehensible.”
Those days were relatively straightforward. “I regret the fracturing of the left of centre. When I was starting in comedy we thought economic issues were the primary business of the Left. While many of the identity debates going on now are important, in the extremes of the various identity groups – race, sexuality etc – there’s an intolerance: ‘If you’re not agreeing on my issue then you’re worthless.’ The internet has allowed radicalised minorities to own the debate.”
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Could be behaviour change. Humans are very adaptable. If I were there I certainly would be assessing what I choose to do extremely carefully.
As it happens, Dixie, I have just come back from there. Basic Covid measures are much more rigorously followed and enforced than they are here.
Keir Starmer really is turning into the David Cameron of Labour
I said a couple of months ago that I thought all the criticism of Starmer was misplaced and that I could see him winning a majority. Now admittedly he is currently lucky in his opponent but luck is not enough. He has to make sure he and the Labour party are seen as fit for Government where clearly Johnson is not. I think he is doing that. Still probably not able to vote for him myself as a matter of principle but I certainly don't now fear a Labour Government in the way I do a continuation of Johnson in power.
The next election will be very different to 2019.
The test, though, will be how many people move from "I wouldn't mind too much if people voted Labour" to actually voting Labour. If there are lots of people in your position, it will be like the Lincoln Project almost was in the US - principled, admirable, but nearly not achieving the objective of actually defeating Trump.
I'm a natural Conservative. I can't see any circumstances where I would vote Labour. However, I might not give my vote to the Tories any more due to a combination of Boris' behaviour and some of the Covid laws coming through now. Having said that although Starmer is boring, he is not frightening in the way that Corbyn would have been to me if he had won. I'm sure there are plenty of people who having voted for Boris in 2019 would go for a bit of boring Starmer at the next GE.
I think the Tories need to get rid of Boris ASAP and have a proper leadership election. They can pin all the blame on Boris and try and move on. I do think that the next election could be like 1992 - a good election to lose.
Starmer brings two things to the table that other potential Labour leaders don't have. He has a track record of managing a large organisation. He is bulletproof on crime with a career of locking people up. The last is a great frustration to Johnson who tries to push a Labour is weak on crime angle but isn't getting traction.
This, by the way, is the same SA boffin who first nailed the scary extra transmissibility of Omicron in SA. Many scoffed. He was right
“Trajectory of Omicron in the UK (doubling every 1.6 days) is outpacing earlier model projections for US Omicron cases (2.25-3.3 day doubling). Assumption is no changes in NPIs or behaviors.”
Just to correct one misapprehension: this Bill does give the Home Secretary new powers - to declare unlawful behaviour by the Home Office lawful retrospectively.
And she did so by inserting this change at the last possible minute thus avoiding any Parliamentary scrutiny before it passed the Commons.
Changing the law for the future is one thing. Changing it retrospectively is a step too far.
It effectively makes any appeal pointless. Because even if you win it, the government can turn round and nullify that decision. That is a very significant change for the worse.
And the fact that it has been done with little scrutiny adds insult to injury.
If that is genuine then I think that is disgraceful. It using public money for political campaigning.
It's probably one of those "guerrilla" ads that people put up over the genuine ones. The current ones are, apparently:
Inversnaid by Gerald Manley Hopkins To Autumn by John Keats Beacon of Hope(for John La Rose) by Linton Kwesi Johnson Leaf by Seán Hewitt Hot Bright Visionary Flies by Sean Borodale Promise by Jackie Kay
I think that's right. I'm sure TFL wouldn't have authorised it.
I'm pretty sure it's not a photoshop as a few people have claimed to have seen it on the tube this morning.
Looking at Sturgeon’s remarks, we are so going into lockdown. The only question is before-or-after Xmas
I said the other day that I thought Witty had pushed for a lot harder restrictions, clearly signally the just WFH order wasn't his decision and look at these scary graphs from SA.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
I like the gin and tonic analogy. Instead of debating whether the gin is 40% or 37.5%, the key question is whether there are 1, 2 or 10 Fever tree tonic waters in there.
The tonic water is a great metaphor in another way too, because there's only so much liquid you can drink before getting bloated and slowing down. Likewise only as many infections a population can get through before it starts to approach herd immunity again.
Yes it’s a good analogy
But you also have to factor in how fast you drink - the speed of the variant’s spread, the doubling.
Omicron’s doubling speed is eye watering, so even though we are drinking “weaker” gin and tonics, with more liquid, we are sinking them like a Downing Street staffer
Eventually, as you say, our bladders will protest and say no more but by then we might have fallen on Carrie’s dog and vomited on the PM
ie the wave will have crushed the NHS
Relatedly
“Scotland facing "tsunami" of Omicron cases, with the variant likely to replace Delta as the dominant form of the virus within days, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warns”
Yes that seems to be the afeared scenario. I've been making the same "its just maths" point in less colourful language for a while - a huge spike in infections coupled with a lower sickness rate still equals enough sick people to sink the NHS.
Point is that we still don't know. They needed until next week to model what it looks like. But restrictions have been thrown in at 5 minutes notice this week to try and distract people from BJ and his crimes.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Omicron estimated doubling time from confirmed cases data:
Nov 28th 0.73 Nov 29th 0.82 Nov 30th 1.06 Dec 1st 1.37 Dec 2nd 1.05 Dec 3rd 1.22 Dec 4th 1.36 Dec 5th 1.51 Dec 6th 1.69 Dec 7th 1.87 Dec 8th 1.95
Method used - Google sheets best fit exponential from UK confirmed cases Ln (2)/Exponent.
Starmer brings two things to the table that other potential Labour leaders don't have. He has a track record of managing a large organisation. He is bulletproof on crime with a career of locking people up. The last is a great frustration to Johnson who tries to push a Labour is weak on crime angle but isn't getting traction.
Although I agree he has a decent CV, being a former DPP doesn't make him "bulletproof" on crime. There will inevitably have been decisions not to prosecute which with hindsight look flawed, and failures to get convictions in that time. He's not some kind of lethal combination of Perry Mason and Batman - he was a broadly competent DPP.
Looking at Sturgeon’s remarks, we are so going into lockdown. The only question is before-or-after Xmas
I said the other day that I thought Witty had pushed for a lot harder restrictions, clearly signally the just WFH order wasn't his decision and look at these scary graphs from SA.
“Emergency Cobra Meeting”
“12:45 Gove to chair Cobra meeting on Covid with Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish first ministers
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished, and No 10 announced that Michael Gove, in his capacity as minister for intergovernmental relations, will chair a meeting of the government’s emergency Cobra meeting today to discuss Covid. The first ministers and deputy first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will participate.
I will post more from the lobby soon.“
The news has gotten worse. Plan C very soon? Early school closures? Then lockdown after Xmas
This, by the way, is the same SA boffin who first nailed the scary extra transmissibility of Omicron in SA. Many scoffed. He was right
“Trajectory of Omicron in the UK (doubling every 1.6 days) is outpacing earlier model projections for US Omicron cases (2.25-3.3 day doubling). Assumption is no changes in NPIs or behaviors.”
One of the troubles is that the current Omicron wave is still very much hidden underneath 40k of Delta cases a day, even though it is growing like the Wuhan wave. So by the time you see it case numbers are massive.
So, thinking about Leon's Downing Street party, it will proceed like the first moments of vomiting, dot.. dot.. pebbledash, or like a hardened alcoholic at the party - fine and coherent after 10, dead on the floor after 12.
Ms Sturgeon outlines new rules around self-isolating. She says given that Omicron is becoming dominant, the rules must change.
From tomorrow, the advice is that all household contacts of any confirmed Covid case should isolate for 10 days regardless of vaccination status - even if they initially get a negative PCR test.
Non-household contacts should isolate pending a PCR result. If it is negative, they can leave isolation at this point as long as they are double vaccinated.
Glad that wasn't the case at the weekend when my (now recovered) daughter tested positive. Getting released to once again go further outside than to my office was a Good Thing.
Edit: And I notice a following tweet pointing out that following the law even at Windsor was good enough for HMtQ at PP's funeral.
HMQ would make a point of following that law even if it did not apply.
See not jumping the queue for a jab.....
At her age? What queue?
If you remember plenty of people got jabbed before Liz, if I remember correctly, wasn't until January. I doubt anybody (other than the most hardcore Republicans) would have objected to her getting it straight away.
I'm a hardcore Republican and I'd have had no issue.
Heck, my grandparents were jabbed in December and they're younger than the Queen.
Actually given her age what is weird is how LATE she was jabbed, not how early.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
The problem with this reasoning, is we can look at the cases to hospitalisation rate a month ago in SA, when Omicron did not exitst and do the same now when Omicron is 85% or so of cases in SA, the ratio is very very different and as there has not been much change in the amount of Vaccination/prio-infection over the last month, there must be another reason.
Outside SA we can also look to Norway. if you what to panic look here:
Norway was affected early with Omicron where one party had 120 people affected and it has grown a lot since then. almost all the cases in Norway will now be Omicron, over 5,000 daily cases in a small nation, over 3 times more than any of there previous peaks, but still no big surge in hospitalisation.
Omicron is milled, was a theory based on anecdotes, now however the evidence has staked up it is miled.
I hope you’re right. Tho two days ago Norway recorded its second worst day of Covid deaths, ever
But it is a tiny country with volatile stats
Norway's rise is both shocking and reassuring.
Its a contrary with demographics closer to ours, than SA and with more testing than SA. it also got a very similar number of people vaccinated, so it is good to use as a insight in to what might happen here.
Cases per million in the last week have now overtaken the UK.
But before we all panic there week on week rises is 38% so not even close to the doubling every 1.6 days or 2 days or 3 days or whatever.
and bare in mind we have done a lot more booster jabs and have a lot more infection induced immunity.
Keep calm and keep an eye on Norway. (and Denmark)
Seems the Tories have broken their streak. A gain in Torridge from a disqualified Independent. And a hold in Tonbridge.
Big if true.
Indeed. Each one is utterly useless in itself. Local factors, candidates, etc., etc. But. Aggregated over a number of weeks they give a pretty accurate picture of what is going on. Particularly at regional level, probably better than opinion polls with tiny sub-samples.
Not sure. Independents are often Tories who have [edit] been kicked out of/resigned from the party wqhip, like that chap in Fort W and Lochaber was for a time. Or can't get on personally with the current Tory colleagues. So replacement of Independent with Tory doesn't mean much unless one inquires.
Which is why I say each Council by-election isn't of much value. But patterns emerge over months. Here are three from the past few.
1 There are eye watering swings against the Tories in many well-to-do suburban areas especially the Home Counties. When there is a clear challenger they are losing.
2 By contrast, in areas erroneously called the Red Wall it is mixed. Small swings, parity, still advancing in some, especially the Midlands.
3 The Greens put on huge surges in areas where they are second. LD still advancing. Labour not going forward much at all. Except as noted in 1 above when they can achieve some massive gains.
Overall, this points to be good for a government in the doldrums. They are losing support precisely where they can afford to, and holding it where they need it.
Having said that. Their performance has been on the slide since June, as per opinion polling. And that decline seems to be accelerating fast.
Edit: And I notice a following tweet pointing out that following the law even at Windsor was good enough for HMtQ at PP's funeral.
HMQ would make a point of following that law even if it did not apply.
See not jumping the queue for a jab.....
At her age? What queue?
If you remember plenty of people got jabbed before Liz, if I remember correctly, wasn't until January. I doubt anybody (other than the most hardcore Republicans) would have objected to her getting it straight away.
I'm a hardcore Republican and I'd have had no issue.
Heck, my grandparents were jabbed in December and they're younger than the Queen.
Actually given her age what is weird is how LATE she was jabbed, not how early.
Think we should use 'vaccinated' for the Queen.
Why, do you think anyone's confused about what it meant?
Looking at Sturgeon’s remarks, we are so going into lockdown. The only question is before-or-after Xmas
I said the other day that I thought Witty had pushed for a lot harder restrictions, clearly signally the just WFH order wasn't his decision and look at these scary graphs from SA.
“Emergency Cobra Meeting”
“12:45 Gove to chair Cobra meeting on Covid with Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish first ministers
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished, and No 10 announced that Michael Gove, in his capacity as minister for intergovernmental relations, will chair a meeting of the government’s emergency Cobra meeting today to discuss Covid. The first ministers and deputy first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will participate.
I will post more from the lobby soon.“
The news has gotten worse. Plan C very soon? Early school closures? Then lockdown after Xmas
I hope they don't close schools early. I've got a day off booked when the kids are all at school next week and I was hoping for a day of freedom! I would think they would need to close down other things first (e.g. theatres, cinemas etc.) before they do schools.
Looking at Sturgeon’s remarks, we are so going into lockdown. The only question is before-or-after Xmas
South Africa is not in lockdown and there is little pressure on their hospitals.
Only a few per cent of the South African population is over 65.
How can people post so much and know so pitifully little?
The SA Health Minister said this, do you know more than him?
I'm more of a dove on restrictions than Chris but he has a good point.
South Africa has different demography to the UK. What might be right for them may not be for us. That has nothing to do with what the SA health Minister does or doesn't know, does or doesn't say.
SA epidemiologist on Twitter saying her guess is Omicron is no worse and no better than Delta in severity, it is just encountering a lot more people with some immunity - from vax or prior infection - and these cases are likely milder, which “dilutes” the overall severity, as we perceive it
Down the thread someone makes an apt comparison.
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then a tin of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Delta
If you add a shot of gin to an empty glass, then two tins of Fever Tree tonic, that’s Omicron
The second drink is “weaker” because the gin is diluted more, but if you drink both just as fast, both will get you equally as tipsy
Whether the virus itself is intrinsically milder, or whether herd immunity is making it present as milder matters less than the fact that outcomes appear to be better than in the delta wave. Indeed, immunity conferring milder outcomes might be preferable to the virus itself being milder?
Not for the unvaxxed, semi vaxxed and seriously Co morbid. At the moment OMICRON THE OMG is doubling at an incredible rate of every 1.6 days in the UK. Anyone who can get this will get it asap
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
Omicron estimated doubling time from confirmed cases data:
Nov 28th 0.73 Nov 29th 0.82 Nov 30th 1.06 Dec 1st 1.37 Dec 2nd 1.05 Dec 3rd 1.22 Dec 4th 1.36 Dec 5th 1.51 Dec 6th 1.69 Dec 7th 1.87 Dec 8th 1.95
Method used - Google sheets best fit exponential from UK confirmed cases Ln (2)/Exponent.
Is that UK or SA? Or Denmark? Looks too fast to be SA
As Covid is a respiratory diesease the whole point of being in hosptal is to get oxygen, the vast majority of Covid positive admissions in SA are incidental admissions as most people there have Omicron, but it is not making them ill.
Comments
Edit: And I notice a following tweet pointing out that following the law even at Windsor was good enough for HMtQ at PP's funeral.
It will affect these people as bad as Delta, it seems, and there are still enough of them in the UK to cause a grievous wave
OTOH and for balance, several people are pointing to an odd tailing off in parts of Gauteng, it’s not exploding quite as expected, maybe even falling in places. Could be significant, could just be random/flawed data
🤷♂️
There are no such new powers in the bill. That's the point.
What's being changed is how those powers are operated. No new powers are being granted.
Outside SA we can also look to Norway. if you what to panic look here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/
Norway was affected early with Omicron where one party had 120 people affected and it has grown a lot since then. almost all the cases in Norway will now be Omicron, over 5,000 daily cases in a small nation, over 3 times more than any of there previous peaks, but still no big surge in hospitalisation.
Omicron is milled, was a theory based on anecdotes, now however the evidence has staked up it is miled.
Its a bit like the plod being able to speed under certain circumstances, but you don't expect them to just take the plod car out for a speed down the motorway at 100mph and doing doughnuts in the car park of Asda.
(2)In relation to any such property, the appropriate authority may agree with—
(a)the council of the county, or
(b)the local authority of the district,in which the property is situated that any relevant provision of this Act specified in the agreement shall apply to the property ; and, while the agreement is in force, that provision shall apply to that property accordingly, subject to the terms of the agreement.
(3)Any such agreement may contain such consequential and incidental provisions (including, with the approval of the Treasury, provisions of a financial character) as appear to the appropriate authority to be necessary or equitable.
(4)In this section, “the appropriate authority” means—
(a)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Crown, the Crown Estate Commissioners or other government department having the management of the property ;
(b)in the case of property belonging to Her Majesty in right of the Duchy of Lancaster, the Chancellor of the Duchy ;
(c)in the case of property belonging to the Duchy of Cornwall, such person as the Duke of Cornwall, or the possessor for the time being of the Duchy of Cornwall, appoints ; and
(d)in the case of property belonging to a government department or held in trust for Her Majesty for purposes of a government department, that department ;and, if any question arises as to what authority is the appropriate authority in relation to any property, that question shall be referred to the treasury, whose decision shall be final.
[F1(5)In this section “premises” does not include any vessel—
(a)belonging to Her Majesty, or
(b)under the command or charge of an officer holding Her Majesty's commission.]
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1984/22/section/73
The tonic water is a great metaphor in another way too, because there's only so much liquid you can drink before getting bloated and slowing down. Likewise only as many infections a population can get through before it starts to approach herd immunity again.
Once you get to that stage it almost doesn't matter what the opposition does as long as they are seen as the least worst option. So forget HYUFDian protests about how BJ is a winner in the same red wall seats which he says can be ignored.
WAS a winner. Now a negative repelling factor. Why do you think Dishi is spending so much time in red wall seats to talk up the extra cash coming their way...?
Essentially, be ready for cases to get 500% or more higher than now, and for the main rise to hit from nowhere within 7-14 days.
What you want to prevent is Hospitalisations going 5x higher than now - still a tad below the January peak, but NHS has a worse start point. If you can make the crest of the main wave rebuild Omicron herd immunity in the fully immunised, boosted elderly, and perhaps only double the Hospitalisations, you've won, and the fact Omicron will target people that Delta doesn't touch is helpful in this regard.
The worst aspect of Omicron is the likely rapidity of the wave onset once critical mass is reached, if you don't get ahead of that, and protect the vulnerable, you simply won't have time to prevent the worst of it.
Let's say a terrorist like Begum goes to Afghanistan. They can't be notified as we don't have their current address in Afghanistan.
It would make sense to put a note on the file for them, then if they try to return that note is activated and they can appeal like Begum is doing if necessary.
If you can't do that, and you can't notify them but you need to do so, then it becomes impossible to act.
Also on betting - I've doubled down on 'Lyin Bo Johnson' to still be PM at next year's party conf. Long at an average 1.7 now.
But. Aggregated over a number of weeks they give a pretty accurate picture of what is going on.
Particularly at regional level, probably better than opinion polls with tiny sub-samples.
Heck, my grandparents were jabbed in December and they're younger than the Queen.
Actually given her age what is weird is how LATE she was jabbed, not how early.
I'm inclined to think it is another faceplant because they are prats.
Rather than caveating. I fear we may be in a 1992 situation next time, where voters give them one last chance.
Then almost immediately regret it.
But you also have to factor in how fast you drink - the speed of the variant’s spread, the doubling.
Omicron’s doubling speed is eye watering, so even though we are drinking “weaker” gin and tonics, with more liquid, we are sinking them like a Downing Street staffer
Eventually, as you say, our bladders will protest and say no more but by then we might have fallen on Carrie’s dog and vomited on the PM
ie the wave will have crushed the NHS
Relatedly
“Scotland facing "tsunami" of Omicron cases, with the variant likely to replace Delta as the dominant form of the virus within days, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warns”
At this point they must be trying to throw the election, what has happened to comms at No 10?
And Boris will spend Xmas and new year with every piece of plotting being endlessly reported upon
After that, I walked upstairs...
However, trying to invoke that as a technicality to claim you never lied etc, you are just going to make the situation worse.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Great Jumping Jolyon would jump on that for a JR or High Court Declaration, complete with Kimono and Katana.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=ITA~DEU~GBR~FRA~BEL~NLD~ESP~PRT~DNK~IRL~AUT~NOR~SWE~CHE~FIN
Maybe the lawyers here should starting writing the Great Repeal Bill. Make it loooooong.
But it is a tiny country with volatile stats
From tomorrow, the advice is that all household contacts of any confirmed Covid case should isolate for 10 days regardless of vaccination status - even if they initially get a negative PCR test.
Non-household contacts should isolate pending a PCR result. If it is negative, they can leave isolation at this point as long as they are double vaccinated.
Ten days ago there were nine, she says.
The first minister says Omicron is rising exponentially - the fastest exponential growth we have seen in the pandemic so far and says the variant is doubling every two and three days and is closer to two.
I can’t think of a governing party who has installed a leader who has not at least held one of the great offices of state at some point previously.
12-15bn on Stamp Duty break driving house prices.
8 bn more on HOC.
X bn on tunnels for Nimbys.
Grrrr.
Inversnaid by Gerald Manley Hopkins
To Autumn by John Keats
Beacon of Hope(for John La Rose) by Linton Kwesi Johnson
Leaf by Seán Hewitt
Hot Bright Visionary Flies by Sean Borodale
Promise by Jackie Kay
I am against the principle of stripping people of citizenship, full stop, regardless of the cause. I could tolerate an exception for those who first came to the UK as adults and have been citizens for say <5 years and have committed a crime like murder. Although on the slippery slope principle I'd rather there were no exceptions at all. My opposition rests on three arguments:
1. British citizens who do bad things are a British problem, not one we should foist on others;
2. Equality before the law: if two people are convicted of the same crime, they should receive the same punishment, it shouldn't vary depending on their parentage;
3. Politicians should not be pandering to a widespread and racist view that some British citizens are less British than others, rather they should be fighting against it and promoting a shared British identity based on equality.
Those days were relatively straightforward. “I regret the fracturing of the left of centre. When I was starting in comedy we thought economic issues were the primary business of the Left. While many of the identity debates going on now are important, in the extremes of the various identity groups – race, sexuality etc – there’s an intolerance: ‘If you’re not agreeing on my issue then you’re worthless.’ The internet has allowed radicalised minorities to own the debate.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comedy/comedians/ben-elton-recognise-mrs-thatcher-woman-principle/
I think the Tories need to get rid of Boris ASAP and have a proper leadership election. They can pin all the blame on Boris and try and move on. I do think that the next election could be like 1992 - a good election to lose.
This, by the way, is the same SA boffin who first nailed the scary extra transmissibility of Omicron in SA. Many scoffed. He was right
“Trajectory of Omicron in the UK (doubling every 1.6 days) is outpacing earlier model projections for US Omicron cases (2.25-3.3 day doubling). Assumption is no changes in NPIs or behaviors.”
https://twitter.com/jpweiland/status/1468713988762578946?s=21
And she did so by inserting this change at the last possible minute thus avoiding any Parliamentary scrutiny before it passed the Commons.
Changing the law for the future is one thing. Changing it retrospectively is a step too far.
It effectively makes any appeal pointless. Because even if you win it, the government can turn round and nullify that decision. That is a very significant change for the worse.
And the fact that it has been done with little scrutiny adds insult to injury.
This is government by spite.
I'm pretty sure it's not a photoshop as a few people have claimed to have seen it on the tube this morning.
Point is that we still don't know. They needed until next week to model what it looks like. But restrictions have been thrown in at 5 minutes notice this week to try and distract people from BJ and his crimes.
She says any measures will cause social and economic harms but she says early intervention is the best way of acting proportionately.
She adds that she cannot rule out further measures.
Nov 28th 0.73
Nov 29th 0.82
Nov 30th 1.06
Dec 1st 1.37
Dec 2nd 1.05
Dec 3rd 1.22
Dec 4th 1.36
Dec 5th 1.51
Dec 6th 1.69
Dec 7th 1.87
Dec 8th 1.95
Method used - Google sheets best fit exponential from UK confirmed cases
Ln (2)/Exponent.
“12:45
Gove to chair Cobra meeting on Covid with Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish first ministers
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished, and No 10 announced that Michael Gove, in his capacity as minister for intergovernmental relations, will chair a meeting of the government’s emergency Cobra meeting today to discuss Covid. The first ministers and deputy first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will participate.
I will post more from the lobby soon.“
The news has gotten worse. Plan C very soon? Early school closures? Then lockdown after Xmas
How can people post so much and know so pitifully little?
So, thinking about Leon's Downing Street party, it will proceed like the first moments of vomiting, dot.. dot.. pebbledash, or like a hardened alcoholic at the party - fine and coherent after 10, dead on the floor after 12.
"It looks like it is purely because of the numbers rather than as a result of any severity of the variant itself."
Its a contrary with demographics closer to ours, than SA and with more testing than SA. it also got a very similar number of people vaccinated, so it is good to use as a insight in to what might happen here.
Cases per million in the last week have now overtaken the UK.
But before we all panic there week on week rises is 38% so not even close to the doubling every 1.6 days or 2 days or 3 days or whatever.
and bare in mind we have done a lot more booster jabs and have a lot more infection induced immunity.
Keep calm and keep an eye on Norway. (and Denmark)
1 There are eye watering swings against the Tories in many well-to-do suburban areas especially the Home Counties. When there is a clear challenger they are losing.
2 By contrast, in areas erroneously called the Red Wall it is mixed. Small swings, parity, still advancing in some, especially the Midlands.
3 The Greens put on huge surges in areas where they are second. LD still advancing. Labour not going forward much at all. Except as noted in 1 above when they can achieve some massive gains.
Overall, this points to be good for a government in the doldrums. They are losing support precisely where they can afford to, and holding it where they need it.
Having said that. Their performance has been on the slide since June, as per opinion polling. And that decline seems to be accelerating fast.
The rise in hospitalisations is purely because there is a rise in hospitalisations
The fact I am drunk is because I have drunk many drinks, and has nothing to do with the brand of rum
South Africa has different demography to the UK. What might be right for them may not be for us. That has nothing to do with what the SA health Minister does or doesn't know, does or doesn't say.
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
As Covid is a respiratory diesease the whole point of being in hosptal is to get oxygen, the vast majority of Covid positive admissions in SA are incidental admissions as most people there have Omicron, but it is not making them ill.